Soviet intelligence expert gunned down in DC?

The headline on this story in the Globe says "Soviet" but the lede says a fellow who specializes in Russian intelligence services was shot near his home in suburban Washington.

It appeared to be a robbery.

Yeah, right.

That's what it is supposed to look like. Looks like the boys from the old Department V are at it again.

PQ on the way down?

From Reuters, an article on the Quebec general election that notes the results of the latest Leger poll.

The Liberals are leading the Parti Quebecois, 36% to 29%. Action democratique is at 25%. Among francophones, the Liberals and the ADQ each have 28%, with the PQ holding 33% of francophone voters. Non- francophone respondents indicated overwhelmingly in favour of the Liberals.

And from le devoir, coverage of Jean Charest, including this message to the Prime Minister from Charest:

"Les Québécois s'attendent à ce qu'il y ait un progrès significatif et concret dans le dossier du déséquilibre fiscal. Le gouvernement fédéral a en main tout ce qu'il faut pour prendre ses décisions."

The Great Blue Hearn on Credibility

Contrary to what some may believe, your humble e-scribbler has a lot of time for Loyola Hearn. [left, why is that finger sticking out? Photo: Greg Locke].

Hearn is an experienced and capable politician who has shown, over the years, that he can take and give a punch.

Danny Williams could take a few lessons from the wily fellow from Renews.

Once in a while, though, Hearn displays the kind of chutzpah that only a veteran could risk and keep a straight face.

Like Friday, for example, when Hearn issued a statement from his ministerial office tackling Liberal member of parliament Scott Simms for his little stunt about German boar hunting as a retaliation for a likely German Bundestag bill that will ban the importation of Canadian seal products:

Even today's motion plays directly into the hands of the anti-seal hunt movement. Instead of defending the hunt's standards, and putting forward the facts that the hunt is both humane AND sustainable, the message Simms is putting forward via the media seems to be "At least, we're not as bad as so-and-so."

Simms has fallen into the activists' trap and his irrational reaction can only hurt our argument regarding sustainable and humane hunts for a multitude of species. We will work with the EU on ensuring their members' hunts - including Germany's deer and wild boar hunt - are at least as sustainable and humane as our seal hunt.

Part of cabinet minister Hearn's problem has less to do with Simms' lack of input on legislation and much more to do with the fact that Simms [right Photo: Greg Locke] is taking a leaf from opposition politician Hearn's playbook. Simms is being extraordinarily successful when it comes to gaining popular support in Newfoundland and Labrador for his little escapade. Radio talk shows over the past few days have been filled with callers praising Simms' initiative.

Hearn is incommunicado, apparently, but that is really his own call or that of his comms people.

Hearn meanwhile is left with issuing this statement - days after the story broke - that commits to working with the European Union blah blah blah. It's hardly as dramatic. It's hardly the stuff to get you interviewed on Newsworld. It's hardly the stuff that made the name "Loyola Hearn" a legend among the crowd on Open Line.

That is, before he went from being Mister Hearn to Minister Hearn.

Hearn went off the chutzpah scale - he long ago fried the Bond Papers' Cred-o-Meter - though with his last comment:

What sort of credibility do they think they'll have the next time their party says that they want to seriously deal with issues in the fishery?

Let's just say that the Liberals will have as much credibility as Hearn. This is the guy after all who made a huge deal about having his party declare its unequivocal, unflinching and irrevocable policy that, should it form a government, it would immediately take control of international waters outside the 200 mile exclusive economic zone and manage fisheries in the region in a form called custodial management.

Hearn [left. Official ministerial portrait] took great pride in a private members motion on the issue in 2004 and earned accolades from his provincial brethren for his efforts. Hearn used to rail against NAFO, the international fisheries association, claiming it was dead, useless and any other negative adjective he could think of.

That was before he became the fish minister.

Scarcely a month after being sworn to the Privy Council and getting the ministerial car and driver to boot, Hearn was pledging his unwavering support for exactly the policies he used to condemn. NAFO was getting better, said the guy who declared it dead. This wasn't much of a surprise to Bond Papers' readers, though. They had seen the unmistakable signs here, here, here. Heck just go back to the archives and read anything on Hearn between December 2005 and March 2006.

