Fun with pictures, some more

Here's a better Lorraine Michael picture to use. From the NDP campaign website. Keep the entries coming. There's nothing to win but recognition for your bizarre sense of humour.

Remember: Just photoshop if you want to, or preferably just give us a caption. And keep it within the bounds of taste.

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Dicks apologizes, promises to repay

Paul Dicks, the man whose expenses caught the attention of former Auditor General Beth Marshall seven years ago, today apologized for what he described as lapses in judgment.  Dicks promised to repay the taxpayer for expenses claimed for wine and art purchases.

For her part, Marshall turned a blind eye to hundreds of thousands in inappropriate spending in her pursuit of Dicks.

In a recent interview, Marshall said she found nothing inappropriate in members of the legislature handing out public money as gifts to constituents and donations to groups and individuals who were never publicly identified.

Marshall's successor found that the gifts and donations often duplicated existing government department programs, although the money handed out through the House of Assembly was entirely at the discretion of the politician involved.

Elected in 2003, Marshall handed out 34% of her constituency allowance as gifts and donations.  The allowance was intended to cover other things, instead, although members of the legislature routinely spent the money in a manner Marshall's successor and a public inquiry deemed inappropriate.

This allowance is for the payment of expenditures incurred in the performance of constituency business and may cover such items as office rental, equipment, supplies, secretarial and other support services, information material such as newspapers, advertising, purchase of flags, pins, etc..

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The Top Five most irresponsible comments uttered by a political leader in Newfoundland and Labrador

It'll take a while to dig into the files for some of the geriatric whoppers in local political history, but the past four years have been replete with irresponsible  - in some cases downright frightening - political comments from at least one political leader in the province:

1.  The hands down winner: Taking away free speech in the House of Assembly.  Joe Smallwood may have brought in the anti-IWA legislation but not a single political leader in Newfoundland and Labrador history ever said it would a good idea to stamp out free speech in the legislature.

2.  Close second: The threats to sue people exercising their right of free speech, a threat that included falsely attributing motives to the people he threatened.

3.  Par for the course:  Repeated, unfounded personal attacks, all of which the leader in question had to withdraw.

4.  This mill will not close on my watch. A quote so much ingrained now that people don't even need a reference to it. And before someone leaps in here, let's recall it is fundamentally irresponsible to make a commitment you just can't guarantee you'll be able to keep.  Like saying no more secret deals and no more give-aways. oh wait.  Those last two are within a leader's power to keep.

5.  Labrador:  the minute land.  Rationalizing why he left his lone backbencher from Labrador out of his first cabinet, the man who set the new standard for irresponsible political commentary said this whopper:

"You can't have it both ways," he said. "If you're going to cut the cabinet back then obviously certain portions of the province, minute portions of the province, can be left out." — Danny Williams, Canadian Press, November 7, 2003

There's a reason the Tories like to keep erasing their online record.

And why some people regularly archive the utterances.

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Told ya

Weather forecasting in Gander.

Big political issue a couple of years ago.

Bond questioned the motivation of the people behind it.

Turns out we were right:  it was about pork.

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The advance polls

The top 15 districts in the advance poll, shown as a percentage of eligible voters who turned out in each district.

 

District	Percent advance (07)	Percent advance (03)
Signal Hill – Quidi Vidi	4.9%	2.5%
Carbonear – Harbour Grace	4.0%	7.2%
Port de Grave	3.3%	4.7%
Exploits	3.3%	2.7%
Lake Melville	3.2%	2.7%
Humber Valley	3.2%	4.1%
St. John’s East	3.2%	2.5%
Torngat Mountains	2.9%	2.6%
St. John’s West	2.9%	3.6%
St. John’s South	2.8%	2.3%
Gander	2.7%	3.6%
Topsail	2.7%	2.9%
Cartwright – L’Anse au Clair	2.7%	2.1%
Labrador West	2.7%	2.8%
Mount Pearl North	2.6%	2.9%

What does it mean?

Well, your guess is as good as any.

One thing seems obvious, though and that is that the special ballot process likely hasn't replaced the advance poll turn-out.

