Do they think before they speak?

1. Loyola "Rain Man" Sullivan, trying desperately to crush rumours that he and Danny had a tiff: "I haven't had any, you know, pressures or interferences in doing my job from the premier or anybody in there."

A finance minister that just went to work, did his job and never felt any pressure from anyone on anything.

Utter nonsense like that claim can hardly dispel the rumours, caused by Sullivan's own "f u" to Danny on the way out.

How many times have they been on completely opposite sides of issues now, including the day Loyola walked?

2. Liberal party president Danny Dumaresque, commenting on getting ready for the next provincial election. vocm.com attributes this to him: "He says the Districts of Kilbride and Ferryland have been in Tory hands for more than 30 years. Dumaresque says even when the Liberals were in power, there wasn't a lot of interest in those areas."

Even if it was true, you wouldn't admit it.

Since Dumaresque said something completely different only a few weeks ago, this line just fuels the Tories' confidence. It fuels the perception that the Liberals don't stand a chance or worse, that the party executive has already written off a raft of seats.

Look for the Other Danny to quickly move to dispel any misperceptions resulting from comments he shouldn't have made.

'007: Year of Bond

Thanks to Ted Blades of CBC Radio's On the Go for that little gem.

He was referring to James Bond.

Around here, we'd have a different idea.

"Bond. Robert Bond."

But hey, we like the sound of it: The Year of Bond!

Since January 3 marks the second anniversary of Bond Papers (1560 posts later), Ted's observation came just in time.

Christmas money

In December, the provincial government announced cash for a number of projects.

1. Public Service Pension Plan. Then-finance minister Loyola Sullivan announced the provincial government borrowed $400 million to address the unfunded liability in the provincial public service pension plan (PSPP). The money was borrowed at 4.5% interest over a 30 year term.

The news release on December 6 mentioned another unspecified amount would be borrowed before the end of the fiscal year (31 March 2007)

It will be interesting to see if the provincial government carries out the planned borrowing and, if so, what the amount will be.

2. Economic development. InTRD minister Trevor Taylor announced money on December 28 for economic development, disbursed from a $5.0 million fund already established.

About $12, 000 will be spent to conduct a test fishery on shark-catching as a tourism venture. This sounds great as a tourism idea but as an environmentally-sensitive project it seems a bit dodgy. Shark fishing may attract anglers, but there is no indication if the sharks are dumped - inevitably dead - back into the ocean or if there has been any thought given to use the shark flesh for any type of subsequent commercial use.

Taylor also announced the province would drop the princely sum of $1875 - yes, that's all the digits, Virginia - into a study on using water from Gisborne Lake as a source for bottled water. As the release put it:

The [local development] association hopes that by making available details of the lake and the surrounding infrastructure, local development officers will be able to use the study as a prospectus to attract businesses to the area to develop a local water bottling industry.

Like no one has thought of Gisborne Lake for such a purpose before. The last time out, a private-sector venture foundered over concerns about impact exporting water in bulk from Gisborne Lake would have on water under the North American Free Trade Agreement. The federal government eventually banned bulk exports of water in 1999. The provincial government joined in but talked about lifting its own ban in 2001.

The general characteristics of the lake are well known, so one must wonder why the provincial government must spend any cash at all on this venture. In 1998, then-opposition critic Tom Osborne questioned the bulk export proposal but indicated his party favoured bottling water for export.

Fair enough.

But there just doesn't seem to be a demand for exporting bottled water. If there was, surely someone would have invested in it by now.

If that wasn't enough, there are always the environmental and ethical issues now being raised about bottled drinking water.

Maybe there are good reasons why the provincial government is investing such a paltry sum. Of course, that still wouldn't explain the tardiness of the Williams' bunch from bringing forward the sustainable development act mentioned in the infamous Blue Book. The new legislation was to be a major accomplishment of the first term.

