Government smears landmark agreement with false statements

The provincial government has tarnished the 25th anniversary of the Atlantic Accord by issuing a news release which contains false information:

In 2005, the Williams Government improved upon the benefits in the original Atlantic Accord by negotiating a new deal that retained a greater share of offshore revenues for the province. The new revenue-sharing arrangement reached between Premier Danny Williams and then Prime Minister Paul Martin resulted in Newfoundland and Labrador receiving 100 per cent of its offshore revenues for the first time, free from any clawbacks while an equalization-receiving province. he 2005 Accord enabled Newfoundland and Labrador to truly be the “principal beneficiary” of the petroleum resources off its shores. …[Emphasis added]

“The original Atlantic Accord has greatly assisted in the pursuit of long-term economic prosperity and self-reliance for Newfoundland and Labrador, and these benefits were secured and improved in 2005 when Premier Williams succeeded in convincing the Federal Government of the inequity Newfoundland and Labrador had endured for years in not receiving the full benefit of the exploitation of its offshore resources,” said Acting Premier Dunderdale.

All of that is completely false.

Provincial government officials should know it is utterly untrue false because they link to the text of the 2005 deal in the news release.  Here’s what the 2005 agreement says in plain English:

2. This document reflects an understanding between the Government of Canada and the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador that:

• Newfoundland and Labrador already receives and will continue to receive 100 per cent of offshore resource revenues as if these resources were on land; [Emphasis added]

There were no changes to revenue-sharing spelled out in the 1985 Accord. Under the 1985 agreement the provincial government alone sets and receives all offshore oil government royalties. The federal government collects only what it would from any other industry in the way of business and personal taxes.  

Despite ludicrous claims at the time it was signed, the 2005 agreement delivered nothing more than a single $2.0 billion payment to the provincial government. 

That’s it.

The Equalization formula continued to work as it is supposed to work.  As forecast in 2005, the provincial stopped qualifying for Equalization payments in 2009. 

When that happened, the “clawback” described in today’s news release didn’t hit zero. Rather it became a full  - 100% - clawback of all offshore revenues.

The 2005 made no changes to any of the provisions of the 1985 agreement.

The 1985 Accord alone forms the basis for the current offshore oil industry and for current provincial prosperity. 

Here’s the way your humble e-scribbler laid it out in 2004/2005:

First, [under what became the 1985 Accord] the provincial government would gain the right to manage the offshore jointly with the federal government, particularly with respect to setting the mode of production. This had significant implications for local benefits, as evident from construction of the gravity-based system (GBS) for Hibernia.

Second, the provincial government gained the right to collect revenues from the resources as if they were on land. This established that the provincial government would determine its own revenues to be collected from offshore oil and gas development and production just as a province like Alberta is able to do. These revenues would, de facto, be treated as “own source” revenues like income tax, sales tax and other similar levies.

Third, the province as a whole would benefit from the development of local jobs. Mulroney committed that oil-related infrastructure would be sited in the province, where possible. This was no small matter. Mulroney’s letter [Brian Mulroney to Brian Peckford, 1984] contains strong language and conveys a deliberate intent on the part of the future Prime Minister to provide this province with significant job and business benefits. “Local job creation and labour development would be of paramount concern.”

Fourth, the province would benefit since the provincial government would not see a dollar-for-dollar loss of Equalization payments that would naturally result from growth in the government’s own-source revenues. The Government of Newfoundland and Labrador would receive all of its own-source revenue, potentially a portion of any federal shares in the offshore, and as well, additional payments to offset any losses from Equalization.

The same general approach was taken by the Liberal administrations which preceded Mr. Mulroney. For example, the comprehensive proposal made by the Government of Canada in 1982 stated that “it is recognized that Newfoundland should enjoy the major share of the revenue that offshore resources are expected to generate…” and that “the people of the province would realize the greatest and the most direct benefits from the development of offshore oil and gas resources in terms of growth and income, jobs, opportunities for new businesses, and significant new provincial government revenues.”

The federal Liberal proposal on revenue sharing was linked inextricably to the overall performance of the provincial economy and hence may be taken as further evidence of the extent to which the federal government before 1984 viewed the benefits from the offshore to this province to be greater than just the sums flowing to the provincial government’s treasury.

While local job benefits merited two short paragraphs in the original Mulroney letter, both the Accord itself and the enabling legislation provide an elaborate structure aimed at managing local benefits. No one can underestimate the value of local industrial benefits to the province; nor can anyone easily dismiss the contention that the architects of the Atlantic Accord saw local industrial development as a significant factor in establishing this province as the principal beneficiary of offshore oil and gas development. [Paragraphing altered to improve readability]

-srbp-

Customer Service: Tammany Style

The thrust of comments made on CBC Radio this morning by the guy responsible for clearing the snow:

**  Yeah we buried the taxpayer’s driveway and then didn’t do anything about it for three days after the storm even after he called the right number and pointed out our mistake like we told him he should.

We showed up three days later by which time he’d dug himself out and the snow had melted a bit.

There was no real problem by then.

These things happen.

We have a gajillion miles of streets and if we responded to just one percent of the calls about driveways we’d never get anything done.

Now this driveway was hard to see, so maybe – and only maybe – if the taxpayer had taken it on himself at his own expense to mark the driveway somehow we might have avoided the problem.  There’s no guarantee though because we keep shifting the drivers around and they don’t always know the neighbourhoods.  **

Or words to that effect.

Absolutely amazing.

-srbp-

Up the Creek with Jackman and Rideout

And neither had a paddle to get anyone out of the mess which is the fishery in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Latest word is the Sullivan family – close Tory ties there or what? – cannot do any better a job running the fish plants they got from the smash-up of Fishery Products International than the crowd who ran FPI.

There is nothing new in any of the latest demands.  The Sullivans want to ship yellow-tail flounder to China because it can’t be processed profitably in this province. 

Mind you this is exactly what FPI did to subsidise the plants it used to own. Last going off, the fisheries minister of the day undertook a prosecution of FPI under the fish export regulations which  - like so much of government policy toward FPI - certainly had the stink of being politically-motivated and insubstantial all over it. 

Rather than bother commenting on the current demand from the company, let’s just review some of the recent history on this via some old posts. 

What you’ll quickly discover is that the current problems are essentially the same as the old ones.  In other words, fish minister Clyde Jackman is dead wrong if he thinks the problems fish minister Tom Rideout faced were different from the ones Jackman is facing today. 

You’ll also find their solutions today are going to look all too familiar as well. They are both up the same creek without anything that even looks like a paddle. The fish plant workers and fishermen who suffer as a result are farther up the same creek and they don’t even have a canoe.

And of course nothing at all will happen with any of it because the only man who apparently is allowed to make a decision in the current administration is currently laid up in hospital for another few weeks.

• June 2005:  “The tragedy of common-place thinking”
• November 2005:  “The return of Backuppable Tom”
• November 2005:  “The FPI-competitor myth and one of the real problems”
• March 2006:  “FPI, Tom Rideout and the future of the fishery”
• March 2006:  “Was Rideout asleep in the wheelhouse?”

-srbp-

Doing the Spandau Ballet

labradore highlights the bizarro world of local Cultists including one of the leading worshippers who – according to very poorly informed pundits and some misguided others – is considered as a potential leader of the Liberal Party.

-srbp-

Kiss it all good bye

Anyone hear any comments by the current St. John’s city councillors at how proud they were of the way the city looked in CBC’s Republic of Doyle?

Well, here’s what some of them told reporters, as presented in the Telegram:

“Republic of Doyle," a TV series that aired on CBC last week, received rave reviews from St. John's city councillors Monday.

