The first poll by SES Research for the Canadian Parliamentary Affairs Channel (CPAC) shows the Liberals with the support of 37% of decided voters, up from 34% on the day the campaign started. The Conservatives are steady at 29% with the New Democrats dropping from 20% to 15%.
Margin of error for the national figures is 3.1% at the 95 percentile confidence interval.
The regional figures open up much wider margins of error and therefore are less reliable in indicating voter choices.
SES has developed a leadership index for ranking opinions of party leaders as to trust, competence and vision for Canada.
Paul Martin's cumulative score on the index is 84, compared to 58 for Stephen Harper, 39 for Gilles Duceppe and 25 for Jack Layton. The margin of error in each of the three categories is plus or minus 5%, therefore making the changes within the individual categories thus far statistically insignificant, even though on the cumulative score, Martin's number has gone from 76 on Monday to 84 on the last day on which polling data was collected. Martin is the only leader to have increased his leadership index by more than 5 %.
02 December 2005
GST rebate update 1
Two down.
Only 19, 998 to go in my bid to do what it takes to get $400 in GST rebates, should Stephen Harper make the leap to 24 Sussex Drive.
A large coffee at Tim's would go from the current local price of $1.50 to $1.48 under Harper's proposal.
Total GST savings on Day 1: four cents.
The bugger really wants my kidneys to work for the cash.
Only 19, 998 to go in my bid to do what it takes to get $400 in GST rebates, should Stephen Harper make the leap to 24 Sussex Drive.
A large coffee at Tim's would go from the current local price of $1.50 to $1.48 under Harper's proposal.
Total GST savings on Day 1: four cents.
The bugger really wants my kidneys to work for the cash.
Brave Soldier Hearn
There are some awfully funny comments from Conservative candidate Loyola Hearn is the following story from The Telegram.
Ordinarily, the story would have focused on the poll by Corporate Research Associates (CRA) showing the Liberals with a commanding lead in in Atlantic Canada and in this province in the federal election. The story would also have drawn big attention to the fact that the CRA poll found that Prime Minister Paul Martin is the party leader preferred by most Newfoundlanders and Labradorians. Obviously, CRA didn't poll Liam O'Brien.
Anyway, the funny bits are the ones where Loyola Hearn wants us all to believe that the poll is crap - it isn't - and that the federal Conservatives have a shot at winning John Efford's old seat in Avalon.
It's funny because Loyola should be focused on winning his own seat rather than fretting over who is going to represent the riding in which he lives.
It's funny because when Loyola says Efford had a free ride previously, Hearn is actually the guy who gave it to him. When faced with a choice as to which part of his old riding he wanted to represent in Ottawa, the supposed Connie heavyweight opted to run in St. John's and Mount Pearl. He thought he'd have an easy ride of it, himself.
Reality proved starkly different.
Everyone else has marked his riding as being definitely in play, a swing seat, likely to turn over even, because Mr. Hearn's margin of victory last time was less than 9% of the vote. Some contend it was less than 5% but I'll stick to my new number.
It was the toughest political fight of Hearn's life and Hearn's less than generous comments in victory attest to how much the former Brian Peckford cabinet minister was pissed off.
Then, to make matters worse, Hearn got trapped in the spring Harper effort to defeat the government. Tons of e-mails poured in demanding Hearn vote in favour of the offshore deal and put partisan issues aside. "Put province before party" they demanded.
The Connie reply was to vote in favour of the bill containing the offshore deal, before they then voted to bring down the government on another motion.
Faced with the choice, Hearn picked Harper over Hamilton Avenue and his choice may continue to haunt him.
And the bruised politician started musing about taking up fishing and giving up the political racket. As he told CBC News, "[h]ow long more to you stay around? That's the point...Another year from now, I might decide that I might want to go trouting too, you know."
For the record, here is the full Telegram story by Jamie Baker.
I am taking the risk of reprinting from their website since there is no permanent link I can use and after a couple of days this story will vanish from the Internet.
Friday, December 2, 2005
Battleground Avalon
By JAMIE BAKER, The Telegram page 1, above the fold.
A new poll predicts the Liberals would sweep all seven ridings in Newfoundland and Labrador if an election were held today, but that isn't dashing any Conservative hopes, especially in Avalon, where the party is promising a changing of the guard.
St. John'’s South-Mount Pearl Conservative incumbent Loyola Hearn dismisses the poll and says Avalon, the riding held by retiring Liberal cabinet minister John Efford, is ripe for the picking.
The three Liberal nominees for the riding are former provincial cabinet minister Art Reid, lawyer Bill Morrow and Avondale deputy mayor Bern Hickey. Hearn said he expects his party will announce its candidate -— it is rumoured provincial Independent PC MHA Fabian Manning is among those interested -— within a matter of days.
Targeted campaign
The riding is among the 20 across Canada targeted by the Conservatives as potentially winnable.
"We will win that riding," Hearn predicted, adding he believes even Efford could have been toppled at the height of his popularity had the challenges been more substantial.
"Efford had a free ride," he said.
"When he ran in the byelection, we ran Michelle Brazil against him, with no organization, nothing and she got 20-odd per cent of the vote. The last time we had a guy come into the campaign, again, with no organization, no money, he had never been involved in anything public like that — and he took 31 per cent of the vote."
"Imagine what a well-known person could have done,— and Efford was riding high at the time."
Avalon's Liberal riding president Stephen Crocker isn't convinced voters will act against the party out of displeasure over Efford's recent political troubles, which began in the heat of the Atlantic Accord battle.
In fact, Crocker is convinced they will look to Efford's list of federal accomplishments as a sign of what the party can do -— and has done -— for the riding.
