Adios Normie

Norm Doyle won't be running again.

There's a shock for the guy who had a hard time with the offshore revenues deal and wound up putting his party ahead of his province.

Enjoy the retirement, Norm and the second pension.

Maybe that's why he's bailing now instead of after the budget.

Who will replace him?

Maybe Loyola Sullivan.

Then again, maybe Loyola Hearn will be the next one to pull pin.

This is going to be an interesting year in local politics.

Marshall responds to census figures

Treasury board president Tom Marshall issued a news release this afternoon on the census figures saying "the census counts released today by Statistics Canada are not final population estimates, but merely a step in a larger process used to determine final official population estimates."

Bond Papers readers already knew that the census figure of 505,000 people for the province ere one set of figures. Statistics Canada contends the actual current population of the province is 509,700.

For all the mention of the current administration's strategy for this, that and the other - none of which has had a significant impact on anything - Marshall's comments don't take into account the long term population projections of his own statistics division.

What's more, the Premier's own projections don't show any of his initiatives, including the still-not-released energy plan, having any significant impact on the province for the better part of the next decade.

In fact, the current Statistics Canada figures correspond most closely to the provincial government's low scenario:

Fertility - the total fertility rate continues to decline in line with recent trends, from a rate of 1.32 in 2006 to 1.14 in 2021.

Mortality - life expectancies continue to increase but at rates slightly below historical trends. Male life expectancy increases by 1.9 years between 2006 and 2021. Female life expectancy increases by 1.8 years over the same period.

Migration - with fewer jobs available in the Province under this scenario, net out-migration from the Province averages roughly 3,000 per year for the next two years and thereafter remains in the -2,000 to -1,000 per year range over most of the projection period as strong labour markets in Central and Western Canada continue to attract young workers from other areas of the country.

The low scenario would have the population a decade from now numbering about 475,000 people. What Marshall's comment's also don't consider is that with the other demographic changes taking place, the work force in a decade's time will be smaller than it is today while the retirees and children, will be considerably larger. That means that the current administration's economic plans will not only have to address the natural changes in the population - already projected accurately by the provincial government's own statistics division - they will have to overcome the setbacks that result from a decade of lost revenue on projects like Hebron and Hibernia South.

Dalton new chair of MUN board of regents

Gilbert Dalton has been appointed new chair of the Memorial University Board of Regents.

Of course, this had nothing to do with it, but it is an interesting reminder of the arguments made only three years ago.

NL population headed below 500K early

While provincial government demographic projections have long shown the province's population dropping below 500,000 people within the first two decades of the 21st century, the latest census data from Statistics Canada shows the population is already well on its way to that point.
The official 2006 census shows the population of Newfoundland and Labrador at 505,469 people, down from 512,930 in 2001.

That's below the Stats Can estimates of the population last year that showed it at over 509,000. Statistics Canada considers these so-called postcensual figures to be a more accurate reflection of the current population and explains the methodology in a separate note.

Community-by-community numbers are contained on separate data sheets.

The census figures show a net population change. It does not indicate outmigration exclusively. Some of the population change in Newfoundland and Labrador would include internal migration from towns to towns or towns to cities.

Newfoundland and Labrador's population declined by 1.5% between 2001 and 2006, one of only two provinces experiencing a decline during the most recent five year census period. Only Saskatchewan also experienced decline between 2001 and 2006.

Between 1996 and 2001, the province's population declined by 7% in the aftermath of the cod moratorium. The population of Newfoundland and Labrador hasn't been below 500,000 people since the late 1960s.

Bonus demographic question

What three things likely contributed to the dramatic decline in some sexually transmitted illness rates in Newfoundland and Labrador in the past 25 years?

Take gonorrhea, for example. Exactly 792 cases in this province in 1980. Only one in 2004.

Why the massive drop?

What about chlamydia? Not such a dramatic decline at all. In fact both the number of cases reported and the rate of infection in the population has gone up since the early 1990s.

