Recipes of the Labrador
"It's a cookbook in aid of the Children's Wish Foundation of Canada put together by our volunteers in L'anse Au Loup. The cookbook is just $5.00 available at our office and includes many great recipes. The cost of postage and handling is $10.00 if you would like one mailed to you.
The cookbook is in memory of Paula Normore who passed away after a snowmobile accident at age 14."
"Our offices" would be the Children's Wish Foundation, Newfoundland and Labrador.
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1. ExxonMobil drove the bus.
Well, when it comes to project timings the big player called the shots.
The companies were ready to rumble in 2006 but the disagreement put this project firmly in the pile for sometime after 2012.
ExxonMobil never wavered from that lead-time.
They confirmed it as recently as March.
2. How much is that doggie in the window?
Well, how much is a pig in a poke?
The Telegram and the Mighty Ceeb fell all over themselves today with the supposed cash value of the Hebron deal at $28 billion. Aside: Could David Cochrane have been any more excited today hosting "On the Go"? Second aside: Yes, the Telly's been known to endorse big deals before.
That number is bogus, though, just as Cochrane and all the others well know since - like every other cash comparison figure and any cash valuation of this project (aside from construction costs) - the numbers are pulled from the nearest bodily orifice.
The $28 billion figure tossed around today assumes an average price of crude oil between 2018 (first oil) and 2043 (project termination) of US$112 or so per barrel. Not even the oil companies are investing based on those sorts of airy-fairy projections.
The $20 billion figure also tossed around on Wednesday used an assumed price of oil of US$87 over the same time period.
Wade Locke projected $10 billion over the same time span using an assumed price of US$50 a barrel. And before anyone steps in to note the words super-royalty, let us all be reminded that the super-royalty applies only when oil remains above US$50 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate.
Do the math yourself.
What is the average price of oil over the past 25 years?
What's been the usual price of oil over that time period, as opposed to the average price?
Now take another look at the Hebron projections.
Put it another way: when the Hibernia deal was signed in September 1990, oil prices were as low as they could have been foreseen and were foreseen. Within two years oil was at US$8 a barrel. Only a few years earlier, it had been forecast to attain and stay above US$100 a barrel.
The project was assumed to be a total loser when it was started; that is, the government never expected the project to hit payout. As it is, Hibernia will generate in excess of $14 billion in provincial government revenues over its entire life span. The government figures today deliberately low-balled Hibernia, Terra Nova and White Rose in order to hype the Hebron stock.
The project is going ahead; that's good. What it's worth to the provincial treasury will only be known at some distant point in the future.
3. A Hebron exclusive they won't discuss.
Hebron is first oil project offshore Newfoundland and Labrador that will start construction four years after a development agreement was reached with the provincial government.
Hibernia, Terra Nova and White Rose all started construction within months of the signing.
4. So how much work will be done in the province?
Safest bet is the bare minimum committed.
The provincial government negotiating team seems to have operated on the assumption that it didn't need to lock down all possible local construction - an earlier political commitment - since the NLRC refinery and two other projects would be sucking up the labour pool at the same time.
By the time that assumption was proven to be pretty stunned, it was too late.
The gravity base and its associated piping will be done here, along with a few other bits of simple welding like the helideck, the lifeboat rigging and the flare boom.
By the time this project starts construction - some time after 2012 - there may well be a deepening of the current global labour shortage. Any local construction workers currently in Alberta will be even more wedded to that economy than they are now making it unlikely the "homing pigeons" will be homing. Four years from now, the labour market locally will be smaller and older than it currently is.
Add it all together and you can see that it's highly likely some shipyard in Mississippi or Korea will be slamming the topsides together for Hebron.
5. And what about the royalty regime?
Bond Papers already went through it, in spades:
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Now, by any logical process, in order for there to be counter-spin, there has to be spin first.
This is not a chicken and egg thing; very simply put, nothing can be counteracted unless it exists.
And you will likely recall that spin is another word for hype, bullshit and lies.
So if we take this phrase - uttered by the Premier back in April - based on the meaning of the words, counter-spin would be a positive action in that it is intended to dispel hype, bullshit, lies, half-truths and other forms of misrepresentation and even outright deception contained in whatever spin existed in the first place.
Yet the positive action of dispelling falsehood is somehow negative?
What an odd notion.
And what a truly queer idea: that a government so overwhelmingly popular might be somehow deflected from its mighty accomplishments by concerns for what must surely be - given the almighty popularity of the government - entirely without any impact at all.
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The new super royalty for the province is an additional 6.5 per cent of net revenue at higher oil prices (>US$50 WTI/bbl) after net royalty payout;From the Hibernia royalty regime:
The Net Royalty consists of a two tier profit sensitive royalty which becomes effective when Net Royalty Payout occurs.Net royalty payout is "point in time when the costs related to a particular project are recovered plus a specified return allowance on those costs." A similar concept exists in the province's basic offshore royalty regime.
• Tier 1
The Tier 1 Net Royalty is 30% of Net Revenue after a Return Allowance of 15% is achieved. Basic Royalty is a credit against this royalty. Therefore, the interest holders pay the higher of Basic Royalty or Tier 1 Net Royalty.
