18 May 2007

Chevron to spend US$4.0 billion in Asia in '07

From the International Herald Tribune:
BANGKOK, Thailand: Chevron Corp. will invest about US$4 billion in Asia this year for petroleum exploration and production, a company executive said Friday.

"The company sees Asia as a very attractive place for investment for future growth," Steve Green, managing director of Chevron Asia South Ltd., told Dow Jones Newswires in an interview.
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Post columnist slags Pipeline Canada

From Terence Corcoran's column in the Friday Post:

Having just sold off Petro-Canada, ending that particularly disastrous episode in national energy history, the Harper Conservatives are floating the idea of taking control of a new national project, Pipeline-Canada. As a Crown corporation, Pipeline- Canada would contract out construction of the $16.2-billion project to Trans-Canada Pipeline.

If this were to happen, rest assured that it would not really be an energy policy. It would be, above all, a native buy-off policy, a job-creation policy, a make-work program and a political strategy to secure votes and seats in Parliament.

But as an energy policy, the benefits are far from obvious. A government-funded pipeline megaproject would do nothing to help establish Canada as an "Energy Superpower." But it could set Canada up as an Energy Superloser. With a $16-billion construction cost, the latest estimate, it poses a monumental risk to the government.

Prediction: The National Post won't like the Newfoundland and Labrador energy plan whenever it is released, for many of the same reasons given in Corcoran's column.

The plan will likely call for the same high level of government intervention in energy projects Corcoran criticises in the Mackenzie pipeline story.

Even though there is no reason to believe it, some people will argue that the Post is part of a national plot to denounce and degrade the Newfoundland nation.

Other people will roll their eyes up in their heads at the foolishness of the conspiracy conclusion.

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Leo 2s to cost $1.3 billion

New Leopard 2 tanks will cost the Government of Canada $1.3 billion for acquisition and lifecycle costs over 20 years according to defence minister Gordon O'Connor.

O'Connor revealed the new cost - double the amount previously announced - in testimony before a House of Commons committee on Thursday evening.

No reason has been given by the minister or his department for breaking with past practice and not announcing the total cost for the new acquisition. In previous purchases, purchase costs as well as lifecycle costs were provided at the same time.

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Feds to buy into Mackenzie pipeline

The Government of Canada may buy an interest in the stalled Mackenzie Valley pipeline project in an effort to restart the venture, the National Post is reporting.
Oil companies backing the project said in March that the 1,222-kilometre pipeline linking gas fields in the Mackenzie Delta to Alberta's natural gas pipeline grid would cost $16.2-billion, up from $7.5-billion only two years ago, thanks to inflationary pressures that have beset energy projects around the world.

The consortium then asked Ottawa for huge tax concessions, but at a May 2 meeting in Calgary [Indian affairs and northern development minister Jim] Prentice slammed the door on the idea of subsidizing the oil companies. Imperial then said it would shut down the project, sources said.

Since then, Ottawa has not only resurrected a proposal to be a partner in the project, but is exploring taking control away from Imperial. The massive venture would provide a new source of natural gas for North America and be a springboard for development of the North. It would also open the prospective frontier to gas exploration.

Under the plan under consideration, Ottawa would buy out Imperial and its partners, Houston-based ConocoPhillips and international conglomerate Royal Dutch Shell PLC, by reimbursing them for costs already incurred on the project plus interest.

Imperial, Conoco and Shell are now formulating a plan to let the government into the project. A deal is expected to take several months to be finalized, sources said.
As Bond Papers noted last October in an article on a possible Lower Churchill loan guarantee, the federal government favours taking equity in projects rather than providing loan guarantees. Specifically, the October article linked to a Globe and Mail story on the possibility of the feds taking equity in the pipeline project.

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Another view of Alberta

Greg Locke has an interesting post on the experience of moving to Alberta especially when it comes to Medicare coverage and worker's comp.

This looks like just the snippet of a bigger piece, or at least the start of something that should be bigger.
Here is something Newfoundland's migrant workers are not told about in the glowing upbeat presentations in hotel ballrooms used to sell them on going to work in Alberta. Particularly on industrial job sites where risk of injury is higher than other jobs and just which health care system covers you in case of illness or injury.

First you had better figure out if Newfoundland’s MCP covers you while working in Alberta or if Alberta resident’s provincial health care plan is in play for your particular situation. If you are not an Alberta resident, you may not be covered. Also, when and does your employers additional health care benefits kick in after you start work. A lot of the answers to these questions will depend on whether you are an Alberta resident or a “commuter” flying in to work in Alberta but still a resident of Newfoundland.
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17 May 2007

Government promises accounting in cancer scandal

Premier Danny Williams said Thursday his administration had a "moral responsibility" to investigate whether patient health was compromised in the way a regional health authority in the province responded to news that certain breast cancer screening tests had produced incorrect results.

