08 May 2007

Federal Connie numbers dip

SES says so and they oughta know.

And guess what?

Danny Williams had no impact on federal Conservative support, regardless of what some mainland pundits say.

It's obvious but it needed to be said.

Afghanistan. Much bigger impact.

But hey, what say we put the question to Nik Nanos, the pollster himself?

-SRBP-

07 May 2007

Rio Tinto ripe for takeover

Mining giant Rio Tinto may be ripe for a takeover bid according to an analyst for Citigroup.
The de-rating of Rio Tinto for example, has opened up a value arbitrage and is now "well into leveraged buyout territory," according to Citigroup analyst Heath Jansen.

"Rio stands out as a potential acquisition candidate, either by private equity or the incumbent mining companies," he said in a note to clients.
Rio Tinto stock traded down in Australia despite the speculation.

Unidentified analysts have also speculated that ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch Shell may be possible buyers of the Australian mine operator.

Rio Tinto's North American operations includes Iron Ore Company of Canada in Labrador.

ExxonMobil is the largest operator in the Newfoundland and Labrador offshore oil industry.

-SRBP-

Where are they now?

Alex Archila, former head of Chevron Canada has been running Madagascar Oil since July 2006.

Hebron failure fallout?

Probably not. They likely just wanted to "move it, move it."

Madagascar's oil and gas reserves may be larger than those offshore Newfoundland and Labrador.

-SRBP-

Chevron looking to Singapore for possible expansion

Chevron, one of the largest integrated energy companies in the world, may be looking at plans to further expand its business in Singapore.
-SRBP-

India looks to attract "Big Oil"

While some parts of the world are making it harder for oil companies to explore and develop, India is changing its regulatory policy to attract Big Oil and its capital for investment.
"An open acreage policy will be much more attractive to us as we can choose the time of entering India’s exploration sector, and also choose the blocks we want to explore," a senior Shell official said.

Shell, like British Petroleum, Chevron, Exxon, Petrobras and Total, did not bid for exploration blocks in earlier NELP rounds.

The timing, to offer the auction of exploration blocks in India in June or July, does not suit most oil companies as they have already put in their capital expenditure on exploration into other areas across the world, the Shell official said.

"By July, we have already put in our annual planned expenditure for exploration in projects. That is one of the reasons why we are not able to bid in the auction in India," said an official of British Gas, which won one exploration block in NELP VI, in partnership with ONGC.

Government officials say the launch of the OALP is slated to take place soon. "We are working towards offering the open acreage policy together with NELP VII. However, that would involve lot of work as data for areas across the country have to be collected," an official at the Directorate General of Hydrocarbons said.
-SRBP-

CF in Afghanistan to get new mine protected vehicles

The Canadian Forces will be taking delivery of 10 Buffalo and Coyote mine protected vehicles.

The Buffalo is an engineering vehicle equipped with a remotely controlled arm for inspecting and detonating improvised explosives of the type that killed eight Canadian soldiers in separate incidents over the past two months.

What makes news?

Some people's travel, according to vocm.com.

One thing: the Council of the federation met for one day on Monday, not the whole week as vocm.com's story states.

So what was DW doing with the rest of his week in Toronto?

-SRBP-

More fibre math

Ok.

How much is this fibre optic thing worth?

The proponents and the provincial innovation minister have referred to $82 million.

The deal announced last fall which includes the second link across the Gulf to Nova Scotia was supposedly worth $52 million. It's also been described as $37 million, but let's take the higher number since it seems to fit.

The only way to get the $82 million figure is to include a federal/provincial initiative announced in 2005 totalling $29.9 which included a total of $10 million split equally between St. John's and Ottawa with Persona tossing in $19.9 million of its own.

Ok. Following so far?

The provincial involvement in the deal last fall was pegged at $15 million.

Add to that the $5.0 million from the earlier project and you get a total of $20 million in provincial cash on a total cost of $82 million.

That gives the provincial involvement of 24% of the cost of the whole schmeer. If you look at the initiative last fall, the provincial government has a 28.8% stake (15/52 = 28.8).

Persona has previously stated that it's commitment in the whole enterprise is about $30 million. (presumably including the $19.9 from the earlier venture).

