Danny Gushue?

Olympic curler Brad Gushue dumped yet another member of his Olympic Gold medal team this past week, claiming there were "chemistry" problems.

But, as the Telegram is reporting, Jamie Korab wonders that he might have gotten the flick for questioning Gushue. The skip apparently took that as a "personal attack."

Following the end, Gushue reportedly told his team not to give up. Korab reminded his skip not to give up, either.

The two bantered back and forth with Korab calling Gushue a hypocrite.

All I’m saying, Korab apparently told his skip, is you’re telling us not to quit. I’m telling you not to quit.

Korab said Gushue then said something — he won’t say what it was— “snarky”.

“I said, ‘Brad, come here. Let’s talk about this.’ I said, in an assertive way if you want to call it that, ‘You say stuff like that to us all the time and it’s the first time I’ve ever said anything to you about it.’”

For the next couple of days, the two didn’t speak. Korab was waiting for an apology.

“But no, I was in the wrong for this because I had made a personal attack on him, which wasn’t the case,” Korab said.

A few weeks ago, rumours abounded that Danny Williams' crew was pitching the idea that Gushue should run for the Williams' party in the next provincial general election.

If Korab's story is accurate, now we know why.

Oh, an by the way, Gushue has been taking plenty of criticism on the local talk shows for the decision.

(Side note to Team Danny statistician: Further to your e-mail, that should put at 10,000 the number of times Bond Papers has mentioned the skip of your team. Thanks for keeping track.)

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The view from here and there

Check out this posting on Craig Westcott's speech.

Small dead animals is a leading Conservative blog.

The real meat in this one can be found in the comments, especially those by Newfoundlanders and Labradorians not currently living in the province.

(h/t to labradore.)

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Video Friday

Some video for Friday, the stuff that will set you thinking. Set you thinking that is, if you go here first.

Alanis' send-up of the Black Eyed Peas is funny.

But notice that you can really hear the lyrics and that is what will animate the link for you.

Queen's cowboys in another mess

This case will surely reach the Supreme Court of Canada.

Apparently the Mounted Police spokesperson is referring to this 1999 Supreme Court of Canada case, which on the face of it does not involve comparable circumstances.

The woman involved, who had mistakenly dialed 911 instead of 411 met officers on the front porch and while she denied them access to her private residence - as is her common law right - the attending could easily ascertain that there was nothing untoward occurring. Well, at least that's what the couple pursuing the lawsuit will contend.

The police will likely invoke the spectre of child porn and whatever other horrors might theoretically be going on in the residence in an effort to line up their actions with the reasoning laid out in the case law, including the 1999 SCC decision.

For a quickie summary of police detention powers, take a gander at this lucidity written piece.

Too bad the police didn't read this little summary provided by a law enforcement association in 2001 to British Columbia police officers.

Lawyers out there may wish to offer some insights.

R'uh R'oh

Premier Danny Williams may have given the Auditor General extra staff to shift the focus of his review of the House of Assembly spending scandal, but John Noseworthy is peeved about lack of access to documents to conduct a review of the fibreoptic deal.

In a scathing letter to Innovation, Trade and Rural Development Minister Trevor Taylor this week, auditor general John Noseworthy says his office still has not been provided with all necessary information.

Noseworthy said he has identified documentation that has not been turned over by the government, and as a result, “it is becoming increasingly difficult for me to have any confidence in this process.”

Good thing Danny's gone on vacation.

This story, on top of Wade Locke's assessment of the Equalization racket, would make for as uncomfortable a weekend as he's spent since taking office.

We can expect to hear the moaning when he gets back.

And for the record, there is no truth to the rumour that Williams has hired a former senior DND official with experience in shagging up the Somalia inquiry to liaise with Noseworthy on this and other files.

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Wanted: big player with deep pockets

The new refinery proposed for the top of Placentia Bay needs at least one major backer with deep pockets.

The backers of a new refinery on the Newfoundland coast say the US$4.6-billion project will likely only succeed if a large international oil player steps up as a partner.

From the Financial Post.

Upodate: the original corporate news release.

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A rejoinder to the local fisheries myth-mongers

From Offal News, with chunks from Jeffrey Simpson's column.

We have at our disposal the policies to correct problems in the fishery.

Local myth-mongers simply refuse to change.

