Municipal campaign shenanigans costly

Take a gander at this story involving a former St. John's city councillor, charges of mischief, withholding information from the police and generally a tale that raises many more questions about the case than the trial will resolve.

But here's a bit of perspective for pure contrast: the total cost incurred by the former councillor to deal with the damage was $160.

About five years ago, your humble e-scribbler had his credit card lifted from his jacket as it hung in the closet at his office. There were a limited number of suspects and the credit card company confirmed that $300 worth of groceries were charged to the card at a supermarket within walking distance of my office at the time.

There were security cameras in the supermarket.

There were three likely suspects of which one could be eliminated almost right away. The police had good physical descriptions and complete current contact information since the suspects were being interviewed for a job when the theft occurred.

The police response was much less than enthusiastic and little - if anything - was done beyond filling out the mandatory forms.

In the municipal shenanigan's case - involving $160 - there was repeated attention from the police, regular contact with the candidate, fingerprint evidence taken and analysed at a lab on the mainland and now a trial involving a prosecutor being shipped in from central Newfoundland to handle what may well be a lost cause for the Crown.

There's more on the case at Meeker on media.

Scotia Economics confirms NL economic projections

Add Scotia Economics to the list of economic prognosticators showing the Newfoundland and Labrador economy going from leading the nation this year to trailing it next year.

While the latest provincial projections show 2007 to be leding the country in real GDP growth (4.0% estimated), SE shows the province as posting 1.5% real GDP growth next year.

Confusion reigns in Alberta

What exactly is the Government of Alberta's position on Equalization?

Does anyone know?

Does anyone care?

Randomly Generating Laughs

Responsible Government League's Liam O'Brien tears into the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation for a story on the CBC website about Cuban elections.

He titled the piece "Castro's Broadcasting Corporation" and then uses the piece to launch into a tirade about Castro (fair enough) and the CBC.

That's where things get hysterically funny, but only because Liam made the biggest knee-jerk reaction in a while:

The CBC reporter is either the most dumb and biased this side of Susan Murray or honestly believes that the Communist Cuban government that still curbs free speech and any other freedoms in many severe ways, are telling the truth. No wait, those two options are pretty much the same.

Perhaps the folks over at the CBC need a reminder of what sort of free "elections" Fidel has in mind.

The problem for Liam is that if his knee hadn't been hyperflexing so wildly - just because he loathes the CBC for some reason - therefore smacking himself in the forehead and inducing some state of confusion, Liam might have noticed that the story CBC ran was actually from the Associated Press, right down to the last quotation mark.

For those who aren't familiar with that news organization, let's just say that it is one of the leading news services on the planet. But it is based in the United States and directed by a board made up of major and minor honchos of major and minor news outlets across the Socialist Republic of Ameristan.

Thanks for the laugh, Liam.

Maybe if he gets suitably riled about something real, he'll tackle the Noreen Golfman piece in the Indy back in January. That's unlikely since it would involve commenting negatively on what one suspects is his beloved local weekly.

ADQ would expand Quebec's hydro potential

Le soleil reports that the ADQ would accelerate development of an additional 10000 megawatts of Quebec hydroelectric potential if the party forms the next Government of Quebec.


ADQ leader Mario Dumont also said he would negotiate with Newfoundland and Labrador to develop Labrador's power potential.

The pension plan deal so nice...

They announced it twice.

New finance minister Tom Marshall announced on Thursday that the province will borrow almost $1.0 billion to cover a portion of the unfunded liability in public sector pension plans.

The project will involve an immediate injection of $400 million with a further $597 million to come no later than June 30.

Is this the same announcement as the one made by the old finance minister, Loyola Sullivan, last December?

Notice that Marshall said nothing about the $400 million Sullivan said would be borrowed in December with a further amount later in the fiscal year.

Something says the Sullivan plan got caught in the serial government's decision-making grinder and what was supposed to happen in December was delayed until March.

