A fraudster (allegedly) by any other accent

A member of parliament facing fraud charges in the Whitehall spending scandal tries gamely but lamely to defend himself on national television.

Just remember:  people elected this guy to vote on what the rules would be for everyone else.

Warning:  This video contains scenes of incredible stupidity that may strike some viewers as awfully bloody familiar.

h/t Guido.

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Kremlinology 16 (Update): Deep T’roat

This is more like a blast from the past but it is curious artefact in light of recent events.

From December 2007, a comment by then-fish minister Loyola Hearn on the sour relationship between the crowd of Conservatives in Sin Jawns and the crowd of Conservatives in Ottawa:

"There are times I'm sure I know as much as what's going on in cabinet and caucus or on the eighth floor as the premier does," said Hearn, referring to Williams's office in Confederation Building in St. John's.

"I always do. That's why we can always be one step ahead of him," Hearn said in a year-end interview with CBC News. "I have friends throughout cabinet and caucus."

That doesn’t mean Loyola is Deep T’roat. What it shows is that the idea is already there of some measure of tension and dissent within Conservative circles.

At the time, Danny Williams dismissed the idea [of traitorous dissent within the ranks] with characteristic bluster. The faithful deployed, too, with their now-signature set of over-the-top messages, delivered in one example by permits and licenses minister Kevin O’Brien.

But still, that didn’t stop Hisself from demanding every member of his caucus swear a sort of loyalty oath during the 2008 federal election and the Family Feud that caused massive discontent within the party.  That was about 10 months after Hisself dismissed the whole of idea of loose caucus and cabinet lips in the first place and, on a go forward basis it seemed to telegraph a huge level of unease or uncertainty.

After all, if their loyalty was unquestionable – the essence of the December claim – then it seems odd to question it at all let alone in a way which someone leaked to the local media. Beth Marshall – now a senator – is the only one who said she wouldn’t support the anti- federal campaign.

Contacted by The Telegram via e-mail at the time, only six Conservatives would give an answer publicly.  The rest of the Tory caucus ignored it, apparently, although the Telegram piece does end with an interesting reference:

Outgoing federal cabinet minister Loyola Hearn has charged that the premier's office is threatening those who may aid the federal Conservatives, citing "a growing number of calls we have received from concerned caucus members and Progressive Conservative staffers."

Williams has denied the allegation.

You see, it is interesting because it matches up with what was going around the local Tory circles at the time.  There were a great many, for example, in St. John’s South-Mount Pearl who were extremely upset that Kathy Dunderdale, Paul Oram and other prominent local Tories were out door-knocking for the Liberal in the riding.

The idea of friction within the provincial Conservative camp isn’t new.  Some of it has been known to flare up in public.  And in 2008, don’t forget, St. John’s South is where the Tory vote didn’t stay home like it did in other ridings.  By all appearances and indications, a goodly chunk of the Conservative vote did head to the polls.  And voted overwhelmingly for the Orange candidate.

That definitely was not the officially sanctioned Family Feud choice.

10 years is a long time to crush every bit of difference and ambition in a crowd of ambitious political types.  A decade is a long time to demand unquestioning obedience or face the consequences of cashiering or a miserable seat.

And even if that weren’t true, there is still the fairly obvious unease resulting from both the by-election loss last fall and the fairly obvious fact the win in the other seat required every member of caucus and a whole lot of political staffers in order to hang onto what should have been a safe seat and an easy win.

“Atrophy” was one word used privately by someone who ought to know in order to describe what has happened to the district-level party machinery across the province.

There’s something to be said for that.  It’s pretty bizarre to shut down a government for a couple of months to fight two by-elections.  Historically in this province, incumbent parties can usually manage to walk and chew electoral gum simultaneously.  Work gets delegated and the Leader/Premier and senior cabinet get deployed only as needed.

And it’s not like Hisself didn’t say loudly and clearly and repeatedly in 2006 – although it seemed like everyone missed it – that he wouldn’t be hanging around for the Hat Trick.

10 years is a long time in politics anywhere.

And it’s a long time for people to be studying how things work in practice.  Size up the strengths and weaknesses.