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Rejected license plate

The daily e-mails yeilded this mock-up of a rejected provincial license plate.

This one has a special meaning for your humble e-scribbler.

(h/t to Donny, via e-mail, whoever you are)

Update: The photograph of a sample license plate - HMV 049 - that accompanied the original news release has been replaced by the comms people at Confederation Building. It now leads to a drawing of the license plate.

Too late.

The license plate will be morphed as many times as the triffid logo was back when that fiasco was unveiled.

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Another Dan-didate?

Walter Noel, left, is a former provincial Liberal cabinet minister and a former federal Liberal candidate.

On Open Line with Randy Simms this morning, Noel said he had written the Premier suggesting the province commission a report to look at the economics of Confederation and show how Newfoundland and Labrador hasn't been receiving its "fair share" or getting "fair treatment".

Noel claimed that the 2002 Airing of Grievances didn't produce such a report.

Well, not exactly.

There is a report titled "Newfoundland and Labrador: Towards an Assessment of the Benefits of the Canadian Economic Union."

Here's the executive summary:

This report was commissioned by the Royal Commission on Renewing and Strengthening our Place in Canada to provide information regarding the economic, fiscal and other benefits to Canada and to Newfoundland and Labrador of the province’s presence in the federation.

In 1949, Newfoundland and Labrador joined Canada to secure a brighter economic future for itself – and its new country. In the ensuing half century, Newfoundland and Labrador has certainly become wealthier but has struggled to keep pace economically with the rest of the country and with its trading partners. Perhaps unfairly, the province has too often been characterized as a place with no jobs and dependent upon the transfer payments it became entitled to upon Confederation.

A region’s growth involves at least four kinds of external relationships: (i) trade, or the import and export of goods and services; (ii) migration of people, both in their capacity as consumers and in their capacity as workers; (iii) interregional “migration” of other production factors, notably investment capital; and (iv) the national government’s revenue collection and expenditure in the region. This report examines the current state and evolution of each of these external relationships and in doing so provides information to help assess the benefits to Newfoundland and Labrador from the Canadian economic union.

Fiscal Benefits

This report finds that the federal government’s net spending in the province has not been a major factor in the overall national fiscal position. Newfoundland and Labrador’s size meant that more populous provinces receive substantially larger sums of federal money and have a larger impact on the federal government’s overall fiscal position.

Federal spending in Newfoundland and Labrador has declined over the last few years. In fact federal spending in Newfoundland and Labrador as a share of spending throughout the country has fallen 0.5% over the last decade – the largest decline of any province – while over the same period Ontario and British Columbia have seen their share of Federal spending rise.

Trade Benefits

The rest of Canada has and continues to benefit from the economic union by exporting goods and services to Newfoundland and Labrador. Companies in Ontario and Quebec have benefi ted the most from trade with Newfoundland and Labrador. While consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador have benefited from lower prices for imported goods and services since Confederation, it is only now that Newfoundland and Labrador businesses are starting to see a significant increase in their benefit from the domestic market.

Investment in the development of the province’s major oil projects will continue to support high levels of imports for a few years. The production from these projects will, however, start to generate substantial export revenue and help push the trade balance towards a surplus position.

Labour Benefits

People from Newfoundland and Labrador can be found across the country making significant contributions to their local economy. This study estimated that for every 10 current residents in Newfoundland and Labrador, there are 4 people born in the province that are now living elsewhere in Canada. By moving to fill jobs required in the rest of Canada, the Newfoundland and Labrador labour force has acted to reduce labour market disruptions caused by labour shortages in other provinces. The current study estimates that a flow of workers to other provinces the amount of which is equal in size to the number of people born in Newfoundland and Labrador but now resident in other provinces would reduce competitiveness and economic
performance leading to a $1.1 billion reduction in the federal government surplus. The latter amount is equal to about 40% of the current federal deficit in the province.

The loss of these people has, however, been at best a mixed blessing to Newfoundland and Labrador. The loss of productive workers and their associated demand depresses economic activity – but it does reduce competition for jobs for those that remain.

Natural Resource Benefits

For the last forty years investment capital has been concentrated in the development of the province’s natural resources. While these projects have brought jobs and income there are lingering questions about whether the province receives an appropriate return on its natural resource wealth.