Hearn's credibility is likely to take a severe blow with his statement today on Simms' boar war. It was a noteworthy gaffe from a crafty old politician who, until now, has been able to avoid answering for the discrepancies between the old Loyola and the new one.

It's easier to do that when you avoid interviews. For some reason, though, Loyola decided to stick his head up on this one today with a pissy statement. Maybe the rumours are true.

Maybe something does happen to you when you get to be a regional minister from Newfoundland with a thing about fish.

Separated at birth 3

Boar warrior Scott Simms, left, [Photo: Greg Locke]







and Scott Evil, right, [Photo: not Greg Locke]

"I have a gun, in my room, you give me five seconds, I'll get it, I'll come back down here, BOOM, I'll blow their brains out!"

Ball's in play

The recount is done.

Dwight Ball is the new member of the House of Assembly for Humber Valley.

By seven votes.

Equalization: We'll huff and we'll puff...

and we'll hold our breath until we turn blue.

Well, deeper blue.

Maybe purple.

And if that doesn't work we'll stamp our feet.

The provincial government of Danny Williams has such an effective relationship with Ottawa that its operatives must resort to leaking correspondence to the Globe and Mail's Brian Laghi in an effort to get anyone to pay attention to them.

All that it nets is the repetition of the same old lines from the provincial government:

- Stephen Harper won't confirm he plans to live up to a commitment he made during the last federal election.

- Losing federal handouts "would very seriously undermine the progress we have made and our prospects for the future."

Then there's the old chestnut:

"It would electrify the electorate," a provincial source said of how such a move would play in a federal election.

Maybe the unnamed source on this one is the same source that told Danny Williams that pulling down the Canadian flag was a dandy idea. We all know what a magically delicious mistake that was. Even the Premier's own pollster couldn't demonstrate that one was overwhelmingly popular even her in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Anyone following this issue knows full-well that the federal government has moved off its campaign commitment in favour of something else. Even Danny Williams has moved off his own position at the time. The exact impact of the federal Equalization changes will be known when they come.

But here's the thing: as much as Williams may try and throw another tantrum over the whole thing, his own political potency is weakened and the current federal government will know exactly how to deal with him. The unnamed source who muses about "electrifying" the electorate is taking poor lessons from history.

Bond projection: The only thing likely to get electrified to any serious degree will be the seats in the PMO waiting room. That will only be done to keep the Premier's personal representative from hanging out to get a chance to meet with anyone in the PMO as he or she walks out to their car to head to a meeting with someone the PMO is actually paying attention to.

Ireland mission leads to MOU...again

Premier Danny Williams' business mission to Ireland netted another memorandum of understanding with the Irish government.

This one will focus on ocean surveillance technology.

Try and find any reference to Danny Williams, Newfoundland and Labrador and the MOU here on Irish natural resources minister Noel Dempsey's personal website or on his departmental one.

No luck?

Try the website for the Department of Environment, Heritage and Local Government.

Still nothing current?

How about the aggregator website for the entire Irish government?

Keep looking.

Scientists call for end to fishing fuel subsidies

A team of international scientists is calling for an end to government fuel subsidies that allow commercial fishing fleets to move to deeper and deeper water.

"The bottom line is that mistakes made now could take over a century to recover, if they are at all reversible," says [Krista] Baker. Baker and Richard Haedrich of Memorial University in Newfoundland looked at the complete deep-sea fish fauna of the North West Atlantic – one of the first attempts to do so. They found that 40% of the deep-sea species for which data are available, are in decline. "This is a steady decline, just down and down until the cupboard is almost bare," says Baker. "Given the documented declines and the lack of life history data to know what recovery times would even be, conservation measures in the deep-sea are urgent now."

Gushue to run for Tories?

Brad, that is, not John.

It would fit the pattern for the current administration.

The Olympic gold medalist was asked by Canadian Press about politics being in his future. The reply, as carried by the Edmonton Sun:

"Well, there was a rumour going around that I was going to be running in the next (provincial) election," he said with a chuckle. "Maybe down the road, but not in the near future.

"I had three media outlets in Newfoundland call me requesting an interview because they heard I was running in the election and had been promised a (cabinet) minister's position."

Gushue might not be running but the Golden Boy of Mount Pearl will. That's the Bond projection and we are sticking to that one.

Steve Kent will run for the Tories in Waterford-Kenmount to replace Harvey Hodder.