That puts Persona's involvement in the whole schmeer at 30%. If everything else follows, its share of the $52 million second project appears to be about $10 million, or 19%.

Maybe, just maybe the provincial government would consider providing a simple and straightforward accounting of the whole venture.

At the same time, maybe innovation minister Trevor Taylor would consider making a most obvious argument that so far he has avoided. We can call it innovative if that helps him see the point.

Federal de-regulation of telephone markets may give an unfair advantage to existing dominant players in small markets like Newfoundland and Labrador. Developing new infrastructure to which all potential new competitors can have access (Bell Aliant already owns its own) forestalls the prospect of creating an unfair competitive climate.

It's good for the market as a whole and, if the provincial government can acquire assets for its own emergency purposes in the process, then there is ample justification for a government investment in developing added infrastructure.

Maybe the bleeding obvious - like the s.60 argument for the Equalization racket - doesn't have enough of a fresh-from-the-package smell to attract the attention of people who want everything they've touched to be, well, new.

Sometimes, though, innovation would actually be stating the plainly obvious.

-SRBP-

FPI deal possible, but no quotas for Rideout

After a weekend meeting with the principals, federal fish minister Loyola Hearn is still optimistic a deal can be done.

There just won't be any quotas under the control of the provincial government and Tom Rideout, right.

-SRBP-

06 May 2007

On the horns of a nationalist dilemma

Meanwhile, things in Newfoundland cannot be going too well, if columnists not normally given to doubting the Premier find themselves doing just that.
Williams had a genuine desire to lift Newfoundland out of its second-class morass when he was first elected. Having encountered all the usual obstacles along the way, however, he has become increasingly volatile. This is regrettable, since it gives the ever-present gallery of negative nellies ample opportunity to shift focus away from the issues and onto the person.
There are those of us who would contend that the volatile and hostile rhetoric has been present from the outset. As for the personal, well, that's what the man himself chooses to make the focus of everything. Those who have criticised him personally simply fall into the trap of the Premier's own rhetoric, which is calculated to avoid a discussion of the issues themselves and more particularly whether or not the Premier's approach is the appropriate one.

-SRBP-

Update: Once you've finished with Peter's dilemma, above, consider the silliness offered up as a self-described "brilliant" suggestion from Bill Rowe. For those who don't know, Bill is a non-practising lawyer who recently received his Q.C. and for a brief period was Danny Williams' personal emissary to Hy's.

Rowe suggests in his most recent column that Danny Williams should take a shot at becoming leader of the federal Liberals.

This is funny - fall-down laughing funny - for the following reasons:

1. The job of leading the federal Liberal Party is already taken, by a federalist. Williams' autonomist ideas wouldn't really fit.

2. Williams himself has made savage attacks on the Liberal Party in the past and continues to do so as circumstances warrant. Witness his recent speech in Toronto and the completely fictitious account of the Churchill Falls deal he gave.

3. This is the same Bill Rowe who, not so long ago, seriously proposed that Newfoundland and Labrador should abandon federal Canada and instead merge with an independent Quebec. Rowe didn't think the new state would be federal.

Nope.

Bill thinks it's a brilliant idea to have Newfoundland and Labrador ruled from Quebec City in a unitary state, undoubtedly in which French was the only official language.

Rowe's French is passable but apparently prevented him from reading a biography of Trudeau before writing a column on it. Thank goodness a Globe columnist printed her views two days before Rowe's appeared in print. Otherwise, all we'd have gotten was Rowe's personal reminiscences of the 1968 federal Liberal leadership convention.

Of course that was before Williams became a Progressive Conservative. Odd that Rowe didn't see fit to suggest Williams should revive the old PC party on a national basis. That's something well within the Premier's grasp and, ya know, there might even be a seat for Rowe to run in, if that's what he wanted to do.

It might be nice to see the two Rhodes amigos running as a tag-team of sorts.


Trudeau favours multi-lingualism over bilingualism

Justin Trudeau told an audience of 2,000 teachers that he did not favour bilingualism, favouring instead trilingualism and quadrilingualism.

He also compared separatists to schoolchildren, yelling to get attention.

Predictably, some people find this characterization of separatists upsetting.