The impact of the Churchill Falls hydro-electric power contract with Hydro Quebec is significant. The loss in real provincial GDP (1997 dollars) was estimated to be between $1,500 and $3,000 a person each year throughout the 1990s and – even at the lower end of the range – would be enough to pull Newfoundland and Labrador ahead of both Nova Scotia and New Brunswick in terms of per capita GDP. The benefits to Quebec’s economy have been equally large – supporting the development of a powerful manufacturing sector and providing windfall gains on their electricity exports. The situation has, up to now, stalled the development of hydro-electric resources that would reduce Canada’s dependence on fossil fuels and help us meet our greenhouse gas emissions targets.

The Government of Newfoundland and Labrador appears to collect, at best, a modest return on its natural resource assets.

• The high costs of development and exploration mean that the province collects about one eighth the revenue per barrel of oil that Alberta does. This low revenue rate, combined with a comparatively short lifespan for the projects, means that Newfoundland and Labrador will not benefit from this resource to the same extent that the other oil producing provinces have.

• Provincial revenues from other mining activity are similar to those in other provinces. The more critical issue for this sector is to process the minerals locally. The recent agreement on development at Voisey’s Bay should help the province benefi t in a more significant way from this resource.

• Provincial revenues from the forestry sector are the second lowest in the country. The benefit from this resource appears to accrue to the owners of the province’s pulp and paper mills.

Appropriate natural resources policies are extremely hard to define. Ideally, the province should capture a larger share of the economic rent from its natural resources to help ensure a more prosperous future. The analysis in this report, although limited in scope, would appear to support a review of the province’s natural resources policies.

Other Benefits

Confederation brought a host of other benefits to Canada. The new province helped “complete” the country from coast to coast to coast. While politically Confederation prevented Newfoundland and Labrador from slipping into the United States orbit it has not inhibited the province’s strategic importance to continental defence. By adding 406,000 square kilometres of land to the country, Canada gained a wealth of natural resources and dramatically extended its coastline. As a result, the adoption of the 200 nautical mile limit allowed Canada to add 1,826,000 square kilometers of offshore waters to its territory with access to all the riches of the Atlantic Ocean. This physical enlargement also provided a new shipping outlet on the Atlantic sea lanes with St. John’s harbour and Gander airport is an important waypoint for
international flights.

Finally, the people of Newfoundland and Labrador have not only contributed economically to the success of the rest of the country but have also enriched the culture of the nation through the work of its writers, artists, performers and politicians. The province also enriches our history as the site of the first European settlers in North America.

This report has explored some of the dimensions of the Canadian economic union and
Newfoundland and Labrador’s relationship with it. In 1949, a small economy became part of a larger economy. This action entailed the creation of a customs union for the movement of goods, services and capital; the removal of barriers to labour movement; and the reduction of non tariff barriers. The process of adjustment to these changes has defined economic development in the province since Confederation. With the tumultuous decade of the 1990s behind it, Newfoundland and Labrador can now look forward to a period of sustained growth. The process of adjustment and integration is still ongoing and the policy choices made in St. John’s, Ottawa and the other provincial capitals will help determine how the benefits of the economic union affect the people of Newfoundland and Labrador.

Maybe Wally didn't read the report since it doesn't conclusively demonstrate that his preconceptions are valid.

Maybe he is planning on running as a Dan-didate either provincially or federally next time out.

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Equalization options, by the numbers

The link to Wade Locke's analysis, a Powerpoint slide show. [The link dispappeared.  Here's a text version from the Newfoundland Quarterly]

Read it carefully.

Enjoy all the nice graphs and charts.

This is a goldmine is useful information, including a clear indication that those who seek to poor-mouth the provincial government's revenues are dead wrong.

Update: Here's the cbc.ca story. Unfortunately, the equally solid Telegram article isn't available on line.

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Bad names for groups

Maybe it's an age thing, but when this headline popped up on the screen, your humble e-scribbler thought it was a bit odd for the tongue that walks like a man to be upset about car seats.

Groups and companies need to think about their organizational names just a wee bit.

Mock Williams' promises ad circulates widely in NL

Bond Papers e-mail got bombed with this mock up of a print ad using Danny Williams' own "promises" approach against him.

Here it is.

Think we'll see more of these before October?

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Wade Locke: the story running nationally

Here's what Canadian Press is running on Wade Locke's Equalization assessment.

