Brent breaks 40

Brent crude - the benchmark for Newfoundland and Labrador crude - settled at US$39.74 on Friday for the first time in four years.

West Texas Intermediate  - the price usually quoted by news media - closed the day at US$40.41.

The forty dollar mark has become a new marker both for analysts and the news media in the current  economic crisis.

On Thursday, a former Merrill Lynch analyst said that conditions may exist to bring crude oil below US$25 for a short period:

“A temporary drop below $25 a barrel is possible if the global recession extends to China and significant non-OPEC cuts are required,” Merrill commodity strategist Francisco Blanch said in yesterday’s report. “In the short run, global oil- demand growth will likely take a further beating as banks continue to cut credit to consumers and corporations.”

January put options on $20 oil - the option to sell at a specific price on a specific date - were popular on Friday.  What that means  is that there was increasing speculation  - although still very small - that oil would be that low by January.

Related to that, analysts no longer assume that China will be immune from the effects of the recession.

“Everybody – even the most bullish people – have now given up on the decoupling idea,” [Stephen Briggs, analyst at RBS Global Banking & Markets] said, referring to the argument that China was making up for any demand slowdown in the United States.

Merrill Lynch is now slashing its forecast average price for crude in 2009.  On October 1, the company projected US$90 but this week lowered the estimated average to US$50:

“In our view, oil prices could find a trough at the end of Q1 2009 or early Q2 2009 with the seasonal slowdown in demand. Then, as economic activity starts to strengthen, we see oil prices posting a modest recovery in the second half of 2009.”

-srbp-

Norsk Hydro ponders production cut

Norwegian aluminium giant Norsk Hydro is considering a cut in its existing production in light of a dramatic global drop in demand for aluminium and aluminium products.

Norsk Hydro said the crisis has led to "substantial problems for the construction and automotive industries, which are among the metal industry's most important markets".

"This has again triggered a dramatic decline in demand for aluminium products," added Hydro, which has in past years restructured its aluminium products business, including exiting numerous less profitable automotive parts ventures.

So much for that big announcement in Labrador about a new smelter.

So much too for the idea that growth in China and India would offset any American downturn in the markets.

“The industries, economies are now in serious pain through the world,” said Stephen Briggs, analyst at RBS Global Banking & Markets.

“Everybody – even the most bullish people – have now given up on the decoupling idea,” Mr. Briggs said, referring to the argument that China was making up for any demand slowdown in the United States.

-srbp-

Wanna try that poll again?

Okay, leave aside for a second the fact the CBC headline on EKOS' robopoll is grossly misleading.

Would the poll results be the same now that we discover the country had the highest job loss last month in 26 years?

Maybe the Ontarians who talked to EKOS' machines will be rethinking their position.

-srbp-

"There are no cheap seats in the House of Commons"

As it turns out Jack Harris was on his feet when the proclamation proroguing parliament arrived in the House of Commons.

He holds the distinction of being the last member to speak in what is surely the shortest session of the parliament of Canada in history.

That isn't as important as what Harris was saying at the moment the proclamation was issued.  Harris delivered an eloquent speech about parliament, the importance of individual members and the current crisis.

Following is the extract from Hansard, for the record:

Mr. Jack Harris (St. John's East, NDP): Mr. Speaker, I have been involved in parliamentary democracy in a direct way for about the last 21 years, first in the House and then for 16 years in the legislature of Newfoundland and Labrador. I was happy to be re-elected to the House in the October 14 election. I have never been so concerned about
the state of parliamentary democracy in this country as I have become in the last week.

I know hon. members are rising in the House and thanking their constituents for electing them or returning them to office, and I have applauded each and every one of them. Then, they have proceeded in some cases on the government’s side of the House to talk about the
Prime Minister and the government having been elected. There, they veer from the path of parliamentary democracy. The current Prime Minister was not elected as the prime minister. That is not the way Parliament works. Each and every member of the House is a member of
Parliament and has the right and duty to represent his or her constituents.