And then lay in wait to take advantage of a golden opportunity.

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The Screaming of the Banshees

This week Newfoundlanders and Labradorians found themselves embroiled in yet another political psychodrama in the endless series of psychodramas that are Newfoundland politics these days.

The members of the Fan Club -  the Cult of Personality - deployed, en masse, over the past couple of days all screeching the same tune of self-righteous indignation at that favourite target of the political right, the news media.

They started on Day One with a strike at Ramona Deering and John Soper in CBC radio’s lunchtime phone-in show.  Now there are two things to note here.  First of all, the show has ratings which – to be truthful – are nothing to write home about. This is not an opinion-driver of a show by any stretch.

The usual sort of call-in fare would be the show on Tuesday, the one pre-empted by the Premier’s health crisis.  It was about the challenges and choices for women in changing their name after they marry.  Not an insignificant topic, but not exactly one to raise the blood-pressure either or suddenly cause an outbreak of the vapours in Botwood.

Second of all, the topic for the show gave callers a chance to express publicly their concern for the Premier's health.

And do that they did.  Caller One.  Then Caller Two  - the now well-known Minnie, she of her own considerable medical burden and ardent admirer of the Premier - and then Three and then Four.  All as respectful and as courteous as the two hosts, both of whom – incidentally – are well known for their professional and sedate demeanour.

And then the fan-blades started spitting the crap.

Caller after caller and e-mailers to boot all lambasting the Ceeb for having the gall to invade the premier’s privacy by discussing the fact he had a health care problem in the first place.  What other people said didn’t matter;  these people were angry that “it” was being discussed at all.  They all used similar words and generally expressed similar sentiments in such a way that made it unmistakeable that every single one of them had been organized into some sort of vox putz.

One thought there should censorship of everything anyway. Another said  – with absolutely no sense of irony  - that there was too much focus on personality these days.  What should be reported was somewhere between nothing and what we see today.  Do not merely accept this characterisation of the show.  Listen for yourself.

What made the calls after Number Four stand out is that they all said the same thing, in so many words, and, what they said bore no resemblance in any way to what had actually been said by anyone else.

Incidentally, the only thing more amazing than the heaps of scorn these planted callers piled on the media in general is that so many people at the Ceeb still don’t seem to realise they were apparently the victims of a concerted attack.

The meek at the Ceeb aren’t the only ones to inherit a biblical whirlwind of vengeance from the local personality cultists.

Charter Fan Club member and alleged positive thinker Dave Rudofsky made at least one call  - to the drive-time show – to spew an amazing lot of negativity in curiously familiar words about something heard on the Morning Show from former CBC television producer Bob Wakeham.  Unconfirmed reports, by the by, have it that Wakeham’s temerity in mentioning a certain subject right up at the top of the cult’s extensive AbsolutVerboteneliste prompted a torrent of bile aimed solely at him via the Mother Corp’s local e-mail and telephones.

So intense is the anger among the Fanboys and Fangirls that even The Voice of The Cabinet Minister has been getting a heaping of orchestrated outrage and concern.  In the afternoon slot at the semi-official government information dispensary, Our Man in a Blue Line Cab: The Original Series found other things to talk about so  for the most part Lord Haw Haw of Hy’s has been relatively unscathed.

Not so Randy Simms.

Simms has been subjected to the barrage e-mails and telephone calls intended  - as with all the calls, e-mails and comments to and about local media – to bully him into silence.  The whole thing got so intense so quickly that by the end of the Wednesday show, Simms politely told the lot of them to shag off and just stop listening.

The most startling expression of the cultish line came bright and early the next day from none other than the guy who runs The Voice.  Broadcaster John Steele – also a cabinet appointee to look after those precious government oil stakes, by the way - shat on broadcasters for reporting stuff so that other people might know it.

Simms - a Williams target of old - handled him deftly and with undeserved restraint.  Simms posed a few simple questions to his boss which left Steele rather obviously stuck for an intelligent response.  He fell back on the talking points.

Now if the Premier and his associates genuinely didn’t want any attention drawn to his personal health problems, then they went about handling this in a way that seemed calculated to generate the maximum amount of attention and controversy. A number of news media editorials and comments – including ones from Simms – have noted this.