"I don't think Mr. Efford's legacy was totally negative -— Mr. Efford did a lot of good stuff in his time in politics and I think that is what people will remember, "Crocker said. "The key to winning Avalon, obviously, is a strong campaign and getting the message out to people on where the party stands, where it has been and where it is going.”
If the recent poll conducted by Corporate Research Associates Inc. is to be believed, where the Liberals are going is, apparently, up.
Besides taking all seven seats in this province, the poll has the Liberals taking 25 of 32 seats in Atlantic Canada -— five seats are forecasted for the Conservatives and two for the NDP.
The numbers also show if the election were held now, 46 per cent of Atlantic Canadians said they would vote for the Liberals, 27 per cent Conservative, 18 per cent NDP, 16 per cent were undecided, and 10 per cent had no response or didn'‚’t plan to vote.
Province more Liberal: poll
In Newfoundland, the numbers were even more Liberal, with 50 per cent preferring the Liberals, 29 per cent Conservative and 10 per cent NDP with 19 per cent undecided ‚— those numbers are almost exactly the same as they were in a May 2004 poll conducted in this province prior to the last federal election.
Fifty-one per cent of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians also said they were very or mostly satisfied with the performance of the Martin government, up six per cent from May 2004; 39 per cent were either mostly or completely dissatisfied.
As far as leadership is concerned, 41 per cent of Atlantic Canadians prefer Paul Martin as prime minister compared to just 19 per cent for Stephen Harper and 17 per cent for Jack Layton.
In Newfoundland and Labrador, Martin attracted 44 per cent preference compared to 20 and 15 per cent respectively for Harper and Layton.
"That doesn't surprise me when you look at Mr. Harper's track record and where he stands on health care and so on," Crocker said. "I think health care is going to be a big issue in Avalon, and we all know Stephen Harper's record of supporting two-tier health care.”
With mostly rural areas in the riding, Hearn said attracting the right candidate would also be huge for any party's hopes of victory in ridings east of Montreal.
Unlike more urban areas where voters rarely know the candidate and vote based largely on policies and platforms, Hearn said the candidate is also very important when it comes to campaigning in Atlantic Canada.
"In Atlantic Canada, everybody knows who you are and if they don't know who you are, you'll be hard pressed to get the votes," Hearn observed. "That's why you need reasonably good candidates, someone who is known and well respected. It is very seldom you will see a well established individual doing poorly in an election."
"Voters want solid representation, somebody they know they can trust and somebody they know will do the work for them in Ottawa. Check the public record, Hansard, even watch CPAC, and you'll have an idea who's doing what for the province -— we have not been well-represented by a number of Liberals."”
While Hearn sees Avalon, his own district and St. John's East as potential winners for his party, the big battles, he said, will be getting the right people to take on a couple of other longtime Liberal incumbents Bill Matthews and Gerry Byrne.
"The challenge is really out there in Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte and Random-Burin-St. George's to have some good solid people come forward," Hearn said. "We have a great chance of forming government, and an extra seat or two in Newfoundland could be all it takes."
jbaker@thetelegram.com
Ordinarily, the story would have focused on the poll by Corporate Research Associates (CRA) showing the Liberals with a commanding lead in in Atlantic Canada and in this province in the federal election. The story would also have drawn big attention to the fact that the CRA poll found that Prime Minister Paul Martin is the party leader preferred by most Newfoundlanders and Labradorians. Obviously, CRA didn't poll Liam O'Brien.
Anyway, the funny bits are the ones where Loyola Hearn wants us all to believe that the poll is crap - it isn't - and that the federal Conservatives have a shot at winning John Efford's old seat in Avalon.
It's funny because Loyola should be focused on winning his own seat rather than fretting over who is going to represent the riding in which he lives.
It's funny because when Loyola says Efford had a free ride previously, Hearn is actually the guy who gave it to him. When faced with a choice as to which part of his old riding he wanted to represent in Ottawa, the supposed Connie heavyweight opted to run in St. John's and Mount Pearl. He thought he'd have an easy ride of it, himself.
Reality proved starkly different.
Everyone else has marked his riding as being definitely in play, a swing seat, likely to turn over even, because Mr. Hearn's margin of victory last time was less than 9% of the vote. Some contend it was less than 5% but I'll stick to my new number.
It was the toughest political fight of Hearn's life and Hearn's less than generous comments in victory attest to how much the former Brian Peckford cabinet minister was pissed off.
Then, to make matters worse, Hearn got trapped in the spring Harper effort to defeat the government. Tons of e-mails poured in demanding Hearn vote in favour of the offshore deal and put partisan issues aside. "Put province before party" they demanded.
The Connie reply was to vote in favour of the bill containing the offshore deal, before they then voted to bring down the government on another motion.
Faced with the choice, Hearn picked Harper over Hamilton Avenue and his choice may continue to haunt him.
And the bruised politician started musing about taking up fishing and giving up the political racket. As he told CBC News, "[h]ow long more to you stay around? That's the point...Another year from now, I might decide that I might want to go trouting too, you know."
For the record, here is the full Telegram story by Jamie Baker.
I am taking the risk of reprinting from their website since there is no permanent link I can use and after a couple of days this story will vanish from the Internet.
Friday, December 2, 2005
Battleground Avalon
By JAMIE BAKER, The Telegram page 1, above the fold.
A new poll predicts the Liberals would sweep all seven ridings in Newfoundland and Labrador if an election were held today, but that isn't dashing any Conservative hopes, especially in Avalon, where the party is promising a changing of the guard.
St. John'’s South-Mount Pearl Conservative incumbent Loyola Hearn dismisses the poll and says Avalon, the riding held by retiring Liberal cabinet minister John Efford, is ripe for the picking.
The three Liberal nominees for the riding are former provincial cabinet minister Art Reid, lawyer Bill Morrow and Avondale deputy mayor Bern Hickey. Hearn said he expects his party will announce its candidate -— it is rumoured provincial Independent PC MHA Fabian Manning is among those interested -— within a matter of days.