"I didn't realize what a city I lived in, how beautiful it was," Coun. Gerry Colbert said. "When I look back on when I was a young fellow watching Magnum P. I., I used to say, 'God, I'd love to visit Hawaii, look at the shots of Hawaii, ' but I mean these shots, forget about the acting for a while, the shots that were taken were absolutely incredible."

Colbert said the show has gained popularity on the Internet and can be found on YouTube.

"We couldn't buy, in a million years, what that show gave us in one night," he said.

Mayor Dennis O'Keefe agreed that the city wouldn't be able to buy that kind of profile.

Coun. Debbie Hanlon and Coun. Sheilagh O'Leary also praised the show.

"It was fabulous, St. John's certainly looked gorgeous in it," Hanlon said.

"I was delighted," O'Leary said. "It was just fantastic."

Bet your last dollar that every single one of those councillors – except for Sheilagh O’Leary – is already sold on the idea of demolishing the downtown portion of St. John’s that provides much of the backdrop for the show.

You see every single city councillor – save O’Leary and maybe two others – is already on board with a plan by Fortis Properties to smash the existing municipal development plan and stick a 15 story high-rise on prime real estate on the waterfront.

It’s hard to imagine otherwise when you hear the mayor say absolutely asinine things like his line to local businessmen and women at a Rotary club that without development like Fortis is proposing, the city will have to rely on taxes to get its money.  

And if you listen to other councillors, it’s hard to imagine any of them standing in the way either.  There’ll be lots more talk about listening to the other side and about the need for development and progress.

That’s all just code for “I’ve already decided to vote for Fortis”. 

The crew at City Hall and their backers know how to talk out the clock.  They would like nothing better than an endless series of meetings and all sorts of hot air.  At the end, they’ll just vote the way they know right now that they will vote:  with Stan Marshall and his crowd.

Just remember what they did to people over the stadium, right down to the appeals farce.

Once the Fortis gig is done, then someone will file a proposal for the empty lot across Prescott Street from the current Fortis property.  This time they won’t try and conform to the old by-law like they sort-of did last time.  This time they’ll shoot for the stars.

And they’ll get that too.

Not long after there’ll be other plans. Other old buildings will be torn down because they are…well…old.

In place of these icky old things will rise the sort of architecture you see not in New York or Paris but in the true centres of modern civilization and culture.

Places like Mississauga or maybe Burlington.

Now this is not a lost cause by any stretch.  St. John’s city councillors are notoriously a pretty weak-kneed bunch. That’s why a few guys with imaginations as limited as their pockets are deep can win them over so easily.

But it’s going to take way more than a conversation or two in order to stop this proposal in its tracks.

Public meetings and letter writing won’t work much on them either. 

If people really don’t want to see the downtown turned into a carbon copy of a million other eyesores on the planet then they have to make it clear to each councillor that there is a huge political and maybe even a social or business price to be paid for what they are going to do. 

You see that’s the sort of stuff that is helping persuade them to vote with Fortis.  They are siding with their peeps.

So if you want them to shift positions, then sticking with their pals has to become painful.

Opponents of the plan need to consider some frank talk, some plain language.

Otherwise, kiss the whole of the downtown good bye and say hello to a cheap imitation of Scarborough.

-srbp-

Over and over and over, ‘til my tongue spirals out of my head…

That seems to be the mantra of government spending announcements for things like the Conception Bay South Bypass Road.

This is one recounted in this space last summer.

Well, now Terry French – since elevated to cabinet – is breaking the oft-announced and long delayed project down into its sub-components.  It’s no longer good enough just to announce a construction.  Now there has to be an announcement of the award of tenders to supply every bit of the sub-work.

In this case, it is the call for tenders for five kilometres of brush clearing.  Undoubtedly awarding the tender will get another release and then the felling of the first bit of scrub should be good for a photo op.

It all fits into the current Conservative philosophy – provincial and federal – of announcing announcements previously announced.  Makes it look like things are happening and that perception gets especially important four times a year.

Like say right now.

It’s February and the official government pollster is in the field.

-srbp-

Trivimania: the Premier Edition

Thursday, February 11, marks the 25th anniversary of a document that is second only to the Terms of Union in the profound transformation it caused in Newfoundland and Labrador in the past 100 years.

February 11 is the date on which the federal and provincial governments concluded the Atlantic Accord.  We aren’t talking about the one-time load of  “f” off money from 2005. 

Nope.

We are speaking here of the landmark federal-provincial agreement that is the underpinning of every single offshore oil penny that has ever come, bar none.   Were it not for the 1985 agreement, there would be no offshore oil industry in this province, at least not the way it is today.

But there’ll be more on that later in the week.

Today, let’s take a quick look at the lighter side of events like this.  Inevitably, they bring to mind the sorts of details, the tender morsels of information that only regular fans of Friday Cross Talk’s trivia show or jeopardy would bother to notice.

Who was Premier of Newfoundland – as the province was then called – in 1985?

Brian Peckford, of course.

Sadly, he is forgotten by too many people in our province, perhaps most surprisingly of all he is neglected – and has been savagely abused even - by the crowd who currently run the place.

But Brian stands out in another way.

Of all the post-Confederation Premiers who held the office as the result of a general election, Brian Peckford was the youngest person sworn into office as Premier.  He was just 37 years old in 1979.  He’d won the Progressive Conservative leadership and took office as Premier before the election, but unlike Roger Grimes, Beaton Tulk and Tom “43 days” Rideout, Peckford won his own mandate.

So here’s the rest of the trivia quiz for you.  Sorry, there are no prizes other than the satisfaction of knowing you are a fountain of seemingly useless information too.  And remember, we are excluding from our consideration those three post-Confed Premiers who didn’t win the job in a general election.

1.  We know Brian Peckford was the youngest, but which Premier was the oldest at the time he was sworn into office?

2.  Which Premier was second oldest at the time of swearing in?

3.  Which Premier was the oldest at the time he left office?

4.  a.  What provincial district has the distinction of being the one from which the most post-Confederation premiers have been elected?

b.  How many of those Premiers could be considered townies by place of birth? [To avoid any confusion, let’s restate this question to make it clear: Of the Premiers since Confederation, including Tulk, Grimes and Rideout, which one was born in St. John’s?  That is who is the only townie Premier since 1949?]

And finally,…

5.  If we take every single person sworn in as Premier (yes, including Grimes, Tulk and Rideout),  list them in order from oldest to youngest at the time he was sworn in.

Perhaps your humble e-scribbler can come up with some prizes to hand out for the next contest.

-srbp-

From base commander to QDC

News today from Trenton of the arrest of the local base commander on two counts of murder, two counts of sexual assault and two counts of break and enter would be shocking news in itself.

The you take a look at the guy’s service record.

And if he is found guilty, he would have evaded background checks and security clearances at pretty high levels within National Defence and the Canadian Forces.

Those are all things for later, after a trial that will look at events that took place after the guy arrived in Trenton in July 2009.  Undoubtedly other police services will be looking into unsolved cases that coincident with times the guy was in their neck of the woods.

Like, say Halifax Metro and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police for the years between 1992 and 1995 when the guy flew with 434 Squadron while it was based at 12 Wing Shearwater.

For now, the former VIP pilot will be cozying up with his fellow inmates at the Quinte [pronounced kwintee] Detention Centre near Napanee. 

It’s not one of the nicer spots in the Ontario corrections system.

Sort of on par with Her Majesty’s Penitentiary in St. John’s  - but nowhere near as old - where guests have been known to bunch three and four to a room designed for one or two just like at Quinte.

It’s a long way from what he’s been used to. 