Special ballots existed in 2003 and all parties used them aggressively. The advance poll turn out in this election was down 31% from the last time.

That actually reverses dramatically the trend from the previous two elections, in 1999 and 2003, where the advance poll turn out climbed each time.

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The smell of desperation

Danny Williams came within a hair of promising a cabinet seat for Patty Pottle if the voters in Torngat Mountains would elect her as the MHA.

That's about as pathetic a gamble as it gets; there really is no other word for it.

Normally, that sort of thing is the hint dropped by desperate candidates trying to hang on to a seat. Normally, when a candidate resorts to spreading that rumour - always denied by the Leader for a whole bunch of reasons - it's a sign that all hope has gone.

Now when the party leader who is the Premier starts running around openly promising he'll pretty much surely plunk Patty in a cabinet seat, you can bet two things:

1. He's reasonably sure his current Labrador cabinet minister is toast.

2. he's desperate to have a seat on the mainland that he is prepared to promise anything to get it.

Might be a clue to voters everywhere.

If you want Danny Williams' attention: elect an Opposition MHA.

But seriously, it is long since past due for political reporters to stop spreading the campaign executive jet spin.

Wipe the Kool-Aid from your lips. brush the salmon flecks and cheesecake crumbs from your lapels.

Put the Premier's run through Labrador in perspective. It isn't about taking seats away from anyone.

It's all about desperately avoiding losing the two seats in Labrador the Premier's already got.

The run is Torngat is actually beyond desperate.

It's pathetic.

As pathetic as another Premier from another party running around claiming that Kilbride and Ferryland were going red.

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Mark Critch: deadly

Mark Critch's two-minute send up of Danny Williams will either:

1. Make lots of people laugh;

2. Incite some loons to follow a fatwah against Critch who will now be regarded as a traitor and heretic; or,

3. 1 + 2.

Audio available courtesy of the CBC campaign blog.

Video available at the 22 minutes site.

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Campaign fun

Simple enough.

Take the pictures below, and/or add a funny caption.

Photoshop them (within the bounds of good taste), e-mail your submission to bondpapers at hotmail dot com and we'll post them.

"On a go forward basic, quite frankly, I'll be working to get the partridgeberry muffin back on the menu at every Tim Horton's in the Federation."

"Now when I blink my eyes, the election will be over and the Liberals will be back in government. It's a trick I learned from Jeannie."

"I did kick his butt, didn't I?"

[Photos; shamelessly taken from the CBC campaign blog, Campaign Trail]

The Galahad List

Of all the MHAs who served in the House of Assembly after 1989, only six - that's right, a mere 6 - fell into the category of having made no donations, submitted no double-bills, bought no booze outside of meals, and made no personal purchases on public funds. There were others who had negligible amounts of donations or double-billings, but the following six stand out for their relative purity.

Their chastity - the other distinguishing virtue of Sir Galahad - is a matter on which we offer no opinion.

For the record, the six are (alphabetically) :

Charlie Brett

Felix Collins

Shannie Duff

Rex Gibbons

Barry Hynes

Ed Roberts

Two of the six are running in the current general election (indicated in bold).

Should be interesting given that Gibbon's Progressive Conservative opponent made another list from the AG's report.

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Leader's Tour Logic: update

Grit leader Gerry Reid is heading along the province's south coast in an effort to shore up support in two districts currently held by the Liberals.

Meanwhile, Danny Williams is headed back to Labrador for a whirlwind through all four districts. This is the second trip to Labrador. The Tory incumbents need shoring up in western and central Labrador and there is a race in Torngat Mountains.

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A few questions that likely won't get answered

Political party election platforms have become less about a firm set of commitments as about a set of general ideas that might be implemented, depending on what happens.  In some cases, they are just window dressing.

Working from the premise that platforms actually mean something, there are a few interesting bits of the progressive Conservative platform that are worth pondering:

1.  If the commitment is based on a false premise do you still mean it? 

demand that the Government of Canada situate more federal offices and jobs in Newfoundland and Labrador, which has fewer per capita than any other province

Newfoundland and Labrador actually has more jobs per capita than all but three provinces.