-SRBP-

High flight

Conservative cabinet minister Jean-Pierre Blackburn spent almost $150,000 on aircraft charters, yet filed expense claims showing no airfares for these trips.

Mais, bien sur.

Blackburn has merely slipped the surly bonds of earthly accountability for expenses.
In fact, the majority of the flights on privately hired planes don't show up anywhere in Mr. Blackburn's public disclosure of ministerial travel and were only revealed through an Access to Information request by NDP researchers.

-SRBP-

05 May 2007

FP backgrounder on the local oil and gas industry

From the Financial Post's Claudia Cattaneo, a feature piece on the local oil and gas industry over a year after the Hebron failure.

Your humble e-scribbler is quoted in the piece.
Even as people leave the province in large numbers to make a living they can't find locally, they support his bashing of outside interests, whether its big oil companies or the federal government, because he stands up for Newfoundland. They buy into Mr. Williams' claim that the government negotiated a bad deal on Hibernia and now must ensure the government takes a fair cut from future projects.

Mr. Gibbons, who signed the Hibernia deal nearly 17 years ago in an environment of low oil prices and greater risk, said it was a huge leap for the province.

"It's the deal that gave us the industry that we have today," he said.

After a decade with Jacques Whitford, Mr. Gibbons retired yesterday, but his interest in a thriving offshore hasn't diminished.

"Please, get at the table and negotiate, and let's get on with the next projects," he pleaded.

"We are going to lose the skilled people that are required even for the construction part. Today, they are flying to Alberta and flying back home. But in five years' time, they may move the spouse and the kids will do their education there. Then they might never come back."
As an interesting addition to that comment, check out Greg Locke's most recent blog entry. Locke is a professional photographer and journalist - as well as an avowed Newfoundland nationalist - who recently left the province to take up a management job with a string of Alberta weeklies.

His reports from Alberta on the real attitudes of ex-pats living there may give a clue to why people like Gibbons are so concerned:
Of my conversations so far with the Newfoundlanders, I'm hearing the "politically correct" phrases about returning to but it's not said with much enthusiasm. No mourning or homesickness to be heard. It's lacking that convincing little flutter in the voice. Indeed, those who have a decent paying job here are looking pretty happy. The flags may be flying proud but they are not ready to sacrifice their livelihoods or future to return to Newfoundland .
Locke's also got some observations on the Alberta government's royalty regime and its tax policy for those in this province who harbour more than a few delusions about how this province supposedly has signed bad oil development deals in the past or how this province is treated unfairly compared to Alberta.

-30-

Telling fantasy from reality in the offshore

Premier Danny Williams is quoted by the Financial Post Saturday edition as saying that the provincial government is holding informal talks with the Hebron partners aimed at getting the project back on track.

Williams has made the same claim on several occasions since talks collapsed last April but there is no objective evidence the talks are occurring.

In the immediate aftermath of the collapse, Williams made a similar claim. His subsequent comments however, made it clear the operators had merely been contacting provincial officials to confirm the provincial position in light of the Premier's comments to news media. No talks took place.

Williams made the same claim to local news media recently, but as Offal News pointed out, no industry sources would confirm anything beyond routine contacts on unrelated matters.

It wouldn't be the first time Williams made a claim that turned out to be at odds with the facts. In 2004, Williams claimed to have the support of provincial premiers for his position
on Equalization offsets. No evidence to support the claim appeared and, in fact, the subsequent criticism both publicly and privately from other provinces - particularly Ontario's Dalton McGuinty - , suggest the original claim lacked foundation. A letter from McGuinty that Williams said was an endorsement of the position turned out to be little more than a routine letter that included general good wishes on talks between the federal government and the Williams administration.

Williams has also claimed that Prime Minister Stephen Harper has committed to a loan guarantee on the Lower Churchill. Harper has said nothing of the sort publicly. His written commitments - used by Williams in the current Equalization row - merely talk of a commitment to talks aimed at exploring possible support in the spirit of Hibernia.

The federal government initially provided loan guarantees to Hibernia but also invested directly in the project when one of the partners withdrew. As well, federal finance policy favours equity investment as opposed to loan guarantees.

According to the Post story, a Chevron spokesman "denied there are discussions or negotiations underway with the province."

A quick analysis of contending interests suggests there are no talks.