But then again, if he’s found guilty, he’d better get used to it.

And be thankful he won’t be sent to the old detention barracks at Edmonton.

-srbp-

Blog comments controversial?

Via Crisisblogger, you can find a link to a post on mashable.com about a brewing controversy about comments on blogs.

Seems some people making comments have been nasty:

Popular gadget site Engadget has recently shut down comments. It’s a temporary measure, it says, but the blog took it because the “tone in comments has really gotten out of hand.”

Quel horreur, indeed.

Anyone running any local website of any kind knows the trouble of not only cleaning off the scorch-marks from the site but trying to keep the vicious little buggers from setting all sorts of flaming bags of dog-turd alight in the first place.  The Telegram site and cbc.ca/nl have all had their share of comment wars. 

There is no full-proof method short of closing off comments altogether.  Your humble e-scribbler shut down comments for the longest time.  Then it seemed like a good idea to open them up with varying ways of making sure people took some responsibility for their words. 

The system in place right now is mostly based on the honour system and for the most part it seems to work.  There are Chinese and Philipino spammers who sometimes get through but they get deleted as soon as they are found.  Comments that add nothing to a discussion are very rare.  The most recent spurt happened over the weekend but that lasted only a few hours.  Cleaning up the mess was simple.

The most remarkable thing about SRBP is that the people who do comment manage to remain respectful and generally offer some thoughtful input.  The exchanges may get heated but for the most part things remain civilized. There is no magic formula that others may copy that just seems to be the way.

And SRBP isn’t unique in that respect.  You can find a great many Internet spaces locally and nationally where the comments sections offer input that is sometimes more significant than the stuff in the post itself that sparked the given conversation.

Now aside from the spammers, everyone is familiar with plants.  For the most part, they are easy to spot and they really don’t cause much of an issue.  Any audience is usually savvy enough to tell which comments come from real people and which comments are from a script.

Interestingly enough, there doesn’t seem to be much online comment about blog-writers who pen their own sock puppet  -that is, planted - comments apparently in an effort to make their space seem more interesting or popular than it is.

The phenomenon certainly exists.

-srbp-

And here’s one that deserves a few e-mails

Janice Kennedy – Who? you may rightly wonder – writes in the Ottawa Citizen on a topic of considerable current interest. 

Hard to tell what is worse:  her suggestion the Premier should resign for seeking medical treatment in the United States  - get a life, Ms. Kennedy -  or the use of the word “Newfie” by one of the people commenting on her post.

The first is just nonsense, as is most of the rationale she uses to get to that conclusion.

The second is just plain insulting.

Feel free, gentle readers, to give her way more attention than she deserves.

-srbp-

A fraudster (allegedly) by any other accent

A member of parliament facing fraud charges in the Whitehall spending scandal tries gamely but lamely to defend himself on national television.

Just remember:  people elected this guy to vote on what the rules would be for everyone else.

Warning:  This video contains scenes of incredible stupidity that may strike some viewers as awfully bloody familiar.

h/t Guido.

-srbp-

Kremlinology 16 (Update): Deep T’roat

This is more like a blast from the past but it is curious artefact in light of recent events.

From December 2007, a comment by then-fish minister Loyola Hearn on the sour relationship between the crowd of Conservatives in Sin Jawns and the crowd of Conservatives in Ottawa:

"There are times I'm sure I know as much as what's going on in cabinet and caucus or on the eighth floor as the premier does," said Hearn, referring to Williams's office in Confederation Building in St. John's.

"I always do. That's why we can always be one step ahead of him," Hearn said in a year-end interview with CBC News. "I have friends throughout cabinet and caucus."

That doesn’t mean Loyola is Deep T’roat. What it shows is that the idea is already there of some measure of tension and dissent within Conservative circles.

At the time, Danny Williams dismissed the idea [of traitorous dissent within the ranks] with characteristic bluster. The faithful deployed, too, with their now-signature set of over-the-top messages, delivered in one example by permits and licenses minister Kevin O’Brien.

But still, that didn’t stop Hisself from demanding every member of his caucus swear a sort of loyalty oath during the 2008 federal election and the Family Feud that caused massive discontent within the party.  That was about 10 months after Hisself dismissed the whole of idea of loose caucus and cabinet lips in the first place and, on a go forward basis it seemed to telegraph a huge level of unease or uncertainty.

After all, if their loyalty was unquestionable – the essence of the December claim – then it seems odd to question it at all let alone in a way which someone leaked to the local media. Beth Marshall – now a senator – is the only one who said she wouldn’t support the anti- federal campaign.

Contacted by The Telegram via e-mail at the time, only six Conservatives would give an answer publicly.  The rest of the Tory caucus ignored it, apparently, although the Telegram piece does end with an interesting reference:

Outgoing federal cabinet minister Loyola Hearn has charged that the premier's office is threatening those who may aid the federal Conservatives, citing "a growing number of calls we have received from concerned caucus members and Progressive Conservative staffers."

Williams has denied the allegation.

You see, it is interesting because it matches up with what was going around the local Tory circles at the time.  There were a great many, for example, in St. John’s South-Mount Pearl who were extremely upset that Kathy Dunderdale, Paul Oram and other prominent local Tories were out door-knocking for the Liberal in the riding.

The idea of friction within the provincial Conservative camp isn’t new.  Some of it has been known to flare up in public.  And in 2008, don’t forget, St. John’s South is where the Tory vote didn’t stay home like it did in other ridings.  By all appearances and indications, a goodly chunk of the Conservative vote did head to the polls.  And voted overwhelmingly for the Orange candidate.

That definitely was not the officially sanctioned Family Feud choice.

10 years is a long time to crush every bit of difference and ambition in a crowd of ambitious political types.  A decade is a long time to demand unquestioning obedience or face the consequences of cashiering or a miserable seat.

And even if that weren’t true, there is still the fairly obvious unease resulting from both the by-election loss last fall and the fairly obvious fact the win in the other seat required every member of caucus and a whole lot of political staffers in order to hang onto what should have been a safe seat and an easy win.

“Atrophy” was one word used privately by someone who ought to know in order to describe what has happened to the district-level party machinery across the province.

There’s something to be said for that.  It’s pretty bizarre to shut down a government for a couple of months to fight two by-elections.  Historically in this province, incumbent parties can usually manage to walk and chew electoral gum simultaneously.  Work gets delegated and the Leader/Premier and senior cabinet get deployed only as needed.

And it’s not like Hisself didn’t say loudly and clearly and repeatedly in 2006 – although it seemed like everyone missed it – that he wouldn’t be hanging around for the Hat Trick.

10 years is a long time in politics anywhere.

And it’s a long time for people to be studying how things work in practice.  Size up the strengths and weaknesses.

And then lay in wait to take advantage of a golden opportunity.

-srbp-

The Screaming of the Banshees

This week Newfoundlanders and Labradorians found themselves embroiled in yet another political psychodrama in the endless series of psychodramas that are Newfoundland politics these days.

The members of the Fan Club -  the Cult of Personality - deployed, en masse, over the past couple of days all screeching the same tune of self-righteous indignation at that favourite target of the political right, the news media.

They started on Day One with a strike at Ramona Deering and John Soper in CBC radio’s lunchtime phone-in show.  Now there are two things to note here.  First of all, the show has ratings which – to be truthful – are nothing to write home about. This is not an opinion-driver of a show by any stretch.

The usual sort of call-in fare would be the show on Tuesday, the one pre-empted by the Premier’s health crisis.  It was about the challenges and choices for women in changing their name after they marry.  Not an insignificant topic, but not exactly one to raise the blood-pressure either or suddenly cause an outbreak of the vapours in Botwood.