2. And what about the National War Memorial between Water and Duckworth Streets?

work with the Royal Canadian Legion and military families to establish an appropriate memorial in Newfoundland and Labrador to honour our soldiers who have served and sacrificed their lives in the Afghanistan mission

3. So are you saying the provincial government doesn't manage our collective wealth now?

put in place a plan to enable Newfoundland and Labrador to develop the capacity to manage our own wealth within a decade, in coordination with Memorial University, College of the North Atlantic and the Newfoundland and Labrador investment management community

Just what the heck does this mean? 

4.  So what happened to a debt reduction strategy, in light of four years of debt growth?

further develop our debt management strategy to continue to eliminate the debt and refinance existing debt with competitive rates

5.  But is there an amalgamation strategy?

maintain the commitment that there will be no forced amalgamation of municipalities but continue to work with municipalities on initiatives to share services regionally

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More fun with signs

Yes, there's been plenty of fun with campaign signs.

Some people have been tearing them down.  That's the sport in Mount Pearl. Others have been pointing out the missing bits on some, like Beth Marshall's lack of a Team Danny mention. Turns out those were recycled signs from the last campaign, just like the Tom Osborne "member" ones.

Well, here's brand spanking new sign, complete with the strong, proud, determined graphic that is missing any reference to Team Danny as well.

Of course, it would be hard to get it in there, what with all the references to the glorious things John Hickey has done for Lake Melville in just four short years.

But surely, they could have found a spot to poke in the graphic showing that  Hickey is a proud member of the Danny Williams Team.

On another level entirely though look at it this way:

Hickey is focusing on the cash flowing to his district,  in the fine old tradition of local politics in this province.

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Hilary and Janice and Danny

Hilary Clinton wants to give every child born in America $5,000.

Danny Williams thinks this is proof he is on the right track with his $1,000 bootie call.

She isn't and therefore, he isn't.

The $5,000 Hilary is talking about is actually part of a larger Democratic Party initiative aimed at health care reform and promoting education.

It is not intended - as the Bootie Call clearly is - as an incentive to parents to crank out more offspring.

The Democratic Party initiative very clearly establishes that the money will be placed in a trust and will be accessible for two specific purposes:  college tuition or buying a first home.

It is not intended - as the Bootie Call clearly is - as an incentive to parents to crank out more children.

How bad an idea is the Bootie call?  Well, consider that most men and women in the province have already dismissed the idea based on two simple premises:

1.  It doesn't even begin to cover the costs of raising a child, including education costs; and,

2.  Everywhere it has been tried it has turned out to be hugely expensive and at the same time hugely  ineffective in increasing the birth rate.

The Bootie Call is such a bad idea that even columnist Janice Wells had to morph the whole thing into a discussion of the virtues of cloth diapers before she could make it into something vaguely workable.

This is no mean feat.  Wells is a former Tory candidate and has been known to monger a few nationalist myths in her time of public comment especially since Williams was sworn in as Premier.  For her to cast some doubts on the idea is pretty significant, even if she has to go through a few tortures to salvage the concept.

All of this leads inevitably back to the starting point of the Bootie Call discussion and the admission Danny Williams made the day he announced the concept:  it hasn`t been thought through.  That`s painfully evident and it grows more painfully obvious when Williams himself and his supporters - like Janice Wells - have to invent reasons to give it some consideration.

If Danny and Janice really want to do something for our future generations, maybe they wouldn`t be trying to come up with lame ex post facto rationalizations for someone`s brain farts.

They`d be doing the planning Williams likes to talk about in his campaign ads. Then they`d turn the plans into action to deal with things like the growing debt load our children will face, a debt load that is likely to made worse by the inevitably burgeoning cost of the Bootie Call.

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The Open Cheque-book Government

Danny Williams recently accused Gerry Reid of planning an open cheque-book government.

For the record, here is the public sector debt since 2003, as contained in the provincial estimates for 2007.