For a sitting Premier, facing criticism of his handling of the offshore in an election year, it bolsters his cause to claim that talks exist even if they are nothing more than rebuffed contacts initiated by the province.

For the industry, it would do no harm to confirm that there have been informal discussions but that obstacles remain.

Their continued denials of any talks suggest that they are simply stating the fact.Allowing the Premier to save face would be a simple and cost-free way of rebuilding a relationship that appears to have been damaged significantly in the wake of the Hebron collapse.

A sign of the bad blood between government and the operators came with the rejection by the province of the Hibernia South expansion. The province offered the public excuse that they rejected the application because it lacked crucial information. provincial officials glossed over the fact that they had failed to indicate they had any questions and took no action to find the information they sought, despite having the application in hand for the better part of a year.

In a related but unconfirmed story circulating in the local oil patch, senior officials of the province's Hydro corporation are said to have visited at least one of the Hebron operators last spring, after the talks collapsed, with a simple proposition: come back to the table, accept our position on Hebron and Hibernia South will proceed without a hitch.

If that story is true, it is a clear sign that talks ended in an atmosphere that can only be cleared with radical changes in position on both sides. If the story isn't true, its very existence suggests that feelings are running high and that the ill feeling on both sidesleft in the wake of the collapsed talks will take some time to disappate.

Obstacles do remain to Hebron talks, the same ones that existed previously. The provincial government continues to insist on a 4.9% equity position and has rejected any talk of investment tax credits or tax breaks. The provincial negotiating team is still led by Hydro's Ed Martin.

For the operators, the equity position remains a key problem especially so in light of the conflict of interest in having the future operating partner acting as the lead negotiator for the provincial treasury on taxes and royalties. To follow the Norwegian model of offshore management, as opposed to the Venezuelan or Nigerian one, that conflict of interest would definitely need to be addressed if talks could continue.

At least, the Andy Wells factor has been neutralized. Williams tried to install Andy Wells as head of the offshore regulatory board in a move that may have been aimed at stacking the deck in a manner more familiar in Venezuela or Nigeria than Norway. The related matter of fallow field legislation - which in Williams version appeared to be Venezuelan-style expropriation instead of Norwegain-style management - appears to be off the table entirely as well.

Those two elements would have given Williams his apparent preferred bargaining position: he holds all the options and the other party has no choice but comply. In the absence of that level of control of the situation, it is unlikely the provincial government would be eager to return to the bargaining table. The premier's rhetoric over the past year establishes his last position on hebron as his new minimum.

Since that exceeded what the companies were prepared to accept and in the absence of any legal means to force a deal on his own terms, it would appear highly unlikely there is any hope of getting hebron back on the rails.

That is until positions or players change.

-30-

Conoco drilling delayed in Laurentian until at least 2009

According to The Telegram, ConocoPhillips won't be drilling exploratory wells on its Laurentian basin properties until at least 2009 because of rig availability questions and problems in completing seismic surveys.

In addition to the global demand for deep water drilling rigs, the geology of the area is posing problems for seismic interpretation.
Seismic surveys are used to map what lies beneath the ocean floor. Waves of compressed air are shot toward the seabed, and the signal reflected back creates an image of rocks and pools of oil and gas that are found kilometres below the ocean floor.

In the case of the Laurentian surveys, the pulse bounced back multiple times and the images were unclear. What might have taken 10 months to evaluate took 18 months to clean up the images.

"The Laurentian Basin is an absolute frontier basin. There are no wells in the deepwater portion of that basin," said Hogg. "We are in our infancy in understanding the basin."
The Conoco land parcels are in water as much as 2,200 metres deep but only as shallow as 1100 metres. That puts them on par with the Orphan Basin and large portions of the Gulf of Mexico where the Jack 2 field was recently discovered. Even if commercial quantities of oil and gas are confirmed, the water depth involved would pose a challenge for current technology to exploit profitably.

Those practical challenges are one of the most potent arguments against any facile approach to land management such as fallow field that would demand development within as little as five or 10 years by a company or face expropriation. When it was originally discovered, Hebron was considered commercially non-viable since its heavy oil (circa API 21) and fractured structures posed significant problems for then-extant engineering and oil extraction ability. Only changes on the technical side coupled with changes in world oil demand made the project commercially viable some 20 years after it was discovered.