Quebec election comms

From la presse blogeur Stephane Laporte, a critique of campaign advertising thus far.

Even if you don't speak French, take a look at the television spots linked in the article. The Parti quebecois ads are funky. They have a guerrilla advertising feel to them with a little humor. The PQ site is pretty much up-to-date with current fads. There is a blogue section which is actually a blog. There are podcasts, labelled Radio PQ.

The Parti liberale spots are pretty conventional in look and content, emphasising that public priorities are Liberal priorities. There is a pretty simple use of technology in what are labelled blogues but which are actually just little videos featuring prominent cabinet ministers speaking on major issues.

China boosts oil incentives

In an effort to secure additional energy sources, China announced Thursday it was adding nine countries to its list of economies where its companies can gain incentives to invest.

Chinese companies can get tax breaks or other incentives for investing in oil and gas industries in Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Morocco, Libya, Niger, Norway, Ecuador and Bolivia, according to an announcement by China's top planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission.

Progress on passport initiative

Three Canadian premiers, in Washington to push for alternatives to proposed American border controls, found a powerful ally Wednesday in House rules committee chair Louise Slaughter (D-NY).

Grimes may sue too

Transportation minister John Hickey filed a statement of claim against former premier Roger Grimes on Tuesday in the ongoing battle over Grimes' comments on Hickey's double billing of his legislature expense accounts.

Grimes is now looking for an apology from Premier Danny Williams.

From the story by Rob Antle in Thursday's Telegram:

On Feb. 14, Williams went on open line and implied that Grimes called Hickey a "criminal."

But Grimes told The Telegram he did not do so.

"The fact of the matter is Danny Williams said that. Roger Grimes never, ever, ever said any of that publicly."

Grimes charged that those comments were the slanderous ones.

"(My) lawyers say the only defamation that's occurred in this whole process has been the premier on open line suggesting falsely to the public that I said things that I never, ever said," Grimes said.

Now, Grimes wants his own apology.

His lawyers wrote a letter hand-delivered to the premier's office Monday. They demanded that Williams apologize by Friday.

If such an apology is not forthcoming, Grimes will consult with friends and legal counsel to examine his options over the weekend.

Hillier on Goose Bay: uncertain

As Radio Canada reported on 24 Feb, Chief of Defence Staff General Rick Hiller said he could not pronounce on the future of the military base at Goose Bay.

He told reporters that while the existing personnel would remain in place, he was also uncertain about the base's future.

-------------------------------

Observation: This story does not appear to have been picked up in English-language media.

Complete French text below:

Le commandant en chef des forces armées canadiennes, Rick Hillier, affirme qu'il ne peut se prononcer sur l'avenir de la base militaire de Happy Valley-Goose Bay à Terre-Neuve-et-Labrador. Il dit être en attente d'informations d'Ottawa à ce sujet. [Hillier is actually the Chief of the Defence Staff, not commander in chief. In Franch, that would be Chef d'etat-major de la Defense.]

Même s'il confirme que le personnel de la base restera en place, le général Hillier affirme qu'il est lui aussi dans l'incertitude quant à son avenir.

Lors de la dernière campagne électorale fédérale, le Parti conservateur avait promis d'augmenter les effectifs à Terre-Neuve-et-Labrador afin, notamment, d'assurer une surveillance de l'Atlantique et de l'Arctique.

Aucune annonce concrète n'a été faite depuis, toutefois. Ce qui a fait dire aux libéraux que le gouvernement conservateur n'a pas l'intention de respecter cette promesse.

Antle and Cochrane: a Northern view

From the truly Great White North, former reporter's Craig Welsh's towniebastard perspective on work this week by Rob Antle at the Telegram, and David Cochrane's speech to the Board of Trade.

Craig links to both Antle and Cochrane. [left. Photo: cbc.ca. Does that look like the face of a wild-eyed radical to you?] You can find them elsewhere on Bond as well.

He makes some valid, well-argued points about the difficult job of reporting. No argument from here and your humble e-scribbler will take a few lumps if some of the criticism of reporters Craig mentions has come from this space.

Then Craig wonders where the pro-Danny blogs are.

There are a few. It doesn't take much scrolling to find them on the blog roll at right. Craig mentions Liam O'Brien at Responsible Government League and rightly notes that Liam has changed his view markedly over the course of time. Check out nf.general on the old part of the Internet, though, and you'll find many more doing their bit to support the Danny cause. For a case in point, have a gander at the thread on Cochrane's speech.