Table 1: Public Sector Debt FY 2003 - FY 2007(f)

Source: Dept of Finance, Budget 2007, millions of CDN$

	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007f
Direct	6692.7	6581.5	7244.0	7069.5	7306.5
Crown	2404.1	2885.8	2657.4	2660.4	2666.9
Total*	8007.1	8345.2	8644.4	8355.6	8496.4

* Total is Direct and Crown debt, less sinking funds

Since 2003, the total public debt has increased by $489.3 million. Direct debt increased by $612.9 million. This continued the trend for the previous four years.

In the same time, the provincial governments net expenditure (capital and current) rose by 35% ($1.307 billion) from $3.674 billion to $4.981 billion.

Gross expenditure (capital and current) rose 30% from $4.261 billion in FY 2003 to $5.560 billion in FY 2007.

This is significantly beyond the annual rate of inflation for the province, which averaged 2.275% between 2003 and 2006.

At a speaking engagement in Corner Brook:

Williams ridiculed Reid’s business sense, comparing his understanding of the oil industry to the popular U.S. TV show, “The Beverly Hillbillies.”

“This is not Jed Clampett, Gerry. This is big business.”

Funny thing about that attempted slur is that Jed Clampett was actually a wily, sensible and conservative gentleman.

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What did Frank Moores call it?

From the front page of the Saturday Telegram, not available online but brought to you courtesy of the 10,000 monkeys that are kept chained to their IBM Selectrics banging away at transcribing stuff, a tale of the continued practice of having government members of the legislature handing out cheques for public money.

According to the Auditor General's report, Sheila Osborne was in the Top Ten public money givers, as a percentage of allowance. Osborne came in at eighth place, with 26% of her allowance as gifts. Osborne's son Tom - the province's justice minister - came in ahead of his mom, in sixth place. Tom's uncle, Bob Ridgley - Sheila's brother - came in fourth, handing out more than 38% of his constituency allowance as gifts.

As reported here earlier, the Tories have managed to find a way of doling out public money even though Chief Justice Green condemned the practice in no uncertain terms.

Tory MHAs delivering cheques for government

Handover of money appears to conflict with Green Report

Rob Antle; Terry Roberts

Two Tory MHAs recently delivered cheques to good causes on behalf of the government, months after the release of the Green Report recommended against the practice.

Chief Justice Derek Green concluded that MHAs "should be prohibited from making donations and other gratuitous payments to or on behalf of individuals, charities, community groups or agencies using their constituency allowance or other public money."

Those provisions of the Green Report were quietly delayed by the legislature until after the Oct. 9 election, although the governing Conservatives pledged to immediately abide by Green's recommendations.

In early September, St. John's West MHA Sheila Osborne personally delivered two $500 cheques to the principal of St. Matthew's elementary school in Cowan Heights.

She said the cheques came from two provincial government departments - Education, and Tourism, Culture and Recreation.

Osborne said the first $500 cheque came from a recreational grant program she has accessed in the past.

Tourism, Culture and Recreation officials confirmed the program is available to every district in the province, and seeks the input of local MHAs to prioritize spending.

Osborne said the second $500 cheque came about through the initiative of the school principal, who asked the Department of Education for some cash to help fund St. Matthew's "healthy living" campaign.

But instead of sending the money to the school, education officials sent it to Osborne, the MHA said.

The cheques came in around mid-July. She delivered them to the principal in early September, after classes had resumed for the year.

Asked whether that's allowed under the Green Report's recommendations, Osborne said, "Gosh, I don't know. It came over to my office for me to bring up, and I just brought it up and passed it in. There was no fanfare or anything."

She said she had "no idea" why the department would send her the cheque, instead of forwarding it directly to the school.

Education Minister Joan Burke said late Friday it's not unusual for the department to send such grants to schools through the MHA, when the member has been involved in the process.

Earlier this summer, Tory Exploits MHA Clayton Forsey turned over a $500 cheque to a Bay D'Espoir cancer benefit concert on behalf of the provincial Health Department.

Bay D'Espoir is in the district of Fortune Bay-Cape La Hune, represented by a Liberal.