Rideout strikes another blow against free enterprise

Fish minister Tom Rideout tries to explain government's decision on Fishery Products International.

He still can't define what the public interest is in the whole affair.

Rideout also can't explain how it is the public interest to have governing controlling the operations of private sector companies. If Tom wants to run a fish plant let him quit politics and borrow some cash.

One of the big questions in the whole FPI thing remains whether or not the federal government will agree to let Tom make money off the fish quotas and use them to keep every plant worker he can eligible for EI. That's about the only interest there could be in having the provincial government own fish quotas: keeping the fishing industry in the same mess it was the last time Rideout was fish minister.

Carry on minister

Last year, it was Danny Williams versus a third rate celebrity on CNN:

The choice: Energy powerhouse promoter or seal hunt defender?

DW: I'll take seal hunt defender for 30 minutes, Larry.

The Prem must be busy this year, so instead of the main act, the road company of the province's 2007 edition of March Madness will be headlined by fish minister Tom Rideout, right.

He's leading a crew to an anti- anti-seal hunt stunt on Parliament Hill in Ottawa.

Hilarity is sure to ensue.

They are calling it Up the Anti! and in every respect, the whole affair is reminiscent of the international public relations disaster led by Frank Moores in the 1970s or Codpeace, another one of those silly ideas someone milked for a few minutes of fame around the same time.

The marketing genius who came up with the name of the latest effort should have tried a google search first. ironic given this administration's apparently difficulty with Internet search engines that Danny Williams will be talking to the province's high-tech industry on Friday about expanding business opportunities in cutting-edge technologies.

But I digress.

uptheanti.org leads you to a "resource for collecting interesting articles and items for anarchists and autonoms from across the web."

In 2005, Up the Anti! was the title of a performance by comedian Eddy Brimson at the Edinburgh Fringe Festival. The blurb went like this:

After having his house raided by MI5, Brimson has a few 'issues': Anti-Hunt, Anti-Royal, Anti-Police and ultimately Anti-Establishment. Mixing stand-up with reconstruction... A true comedy terrorist... You've been warned.

The reviews weren't all that good.

But look, if we are going to resurrect ancient comedies, why not try and imitate something genuinely funny?

Like the Carry on... series of films that ran to tremendous success from the 1950s until the 1970s.

Rideout can take the roles normally played by Charles Hawtrey, (left), for example. He's got the toque thing down already.

Danny can probably be enticed to fill in the Sid James roles as the ringleader of the gang. Top billing. One show a night. An interview on Canada AM with Seamus. That sort of thing. bound to get his attention.

There are enough characters in cabinet to fill out the rest of the cast. if they come up short, then there the other members of the House. Some of them could use a trip out of the province.

A revival of Carry on... wouldn't be any less productive than what Rideout has embarked on already.

It would fit in with the cultural strategy that apparently will offset demographic change in the province on top of everything else it is supposed to do. "It's a cultural strategy. It's an economic strategy. No, it's a tourism promotion. No, it fights ageing and promotes immigration."

And it will make your dishes sparkly, like new.

One strategy.

Five uses.

Coming soon to The Shopping Channel, with Tom Hedderson sandwiched between Tony Little and Joan Rivers.

Heck, a travelling comedy show - billed as such, for a change - might actually be able to charge admission, thereby recovering the hundreds of thousands of public dollars being spent on the pro-seal hunt publicity stunts. And the associated travel that must go with these ventures, of course.

It might even generate enough cash to offset the cost of last year's laugh-fest, right.

That might be too much to expect of anything produced by any government.

FPI tortures continue

When it comes to Fishery Products International, the provincial government's definition of "public interest" remains inscrutable to the point of making one wonder if the provincial government knows what the objectives are.

It seems to mean screwing with a company purely for the sake of screwing with it.

Then again, the fish minister, right, seems intent on imposing every hideously bad idea from the past when he was last fish minister.

