Sketchy Jerome

Colleen Power’s latest.

Be warned:  Language and drug references.

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Kremlinology 16: Deep T'roat

Who is it?

The province's NTV station reported the news, but didn't reveal its source for that information.

That’s the second leak this week about the Premier’s health.


The first leak blew away whatever plan there was in the first place to keep Danny Williams’ health condition a complete secret from the general public. The reasons why they wanted to play it that way are irrelevant (although that’s what the plants will continue to harp on.)

The real mystery in all this is the identity of the person within the Premier’s circle who is following his or her own agenda.

Deputy premier Kathy Dunderdale can drone on and on with all the usual self-serving, sanctimonious crap she wants about the news media.

The truth is that unless someone very consciously and deliberately contacted NTV – and apparently only NTV -  no one would be any the wiser of where the Premier went and what happened while he was there.

Who is Deep T'roat?

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Vox Pops

An apparent member of the Fan Club – how typical is open to debate -  criticising the media for reporting on the Premier’s health problems, from a recent call to CBC Radio’s Cross Talk (02 Feb 10):

He doesn’t even take a salary… he’s done everything he can short of fixing the original problem [and] going back in time and taking Joey Smallwood out at birth…I think all news should be very much censored and what we see of it from a personal matter should be read on TV by Toni-Marie Wiseman in a bikini…

 

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And he will get mail, too

Geoff Meeker in the first of what looks like a series of posts over at The Telegram on the war being waged by the Danny Williams Fan Club on local news media.

If history is any guide, Geoff will get more than a few vicious e-mails of his own.

One can only imagine what attention Bob Wakeham is getting. 

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Rumpole and the Valentine’s Treat

The long-delayed Provincial Court appointments miraculously appeared on Thursday. They take effect the day after St. Valentine’s Day.

Lois Skanes, from the Premier’s old chambers on Duckworth Street, is going straight from her office to a plum seat on the bench in St. John’s without having to do any time at all dispensing justice in the nethermost reaches of the land.

Mike Madden, a St. John’s federal prosecutor, is headed to Suburbia in the Woods to assist One Judge Short in his labours.

Jackie Brazil – most recently seen in public carrying crappy briefs from her masters in cabinet to Madame Justice Cameron – will be sitting in Harbour Grace.

"If you're not receiving your instructions from Mr. Thompson [a former clerk of the Executive Council], then can you tell me whether or not your instructions come from the attorney general, for example[?]" Cameron [asked] Brazil.

After a lengthy pause, Brazil said only that she represented the government.

No word  - yet - on what happened to the fellow who was in Harbour Grace until now, former director of public prosecutions Colin Flynn.

Readers of these scribbles will note that there is no appointment to the bench in Grand Falls-Windsor.  That would be the one where Don Singleton was supposed to go as part of a rather curious little appointment daisy chain that ultimately led to Singleton withdrawing from the whole process. This tends to confirm the belief the appointment of a judge in GFW wasn’t necessary in the first place.

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Inside Knowledge

For those who may have missed it the first time, “Kremlinology 14:  Dead Caterpillars”.

For those who scoffed at the notion the first time the post appeared, notice how suddenly things start to fit together as other elements of the story emerge.

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Freedom from Information: The Two Connies

Not only do the federal and provincial Conservative parties in power have very similar attitudes toward the legislature, they also share a common disregard for public access to government information.

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What would Beaton do?

If you can’t build ‘em a greenhouse, then the next best thing for a government bereft of any ideas is create some government jobs handing out government cheques.

"Our government is committed to creating jobs in all regions of the province," said the Honourable Susan Sullivan, MHA for Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans. "The establishment of this new office in Central Newfoundland further emphasizes the commitment that has been made to support the residents living in this region."

The new office in Grand Falls-Windsor will employ 25 people sending cheques to people who are helping to save the race from extinction.  The office workers will also hand out money to help people pay their home heating bills.

The whole thing sounds awfully familiar.

Frighteningly familiar.

 

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Economic Recovery: Not exactly as illustrated

By definition, anyone connected to “economic development” in any provincial government or quasi-government organization must be so positive and upbeat as to make a Pollyanna look like someone about to climb into a warm bath and open a major artery or six.