Targeted campaign
The riding is among the 20 across Canada targeted by the Conservatives as potentially winnable.
"We will win that riding," Hearn predicted, adding he believes even Efford could have been toppled at the height of his popularity had the challenges been more substantial.
"Efford had a free ride," he said.
"When he ran in the byelection, we ran Michelle Brazil against him, with no organization, nothing and she got 20-odd per cent of the vote. The last time we had a guy come into the campaign, again, with no organization, no money, he had never been involved in anything public like that — and he took 31 per cent of the vote."
"Imagine what a well-known person could have done,— and Efford was riding high at the time."
Avalon's Liberal riding president Stephen Crocker isn't convinced voters will act against the party out of displeasure over Efford's recent political troubles, which began in the heat of the Atlantic Accord battle.
In fact, Crocker is convinced they will look to Efford's list of federal accomplishments as a sign of what the party can do -— and has done -— for the riding.
"I don't think Mr. Efford's legacy was totally negative -— Mr. Efford did a lot of good stuff in his time in politics and I think that is what people will remember, "Crocker said. "The key to winning Avalon, obviously, is a strong campaign and getting the message out to people on where the party stands, where it has been and where it is going.”
If the recent poll conducted by Corporate Research Associates Inc. is to be believed, where the Liberals are going is, apparently, up.
Besides taking all seven seats in this province, the poll has the Liberals taking 25 of 32 seats in Atlantic Canada -— five seats are forecasted for the Conservatives and two for the NDP.
The numbers also show if the election were held now, 46 per cent of Atlantic Canadians said they would vote for the Liberals, 27 per cent Conservative, 18 per cent NDP, 16 per cent were undecided, and 10 per cent had no response or didn'‚’t plan to vote.
Province more Liberal: poll
In Newfoundland, the numbers were even more Liberal, with 50 per cent preferring the Liberals, 29 per cent Conservative and 10 per cent NDP with 19 per cent undecided ‚— those numbers are almost exactly the same as they were in a May 2004 poll conducted in this province prior to the last federal election.
Fifty-one per cent of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians also said they were very or mostly satisfied with the performance of the Martin government, up six per cent from May 2004; 39 per cent were either mostly or completely dissatisfied.
As far as leadership is concerned, 41 per cent of Atlantic Canadians prefer Paul Martin as prime minister compared to just 19 per cent for Stephen Harper and 17 per cent for Jack Layton.
In Newfoundland and Labrador, Martin attracted 44 per cent preference compared to 20 and 15 per cent respectively for Harper and Layton.
"That doesn't surprise me when you look at Mr. Harper's track record and where he stands on health care and so on," Crocker said. "I think health care is going to be a big issue in Avalon, and we all know Stephen Harper's record of supporting two-tier health care.”
With mostly rural areas in the riding, Hearn said attracting the right candidate would also be huge for any party's hopes of victory in ridings east of Montreal.
Unlike more urban areas where voters rarely know the candidate and vote based largely on policies and platforms, Hearn said the candidate is also very important when it comes to campaigning in Atlantic Canada.
"In Atlantic Canada, everybody knows who you are and if they don't know who you are, you'll be hard pressed to get the votes," Hearn observed. "That's why you need reasonably good candidates, someone who is known and well respected. It is very seldom you will see a well established individual doing poorly in an election."
"Voters want solid representation, somebody they know they can trust and somebody they know will do the work for them in Ottawa. Check the public record, Hansard, even watch CPAC, and you'll have an idea who's doing what for the province -— we have not been well-represented by a number of Liberals."”
While Hearn sees Avalon, his own district and St. John's East as potential winners for his party, the big battles, he said, will be getting the right people to take on a couple of other longtime Liberal incumbents Bill Matthews and Gerry Byrne.
"The challenge is really out there in Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte and Random-Burin-St. George's to have some good solid people come forward," Hearn said. "We have a great chance of forming government, and an extra seat or two in Newfoundland could be all it takes."
jbaker@thetelegram.com
Norm Doyle - CBC Radio news
Since there was no link available for the earlier posting on Norm Doyle, let me tell everyone that Norm backed the call for a free-vote on equal marriage in an interview with CBC Radio.
When I can get the quote and the story as a link, I'll post it.
In the meantime, be amused at the latest evidence that when someone has nothing constructive or factual to say, someone will just make stuff up.
Then read the post about the GST. Negative campaigning raised to a new high.
or is it low?
When I can get the quote and the story as a link, I'll post it.
In the meantime, be amused at the latest evidence that when someone has nothing constructive or factual to say, someone will just make stuff up.
Then read the post about the GST. Negative campaigning raised to a new high.
or is it low?
A large double double view
Canadians will get this really easily.
A large Timmies in Newfoundland and Labrador will set you back $1.50. That the Canadian standard - large, double double - and taking in the harmonized provincial and federal sales taxes.
If Stephen Harper is elected, my Timmies will go to $1.48, for a total savings of two friggin' cents a cup.
It will take 20, 000 cups of coffee to reach the $400 in GST savings Harper claims his proposal will plunk in my pocket.
I better get started.
That's a lot of coffee.
A large Timmies in Newfoundland and Labrador will set you back $1.50. That the Canadian standard - large, double double - and taking in the harmonized provincial and federal sales taxes.
If Stephen Harper is elected, my Timmies will go to $1.48, for a total savings of two friggin' cents a cup.
It will take 20, 000 cups of coffee to reach the $400 in GST savings Harper claims his proposal will plunk in my pocket.
I better get started.
That's a lot of coffee.
Cutting the GST - the Andrew Coyne view
Courtesy of Paul Wells, comes an old column by Andrew Coyne, arguing that cutting the GST is actually a bad idea.
