Torque Wars: Media, politicians and the Muskrat Falls loan guarantee

Some people will tell you there the federal and provincial governments have a deal for a federal loan guarantee on Muskrat Falls.  The provincial government has already met three criteria set by the federal government and Stephen Harper confirmed that in a speech in St. John’s.

That’s what you could take out of some stories from different media outlets coming out of Harper’s campaign stop in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Bear in mind though that the loan guarantee story took a couple of turns within the past 24 hours even for one single news outlet. 

On Wednesday, CBC reported the deal was done:

Multiple sources tell CBC News, though, that the federal and provincial governments have reached a deal on the terms of a loan guarantee.

Multiple sources.

Multiple unidentified sources.

Not even a hint if they were highly placed in both the federal and provincial governments.

Sometimes that happens.  You don’t even give the slightest clue as to the authenticity of the sources on which the story is based. Put it down to a judgment call.  Doesn’t mean that the comments are right or wrong, but it could put a question mark over the accuracy of the information.

On Thursday afternoon, CBC reported Stephen Harper’s comments during a campaign stop in Nova Scotia:

“The details still have to be worked out," said Harper speaking in Halifax Thursday morning. "There is a lot of discussion still to come, but it is obviously an important project."

Then there was Harper’s speech in St. John’s, impeccably timed to coincide with super hour newscasts. and obligingly carried live by the province’s electronic news media.  It was like Brian Tobin’s 1999 provincial election campaign launch but this time everyone gifted a political campaign with the kind of airtime they could never afford to buy.

The Conservatives issued a news release headlined “Harper endorses Lower Churchill Project”:

Prime Minister Harper noted that, with these criteria in mind, his Government will provide a loan guarantee or other financial support for the Lower Churchill hydro-electric project.  The project will provide Atlantic Canada with a major new source of clean energy.  Support for clean energy projects will be based on the principles of respect and equitable treatment for all regions of the country.

The criteria are:

• National or regional significance.
• Economic and financial feasibility and merit.
• Significantly reduces carbon emissions.

The backgrounder with the news release included this comment:

A re-elected Conservative Government will provide a loan guarantee or other financial support to the Lower Churchill hydro-electric project on the basis of these criteria.

Not everyone accepted the deal is done, though. The Toronto Star reported that

Harper said the federal government has been discussing the Lower Churchill project for “some time” but suggested more negotiations were needed to cement Ottawa’s backing.

“There’s a lot of discussion yet to go but I think the opportunities of the project for this country are evident,” he said.

CTV said that Harper remained “vague” about details:

However, when it comes to federal funding for the project, Harper remained vague.

"In terms of specifics, those things still have to be discussed," he said.

Even CBC couldn’t agree on what happened within its own story on the speech.  A cutline for a photo illustration said:  “Stephen Harper says his government will provide a loan guarantee to the Lower Churchill project, if it meets three criteria.” The body of the story said Harper had already committed to the guarantee.

For all the stories that have run talking about a loan guarantee,  you have to note the appearance of something new in the actual Harper statement:  “equivalent financial support.”  

Conservative briefers travelling with Harper reportedly told reporters that the loan guarantee would have “zero” cost. If it really had no cost then it would be hard to imagine why the federal government would want to provide a cash injection. 

The Toronto Sun referred to unnamed party officials who said that the federal government would “co-sign” any loans with the provincial government.  What isn’t clear at this point is how much of the project would be financed with loans and how much would be funded through bond issues or equity stakes with other investors.

What’s really in behind these media reports is a torque war among the politicians involved. 

For Kathy Dunderdale, Muskrat Falls is the key to her election campaign in October. She’s working hard to distinguish herself from Danny Williams. Delivering a loan guarantee for Williams’ retirement project with a prime minister Williams could never deal with would be exactly what she wants.

No one should be surprised to find out that Dunderdale’s people have been pushing hard to convince reporters that the thing is really in the bag.  After all, this wouldn’t be the first time in the last seven or eight years that the provincial government claimed they had something, like a loan guarantee from Harper in 2006, that local reporters dutifully reported only to have the thing disappear into nothingness.

For Harper, it’s a matter of picking up seats in Newfoundland and Labrador while at the same time not creating a political meltdown in Quebec or other provinces.  He will also have to be very sensitive to the financial implications of committing the federal government to billions of dollars of new public debt.  After all, that is what loan guarantees really mean.

They don’t come with “zero cost”.  Until the debts are paid off, they show up on the federal books as liabilities. The federal government can negotiate a fee for providing the guarantee but that can’t be high enough to basically wipe out the advantage to the provincial government of having the guarantee in the first place.