I heard one hon. member opposite this morning talk about the cheap seats in the House of Commons. I am assuming he was referring to either his own back benches or to the opposition members’. I do not know. However, let me say this: there are no cheap seats in the House of Commons. We are all equally elected to represent our constituents and our interests. Parliamentary democracy allows the leader of the party with the most seats in the House to go to the Governor General and in the case of a minority government either resign or ask or advise the Governor General that he or she wishes to seek the confidence of the House. That is our system. That is what makes a person prime minister: having the confidence of the House.

It is assumed that, if you have a majority of seats in the House of Commons, you are the prime minister and you can form a government. However, after this election, a new government was sworn in, not the old government. That new government was sworn in because the sitting Prime Minister was able to say to the Governor General that he will
seek the confidence of the House. That is what we are doing now. We are now in a situation where the confidence of the House has been lost by the actions and failure of leadership of the Prime Minister of Canada.

What is the response? The response is a refusal to face the House, a refusal to govern with the support and confidence of the House of Commons and an attempt to use the notion of prorogation. Let us not use the fancy word. He wants to shut down Parliament because he cannot face the music. The reality is that he does not have the support of the House. The government does not have the support of the House. He has failed in his obligation to try to maintain the support of the House.

There has been a lot of talk about a government that works for Canada and supports working with other parties in Parliament. We all pledged to try to do that. However, someone broke that pledge last Thursday. They broke that pledge by refusing to reach to all parts of the House and to devise a plan that meets the support of at least the majority of the House to come up with a recognition that the recession that is upon us requires some immediate action.

In my own province of Newfoundland and Labrador today, it was announced by AbitibiBowater that a paper newsprint mill that has been there for over 100 years will close. Eight hundred people will be thrown out of work. Two weeks ago, I raised in the House the question of whether the government would support a program for older workers and training for younger workers who could save this mill. Nothing happened, and the mill is now closed as a result.   There is only one party in the House that is standing in the way of a government that works for Canadians. The opposition parties have worked together to come up with a plan that would allow us to have a government that would work for Canadians, and that is a Liberal-NDP coalition. That coalition has a policy accord that is designed to address the present economic crisis. There has been a lot of misinformation. There is no secret deal. 

The deal is right here on the website. It is there for everyone to see. Not only is it on the website, it is very clear and plain what the arrangements are. The arrangements with the Bloc Québécois is that it will not defeat an NDP-Liberal coalition for a period of 18 months. What we have is a promise of stability for 18 months. The government cannot deliver that. Conservatives could not deliver stability for two or three weeks in Parliament. What prospect does the government have to continue for the next 18 or 28 months, or even the next three months? None. The instability is coming from the government and from the failure of the Prime Minister to show the kind of leadership that is required. There is a lot of talk about working with other parties in the House and trying to vilify the Bloc Québécois, in the course of which creates a very divisive country. It has been said by Harold Wilson that: "Patriotism was the last refuge of the scoundrel". I am not calling anyone in particular a scoundrel and it may or may not be unparliamentary, but the tactics being used by the government and the Prime Minister in trying to save his own neck are very divisive. I hope...   

The Speaker: The hon. Minister of Justice is rising on a point of order.

-srbp-

AbitibiBowater hydro assets

Undoubtedly, there will be plenty of hype and posturing about the hydro-electric assets in which AbitibiBowater has an interest. 

There's already been plenty of silly talk about "repatriating" assets.  Had successive governments not interfered in the operation of the mill it might have been re-organized and saved.  As it is, the closure of this mill is a mess created by all the players.  None can escape responsibility.

Expect NL Hydro to purchase these assets from the private sector partners, one of which is Fortis, with the power being sold to Vale Inco.

In any event, here is a brief description of the assets. 

1.  Exploits River Hydro Partnership.  Partnership between Central Newfoundland Energy - a Fortis subsidiary - and AbitibiBowater. 30 megawatts.  Initial operational capacity (IOC): November 2003.  Supplied power to AbitibiBowater operation at Grand Falls-Windsor with surplus power sold to Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro under a long-term power purchase agreement.

2. Star Lake Hydro Partnership.  Partnership between CHI Canada Limited and AbitibiBowater. 18 megawatts. IOC: October 1998.  Star Lake displaces oil-fired generation at NL Hydro's Holyrood plant.

-srbp-

Try the captain next time

Maybe Janice Wells should have tried a bit of Captain Morgan or Lamb's next time she wants to write a book on a subject other than gardening.