On the other hand, if they wanted to generate international media attention for some unfathomable and insane reason, then the way they handled this only guaranteed the story rapidly became a firestorm over which the people at the centre had no influence whatsoever. That is simply the way the world is these days;  to decry it is to waste energy complaining that dogs bark or that the sky is blue.

But if either secrecy or adoration was the objective, the media line fixed on Day One wouldn’t be to send out any and all Blue Dart Irregulars to pummel anyone who mentioned heart or surgery in a public forum.

Go back to that CBC Cross Talk and you can see exactly the point:  a respectful show in which the first four callers expressed nothing but concern for the Premier’s health followed by a string of pompous negativity from a bunch of planted callers.

Simply put, the two things don’t fit together at all.

What the people of Newfoundland and Labrador have seen the past few days, though, is not the product of any deep thoughts.  There are no complex plans at work.  There is nothing more substantive than what the legion of fanboys have consistently brought to politics over the past decade or so.

What there has been is what last fall’s political crisis brought:  fear and insecurity.

There was plenty to be jittery about.

Most obviously, someone with some pretty good inside information opted to bust the whole thing wide open.

On the face of it, it seems that those in the know hoped to scoot the Premier out of the country for one of his now legendary holidays this time of year.  If it had worked, the job would have been done and no one would have been any the wiser.

But that isn’t what happened.

First there was the leak to NTV – and not CBC – about the trip and the surgery in the first place.  Then a couple of days later, there was the leak about the date of the Premier’s surgery.

Bits and pieces of a story are now floating all over town but the sources are never traceable.  Make no mistake though:  the stories have – at their heart – some kernel of truth, some nub of authenticity which suggests that someone in the know is very consciously dripping information out.

What makes that all the more striking is that this was a story access to which was very tightly controlled.  
Even the provincial Conservative caucus didn’t hear about it until the day after the story hit the news.

Take a look at Kathy Dunderdale on Tuesday and you can see pure stress. The panicked look on the deputy premier’s face during the briefing told you the scrum was not not part of any plan. Gone was her usual – and always unjustified -  smug demeanour,  replaced by something that spoke of tension.  Her angst wasn’t caused by the nature of the news she was discussing. Something else was clearly bothering her as she delivered an ersatz Plan B to replace the Plan A that someone had blown to smithereens the night before.

The aggressiveness and bullying of the cult telegraphs their fear.  It’s like their reaction to the political turmoil last fall.

Some wag said this week that the Tory caucus Tuesday morning was  - like all caucuses faced with such news - likely made up of two crowds.  There were the rabbits huddled in the corner, shivering.  Those are the ones who took to the airwaves and helped bring out the other fanboys.

And there were others looking to capitalize on things if not now, then down the road a ways.

Like say the one(s) who spilled the beans to NTV.

Likely they can see how times are changing across the province, how things are just a wee bit closer to normal, how the same old schtick just doesn’t work any more.

They can hear that the tune from the cult now sounds less and less like hymns of praise and glory and more and more like keening.

Even the banshees themselves know  - in the dark places in their hearts where they are afraid to go - they know what their screeching means.

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Another view on The Big Story

This time from Andrew Coyne at macleans.ca who sparked a rather interesting series of comments on how the media has or has not been covering the story which has the local personality cultists in such a snit:

Ever since Danny Williams was revealed to have been seeking treatment for a heart ailment across the border, the media have been observing a strange and uncomfortable silence about the matter.

On one hand, this reticence is commendable. Williams’s [sic] preference in health care is nobody’s business, and should remain, as far as possible, a private matter between him and his God. Though some claim this is a lifestyle choice, it’s far more likely that it is a result of something beyond his control. As such, it is not a fit matter for public commentary.

But once the story has, by one means or another, entered the public domain, that puts a different colour on it. At that point, the media are not just declining to report on something: they are actively colluding in a fiction. The issue is no longer Williams’s [sic] medical inclination. It’s the media’s refusal to acknowledge reality

On a day when Jack Layton announced that he is being treated for prostate cancer and labradore reposted a block of news stories and three official news releases from a previous trip Danny Williams took to the hospital,  it all adds to the views worth considering.