They didn't work then - in fact they contributed to the mess today - and they certainly aren't working now.

Only in Newfoundland and Labrador do people seem to think that if we do the same things again that didn't work before, they might just work this time.

If that isn't enough to persuade you, consider that the same administration that trumpets its efforts to reduce needless regulation for business has a fish minister who has never seen a pointless regulatory burden on industry he couldn't increase.

Tories take Lab West

The provincial progressive Conservatives took the by election in Labrador West with 1666 votes (42%). The NDP came second with 1240 votes. The Labrador Party was third with 670 votes and the Liberals dragged up the rear with 427 votes.

Turnout was 4003 voters, or 54% of the 7474 officially considered eligible to cast ballots.

Given the latest province-wide poll, the Tories are in an interesting spot. Using those poll results, the Tories should have received almost 3,000 votes. Instead they wound up with 42% of votes cast and 22% of the total eligible vote.

It would be hard to get excited about the result, given the large number of votes cast for the other parties. Clearly, there isn't any overwhelming endorsement of the governing party.

If David Cochrane's analysis is correct, the fight broke down to a Tory/NDP fight in Labrador City and a Tory/Labrador Party fight in Wabush. Those circumstances made it fairly clear the Tories would win.

Add to that the influx of Tories - cabinet ministers and the Premier - all of whom suddenly discovered invitations to speak and to visit the district and you can see the level of pressure applied.

Add to that the influx of cash for the new health centre and you can see how seriously the Tories wanted the seat.

"The one thing is, I didn’t want to come in here and be accused of making all kinds of election promises," he stressed promptly. "But there are commitments we have made over a period of time and the biggest one here is the hospital. And the second one that seems to be biggest of issues on people’s minds here is the road…the [Trans Labrador] Highway. We already indicated last year that we are prepared to put $50 million into surfacing the road. The $50 million we allocated last year we couldn’t use because we were waiting for the feds to step up."

Add to all that, the Premier's last minute interview with the local weekly and you can really see a full court press being played. The Premier backed off significantly on his comments about Iron Ore Company's power contract.

How significantly? Well, this time around he never called it akin to the Churchill Falls contract. Take a look at what he was saying in October. Then notice that he woke up to the political realities in Labrador West once he knew - in January - there was a by election coming. Unfortunately that was after Consolidated Thompson took a pass on buying Wabush Mines.

“We are saying, ‘there is an answer in there somewhere,’” he said of the mining company’s request to extend the rate beyond 2014. “You have to move up…it’s a sign of the times. Provinces like Quebec are trying to attract new industry. They are looking for $4.1 cents, so there is a market rate people are paying now. IOC is in a preferred position [for a lower rate] because they did pass it over to us, but we have maintained it and upgraded it. And, when they did pass it over to us, they passed it over for a reason on the basis that the hydro utility would take it over and absorb the administration, the upkeep and everything else. So it hasn’t just been a one-way ticket and free ride. So we basically said, ‘come back to us with an offer and we will look at it’. We are not being unreasonable on it, but we are not saying we are going to give you a rate like 40 years ago and carry it off into the future because you have to remember, we are trying to get new industry to come in here. So, we have to get a certain rate that’s a commercial rate competitive with Quebec but still fair. So we have to get them to a point that is reasonable so that we are in striking distance of new industry that comes in here. That’s the kind of juggling act we have to go through. So, it is not about being hard-assed or tough or stubborn or anything like that.”

Catch that last part? Danny Williams is shifting his message significantly. On the federal government's planned changes to Equalization, Williams told reporters this week that he was taking a less strident approach so that people wouldn't perceive him as being ready to fight anytime, about anything.

He must have his private pollster pointing out what other people noted long ago. The Danny brand just wasn't working wonders no matter how often the Premier's boosters insisted that the sun coming up in the morning was proof of the glories to come now that there would be no more give-aways.