Clearly gin and tonic isn't cutting it.

No.  There's no evidence at all Frank Moores was involved in the Airbus deal.

Not even a fax in his own handwriting documenting the schedule of commissions for the sale.

-srbp-

Business as usual

1.  AbitibiBowater to shut GFW mill.

2.  Vale Inco to close Voisey's Bay for one month in 2009.

Yep.

No one saw this coming at all.

Well, not anyone providing consulting advice to the provincial finance department and cabinet, apparently.

Gotta watch out we don't overheat the economy, too.

Apparently it takes a while for news to reach some quarters.

-srbp-

Cluck, cluck moo: Byward version

Among the funniest comments coming from Ottawa these days was an e-mail reporting the streets around Parliament Hill are blocked with chicken feathers these days.

So many chickens are coming home to roost that their shedding feathers are causing a driving hazard.  People are having difficulty walking and Ottawa Carlton municipal workers are putting in overtime trying to free up enough space for people to get around.

There are also reports of tar on back order at local Home Depot outlets and the price for rails is climbing on a shortened supply.  Some people are apparently planning to take advantage of the feather supply.

The latest chicken to head home wore a wet suit and jet skied up the Rideau Canal.

Stockwell Day's people worked on a secret deal with Bloc in 2000 in case the election returned a minority parliament.  Day denies knowing about the deal.  Others might be seeing nuggets and dipping sauce since Day's defence emphasizes "signing" a deal with separatists. 

That kind of feather-splitting should make anyone skeptical.  Then when you find out Stock had a loose definition of "bad" back then - much like Loyola Hearn - you pretty much know Stock is running scared.  Scared of losing the car and driver, the expense account and the trappings of power.

The lust for power runs deep among the Blue crowd.  It will likely take hundreds of thousands of dollars to get their claw marks out of the desks, door jabs and banisters as they get dragged from their offices next Monday.

CBC dug into the files as part of the televised version of the Stockwell Day story.  They found a 1996 article by some guy named Harper and his best pal Tom Flanagan wherein the newbie member of parliament and his future political staffer mused about cutting a deal with separatists as a way of ousting the Liberals.

If they get punted to the opposition curb next week in a confidence vote, we can only wonder what will happen when the cows come home.  That bovine history,  full of stuff like Cadman and all its implications of potential criminal activity, could well make getting covered in tar and feathers and run out of town on rail look like an afternoon strolling the Byward.

-srbp-

Vale cuts staff, production globally

1.  Globe and Mail reports Vale Inco will be cutting output at Sudbury.

2.  Globally, the situation is significant:

Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Cia. Vale do Rio Doce, the world’s biggest iron-ore producer, fired 1,300 employees and will send 5,500 more on paid leave because of the “serious crisis” in the metals and mining industry.

An additional 1,200 employees are being retrained for new jobs, a press official for the Rio de Janeiro-based company said today in a telephone interview. Before the cuts, Vale had 62,000 employees worldwide, said the official, who declined to give her name.

3.  Nickel prices have dropped astronomically from $22 a pound (May 2007) to less than $5 currently.  It's hard to imagine that this would not have a serious adverse effect on provincial government revenues both in the current fiscal year and the coming one.

-srbp-

Hearn on BQ: "There are some really fine people in the Bloc."

The Bond Papers Wayback Machine is a useful thing.

Well, useful for people like your humble e-scribbler.

Not so useful for the people - like Conservatives - who hope people have really poor memories.

Former federal fish minister Loyola Hearn turned up on local radio today talking about the evils of cuddling up to the Bloc Quebecois. Hearn has grave concerns.  The country might break up.

You will recall Hearn as one of the architects behind the merger that created the Conservative Party and put Stephen Harper in the Prime Minister's Office.

Not surprising then that he is telling us all how nasty those separatists are and how dangerous it is to get in bed with them.

So nasty in fact that back in 2004 when the Conservatives tried a group grope with Gilles Duceppe and his colleagues, the Blockies balked but Loyola kept trying to keep the flames of minority coalition passion alive.