No one should be surprised that Harper’s people are trying to make this look like Harper is willing to support the project while at the same time giving him plenty of language he can use later on to justify it if the federal government doesn’t deliver a loan guarantee or other financial support.

Dunderdale’s crowd will have some sympathy, incidentally, from Harper’s local team.  After all, they want to grab as many seats in the province as they can.  Playing to the local expectations are one way of helping that cause.  At the same time, though, the federal Conservative organizers have to be sensitive to the larger issues.

As for the debts showing up on balance sheets, the same thing will happen for the provincial government as a result of any debt Nalcor takes on to build the Muskrat Falls project.

And when it comes to one of the key Harper criteria – economic and financial feasibility and merit – that could be one of the points on which the whole thing will hinge.

But is there a done deal?

Absolutely not.

If there was, Stephen Harper wouldn’t be saying otherwise.

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Related:  “Undisclosed risk:  financing the Lower Churchill”

No federal dough but big media “D’oh!”on Muskrat Falls

Multiple sources tell CBC News, though, that the federal and provincial governments have reached a deal on the terms of a loan guarantee.

That’s a line from a CBC story on Wednesday with a headline and a lede that said much the same thing.

There is a deal.

We don’t know if Stephen Harper will announce it on Thursday during his visit but, there is a deal.

Reality turns out to be more than a wee bit different. 

There is no deal at all.

Instead, Stephen Harper told reporters in Halifax on Thursday that Muskrat Falls is an important project.

But…

"The details still have to be worked out," said Harper speaking in Halifax Thursday morning. "There is a lot of discussion still to come, but it is obviously an important project."

Could be a loan guarantee.

Could be an equity stake.

Might be nothing at all.

It seems that some local media outlets fell for the heavy torque coming from the provincial Conservative administration of Kathy Dunderdale.  She’s been grinning like a Cheshire cat since last week leaving all sorts of nudge-nudge hints that something was coming.

You can see the whole thing in this section of a post at CBC’s politics blog that talked up the big changes on the provincial political scene since Danny Williams left office in an unseemly haste just before Christmas:

All of this is leading to speculation of something big from Harper's first campaign stop in Newfoundland and Labrador, expected later this week.

How big? Maybe as big as $6.2 billion. That's the estimated cost of the Muskrat Falls hydro development that would reshape the energy map of Eastern Canada. It's a joint venture between Newfoundland and Labrador's public energy company Nalcor and Nova Scotia-based Emera.

Wednesday afternoon CBC News confirmed that Premier Dunderdale and Conservative Leader Stephen Harper have reached an agreement on a loan guarantee to help with the province's financing for the project.

Dunderdale met with Harper's chief of staff Nigel Wright two weeks ago in St. John's.

The sudden rush to elect federal Tories had provincial insiders assuming the deal was done.

Sure there’s the mention of speculation but right there in the middle is the line  “CBC news confirmed that”  Dunderdale and Harper had an agreement.

Oh to be a fly on a few walls in this end of the country Thursday afternoon.

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Don’t step in the media spin: 2011 election version

Check the conventional media and you’ll see plenty of unfounded media torquing of what is really nothing other than a return to normal in Newfoundland and Labrador after Danny Williams one-time effort to suppress federal Conservative votes.

Take, for example, this breathless line from a posting on CBC’s politics blog with a title that talks about a “political sea change” (give us all a frickin’ break):

The big question now is whether Newfoundland and Labrador voters will embrace Harper's party once more. The provincial Tories may be on board, but the real test is the voters who abandoned the Conservatives two years ago.

Anyone who has looked seriously at Williams’ family feud in 2008 will see  - in a heartbeat – that his ABC campaign was really just focused on his own Blue-type voters.  Your humble e-scribbler has been making that point since 2008.  You’ll find a generally similar analysis from Memorial University political scientist Alex Marland in the Thursday Telegram.

The 2008 general election did not involve  - on any level at all  - a general rejection by voters in Newfoundland and Labrador in the way that last sentence from the CBC blog post suggests.

Nor did Danny Williams actually shift local voting behaviour outside of the Blue people who suppressed.  As Marland puts it, Williams’ effort would have been much more impressive if he had turned seven seats blue.  All he really did is feed general suspicions about the Conservatives and Stephen Harper.

And that’s what makes that other comment – about embracing “Harper’s party once more”  - nothing other than complete, unadulterated bullshit.

To go step further, voters in Newfoundland and Labrador have really never embraced the federal Conservatives in the current for progressive variant.  The Tories picked up three seats in 1997 compared to their usual two but that was tied to problems with the provincial government government.  Brian Mulroney did exceptionally well in this province in the 1980s but three of seven seems to be about the best the Tories have done in Newfoundland and Labrador since 1949.