Questioned about the matter last month by The Telegram, Forsey said he was asked to make the donation on behalf of Health Minister Ross Wiseman. But unlike Osborne, Forsey made the donation at a public event.

The Coaster, the community newspaper serving the Coast of Bays region, initially reported Forsey made the donation on behalf of Premier Danny Williams. A week later, the paper ran a correction. Forsey acknowledged he requested the clarification.

At the time, a Health official said it's not unusual for the department to make donations to such causes, and said it's also common for the minister or a government MHA to pass over the money.

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The past in our present

One of the great services done by John Gushue in this election is the CBC election website and its connection to resources on past elections.

Take, for example, a 16 minute national CBC documentary on the 1971 election, the one that marked the beginning of the end of the Smallwood reign.

You'll see a style of campaigning long gone, in which politicians like Joey Smallwood [note the preference for the diminutive of his first name], Frank Moores and John Crosbie delivered political speeches to large crowds without benefit of notes. They spoke extemporaneously and eloquently, an ability lacking in far too many politicians - let alone party leaders - these days.

You'll see a very young Jim Walsh, the New Democratic Party candidate in Humber West.

You'll see an incumbent premier dismiss Labrador issues as nothing more than crass opportunism on the part of Labrador Party leader Tom Burgess. You'll see Burgess - eloquent and extemporaneous - telling an audience in Labrador West that the mines in that part of the province had contributed 25% of the provincial government's revenues. The part not aired included telling the audeince that not much of that wealth had been returned to Labrador.

You'll hear Frank Moores talking about government party candidates handing out cheques from government funds in their districts - Moores calls it a slush fund - and the orgy of road paving. Moores attributes it to a lack of planning and a mere desire of the party to be re-elected.

How times change.

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No Viagra needed

At last a picture of the infamous sign identified by the grammar police.

The other campaign

One of the things to watch in this provincial election has been the media campaign, from the Tories low-key one to the Liberals' barely existent one. The new Democrats are somewhere in between, if that's possible.

There are the party websites, all of which represent the very best of Web 1.0 in a Web 2.0 world.

Even the Tory site, which is by far the best of the three party sites, is missing the sort of things that have become commonplace in political campaigns. Stuff like syndication feeds to allow people easily to access information from news releases. There's no campaign blog and even the whole layout is not designed to include people and invite them to participate. Rather, the party websites are simply devices for sending messages, not receiving them.

None of the political parties are using new media at all. No podcasting, let alone vidcasting.

There'll be more on this over weekend at Bond and Persuasion Business.

For now, let's turn attention to the unofficial contributions to the campaign, the stuff being put out by ordinary people.

There are bulletin boards on the Internet. There's good old nf.general, the newsgroup that seems to be decidedly uninterested in the campaign.

And there's youtube. Undisputed King or Queen of the genre in I.P.Freely. Sheer volume of output alone this year has dwarfed anything put out by the candidates. One of the original vids has had nearly 10,000 views since it emerged during the winter by-elections. A more recent vid on the campaign in Central Labrador has pulled almost 1,000 views in less than a week. [Hint for the professors out there: broadband access has nothing to do with it anymore than broadcasting does.]

Then there's one that cropped up in the Bond e-mail just this evening. It picks up on the raging political battle in Labrador and on something that the Tory campaign missed. Your humble e-scribbler, unrepentant townie that he is - the title townie bastard is already claimed - missed it completely as well.

In one of the streeters on the Tory website, at least two of the people refer to fighting for "Newfoundland". The first guy seems to be standing in front of the library at Memorial. There's an abrupt edit at the end of the word "Newfoundland' in the original, but that may mean nothing at all.

The second one is impossible to situate, but the phrase "Newfoundland" is unmistakable, as opposed to "Newfoundland and Labrador" or "NewfoundlandLabrador" as the province has become over at Voice of the Cabinet Minister.

The name of the province is a sensitive issue in Labrador.

Very sensitive.

Just how sensitive?

Well, the answer to that is in the intensity of the battles raging in the seats in Labrador, including the one held by cabinet minister John Hickey. He's the guy under attack in the 1,000-views video.

