Mock Williams' promises ad circulates widely in NL

Bond Papers e-mail got bombed with this mock up of a print ad using Danny Williams' own "promises" approach against him.

Here it is.

Think we'll see more of these before October?

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Wade Locke: the story running nationally

Here's what Canadian Press is running on Wade Locke's Equalization assessment.

Note the variance from the numbers cited in the earlier post.

In the first try at crunching the numbers, Memorial University economist Wade Locke -- one of the province's leading experts on offshore revenue deals -- has found if Newfoundland were to stick with the Atlantic Accord and the old equalization formula until 2020, it would receive $18.5 billion in combined revenues.

But if the province follows an optimal strategy -- where it would leave the accord in 2009 and opt into a formula where a fiscal cap is implemented and 50 per cent of non-renewable natural resource revenues are included -- it would receive $24.1 billion, Locke said.

While the 100% exclusion might be better, if it is politically impossible, then it really doesn't exist.

On the other hand, the O'Brien approach - trashed by the Premier and others - generates significant extra cash compared to the existing arrangement for Newfoundland and Labrador.

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Locke on Equalization: Prelim views

Memorial University economist Wade Locke released his own assessment of the various Equalization options last night.

Danny-lovers will rush forward to back their man, irrespective of the facts.

The rest of us can approach the whole business a little more insightfully that the local jingoists.

When the presentation is available on line, Bond will link to it and do a more detailed assessment.

In the meantime, here is a thumbnail sketch courtesy of Bill Callahan's synopsis on Night Line and Simon Lono's debrief via telephone. Under the circumstances, details here may be off, so wait for the full report before jumping off a cliff.

1. The old Equalization system with the offshore deals - the one the province still has - will generate approximately $18 billion for the province over a period of time (to 2020 or thereabouts?).

2. If the province opted for the O'Brien formula (50% exclusion of all resource revenues with a cap), then it would gain $22.8 billion over the same period.

3. The Harper option (100% exclusion of non-renewables only) would come out at $28.6 billion over the same period.

A few preliminary observations:

- Danny Williams was dead wrong about O'Brien.

Like stone cold, in the ground, stake through the heart kinda dead wrong.

So wrong, that being wrong any other way would seem right in comparison.

He claimed it was going to cost the province money.

It does the opposite.

Big time opposite.

Makes ya wonder if Danny reads his briefing notes.

Makes ya wonder if he understands his briefing notes.

Makes ya wonder if he just makes stuff up as he goes along.

- 100% non-renewables out is the best of the three options (if you only look at how much cash it nets.). Never mind the fact, that it is politically unattainable. Contrary to Ken Boessenkool's 2001 assessment, this approach actually generates bags of cash for a province like Newfoundland and Labrador.

Again, never mind that it is politically unattainable.

Unreachable.

A pipe dream.

- Danny Williams will claim vindication. His fellow jingoists will now feel their cause is just. The rest of us will wonder why they are out in the cold screaming when what they want is unattainable.

- No one wants to recall that Williams' own policy was for 100% inclusion of all resource revenues.

There's that pesky wrong thing again.

- 100% inclusion plus the offshore offset deals is still a decent option. It generates cash in the bank to the tune of $18 billion. Nothing to sneeze at. All depends on whether you piss it out the door or actually invest money properly.

- Of course, Danny Williams doesn't want to talk about developing a debt management plan right now, i.e. running the province properly. He's too busy getting his mug on TV.

- Locke apparently didn't assess another option in front of the province, namely 100% exclusion of non-renewables with a cap. Forgotten in the Premier's irk-fest is the fact that the Harperites have actually put three different Equalization formulas in play.

- The province hasn't lost anything.

- The province isn't jammed up, as the Premier seems to suggest.

- The province can still play the choice game and come out with significant bags of cash ahead of where it is today.

- Why is Danny Williams persisting in his racket and committing provincial government policy to a partisan row at public expense?