Take a look at last year's release from Health Canada and you won't get a clue. Nationally, gonnorhea is on the increase, as is chlamydia.

It doesn't make sense that our population would buck the trend so dramatically.

Alberta focuses on its federal cash

As noted yesterday, Alberta finance minister Lyle Oberg is focusing attention on federal transfers other than Equalization.

Lorne Calvert insists that Oberg's boss - Ed Stelmach - hasn't changed his position.

Ever notice that with Danny Williams - and now Lorne Calvert - it's never the person who does the denying? Danny - and now Lorne - is the guy to tell us what the other guy committed to or didn't commit to.

Like Paul Martin.

Like Stephen Harper.

Like all the provincial premiers who supposedly backed Danny in his first fight with Ottawa. [Did anyone ever see a single letter or hear a comment that said anything like 'Go, Danny Go!"?]

And now like Ed Stelmach.

At Bond Papers, we learned a long time ago to take the words of the people involved over Danny's - and now Lorne's - version of things.

It's a safer bet.

Alberta isn't backing Lorne - and Danny - on the Equalization thingy.

Outmigration in perspective, from labradore

Courtesy of Wally Maclean, out migration, in migration and all the other niceties of demographic change.

Newfoundland's hope goes west

From MSNBC and the Financial Times, no less, comes this discussion of the province's looming economic downturn.

The Conference Board of Canada reported last month that Newfoundland and Labrador's economy will expand this year by 5 per cent, up from 1.8 per cent last year, boasting the highest economic growth of any Canadian province this year. However, that growth is expected to end this year, slowing to just 0.4 per cent in 2008 as oil production drops off.

Some minor details are wrong, but fundamentally, the province is being branded as on the decline.

In fact, the story is so clear that Andy Wells looks like a total lunatic when he speaks of the province being at the beginning of a growth cycle.

No amount of advertising and no supply of trade shows can undo the negatives this piece portrays. Then again, the provincial government has actively courted the image of being the place where things aren't happening.

Private investment in NL forecast to drop by 16.2%

That sucking noise is the 2007 forecast for investment in Newfoundland and Labrador from outside the province according to the National Bank of Canada.

New Brunswick leads all provinces with private sector investment growth expected to hit 15.7% during 2007. Much of this strength will come from utilities and manufacturing sector investments. Utilities are also a big factor in Prince Edward Island.

Check the chart in the .pdf linked above. Newfoundland and Labrador will see a decline in investment of 16.2%. Overall, the National Bank puts the investment slowdown in four provinces in a wider perspective that diminishes the impact on the country as a whole.

But if you are in this province, it's difficult to miss the hit, let alone take it.

Creative writing 101

AJ Baker's latest column for the Transcon weeklies includes this statement:

The Conservative party is now in a quandary about what to do before the wrath of Danny Williams befalls them.

Their quandry?

Laugh now or laugh later.

This column would make sense if it had been written three years ago. Today, it makes you wonder where Baker's been all this time.

Soldier charged in August 2006 Afghanistan shooting

Master Corporal Robbie Fraser faces one count of manslaughter (s. 236 of the Criminal Code of Canada) and one count of negligent performance of duty (s.124 of National Defence Act) following a Canadian Forces National Investigative Service investigation into the death of Master Corporal Jeffrey Walsh, in Afghanistan, in August 2006.

No further information on the charges was contained in the official news release.

As recently as Sunday, little information had been released on the incident.

_______________________________________

Update:

A new Canadian Press story with comments from MCpl Walsh's father.

It's the inaccuracy that grates

In the army, it would be difficult for a "gun" to be fired inside a vehicle, as in several news stories over the past 24 hours:

The allegations are that a gun belonging to another solider [sic], Master Cpl. Robbie Fisher, somehow went off in the vehicle, and the single shot hit Walsh.

This is a rifle, specifically the C-7 (right):

This is a Canadian-manufactured version of the M-16A2. it fires a bullet that is .223 inches/5.56 millimetres in diameter. It is carried by individual soldiers and fits inside just about any vehicle.