Danny William's Progressive Conservatives are in full election mode, although polling day is likely coming on October as already planned. Take a look at the news and see how much money is being spent to pave every available blade of grass in every district.

While Tories are rightly pleased at winning this by election, they won't be sitting complacently. Rather, the people of Labrador West can count on getting so much attention they'd swear the Confederation Building was being uprooted and moved to Esker, at least, if not right smack between the two major towns in the region.

That's because the Tory's political people can read poll results like anyone else with half a clue. Having so many people vote against the government party, with all the pressure applied right up to the end, will ensure that the head that wears the crown truly does rest uneasily.

So uneasy, in fact, that he's prepared to toss aside his own personal brand as a relentless fighter if there's a chance of picking up the last few votes of approval in any poll. When you're number one by a considerable margin, apparently you try even harder.

That's really the news we should be watching this week.

Danny Williams last few months in office (up to his retirement already announced) are likely going to be full of surprises.

Adios Normie

Norm Doyle won't be running again.

There's a shock for the guy who had a hard time with the offshore revenues deal and wound up putting his party ahead of his province.

Enjoy the retirement, Norm and the second pension.

Maybe that's why he's bailing now instead of after the budget.

Who will replace him?

Maybe Loyola Sullivan.

Then again, maybe Loyola Hearn will be the next one to pull pin.

This is going to be an interesting year in local politics.

Marshall responds to census figures

Treasury board president Tom Marshall issued a news release this afternoon on the census figures saying "the census counts released today by Statistics Canada are not final population estimates, but merely a step in a larger process used to determine final official population estimates."

Bond Papers readers already knew that the census figure of 505,000 people for the province ere one set of figures. Statistics Canada contends the actual current population of the province is 509,700.

For all the mention of the current administration's strategy for this, that and the other - none of which has had a significant impact on anything - Marshall's comments don't take into account the long term population projections of his own statistics division.

What's more, the Premier's own projections don't show any of his initiatives, including the still-not-released energy plan, having any significant impact on the province for the better part of the next decade.

In fact, the current Statistics Canada figures correspond most closely to the provincial government's low scenario:

Fertility - the total fertility rate continues to decline in line with recent trends, from a rate of 1.32 in 2006 to 1.14 in 2021.

Mortality - life expectancies continue to increase but at rates slightly below historical trends. Male life expectancy increases by 1.9 years between 2006 and 2021. Female life expectancy increases by 1.8 years over the same period.

Migration - with fewer jobs available in the Province under this scenario, net out-migration from the Province averages roughly 3,000 per year for the next two years and thereafter remains in the -2,000 to -1,000 per year range over most of the projection period as strong labour markets in Central and Western Canada continue to attract young workers from other areas of the country.

The low scenario would have the population a decade from now numbering about 475,000 people. What Marshall's comment's also don't consider is that with the other demographic changes taking place, the work force in a decade's time will be smaller than it is today while the retirees and children, will be considerably larger. That means that the current administration's economic plans will not only have to address the natural changes in the population - already projected accurately by the provincial government's own statistics division - they will have to overcome the setbacks that result from a decade of lost revenue on projects like Hebron and Hibernia South.

Dalton new chair of MUN board of regents

Gilbert Dalton has been appointed new chair of the Memorial University Board of Regents.

Of course, this had nothing to do with it, but it is an interesting reminder of the arguments made only three years ago.

NL population headed below 500K early

While provincial government demographic projections have long shown the province's population dropping below 500,000 people within the first two decades of the 21st century, the latest census data from Statistics Canada shows the population is already well on its way to that point.
The official 2006 census shows the population of Newfoundland and Labrador at 505,469 people, down from 512,930 in 2001.

That's below the Stats Can estimates of the population last year that showed it at over 509,000. Statistics Canada considers these so-called postcensual figures to be a more accurate reflection of the current population and explains the methodology in a separate note.

Community-by-community numbers are contained on separate data sheets.

