The Friday before it starts #nlpoli

There are plenty of signs that the federal Conservatives will start the official campaign for the fall election earlier than scheduled.  Earlier being as soon as Monday, rather than the usual federal campaign period of five or six weeks before polling day on October 19.

You’ve got to call it the official campaign because the fixed election date has meant that parties engage in an unofficial campaign months before the official campaign starts.  All the Conservatives will do – if they drop the writ on Monday – is trigger some particular election rules and get the open warfare started a bit earlier than usual.

In Newfoundland and Labrador, the early federal election will have a significant impact on the provincial election due in November.  We are not talking about the strain on campaign volunteers.  We are talking about public attention and money.

Candidate scuttlebutt - St. John's

1.  Connie organizers are working hard to get Tom Rideout in St. John's East.

2.  Hearn is out but Loyola "Rainman" Sullivan is in to replace him.

3.  Reg Anstey will declare for the NDP in St. John's South.

4.  Jack Harris...oh that never was scuttlebutt any way.

-srbp-

Backuppable Tom to run for federal Connies?

The Family Feud could get infinitely more entertaining if local political rumours hold true.

Former Provincial Conservative Premier Tom Rideout is looking at running for the federal Conservatives according to CBC's David Cochrane.  When Rideout quit Danny Williams' cabinet a couple of months ago, Bond Papers had Rideout looking at a run against incumbent Liberal member of parliament Scott Simms in central Newfoundland.

The specific riding isn't as important as the idea of the guy who ran through the 1989 provincial general election like the love child of Speverend Rooner and Mrs. Malaprop running for the federal Conservatives in the fall federal election.

Rideout's departure from provincial politics was never just about a million dollars of roadwork, despite what some people would have you believe. There's quite obviously some considerable animosity between Rideout and Williams, likely dating back to Rideout's leadership win in 1989.

Rideout - who served in key roles in the Williams administration - is in a position to know where more than a few bodies are buried in the Provincial Conservative backyard.  He'd also likely attract a fair bit of support from long-time Provincial Conservative voters and backroom workers who are dissatisfied with the internal party strife resulting from the ongoing Anything But Conservative campaign, as the Family Feud is officially known.

The scrappy veteran campaigner would also be inclined to smack back at any attacks from his former Provincial Conservative caucus and cabinet mates.

Even if Rideout worked behind the scenes or as a spokesperson for the federal Conservatives in the province, the Family Feud could turn out to be the surprise hit of the fall political season. The Family Feud likely won't shift too many votes, but it would be political theatre of the kind the province hasn't seen in years.

-srbp-

The safest Conservative riding in Canada. Not.

That's what your humble e-scribbler thought too, until he bothered to check the facts.

Turns out the seat currently held by Norman Doyle has voted other than Blue a fair bit since 1949.

Years	MP	Party
1949-1953	Gordon Higgins	Progressive Conservative
1953-1957	Allan Fraser	Liberal
1957-1963	Jim McGrath	Progressive Conservative
1963-1968	Joseph O'Keefe	Liberal
1968-1986	Jim McGrath	Progressive Conservative
1987-1988	Jack Harris	New Democratic Party
1988-1993	Ross Reid	Progressive Conservative
1993-1997	Bonnie Hickey	Liberal
1997-2008	Norman Doyle	Conservative

 

Jim McGrath racked up the biggest margins in previous elections, capturing over 70% of votes cast in some elections.

If you want to check for yourself, follow the summary at Wikipaedia down to the bottom.  The data at the Wikipaedia entry is taken directly from Elections Canada  and Library of Parliament results.

-srbp-

Nothing says election like politicians and cash: the desperate leprechaun version

Oil prices may be plummeting and with them gasoline prices, but if you are an incumbent politician looking warily at the electoral weathervane, you'd be talking out loud to anyone who will listen about finding a way to gasoline and other fuel costs.

He might be running a deficit, but federal finance minister Jim Flaherty is talking about finding some way to interfere in the marketplace in a way that would likely bring more problems than it cures.

Next thing he'll be screaming for tight monetary policies and jacking up interest rates to frighten off the inflation demon.

-srbp-

Speaking of deer in the headlights

Boo!

Fall election.

The Connies must be a runnin' skeerd.

Oddly enough, we're talking Canadian Connies frightened of an American Democrat named Obama.

Maybe it's the fear from their American cousins seeping across the border. Maybe it's the fear that if there's a fall federal election in Canada, then somehow the voodoo vibes from the Obama campaign will infect voters in Canada who will dutiful trudge off to the polls and voter for the Liberals.

Anyway, there is the smell of fear in the Connie camp.

But, c'mon, Kate.

Seriously?

A Rush Limbaugh youtube vid is evidence of something other than your need to get out more?

Count the number of posts attacking Obama.

Talk about a "tell".

-srbp-

The inevitable headline

First this.

Watch next for Jack Harris to announce he'll run for the Dippers, which will make the next headline, followed by the next one: Harris wins in landslide.

Ironically, Jack Harris was first elected as a member of parliament in a Jurassic Park battle where he was the furry, agile little mammal as the alternative to two dinosaurs.

Now, Harris will likely be one of the dinosaurs, but with no alternative, voters will have an extremely limited choice.

The thing about inevitable headlines is that they aren't all inevitable; the other thing about them is that if the first one turns out to be inevitable, the rest will just fall in line.

-srbp-

A facebook launch?

Other candidates have already announced intentions to seek the Liberal nod in Avalon.

Scott Andrews hasn't.

Yet.

But he has a facebook group.

And a campaign sign.

-srbp-

Decima maybe not so rogue

Decima's latest poll results show the Conservatives and Liberals in a dead heat.

Maybe Decima's results the last time they reported weren't such a rogue after all.

Maybe there's something to the latest buzz from the Hill, namely that the Conservatives had a script for a year. Now the script is finished and there is no ability to improvise.

Evidence?

The Afghan story.

There likely won't be a federal election for some time, but the advantage seems to have passed away from the Conservatives. Let's see if they can get it back.

Matthews packs it in

Federal member of parliament Bill Matthews (Lib., Random-Burin-St. George's) announced on Tuesday he will wind up his 25 year career in politics when the writ is dropped for the next federal election.

Matthews was first elected in 1982 as a provincial Progressive Conservative. He moved to federal politics in 1997 and crossed the floor to sit as a Liberal under Jean Chretien.

Speculation will now mount to see who might try to replace him.

Among the names likely to surface: former provincial Liberal cabinet minister Kevin Aylward, who represented a provincial seat in the western end of the riding. Current Liberal member of the House of Assembly Judy Foote's name will also likely be tossed around. Her provincial district is in the eastern end of the riding.

-30-