That pretty much sums up the view in central Newfoundland where the regions major private sector employer is gone and there is nothing on the go even remotely as big:

"(If it was contrary to what businesses are reporting) you would see it in job losses, you would see it in lack of inventory," [Amy Coady-Davis, chair of the Grand Falls-Windsor town economic development committee] said.

"The turnover is there - it is right in front of your face. You can't fudge those numbers. Sales are up, they have said they're up, you can see that they are up."

Well, not exactly, at least if you judge by some numbers included the same Telegram article and which came from no less an authority than the town’s own economic development agency:

According to the economic development office in Grand Falls-Windsor, housing starts are down 50 per cent from 2008 - there were 118 units built then as compared to 53 units in 2009.

There you have it.

And if that wasn’t enough, consider the view from the local chamber of commerce:

Gerald Thompson, president of the Chamber of Commerce - which represents 209 businesses in Grand Falls-Windsor - tends to agree with the town's positive outlook.

He said they are getting far more positive feedback from members than negative.

"... Although there's been a number of small businesses that have closed in the last year, we still know that the people that have done business here in this valley, their percentages over last year are up.”

Of course, they are up. 

Some of the people who used to patronize those businesses that have closed up have moved their custom to the ones remaining.

And those companies that went out of business? 

Well, they aren’t members of the chamber of commerce any more – most likely – so their voices wouldn’t heard when the chamber does a survey of members.

Just to add to the whole surreal atmosphere of the article, don’t forget that the president of the chamber of commerce cited as proof of the great things the positive view from the people who build new homes.

Oh yeah.

Things are so great in that business people are building only half as many homes as they did in that artificial bubble the year after the mill closed.  That would be the year of severance cheques and all that extra, short-term cash.

What happens from this point onward will be entirely the result of whatever economic activity there is left now that the Abitibi mill’s corpse has stopped twitching.  Those who are tempted to look at places like Stephenville need to think again.  All those paper mill workers found other jobs, mostly in Alberta.  Those sorts of options don’t exist for the crew from Grand Falls-Windsor.

Nor is there a chance that the province’s remaining paper mill – there were three in 2003, incidentally – will take up any slack.  It is struggling to survive.  The company that runs the mill is reportedly looking for a 10% wage roll back from workers.

The professional pollyannas can be as bright-eyed and optimistic as the want.

The reality may well prove to be not exactly as illustrated.

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“And other media are now reporting…”

Add that one to your collection of great quotes that ring a little tinny.

The truth is that other media had the story first and were reporting all of it – including the American bit – before anyone else including the guy who said those immortal words.

That line is nothing however compared to this one from a Canadian Press story filed out of Halifax:

"I want to resist the temptation to say that somehow the political culture here is underdeveloped and people are all just dupes of this man. I refuse to entertain that kind of interpretation."

Yes, Michael Temelini is refusing to entertain the interpretation but apparently he is willing to buy it a few drinks and introduce it to some casual acquaintances.

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Negligent Discharge

The only way a Sig Sauer  - the standard side arm for the Royal Newfoundland Constabulary - could discharge a round is if there was one already in the chamber.

So a bullet that skips off the floor and lodges in a wall other than on the range?

Figure it out for yourself.

Incidentally, that’s why some organizations call it what it is - a negligent discharge -not an “accidental” one.

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NL economy to shrink by 4.5% in 2009: RBC

From the latest RBC Economics provincial outlook:

After suffering a significant setback in its resource sector in 2009, Newfoundland & Labrador’s economy is set to jump back into growth mode in 2010. Major declines in mining and crude oil production during the past year are expected to be largely reversed. Stronger global demand for iron ore and the eventual settlement of a labour dispute at the Voisey’s Bay nickel operations are forecast to
boost metal mining output and the imminent entry into service of the North Amethyst satellite field — an expansion to White Rose — will provide a temporary lift to offshore oil production. This positive swing in a sector that represents approximately 30% of real GDP in the province will once more be the dominant factor in overall growth in 2010, contributing more than one percentage point to output. We forecast real GDP growth at 2.4%, revised up from 2% in September, and a 1.5% increase in 2011. In 2009, the slump in mining and oil
and gas extraction is likely to lop off more than six percentage points from real GDP growth, which has been revised lower to -4.5% to reflect longer-than anticipated mining operation shutdowns.