On the other hand, this is a gun [left].

Specifically, it is the M777 155 millimetre howitzer used by Canadian Forces in Afghanistan.

It is worked by a crew of several soldiers and simply doesn't fit inside any existing military vehicle.

While nits are being picked, the vehicle involved could not be a Jeep, as the CityNews story quoted above calls it. The same reference appears in the Canadian Press stories on the shooting incident as well.

The Canadian Forces has not used jeeps - i.e. the military version of the World War II light utility truck - since the early 1980s. Jeep refers to the trade-marked civilian vehicle.

Canadian Press has an excellent style guide and a caps and spelling guide that deals with just these pesky details.

Too bad more people writing news - including Canadian Press - don't use it.

Williams to end blackout

Premier Danny Williams has been going through a self-imposed media exile for about a month.

Russell Wangersky discussed it on Saturday in his regular Telegram column.

And you have to say, it’s probably been the right decision.

After all, in the days leading up to the blackout, things were getting, well, out of control.

The present silence is, without a doubt, an improvement over the media stylings that were taking place just before Williams departed the airwaves, when he was talking about keeping an eye on people and threatening lawsuits against anyone who would call the character of sitting politicians into question.

Sometimes, everyone has to sit back and take a deep breath, and ask whether the direction we’re taking is a fair one, whether you’re in the media or the political community or anywhere else.

The blackout ends today at 11:00 AM. The Premier will be meeting with reporters to discuss provincial ferry rates.

His scrum partner will be none other than transportation minister John Hickey. This one should be interesting for all the questions not about ferry rates.

Williams isolated on Equalization

Alberta's out of the Equalization war.

That didn't take long.

Like Kramer in "The Contest".

[Alberta finance minister Lyle Oberg] says it doesn't make sense to oppose the new equalization formula when Alberta, as a wealthy province, neither gains nor loses from a payout system designed for poorer jurisdictions.

"It doesn't matter to us," Mr. Oberg said, adding later: "We also recognize that there's certainly a high chance that this is going to come in whether we say anything or not."

Well, d'uh, on all counts, he said, in recognition of Vernacular Monday.

There was never any reason for Alberta to wade into the discussion.

So now the Great Jihad for Handouts is down to Saskatchewan and Danny Williams.

Hmmm.

Something to watch for in the Globe story: a comment from Ken Boessenkool.

"It's not just a new tone, it's frankly a more sensible tone," Mr. Boessenkool said of the Alberta finance minister's position, contrasting it with that of Mr. Klein, who he said liked to "rattle the populist cage."

Mr. Boessenkool, a Conservative who has written for years on equalization, said the program is not a transfer of money to provinces such as Quebec from Alberta because it's paid for from revenue that Ottawa collects from all Canadians.

Boessenkool has considerable influence in Ottawa or, at the very least, knows which way the wind is blowing on a given file.

________________________

Update:

There was a clue to Alberta's position in February, with Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach expressing a preference for more cash flowing to provinces through transfers other than Equalization.

Just last week, on the heels of federal finance minister Jim Flaherty's visit to St. John's, Bond gave a prediction on what the feds might do, taking a cue from Ken Boessenkool's recent paper on Equalization.

NS and NL: same old, same old

This column could have been written about Newfoundland and Labrador.

Could have, but hasn't been. Yet.

So much of what has been going on in this province since 2001 (That's right - Grimes and Williams are on the same wavelength) harkens back to the very darkest days of the 1980s, yet not a single politician seems to be able to break out of the public policy cycle that has held this province back.

In the fishery, the offshore and just about every other sector of the economy, the dominant thinking is the same sort of thing we have tried before with a stunning lack of success.

And, as in Nova Scotia, the young people of Newfoundland and Labrador are packing up and heading to somewhere else.

(h/t tip to nottawa)

Voting with their feet

The 2006 census data is being released on Tuesday.