Cut other taxes instead.
And while we are on it, here's a story from CBC Liam O'Brien won't be quoting any too soon. Economists are criticizing the GST cuts proposal.
There have been plenty of those stories.
Plus there have been positive stories quoting people in the restaurant business. Ok. But cutting the GST by two percent - five years from now - isn't going to do a single thing to put one more bum in one more seat in one more restaurant across Canada.
Think about it.
The proposed cuts will give me the kind of cash - 40 freakin' cents off a $20 meal tab - that make me feel like going down to cross the harbour here in St. John's and buy up a few newspapers.
And it will happen two full years after Harper gets elected.
And after Harper repeals equal marriage.
If he gets elected.
Cut other taxes instead.
And while we are on it, here's a story from CBC Liam O'Brien won't be quoting any too soon. Economists are criticizing the GST cuts proposal.
There have been plenty of those stories.
Plus there have been positive stories quoting people in the restaurant business. Ok. But cutting the GST by two percent - five years from now - isn't going to do a single thing to put one more bum in one more seat in one more restaurant across Canada.
Think about it.
The proposed cuts will give me the kind of cash - 40 freakin' cents off a $20 meal tab - that make me feel like going down to cross the harbour here in St. John's and buy up a few newspapers.
And it will happen two full years after Harper gets elected.
And after Harper repeals equal marriage.
If he gets elected.
Norm Doyle appears - or is it Homer?
The high- spending Connie candidate in St. John's East emerged today for the first time in a while.
His choice topic? Backing Stephen Harper in opposing equal marriage.
Shag the Constitution.
Shag the Supreme Court.
Shag equality.
Shag common sense and the fact we managed to put this issue behind us.
Norm and his boss, Stephen Harper want to re-open the debate on equal marriage.
Way to go Normie.
Where should we send the cheque for all your help?
His choice topic? Backing Stephen Harper in opposing equal marriage.
Shag the Constitution.
Shag the Supreme Court.
Shag equality.
Shag common sense and the fact we managed to put this issue behind us.
Norm and his boss, Stephen Harper want to re-open the debate on equal marriage.
Way to go Normie.
Where should we send the cheque for all your help?
CBC buggers the facts - swing seats
Hey guys, I know it's a challenge to run a website, but at least use the cut and paste.
St. John's South-Mount Pearl.
Connies took it by 8.9% last time.
That's below the 10% CBC is using to define a swing seat.
And if I recall correctly, CBC should also include St. John's North, which is now known once again as St. John's East. The margin in that neck of the local woods was damned close too.
Thanks to Liam O'Brien, official Connie propagandist on the Island for putting me on to this little error by the Ceeb. In his efforts to attack some of my earlier he comments, Liam tossed the CBC out as a source to contradict me on which seats are close.
D'oh!
The factually-challenged Connies were done in, in this instance, by someone else's dodgy facts. minor error, but as we have seen with Jason Kenney sometimes one can build an entire chunk of a campaign on stuff that is basically made up.
As my daughter used to say: "Oh deeuh".
St. John's South-Mount Pearl.
Connies took it by 8.9% last time.
That's below the 10% CBC is using to define a swing seat.
And if I recall correctly, CBC should also include St. John's North, which is now known once again as St. John's East. The margin in that neck of the local woods was damned close too.
Thanks to Liam O'Brien, official Connie propagandist on the Island for putting me on to this little error by the Ceeb. In his efforts to attack some of my earlier he comments, Liam tossed the CBC out as a source to contradict me on which seats are close.
D'oh!
The factually-challenged Connies were done in, in this instance, by someone else's dodgy facts. minor error, but as we have seen with Jason Kenney sometimes one can build an entire chunk of a campaign on stuff that is basically made up.
As my daughter used to say: "Oh deeuh".
01 December 2005
Has anyone seen Loyola?
No point in looking here.
Seems like the Man from Renews (about two hours drive outside the riding he represented in Ottawa) thinks he's still in the last campaign.
That's the one where he ducked every interview he could duck, refused to debate the other candidates and generally seemed to go over the fence for most of the campaign.
At one point, his opponents seriously considered sending out search parties.
His reward last time? The nearest run election of his life.
His reward this time? Maybe a federal pension to go with the provincial one he already collects.
Seems like the Man from Renews (about two hours drive outside the riding he represented in Ottawa) thinks he's still in the last campaign.
That's the one where he ducked every interview he could duck, refused to debate the other candidates and generally seemed to go over the fence for most of the campaign.
At one point, his opponents seriously considered sending out search parties.
His reward last time? The nearest run election of his life.
His reward this time? Maybe a federal pension to go with the provincial one he already collects.
When the leader undermines his own candidates
From nottawa, comes this set of comments by Jack Layton that by voting for third place candidates, voters can elect a Conservative instead.
Ok.
The math works in some ridings where Jack is ahead.
But in St. John's East and St.John's South-Mount Pearl, Jack seems to be working to get Liberals elected.
How odd.
Of course, there is no small irony in the fact that Jack pushed for this election so that, in some cases, like say eastern Newfoundland, he'll be electing candidates whose party is now committed to cracking open the equal marriage debate, yet again.
The noise you hear in Ottawa is Peg Norman pounding her head against the wall at her campaign office.
Ok.
The math works in some ridings where Jack is ahead.
But in St. John's East and St.John's South-Mount Pearl, Jack seems to be working to get Liberals elected.
How odd.
Of course, there is no small irony in the fact that Jack pushed for this election so that, in some cases, like say eastern Newfoundland, he'll be electing candidates whose party is now committed to cracking open the equal marriage debate, yet again.
The noise you hear in Ottawa is Peg Norman pounding her head against the wall at her campaign office.
More curious Connie math comments
Check here for a Canadian Press story on the math behind the proposed GST cut and some other comments on the Harper proposal.