No "one foot on the floor" thing for Loyola:

“I have no problem with the fact they are there to look after Quebec, I’m there to look after Newfoundland, and the six other MPs also, and if we’re not we shouldn’t be there,” Hearn told The Sunday Independent. [Full text below]

...

"There are some really fine people in the Bloc, you know," says Hearn. "Probably more so than any other party … quality individuals."

When asked about Quebec’s ongoing contention that Labrador is part of Quebec and not Newfoundland, Hearn says it’s a claim that sounds strangely familiar.

“It’s no more than us disputing the nose and tail of the Grand Banks.”

...

“We should take a lesson from the Bloc in dedicated support for your province. However, if the screw tightens where you’re looking to put forward your separatist views, then government can’t give into those wishes,” says Hearn.

Yes, even the sacrosanct Labrador border would not stand in the way of the Conservative march to power in 2004 using every possible means, including trying to avoid having an election.

It's time like this when immortal words about Conservatives come to mind:

They have to lie — the truth isn’t their friend right now. Get angry. Mock them mercilessly; they’ve earned it. ...You could eat their lunch, make them cry and tell their mamas about it and God himself would call it restrained. There are times when you are simply required to be impolite. There are times when condescension is called for!

There are times when condescension and mockery are called for.

Loyola proves it.

-srbp-

Conservatives on the Bloc

By Jeff Ducharme (St. John's)
The Independent
Sunday, July 04, 2004
 
Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe may have already put the kibosh 
on a coalition with the Conservatives, but St. John’s South MP Loyola 
Hearn says it could work.
 
"I have no problem with the fact they are there to look after Quebec, 
I’m there to look after Newfoundland, and the six other MPs also, and 
if we’re not we shouldn’t be there," Hearn told The Sunday Independent.
 
Hearn won a tightly contested battle for the federal riding of St. 
John’s South in the June 28th federal election. The incumbent Hearn 
beat Liberal challenger and political neophyte Siobhan Coady by a 
scant 1,500 votes in a race that came down to the wire. Hearn calls 
the battle the toughest of his long political career. 
 
Prime Minister Paul Martin barely maintained his grasp on power 
winning 135 seats compared to Conservative Leader Stephen Harper’s 99 
seats. If the Conservatives could cozy up to the Bloc and their 54 
seats, the two parties could control the House of Commons with a total 
of 153 votes between them. The Liberals and NDP could have a narrow 
advantage with a combined 154 seats. 
 
“We’ve indicated all along that we’re willing to work on an issue-by-
issue basis,” deputy Conservative leader Peter MacKay told CTV’s 
Question Period the day before voters went to the polls.
 
But the Conservatives may have a hard time forming any type of 
coalition with the Bloc. Duceppe and his party oppose the 
Conservative’s platform of scrapping the Kyoto Accord and its anti-
abortion stance.
 
“There are some really fine people in the Bloc, you know,” says 
Hearn. “Probably more so than any other party … quality individuals.”
 
Hearn credits Bloc MPs as being among the first to support his private 
member’s bill calling for custodial management of the Grand Banks. 
 
Natural Resources Minister John Efford found himself mired in a storm 
of criticism because he avoided the vote, saying if he had voted for 
the bill he would have been thrown out of cabinet.
 
“The earliest to come on board and some of the strongest supporters 
were people from the Bloc,” says Hearn.
 
When asked about Quebec’s ongoing contention that Labrador is part of 
Quebec and not Newfoundland, Hearn says it’s a claim that sounds 
strangely familiar.
 
“It’s no more than us disputing the nose and tail of the Grand Banks.”
 
Hearn says any coalition with the Bloc is touchy considering the 
anchor of the party’s platform is Quebec sovereignty and the erosion 
of Confederation.
 
“We should take a lesson from the Bloc in dedicated support for your 
province. However, if the screw tightens where you’re looking to put 
forward your separatist views, then government can’t give into those 
wishes,” says Hearn. 
 
If the Bloc and the Conservatives do find themselves in bed together 
when Parliament reconvenes, Hearn says it would likely be done on an 
issue-by-issue basis.
 
“We’re talking the same language — most of the time.”
 
 

Humber Valley Resort to go bankrupt

The company is blaming the provincial government.

They should be blaming someone else: Brian Dobbin.