Upwards of 300 women were steered away from access to the drug Temoxafen, based on the results of faulty hormone receptor tests.

Former health minister Tom Osborne, now the province's justice minister, admitted he was briefed on the scope of the problem in December 2006.

At the time, health authorities only publicly disclosed changes in treatment to over a hundred women. Information that tests were incorrect for almost three times that number of women was not made public until this week, as a result of inquires for lawyers representing some of the women.

CBC reported Thursday that:
...Health Minister Ross Wiseman told the legislature Thursday that Eastern Health — which is largely funded by government, but operates at arm's length — was aware of the inaccurate test results more than a year ago.

However, he said, government officials were not notified until last August, and that the then health minister was not personally briefed until three months after that, in late November.

Health Minister Ross Wiseman said Eastern Health has known for more than a year about the error rate of hormone receptor testing.Health Minister Ross Wiseman said Eastern Health has known for more than a year about the error rate of hormone receptor testing.
(CBC)

Court documents reported earlier this week by CBC News showed an error rate of 42 per cent in a large set of samples, several times higher than a public estimates.

Wiseman said Eastern Health still may not know what went wrong with hormone receptor tests done between 1997 and 2005.
In the House of Assembly, Wiseman said that the health authority became away of a problem with testing in May 2005 and began a review of tests and procedures.

There was no explanation for the delays in briefing the health minister in 2006 or why the provincial health department concurred with legal advice that appears to have recommended partial disclosure of information.

The premier told the legislature today that his administration would conduct a thorough review of the matter bearing in mind the issues of liability and confidentiality.

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Ahhh, but what if...

Funny how everyone is in a high dudgeon over Equalization.

Well, not e-v-e-r-y-o-n-e, as was painfully obvious at the Rally for Danny.

Despite the claims of the rally organizers, it looks like about 1500 people showed up on a fine and glorious Friday. None too impressive.

[Photo removed by request] For those who don't know, that was the non-partisan rally organized by DW's political supporters and attended by...well, ...his political supporters, like this gaggle of political staffers (left). That's the Premier's parliamentary assistant standing there in shades, likely keeping an eye on his promotion to cabinet.

Paul Oram's boss worked the crowd like it was a Tory rally and at an appropriate moment took a spot behind the podium to deliver what was likely seen by most to be the keynote. They even chanted "Danny! Danny! Danny"!

The whole thing featured a bunch of speakers, culminating in a few politicos, but the high point was surely DW himself, as would be fitting at a Rally for Danny.

There was Steve Kent, on behalf of municipalities in the province, but oddly enough an aspiring DW candidate, as Bond revealed last January. He'll formally announce tomorrow but Bond isn't expecting a thank you for saving everyone the six months of suspense.

There was Kevin Noble, a fine local actor who has lately taken to calling every VOCM talk show on the go to attack anyone saying anything about DW that might look like criticism. No small irony Noble spent a chunk of his professional time playing Joe Smallwood.

Noble could parlay the whole thing into a kind of eerie one man show in which he plays both premiers simultaneously. Challenge people to guess which one said what.

But I digress.

Then there was a police officer speaking on behalf of police officers.

Yes, at a political rally.

Odd that no one bothered to read RNC Act and regulations.

And there was The-Only-Locally-Owned-Newspaper editor who tried to out-speechify the best political speechifiers. He was evidently taking a break from fearlessly tracking down all the stuff that conforms to his political biases, at least when it comes to the crowd Up-a-long, to give speech which confirmed once again that he is a master at saying one thing and doing another:

"I'm here to say it's time for Newfoundland and Labrador to grow up."

Speak for yourself, there buddy. The rest of us are wondering why the nationalists seem to project personal shortcomings, like immaturity or a lack of self-esteem, onto an entire population.

They all shared the view of the guy singing a song in praise of the Fearless Leader and encouraging him to keep up the fight against the evil enemy of the moment.

Anyway...

All of that is just a way of reminding regular Bond Papers readers that the problems with Harper Equalization problems were well known.

And they were known some time ago.

Well known to everyone, it would seem except Fearless Leader who, during the last federal election, was supporting the guy he has now turned on. The year before that he was trashing Harper - carrying an even better version of the later promise - and sucking on to Paul Martin.