That forecast 2.4% growth in gross domestic product for 2010 puts the province in the middle of the pack among the other provinces.

Talk about a slender reed:  it is based entirely on production from the White Rose expansion.

Real growth in 2011 is positively anaemic at 1.5%.  That’s the lowest of any province.

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Delusion or Disconnect? Overtime

“The Williams Government has been unwavering in its commitment to managing provincial programs, services and financial resources in a responsible and prudent manner.”

and

“Sound governance and responsible management have been the cornerstones of how our government runs the affairs of the province and administers programs and services to meet the needs of our residents."

Sure.

That’s easy enough to write in a release, but it sure doesn’t hold up to scrutiny. 

Take, for example, the issue of overtime which led off pretty well every conventional news story on the Auditor General’s report released last week.

The coverage and commentary thus far took cues from the Auditor general and focused on some fairly simple and obvious points. Overtime both in its paid and time-off varieties has mushroomed  - up 55% - since 2001.

That’s despite the work of a committee struck in 2001 to come up with ways of controlling overtime. The climb has been steepest since 2004 when the current crowd of sound fiscal managers took over and started spending public cash in what Paul Oram and other cabinet ministers have described since as an unsustainable manner. 

The official response: these people are making way more money than before, there may be problems recruiting in some cases and the work demands for public safety all may make it necessary to run up the over-time bill.

That first one would matter if the amount was the concern. 

It really isn’t, though, if you look beyond the simplistic stuff the AG fixated on and look at the rates of change for specific departments.  It’s easy to focus on  Works and Transportation but the change in overtime paid out has actually been relatively modest.  It’s gone from $9.3 million to about $11.9 million in a little less than a decade.

But what about Executive Council and Finance?

The numbers there show stunning increases:  from $74,000 to $602,000 in Finance and comparable jumps – on the order of nine or 10 percent  - in Executive Council. The explanations offered for the transportation or Justice departments’ overtime expenses just don’t apply here.

They also don’t fit with the pattern for most of the departments listed on page 12 of that section of the AG report.  The changes, over time, just don’t match that rate of increase.  Even in Justice, the overtime paid out in 2008 is only slightly less than three times higher than that paid in 2000. That’s bigger than it should be but the amount is potentially justified – pardon the pun – if there are issues of staffing or public safety involved in some years.

The sort of comparison done here – as relatively unsophisticated as it is – just can’t be found in the AG report.  There is much talk of amounts and the shares of the total held by one department or another.  But at no point does the AG zero in on the departments which seem to have some fairly obvious problems and ones that have – on the face of it – much more significant implications for management or the manageability of the problem.

If a department has a fairly consistent amount of overtime, then that’s one thing.  But if the amount starts small and then grows exponentially?  Well, that suggests there are people problems or an organizational problem that needs to be addressed with something more substantial than the “keep an eye on things” advice coming from the AG report.

You might forgive the Auditor General for the simplistic approach to this issue taken in the report if the amount of overtime accumulated through the “time-off in lieu of” system  - called TOIL - wasn’t equally as dramatic as the paid overtime in a couple of cases as well.

That chart isn’t distorted.  Finance went from a TOIL of $68,000 in Fiscal Year 2000 to almost $1.1 million in FY 2008. Justice numbers are about the same.  TOIL is time off in lieu of overtime.

What makes these numbers stand out all the more is the comparison with departments where you might expect the overtime bill to be huge. 

Take Health, for example.  Big department.  Plenty of demands.  However, both the TOIL and paid overtime costs in the study period remained about what they were before.  Now the paid overtime numbers for Health fluctuated wildly over time, but they did not experience the sort of dramatic sweep upward seen with the departments noted here.  And in the case of TOIL, the Health tally was about $27,000 for 2008 compared to $25,000 about a decade ago.

It would take way more information that the AG makes available to figure out why these three departments are experiencing the rather dramatic changes in overtime over time.  As a result, it would be hard to say what is causing the problems and therefore make some useful suggestions on how to fix things. 