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Mid-week round-up

1. Even the nationalists are moving from Newfoundland and Labrador. Greg will be missed by many of us.

2. This piece on Scottish separatism has been getting plenty of hits over at Offal News.

3. Then there's this Offal News devastating critique of Danny Williams' comments on Tuesday about the offshore oil industry.

4. It only took a decade, but the federal government is finally building new offices and training facilities for the Canadian Forces at St. John's. The new facility will house CFS St. John's, as well as army, air force and communications reserve units and cadet units.

It's a$101 million capital project.

So why the delayed budget?

Normally, the provincial budget is tabled by the end of March.

This year it will come on April 26.

How come?

The decisions have certainly been made.

This and this are just the latest of a string of budget announcements for the new fiscal year.

Dulce et decorum est

From The Telegram:

"If there doesn't happen to be a job for someone in St. John's in an engineering firm, that's unfortunate. I'm not happy with that. But there has to be some price paid in the short term," [Premier Danny Williams] said.

Partisan abuse of AG even worse

The use of the AG's office for partisan purposes is worse than first thought.

Here's what Premier Danny Williams said to reporters, yesterday:

If three quarters of the people who were reported on happen to be Tory, then — if that was the case and there was some negativity — there then it would be disproportionate to the Tories," Williams said.

"If we do this over the complete period of time, it's a fair representation, because it's all relative."

Even though the problems in the House started after 1997 (by the AG's own reports), Danny Williams wants to use a whole bunch of other members of the House, mostly Liberal, to try and counterbalance what happened over the past decade.

Notice, by the way, that in the past decade, Danny Williams himself has been in the House of Assembly either as Leader of the Opposition or as Premier for six years.

60% of the key period.

Whatever the Auditor General was originally going to do was directly relevant to judging the behaviour of all people seeking re-election. It's especially relevant to use detailed information to balance what those individuals knew and did with what they promised to do.

The Premier also said this:

"If people are going to decide on what's right or wrong in regards of what [incumbents] did was appropriate or inappropriate, then they are in a position to measure what went on before and what went on with other governments, and what the standard was," Williams said.

That assumes that what voters see is a complete record, let alone one that is relevant to the goings-on in the House over the past decade.

Don't count on that level of disclosure.

After all, the Premier still hasn't come clean on what he knew about the the secret bonus cash, when.

And that's really the crux of the problem for the Premier.

He set the bar.

He should be judged against what undertakings he gave to the electorate.

What Clyde Wells did should be irrelevant. Danny Williams just made it germane.

He won't like the consequences of that comparison.

Weighed.

Measured.

Came up really short.

New Leo 2s for Canadian Army in Afghanistan

Canadian Forces will be leasing 20 Leopard 2A6Ms for service in Afghanistan.

The new tanks will replace a squadron of 30 year old Leopard 1 tanks currently deployed.

AG's office becomes partisan tool

Cabinet has decided to give Auditor General John Noseworthy double the staff so that he can conduct complete assessments of expense claims by every member of the legislature since 1989. The assessment will apparently be done before the general election in October.

Some are describing this as an extension of Noseworthy's mandate from cabinet from July 2006.

They are wrong.

Noseworthy was asked to assess claims to determine if their was overspending dating back to 1989.

He did that and found none.

The second phase of Noseworthy's mandate - at least according to the order-in-council issued last summer - was to conduct a comprehensive audit of the years from 1998 to the present. presumably that was to piece together the expense records for the entire legislature, given that the former financial director was fond of overwriting his spreadsheets.

Instead, Noseworthy is checking to see what members of the legislature claimed on their expense accounts. Premier Danny Williams says he wants the whole pile - over 120 current and former members - to be assessed so people can compare current sitting members of the legislature to those of the past.

This is a complete change of mandate, presumably with the full support of the cabinet. it's noticeable that the detail audit, which would have revealed far more about current members of the legislature on both sides of the House, has apparently been conveniently shelved.

Odd that Williams would do that.

Odd that is unless former members of the legislature, like say Danny Dumaresque, were planning to run again and Williams might be looking for more dirt to use during the campaign. He decries personal attacks when aimed at him, but loves to launch them against others.