Back in 2003, Danny Williams believed there was "a brief window of opportunity to legislate a balanced development strategy for this Province that protects water resources, assures fair benefits for the Province, and provides a hospitable and competitive environment for investors."

Williams categorically rejected bulk exports but did commit that:

We will legislate a water resource development strategy that adheres to the following principles:

* Sound management and sustainable development of fresh water resources.

* Development of a fully integrated water resource industry, which includes value-added processing in the Province.

* A fair regime for assessing royalties and taxes, procurement of goods and services in the Province, and first consideration for Newfoundlanders and Labradorians in employment and related training.

* Promotion of local ownership and local investment in the development of the primary resource and related industries.

When these policies are enshrined in law and their intent expressed in every government-industry agreement to develop our water resources, this Province and businesses in this Province will have the opportunity to become global players in what may well become the most important resource industry in the world.

There is still time. If Danny and his cabinet get busy they have 10 months to deliver.

Sullivan spec update

As one might expect, New Year's parties across the province were abuzz with speculation about Loyola Sullivan's surprise resignation on Friday.

The one thing everyone agreed on: his official reasons are bogus.

The weekend spec ranged from Loyola is running to replace Norm Doyle as Connie member of parliament in St. John's North to spec that Loyola will be replacing the Other Loyola in St. John's South Mount Pearl.

Possibly... but there was no reason to resign so abruptly if that was the goal. If - and it is a big if - Rain Man wants to head for Ottawa, he'll do that as a separate issue from his surprising resignation from cabinet and the House of Assembly.

Some other speculation held that Loyola's name will turn up prominently in future House of Assembly reports.

Again, possibly.

But that issue wouldn't require his resignation in the middle of the holidays.

Nope.

So far, the speculation hasn't been able to come up with a plausible explanation for the dramatic departure which even Danny Williams admitted caught him by surprise. Yes, the man who stated relentlessly that he respected Loyola got one up the political back passage. And on the other side, the guy who insisted his relationship with the Boss was great, managed to leave office in the way calculated to fuck up The Boss big time.

Yessirree. A phone call at 10 o'clock the night before to say little more than: "Danny, boy... I am blowin' this popsicle stand and you have less than 12 hours to figure out how to cope with it".

Sod you, mate.

Surprised Loyola didn't flip Dan the electronic finger via crackberry, in the manner common among young people these days who find their current relationship has lost its pizazz.

"Deer D, f u. Luv Rnmn"

Handful of characters.

Broadband, so it would appeal to the fibre-optician in The Man.

Instantly delivered.

Around Bond Papers, where we consider a five year old cell phone to be cutting edge technology, the stories making the rounds - including the ones offered by "The Panel" on Into the Fog Here and Now - just didn't cut it.

Maybe it was what Loyola said it was?

Yeah. Right.

New address

To start the New Year,a new e-mail address for Bond Papers.

Predictably, it is bondpapers@hotmail.com.

Don't be surprised

if Danny spends the weekend persuading Jerome Kennedy to join cabinet as the unelected minister of justice and attorney general.

Danny did muse today about attracting "new blood" into politics. Kennedy is the only blood coming forward to indicate an interest in joining Williams' team. Constitutionally, Kennedy can take on a job in cabinet without a seat.

Kennedy could wait until the October general election to seek a seat in Carbonear where he reputedly had wanted to run instead of Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi.

Williams spreads thin, thinner

In the wake of Loyola Sullivan's sudden resignation, Premier Danny Williams issued:

- this short political good-bye note; and,

- this announcement of changes to the ministry.

Tom Marshall moves to head finance and treasury board.

Tom Rideout [left] becomes acting minister of justice and attorney general in addition to being deputy premier, minister responsible for aboriginal affairs and minister of fisheries and aquaculture. The deputy premier thing got left out of the release.

The Canadian Press version of the Sullivan story doesn't shed much light on Sullivan's motivation. No fault of CP; Sullivan was pretty cryptic. The CBC online story has a bit of added information but it, too, doesn't shed light on Sullivan's motivation beyond the unusual answers Sullivan offered.