A Conoco spokesman also told the Telegram that
the company will continue to work with the province as it develops the royalty regime.

"That being said, it is important to us to have the royalty (regime) before we drill the well."
Premier Danny Williams told the Financial Post in an interview on Friday that the provincial government is working on a new oil and gas royalty regime. Key components of both will be a so-called "equity" position for the provincial government through its Hydro corporation.
Mr. Williams said the energy policy will require provincial equity stakes in both future oil and gas projects, but wouldn't reveal how much, other than it will be higher than the 4.9% negotiated for Hebron.

It will also include a natural gas royalty regime, which has also been expected for years, and cover environmental requirements and the electricity industry.

The gas regime has been completed and has been shared for feedback with Husky and ConocoPhillips Co., Mr. Williams said.
Unconfirmed reports put the equity demand at 10%. That could mean little to Husky, which is seeking to develop gas prospects on its White Rose project and which would be grandfathered through the equity provisions of the regime.

For companies like Conoco, however, such a demand, especially when the financial implications are still far from clear, could further delay exploration. Both Williams and his close associates have stated that the provincial government would pay for an equity position. They have yet to explain how the provincial government, supposedly labouring under an enormous debt burden, would find the hundreds of millions of dollars such a stake could cost. Nor have they stated how an equity position would provide any financial or other benefits to the province beyond the huge returns already received. Williams has consistently denigrated existing royalty regimes despite their delivering over 25% of the provincial government's own-source revenue.

if the province's royalty regime raises the cost of exploration and development beyond the company's profitability on a frontier field, Conoco's drilling program - now forecast for 2009 at the earliest - may well be pushed back further into the future.

-30-

04 May 2007

Williams "a bumptuous blowhard"

The National Post weighs in:
Even if Mr. Williams disagrees with all this, he is at the very least guilty of coming off as a bumptious blowhard. It is unusual enough for a provincial premier to campaign against a sitting federal government (most confine themselves to championing federal candidates from their own party within their province), but it is unprecedented for a premier to advocate nationally for the defeat of a government in Ottawa of his own party.

This is not a sign of how bad the Harper government has treated Newfoundland. Rather, Mr. Williams’ latest outrageous proposals are a sign that he has become a captive to his own bluster. He has gone to this well so often, that each dip must be bigger and splashier than they last, until now he has no credibility left.
And if that wasn't enough, there's Don Martin's take:
Of course, there's a wingnut factor to be factored into any Williams damage assessments.

This is, after all, the premier who yanked down Canadian flags in protest, howled at Paul Martin with identical vitriol and stormed out of his first First Ministers conference with little provocation.

Williams makes the point that Newfoundland is on the verge of achieving economic independence, an overdue prosperity from offshore oil that could be short-lived.
-30-

Williams' Toronto speech dissected

From Offal News.
Clearly the needs of the personal trumps the partisan and the public policy. This is amateur politics.

Sound familiar?

From a decade ago, a Canadian Press story on Brian Tobin's version of the Lower Churchill:

Labrador's hydroelectric project is fated to be a failure, says analyst

Monday, March 9, 1998
by Michelle MacAfee, Canadian Press

A new hydroelectric project in Labrador would be "economic craziness" for the Newfoundland and Quebec governments, as well as for Ottawa which is being asked to provide up to $2 billion, says a national energy watchdog.

"This deal has the makings of a major financial mistake," said Tom Adams of Energy Probe, a consumer and environmental lobby group.

"It will be generating high-cost power at a time when we are coming into a glut of low-cost power."

Newfoundland Premier Brian Tobin meets today with Quebec Premier Lucien Bouchard in this small Labrador town to outline how formal negotiations will proceed on a second power project on the Churchill River.

It's believed the negotiations will be framed around a $12-billion development that includes the construction of two dams and a $2-billion, 800-megawatt transmission line to the island portion of Newfoundland. Power would flow by 2007.

A source close to the project said the $12-billion plan will involve a large hydraulic generating station about three-fifths the size of Churchill Falls that will be built downriver closer to Goose Bay.

The source said two additional units will be built, increasing the station by about one-fifth, and some major water diversion dams will be built in Quebec to bring more water into Churchill Falls.