But by 2006, there was this piece for example, that noted the vagueness of the 2005/06 version of Harper's commitment.

Then there was this one that predicted a nasty Equalization fight was on the way.

In March, 2006 - a mere two months after Canada's New Crowd took office - the rest of the world knew what Danny Williams apparently still didn't realize in October. [or did he?]

Then there was the little piece on bullshit, which is the main fuel for most of the Canadian political system apparently.

And even in this seemingly unrelated piece, there is evidence of what Stephen Harper was proposing and how it would benefit the provincial government, at least in comparison to the system the Premier himself proposed originally.

As yes, if only more people read Bond Papers.

or just grew up.


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But seriously, folks

This is a very good announcement.

The dairy industry is one of the real bright spots in our provincial agricultral industry and it goes largely unnoticed by most of us.

Somehow, though, I just couldn't help thinking of this old Monty Python sketch every time I heard the news story today.

Real grassroots versus astroturf

Doesn't matter where you stand on the Equalization issue, this petition is in the spirit of the Fair Deal campaign mounted in 2004/05.

It looks like a genuine grassroots campaign and there's no sign it isn't genuine. The thing already has the better part of 250 signatures.

That's what sets it apart from astroturf.

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16 May 2007

CVRD eyes IOC parent

From Australia, comes a report that Brazillian miner CVRD is sizing up Rio Tinto as a possible acquisition.

CVRD operates Voisey's Bay through it's Inco subsidiary.

Rio Tinto operates an iron ore mine in western Labrador through it's subsidiary, Iron Ore Company of Canada.

A Reuters account can be found here .
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Cat Fight, the new series

Conservative member of parliament Fabian Manning, left, and Paul Oram, parliamentary assistant to Premier Danny Williams, spent a few minutes on Tuesday night bashing each other in public, courtesy of VOCM's Night Line talk show.

Oram, right, started the row by calling the show to slag Manning for supporting the federal government's budget. Oram claimed that, by way of a gigantic contrast, Oram had voted for a controversial fisheries measure because he was told it was in the best interests of the province. [Now the wording he used was curious enough in itself, but that's another story.]

While claiming purest motives for himself, Oram could not grant the same courtesy to Manning; after all, the guy who holds the keys to Oram's future as a cabinet minister had already declared Manning an un-person. A senior member of Williams' staff reputedly attended the caucus meeting that punted Manning to the opposition benches.

Manning would not be outdone by the likes of Oram. So he called the show from Ottawa to give a spirited defense of himself and his reasons for supporting the budget measure. Not surprisingly it had something to do with best interests of the province.

At some point, Manning also noted that he and Oram had discussed said controversial fisheries initiative back in the days before Manning's image was airbrushed out of every photo of provincial Tories.

Da byes were apparently gnoshing at a local eatery ironically called "My brother's place" when Oram allegedly declared he would cross the floor before he would support the fisheries package.
[Photo removed by request] Of course, Oram didn't cross the floor. He backed the deal to the hilt. By-the-by, in the photo at left that's Oram in the shades and sans 'stache along with a bunch of what appears to be Tory political staffers.

The event was the the supposedly non-partisan Rally for Danny last week in which the rhetoric flowed thick and heavy even if the crowd was thin and the results were light to non-existent.

While Manning was on the air, Oram called to refute Manning's version of events. Smart producer and host put the two together and let them hammer away much to the delight of their audience.

It was a truly spectacular bout of "You did. I din't."

Now the real point isn't what Oram or Manning did back then, although frankly, Manning has nothing to gain by telling a whopper of a fib.

Neither side can likely prove his version of events.

But that isn't the point.

People should notice that the current crusade against the federal Conservatives has opened up deep divisions in the local Connie/PC camp. There are plenty of close friends caught up in the divide, just as two years ago there were some deep divisions among Liberals.

The Tory and Connie cleavages might be bigger though since at no point in the Liberal case did one crowd call for the public lynching of the other. Premier Danny Williams wants to see every Conservative in the province defeated at the next election. Heck, in the process, DW's even turned on a guy he once supported to be provincial Tory leader and Premier.

Oram and Manning's pissing match could be just the tip of the proverbial iceberg. More blood may well flow yet before the whole thing is settled.

Meanwhile, the federal Grits are quietly going about their business.

And the Dippers?

Likely they are doing a very fine impression of Jon Lovitz from The Wedding Singer.

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Protecting domestic T & A

From Canadian Press:
The Conservative government is set to unveil new legislation aimed at keeping foreign strippers out of Canada.
Talk about a government that has already exhausted its agenda.