Second of all, the topic for the show gave callers a chance to express publicly their concern for the Premier's health.

And do that they did.  Caller One.  Then Caller Two  - the now well-known Minnie, she of her own considerable medical burden and ardent admirer of the Premier - and then Three and then Four.  All as respectful and as courteous as the two hosts, both of whom – incidentally – are well known for their professional and sedate demeanour.

And then the fan-blades started spitting the crap.

Caller after caller and e-mailers to boot all lambasting the Ceeb for having the gall to invade the premier’s privacy by discussing the fact he had a health care problem in the first place.  What other people said didn’t matter;  these people were angry that “it” was being discussed at all.  They all used similar words and generally expressed similar sentiments in such a way that made it unmistakeable that every single one of them had been organized into some sort of vox putz.

One thought there should censorship of everything anyway. Another said  – with absolutely no sense of irony  - that there was too much focus on personality these days.  What should be reported was somewhere between nothing and what we see today.  Do not merely accept this characterisation of the show.  Listen for yourself.

What made the calls after Number Four stand out is that they all said the same thing, in so many words, and, what they said bore no resemblance in any way to what had actually been said by anyone else.

Incidentally, the only thing more amazing than the heaps of scorn these planted callers piled on the media in general is that so many people at the Ceeb still don’t seem to realise they were apparently the victims of a concerted attack.

The meek at the Ceeb aren’t the only ones to inherit a biblical whirlwind of vengeance from the local personality cultists.

Charter Fan Club member and alleged positive thinker Dave Rudofsky made at least one call  - to the drive-time show – to spew an amazing lot of negativity in curiously familiar words about something heard on the Morning Show from former CBC television producer Bob Wakeham.  Unconfirmed reports, by the by, have it that Wakeham’s temerity in mentioning a certain subject right up at the top of the cult’s extensive AbsolutVerboteneliste prompted a torrent of bile aimed solely at him via the Mother Corp’s local e-mail and telephones.

So intense is the anger among the Fanboys and Fangirls that even The Voice of The Cabinet Minister has been getting a heaping of orchestrated outrage and concern.  In the afternoon slot at the semi-official government information dispensary, Our Man in a Blue Line Cab: The Original Series found other things to talk about so  for the most part Lord Haw Haw of Hy’s has been relatively unscathed.

Not so Randy Simms.

Simms has been subjected to the barrage e-mails and telephone calls intended  - as with all the calls, e-mails and comments to and about local media – to bully him into silence.  The whole thing got so intense so quickly that by the end of the Wednesday show, Simms politely told the lot of them to shag off and just stop listening.

The most startling expression of the cultish line came bright and early the next day from none other than the guy who runs The Voice.  Broadcaster John Steele – also a cabinet appointee to look after those precious government oil stakes, by the way - shat on broadcasters for reporting stuff so that other people might know it.

Simms - a Williams target of old - handled him deftly and with undeserved restraint.  Simms posed a few simple questions to his boss which left Steele rather obviously stuck for an intelligent response.  He fell back on the talking points.

Now if the Premier and his associates genuinely didn’t want any attention drawn to his personal health problems, then they went about handling this in a way that seemed calculated to generate the maximum amount of attention and controversy. A number of news media editorials and comments – including ones from Simms – have noted this.

On the other hand, if they wanted to generate international media attention for some unfathomable and insane reason, then the way they handled this only guaranteed the story rapidly became a firestorm over which the people at the centre had no influence whatsoever. That is simply the way the world is these days;  to decry it is to waste energy complaining that dogs bark or that the sky is blue.

But if either secrecy or adoration was the objective, the media line fixed on Day One wouldn’t be to send out any and all Blue Dart Irregulars to pummel anyone who mentioned heart or surgery in a public forum.

Go back to that CBC Cross Talk and you can see exactly the point:  a respectful show in which the first four callers expressed nothing but concern for the Premier’s health followed by a string of pompous negativity from a bunch of planted callers.

Simply put, the two things don’t fit together at all.

What the people of Newfoundland and Labrador have seen the past few days, though, is not the product of any deep thoughts.  There are no complex plans at work.  There is nothing more substantive than what the legion of fanboys have consistently brought to politics over the past decade or so.

What there has been is what last fall’s political crisis brought:  fear and insecurity.

There was plenty to be jittery about.

Most obviously, someone with some pretty good inside information opted to bust the whole thing wide open.

On the face of it, it seems that those in the know hoped to scoot the Premier out of the country for one of his now legendary holidays this time of year.  If it had worked, the job would have been done and no one would have been any the wiser.

But that isn’t what happened.

First there was the leak to NTV – and not CBC – about the trip and the surgery in the first place.  Then a couple of days later, there was the leak about the date of the Premier’s surgery.

Bits and pieces of a story are now floating all over town but the sources are never traceable.  Make no mistake though:  the stories have – at their heart – some kernel of truth, some nub of authenticity which suggests that someone in the know is very consciously dripping information out.

What makes that all the more striking is that this was a story access to which was very tightly controlled.  
Even the provincial Conservative caucus didn’t hear about it until the day after the story hit the news.

Take a look at Kathy Dunderdale on Tuesday and you can see pure stress. The panicked look on the deputy premier’s face during the briefing told you the scrum was not not part of any plan. Gone was her usual – and always unjustified -  smug demeanour,  replaced by something that spoke of tension.  Her angst wasn’t caused by the nature of the news she was discussing. Something else was clearly bothering her as she delivered an ersatz Plan B to replace the Plan A that someone had blown to smithereens the night before.

The aggressiveness and bullying of the cult telegraphs their fear.  It’s like their reaction to the political turmoil last fall.

Some wag said this week that the Tory caucus Tuesday morning was  - like all caucuses faced with such news - likely made up of two crowds.  There were the rabbits huddled in the corner, shivering.  Those are the ones who took to the airwaves and helped bring out the other fanboys.

And there were others looking to capitalize on things if not now, then down the road a ways.

Like say the one(s) who spilled the beans to NTV.

Likely they can see how times are changing across the province, how things are just a wee bit closer to normal, how the same old schtick just doesn’t work any more.

They can hear that the tune from the cult now sounds less and less like hymns of praise and glory and more and more like keening.

Even the banshees themselves know  - in the dark places in their hearts where they are afraid to go - they know what their screeching means.

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Another view on The Big Story

This time from Andrew Coyne at macleans.ca who sparked a rather interesting series of comments on how the media has or has not been covering the story which has the local personality cultists in such a snit:

Ever since Danny Williams was revealed to have been seeking treatment for a heart ailment across the border, the media have been observing a strange and uncomfortable silence about the matter.

On one hand, this reticence is commendable. Williams’s [sic] preference in health care is nobody’s business, and should remain, as far as possible, a private matter between him and his God. Though some claim this is a lifestyle choice, it’s far more likely that it is a result of something beyond his control. As such, it is not a fit matter for public commentary.

But once the story has, by one means or another, entered the public domain, that puts a different colour on it. At that point, the media are not just declining to report on something: they are actively colluding in a fiction. The issue is no longer Williams’s [sic] medical inclination. It’s the media’s refusal to acknowledge reality

On a day when Jack Layton announced that he is being treated for prostate cancer and labradore reposted a block of news stories and three official news releases from a previous trip Danny Williams took to the hospital,  it all adds to the views worth considering.

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Taxpayers shafted

On February 2, Abitibi notified the provincial government that the company vacated the only properties the provincial government didn’t expropriate in December 2008.

As a result, the taxpayers of Newfoundland and Labrador are entirely responsible for cleaning up whatever environmental mess may be attached to the century old facility.