But get a load of this section, in particular:
*"For an average family of four with an income of $60,000 a year, this would mean about $400 less in taxes - savings they will see every time they go to the gas station, the shopping mall or a restaurant," Harper said.
"When the GST cut is fully implemented, the total benefit will, of course, be much greater."
Liberals argued that the first-year savings would be closer to $250, basing their claims on Statistics Canada numbers that indicate a typical family earning $60,000 makes taxable purchases worth about $25,000 a year.
Such a family would have to spend upwards of $40,000 in order to realize $400 in savings in the first year - a number that's not unreasonable, the Conservatives countered.*
Ok. A combined family income of $60, 000 a year making $40,000 in GST-related purchases a year. That leaves only $20, 000 to pay provincial, federal and municipal taxes, Canadian Pension Plan contributions and Employment Insurance premiums, a few bucks for the pension and maybe some cash for the kid's education. Surely I've left something out.
Even if I haven't, then at the end of the five years, once the Stephen Harper GST cut comes through, I'll have an extra $400 in cash. That's 0.6% of the gross annual income of this fictitious family.
Move over Donald Trump.
But get a load of this section, in particular:
*"For an average family of four with an income of $60,000 a year, this would mean about $400 less in taxes - savings they will see every time they go to the gas station, the shopping mall or a restaurant," Harper said.
"When the GST cut is fully implemented, the total benefit will, of course, be much greater."
Liberals argued that the first-year savings would be closer to $250, basing their claims on Statistics Canada numbers that indicate a typical family earning $60,000 makes taxable purchases worth about $25,000 a year.
Such a family would have to spend upwards of $40,000 in order to realize $400 in savings in the first year - a number that's not unreasonable, the Conservatives countered.*
Ok. A combined family income of $60, 000 a year making $40,000 in GST-related purchases a year. That leaves only $20, 000 to pay provincial, federal and municipal taxes, Canadian Pension Plan contributions and Employment Insurance premiums, a few bucks for the pension and maybe some cash for the kid's education. Surely I've left something out.
Even if I haven't, then at the end of the five years, once the Stephen Harper GST cut comes through, I'll have an extra $400 in cash. That's 0.6% of the gross annual income of this fictitious family.
Move over Donald Trump.
Tax rhetoric for Connies
Over at RGL, Liam is predictably ecstatic about the GST cut proposal from Stephen Harper and seemingly perplexed by my comments earlier today. And since he's in full Connie campaign mode, Liam has to embellish my comments and add his own twists of meaning to everything.
Set up the straw man and knock 'em down.
Or should we take this as a hold-over from Liam's previous career as a journalist when he admits sitting in meetings where reporters plotted to get someone they didn't like?
Sticking to the facts and the issues are never good enough for some people.
But let's deal with the issues in reverse order:
3. In order to change the Harmonised Sales Tax, Liam, the three Atlantic provinces that are party to the deal all must agree.
My question was simple: did Harper check with Loyola Sullivan and da byes before springing this tax cut thingy out the door? This is a huge issue for federal provincial relations and contains a disturbing echo of Harper's pledge last time to alter equalization radically - and unilaterally.
That's really the key point. The Atlantic provinces would lose cash, at least as it looks to me, but hey on this point, I am willing to admit I could be wrong. Maybe there won't be any revenue loss for the provinces. But let someone show me some facts.
At least, I can admit when I may be off base. With Jason Kenney, he can only continue to make ludicrous accusations...and stick to them despite his own admissions he has no evidence to support his manic claims.
In the meantime, let's see if there actually was any consultation at all with the three provinces using HST before the Harper announcement.
2. Why wait five years to drop two points? Liam doesn't really answer this one at all, but it is a question that screams for an answer almost as loudly as the one about Harperian unilateralism. If Harper is going to slash the GST by two points, sure it will cost billions, but why the slow drop? There is no logical explanation why Harper can drop a few billion in revenue in one year and then take four years to chop the rest.
1. Why not zero? It's a simple, rhetorical question. If Harper can drop the GST by two points over five years, why not hack it even further? In for a penny, in for a pound.
And before Liam trots out the tried 1993 Chretien promise, let's just face facts - as Liam says, the GST is a source of considerable cash for the feds. We needed it in 1993 to pay off the huge debt load run up by previous governments, including the Gucci-level spending of the Mulroney Tories. Now that we are in good fiscal shape - thanks to Paulie Martin - then maybe we can look at different tax relief measures as part of the reward for the lean times.
Too late. He uses that tired old chestnut repeatedly. Liam even claims Liberals lied in 1993. To lie means to tell a falsehood knowingly. Like saying that Newfoundland government oil money is sucked off to Ottawa when, in fact, as the premier admitted, he collected and kept every cent. Gee, the fact truck never seems to make a stop in Connie-land.
Rather than the rhetoric of the parties, though, I am going to watch closely for comments from the business community and the public on this one.
Set up the straw man and knock 'em down.
Or should we take this as a hold-over from Liam's previous career as a journalist when he admits sitting in meetings where reporters plotted to get someone they didn't like?
Sticking to the facts and the issues are never good enough for some people.
But let's deal with the issues in reverse order:
3. In order to change the Harmonised Sales Tax, Liam, the three Atlantic provinces that are party to the deal all must agree.
My question was simple: did Harper check with Loyola Sullivan and da byes before springing this tax cut thingy out the door? This is a huge issue for federal provincial relations and contains a disturbing echo of Harper's pledge last time to alter equalization radically - and unilaterally.
That's really the key point. The Atlantic provinces would lose cash, at least as it looks to me, but hey on this point, I am willing to admit I could be wrong. Maybe there won't be any revenue loss for the provinces. But let someone show me some facts.