The census figures show a net population change. It does not indicate outmigration exclusively. Some of the population change in Newfoundland and Labrador would include internal migration from towns to towns or towns to cities.

Newfoundland and Labrador's population declined by 1.5% between 2001 and 2006, one of only two provinces experiencing a decline during the most recent five year census period. Only Saskatchewan also experienced decline between 2001 and 2006.

Between 1996 and 2001, the province's population declined by 7% in the aftermath of the cod moratorium. The population of Newfoundland and Labrador hasn't been below 500,000 people since the late 1960s.

Bonus demographic question

What three things likely contributed to the dramatic decline in some sexually transmitted illness rates in Newfoundland and Labrador in the past 25 years?

Take gonorrhea, for example. Exactly 792 cases in this province in 1980. Only one in 2004.

Why the massive drop?

What about chlamydia? Not such a dramatic decline at all. In fact both the number of cases reported and the rate of infection in the population has gone up since the early 1990s.

Take a look at last year's release from Health Canada and you won't get a clue. Nationally, gonnorhea is on the increase, as is chlamydia.

It doesn't make sense that our population would buck the trend so dramatically.

Alberta focuses on its federal cash

As noted yesterday, Alberta finance minister Lyle Oberg is focusing attention on federal transfers other than Equalization.

Lorne Calvert insists that Oberg's boss - Ed Stelmach - hasn't changed his position.

Ever notice that with Danny Williams - and now Lorne Calvert - it's never the person who does the denying? Danny - and now Lorne - is the guy to tell us what the other guy committed to or didn't commit to.

Like Paul Martin.

Like Stephen Harper.

Like all the provincial premiers who supposedly backed Danny in his first fight with Ottawa. [Did anyone ever see a single letter or hear a comment that said anything like 'Go, Danny Go!"?]

And now like Ed Stelmach.

At Bond Papers, we learned a long time ago to take the words of the people involved over Danny's - and now Lorne's - version of things.

It's a safer bet.

Alberta isn't backing Lorne - and Danny - on the Equalization thingy.

Outmigration in perspective, from labradore

Courtesy of Wally Maclean, out migration, in migration and all the other niceties of demographic change.

Newfoundland's hope goes west

From MSNBC and the Financial Times, no less, comes this discussion of the province's looming economic downturn.

The Conference Board of Canada reported last month that Newfoundland and Labrador's economy will expand this year by 5 per cent, up from 1.8 per cent last year, boasting the highest economic growth of any Canadian province this year. However, that growth is expected to end this year, slowing to just 0.4 per cent in 2008 as oil production drops off.

Some minor details are wrong, but fundamentally, the province is being branded as on the decline.

In fact, the story is so clear that Andy Wells looks like a total lunatic when he speaks of the province being at the beginning of a growth cycle.

No amount of advertising and no supply of trade shows can undo the negatives this piece portrays. Then again, the provincial government has actively courted the image of being the place where things aren't happening.

Private investment in NL forecast to drop by 16.2%

That sucking noise is the 2007 forecast for investment in Newfoundland and Labrador from outside the province according to the National Bank of Canada.

New Brunswick leads all provinces with private sector investment growth expected to hit 15.7% during 2007. Much of this strength will come from utilities and manufacturing sector investments. Utilities are also a big factor in Prince Edward Island.

Check the chart in the .pdf linked above. Newfoundland and Labrador will see a decline in investment of 16.2%. Overall, the National Bank puts the investment slowdown in four provinces in a wider perspective that diminishes the impact on the country as a whole.

But if you are in this province, it's difficult to miss the hit, let alone take it.

Creative writing 101

AJ Baker's latest column for the Transcon weeklies includes this statement:

The Conservative party is now in a quandary about what to do before the wrath of Danny Williams befalls them.

Their quandry?

Laugh now or laugh later.

This column would make sense if it had been written three years ago. Today, it makes you wonder where Baker's been all this time.