Note the variance from the numbers cited in the earlier post.

In the first try at crunching the numbers, Memorial University economist Wade Locke -- one of the province's leading experts on offshore revenue deals -- has found if Newfoundland were to stick with the Atlantic Accord and the old equalization formula until 2020, it would receive $18.5 billion in combined revenues.

But if the province follows an optimal strategy -- where it would leave the accord in 2009 and opt into a formula where a fiscal cap is implemented and 50 per cent of non-renewable natural resource revenues are included -- it would receive $24.1 billion, Locke said.

While the 100% exclusion might be better, if it is politically impossible, then it really doesn't exist.

On the other hand, the O'Brien approach - trashed by the Premier and others - generates significant extra cash compared to the existing arrangement for Newfoundland and Labrador.

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Locke on Equalization: Prelim views

Memorial University economist Wade Locke released his own assessment of the various Equalization options last night.

Danny-lovers will rush forward to back their man, irrespective of the facts.

The rest of us can approach the whole business a little more insightfully that the local jingoists.

When the presentation is available on line, Bond will link to it and do a more detailed assessment.

In the meantime, here is a thumbnail sketch courtesy of Bill Callahan's synopsis on Night Line and Simon Lono's debrief via telephone. Under the circumstances, details here may be off, so wait for the full report before jumping off a cliff.

1. The old Equalization system with the offshore deals - the one the province still has - will generate approximately $18 billion for the province over a period of time (to 2020 or thereabouts?).

2. If the province opted for the O'Brien formula (50% exclusion of all resource revenues with a cap), then it would gain $22.8 billion over the same period.

3. The Harper option (100% exclusion of non-renewables only) would come out at $28.6 billion over the same period.

A few preliminary observations:

- Danny Williams was dead wrong about O'Brien.

Like stone cold, in the ground, stake through the heart kinda dead wrong.

So wrong, that being wrong any other way would seem right in comparison.

He claimed it was going to cost the province money.

It does the opposite.

Big time opposite.

Makes ya wonder if Danny reads his briefing notes.

Makes ya wonder if he understands his briefing notes.

Makes ya wonder if he just makes stuff up as he goes along.

- 100% non-renewables out is the best of the three options (if you only look at how much cash it nets.). Never mind the fact, that it is politically unattainable. Contrary to Ken Boessenkool's 2001 assessment, this approach actually generates bags of cash for a province like Newfoundland and Labrador.

Again, never mind that it is politically unattainable.

Unreachable.

A pipe dream.

- Danny Williams will claim vindication. His fellow jingoists will now feel their cause is just. The rest of us will wonder why they are out in the cold screaming when what they want is unattainable.

- No one wants to recall that Williams' own policy was for 100% inclusion of all resource revenues.

There's that pesky wrong thing again.

- 100% inclusion plus the offshore offset deals is still a decent option. It generates cash in the bank to the tune of $18 billion. Nothing to sneeze at. All depends on whether you piss it out the door or actually invest money properly.

- Of course, Danny Williams doesn't want to talk about developing a debt management plan right now, i.e. running the province properly. He's too busy getting his mug on TV.

- Locke apparently didn't assess another option in front of the province, namely 100% exclusion of non-renewables with a cap. Forgotten in the Premier's irk-fest is the fact that the Harperites have actually put three different Equalization formulas in play.

- The province hasn't lost anything.

- The province isn't jammed up, as the Premier seems to suggest.

- The province can still play the choice game and come out with significant bags of cash ahead of where it is today.

- Why is Danny Williams persisting in his racket and committing provincial government policy to a partisan row at public expense?

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Mid-week round-up

1. Even the nationalists are moving from Newfoundland and Labrador. Greg will be missed by many of us.

2. This piece on Scottish separatism has been getting plenty of hits over at Offal News.

3. Then there's this Offal News devastating critique of Danny Williams' comments on Tuesday about the offshore oil industry.

4. It only took a decade, but the federal government is finally building new offices and training facilities for the Canadian Forces at St. John's. The new facility will house CFS St. John's, as well as army, air force and communications reserve units and cadet units.

It's a$101 million capital project.

So why the delayed budget?

Normally, the provincial budget is tabled by the end of March.

This year it will come on April 26.

How come?