When Dobbin took his leave, the company was in a financial mess -  insoluble mess - as it turns out. The wrong business model is the polite way someone described it.

Too bad.  The resort was a good idea.

Just that the execution sucked. 

Newfoundland and Labrador isn't a barren place to grow new ideas or significant industry, as Dobbin tried to whine when the Indey folded for the second time.

It's a barren place for piss-poor management;  the financial record on the resort speaks for itself.

And by the by, this makes Dobbin  - at the very least  - oh for two.

-srbp-

Another Conservative Homer moment

A minority party backed by the Bloc Quebecois.

Which one?

The "Stephen Harper Conservative Government".

D'oh!

-srbp-

They need a time out

There is a growing consensus that the current political crisis in Ottawa came from the Conservative Party's heavy-handed approach to government displayed in the mis-named financial update. 

Finance minister Jim Flaherty went beyond merely giving a report on the government's cash flows and the state of the Canadian economy to launch a much broader set of initiatives that would, among other things, ban strikes in the public service for several years.  There was no reason for such a draconian move but it was there.

What wasn't there was any sign of a stimulus package for the economy. To anyone listening to Flaherty's comments the words "stay the course" came to mind; but stay the course is hardly the option given both the serious downturn and the extent to which previous Conservative spending had decimated the public treasury. 

More than a decade of enormous surpluses produced by sound fiscal management had become piddling amounts that, in all likelihood would turn into deficits. 

The whole episode brought into the open once more concerns among Canadians that, when times turned tough, the ruling element within the party would head home to its ideological roots rather than display typically Canadian pragmatism.

On top of that, the crisis has shown up some of the fissures within the party rooted in the discomfort over Stephen Harper's autocratic style.

Clearly this is a party which has not only shown itself to be incapable of governing in a difficult period in a minority parliament.  This is a group which has manifest problems within its own ranks that need to be sorted. Dirty political tricks of the type the Conservatives used in their ruthless drive for power, hysterical rhetoric and churlish behaviour of the past few days merely remind Canadians of the controversy that continues to swirl around the Conservative Party of Canada.  A once proud and vital Canadian political force has been brought to a low not seen since the early 1990s. The party of Sir John A Macdonald and Brian Mulroney is now the party with nothing more to offer than reflexive Rovianisms.

Clearly, this is a party which needs a time out from government.

Better for them to take the time to fix their own problems and make an appeal to Canadians once again when they are ready to govern.

In the meantime, Canadian parliamentary democracy has offered a viable alternative to either more of a dysfunctional government or a second election in less than six months.  The Conservatives have tried to monger fear of separatism.  Aside from their baseless claims about senate seats and vetoes, the check against any notion that the country will fall apart rests in the elected members of parliament who would support a coalition government.

In particular, Canadians can rest assured that there is no one better in the next few months to ensure the unity of the country than Stephane Dion.  His record on separatism is clear.  He has found no need, in stark contrast to Mr. Harper, to try and curry favour with those who would see the federal government weakened to the point where the country ceases to function as surely as he we have seen him weaken the federal government's finances.

Time for the Conservatives to take a time out.

The only question is whether their current leader has the strength to face the House in a vote of confidence.  If he will not do that then surely he does not deserve the confidence of Canadians.

-srbp-

How rigged was my rally? Stand up for Canada version

The federal Conservatives must be really running scared at the prospect of a coalition ousting them before Christmas.

You can tell because someone evidently connected to the Connies has a website announcing rallies to be held "coast to coast" to stand up for Canada.  The party that has spent more time than any part other than the Bloc sucking up to provincialists and separatists is suddenly wrapping itself in the flag.

Such hypocrisy is not going unnoticed.

Heck, these goomers can't even tell when there's a flag in the room or if there is a flag what it actually means.

But hey, at least there will be rallies for the country in every part of the country, right?

Not likely.

New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador are all missing from the rally list.

This whole sham rally thing is all too familiar for people in Newfoundland and Labrador. A "stand up for Newfoundland and Labrador rally".

They've seen it before, just like they've seen a lot of things done by the federal Conservatives that look very familiar.

It is a sensitive subject, comparing the two Conservative parties, as the Premier said in the House yesterday: "Don’t try and compare us to what the Harper government has done in Ottawa."