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Taxpayers shafted

On February 2, Abitibi notified the provincial government that the company vacated the only properties the provincial government didn’t expropriate in December 2008.

As a result, the taxpayers of Newfoundland and Labrador are entirely responsible for cleaning up whatever environmental mess may be attached to the century old facility.

There is no word on how big the problems at the old paper mill are or how much it will cost taxpayers to clean it up.

The official government release on the development is a masterpiece of uncommunication from a department – natural resources – that has become legendary for its practice of the dark art of misinformation. 

There is even a complete contradiction in the claim at the front – namely that the provincial government is now responsible for the sit in every respect and a statement at the back that Abitibi is still liable.

This is the third financial shaft to be felt by taxpayers resulting from the 2008 expropriation.  The first is the yet-unresolved bill for the expropriation itself.  The second is the voluntary payment by the provincial government of money owed by the company.

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Health care and a politician’s privacy

Now:

The Premier, as well as every one of the rest of us, has a right to privacy.

and

"You forgo a lot of privacy when you put your hand up to do this job but there are certain areas of your life that are sacrosanct," [Deputy Premier Kathy Dunderdale]  said.

but back then?

Well, let’s just say things were different.

Extremely different.

One example, an official news release:

Williams provides update on medical condition

ST. JOHN'S, May 20, 2003 — Danny Williams, Leader of the Opposition and MHA for Humber West, today provided an update on his medical condition. Williams was admitted to hospital on Wednesday, May 13, suffering from severe back pain. He was permitted to leave the hospital over the weekend while his physicians awaited the results of medical tests. However, his mobility was severely limited.

"The physicians and staff of St. Clare's have conducted tests to determine what is causing the pain. They believe it is the result of inflamed tissue in my back. Tomorrow, [May 21, 2003] they will perform back surgery to try and alleviate the pain," Williams said.

While recovery time will depend upon the extent and nature of the surgery, Williams' back problem is not expected to have a long-term impact on his political career. "I expect a full recovery and look forward to serving the people of Newfoundland and Labrador for many years to come. However, any type of surgery and subsequent recovery should be treated very seriously. I will follow the instructions of my doctor with regards to recovery time and physical activity and won't do anything to compromise my long-term health and well-being.

"I respectfully ask for the people of Newfoundland and Labrador to be understanding of the fact that I will be temporarily out of the office while this back problem is being addressed. However, I am in regular contact with my staff and caucus and am still able to perform my duties as the MHA for Humber West, Leader of the Opposition and Leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Newfoundland and Labrador.

"I want to thank the staff at St. Clare’s for their first-rate care and medical treatment. They have been extremely professional and I am very appreciative of their efforts. I would also like to thank all the people who have left messages of support. My family and I take great comfort in knowing that so many people are thinking of us."

Followed by another:

Williams undergoes successful back surgery

ST. JOHN'S, May 21, 2003 — Danny Williams, Leader of the Opposition and MHA for Humber West, today underwent successful surgery to alleviate severe back pain. Williams was admitted to hospital on Wednesday, May 14, and is expected to remain there for several days as part of his recovery.

During the complicated operation, which lasted more than two hours, doctors removed a mass of tissue from his back that was believed to be the source of his pain. As a standard precautionary procedure, this tissue will be analyzed over the next 48 hours. Williams is now fully conscious and resting in hospital with his family.

While Mr. Williams is expected to make a complete recovery, his physicians will work with him over the coming days to develop a comprehensive rehabilitation program. That rehabilitation program will determine when he is able to return to the office and resume his provincial tour schedule. In the interim, he continues to be in regular contact with his staff and caucus.

"I ask people to understand that while I may not be able to travel throughout the province in the short term, I will continue to fully discharge my duties as MHA for Humber West, Leader of the Opposition and Leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Newfoundland and Labrador. I will do everything possible to work with my doctors to expedite my rehabilitation program and I look forward to a complete and prompt recovery," Williams said.