There is no word on how big the problems at the old paper mill are or how much it will cost taxpayers to clean it up.

The official government release on the development is a masterpiece of uncommunication from a department – natural resources – that has become legendary for its practice of the dark art of misinformation. 

There is even a complete contradiction in the claim at the front – namely that the provincial government is now responsible for the sit in every respect and a statement at the back that Abitibi is still liable.

This is the third financial shaft to be felt by taxpayers resulting from the 2008 expropriation.  The first is the yet-unresolved bill for the expropriation itself.  The second is the voluntary payment by the provincial government of money owed by the company.

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Health care and a politician’s privacy

Now:

The Premier, as well as every one of the rest of us, has a right to privacy.

and

"You forgo a lot of privacy when you put your hand up to do this job but there are certain areas of your life that are sacrosanct," [Deputy Premier Kathy Dunderdale]  said.

but back then?

Well, let’s just say things were different.

Extremely different.

One example, an official news release:

Williams provides update on medical condition

ST. JOHN'S, May 20, 2003 — Danny Williams, Leader of the Opposition and MHA for Humber West, today provided an update on his medical condition. Williams was admitted to hospital on Wednesday, May 13, suffering from severe back pain. He was permitted to leave the hospital over the weekend while his physicians awaited the results of medical tests. However, his mobility was severely limited.

"The physicians and staff of St. Clare's have conducted tests to determine what is causing the pain. They believe it is the result of inflamed tissue in my back. Tomorrow, [May 21, 2003] they will perform back surgery to try and alleviate the pain," Williams said.

While recovery time will depend upon the extent and nature of the surgery, Williams' back problem is not expected to have a long-term impact on his political career. "I expect a full recovery and look forward to serving the people of Newfoundland and Labrador for many years to come. However, any type of surgery and subsequent recovery should be treated very seriously. I will follow the instructions of my doctor with regards to recovery time and physical activity and won't do anything to compromise my long-term health and well-being.

"I respectfully ask for the people of Newfoundland and Labrador to be understanding of the fact that I will be temporarily out of the office while this back problem is being addressed. However, I am in regular contact with my staff and caucus and am still able to perform my duties as the MHA for Humber West, Leader of the Opposition and Leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Newfoundland and Labrador.

"I want to thank the staff at St. Clare’s for their first-rate care and medical treatment. They have been extremely professional and I am very appreciative of their efforts. I would also like to thank all the people who have left messages of support. My family and I take great comfort in knowing that so many people are thinking of us."

Followed by another:

Williams undergoes successful back surgery

ST. JOHN'S, May 21, 2003 — Danny Williams, Leader of the Opposition and MHA for Humber West, today underwent successful surgery to alleviate severe back pain. Williams was admitted to hospital on Wednesday, May 14, and is expected to remain there for several days as part of his recovery.

During the complicated operation, which lasted more than two hours, doctors removed a mass of tissue from his back that was believed to be the source of his pain. As a standard precautionary procedure, this tissue will be analyzed over the next 48 hours. Williams is now fully conscious and resting in hospital with his family.

While Mr. Williams is expected to make a complete recovery, his physicians will work with him over the coming days to develop a comprehensive rehabilitation program. That rehabilitation program will determine when he is able to return to the office and resume his provincial tour schedule. In the interim, he continues to be in regular contact with his staff and caucus.

"I ask people to understand that while I may not be able to travel throughout the province in the short term, I will continue to fully discharge my duties as MHA for Humber West, Leader of the Opposition and Leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Newfoundland and Labrador. I will do everything possible to work with my doctors to expedite my rehabilitation program and I look forward to a complete and prompt recovery," Williams said.

The Williams family would like to sincerely thank the physicians and staff at St. Clare's for their professional care and treatment. They would also like to thank the countless people who have sent messages of support and encouragement. The family is truly touched by such a wonderful outpouring of emotion.

And then another…

Williams receives excellent prognosis for recovery

ST. JOHN'S, May 26, 2003 — Danny Williams, Leader of the Opposition and MHA for Humber West, today provided an update on his medical condition. Williams was admitted to St. Clare's Emergency Department Wednesday, May 14, and underwent surgery Wednesday, May 21, to alleviate severe pain that was being caused by a mass of tissue in his back.

"My physicians are very pleased with the surgery and expect me to make a full recovery. In fact, I am already able to take short walks in the hospital. All tests to date have been completed and the results were extremely favourable. Doctors say that I am making excellent and steady progress, but given the nature of the surgery, complete recovery could take upwards of six weeks. They have developed a rehabilitation program that involves rest, appropriate physical exercise and physiotherapy. I will strictly adhere to that program and will do everything possible to expedite my recovery," Williams said.
As a result of the surgery, Williams is experiencing normal post-operative pain. He is continuing to receive medical treatment in hospital and is being re-evaluated on a day-to-day basis to determine an appropriate discharge date.

"Given that physicians are advising me not to travel in the immediate future, I will be asking a number of our MHAs to represent me and the party at various functions throughout the province. With the exception of travel, I expect to be able to conduct all of my duties as Leader of the Opposition, MHA for Humber West and Leader of the PC Party of Newfoundland and Labrador while working from my office at home."

Williams once again thanked the physicians and staff of St. Clare's for their outstanding medical care. "I don't think a person can truly appreciate the remarkable efforts put forward by our health care workers until they are able to experience it first hand. These dedicated professionals work very hard to provide quality care to their patients. My family and I are very grateful for their efforts. We would also like to thank the thousands of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians who have called or sent cards with their support. Such kind gestures will never be forgotten."

There is no record that the premier’s personality cult voiced any objections to these news releases or the subsequent news coverage.

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Sketchy Jerome

Colleen Power’s latest.

Be warned:  Language and drug references.

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Kremlinology 16: Deep T'roat

Who is it?

The province's NTV station reported the news, but didn't reveal its source for that information.

That’s the second leak this week about the Premier’s health.


The first leak blew away whatever plan there was in the first place to keep Danny Williams’ health condition a complete secret from the general public. The reasons why they wanted to play it that way are irrelevant (although that’s what the plants will continue to harp on.)

The real mystery in all this is the identity of the person within the Premier’s circle who is following his or her own agenda.

Deputy premier Kathy Dunderdale can drone on and on with all the usual self-serving, sanctimonious crap she wants about the news media.

The truth is that unless someone very consciously and deliberately contacted NTV – and apparently only NTV -  no one would be any the wiser of where the Premier went and what happened while he was there.

Who is Deep T'roat?

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Vox Pops

An apparent member of the Fan Club – how typical is open to debate -  criticising the media for reporting on the Premier’s health problems, from a recent call to CBC Radio’s Cross Talk (02 Feb 10):

He doesn’t even take a salary… he’s done everything he can short of fixing the original problem [and] going back in time and taking Joey Smallwood out at birth…I think all news should be very much censored and what we see of it from a personal matter should be read on TV by Toni-Marie Wiseman in a bikini…

 

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And he will get mail, too

Geoff Meeker in the first of what looks like a series of posts over at The Telegram on the war being waged by the Danny Williams Fan Club on local news media.

If history is any guide, Geoff will get more than a few vicious e-mails of his own.

One can only imagine what attention Bob Wakeham is getting. 

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Rumpole and the Valentine’s Treat

The long-delayed Provincial Court appointments miraculously appeared on Thursday. They take effect the day after St. Valentine’s Day.

Lois Skanes, from the Premier’s old chambers on Duckworth Street, is going straight from her office to a plum seat on the bench in St. John’s without having to do any time at all dispensing justice in the nethermost reaches of the land.