Williams should release every single report, unedited to the public on every single expense by every single legislator.

That's the only way to be fair and non-partisan.

That way, we - the voters - can all see what happened.

Odds are though that Noseworthy will let the public see only measly dribs of information approved for disclosure and likely long after the information has been disclosed to cabinet.

Noseworthy's reports thus far have been grossly inadequate in virtually every respect. We should expect nothing better this time around.

Only full disclosure would be fair.

Anything else smells of dirty, old-fashioned partisan politics.

For some of us, the truly bizarre idea is that Williams would want to have himself compared to former members of the legislature.

For example, when it comes to accountability, transparency and accomplishment in a short time span compared to, say, a Premier 15 years ago, Danny Williams can be weighed, measured and found sadly wanting on every score.

Ditto for his deputy.

Williams: Just the facts, Ma'am

In the ongoing spittle contest with the federal government, Premier Danny Williams held a scrum today and issued a news release on the facts of Prime Minister Stephen Harper's broken promise.

Did Harper break a promise?

Yes.

Has anyone shown the financial impact on the province?

Nope.

That's a set of facts the provincial government isn't talking about.

Are there things the Premier isn't talking about besides that?

Yes. Take this excerpt:

The Premier also agrees that for now there is no cap on the Atlantic Accord. But the province will be forced in the near future to take the same alternative as Nova Scotia was forced to take in their budget last week which results in a cap on its accord revenues.

What the Premier didn't say is that he's referring to the point when the provincial government goes off Equalization, i.e. becomes a so-called "have" province.

That's a cap built in to the 2005 offshore Equalization offsets deal.

or consider this bit:

The Premier also pointed out that contrary to some commentaries recently Newfoundland and Labrador in fact contributes greatly to the Canadian federation, in particular as it relates to natural resource revenue.

“Over the life of our three existing offshore oil projects, projections indicate the federal government could take in approximately $20 billion on those projects, and several billions of dollars on the Voisey’s Bay project,” added Premier Williams. “These are just two examples of the contributions our province make to this federation; contributions which greatly assist the federal government in delivering important programs and services to the Canadian people.”

Note the conditional language; the federal government "could take in."

Ok. Well, over the life of the projects - upwards of two decades - it likely will hit that number.

What about the provincial take?

Well, you won't hear those figures from the provincial government.

Provincial government revenue from the offshore isn't convenient when you have been busily spreading the myth that that every single development deal ever done before October 2003 was bad, that we always gave away our resources.

And for the record, the federal revenue from economic activity in Newfoundland and Labrador ran at about $4700 per person in 2004. Federal transfers to the provincial government, to individuals and to companies ran at about double that in the same year.

The Premier is right. Newfoundland and Labrador does contribute tremendously to the country.

It also reaps tremendous benefits.

Just as well to acknowledge the facts.

The question is how the province can grow and thrive in the future.

People certainly can't support good policies if all they have is a selective presentation of "facts" in a government news release.

We sure won't get anywhere with a pointless war of words with the federal government.

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Matthews packs it in

Federal member of parliament Bill Matthews (Lib., Random-Burin-St. George's) announced on Tuesday he will wind up his 25 year career in politics when the writ is dropped for the next federal election.

Matthews was first elected in 1982 as a provincial Progressive Conservative. He moved to federal politics in 1997 and crossed the floor to sit as a Liberal under Jean Chretien.

Speculation will now mount to see who might try to replace him.

Among the names likely to surface: former provincial Liberal cabinet minister Kevin Aylward, who represented a provincial seat in the western end of the riding. Current Liberal member of the House of Assembly Judy Foote's name will also likely be tossed around. Her provincial district is in the eastern end of the riding.

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Defence report notes threat to oil refineries

According to CanWest's David Pugliese, an internal defence department report notes that oil refineries across Canada could become a target for terrorists aimed at crippling the North American economy.