The Williams family would like to sincerely thank the physicians and staff at St. Clare's for their professional care and treatment. They would also like to thank the countless people who have sent messages of support and encouragement. The family is truly touched by such a wonderful outpouring of emotion.

And then another…

Williams receives excellent prognosis for recovery

ST. JOHN'S, May 26, 2003 — Danny Williams, Leader of the Opposition and MHA for Humber West, today provided an update on his medical condition. Williams was admitted to St. Clare's Emergency Department Wednesday, May 14, and underwent surgery Wednesday, May 21, to alleviate severe pain that was being caused by a mass of tissue in his back.

"My physicians are very pleased with the surgery and expect me to make a full recovery. In fact, I am already able to take short walks in the hospital. All tests to date have been completed and the results were extremely favourable. Doctors say that I am making excellent and steady progress, but given the nature of the surgery, complete recovery could take upwards of six weeks. They have developed a rehabilitation program that involves rest, appropriate physical exercise and physiotherapy. I will strictly adhere to that program and will do everything possible to expedite my recovery," Williams said.
As a result of the surgery, Williams is experiencing normal post-operative pain. He is continuing to receive medical treatment in hospital and is being re-evaluated on a day-to-day basis to determine an appropriate discharge date.

"Given that physicians are advising me not to travel in the immediate future, I will be asking a number of our MHAs to represent me and the party at various functions throughout the province. With the exception of travel, I expect to be able to conduct all of my duties as Leader of the Opposition, MHA for Humber West and Leader of the PC Party of Newfoundland and Labrador while working from my office at home."

Williams once again thanked the physicians and staff of St. Clare's for their outstanding medical care. "I don't think a person can truly appreciate the remarkable efforts put forward by our health care workers until they are able to experience it first hand. These dedicated professionals work very hard to provide quality care to their patients. My family and I are very grateful for their efforts. We would also like to thank the thousands of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians who have called or sent cards with their support. Such kind gestures will never be forgotten."

There is no record that the premier’s personality cult voiced any objections to these news releases or the subsequent news coverage.

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Sketchy Jerome

Colleen Power’s latest.

Be warned:  Language and drug references.

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Kremlinology 16: Deep T'roat

Who is it?

The province's NTV station reported the news, but didn't reveal its source for that information.

That’s the second leak this week about the Premier’s health.


The first leak blew away whatever plan there was in the first place to keep Danny Williams’ health condition a complete secret from the general public. The reasons why they wanted to play it that way are irrelevant (although that’s what the plants will continue to harp on.)

The real mystery in all this is the identity of the person within the Premier’s circle who is following his or her own agenda.

Deputy premier Kathy Dunderdale can drone on and on with all the usual self-serving, sanctimonious crap she wants about the news media.

The truth is that unless someone very consciously and deliberately contacted NTV – and apparently only NTV -  no one would be any the wiser of where the Premier went and what happened while he was there.

Who is Deep T'roat?

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Vox Pops

An apparent member of the Fan Club – how typical is open to debate -  criticising the media for reporting on the Premier’s health problems, from a recent call to CBC Radio’s Cross Talk (02 Feb 10):

He doesn’t even take a salary… he’s done everything he can short of fixing the original problem [and] going back in time and taking Joey Smallwood out at birth…I think all news should be very much censored and what we see of it from a personal matter should be read on TV by Toni-Marie Wiseman in a bikini…

 

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And he will get mail, too

Geoff Meeker in the first of what looks like a series of posts over at The Telegram on the war being waged by the Danny Williams Fan Club on local news media.

If history is any guide, Geoff will get more than a few vicious e-mails of his own.

One can only imagine what attention Bob Wakeham is getting. 

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Rumpole and the Valentine’s Treat

The long-delayed Provincial Court appointments miraculously appeared on Thursday. They take effect the day after St. Valentine’s Day.

Lois Skanes, from the Premier’s old chambers on Duckworth Street, is going straight from her office to a plum seat on the bench in St. John’s without having to do any time at all dispensing justice in the nethermost reaches of the land.

Mike Madden, a St. John’s federal prosecutor, is headed to Suburbia in the Woods to assist One Judge Short in his labours.