One thing that is for certain, the AG report makes some pretty lame recommendations that don’t really amount to much.  Tracking the overtime and making sure it is warranted both count as penetrating insights into the managerially obvious and they are about as useless an exercise as faking your own recommendations.

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Skywatch 2010: The Marystown Video

Courtesy of Glen Carter at NTV News:  First Edition, here is a screen cap from the Marystown video taken on the same Monday evening people saw unidentified flying objects near Harbour Mille.

1.  The contrails are plainly visible and have both the reddish and the dark characteristics seen in the image from Harbour Mille.

2.  The aircraft making the contrails is plainly visible in one portion of the video.  It is a twin-engined commercial jet – similar to an Airbus A310/A320 or an Embraer 190 -of the type that routinely fly in that area on the way to and from St. John’s.

3.   The multi-coloured splotch on the right side of the picture is either sun glinting off the airframe or a strobe light on the aircraft.  Remember that this is essentially a single “frame” of the video.  There may well be things in the shot that wouldn’t be as prominent in the full video.

4.  The angle of this shot is somewhat unusual.  It appears the aircraft flew directly over the shooter and in this particular shot is proceeding away from the camera.  The camera also appears to be max’ed out on zoom.  In the video, the aircraft is seldom if ever steady in the centre of the frame.

5.  While it isn’t quite so clear in this shot, there is a gap between the back end of the engine and the start of the contrail.

Flightaware.com Update: 

flightaware.com is a great resource.  Here’s a screen cap taken – as the time stamp shows at about 1800 hrs local or 2130 Zulu.  That would be 6:00PM to normal people.

The red dot is about where Harbour Mille would be on this crude map.  The blue track is the official flight path for Air Canada’s flight 695, an Embraer 190 run from St. John’s (YYT) to Pearson (YYZ) with a stop at Halifax along the way.  The yellow line is the actual track as it showed up on flightaware.com.  Allow for inaccuracy given the crude nature of the map.

It was an airplane folks.

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Delusion or Disconnect? Managing public land

 

The news release issued from the provincial finance department in response to the latest report by the Auditor General.

“The Williams Government has been unwavering in its commitment to managing provincial programs, services and financial resources in a responsible and prudent manner.”

and

“Sound governance and responsible management have been the cornerstones of how our government runs the affairs of the province and administers programs and services to meet the needs of our residents."

The Auditor General’s latest report on how the provincial government is managing your money:

Part 2.4:  Managing Crown Land.  There are an estimated 9,000 squatters occupying Crown land illegally but there is no regular program of inspection and enforcement to deal with the problem.

There is no inspection of shoreline Crown land to deal with squatting or any other aspect of land management. 

There is also no inspection program for leased or licensed land to ensure the rules are being followed and taxpayer interest  is protected.

Best example of the impact of the failure:  Humber Valley Resort.  There was no inspection at all until the AG started poking around eight years after the Crown lased the first block of land to the now bankrupt resort.

The Branch did not obtain a purchase and sale agreement that was signed by the Corporation and the chalet lot purchaser indicating an agreed upon purchase price, and did not determine the fair market value of the chalet lots in relation to the purchase price as required under the lease. As a result, the Branch could not demonstrate whether the 6% market value premiums paid by the Corporation were appropriate. [Emphasis added]

In other words, the Crown just accepted whatever the resort sent in a cheque without knowing what the sale price of the chalet involved actually was.

The Branch received market value premiums totalling $2.2 million or an average of $31,460 per chalet lot. The Corporation, upon sale of the chalet lots, would have received a total of $37.2 million or an average of $524,390 per chalet lot. As of September 2008, when the Corporation sought bankruptcy protection, the Branch had received three of the five annual lease payments totalling $3.8 million of the total $6.4 million in payments due over the term of the lease.

And when it comes to strategies and plans, the story isn’t any better:

Branch officials could not demonstrate whether the Geomatics
Strategy Implementation Plan developed in 1999 was ever reviewed
and approved by the Steering Committee or presented to Government
for final approval. Furthermore, there has been no meeting of the
Steering Committee since approximately the year 2000 and the Lands
Branch makes no formal reference to the plan.

The government response, in the order presented in the report:

The Department will determine whether the Geomatics Strategy
Implementation Plan was approved by Government.