A military exercise planned for the NorthWest Territories in April will apparently include a scenario involving threats against an oil refinery. Troops involved in the exercise will come from Western Canada and the Maritimes.

Offshore rig security is not a new issue. In February, a message posted to an al-Queda website called for attacks on energy infrastructure in North America, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia.

Canada's special operations unit, JTF 2, has trained for security incidents involving offshore oil rigs. [Photo: Department of National Defence]

Pugliese notes that some of the possible threats globally include attacks on choke points where tankers pass on the way to and from oil storage and refining facilities.

In Newfoundland and Labrador, such a choke point exists in Placentia Bay. Tankers laden with crude from the local offshore and from the Middle East regularly transit the Bay on the way to and from both the Come by Chance refinery and the Whiffen Head oil transshipment facility.

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White Rose production increase approved

The provincial government has approved a production increase for the White Rose oil field, taking annual maximum production from 36.5 million barrels up to 50 million barrels.

The production increase will likely mean the project will achieve payout sooner. As a result provincial royalties will increase to 30% per barrel once payout is achieved.

According to the Globe and Mail, this production increase request was submitted at the same time as a proposal to bring additional oil on stream. That proposal hasn't been approved yet.

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Keith Coombs: poseur future Dan-didate

Keith Coombs, the St. John's city councilor chiefly responsible for the public money pit called St. John's sports and entertainment should perhaps think about showing some concern for his miserable track record.

More attention to that, say, rather than engaging in a completely pointless little speech about boycotting a meeting with Loyola Hearn. Coombs lacks credibility on matters of public finance given his sorry track record at city hall.

Prediction: Coombs is sucking around the Premier to see if he might get a nod to tackle Hearn on behalf of the premier in the next federal election.

If there was a provincial seat open in a St. John's seat, Keith might run there, but since the place is already chock-a-block full he can look at earning the favour of his Fearless Leader and run as a Dan-didate for the Premier's federal political party, soon to be announced.

Prediction the Second: Coombs will get his money-wasting political butt smeared all over the electoral map.

Residents of St. John's know Coombs too well.

Residents of Mount Pearl, who make up a chunk of the riding of Keith's dreams, don't want him any more than the people of Southlands do.

Closely Related Prediction: Oh yeah, speaking of municipal politicians looking to upgrade. Word out of Mount pearl is that Mayor Steve Kent's campaign team is organized and the cash is in the bank.

Kent, who just a few short months ago was backing Liberals at a Liberal convention in Montreal, is lined up to replace Harvey Hodder when he packs it in a few short months from now.

Kent will be running as a Dan-didate, by the way. The only political party that hasn't received the ambitious mayor's political attention would seem to be the NDP.

A fair share of oil and gas revenues

It's the first anniversary of the death of the Hebron negotiations.

Following are three slides from a presentation by Memorial University economist Dr. Wade Locke tackling the question of whether or not the province is getting its "fair share" from oil and gas revenues.

The entire presentation and an article based on the slides can be found at links here.

Figure 1, above, compares the government "take" across several jurisdictions. Locke defines the government "take" as government revenues divided by net cash flows.

Figure 2, above, shows the change in government "take" as oil prices increase per barrel. Note where Newfoundland and Labrador falls in relations to the other jurisdictions, including Alberta.

Figure 3, above, compares net cash flows among the two orders of governments and the companies.

Reading the article and follow the slides one gets a very different impression than the one left by the provincial government on what is involved in the issue of offshore revenues and the provincial government's "fair share".

For example, as noted last year, Premier Danny Williams told the House of Assembly that the 4.9% equity position in Hebron was worth about $1.5 billion over the life of the project, compared to the estimated revenue to the treasury of $8.0 to $10.0 billion over the life of the project.

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Feds take out radio, newspaper ads challenging NL Premier

OTTAWA - The federal Conservatives are hitting back at the premier of Newfoundland with radio and newspaper ads, The Canadian Press has learned.

The feds will respond to Danny Williams, who ran ads of his own last week accusing them of breaking a promise to his province with the recent federal budget.