Jackie Brazil – most recently seen in public carrying crappy briefs from her masters in cabinet to Madame Justice Cameron – will be sitting in Harbour Grace.

"If you're not receiving your instructions from Mr. Thompson [a former clerk of the Executive Council], then can you tell me whether or not your instructions come from the attorney general, for example[?]" Cameron [asked] Brazil.

After a lengthy pause, Brazil said only that she represented the government.

No word  - yet - on what happened to the fellow who was in Harbour Grace until now, former director of public prosecutions Colin Flynn.

Readers of these scribbles will note that there is no appointment to the bench in Grand Falls-Windsor.  That would be the one where Don Singleton was supposed to go as part of a rather curious little appointment daisy chain that ultimately led to Singleton withdrawing from the whole process. This tends to confirm the belief the appointment of a judge in GFW wasn’t necessary in the first place.

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Inside Knowledge

For those who may have missed it the first time, “Kremlinology 14:  Dead Caterpillars”.

For those who scoffed at the notion the first time the post appeared, notice how suddenly things start to fit together as other elements of the story emerge.

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Freedom from Information: The Two Connies

Not only do the federal and provincial Conservative parties in power have very similar attitudes toward the legislature, they also share a common disregard for public access to government information.

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What would Beaton do?

If you can’t build ‘em a greenhouse, then the next best thing for a government bereft of any ideas is create some government jobs handing out government cheques.

"Our government is committed to creating jobs in all regions of the province," said the Honourable Susan Sullivan, MHA for Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans. "The establishment of this new office in Central Newfoundland further emphasizes the commitment that has been made to support the residents living in this region."

The new office in Grand Falls-Windsor will employ 25 people sending cheques to people who are helping to save the race from extinction.  The office workers will also hand out money to help people pay their home heating bills.

The whole thing sounds awfully familiar.

Frighteningly familiar.

 

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Economic Recovery: Not exactly as illustrated

By definition, anyone connected to “economic development” in any provincial government or quasi-government organization must be so positive and upbeat as to make a Pollyanna look like someone about to climb into a warm bath and open a major artery or six.

That pretty much sums up the view in central Newfoundland where the regions major private sector employer is gone and there is nothing on the go even remotely as big:

"(If it was contrary to what businesses are reporting) you would see it in job losses, you would see it in lack of inventory," [Amy Coady-Davis, chair of the Grand Falls-Windsor town economic development committee] said.

"The turnover is there - it is right in front of your face. You can't fudge those numbers. Sales are up, they have said they're up, you can see that they are up."

Well, not exactly, at least if you judge by some numbers included the same Telegram article and which came from no less an authority than the town’s own economic development agency:

According to the economic development office in Grand Falls-Windsor, housing starts are down 50 per cent from 2008 - there were 118 units built then as compared to 53 units in 2009.

There you have it.

And if that wasn’t enough, consider the view from the local chamber of commerce:

Gerald Thompson, president of the Chamber of Commerce - which represents 209 businesses in Grand Falls-Windsor - tends to agree with the town's positive outlook.

He said they are getting far more positive feedback from members than negative.

"... Although there's been a number of small businesses that have closed in the last year, we still know that the people that have done business here in this valley, their percentages over last year are up.”

Of course, they are up. 

Some of the people who used to patronize those businesses that have closed up have moved their custom to the ones remaining.

And those companies that went out of business? 

Well, they aren’t members of the chamber of commerce any more – most likely – so their voices wouldn’t heard when the chamber does a survey of members.

Just to add to the whole surreal atmosphere of the article, don’t forget that the president of the chamber of commerce cited as proof of the great things the positive view from the people who build new homes.

Oh yeah.

Things are so great in that business people are building only half as many homes as they did in that artificial bubble the year after the mill closed.  That would be the year of severance cheques and all that extra, short-term cash.

What happens from this point onward will be entirely the result of whatever economic activity there is left now that the Abitibi mill’s corpse has stopped twitching.  Those who are tempted to look at places like Stephenville need to think again.  All those paper mill workers found other jobs, mostly in Alberta.  Those sorts of options don’t exist for the crew from Grand Falls-Windsor.