On blogs, it can be easy to forget that the audience for blogs in this province is small. While something like Bond can reach some pretty influential audiences, there's just no matching the readership of the province's major daily or the eyeballs glued to NTV every night for Fred, Lynn, Toni, and Glen. Government puts its effort where it brings the greatest result.

It's also important to recall that Danny's comms approach is inherited, in large part, from what went immediately before. A surprising number of his comms people - starting at the top - came out of the Tobin/Grimes system and they continue to do what they learned when they started. Others who have come on board since 2003 follow the general pattern already laid out. Largely it works, or, to be more accurate, seems to work.

There's a reason why this administration, like the Tobin and Grimes ones before it, uses radio talk shows as extensively as it does. Talk radio makes it much easier to get the word out unfiltered. In dealing with other media, the messaging still works, largely because reporters work with the disadvantage of not knowing a lot of things or having the time to background a story to be properly briefed. The entire crowd in this market can be as hardnosed and persistent as the best of them out there anywhere, but more often than not you need to know what to ask in order to get the information.

Given the pressures on modern newsrooms, it is rare to see a place - print, radio, or television - with the budget or a reporter with the time to be able to undertake the sort of in-depth research Antle obviously did. Not so long ago, that sort of background would have been done shortly after the story first broke. As it is, Antle wound up taking something eight months to piece it all together. That isn't a criticism of him; rather take it as an admonition to consider the human dimension to his job and that of all his colleagues.

To get back to blogs, though, this provincial government pays as much attention to blogs as most business people in the province. While blogging has become a very potent communications tool elsewhere, around these parts, people are still waking up to the phenomenon. Your humble e-scribbler was asked again this evening by a colleague if this effort generates any business. Not a stain, went the reply, although in virtually every other market, the seemingly obvious demonstration of the impact a blog can have plus whatever other skills and knowledge are evident here would likely pull the odd hobble.

Craig finishes off with an observation about what the next six months might bring. The first couple of months of the New Year have brought all sorts of bizarre developments in politics and elsewhere.

No one knows what's around the next corner and that's part of what will make 2007 a fascinating year in Newfoundland and Labrador.

It also makes for great blogging.

David Cochrane: Patriotic Correctness

CBC provincial reporter David Cochrane spoke to the St. John's Board of Trade last week.

His speech is insightful, well-founded and hard hitting.

Geoff Meeker has a copy which he has edited slightly and posted in its entirety.

Read it.

You won't be disappointed.

Dead blog in the middle of the road

Public discussion is dead over at Sue's little corner of cyberspace.

It was only a matter of time.

Free speech isn't free if it's underground.

Quebec and NL in same economic and political boat

This column by the Globe and Mail's Konrad Yakabuski describes Quebec as a province on the edge of a financial precipice.

The basis for Yakabuski's comments is a document released over a year ago by Lucien Bouchard and several prominent political scientists and economists. They argued, according to Yakabuski, "that Quebeckers were sleepwalking toward self-annihilation by failing to address the ticking time bombs of an ever-expanding provincial debt, sluggish economic growth and a population that is aging faster than anywhere else in the developed world except Japan."

One could easily switch "Newfoundland and Labrador" for "Quebec" and the names of local politicians for the crowd in this province. The tale is the same.

Public debt and the implications of demographic change sit as twin 800 pound gorillas in the middle of the Newfoundland and Labrador House of Assembly. Not a single politician will even acknowledge their presence, let alone deal with them.

Increased dependence on federal transfers is occurring in Quebec; in Newfoundland and Labrador, restoring Newfoundland and Labrador to dependence on the federal government is the core of Danny Williams' policy.

Quebec receives 20% of its revenue from Mon Oncle Ottawa; in Newfoundland and Labrador, the figure is somewhere between 30% - the official government figure - and over 40% - the figure from the Fraser Institute.

In some respects, Newfoundland and Labrador is actually in far worse shape than Quebec.

Yakabuski notes that Quebec runs the risk of having health care eat up 68% of public spending in 2030, compared with 43% today. Newfoundland and Labrador currently spends 31% of its budget on health care, but all social sector spending - health, plus education and social services - makes up 72% of government spending.