The Department will review the relevance of the Geomatics Strategy
Implementation Plan.

In every other point, the department acknowledge the AG had stated departmental policy correctly.  Implicitly that’s an admission the department was not following its own policy.

At all.

Period.

For over a decade.

And that’s despite the fact that since 2003  - in other words for the past seven years – “[s]ound governance and responsible management have been the cornerstones of how our government runs the affairs of the province…”.

Unfortunately, most people in the province probably heard about or read the government news release  - with its obvious falsehood – rather than the frank acknowledgement by the lands department that it was in the process of sorting out the mess.

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Pick a position, any position

Over at nottawa, Mark draws attention to the most recent provincial government position on the federal shares in Hibernia, namely that the provincial government would be willing to pay cash for them.

This, Mark notes, is in stark contrast to the government’s original position, which he cites in a letter dated in 2008.

And indeed it is.

Like Sands Through the Hour Glass…

But in 2005, the provincial government’s letter to Santa put it differently:

The paragraph preceding that specific question puts some other colour in it.  The provincial government recognizes that the federal government had recovered its initial investment.  The provincial government expected anything beyond that to accrue to the provincial government.

But that question refers to the whole silly business of being “kept whole”.  In effect, such a phrase commits the province to ensuring the federal government recovers not only its investment but what they anticipated getting back as well.  it’s a bit of a nebulous idea but there should be no doubt about it:  If the reserves have grown  - as expected - and the potential federal return on investment has grown – as expected – the the question actually lays claim to zilch.

And as a consequence there wouldn’t be any purchase of shares.  Indeed, there would be no claim to the shares in the first place.

… so shifts the Demand of the Day

Now the rather quaint convention of meaning what you say and saying what you mean has always been no never mind for the current provincial administration.  Take for example, the varying positions on Equalization. One day the provincial government wanted 100% inclusion of natural resources revenues.  The next day, it demanded 100% exclusion.  One November, it was great to province that was not getting any Equalization.  Two months later, not getting hundreds of millions in Equalization that year and the year after was a betrayal of historic proportions.

Or for that matter the political racket that wound up with the one-time transfer of federal cash to the provincial government.  The provincial government’s initial position would have produced that single amount in one year.  Ultimately they caved and said yes to way less than they originally demanded.

Whatever position the government took before or takes now actually doesn’t really mean very much of anything at all. 

So right now there’s talk of paying cash for the shares.

What comes out the other end of the process – if anything comes out at all – may wind up looking a lot different from whatever has been said or written until now.

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Russia tests next-gen fighter

Russian aircraft design bureau Sukhoi tested its next generation fighter on Friday.

The aircraft – designated T-50 – flew for 47 minutes at Sukhoi’s test facility at Komsomolsk on Amur.

The T-50 is a joint Russian-Indian project.  India currently operates the latest Russian designed fighter and ground-attack jets as well as Russian-built helicopters, tanks and other military equipment.

The T-50 is similar in design to the United States Air Force’s F-22 Raptor which combines supersonic speed and high performance with low-observable or “stealth” capability. Ria Novosti’s defence analyst gives the aircraft’s design history in a story posted online on January 29.  Ilya Kramnik claims the design efforts for the so-called fifth generation fighter began in the 1980s and ultimately led to the Su-47.

While highly capable, the Su-47 used a forward-swept wing design which may have caused some performance and maintenance concern among the fighter’s intended users.

According to Kramnik, the current fighter comes from a 1998 request from the Russian air force for a new fighter that took advantage of the design features of the prototypes in the American next-generation fighter competition that led ultimately to the Raptor.

The T-50 in the test photographs appears to be unpainted.  It also appears to be using conventional nozzles instead of the vectoring type deployed on both the F-22 and on some other Sukhoi and MiG fighter designs which flew successfully.

In the video at left, a MiG-29 test aircraft demonstrates thrust vectoring. 

The moveable engine nozzles pivot to aim the engine thrust at up to 15 degrees from straight backwards. 

On two-engined aircraft, the nozzles may also be moved independently of one another.

This allows the aircraft to turn more tightly than a conventional aircraft.  Such a capability gives fighter pilots great advantage in dog-fighting.