Mike Madden, a St. John’s federal prosecutor, is headed to Suburbia in the Woods to assist One Judge Short in his labours.

Jackie Brazil – most recently seen in public carrying crappy briefs from her masters in cabinet to Madame Justice Cameron – will be sitting in Harbour Grace.

"If you're not receiving your instructions from Mr. Thompson [a former clerk of the Executive Council], then can you tell me whether or not your instructions come from the attorney general, for example[?]" Cameron [asked] Brazil.

After a lengthy pause, Brazil said only that she represented the government.

No word  - yet - on what happened to the fellow who was in Harbour Grace until now, former director of public prosecutions Colin Flynn.

Readers of these scribbles will note that there is no appointment to the bench in Grand Falls-Windsor.  That would be the one where Don Singleton was supposed to go as part of a rather curious little appointment daisy chain that ultimately led to Singleton withdrawing from the whole process. This tends to confirm the belief the appointment of a judge in GFW wasn’t necessary in the first place.

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Inside Knowledge

For those who may have missed it the first time, “Kremlinology 14:  Dead Caterpillars”.

For those who scoffed at the notion the first time the post appeared, notice how suddenly things start to fit together as other elements of the story emerge.

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Freedom from Information: The Two Connies

Not only do the federal and provincial Conservative parties in power have very similar attitudes toward the legislature, they also share a common disregard for public access to government information.

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What would Beaton do?

If you can’t build ‘em a greenhouse, then the next best thing for a government bereft of any ideas is create some government jobs handing out government cheques.

"Our government is committed to creating jobs in all regions of the province," said the Honourable Susan Sullivan, MHA for Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans. "The establishment of this new office in Central Newfoundland further emphasizes the commitment that has been made to support the residents living in this region."

The new office in Grand Falls-Windsor will employ 25 people sending cheques to people who are helping to save the race from extinction.  The office workers will also hand out money to help people pay their home heating bills.

The whole thing sounds awfully familiar.

Frighteningly familiar.

 

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Economic Recovery: Not exactly as illustrated

By definition, anyone connected to “economic development” in any provincial government or quasi-government organization must be so positive and upbeat as to make a Pollyanna look like someone about to climb into a warm bath and open a major artery or six.

That pretty much sums up the view in central Newfoundland where the regions major private sector employer is gone and there is nothing on the go even remotely as big:

"(If it was contrary to what businesses are reporting) you would see it in job losses, you would see it in lack of inventory," [Amy Coady-Davis, chair of the Grand Falls-Windsor town economic development committee] said.

"The turnover is there - it is right in front of your face. You can't fudge those numbers. Sales are up, they have said they're up, you can see that they are up."

Well, not exactly, at least if you judge by some numbers included the same Telegram article and which came from no less an authority than the town’s own economic development agency:

According to the economic development office in Grand Falls-Windsor, housing starts are down 50 per cent from 2008 - there were 118 units built then as compared to 53 units in 2009.

There you have it.

And if that wasn’t enough, consider the view from the local chamber of commerce:

Gerald Thompson, president of the Chamber of Commerce - which represents 209 businesses in Grand Falls-Windsor - tends to agree with the town's positive outlook.

He said they are getting far more positive feedback from members than negative.

"... Although there's been a number of small businesses that have closed in the last year, we still know that the people that have done business here in this valley, their percentages over last year are up.”

Of course, they are up. 

Some of the people who used to patronize those businesses that have closed up have moved their custom to the ones remaining.

And those companies that went out of business? 

Well, they aren’t members of the chamber of commerce any more – most likely – so their voices wouldn’t heard when the chamber does a survey of members.

Just to add to the whole surreal atmosphere of the article, don’t forget that the president of the chamber of commerce cited as proof of the great things the positive view from the people who build new homes.

Oh yeah.

Things are so great in that business people are building only half as many homes as they did in that artificial bubble the year after the mill closed.  That would be the year of severance cheques and all that extra, short-term cash.

What happens from this point onward will be entirely the result of whatever economic activity there is left now that the Abitibi mill’s corpse has stopped twitching.  Those who are tempted to look at places like Stephenville need to think again.  All those paper mill workers found other jobs, mostly in Alberta.  Those sorts of options don’t exist for the crew from Grand Falls-Windsor.

Nor is there a chance that the province’s remaining paper mill – there were three in 2003, incidentally – will take up any slack.  It is struggling to survive.  The company that runs the mill is reportedly looking for a 10% wage roll back from workers.

The professional pollyannas can be as bright-eyed and optimistic as the want.

The reality may well prove to be not exactly as illustrated.

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“And other media are now reporting…”

Add that one to your collection of great quotes that ring a little tinny.

The truth is that other media had the story first and were reporting all of it – including the American bit – before anyone else including the guy who said those immortal words.

That line is nothing however compared to this one from a Canadian Press story filed out of Halifax:

"I want to resist the temptation to say that somehow the political culture here is underdeveloped and people are all just dupes of this man. I refuse to entertain that kind of interpretation."

Yes, Michael Temelini is refusing to entertain the interpretation but apparently he is willing to buy it a few drinks and introduce it to some casual acquaintances.

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Negligent Discharge

The only way a Sig Sauer  - the standard side arm for the Royal Newfoundland Constabulary - could discharge a round is if there was one already in the chamber.

So a bullet that skips off the floor and lodges in a wall other than on the range?

Figure it out for yourself.

Incidentally, that’s why some organizations call it what it is - a negligent discharge -not an “accidental” one.

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NL economy to shrink by 4.5% in 2009: RBC

From the latest RBC Economics provincial outlook:

After suffering a significant setback in its resource sector in 2009, Newfoundland & Labrador’s economy is set to jump back into growth mode in 2010. Major declines in mining and crude oil production during the past year are expected to be largely reversed. Stronger global demand for iron ore and the eventual settlement of a labour dispute at the Voisey’s Bay nickel operations are forecast to
boost metal mining output and the imminent entry into service of the North Amethyst satellite field — an expansion to White Rose — will provide a temporary lift to offshore oil production. This positive swing in a sector that represents approximately 30% of real GDP in the province will once more be the dominant factor in overall growth in 2010, contributing more than one percentage point to output. We forecast real GDP growth at 2.4%, revised up from 2% in September, and a 1.5% increase in 2011. In 2009, the slump in mining and oil
and gas extraction is likely to lop off more than six percentage points from real GDP growth, which has been revised lower to -4.5% to reflect longer-than anticipated mining operation shutdowns.

That forecast 2.4% growth in gross domestic product for 2010 puts the province in the middle of the pack among the other provinces.

Talk about a slender reed:  it is based entirely on production from the White Rose expansion.

Real growth in 2011 is positively anaemic at 1.5%.  That’s the lowest of any province.

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Delusion or Disconnect? Overtime

“The Williams Government has been unwavering in its commitment to managing provincial programs, services and financial resources in a responsible and prudent manner.”

and

“Sound governance and responsible management have been the cornerstones of how our government runs the affairs of the province and administers programs and services to meet the needs of our residents."

Sure.

That’s easy enough to write in a release, but it sure doesn’t hold up to scrutiny. 

Take, for example, the issue of overtime which led off pretty well every conventional news story on the Auditor General’s report released last week.

The coverage and commentary thus far took cues from the Auditor general and focused on some fairly simple and obvious points. Overtime both in its paid and time-off varieties has mushroomed  - up 55% - since 2001.

That’s despite the work of a committee struck in 2001 to come up with ways of controlling overtime. The climb has been steepest since 2004 when the current crowd of sound fiscal managers took over and started spending public cash in what Paul Oram and other cabinet ministers have described since as an unsustainable manner. 