Not only is the situation already worse in some ways, the size of the problem is increasing at a greater rate here than in Quebec. Our neighbours to the west may be facing a sluggish economy. Newfoundland and Labrador is staring into an economic slowdown induced as much as anything else by a combination of conscious government policy in the case of the oil sector and, in the case of the fishery, a chronic inability to deal with a manifest disaster.

Quebec may be ignoring a problem. In Newfoundland and Labrador, politicians seem to be working hard at making the problems worse.

The provincial government here is actively pursuing a hydro-electric development that would cost upwards of $9.0 billion to build. Hydro board chairman Dean MacDonald told The Independent recently that government is seriously considering the very expensive option of shipping power around Quebec to other markets based on the belief that the deal would pay off sometime after 2041. If Premier Danny Williams is to be believed, he is prepared to defer revenue on that approach, that is to sell power for little or no profit in the meantime. That's 35 years from now. Quebec will at least make money from its hydro power. In Newfoundland and Labrador, the government may well wind up, in effect, paying people to take our resources away for a very long time.

For both provinces, though, the words of one Quebec economist are equally applicable:

"For now, someone else is paying, and it's other Canadians. But we're going to hit a wall and [the rest of Canada] is going to say: 'You're asking us to pay for programs that we can't even afford for ourselves,' " said Claude Montmarquette, one of the authors of the manifesto and an economics professor at the University of Montreal.

Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador are in the same economic boat.

Quebec politicians may not be bailing against the rising seas, but at least they aren't opening the seacocks to settle the ship of state lower in the water.

A magically delicious waste of time

Danny Williams is in Ireland, in part to further the Ireland Business Partnership.

Meanwhile, three other premiers - from Ontario, Manitoba and New Brunswick - are in the United States trying to make sure that the border to our largest trading partner is as easy to cross as possible.

In honour of the Premier's trip across the pond, along with an expensive retinue, here are a couple of observations.

If you look at the Newfoundland half of this partnership, there is a preponderance of emphasis on cultural pursuits. Take a look at the 2005-06 annual report. On the face of one would have a hard time understanding why this whole thing isn't called the Ireland Cultural partnership and run out of the tourism department.

Now to be fair, the whole thing costs less than the members of the House overspent on their allowances budgets in 2005, but this is labelled as a business initiative.

So where's the business?

On top of that, if the initiative is so important, if there really is such potential here, how come the news release portion of the project website hasn't been updated since November 2005? There were a couple of announcements in 2006, but they are all cultural in nature. You'll find them on the main government website though. The festival of the Sea thing had its own website and sure enough that portion of the partnership was maintained as recently as last October.

But where's the business?

Let's try the Irish side of the project.

You'll find mention of a sewer company from Ireland starting up a North American subsidiary. There's also a 10 villa condo development in Maddox Cove, which is inside the boundaries of St. John's.

Nice.

But that was two years ago.

Perhaps the single biggest result of this deal, signed originally 10 years ago by Brian Tobin and revived by Danny Williams, has been the regular trade missions from one side or the other. Lots of work for hoteliers, car rental companies, airlines, travel agents, that sort of thing. Bugger all else in the way of business deals.

While Danny Williams has a grand and glorious time in the land of his ancestors, other premiers are busily doing the legwork that will ultimately help businesses in our province. The United States is the single largest destination for our exports, over $2.3 billion annually. Ireland doesn't even crack $100 million.

Newfoundland and Labrador doesn't import much from Ireland either. Well, not in comparison with the United Kingdom, from which we get about $105 million in imports annually. We don't have a special partnership with the United Kingdom to strengthen economic ties with one of the world's major powers.

Nope.

They aren't even tackling the UK and Ireland as a regional package. The provincial government is focusing on Ireland alone, apparently.

Given a choice of where to devote his energies in this late winter of 2007, how curious that Danny Williams opted for Waterford instead of Washington, Donegal and Dublin instead of Dallas.

The choice is as revealing as the provincial government's own forecast of a looming and dramatic economic downturn for Newfoundland and Labrador. We'd better hope that Danny snags a leprechaun and bargains for his pot o' gold. If he was successful at that, as far as business and trade is concerned, that's about all the Tobin/Williams experiment would have turned up.

Dinosaur blog

A child's view of the information world, interpreted by Non sequitur, circa 2005.