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Just say no

It's not on line but this story appeared in today's Telegram.

It appears here thanks to someone with better typing skills than your humble e-scribbler.

Analyses remain secret; Province won't release examination of system

by Rob Antle

It's been an argument fought largely without the help of any hard numbers or firm facts. And the provincial government is doing its part to ensure the situation stays that way.

The Williams administration confirmed this week it won't make public any of its analyses of changes to the federal equalization system.

Requested data

The Telegram requested the data a month ago under provincial access-to-information laws.

The province says doing so would violate both cabinet confidences, and a portion of the law dealing with the financial and economic interests of a public body.

A spokeswoman for Premier Danny Williams steered questions to the provincial Department of Finance, which denied the request.

Williams has been at war with Ottawa since the federal budget was tabled March 19.

The Harper government sidestepped a key election promise on equalization, instituting a cap on benefits.

Williams was apoplectic, commissioning a nationwide advertising campaign condemning the prime minister.

The feds, meanwhile, insist the province can stay in the old equalization system and retain the uncapped Atlantic Accord.

No hard numbers

Neither side has tabled any hard numbers to back up their respective opinions about the benefits of the new system versus the old.

Earlier this month, Ottawa told The Telegram it would require 1,056.67 hours just to prepare to release 31,700 pages of documents analysing the potential impact of the new system on Newfoundland and Labrador.

The federal Finance Department said it would take another 69 hours just to find the information. Total bill: $17,500.

Province just said no

The province, meanwhile, shut the door entirely.

Last month, Williams skated around three separate questions from reporters about whether he would release provincial analyses.

"It depends on how far we can go," he said April 18.

Equalization is fiendishly complicated, with factors as diverse as the price of oil, the value of the Canadian dollar and the economic performance of every province potentially shifting benefit levels.

Projections released

To date, the only person who has publicly released any projections of the new system's impact is Memorial University economist Wade Locke.

Locke first calculated that the new system could provide a boon of $5.6 billion to the province.

But a new set of parameters - based on changes in federal budget implementation laws - turned that boon into a bust. Locke's revised analysis showed the new system would provide $1 billion less than the status quo over 12 years.

The MUN economist has urged the feds and the province to make public their own projections.

Neither side has expressed much interest in doing so.

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Fun and games with the Premiers

The Prime Minister is finally getting around to meeting with the Premiers.

With the recent federal budget, it should be an interesting affair.

Maybe that's why the Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador has been absent from the House of Assembly so much.

He's getting ready for the big showdown, expected on June 2.

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15 May 2007

Back to the future: an overview of Equalization

Lost in most of the current kerfuffle on Equalization is any understanding of what the federal transfer program does or how it evolved.

Thomas Courchene contributed a simple historical summary of the program to Policy Options in March. The following extract suggests that the current Equalization approach is very similar to the one introduced in 1962:
At this juncture, it is important to recognize that equalization has played another key role in the evolution of our federation. Over the years the federal government transferred progressively larger shares of the PIT [federal personal income tax] and CIT [federal corporate income tax] to the provinces, which made Canada one of the most tax-decentralized federations in the world. Arguably this tax decentralization would not have been politically acceptable to the "have-not" provinces were it not for the existence of equalization. In this sense, equalization also benefits the rich
provinces, since it allows them to reap the benefits of their superior tax bases.

In the 1962 quinquennial revision of the tax arrangements, the share of PIT entering the equalization formula was increased to 16 percent (with an interim increase to 13 percent in 1958). For present purposes, however, the importance of the 1962 revisions is that natural resources entered the formula for the first time, thereby beginning a complex and volatile relationship that has influenced the evolution of Canadian federalism well beyond the fiscal arena. The concern at issue in this time frame was that resource-rich Alberta was receiving equalization.

To prevent this, the formula was expanded to include resource revenues — 50 percent of the three-year average of provincial resource revenues would now be eligible for equalization. While this would exclude Alberta from receiving equalization, it would have substantially increased the total level of equalization. To temper this expansion the equalization standard was reduced from the TTPS [top-two-province standard] to a national-average standard (NAS).

This modification was short-lived. Following up on its 1963 election platform, the new Pearson government restored the TTPS standard and removed resource revenues from the formula, replacing them with the "resource-revenue override"; henceforth, 50 percent of the resource revenues accruing to a province would be deducted from that province’s equalization entitlement. The return to the top-two-province standard meant that Ontario was again the only "have" province, but the resource revenue override precluded Alberta and BC from receiving equalization.
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Polling in public policy

From David Herle, a provocative discussion of the role played by public opinion research in modern politics and government.