The official response: these people are making way more money than before, there may be problems recruiting in some cases and the work demands for public safety all may make it necessary to run up the over-time bill.

That first one would matter if the amount was the concern. 

It really isn’t, though, if you look beyond the simplistic stuff the AG fixated on and look at the rates of change for specific departments.  It’s easy to focus on  Works and Transportation but the change in overtime paid out has actually been relatively modest.  It’s gone from $9.3 million to about $11.9 million in a little less than a decade.

But what about Executive Council and Finance?

The numbers there show stunning increases:  from $74,000 to $602,000 in Finance and comparable jumps – on the order of nine or 10 percent  - in Executive Council. The explanations offered for the transportation or Justice departments’ overtime expenses just don’t apply here.

They also don’t fit with the pattern for most of the departments listed on page 12 of that section of the AG report.  The changes, over time, just don’t match that rate of increase.  Even in Justice, the overtime paid out in 2008 is only slightly less than three times higher than that paid in 2000. That’s bigger than it should be but the amount is potentially justified – pardon the pun – if there are issues of staffing or public safety involved in some years.

The sort of comparison done here – as relatively unsophisticated as it is – just can’t be found in the AG report.  There is much talk of amounts and the shares of the total held by one department or another.  But at no point does the AG zero in on the departments which seem to have some fairly obvious problems and ones that have – on the face of it – much more significant implications for management or the manageability of the problem.

If a department has a fairly consistent amount of overtime, then that’s one thing.  But if the amount starts small and then grows exponentially?  Well, that suggests there are people problems or an organizational problem that needs to be addressed with something more substantial than the “keep an eye on things” advice coming from the AG report.

You might forgive the Auditor General for the simplistic approach to this issue taken in the report if the amount of overtime accumulated through the “time-off in lieu of” system  - called TOIL - wasn’t equally as dramatic as the paid overtime in a couple of cases as well.

That chart isn’t distorted.  Finance went from a TOIL of $68,000 in Fiscal Year 2000 to almost $1.1 million in FY 2008. Justice numbers are about the same.  TOIL is time off in lieu of overtime.

What makes these numbers stand out all the more is the comparison with departments where you might expect the overtime bill to be huge. 

Take Health, for example.  Big department.  Plenty of demands.  However, both the TOIL and paid overtime costs in the study period remained about what they were before.  Now the paid overtime numbers for Health fluctuated wildly over time, but they did not experience the sort of dramatic sweep upward seen with the departments noted here.  And in the case of TOIL, the Health tally was about $27,000 for 2008 compared to $25,000 about a decade ago.

It would take way more information that the AG makes available to figure out why these three departments are experiencing the rather dramatic changes in overtime over time.  As a result, it would be hard to say what is causing the problems and therefore make some useful suggestions on how to fix things. 

One thing that is for certain, the AG report makes some pretty lame recommendations that don’t really amount to much.  Tracking the overtime and making sure it is warranted both count as penetrating insights into the managerially obvious and they are about as useless an exercise as faking your own recommendations.

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Skywatch 2010: The Marystown Video

Courtesy of Glen Carter at NTV News:  First Edition, here is a screen cap from the Marystown video taken on the same Monday evening people saw unidentified flying objects near Harbour Mille.

1.  The contrails are plainly visible and have both the reddish and the dark characteristics seen in the image from Harbour Mille.

2.  The aircraft making the contrails is plainly visible in one portion of the video.  It is a twin-engined commercial jet – similar to an Airbus A310/A320 or an Embraer 190 -of the type that routinely fly in that area on the way to and from St. John’s.

3.   The multi-coloured splotch on the right side of the picture is either sun glinting off the airframe or a strobe light on the aircraft.  Remember that this is essentially a single “frame” of the video.  There may well be things in the shot that wouldn’t be as prominent in the full video.

4.  The angle of this shot is somewhat unusual.  It appears the aircraft flew directly over the shooter and in this particular shot is proceeding away from the camera.  The camera also appears to be max’ed out on zoom.  In the video, the aircraft is seldom if ever steady in the centre of the frame.

5.  While it isn’t quite so clear in this shot, there is a gap between the back end of the engine and the start of the contrail.

Flightaware.com Update: 

flightaware.com is a great resource.  Here’s a screen cap taken – as the time stamp shows at about 1800 hrs local or 2130 Zulu.  That would be 6:00PM to normal people.

The red dot is about where Harbour Mille would be on this crude map.  The blue track is the official flight path for Air Canada’s flight 695, an Embraer 190 run from St. John’s (YYT) to Pearson (YYZ) with a stop at Halifax along the way.  The yellow line is the actual track as it showed up on flightaware.com.  Allow for inaccuracy given the crude nature of the map.

It was an airplane folks.

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Delusion or Disconnect? Managing public land

 

The news release issued from the provincial finance department in response to the latest report by the Auditor General.

“The Williams Government has been unwavering in its commitment to managing provincial programs, services and financial resources in a responsible and prudent manner.”

and

“Sound governance and responsible management have been the cornerstones of how our government runs the affairs of the province and administers programs and services to meet the needs of our residents."

The Auditor General’s latest report on how the provincial government is managing your money:

Part 2.4:  Managing Crown Land.  There are an estimated 9,000 squatters occupying Crown land illegally but there is no regular program of inspection and enforcement to deal with the problem.

There is no inspection of shoreline Crown land to deal with squatting or any other aspect of land management. 

There is also no inspection program for leased or licensed land to ensure the rules are being followed and taxpayer interest  is protected.

Best example of the impact of the failure:  Humber Valley Resort.  There was no inspection at all until the AG started poking around eight years after the Crown lased the first block of land to the now bankrupt resort.

The Branch did not obtain a purchase and sale agreement that was signed by the Corporation and the chalet lot purchaser indicating an agreed upon purchase price, and did not determine the fair market value of the chalet lots in relation to the purchase price as required under the lease. As a result, the Branch could not demonstrate whether the 6% market value premiums paid by the Corporation were appropriate. [Emphasis added]

In other words, the Crown just accepted whatever the resort sent in a cheque without knowing what the sale price of the chalet involved actually was.

The Branch received market value premiums totalling $2.2 million or an average of $31,460 per chalet lot. The Corporation, upon sale of the chalet lots, would have received a total of $37.2 million or an average of $524,390 per chalet lot. As of September 2008, when the Corporation sought bankruptcy protection, the Branch had received three of the five annual lease payments totalling $3.8 million of the total $6.4 million in payments due over the term of the lease.

And when it comes to strategies and plans, the story isn’t any better:

Branch officials could not demonstrate whether the Geomatics
Strategy Implementation Plan developed in 1999 was ever reviewed
and approved by the Steering Committee or presented to Government
for final approval. Furthermore, there has been no meeting of the
Steering Committee since approximately the year 2000 and the Lands
Branch makes no formal reference to the plan.

The government response, in the order presented in the report:

The Department will determine whether the Geomatics Strategy
Implementation Plan was approved by Government.

The Department will review the relevance of the Geomatics Strategy
Implementation Plan.

In every other point, the department acknowledge the AG had stated departmental policy correctly.  Implicitly that’s an admission the department was not following its own policy.

At all.

Period.

For over a decade.

And that’s despite the fact that since 2003  - in other words for the past seven years – “[s]ound governance and responsible management have been the cornerstones of how our government runs the affairs of the province…”.

Unfortunately, most people in the province probably heard about or read the government news release  - with its obvious falsehood – rather than the frank acknowledgement by the lands department that it was in the process of sorting out the mess.

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Pick a position, any position

Over at nottawa, Mark draws attention to the most recent provincial government position on the federal shares in Hibernia, namely that the provincial government would be willing to pay cash for them.