The explanation Sullivan offered is unusual since none of the points he made necessitated an immediate resignation today.

In a scrum today, Williams apparently spoke of his looking forward to injecting new blood into his party and cabinet. Sullivan didn't really leave him much of a chance to do that; Williams learned of the resignation on Thursday night around 9:00 PM, according to Sullivan.

The hurried departure means Williams will have to call two by-elections early in the new year. One will be to find a replacement for Ed Byrne in Kilbride. The other will now be held to replace Sullivan whose old seat in the legislature abutts Byrne's riding.

Breaking: Sullivan surprise resignation

Loyola "Rain Man" Sullivan stunned Newfoundland and Labrador today by announcing his immediate departure from politics.

Sullivan - who was minister of finance and president of treasury board - submitted his resignation this morning. Premier Danny Williams will be available to meet with reporters at 1300 hours today. No word yet on a cabinet shuffle

Bond Papers will update, as information becomes available.

Danny Williams resignation: Bond Papers news story of 2006

While many stories vied for contention, Danny Williams' resignation is Bond Paper's news story of the year for 2006 and Danny Williams is the newsmaker of the year.

Williams announced his resignation - actually that he would not seek a third term in 2011 - in comments made to VOCM and then repeated in subsequent year-end interviews.

Williams' resignation, likely to come in 2009 or 2010 after a decision on the Lower Churchill, comes at the end of a year of continued set-backs for the premier who has been in equal measures petulant and posturing.

His announcement will further limit his ability to accomplish anything of substance on his own agenda in his remaining time in office. His cabinet and caucus will be reluctant to implement major initiatives that would limit harm their political fortunes and as government members begin to jockey for the leadership, government operations will slow.

Hebron fails

The past year marked a turning point for the Williams administration. The first setback was the collapse of negotiations on the Hebron oil field. After achieving an apparent agreement on January 26 covering royalties and local benefits, Williams introduced new conditions for a settlement including a 4.9% "equity stake" and so-called super-royalties that would see the province collect additional royalties as long as oil prices stayed above US$50 per barrel.

Bond Papers attributed the failure of the Hebron talks to a combination of a miscalculation by the Premier and a fundamental conflict of interest in the negotiations that saw the future equity partner sitting as the province's chief negotiator on benefits and royalties.

The economic impact of the Hebron failure was immediate. Housing prices in the St. John's area dropped dramatically, with some reporting a 25% decline in higher end properties. Oil companies drastically reduced their local offices. Chevron, for example, redeployed the 60 or so staffers working on Hebron, leaving behind a skeleton crew of five or six to oversee Chevron interest in existing production.

In April, Husky Energy's John Lau said the company would sideline its reported interest in natural gas exploration pending release of the province's gas royalty regime in the fall of 2006. By the end of 2006, Williams delayed announcement of the royalty regime and the province's energy plan until sometime in 2007.

The local oil and gas industry looked forward to starting construction of a major new field at Hebron. Construction was expected to pump the better part of $2.0 billion into the local economy and the royalty projections held the provincial government would receive between CDN$8.0 and CDN$10.0 billion in royalties over the life of Hebron production. Industry insiders anticipated the positive mood resulting from a Hebron deal would boost exploration which had recently seen increasing interest.

Instead, activity is likely to shrink with no construction at all and drilling programs. A decision on developing South Hibernia's 300 million barrels of light sweet crude has been delayed, with insiders speculating that the Williams administration will veto any approval of the project by the offshore regulatory board. A recent land sale by the board saw three parcels receiving no bids. In another sale, six of eight parcels received bids with the work commitments being primarily for seismic research. Delineation drilling on existing fields is largely completed and the only exploration drilling planned for 2007 is a pair of wells in the deep waters of the Orphan Basin.