As the blurb from this month's Policy Options puts it:
"The role public opinion research plays in guiding governmental communications is often dismissed as partisan and not necessarily in the public interest," writes David Herle, who begs to differ. As the former pollster to the federal finance ministry in the 1990s, Herle’s polls and focus groups shaped support for balancing the budget and creating the fiscal dividend. Other policies, he writes, "can be sacrificed because (Ottawa) couldn’t talk about them to Canadians in a way that made sense to them." He also identifies five rules of current Canadian public opinion: Canadian social values, transparent governance, activism rather than retrenchment in government, and the enduring regionalism and evolving views of the Canadian federation.
Herle has a striking observation on how Canadians view the separation of powers between federal and provincial governments. In light of recent musings by local nationalists, Herle's assessment might give a clue as to why the tone of the provincial government's most recent battle with the federal government is going over like a lead balloon:
Rule 5 — Views of the federation are evolving. The fight between "a strong central government," on one side, and "a community of communities," on the other side, is over, and both sides won.

Most Canadians have settled on a division of labour between levels of government that is based on what they see as the appropriate roles and competencies.

Program delivery is seen as being best done by provincial or even local governments. They are seen as being better able to manage programs and are thought to have a better sense of what the actual needs are, province by province, community by community.

The cities agenda is coming up into the national agenda for a reason. However, that does not mean that people want or will accept a balkanized Canada. They see it as completely appropriate for the federal government to fund programs in areas of provincial jurisdiction — in fact, most of the things people really care about, such as health care, education, early childhood education and the environment, are outside federal jurisdiction. They would not stand for a federal government that refused to help in those areas. In addition, they want the federal government to demand national principles and consistent approaches and applications.

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SK should pick friends carefully: Hirsch

Todd Hirsch, a former chief economist with the Canada West Foundation warns Saskatchewan is sending the wrong message by siding with Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador over Equalization. His column appears in the current issue of Policy Options.

But the danger of Saskatchewan joining as brothers-in-arms with Newfoundland and Nova Scotia is that it conveys the message that Saskatchewan’s economy is in trouble. Nothing could be farther from the truth.

The unemployment rate in Newfoundland is above 14 percent. In Saskatchewan, it is under 4 percent — behind only Alberta’s as the lowest unemployment rate in the country. Saskatchewan’s economy has grown consistently at or above the national rate of real growth, and is likely to be the second- or third-fastest-growing province in 2007. Strong energy prices, rising real estate values, a burgeoning mining sector and a world-class hightech research sector are restoring business confidence. Even agriculture is doing reasonably well this spring.

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Budget accuracy: NL consistently strong results

One of the great unfacts that has crept into political dialogue in Newfoundland and Labrador is that fiscal accountability and sound management suddenly arrived in October 2003.

This report by the CD How Institute shows that over the past 10 years, the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador has been consistently accurate in its budget forecasting. The province showed a mean variation in spending changes off just 0.99%, ranking second in accuracy to Quebec.

Some of the biggest variation in forecasting revenues has been in the past two years - FY2005 and FY 2006 - with variations of 5.8% and 15% respectively.

Prior to that the largest variation was 1997-98 when the provincial budget underestimated revenues by slightly more than 10%, and 1998-99 when the provincial governments revenue actually declined. The difference between forecast and actual was -6.32%.

According to the Howe study, the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador is forecasting a 10% growth in spending in FY 2007. That's double the growth in the federal budget and five times the growth in the Ontario government.

Spending growth of 10% is also more than two and a half times the projected real growth in gross domestic product, according to a recent report by Scotia Economics.

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There is a conspiracy

Expect the local nationalists to be up-in-arms about these two announcements, both of which are surely evidence of the great conspiracy to favour Nova Scotia over Newfoundland and Labrador.

The first is ecclesiastical, but they are all mainlanders under their vestments, obviously.

The second is yet more federal pork for Halifax.

Never mind that the Port of Halifax has a major problem with smuggling.

That anti-smuggling job should be in Buchans.

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Scotia Economics projects top to bottom of pack for NL

Scotia Economics joins all the other forecasters in projecting that Newfoundland and Labrador will lead the country in economic growth in 2007.

Like everyone else, Scotia also projects the province's economy will trail the country in2008.

The update report - released on May 3 - turned up on vocm.com today.

The original report, released in March, was covered by Bond Papers at the time.

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