• Tier 2
The Tier 2 Net Royalty is 12.5% of Net Revenue after a Return Allowance of 18% plus the CPI is achieved. The Tier 2 Net Royalty is in addition to any other royalties payable.
would think of using Kevin O'Brien as the stunt dummy for a demonstration of "fall protection" gear.
Joe Clarke almost impaling himself on a bayonet while inspecting troops.
Jean Chretien in a funny helmet.
Kevin O'Brien taking a header off a house in St. Thomas Line.
Freakin' brilliant.
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When Americans were asked in a 2007 poll by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press to name the journalist they most admired, Mr. Stewart, the fake news anchor, came in at No. 4, tied with the real news anchors Brian Williams and Tom Brokaw of NBC, Dan Rather of CBS and Anderson Cooper of CNN. And a study this year from the center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism concluded that “ ‘The Daily Show’ is clearly impacting American dialogue” and “getting people to think critically about the public square.”
When it comes to federal politics, reporters and other observers sometimes misunderstand the words the Premier uses.
It's really very simple.
Whenever he says "Newfoundland and Labrador" or "we", he means "Danny Williams".
That's it.
The confusion comes from the fact that most people do not consider the entire province, all its people and their collective interest to be the same thing nor do they believe it is embodied in one person.
By contrast, he does.
As in words after the 2007 general election to the effect that "I believe in my heart and soul that I embody the heart and soul of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians."
It was a real "l'etat? C'est moi!" kinda moment.
So take a quote like this one:
"From a Green Shift perspective, as well, Newfoundland and Labrador is just basically waiting to see where all the cards are going to fall here."
On the face of it, this is a pretty ludicrous statement given that in the same scrum, the Premier said that "[t]his election is not going to be decided strictly on Green Shift."
He's right on that point.
The election isn't going to be decided on one issue.
And the Green Shift was never intended to be the silver bullet of the next federal election.
The Green Shift is a niche policy designed to move a certain type of voter. It won't appeal to everyone, but it will appeal to enough to make a difference here and there. Coupled with other similar niche ideas, it could tip enough ridings to propel the Liberals to a minority or majority government.
The whole concept is taken from the Conservative strategy in 2005/06.
That's why the Connies fear it so much they are apoplectic trying to make the Green Shift some vision of the apocalypse.
But if you go back and apply the universal translator to that quote, you can see that, in fact, Danny Williams is waiting to see how the field shapes up on policies before he endorses one party or any party.
Now the quote makes perfect sense.
That's what the Premier did in 2004. He waited to see how the offers looked and he went with the one he liked.
He did it again in 2005/06, endorsing Stephen Harper and the Conservatives even though the Layton New Democrats said yes to every single thing the Premier asked for in his Letter to Santa 2005.
But here's the thing: in both federal elections, the Premier's impact on voters even in Newfoundland and Labrador produced a marginal effect.
In 2004, he made it tough for the local volunteers to turn out for the Conservative brethren. They lacked party workers, but the Conservatives who won, did so in usual Conservative seats.
Individual voters still turned out and voted federally for their own choice in a secret ballot, in many cases, despite what their provincial vote may have looked like or what the Premier wanted.
In 2005/06, it became safe for provincial Tories not only to work on Connie campaigns but to run for them as well.
But don't forget one crucial point: the resulting seat count was exactly the same as in 2004. There were changes in voter turn-out but the overall impact of the Premier's position and intervention was marginal at best.
So while Danny Williams may like to answer reporters questions about the next federal election, it's doubtful the federal Conservatives are taking him too seriously. Aside from the impact in his own province, Danny Williams just doesn't travel well. Sure there are people who crop up here and there saying lovely things about him, but - as with every other provincial premier since the dawn of time - he just doesn't carry much beyond his own province.
That's because - fundamentally - Danny Williams is not identified as speaking on national issues from a national perspective. He's not even really speaking on a plane that connects with voters in Dauphin or Deseronto.
He's a niche player, with a niche impact.
Like a Green Shift.
The only difference among the federal parties is that - rightly or wrongly - the federal Conservatives have taken the measure of the niche impact based on two kicks at the can in the recent past.
The New Democrats seem to have missed the lessons. So too have some of the local Liberals - candidates and back roomers alike - who want to court Danny in the belief his blessing will be all that is needed to change their fortunes.
But the Connies?
They've decided the impact isn't enough to worry about, either locally or nationally. To get the point, think about that famous Stephen Harper quote from October 2006 in Gander.
You know.
The one that came only from the Premier himself. Something like "We don't need Newfoundland and Labrador."
Apply the Universal Translator.
Now you understand why DW is so pissed.
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Create a dysfunctional situation where one didn't have to exist and then crusade to fix it.
It's a bit like backing a dodgy proposition which you, yourself, had previously rejected, and then crusading against the position you endorsed.
If this keeps up, Harper will pledge to change the rules on election spending so that something like the in-out scam never happens again.
Sheesh, where have we heard that one before?