Nor is there a chance that the province’s remaining paper mill – there were three in 2003, incidentally – will take up any slack.  It is struggling to survive.  The company that runs the mill is reportedly looking for a 10% wage roll back from workers.

The professional pollyannas can be as bright-eyed and optimistic as the want.

The reality may well prove to be not exactly as illustrated.

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“And other media are now reporting…”

Add that one to your collection of great quotes that ring a little tinny.

The truth is that other media had the story first and were reporting all of it – including the American bit – before anyone else including the guy who said those immortal words.

That line is nothing however compared to this one from a Canadian Press story filed out of Halifax:

"I want to resist the temptation to say that somehow the political culture here is underdeveloped and people are all just dupes of this man. I refuse to entertain that kind of interpretation."

Yes, Michael Temelini is refusing to entertain the interpretation but apparently he is willing to buy it a few drinks and introduce it to some casual acquaintances.

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Negligent Discharge

The only way a Sig Sauer  - the standard side arm for the Royal Newfoundland Constabulary - could discharge a round is if there was one already in the chamber.

So a bullet that skips off the floor and lodges in a wall other than on the range?

Figure it out for yourself.

Incidentally, that’s why some organizations call it what it is - a negligent discharge -not an “accidental” one.

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NL economy to shrink by 4.5% in 2009: RBC

From the latest RBC Economics provincial outlook:

After suffering a significant setback in its resource sector in 2009, Newfoundland & Labrador’s economy is set to jump back into growth mode in 2010. Major declines in mining and crude oil production during the past year are expected to be largely reversed. Stronger global demand for iron ore and the eventual settlement of a labour dispute at the Voisey’s Bay nickel operations are forecast to
boost metal mining output and the imminent entry into service of the North Amethyst satellite field — an expansion to White Rose — will provide a temporary lift to offshore oil production. This positive swing in a sector that represents approximately 30% of real GDP in the province will once more be the dominant factor in overall growth in 2010, contributing more than one percentage point to output. We forecast real GDP growth at 2.4%, revised up from 2% in September, and a 1.5% increase in 2011. In 2009, the slump in mining and oil
and gas extraction is likely to lop off more than six percentage points from real GDP growth, which has been revised lower to -4.5% to reflect longer-than anticipated mining operation shutdowns.

That forecast 2.4% growth in gross domestic product for 2010 puts the province in the middle of the pack among the other provinces.

Talk about a slender reed:  it is based entirely on production from the White Rose expansion.

Real growth in 2011 is positively anaemic at 1.5%.  That’s the lowest of any province.

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Delusion or Disconnect? Overtime

“The Williams Government has been unwavering in its commitment to managing provincial programs, services and financial resources in a responsible and prudent manner.”

and

“Sound governance and responsible management have been the cornerstones of how our government runs the affairs of the province and administers programs and services to meet the needs of our residents."

Sure.

That’s easy enough to write in a release, but it sure doesn’t hold up to scrutiny. 

Take, for example, the issue of overtime which led off pretty well every conventional news story on the Auditor General’s report released last week.

The coverage and commentary thus far took cues from the Auditor general and focused on some fairly simple and obvious points. Overtime both in its paid and time-off varieties has mushroomed  - up 55% - since 2001.

That’s despite the work of a committee struck in 2001 to come up with ways of controlling overtime. The climb has been steepest since 2004 when the current crowd of sound fiscal managers took over and started spending public cash in what Paul Oram and other cabinet ministers have described since as an unsustainable manner. 

The official response: these people are making way more money than before, there may be problems recruiting in some cases and the work demands for public safety all may make it necessary to run up the over-time bill.

That first one would matter if the amount was the concern. 

It really isn’t, though, if you look beyond the simplistic stuff the AG fixated on and look at the rates of change for specific departments.  It’s easy to focus on  Works and Transportation but the change in overtime paid out has actually been relatively modest.  It’s gone from $9.3 million to about $11.9 million in a little less than a decade.

But what about Executive Council and Finance?

The numbers there show stunning increases:  from $74,000 to $602,000 in Finance and comparable jumps – on the order of nine or 10 percent  - in Executive Council. The explanations offered for the transportation or Justice departments’ overtime expenses just don’t apply here.