The ads will begin running Tuesday, according to an internal government memo.

The memo includes talking points for Tory MPs when speaking about the federal-provincial imbroglio, including: Ottawa never broke its promise, Newfoundland and Labrador gets more money under the budget, and Danny Williams just wants a special deal which would be unfair to other provinces.

The budget has angered Newfoundland and Nova Scotia because it says they can only access a newer, more generous equalization program if they give up the Atlantic Accord.

That accord, signed with the previous Liberal government, excluded offshore oil revenues from equalization calculations.

Update: The Canadian Press version here.

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Ont. links Lower Churchill support to feds and Quebec

Ontario energy minister Dwight Duncan told reporters in St. John's on Monday that his province won't be purchasing any Lower Churchill power unless Quebec and the federal government back the project.

Duncan spoke to reporters following a meeting with Newfoundland and Labrador natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale.

The vocm.com story is based on comments by Premier Danny Williams, comments made before Duncan met with reporters. Obviously what Williams described as "a serious look" by Ontario at the project, doesn't match up with the reality.

As Bond Papers has noted before, the Lower Churchill project may not proceed. The current war between Williams and the federal government makes it extremely unlikely that the federal government will invest in the project in order to meet the 2009 timeline for project sanction.

Williams has also criticised Quebec for its supposedly unstable political climate.

In this cbc.ca story, the Dunderdale correctly describes the federal government's commitment to the project, saying: "Right now, we've got a commitment from Prime Minister Harper that he would consider financing for the project...". Premier Danny Williams consistently misrepresents Prime Minister Stephen Harper's commitment as being a loan guarantee.

Duncan's comments make it clear that potential customers will want to see the financials on the project before they consider buying. So far, the province's hydroenergy corporation hasn't been able to start purchase talks since the financials of the project are still being finalized.

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Oram confirms government is aiming to defeat Harper at polls

The transcript confirms it.

Paul Oram, Premier Danny Williams' parliamentary assistant told radio listeners across Newfoundland and Labrador that the provincial government is aiming to see Stephen Harper's Conservatives defeated at the polls in the next federal general election.

As Oram put it:

You know people have the right to vote anyway they want and sure we right now as a government feel that he [we?] would really like to see Stephen Harper gone but the fact of the matter is the people will vote, its their voice that will vote and it's the same here. [Emphasis added]

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Danny Williams: "My solution is to get rid of Harper."

From ctv.ca, based on Premier Danny Williams appearance on CTV's Question Period and reports from local affiliate NTV.

Williams told a vocm.com radio call-in show this morning that criticism of his efforts across the country are coming from or are influenced by the "communications spin" coming from the Prime Minister's Office.

Williams made the same claim during the 2004/05 flag flap. Polling conducted for Williams office showed that 60% of those surveyed were "not supportive at all" of Williams' decision to remove Canadian flags from any provincial government buildings in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Meanwhile, Williams' campaign to defeat Stephen Harper at the polls is causing rifts not only between the provincial Progressive Conservative Party and its federal cousin, but reportedly within the provincial party as well. Williams' branded federal Conservatives, saying anyone who supports the federal government has betrayed his or her province. In doing so, Williams also labelled three federal Conservative members of parliament, all of whom are very popular with local voters.

Update

Danny Williams saidon vocm.com's Open Line with Randy Simms:

But what's happening is you're being influenced by the PMO spin. I mean, you know, the Prime Minister's Office has a huge, huge communications network and, so, you know, this is where the letters to the Globe and Mail are coming from and all of that and they'll, they'll fight that.

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Taking out Harper

While it will take a check of the transcript to be certain, it sure sounded like Paul Oram, Premier Danny Williams' parliamentary secretary, told listeners to vocm.com's Night Line that the Newfoundland and Labrador government is working to see Stephen harper's government defeated at the polls in the next federal election.

Does that get bumped up ahead of taking ExxonMobil out or will Harper have to wait until last April's Big Promise is fulfilled?

Can anyone keep track of these unfulfilled promises?

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