In anticipation of the complete data being release in the coming months, here is a simple table comprising population figures for Newfoundland and Labrador over the past 15 years. The source is Statistics Canada.

The year before the cod moratorium was announced there were 568, 474 people living in Newfoundland and Labrador. Within five years, the population had declined by 17,000.

With the end of federal income supports for those involved in the groundfish fishery, the population dwindled rapidly. By 2001, there were 512, 930 in the province.

The population showed a net gain over the next three years, with an estimated 514,209 people living here in July 2004.

Between July 1, 2005 and July 1, 2006, however the population showed a net decline of 4,185 people. While there are many causes for the change in population, declining economic prospects in Newfoundland in the fishery and with the slowdown in the offshore undoubtedly accelerated outmigration.

Yet more on the Argentia video

Ed:

Thanks for linking my site on your blog. My name is Gerry Carew and I created the website www.broadcasttherock.com one more correction to your post The Danny Williams and Andy Wells videos were shot by me and my company www.thevideoman.ca I volunteered to do this for them so that they would have a record of these very interesting shows. I posted them on my website because I knew they would be popular and I hope they get lots of hits to their site from my intiative.

If you don't mind correcting that I would appreciate it.

Lots of interesting videos to come stay tuned!

Gerry Carew
www.broadcasttherock.com

No Gerry, I don't mind at all. Thanks for the information. In the meantime, I would suggest if anyone has more information, then by all means add it to the comments section of the Argentia post.

The foreign bogeyman

...Rhetorically at least, there has been good mileage to be made in Newfoundland politics by charging governments past and present with having sold the country down the river and by challenging the legitimacy of allegedly perfidious agreements. At one level, indeed, Newfoundland history is a record of attempts to undo the past. If foreign bogeyman can be made part of the story all the better, although the greatest loathing in this particular tradition is perhaps reserved for local politicians who are believed to have aided or engineered the betrayal of their own people. In St. John's especially, a paranoid outlook in such matters has, going back to the nineteenth century, never been far below the surface. In sum, the scapegoat, either at home or from abroad, has figured prominently in Newfoundland political history.

Peter Neary, Newfoundland in the North Atlantic World, 1929 - 1949, (McGill-Queen's university Press, 1988)

War museum continues with exhibit despite controversy

The Canadian War Museum will continue with an exhibit that, in part, notes the ongoing controversy over the Allied bombing campaign against German civilian targets during the Second World War.

In response to complaints from veterans groups, including the Royal Canadian Legion, the museum asked prominent historians to review the exhibit and offer comment. The Museum has not released the commentaries but a spokesman for the museum said the historians viewed the exhibit as "accurate and balanced."

Two of the historians did suggest that the panel in question could be removed since it was "unnecessary."

"Mass bomber raids against Germany resulted in vast destruction and heavy loss of life," the disputed panel reads. "The value and morality of the strategic bomber offensive against Germany remains bitterly contested. Bomber Command's aim was to crush civilian morale and force Germany to surrender by destroying its cities and industrial installations. Although Bomber Command and American attacks left 600,000 Germans dead, and more than five million homeless, the raids resulted in only small reductions in German war production until late in the war."

The Legion, meanwhile, is looking to the senate committee on veterans affairs to conduct an inquiry into the exhibit. It is also continuing a boycott of the museum that began in 2005.

The controversy is reminiscent of complaints about a CBC series, The valour and the horror and its episode on Bomber Command, entitled "Death by moonlight."

The series attracted criticism from historians including Dr. Jack Granatstein. The series was also the subject of a senate committee review.

Sinc eopening in 2005, the new museum has also been the subject of controversy over its protrayal of Canada's military heritage and the design of the building.

Oddly enough, Dr. Dean Oliver, the War Museum's director of exhibits but who at the time was teaching at Carlton University, was critical of the Valour and the Horror. Oliver is a graduate of Memorial University and York University.

Williams media silence golden?

The Telegram's Russell Wangersky muses on the Premier's retreat from the news media.