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With some renewed strength in the American dollar, coupled with decreased demand, the price of crude oil for September delivery closed the week at US$111.
“The dollar is on fire again so that's causing people to re-evaluate everything,” said Phil Flynn, oil analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. “It means oil prices could fall dramatically. We could see prices get to double digits if this continues.”
An OPEC forecast of lower demand also put downward pressure on prices.
Newfoundland and Labrador finance department officials may not be sweating yet, but if the trend continues to the end of the year, their forecast average price of $87 might not hold up.
Even if the provincial government skates through the current fiscal year, it may have to restrain spending over the next couple of years or - a more likely scenario - boost borrowing to fuel the spending spree.
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While the conventional media have been fixated on the Connie's deliberate effort to undermine parliamentary committees by co-ordinating a refusal by witnesses to testify, some details of the in-out scheme were entered by witnesses who did show up.
Here's one excerpt from the testimony of a former provincial cabinet minister. Two other witnesses, from the campaign in random-Burin-St. Georges gave similar evidence: money sent down from Ottawa on condition it be sent back a couple of days later. No sign that any national advertising ever appeared using the taglines of the local candidates.
Hon. Charles Hubbard: Where was the money spent?
Mr. Joe Goudie (Conservative candidate in Labrador; former provincial cabinet minister): We have no idea.
Again, I remind you and the honourable committee that I, personally, was not aware of this until after the campaign was completed and really, in any detail, not until the news report came out in April. The money was not spent by us.
Mrs. Singleton [campaign manager]and Mr. Barnes were both.... More specifically, Mr. Barnes, my official agent, was directed by a gentleman, Mr. Hudson of the Conservative Party of Canada, to, once funds had been transferred to our account.... It was explained that 60% of that amount could then be claimed on our election return, which seemed unusual but nevertheless they were following directions, and that the amount of money transferred to our account would then have to be returned to the Conservative Party of Canada as soon as possible.
Hon. Charles Hubbard: To clarify, if you gave somebody $10,000 and wanted it back.... They could claim that $10,000 in the expense, which they didn't spend. Do you mean to tell me you'd get $6,000 back from the Government of Canada as a result?
Mr. Joe Goudie: As I understand it, that was the implication of the explanation. Yes.
Hon. Charles Hubbard: Where would that $6,000 eventually wind up?
Mr. Joe Goudie: In the campaign account, as far as I know. I know nothing other than that.
Hon. Charles Hubbard: It almost sounds, Mr. Goudie, like a very fast way of making money.
Mr. Joe Goudie: It sounds that way.
No wonder someone wanted to shift the media coverage to something other than testimony.
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Changing global economic circumstances for the paper industry have been pressing on the industry in Newfoundland and Labrador for years.
The future of the AbitibiBowater mill at Grand Falls-Windsor, established in 1905, may be known as early as next week, according to CBC News. This follows an extensive review within the newly merged paper company of all its assets.
There are a few things to bear in mind:
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A stand-alone corporation devoted to a single ocesan species with enormous economic value: now there's a direction the FFAW should be taking rather than clawing a paltry ten grand from the provincial government in order to have local lobster fishermen keep records of their catches.
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Cynthia Downey, who ran in Newfoundland, said her campaign could have made much better use of the $7,700 transferred by the party in and out of her account.
On the face of it, this looks like a great project: a bunch of provincial government cash to pay a bunch of lobster fishermen to track their catches.
"This project is an example of harvesters taking a direct role in the stewardship of the fishery and having input into the management of the resource," said the Honourable Trevor Taylor, acting Minister of Fisheries and Aquaculture. "As such, our government is pleased to approve funding for this initiative. This is important work because it is the most extensive attempt to date to profile lobster stocks."
Ummm.
Not exactly.
The fishermen involved in this provincial government project can't make any decisions about the lobster fishery. They can't have any meaningful input on quotas, season or anything else.
That's because all they are going to do is write down in a notebook how many lobsters they landed (excluding the unofficial ones to be sold under the table later on), how big they were and so on.
Now while there is lots of talk about this whole thing being scientific, note that it is being run by the Fish, Food and Allied Workers Union. That's right, the union which represents the people who will be getting the cash for making notes in a book.
There's no mention of Memorial University, the Marine Institute or any other crowd of scientists.
There's just the people who catch lobsters and their union.
Now for an example of fishermen having real control over their livelihood, take a look at the Eastport Marine Protected Area, now expanded to five sites along the northeast coast.
As for science, the whole approach in these lobster management areas is based on science. It has been since they were established.
If the provincial fisheries department and the hunter-gatherers union really wanted to get interested in fisheries management, conservation and a scientifically based approach, they'd be working with the federal fisheries crowd.
This provincial initiative doesn't look like anything significant. It looks more like make-work in another guise or a political statement.
After all, it's only $10,000.
The Newfoundland and Labrador Legacy Nature Trust already administered over half a million in federal cash on one study four years ago.
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1. Layoff of 40 staff, as Newfound NV looks to stick to its core business lines.
2. A brief profile of the new boss at Newfound NV.
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