They also don’t fit with the pattern for most of the departments listed on page 12 of that section of the AG report.  The changes, over time, just don’t match that rate of increase.  Even in Justice, the overtime paid out in 2008 is only slightly less than three times higher than that paid in 2000. That’s bigger than it should be but the amount is potentially justified – pardon the pun – if there are issues of staffing or public safety involved in some years.

The sort of comparison done here – as relatively unsophisticated as it is – just can’t be found in the AG report.  There is much talk of amounts and the shares of the total held by one department or another.  But at no point does the AG zero in on the departments which seem to have some fairly obvious problems and ones that have – on the face of it – much more significant implications for management or the manageability of the problem.

If a department has a fairly consistent amount of overtime, then that’s one thing.  But if the amount starts small and then grows exponentially?  Well, that suggests there are people problems or an organizational problem that needs to be addressed with something more substantial than the “keep an eye on things” advice coming from the AG report.

You might forgive the Auditor General for the simplistic approach to this issue taken in the report if the amount of overtime accumulated through the “time-off in lieu of” system  - called TOIL - wasn’t equally as dramatic as the paid overtime in a couple of cases as well.

That chart isn’t distorted.  Finance went from a TOIL of $68,000 in Fiscal Year 2000 to almost $1.1 million in FY 2008. Justice numbers are about the same.  TOIL is time off in lieu of overtime.

What makes these numbers stand out all the more is the comparison with departments where you might expect the overtime bill to be huge. 

Take Health, for example.  Big department.  Plenty of demands.  However, both the TOIL and paid overtime costs in the study period remained about what they were before.  Now the paid overtime numbers for Health fluctuated wildly over time, but they did not experience the sort of dramatic sweep upward seen with the departments noted here.  And in the case of TOIL, the Health tally was about $27,000 for 2008 compared to $25,000 about a decade ago.

It would take way more information that the AG makes available to figure out why these three departments are experiencing the rather dramatic changes in overtime over time.  As a result, it would be hard to say what is causing the problems and therefore make some useful suggestions on how to fix things. 

One thing that is for certain, the AG report makes some pretty lame recommendations that don’t really amount to much.  Tracking the overtime and making sure it is warranted both count as penetrating insights into the managerially obvious and they are about as useless an exercise as faking your own recommendations.

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Skywatch 2010: The Marystown Video

Courtesy of Glen Carter at NTV News:  First Edition, here is a screen cap from the Marystown video taken on the same Monday evening people saw unidentified flying objects near Harbour Mille.

1.  The contrails are plainly visible and have both the reddish and the dark characteristics seen in the image from Harbour Mille.

2.  The aircraft making the contrails is plainly visible in one portion of the video.  It is a twin-engined commercial jet – similar to an Airbus A310/A320 or an Embraer 190 -of the type that routinely fly in that area on the way to and from St. John’s.

3.   The multi-coloured splotch on the right side of the picture is either sun glinting off the airframe or a strobe light on the aircraft.  Remember that this is essentially a single “frame” of the video.  There may well be things in the shot that wouldn’t be as prominent in the full video.

4.  The angle of this shot is somewhat unusual.  It appears the aircraft flew directly over the shooter and in this particular shot is proceeding away from the camera.  The camera also appears to be max’ed out on zoom.  In the video, the aircraft is seldom if ever steady in the centre of the frame.

5.  While it isn’t quite so clear in this shot, there is a gap between the back end of the engine and the start of the contrail.

Flightaware.com Update: 

flightaware.com is a great resource.  Here’s a screen cap taken – as the time stamp shows at about 1800 hrs local or 2130 Zulu.  That would be 6:00PM to normal people.

The red dot is about where Harbour Mille would be on this crude map.  The blue track is the official flight path for Air Canada’s flight 695, an Embraer 190 run from St. John’s (YYT) to Pearson (YYZ) with a stop at Halifax along the way.  The yellow line is the actual track as it showed up on flightaware.com.  Allow for inaccuracy given the crude nature of the map.

It was an airplane folks.

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