-srbp-

Crude lower again; Williams worries about "overheating" local economy

West Texas Intermediate rose to US$47.26 in overnight trading according to bloomberg.com. It finished Tuesday in New York at US$46.96, the first time below US$47.00 since May 2005.  WTI is the futures price most often cited by news media.

80% of the world's light sweet crude - including Newfoundland and Labrador -  is measured against Brent a North Sea blend which typically trades below WTI.  It finished Tuesday trading at US$45.44, or about $56 (Canadian) with a 25% exchange rate.  Overnight it climbed to US$46.00.

OPEC will reportedly cut production at its next meeting looking to get oil towards OPEC's target price of US$70 a barrel.  So far, OPEC has proven to be spectacularly unsuccessful at controlling the world price of oil.

Attiyah reiterated that a price of under $70 a barrel was threatening to derail projects to boost oil and gas capacity. Oil has stayed below $70 since Nov. 5.

"My concern is that the oil price will go lower," Attiyah said. "And many projects will be delayed."

OPEC's most influential member, Saudi Arabia, said at the weekend that oil prices needed to return to $75 to keep the more expensive projects at the margins of world supply on track. Other OPEC members, such as Nigeria and Kuwait, have supported the Saudi view that $75 is fair to both consumers and producers.

Evidently OPEC hasn't been getting those memos that oil will return very shortly to the US$70 to 80 a barrel range or others that predict it will head back to US$100 a barrel sometime in 2009.

Meanwhile, in Newfoundland and Labrador, Premier Danny Williams told the legislature that his government would continue to do as it has been doing all along, using public money to stimulate the economy as long as it isn't to the point of overheating.

We are spending as much as we can to stimulate the economy without overheating the economy, and making sure that we get the best bang for our buck, and we will continue to do so.

Williams, who last week told reporters he is reading everything he can get his hands on in an effort to understand what is going on in the world, evidently forgot to read his own budget forecast.

Far from overheating, the 2008 budget forecast the economy would shrink by 2% in 2008.  This was a deliberate low-ball since private sector economists had instead forecast very modest growth of less than one percent.

-srbp-

Chevron delays '09 CAPEX plan

Chevron Corp is delaying release of its 2009 capital expenditure plans from December until January, citing significant changes in the marketplace.

-srbp-

Dunderdale reveals IOCC capex decision

In the House of Assembly Tuesday, natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale revealed that Ironore Company of Canada (IOCC) will be delaying Phase I and Phase II of its planned $500 million expansion program.

She gave no time frame for the delay.  IOCC announced the plan to increase output in early 2008 with a planned completion in 2011.

IOC informed me on Friday morning, Mr. Speaker, that they were going to delay Phase 1 and Phase 2 of their expansion program, that this would not have an impact on their permanent employees other than it might have an impact on overtime. The delay of the expansion is going to have an effect on services that they would have contracted to do pieces of work around that. It would have an impact on temporary workers who would be called upon to do that kind of work.

They did not provide to me at that time the numbers that were affected for potential people who would be involved in that contract. My main concern at that point in time, Mr. Speaker, was for the permanent employees of IOC, and I am glad to know that there will not be any layoffs of permanent employees at IOC at this time or in the short term.

IOCC's news release last Friday said only that the expansion project was under review.  it also said that no layoffs of permanent employees were under consideration.  It said nothing of temporary (non-permanent) employees.

Dunderdale described as "foolishness" questions from the opposition on the impact IOCC's decision would have on temporary employees and student employment.

-srbp-

Farting in their general direction

In the Monday Question Period, finance minister Jerome Kennedy seemed to be auditioning for a role in the off-off-off-Broadway production of Spam-a-lot.

The part?

The sarcastic, arrogant French knight from Monty Python and the Holy Grail. 

The following snip is at the end of series of questions in response to which Kennedy offered up  - for the most part - a raft of silly, partisan jabs but not much more. 

This bit is the especially silly part:

MR. KENNEDY: Mr. Speaker, I am not quite certain what the Leader of the Opposition refers to. Is she talking about retail sales or retail sales tax? Is she talking about revenues? Because last year, Mr. Speaker, the revenues in our Province broke down to - 61.8 per cent came from taxation, which included offshore oil royalties and mining royalties are 37 per cent of our revenues. There was investment; there were fees and fines, other provincial sources, and equalization and the transfers - the Canada social and health transfers.