This, Mark notes, is in stark contrast to the government’s original position, which he cites in a letter dated in 2008.

And indeed it is.

Like Sands Through the Hour Glass…

But in 2005, the provincial government’s letter to Santa put it differently:

The paragraph preceding that specific question puts some other colour in it.  The provincial government recognizes that the federal government had recovered its initial investment.  The provincial government expected anything beyond that to accrue to the provincial government.

But that question refers to the whole silly business of being “kept whole”.  In effect, such a phrase commits the province to ensuring the federal government recovers not only its investment but what they anticipated getting back as well.  it’s a bit of a nebulous idea but there should be no doubt about it:  If the reserves have grown  - as expected - and the potential federal return on investment has grown – as expected – the the question actually lays claim to zilch.

And as a consequence there wouldn’t be any purchase of shares.  Indeed, there would be no claim to the shares in the first place.

… so shifts the Demand of the Day

Now the rather quaint convention of meaning what you say and saying what you mean has always been no never mind for the current provincial administration.  Take for example, the varying positions on Equalization. One day the provincial government wanted 100% inclusion of natural resources revenues.  The next day, it demanded 100% exclusion.  One November, it was great to province that was not getting any Equalization.  Two months later, not getting hundreds of millions in Equalization that year and the year after was a betrayal of historic proportions.

Or for that matter the political racket that wound up with the one-time transfer of federal cash to the provincial government.  The provincial government’s initial position would have produced that single amount in one year.  Ultimately they caved and said yes to way less than they originally demanded.

Whatever position the government took before or takes now actually doesn’t really mean very much of anything at all. 

So right now there’s talk of paying cash for the shares.

What comes out the other end of the process – if anything comes out at all – may wind up looking a lot different from whatever has been said or written until now.

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Russia tests next-gen fighter

Russian aircraft design bureau Sukhoi tested its next generation fighter on Friday.

The aircraft – designated T-50 – flew for 47 minutes at Sukhoi’s test facility at Komsomolsk on Amur.

The T-50 is a joint Russian-Indian project.  India currently operates the latest Russian designed fighter and ground-attack jets as well as Russian-built helicopters, tanks and other military equipment.

The T-50 is similar in design to the United States Air Force’s F-22 Raptor which combines supersonic speed and high performance with low-observable or “stealth” capability. Ria Novosti’s defence analyst gives the aircraft’s design history in a story posted online on January 29.  Ilya Kramnik claims the design efforts for the so-called fifth generation fighter began in the 1980s and ultimately led to the Su-47.

While highly capable, the Su-47 used a forward-swept wing design which may have caused some performance and maintenance concern among the fighter’s intended users.

According to Kramnik, the current fighter comes from a 1998 request from the Russian air force for a new fighter that took advantage of the design features of the prototypes in the American next-generation fighter competition that led ultimately to the Raptor.

The T-50 in the test photographs appears to be unpainted.  It also appears to be using conventional nozzles instead of the vectoring type deployed on both the F-22 and on some other Sukhoi and MiG fighter designs which flew successfully.

In the video at left, a MiG-29 test aircraft demonstrates thrust vectoring. 

The moveable engine nozzles pivot to aim the engine thrust at up to 15 degrees from straight backwards. 

On two-engined aircraft, the nozzles may also be moved independently of one another.

This allows the aircraft to turn more tightly than a conventional aircraft.  Such a capability gives fighter pilots great advantage in dog-fighting.

In this video, a pilot demonstrates the thrust vector nozzles on a Raptor.

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Skywatch 2010: NTV has the proof

A viewer from Marystown sent NTV News some video footage shot on Monday evening that pretty much nails down the identification of the mysterious objects in the sky.

The mighty Ceeb can continue to ignore the obvious: there were no time-traveling missiles from France, there guys.

NTV has the truth:  a fairly good video of at least one twin-engined commercial jet – it might have been an Airbus A320  - cruising along and streaming out the contrails looking almost exactly the like the one in the photo displayed by CBC.

All that does is raise more questions about the CBC photo itself, but there can be no mistaking what was flying in the skies over Harbour Mille last Monday.  It was a flock of three aircraft – likely all commercial jets -  flying the usual route for aircraft coming from from Halifax and the eastern seaboard, potentially into St. John’s.

And for all those intrepid reporters busily scurrying around like this was a national security issue, here’s a simple and fairly obvious question.  Since even a missile would have turned up on radar, did anyone think to call those lovely folks at the Gander control tower to see what might have been flying along the south coast last Monday?

Beuhler?

Beuhler?

Didn’t think so.

Next time, though, people might go for the more obvious answer rather than leaping to all sorts of speculation and rumour for their answers.

After all, when you hear hoof-beats in this part of the world it is more sensible to think “horses” than an Eohippus that escaped from that mysterious experimental farm on the Bauline Line run by some fellow Hammond.

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By-election spec starts early

Beth Marshall’s elevation to the Antechamber to the Kingdom of Heaven started the inevitable by-election speculation almost immediately.

One will have to be called within 60 days of Marshall vacating the seat.  Under local election laws, that means that people can start looking for special ballots today.

Odds are it will be called immediately after the Olympics are over.  The provincial government has popped for too many tickets to make everyone – the Premier included – cancel their trip to wet coast in order to stay home and fight a by-election.

The thing will be knocked off as quick as you please so the new member can sit in the spring session of the legislature.

And who might that member be?

Well, on the Conservative side, the name of failed paradise mayoral candidate Kurtis Coombs has popped up right away.  Let’s just say he has a certain Kent-like cache to him right at the moment that might appeal to party leaders of a certain style.

Beth’s constituency assistant would be a logical choice as well since the provincial Conservatives seem to be in that phase where the most likely candidates come from political staff.  But maybe not since Beth is likely to be moving her crew to the federal payroll. 

That leads very quickly back to young Mr. Coombs.

Look for that name to come up more and more in the next few days.

On the Liberal side, people will likely cycle through some of the usual names.  There won’t be too many people from the metro area who are likely to come forward.

Peter Dawe is already being courted to sub for Paul Antle in St. John’s East federally next time so take them both off your list.

Jim Walsh has a previous engagement so he won’t be staging a political comeback soon.

Ralph Wiseman?

Way outside chance, but then again, your humble e-scribbler didn’t call Beth right for the senate seat.

Those are just the early names.  More are sure to turn up as the date for the by-election call gets closer.

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And the cliche gets it…

Senator Beth Marshall.

Here’s the view from January 19:

Beth Marshall would be too obvious just because all the spec puts her name up right next to the two Loyolas.  She’s at the point now where her name is on everyone’s list of nominees for everything. Watch out if the Pope drops dead tomorrow.  Local spec will have Beth in the running right behind the two Loyolas;  it’s gotten to be that much of a cliche.

An interesting choice if one that is remarkable for how cliche it really is.

Others have already pointed out that Marshall very publicly declined to join the ABC silliness. That obviously stood her in good stead for this plum.

Others, however, have also over-estimated her lack of connections to the local provincial Conservatives and how this might not help improve relations between the federal Connies and their provincial cousins.  Bear in mind she was handed the plum of over-seeing implementation of the Green report and has been a faithful party player on the House of Assembly management committee.

She’s tight enough with both the federal and provincial crews to serve as a bridge. And it’s not like she hasn’t got experience in changing her tune when it serves her partisan purpose as well.

Don’t be surprised if she goes to cabinet in short order or otherwise gets a neat job to facilitate the rapprochement. The anti-Ottawa hysteria that once was the local Connie stock-in-trade will quickly be a thing of the past.

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