More slipping and sliding in the oil patch

Williams met the Hebron failure with threats of expropriation, a tactic he tried with Abitibi Consolidated and its Stephenville operation. When Williams tried to elicit federal support for so-called fallow field powers, he was rejected flatly by Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper. This was one of several examples of Williams' inability to gain support in Ottawa.

Williams was also shut down in efforts to install St. John's mayor Andy Wells as chairman and chief executive officer of the offshore regulatory board. The federal government under Paul Martin was prepared to appoint Wells as chairman of the board, but Williams rejected the offer in favour of an effort to have Wells occupy both positions. An independent arbitration panel rejected Williams' choice in favour of a candidate who met all the provincial government's agreed upon selection criteria.

The successful candidate was forced to take legal action to secure his appointment. Williams fought the action, inventing a definition of one clause of the Atlantic Accord that was soundly rejected by the province's Supreme Court.

Lard of the Rings

In year-end interviews, Premier Danny Williams described the House of Assembly scandal as his single greatest regret of 2006. The province's auditor general alleged that some $4.4 million had been inappropriately spent by the legislature between 1997 and 2005. The accusations - which included members in all parties - cost Williams one of his senior ministers and cast a pall over the entire legislature.

But the handling of the scandal suggests Williams may be unwilling or unable to address serious problems. The Auditor General's reports account for less than half the overspending during the period. Williams has been contradicted by his finance minister - Loyola Sullivan [left]- on at least one occasion, namely the question of recovering money allegedly misappropriated. Williams favoured waiting until all investigations and reviews were finished; Sullivan moved to recover money from five current and former members of the legislature immediately.

In a broader sense though, Sullivan's continued handling of the file suggests problems within the administration that speak directly to the Premier's inability to control his administration or his reluctance to do so. Either way, the problems are deep.

Sullivan has been a member of the legislature's management committee for much of the period currently being investigated by three separate agencies. As well, he has been minister of finance since 2003 and has such has been or ought to have been aware of overspending. Bond Papers demonstrated that some of the most significant overspending occurred in the years after the October 2003 election.

Yet Sullivan remains as finance minister and cabinet has approved investigations and reviews which specifically avoid looking at actions by the legislature's Internal Economy Commission. As finance minister, Sullivan received the reports from Auditor General John Noseworthy [right] that alleged misappropriations and overspending.

The existence of this fundamental conflict of interest suggest that the premier is either unwilling or unable to take decisive action. The ease with which Sullivan won the fight over repayments suggests Williams is increasingly impotent within his own cabinet.

Sullivan's power: the clash over Equalization

This is not the first or most example of Sullivan's ability to contradict his boss in public and win. In the 2004 federal election, Sullivan endorsed the Conservative's Equalization plans while Williams publicly declared their impact could not be calculated.

In 2005/2006, Williams declared that the provincial government officially favoured inclusion of all provincial revenues in Equalization calculations as part of an overall reform of the major federal transfer to the provinces. Sullivan endorsed Harper's proposal.

By mid-2006, Williams was picking fights with Ottawa but based entirely on the position Sullivan had favoured. Sullivan's political partner, federal cabinet minister Loyola Hearn praised Sullivan as being the best negotiator on behalf of the province. This was a direct and calculated slap at Williams who bills himself as built a reputation for negotiating good deals on behalf of clients and avoiding bad deals.

Williams' political impotence likely to grow

Bond Papers selected Danny Williams as newsmaker of the year for the obvious and significant impact he had on the province and its economy in 2006. That impact will continue in 2007. The full - and likely negative - impact of the Hebron failure will be seen in the years beyond Williams' planned departure. In the same way, the full impact of Williams' announced departure from the premier's office will have an increasing impact on public life over the next three years. For that reason, Williams' resignation is the news story of this year.

By his own calculation, Williams' last years in politics will be focused on developing the Lower Churchill. A "go/no-go" decision is expected in 2009. It is possible there will be a flurry of activity in the months leading up to the fall 2007 general election and immediately after, but experience suggests otherwise.