The decisions have certainly been made.

This and this are just the latest of a string of budget announcements for the new fiscal year.

Dulce et decorum est

From The Telegram:

"If there doesn't happen to be a job for someone in St. John's in an engineering firm, that's unfortunate. I'm not happy with that. But there has to be some price paid in the short term," [Premier Danny Williams] said.

Partisan abuse of AG even worse

The use of the AG's office for partisan purposes is worse than first thought.

Here's what Premier Danny Williams said to reporters, yesterday:

If three quarters of the people who were reported on happen to be Tory, then — if that was the case and there was some negativity — there then it would be disproportionate to the Tories," Williams said.

"If we do this over the complete period of time, it's a fair representation, because it's all relative."

Even though the problems in the House started after 1997 (by the AG's own reports), Danny Williams wants to use a whole bunch of other members of the House, mostly Liberal, to try and counterbalance what happened over the past decade.

Notice, by the way, that in the past decade, Danny Williams himself has been in the House of Assembly either as Leader of the Opposition or as Premier for six years.

60% of the key period.

Whatever the Auditor General was originally going to do was directly relevant to judging the behaviour of all people seeking re-election. It's especially relevant to use detailed information to balance what those individuals knew and did with what they promised to do.

The Premier also said this:

"If people are going to decide on what's right or wrong in regards of what [incumbents] did was appropriate or inappropriate, then they are in a position to measure what went on before and what went on with other governments, and what the standard was," Williams said.

That assumes that what voters see is a complete record, let alone one that is relevant to the goings-on in the House over the past decade.

Don't count on that level of disclosure.

After all, the Premier still hasn't come clean on what he knew about the the secret bonus cash, when.

And that's really the crux of the problem for the Premier.

He set the bar.

He should be judged against what undertakings he gave to the electorate.

What Clyde Wells did should be irrelevant. Danny Williams just made it germane.

He won't like the consequences of that comparison.

Weighed.

Measured.

Came up really short.

New Leo 2s for Canadian Army in Afghanistan

Canadian Forces will be leasing 20 Leopard 2A6Ms for service in Afghanistan.

The new tanks will replace a squadron of 30 year old Leopard 1 tanks currently deployed.

AG's office becomes partisan tool

Cabinet has decided to give Auditor General John Noseworthy double the staff so that he can conduct complete assessments of expense claims by every member of the legislature since 1989. The assessment will apparently be done before the general election in October.

Some are describing this as an extension of Noseworthy's mandate from cabinet from July 2006.

They are wrong.

Noseworthy was asked to assess claims to determine if their was overspending dating back to 1989.

He did that and found none.

The second phase of Noseworthy's mandate - at least according to the order-in-council issued last summer - was to conduct a comprehensive audit of the years from 1998 to the present. presumably that was to piece together the expense records for the entire legislature, given that the former financial director was fond of overwriting his spreadsheets.

Instead, Noseworthy is checking to see what members of the legislature claimed on their expense accounts. Premier Danny Williams says he wants the whole pile - over 120 current and former members - to be assessed so people can compare current sitting members of the legislature to those of the past.

This is a complete change of mandate, presumably with the full support of the cabinet. it's noticeable that the detail audit, which would have revealed far more about current members of the legislature on both sides of the House, has apparently been conveniently shelved.

Odd that Williams would do that.

Odd that is unless former members of the legislature, like say Danny Dumaresque, were planning to run again and Williams might be looking for more dirt to use during the campaign. He decries personal attacks when aimed at him, but loves to launch them against others.

Williams should release every single report, unedited to the public on every single expense by every single legislator.

That's the only way to be fair and non-partisan.

That way, we - the voters - can all see what happened.

Odds are though that Noseworthy will let the public see only measly dribs of information approved for disclosure and likely long after the information has been disclosed to cabinet.

Noseworthy's reports thus far have been grossly inadequate in virtually every respect. We should expect nothing better this time around.

Only full disclosure would be fair.

Anything else smells of dirty, old-fashioned partisan politics.

For some of us, the truly bizarre idea is that Williams would want to have himself compared to former members of the legislature.

For example, when it comes to accountability, transparency and accomplishment in a short time span compared to, say, a Premier 15 years ago, Danny Williams can be weighed, measured and found sadly wanting on every score.

Ditto for his deputy.