The one exception is 1968.  Normally safe red seats went blue en masse as the country as a whole bathed in the gushing hot springs of Trudeaumania.

But there again, the federal vote was actually nothing more than a reflection of the brooding rebellion against Joe Smallwood.

As for the speculation about what Stephen Harper may announce on his campaign stop in St. John’s on Thursday, that’s actually nothing more than what one might expect from a bunch of provincial and federal Conservatives who are campaigning very hard for their usual, mutual benefit.

There is nothing odd or bizarre about it.  There is no shift in the political plate tectonics, no orgasmic outpourings for Steve nor any sign of an impending tsunami of pent-up anything that would clear the landscape of politics within the province.

All that is happening is that voting patterns are returning to normal.  The fact the Tories have lined up a raft of former provincial cabinet ministers plus a couple of others is really nothing other than a sign that Danny Williams no longer sits stuffed link a bung in the cask of political ambition among people who run with the Conservative Party in Newfoundland and Labrador.

And any pledges Stephen Harper makes in the province on his campaign swing?

It will just put him in line with the other party leaders all of whom have already made the same commitment to a loan guarantee for Muskrat Falls.

That project is no closer to reality, though.  The decision to double provincial electricity rates  - guaranteed- for local ratepayers, saddle them with a 50% increase in gross public debt  and ship power outside the province at taxpayer-funded discounts rests solely on the shoulders of provincial Conservatives.

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Conservative tiff-any candidates

Take a look at the list of Conservative candidates in Newfoundland and Labrador, including a couple who haven’t formally declared yet but whose names are out there:

• Jerry Byrne
• John Ottenheimer
• Peter Penashue
• Fabian Manning
• Loyola Sullivan
• Tom Rideout
• Trevor Taylor

Okay, so drop off the first two and it might be easier.

No, it isn’t that they are all former provincial Conservative cabinet ministers.

That’s too easy.

Try again.

Give up?

They all pissed Danny off and/or left cabinet under strange, strained or unexplained circumstances.

2005: Danny orchestrated Fabian Manning’s political lynching in domestic politics right down to  - reportedly - having one of his staffers sit in on the caucus meeting in which the rest of them showed their loyalty to the Capo by figuratively shooting their friend between the eyes. Kinda hard to hide that rift.

2006:  Loyola Sullivan quit cabinet and politics suddenly in December 2006. A few days after he flipped Danny the finger, Loyola wound up telling CBC that there as no rift between him and Danny.

2008:  Peter Penashue never showed enough “respect” as far as Danny was concerned:

Williams said he doesn't like ultimatums, especially when they are tied to multibillion-dollar developments, and are made on the airwaves instead of at the bargaining table.

"Peter Penashue and his group should treat us with respect, as we treat them with respect," he said.

2008:  Former Premier Tom Rideout bailed on provincial politics in a pretty obvious tiff with Danny Williams.  Supposedly the two fell out over road paving. A few people thought the road paving thing was a pretext for something bigger.

2009:  Trevor Taylor, former federal New Democratic Party candidate, joined Danny Williams’ Conservative crew in 2001.  He left politics suddenly in September 2009, citing “personal reasons.”

Bonus if you can identify two more tiffs related to these candidates and Danny.

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Connie candidate’s mother opposes Labrador hydro project

If media reports hold up, Conservative leader Stephen harper will be in St. John’s on Thursday to announce his party will give the provincial government a loan guarantee to dam a river in Labrador, double provincial electricity rates and increase the provincial public debt by something up to 50% from what it is right now.

Now that is all bad enough.

But to make matters worse, Harper’s Labrador candidate has a problem within his own community.

Peter Penashue’s mother opposes the project.

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ABC Comedy Central: The Skinner File

From the annals of the Anything But Conservative Campaign there’s this little bit of independence displayed by current natural resources minister Shawn Skinner back in 2008.

Danny bitch-slapped him into submission PDQ for this one:

Not for me, it isn't. My boss can vote for who he wishes. He can mark his 'X' where he wishes to mark it. From my perspective, I have a job to do. I'm elected by the people of St. John's Centre. I'm in cabinet representing the people of the province of Newfoundland and Labrador and I have a job to do. And I'm going to do that to the best of my ability.

If and when there is a federal election, we all as individual citizens can make up our own minds what we want to do. I'm here today as a provincial minister and I'm carrying out my duties as a provincial minister.

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The Speaker’s partisan bias

No one who has watched Speaker of the House of Assembly Roger Fitzgerald can doubt he has already displayed his partisan bias repeatedly.

Was anyone surprised to see him turn up at a partisan rally cheering on his political friends?

Seriously.

Is anyone surprised?

Those that are simply aren’t paying attention.