At least, I can admit when I may be off base. With Jason Kenney, he can only continue to make ludicrous accusations...and stick to them despite his own admissions he has no evidence to support his manic claims.
In the meantime, let's see if there actually was any consultation at all with the three provinces using HST before the Harper announcement.
2. Why wait five years to drop two points? Liam doesn't really answer this one at all, but it is a question that screams for an answer almost as loudly as the one about Harperian unilateralism. If Harper is going to slash the GST by two points, sure it will cost billions, but why the slow drop? There is no logical explanation why Harper can drop a few billion in revenue in one year and then take four years to chop the rest.
1. Why not zero? It's a simple, rhetorical question. If Harper can drop the GST by two points over five years, why not hack it even further? In for a penny, in for a pound.
And before Liam trots out the tried 1993 Chretien promise, let's just face facts - as Liam says, the GST is a source of considerable cash for the feds. We needed it in 1993 to pay off the huge debt load run up by previous governments, including the Gucci-level spending of the Mulroney Tories. Now that we are in good fiscal shape - thanks to Paulie Martin - then maybe we can look at different tax relief measures as part of the reward for the lean times.
Too late. He uses that tired old chestnut repeatedly. Liam even claims Liberals lied in 1993. To lie means to tell a falsehood knowingly. Like saying that Newfoundland government oil money is sucked off to Ottawa when, in fact, as the premier admitted, he collected and kept every cent. Gee, the fact truck never seems to make a stop in Connie-land.
Rather than the rhetoric of the parties, though, I am going to watch closely for comments from the business community and the public on this one.
Weather office wonderments
Pressure for the relocation of the weather office back to Gander continues to mount.
But here's a bit of information to ponder.
Weather forecasting takes two things: data and analysis.
The data comes from sites spread across an area. Most of it is transmitted by automated collection stations both on- and offshore.
The analysis can be done anywhere.
So is the issue with the weather office in Gander about the accuracy of the forecasts or about where people get paid to read the numbers? The accuracy of the forecasts might just have to do with a lack of sufficient automated data collection sites around the province, especially in the northeast and Labrador.
If it's about where people do the analysis, then the weather office could be in Rangoon and still get the local forecasting here spot on. After all, Gander used to forecast for Nain and the people in Nain never complained about things.
But here's a bit of information to ponder.
Weather forecasting takes two things: data and analysis.
The data comes from sites spread across an area. Most of it is transmitted by automated collection stations both on- and offshore.
The analysis can be done anywhere.
So is the issue with the weather office in Gander about the accuracy of the forecasts or about where people get paid to read the numbers? The accuracy of the forecasts might just have to do with a lack of sufficient automated data collection sites around the province, especially in the northeast and Labrador.
If it's about where people do the analysis, then the weather office could be in Rangoon and still get the local forecasting here spot on. After all, Gander used to forecast for Nain and the people in Nain never complained about things.
Why not zero? Why not right now?
Stephen Harper's first big election announcement - aside from hiring Ken Starr - is to drop the Goods and Services Tax from its current seven per cent to five percent.
Here's the catch - he'll drop it over the course of five years.
Here's my question: why five years?
Here's my second question: why stop at five? Why not just axe the thing altogether? If Ottawa has so much cash floating around, why wouldn't Harper just drop the GST to zero?
Here's a third question, just to add to the pile: Has Steve cleared this idea with the Atlantic provinces? They'd have to agreed to change the Harmonized Sales Tax. They also stand to lose a few bucks in the process.
Here's the catch - he'll drop it over the course of five years.
Here's my question: why five years?
Here's my second question: why stop at five? Why not just axe the thing altogether? If Ottawa has so much cash floating around, why wouldn't Harper just drop the GST to zero?
Here's a third question, just to add to the pile: Has Steve cleared this idea with the Atlantic provinces? They'd have to agreed to change the Harmonized Sales Tax. They also stand to lose a few bucks in the process.
Election quickies
1. JK Note to self: Douse self in gasoline on national television. Light Match. Apply match to own arm, leg or other available body part.
Conservative Jason Kenney had yet another factual meltdown with Mike Duffy last night.
Negative campaigning is designed to suppress the other guys vote. Kenney missed the part of Konnie Kampaign Kollege where it was explained that neg has to be based on fact. Based on fact, a negative will stick and have effect.
Bullshit, like napalm, sticks. 'Cept it sticks to the one that flung the bullshit. That's an effect you don't want, Jason.
Kenney himself has admitted there is no evidence to support his whacked out claims of high level corruption in the finance department, which Kenney quickly points out are not actually accusations of high level corruption.
Funniest moment with Puffy: when the Puffster's crackberry went off TWICE with e-mails from the Liberal Fact-ory, popularly known as the war room, setting the record straight.
One smack for Jason was funny. Two was hysterical.
Self-imolation on national TV as a campaign strategy. Something tells me that one won't be catching on like blogging.
Bond Papers Prediction: RCMP will find no basis for a criminal investigation.
NDP and Connies will hint strongly that even the Queen's Cowboys are on the take to Paul's Crew.
2. What's love got to do with it? Jason Kenney is apparently upset with Liberal "attacks on his Fearless Leader. The attacks - unlike Kenney's lunatic smears - raised questions about Kenney's boss based on facts, specifically, Harper's answer to the simple question: "Do you love this country?"
Harper's answer: ""Well, I said Canada is a great country. You know, all of us who get involved in public life spend a lot of time away from our families to go across the country, probably get in many ways the most rewarding experience you could have, you know. It's not tourist travel, you don't see all the hot spots and all the great sights but you get a real sense -- the kind old and the of traveling I've done, especially the last seven or eight months, you get a real sense of Canadians, where they live, who they are and what their challenges are. And I think the country has unlimited potential. That's why I think it would be so exciting to take over at this point in our history. But I think it's necessary to make a change if we're going to realize that potential."