Campaign Notes: End of Week 2

1. Contrast in travel. From the Friday Telegram.

In an out-of-the-way hangar at St. John's airport, a handful of journalists are sitting comfortably in overstuffed leather chairs, gazing into their laptops or staring wide-eyed at the day's travel itinerary.
There's coffee, tea and an assortment of breakfast snacks.

And judging by the decor, this place is accustomed to well-heeled visitors.

Parked less than 10 metres away is a sleek private jet valued at about $2 million. Its two pilots wait patiently for their VIP passenger - Premier Danny Williams - and his entourage.

Then there's the Liberal bus-bound travel and the NDP's minivan.

2. Heard that one before, sorta. From Danny Williams in Marystown:

"My goal is to get the husbands and the fathers and the sons and the daughters and the mothers who have gone away to work, gone away to Alberta, gone across this country and get 'em back home," Williams told the crowd.

When Clyde Wells uttered the famous "every mother's son" line in Cox's Cove in 1989, he was talking about creating an economy and society where people could make a choice to live in Newfoundland and Labrador or pursue their own goals wherever they wanted. There's a big difference between individual choice and getting people back just because it fits some other imperative. Like say the demeaning "homing pigeon" nonsense Danny Williams likes to spout.

3. The Ghosts of Peckford. Interesting to see Peckford-era cabinet ministers Glenn Tobin (Social Services, Government Services) and Bob Aylward (Rural, Agricultural and Northern Development, Forest Resources and finally Municipal Affairs) advancing for Danny Williams at a rally in Marystown.

Tobin represented Burin-Placentia West from 1982 to 1996. He's currently the chair of the provincial government's liquor corporation.

Aylward represented the district of Kilbride from 1979 to 1993. Most recently he was vice-chair of the electoral boundaries commission.

Eons ago, Tobin was interviewed in a television report on the provincial government's make-work schemes. These would let people work on provincially funded projects long enough to qualify for federal unemployment insurance benefits. The whole policy was known as Lotto 10-42, a play on a popular gambling game combined with the formula that 10 weeks of make-work earned 42 weeks of federal benefits. The interview lurks in the archives at CBC most likely, but the one part that stuck with your humble e-scribbler all these years was pretty simple: Tobin denied there was such a policy. But if there was, he said, it wouldn't matter since oil would be flowing shortly and all would be fine.

4. Curiouser and curiouser. labradore, noticed something very interesting from Danny Williams speech in Corner Brook this week. The Tory campaign song was apparently written in 2004, or as Williams described it, just after the offshore deal victory. Problem: the deal came in 2005. Maybe there was a reason why Danny Williams didn't want to release poll results from his first 18 months in office. Makes you wonder what was in the polls, though, since they were eventually released to the Telegram but the Telly did nothing with them. Maybe the Telly missed something, aside from the research on adopting the green, white and pink native flag as the new provincial emblem. Maybe there was something curious in there after all, like discovering how much of a disaster the flag flap was, as revealed by the Premier's own polling.

5. You'll get the files, manana. The Indy is reporting this weekend that Diane Whelan promised to release details of her constituency allowance spending, particularly the donations. You may recall that, of the 115 legislators subjected to a review by the Auditor General, Whelan handed out the largest percentage of her allowance as cash gifts. The day after saying she'd cough up the details, Whelan told the Indy she'd dig the information out. But we'd have to wait until after the election to see where the money went. The story might be online next week.

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First poll results

NTV/Telelink released the first public opinion poll of the provincial election campaign on Thursday.

The poll of 1583 residents across Newfoundland and Labrador showed some interesting results. Almost half those surveyed (48.7%) gave no answer to the question on which party they would vote for. Of that number, 30.4% were undecided, 14.1% refused to answer and only 4.2% indicated they would not vote.

As reported by NTV, 40.3% intended to vote Progressive Conservative, 7.3% were voting Liberal and 3.6% were voting NDP. Telelink then calculated the responses removing all non-answers and then compares the result to the method used by Corporate Research Associates.