Williams' administration has been characterised by extreme slowness in implementing even the most simple of initiatives. It took six months after his first cabinet was sworn in to find names for his departments. His own department - Business - languished for three years without staff appointments. The energy plan - inherited from previous Liberal administrations - has taken a further three years to develop under Williams and is slated for release some time in 2007.

An accountability act that was supposedly the centrepiece of Williams' ethics agenda sat un-proclaimed until December. It was only proclaimed after public criticism from the province's auditor general but even then departments and agencies have been given a further two years - until 2008 - to comply.

Typically, though, lame duck first ministers are unable to implement major initiatives the closer they get to leaving office. The reason is simple: those who will carry on, especially his likely successor won't want to take political hits on his behalf. The new leader will want as free a hand as possible to bring in his or her own agenda once in office.

The period from Brian Tobin's departure in October 2000 to Roger Grimes' swearing-in in early 2001 was a period of near complete inactivity within the provincial government. As a general election grew closer, Grimes' administration was unable or unwilling to implement any major initiatives that would likely draw public criticism. Senior public servants grew tired of complaining of the impotence of cabinet collectively.

The same thing occurred in 1988/89 in the period after Brian Peckford announced his resignation. It also occurred in 1979 in the wake of Frank Moores' departure.

The growing leadership fight within the Progressive Conservative party will be one of the other sources of friction within an administration already known for gear-grinding tardiness. Prospective leaders will devote increasing amounts of time to luring political support. Even if Williams requires declared candidates to resign from cabinet, political attention will inevitably turn increasingly away from governing and towards leadership issues for 12 to 18 months before Williams departure.

None have declared yet but early speculation suggests several current ministers will look to replace their current boss. Loyola Sullivan is a former party leader with a strong power base. Tom Rideout [left], currently fisheries minister and deputy premier, is a former premier who has longed to get his old job back. InTRD minister Trevor Taylor has potential.

Williams may shuffle his cabinet early in 2007 to change assignments. In the current cabinet configuration, any leadership fight involving Sullivan and Rideout - for example - has the potential to paralyse cabinet with two senior ministers jockeying for advantage. A change of assignments would also allow Williams to shrink from public scrutiny and focus on the one thing that may be his legacy: a Lower Churchill deal.

No matter how you assess the situation, there's no escaping the conclusion: Danny Williams' resignation is not only the news story of 2006, it will be be at the heart of news for the next three years.

-srbp-

Kingsley quits

Except for the fruit loops at the National Citizens Coalition and the other fruit loops who believe there are Liberal conspiracies in the media, in the bureaucracy and in the atmosphere just floating around, the sudden and cryptic resignation of Jean Pierre Kingsley as chief electoral officer for Canada is a bad sign.


[Right: Local planted Connie caller sits on hold waiting for Randy to return to the air on Monday morning, so he can explain why Kingsley was a kitten-eating alien Liberal agent.]

Law firm name of 2006

Atlantic regional law firms Patterson Palmer and Cox, Hanson, O'Reilly, Matheson announced in March that they would be merging effective in August.

Ok. Well, it's December and the firms are still operating separately if their separate websites are any indication.

But that's not the important bit.

The new firm will need a new name, since PPCHOM or some combination of those letters will be just too much for any letterhead to bear.

According to some sources, the firms have apparently settled on a new name for the merged firm, once it finally springs fully formed from the broodings of way too many corporate anal-retentive lawyers.

The name they've reputedly settled on: Cox, Palmer.

The stories Bond Papers has been getting could be apocryphal - the polite word for bullshite - but then again, you never know.

Over in the land God gave to Lucy Maud, the authorities were seriously considering naming a new post-secondary school the Samuel Holland Institute of Technology until someone wrote down the new acronym.

You may note that the two firms hired a Halifax-based ad agency - the cleverly named Extreme Group - to carry out the branding exercise for the new creation once the lawyers have finished the due diligence piece.