My answer, if asked the same question: "Yes."
Maybe, "Of course".
It wasn't an essay question .
3. Upping the birthrate, the Tory way. Nova Scotia Premier John Hamm wants a tax break to encourage people to have more babies.
Whatever floats yer boat, there, John, bye, but dropping taxes so more Canadian males drop trou' is bordering on something a bit too kinky.
Call me weird.
A thong, high heels, and soft music usually work for me.
4. Our very own Ken Starr. The factual gulf between Stephen Harper and Peter MacKay, DDS is being more widely reported. Find a version of it on Mark Watton's blog.
We are starting to see the outlines of a strategy devised by Harper's games theory buddies: if we know you will commit "X" number of mistakes during the campaign and a big one towards the end is deadly (like last time), then let's deliberately shag up in the front of the campaign.
That way, statistically, we have nothing but good stuff to happen for the part of the campaign closest to voting day.
Conservative Jason Kenney had yet another factual meltdown with Mike Duffy last night.
Negative campaigning is designed to suppress the other guys vote. Kenney missed the part of Konnie Kampaign Kollege where it was explained that neg has to be based on fact. Based on fact, a negative will stick and have effect.
Bullshit, like napalm, sticks. 'Cept it sticks to the one that flung the bullshit. That's an effect you don't want, Jason.
Kenney himself has admitted there is no evidence to support his whacked out claims of high level corruption in the finance department, which Kenney quickly points out are not actually accusations of high level corruption.
Funniest moment with Puffy: when the Puffster's crackberry went off TWICE with e-mails from the Liberal Fact-ory, popularly known as the war room, setting the record straight.
One smack for Jason was funny. Two was hysterical.
Self-imolation on national TV as a campaign strategy. Something tells me that one won't be catching on like blogging.
Bond Papers Prediction: RCMP will find no basis for a criminal investigation.
NDP and Connies will hint strongly that even the Queen's Cowboys are on the take to Paul's Crew.
2. What's love got to do with it? Jason Kenney is apparently upset with Liberal "attacks on his Fearless Leader. The attacks - unlike Kenney's lunatic smears - raised questions about Kenney's boss based on facts, specifically, Harper's answer to the simple question: "Do you love this country?"
Harper's answer: ""Well, I said Canada is a great country. You know, all of us who get involved in public life spend a lot of time away from our families to go across the country, probably get in many ways the most rewarding experience you could have, you know. It's not tourist travel, you don't see all the hot spots and all the great sights but you get a real sense -- the kind old and the of traveling I've done, especially the last seven or eight months, you get a real sense of Canadians, where they live, who they are and what their challenges are. And I think the country has unlimited potential. That's why I think it would be so exciting to take over at this point in our history. But I think it's necessary to make a change if we're going to realize that potential."
My answer, if asked the same question: "Yes."
Maybe, "Of course".
It wasn't an essay question .
3. Upping the birthrate, the Tory way. Nova Scotia Premier John Hamm wants a tax break to encourage people to have more babies.
Whatever floats yer boat, there, John, bye, but dropping taxes so more Canadian males drop trou' is bordering on something a bit too kinky.
Call me weird.
A thong, high heels, and soft music usually work for me.
4. Our very own Ken Starr. The factual gulf between Stephen Harper and Peter MacKay, DDS is being more widely reported. Find a version of it on Mark Watton's blog.
We are starting to see the outlines of a strategy devised by Harper's games theory buddies: if we know you will commit "X" number of mistakes during the campaign and a big one towards the end is deadly (like last time), then let's deliberately shag up in the front of the campaign.
That way, statistically, we have nothing but good stuff to happen for the part of the campaign closest to voting day.
Danny Williams' letter to Santa
Tabled in the House of Assembly yesterday, here is a copy of Danny Williams letter to the federal party leaders.
The Premier likes to point out the success of his last such letter during the 2004 election.
Here's what actually happened:
The PM didn't respond to the letter. He stayed at the negotiating table and worked out the deal the Premier eventually signed.
Stephen Harper flatly rejected the premier's ideas on every level. If you doubt me, I'll post Harper's reply.
Jack Layton is the only guy who endorsed the Premier's position to the "t".
It'll be interesting to see what happens this time out.
The Premier likes to point out the success of his last such letter during the 2004 election.
Here's what actually happened:
The PM didn't respond to the letter. He stayed at the negotiating table and worked out the deal the Premier eventually signed.
Stephen Harper flatly rejected the premier's ideas on every level. If you doubt me, I'll post Harper's reply.
Jack Layton is the only guy who endorsed the Premier's position to the "t".
It'll be interesting to see what happens this time out.
30 November 2005
SES Research - the pollster to watch
Building on the success of analysis for the Canadian parliamentary channel CPAC, pollster SES Research is launching a new nightly tracking survey during this election.
To keep abreast of the latest, accurate numbers, tune in or go to the the SES website.
To keep abreast of the latest, accurate numbers, tune in or go to the the SES website.
Rolling in the aisles
That's what voters in Newfoundland and Labrador will be doing when they read the story from the Globe and Mail that the federal Conservatives have targeted the riding of Avalon as a seat they can win in the upcoming election.
Minor problem: the Conservatives don't have a candidate there yet - despite obvious signs that john Efford wasn't running again. Last time things were so desperate that even John Crosbie mused about coming back to elected politics. That is, he mused about it until his wife, Jane, got wind of the windy former minister's bluster. Crosbie quickly pulled his horns in and went back to writing bitter tripe for a mainland newspaper chain that also boasts the wit if not the wisdom of bitter former cabinet minister Sheila Copps.
Popular local member of the House of Assembly Fabian Manning is being courted by the federal Conservatives. Outside the legislature the other day Manning gave a dozen solid reasons why he wouldn't seek the nomination. Then, Manning said he was still 50/50 and thinking about it. Unless Harper makes Fabe an offer he can't refuse, count on Manning staying put.