So I am not quite certain what the hon. Leader of the Opposition is asking me, but if she asking me about retail sales, Mr. Speaker, it is expected that they will grow and they have grown 8.1 per cent, August of this year.

SOME HON. MEMBERS: Hear, hear!

MR. KENNEDY: Mr. Speaker, we have an actual increase in housing starts. The only province in this country right now, I think, that has an increase in housing starts. We are up to 220, 298 by September.

SOME HON. MEMBERS: Hear, hear!

MS JONES: Thank you, Mr. Speaker.

My next question is for the Minister of Natural Resources –

MR. KENNEDY: Give up, did you?

MS JONES: Oh, not by far.

You'd almost think that Kennedy was such a pompous ass merely as a means of covering up his own inability to grasp the demands of his job. 

More likely, the old boy is having a hard time coming to grips with the very serious financial mess coming next year.  That mess  - of course  - is something the Conception Bay Screamer won't be able to blame on the previous crowd since the crowd that created the upcoming problem are his colleagues around the cabinet table.

They are the ones who grossly overspent for the past three years and built their entire on spending plan on sources of cash which were, as Kennedy admits, beyond their control.

Sucks to be Jerome, evidently.  His little display in the House was a tell of the pressures he is evidently under. Gigantic pressures.  The kind of pressures that make the fictitious deficit from 2004 look like a dream compared to the real deficit coming next year, even after they've trimmed and shuffled and borrowed.

But since it will be the ordinary blokes in the province who will have to pay the price for other people's folly, Jerome's evident discomfort would be so cool if only it wasn't going to hurt us.

Ron Stoppable was a genius.

-srbp-

How NOT to get into cabinet

While sources told CBC News that MPs have been calling the premier to talk about the battle brewing in Ottawa and to get his opinion, a spokesperson for the premier's office said his government wouldn't be commenting on a constitutional issue.

Be the Liberal member(s) of parliament who couldn't fart without getting marching orders from "their premier".

-srbp-

Connies start to unravel

The coalition is ready to get down to work but it isn't in office yet.

There are a few hurdles to overcome.

Still, the fact that the opposition parties have been able to cement an agreement that would provide stable, progressive government for the country at a time of economic turmoil is a testament to the good will and the vision of the men and women elected just this past fall to the House of Commons.

They stand, as such, in stark contrast, to the federal Conservatives who have worked diligently over the past five years or so to foster every form of division within Canadian politics.

The signs of stress are showing in the Connie camp.

Their sock puppets and other assorted plants turned up on talk radio on Monday spouting the standard talking points.  Too bad they were all out of date and too bad that the efforts to open cracks or sow seeds of doubt aren't taking.

But what with all the back-pedaling and the fulminating against an approach Stephen Harper himself tried but couldn't deliver, you know the Conservatives didn't figure on this response to their miserable economic "update". 

A mystery web site pushing John Baird as an alternative is likely to open up any cracks inside the Conservatives. There's another one promoting Jim Prentice for the job once Harper is gone. Now it doesn't matter if this is a Conservative inside job or a pair of sites by Liberal or New Democrat operatives.

Either way it spells problems for the rank and file and hence for the Conservatives.  They've held on this long by tight internal discipline. These sites and the whole pressure of the gaffe from last week might be enough to distract the Conservatives.

Another sign of the problems within the federal Conservatives - or maybe a new problem would be the better term - can be found in the skullduggery of taping an opposition caucus meeting.  It's just another distasteful episode from a party that has, in cases like Grewahl, shown itself able to stoop pretty low in the quest for power. The NDP have called the Mounties but even if nothing comes of it, the whole episode just reminds Canadians of what kind of ethics the current federal government believes in.

No one supporting the coalition should count any chickens before they are hatched.  Now that they are in power the Conservatives will do just about anything to keep their fingers on the levers.  They've shown the depths they will sink to already.

But in the meantime, just watch the signs as they unravel.  They might just be in the early stages of spin from which they cannot recover.

-srbp-