In this video, a pilot demonstrates the thrust vector nozzles on a Raptor.

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Skywatch 2010: NTV has the proof

A viewer from Marystown sent NTV News some video footage shot on Monday evening that pretty much nails down the identification of the mysterious objects in the sky.

The mighty Ceeb can continue to ignore the obvious: there were no time-traveling missiles from France, there guys.

NTV has the truth:  a fairly good video of at least one twin-engined commercial jet – it might have been an Airbus A320  - cruising along and streaming out the contrails looking almost exactly the like the one in the photo displayed by CBC.

All that does is raise more questions about the CBC photo itself, but there can be no mistaking what was flying in the skies over Harbour Mille last Monday.  It was a flock of three aircraft – likely all commercial jets -  flying the usual route for aircraft coming from from Halifax and the eastern seaboard, potentially into St. John’s.

And for all those intrepid reporters busily scurrying around like this was a national security issue, here’s a simple and fairly obvious question.  Since even a missile would have turned up on radar, did anyone think to call those lovely folks at the Gander control tower to see what might have been flying along the south coast last Monday?

Beuhler?

Beuhler?

Didn’t think so.

Next time, though, people might go for the more obvious answer rather than leaping to all sorts of speculation and rumour for their answers.

After all, when you hear hoof-beats in this part of the world it is more sensible to think “horses” than an Eohippus that escaped from that mysterious experimental farm on the Bauline Line run by some fellow Hammond.

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By-election spec starts early

Beth Marshall’s elevation to the Antechamber to the Kingdom of Heaven started the inevitable by-election speculation almost immediately.

One will have to be called within 60 days of Marshall vacating the seat.  Under local election laws, that means that people can start looking for special ballots today.

Odds are it will be called immediately after the Olympics are over.  The provincial government has popped for too many tickets to make everyone – the Premier included – cancel their trip to wet coast in order to stay home and fight a by-election.

The thing will be knocked off as quick as you please so the new member can sit in the spring session of the legislature.

And who might that member be?

Well, on the Conservative side, the name of failed paradise mayoral candidate Kurtis Coombs has popped up right away.  Let’s just say he has a certain Kent-like cache to him right at the moment that might appeal to party leaders of a certain style.

Beth’s constituency assistant would be a logical choice as well since the provincial Conservatives seem to be in that phase where the most likely candidates come from political staff.  But maybe not since Beth is likely to be moving her crew to the federal payroll. 

That leads very quickly back to young Mr. Coombs.

Look for that name to come up more and more in the next few days.

On the Liberal side, people will likely cycle through some of the usual names.  There won’t be too many people from the metro area who are likely to come forward.

Peter Dawe is already being courted to sub for Paul Antle in St. John’s East federally next time so take them both off your list.

Jim Walsh has a previous engagement so he won’t be staging a political comeback soon.

Ralph Wiseman?

Way outside chance, but then again, your humble e-scribbler didn’t call Beth right for the senate seat.

Those are just the early names.  More are sure to turn up as the date for the by-election call gets closer.

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And the cliche gets it…

Senator Beth Marshall.

Here’s the view from January 19:

Beth Marshall would be too obvious just because all the spec puts her name up right next to the two Loyolas.  She’s at the point now where her name is on everyone’s list of nominees for everything. Watch out if the Pope drops dead tomorrow.  Local spec will have Beth in the running right behind the two Loyolas;  it’s gotten to be that much of a cliche.

An interesting choice if one that is remarkable for how cliche it really is.

Others have already pointed out that Marshall very publicly declined to join the ABC silliness. That obviously stood her in good stead for this plum.

Others, however, have also over-estimated her lack of connections to the local provincial Conservatives and how this might not help improve relations between the federal Connies and their provincial cousins.  Bear in mind she was handed the plum of over-seeing implementation of the Green report and has been a faithful party player on the House of Assembly management committee.

She’s tight enough with both the federal and provincial crews to serve as a bridge. And it’s not like she hasn’t got experience in changing her tune when it serves her partisan purpose as well.

Don’t be surprised if she goes to cabinet in short order or otherwise gets a neat job to facilitate the rapprochement. The anti-Ottawa hysteria that once was the local Connie stock-in-trade will quickly be a thing of the past.

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