However, this is an odd way of assessing the result. Those who supplied no answer or who indicated they were undecided were not apparently asked follow-up questions to determine any leanings, including whether they might belong in the "will not vote" category. Only 4.2% indicated they would not vote. Therefore, only those who indicated they would not vote should be excluded.

Those adjusted results would be:

n = 1517	n	%
PC	638	42
LIB	116	7.6
NDP	57	3.7
UND	481	31.7
REF	223	14.7

The truly interesting thing about these results is that they potentially show the actual popularity of the current administration versus the poll results using the method of eliminating most of the undecided or no answers.

If you look at the undecideds and those who refused to answer the question, there are actually more people in that pile (46.8%) than are actually openly committed to a governing party that is purported at unprecedented levels of popularity in others polls.

Think about that.

People refuse to answer questions or indicate they are undecided for many reasons. Some have to do with possible perception of the responses, were they to become known. Even though a survey like this one is conducted by telephone, in a small community there may be a concern that confidential information - like voting intentions - will become widely known. A voting intention that goes against the local norm or the perceived local norm mightr be withheld for fear of social repercussions.

But without getting into a range of hypothetical situations, just consider that in a province where the current Premier is supposedly overwhelmingly popular, the undecideds were only 10% less than the decideds giving their voting choice as Progressive Conservative.

Some pollsters and others will use a simple method and allocate the undecideds and refusals in the same way as the decideds. Unfortunately, the statistical arguments used in favour of this approach don't conform with actual experience. In 1999, for example, a poll similar to this one reported undecideds of 30% just before the debate. no more public polls were released but the final tally on voting day suggested that the undecideds broke disproportionately in favour of the opposition Progressive Conservatives under Ed Byrne.

Aside from that, there are a variety of things we don't know about this poll - they aren't reported - that might also affect interpretation of the results. These other details would include the relative percentages of males and females in the final sample, compared to the population and how those segments responded. We also can't account for the relative mix of respondents from the northeast Avalon versus other regions of the province. other demographic would also help to assess the poll results.

What we have here, though, is really just another example of why the media "horse race polls" ultimately don't give those of us outside the political parties any useful information on which to make judgments.

Added to that general reservation must be a question about the interpretation given by NTV in this story. Yes, there is strong Tory support, but the real story - the one with details that begged for better research - is in the undecideds and refuseds.

Maybe local media outlets will start doing better research designs for future elections. They cost a little more but they are so much better for informing audiences.

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1. Following is the text of the NTV story, as linked above. Paragraphing has been changed for clarity.

Telelink poll shows strong Tory support, high undecided rate

September 27, 2007

The Progressive Conservatives maintain a large lead halfway through the campaign, although there is still a large undecided vote. That's according to a poll conducted by Telelink and paid for by NTV. On Tuesday and Wednesday, Telelink polled 1,583 residents across the province. Of those, slightly less than half watched Tuesday night’s leaders’ debate. Telelink asked which leader gave the best performance: 40.3% of viewers chose PC Leader Danny Williams, NDP Leader Lorraine Michael came second with 34.4 and only 4.6 chose Liberal Leader Gerry Reid. The rest had no opinion.

The margin of error for that sample was /-3.5 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

Then Telelink asked, "Did the debate influence how you will vote in the election?" 16.1said yes, while 77.8per cent said no.

Finally, Telelink asked respondents how they planned to vote on Election Day: 40.3% said Progressive Conservative, 7.3% said Liberal, and 3.6% cent said NDP.

Among the 48.7% who gave no answer, 30.4 said they were undecided, 14.1 refused to answer, and 4.2 said they will not vote. That was substantially higher than the 24% who were undecided or not voting when Telelink polled voters this time last year. The margin of error for that sample was +/-2.5 percentage points.

However, when the non-answering block is factored out of the results, the numbers are almost identical to the quarterly Corporate Research Associates polls. Among decided voters, 78.6 said they would vote PC, 14.3 would vote Liberal, and 7.1 would vote NDP. The margin of error on that sample is +/-3.4 percentage points.

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2. Related on Bond:

Shaggin' polls

Poll-er magic

Polls and something called a poll

Perils of polls [We asked for the poll report, but nothing ever showed up.]