Even with few of the details announced, Adams says such a massive undertaking is simply not feasible given the current market and expectations for the future.

Small, local power stations throughout Quebec, Ontario and the northeastern United States would be able to produce power at about half the cost -- and with less risk of transmission problems -- of their Churchill competitor, Adams said from Toronto.

Newfoundland and Quebec are out of step with international power players, who are trying to reduce their exposure to financial risk, he added.

"They would have to cut their costs by about half to make this deal even start to appear attractive enough to be worth talking about."

Newfoundland Energy Minister Chuck Furey countered that two important external factors helped make this the perfect time for such a mammoth power project:

-- a hydroelectric project the size of the Lower Churchill would push the Canadian government as much as 20 per cent closer to meeting its international commitment to reduce greenhouse gases.

-- the American power market was recently deregulated, which is expected to make the industry more open.

"As you see a displacement of old forms of energy based on new-world realities, the new power entering the marketplace will be received in a very timely, very positive and very competitive way," said Furey.

At the heart of any new deal is the $2-billion transmission line. Among other things, the line would provide power to a nickel smelter expected to be built on the island by Inco.

Tobin has said he is seeking the federal government's help, and a source within the provincial government said today's announcement will include a commitment from Ottawa to at least formally explore the issue.

It could be a tough sell, however.

Some fear Newfoundland could be seen as getting more than its share of federal dollars, since it is also seeking continued aid for unemployed fishermen.

Added to that is a continued reluctance by government to invest in so-called megaprojects.

Adams said such an investment of federal tax dollars would be terrible and unnecessary because the island of Newfoundland has enough power sources without the underwater link.

"If the province was offered $2 billion for a transmission line or $1 billion for schools and hospitals, I'd take the $1 billion because it's worth more in cash than a transmission line," said Adams.

For Newfoundland, no economic study of a Lower Churchill deal would be complete without looking at the mistakes that were made negotiating the first project, located further upstream at Churchill Falls.

Under a deal signed in 1969 that did not include a price-escalation clause, Quebec continues to buy electricity at cheap prices and then sell it at a profit to the United States.

The issue has united Newfoundlanders in fierce patriotism as government after government tried and failed to renegotiate the deal.

Furey said this deal being negotiated must produce "unbalanced benefits" in favor of Newfoundland as compensation.

However, he added that both provincial economies will benefit from job creation and increased revenues.

Persona sold to Bragg

From the Nova Scotia Business Journal:

Bragg Communications Inc. and Persona Communications Corp. announced on Friday that a purchase and sale agreement has been signed which will result in Bragg Communications acquiring Persona.

With more than 260,000 customers, Persona provides communications services to customers throughout British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Québec and Newfoundland & Labrador.

Bragg Communications co-CEOs Dan McKeen and Lee Bragg expressed their enthusiasm in concluding this agreement. "This purchase represents an opportunity to significantly grow our business, to build upon our success as a telecommunications and entertainment company, and to work with the management and employees of Persona."

The transaction, according to the Friday press release, establishes Bragg Communications as the largest privately held cable and communications company in Canada, and the only cable provider operating systems in all 10 provinces.

The agreement to purchase the shares of Persona is subject to regulatory approval.

Persona is currently held by a consortium of private equity funds including HM Capital Partners, Birch Hill Equity Partners and CIBC Capital Partners. CIBC World Markets Inc. served as financial advisor to Persona.

Persona provides digital TV, hi-speed Internet and telecom services to residential and commercial customers in non-urban communities throughout British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Québec and Newfoundland & Labrador.

Financial terms of the agreement will not be disclosed.
The original release is here.

Newfoundlanders and Labradorians in need of self-esteem

It's not separation that we crave, but respect. Self-respect builds self-confidence, self-determination, and self-reliance, economically and socially.
Premier Danny Williams
speech to the Economic Club of Toronto
May 3, 2007


Apparently, Newfoundlanders and Labradorians are lacking self-respect.

To support the Premier's point of view, here is just a smattering of people who supposedly are seeking the ever illusive quality called self-esteem.

Debbie Hanlon, real estate entrepreneur


John Crosbie











Dr. Raymond Blake, historian, University of Saskatchewan