Whistling past the graveyard?

Maybe Danny should be paying attention to Bond Papers.

His comments on oil and gas to vocm.com run directly contrary to every indicator as Bond Papers posted just this morning. The petroleum industry globally is looking pretty well anywhere except Newfoundland and Labrador.

If we wanted to say it politely, we'd say the Premier is whistling past the graveyard.

The Venezuelan ideal

Danny Williams sorta likes the comparison to Hugo Chavez.

Danny's ersatz oil and gas company executives like to talk about how much of the world's oil and gas is run by state-owned enterprises.

Well, here's another view of the Venezuelan model, courtesy of the Washington Post.

"This [artificially low gasoline price] is something that really does not benefit the public," said Eddie Ramírez, a former state oil company executive who believes poorer Venezuelans shoulder much of the burden because they do not own cars. "It helps the privileged. But it's a theme that has always been taboo."

Gas demand drops

Demand for natural gas is forecast to drop in the United States next year and analysts say interesting in natural gas exploration is dropping.

In Newfoundland and Labrador, a natural gas royalty regime remains elusive. originally talked about in 1998, it has languished under successive administrations. The most recent policy dithering under Danny Williams has seen the policy largely ignored for the better part of three years. It will now be included in the energy plan - due sometime next year, having been proposed several times in 2006 and delayed inexplicably each time.

Local CBC names AG top newsmaker

Ok.
We can all buy the rationale.

But at what point will local media start looking more closely at Noseworthy himself and the management of the overall story?

There's a lot more to the House scandal than meets the eye.

Maine gas plant files for regulatory approval

DownEast filed Friday for certification of a US$500 million facility in Maine that would re-gasify 500 million cubic feet of natural gas per day for the American market.

The environmental certification application is likely to be opposed by environmentalists in New Brunswick.

Think of it this way

Will Gill Deacon be filling in for Mansbridge?

So then why...?

You know what I am driving at.

Ford dies; Reagan surprise

Former American president Gerald Ford died Tuesday, aged 93.

The guy who made Chevy Chase's career became president with Richard Nixon's resignation. He is generally regarded as a principled, capable president who led the United States through one of the most difficult periods in the country's political history.

In other news, recent scholarship has revealed that Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev came close to completely eliminating their nations' nuclear weapons arnsenals at the Iceland summit in 1986.

The story originally aired on CBC's The Current back in October, but your humble e-scribbler only caught the interviews on Boxing Day. Here's a link to the audio file.

In 1986, some of us were headed to graduate school for more work on defence and foreign policy, so arms control was right at the heart of what we were doing. And yes, some of us felt that while there could and should be dramatic reductions in the size of nuclear arsenals, it was almsot impossible for two countries to reduce to zero unless every country reduced their arsenal to zero at the same time. The issue is a little more complex than either The Current's host and her schollar-guests acknowledge.

Nonetheless, the work they talk about sheds an entirely new perspective on a very important international political event.

It should also help some people to dramatically revise their views. If one prof in particular is still teaching international security and arms control courses at Memorial's political science department, he'll have to go back to the drawing board. One of the favourite demons in his analysis turns out to have been the opposite of the characture he liked to draw.

The Reykjavik Files can be found here at George Washington University's website.

NL hospitals included?

It's nice to hear about the medical capabilities at hospitals in the "Maritimes", but will any hospitals in Newfoundland and Labrador be accepting casualties from the next rotation in Afghanistan?

Some aspects of this story sound like a Canadian Press staffer living in Halifax writing Christmas filler.

Yuletide amusements

1. From John Gushue, a little quiz on local politics and current events in the past year. Your humble e-scribbler missed two questions. John is a wicked quiz compiler.

2. From NORAD, their annual live tracking of Santa as he travels around the world on this Christmas Eve. The site is fun and the wee ones in your household will delight in the videos of Santa as he travels to New Zealand and Australia (already done).