Meanwhile, the Conservatives held onto their two seats in Newfoundland and Labrador by a mere five percent last time out. Incumbents Loyola Hearn and Norm Doyle took a drubbing after the election for their stance on the offshore revenue deal. They voted for it before they voted against it and that tested the tolerance of even some staunch Tories.
Such was the din of disapproval that Hearn mused about going off fishing rather than run again. Doyle blamed "Liberal spin doctors" in St. John's for his problems. Try as I might, I couldn't get Norm to blame me personally.
If nothing else, the Globe piece represents putting a brave face on things. Go back to the polls and check the seat counters. Every scenario based on current numbers show the Conservatives losing seats in this election. Even in the Globe story, the Connie insiders admit that they expect to lose seats in the West to New Democrats.
They may lose seats in other places too, just like it is possible the Conservatives will pick up a bunch. If it nets out to fewer seats on The Day, then this election may well have been for naught.
Minor problem: the Conservatives don't have a candidate there yet - despite obvious signs that john Efford wasn't running again. Last time things were so desperate that even John Crosbie mused about coming back to elected politics. That is, he mused about it until his wife, Jane, got wind of the windy former minister's bluster. Crosbie quickly pulled his horns in and went back to writing bitter tripe for a mainland newspaper chain that also boasts the wit if not the wisdom of bitter former cabinet minister Sheila Copps.
Popular local member of the House of Assembly Fabian Manning is being courted by the federal Conservatives. Outside the legislature the other day Manning gave a dozen solid reasons why he wouldn't seek the nomination. Then, Manning said he was still 50/50 and thinking about it. Unless Harper makes Fabe an offer he can't refuse, count on Manning staying put.
Meanwhile, the Conservatives held onto their two seats in Newfoundland and Labrador by a mere five percent last time out. Incumbents Loyola Hearn and Norm Doyle took a drubbing after the election for their stance on the offshore revenue deal. They voted for it before they voted against it and that tested the tolerance of even some staunch Tories.
Such was the din of disapproval that Hearn mused about going off fishing rather than run again. Doyle blamed "Liberal spin doctors" in St. John's for his problems. Try as I might, I couldn't get Norm to blame me personally.
If nothing else, the Globe piece represents putting a brave face on things. Go back to the polls and check the seat counters. Every scenario based on current numbers show the Conservatives losing seats in this election. Even in the Globe story, the Connie insiders admit that they expect to lose seats in the West to New Democrats.
They may lose seats in other places too, just like it is possible the Conservatives will pick up a bunch. If it nets out to fewer seats on The Day, then this election may well have been for naught.
Election notes on a slow second day
Grewal is out. Geez, what a surprise.
Harper plans to campaign on cleaning up government, getting tough on crime and lowering taxes.
When you look at those three items (oh yeah and he mentioned Gomery but not by name), consider the poll by the Strategic Counsel and the issues that are important to Canadians. Corruption is the second largest issue for Canadians, but only 13% of Canadians. taxes are a concern for 5% of those polled. That's it. 5%. 'Tough on crime" or anything like it doesn't register.
Now in the past, some Connie bloggers have taken to bashing Allan Gregg over the head for being a sell-out. That is, they bash him when his polls give them numbers they don't like. I just note that the correlations or in some cases lack of correlations are interesting.
For my part, I am not sure that any of these points are vote tippers - that is, I am not sure which ones are the basis on which people will tip their vote one way or another.
Then over at CTV, you can find this comment from the Conservative leader on re-opening the equal marriage debate. Note the comment that Harper brought the issue up after his staff cut off the question period. It's a safe issue for Harper: Connies love it and he doesn't lose any votes by sticking with it. By contrast, shifting his position would mean that he'd actually lose the hard-core right wing, on which the whole right movement is built. Heck, he'd even have nominated candidates walking away from him if he stood up for equal marriage.
While I may disagree with his his stand, Harper's political posture is smart politics for him.
Meanwhile, the Globe is putting a dark cast on the story, highlighting the problems with re-opening a contentious issue from the last election. The National Lampoon is telling it as a great move forward, by protecting gay couples who are already married, even if parliament at some undefined point decides to repeal the equal marriage bill.
Harper plans to campaign on cleaning up government, getting tough on crime and lowering taxes.
When you look at those three items (oh yeah and he mentioned Gomery but not by name), consider the poll by the Strategic Counsel and the issues that are important to Canadians. Corruption is the second largest issue for Canadians, but only 13% of Canadians. taxes are a concern for 5% of those polled. That's it. 5%. 'Tough on crime" or anything like it doesn't register.
Now in the past, some Connie bloggers have taken to bashing Allan Gregg over the head for being a sell-out. That is, they bash him when his polls give them numbers they don't like. I just note that the correlations or in some cases lack of correlations are interesting.
For my part, I am not sure that any of these points are vote tippers - that is, I am not sure which ones are the basis on which people will tip their vote one way or another.
Then over at CTV, you can find this comment from the Conservative leader on re-opening the equal marriage debate. Note the comment that Harper brought the issue up after his staff cut off the question period. It's a safe issue for Harper: Connies love it and he doesn't lose any votes by sticking with it. By contrast, shifting his position would mean that he'd actually lose the hard-core right wing, on which the whole right movement is built. Heck, he'd even have nominated candidates walking away from him if he stood up for equal marriage.
While I may disagree with his his stand, Harper's political posture is smart politics for him.
Meanwhile, the Globe is putting a dark cast on the story, highlighting the problems with re-opening a contentious issue from the last election. The National Lampoon is telling it as a great move forward, by protecting gay couples who are already married, even if parliament at some undefined point decides to repeal the equal marriage bill.
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