It is hard to imagine such a naked display of contempt for parliament and its proud traditions as the one Roger Fitzgerald displayed on Tuesday.  Odds are, as well, that the Conservative will show up for his party’s leadership coronation this weekend.

What’s more reprehensible than Fitzgerald’s blatant disregard for his office is his arrogant dismissal of criticism.  Fitzgerald knows full well that his partisan friends will defeat any motion to censure him for his wrong behaviour.

 

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The New Dave Denine

His name is Harry Harding.

Kathy Dunderdale made him a cabinet minister.

Minister of Government Services is his official title.  Minister of permits and licenses is how he is sometimes known.  It is not an especially demanding portfolio.

On Tuesday, Harry wound up caught like a deer in the headlights.

The opposition leader asked him a simple question about his departmental responsibilities.

She did it during Question Period.

She asked about a major issue within his department:

Mr. Speaker, the Workers’ Compensation Commission has completed an audit on the Department of Government Services’ compliance with their own health and safety legislation. Shockingly, Mr. Speaker, what that audit found is that the Department of Government Services and the Department of Human Resources are only compliant with 50 per cent of their own rules.

I ask the Minister of Government Services today: Why is your department only following 50 per cent of your own rules, and is that the level of compliance that is expected or acceptable to you?

Harry had an answer. 

Here it is, in its entirety:

Certainly, our department welcomes any comments and recommendations by the Auditor General. Our department has fulfilled most of these recommendations throughout the years.

With respect to the question that she has asked today, I would like to check further with my officials and bring back an answer for her tomorrow.

Thank very much, Mr. Speaker.

Auditor general?

Okay.  So he was thinking on his feet.  Maybe it was a slip of the tongue.

Check further with officials and get back to her.

Oops.

Then it got better.  Opposition Leader Yvonne Jones went further:

Mr. Speaker, not only is the department failing to meet their own rules, we have also learned on Thursday that they are getting rid of three co-ordinators who are responsible for safety within the social sector. They include HRLE, Government Services, Health and Community Services, Municipal Affairs, Education, Labour Relations, Government Purchasing Agency, Fire and Emergency Services.  So, Minister, maybe you will know the answer to this question [:]

Given that your department is clearly not compliant with your own rules, how do you justify getting rid of staff who are working on bringing up the level of compliance in your particular department?

Harry didn’t know anything about it.

So he went back to the line that he would check into it and get back to Jones on Wednesday.

Maybe Jones is wrong.

That’s a favourite line of the government benches.

They might be right this time.  But if Harding was on top of his department he’d have been able to bat that one out of the park easily.

Obviously he just didn’t know.

So he had to check.

And incidentally, that idea that the Opposition  has its facts wrong is a shop-worn one the Gang that Couldn’t Shoot Straight like to use. 

They have used it even  when - as in the Abitibi expropriation – the opposition has all the facts right and the government is caught flatfooted day after embarrassing day.

This one is looking interesting.

It could be that cabinet now has a brand new Dave Denine to go along with the one they already have.

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The Lost Chord

The Telegram’s Russell Wangersky writes about his dream of composing that one perfect sentence.

It is the writer’s dream:

I want to write that one single, clear clean note, but I want to write it in words: is that too much to ask for?

Just once. Just to write it once. And rest.

I mean, if it was music you would know instinctively exactly what I’m talking about.

You’d recognize it the moment you heard it; would recognize it the moment it curled threads into your ears. The way it fit and filled and hung there, complete.

If it was music.

Hmm.

I have sought, but I seek it vainly,
That one lost chord divine,
Which came from the soul of the organ,
And entered into mine.

It may be that death's bright angel
Will speak in that chord again,
It may be that only in Heav'n
I shall hear that grand Amen.

Those are the last two stanzas of a poem written in 1853.  An organist played one perfect chord that “quieted pain and sorrow” and “linked all perplexed meanings into one perfect peace.”

And although he tried many times to find it again, the organist could never again find the chord.

Sir Arthur Sullivan set it to music in 1877.:

Writers, musicians and other artists likely all share a very similar dream. Perhaps it is one expression of the fire of creativity that burns inside them.

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Don Mills: Pollster PIFO Genius

Regular readers just consider this for a second.

CBC called Don Mills, the provincial government’s official pollster, and asked him about this rift thing inside the provincial Conservative Party.

Here’s what he said:

"It just raises a question about, you know, whether or not the new premier may in fact be the best choice - having been appointed basically as the heir apparent to Mr. Williams," said Mills.

…

"You know tongues will be wagging in the province for sure over this issue," said Mills. "People will want to know what the basis of the dispute is and now that it's out there in the public, it's very difficult to stop it from becoming worse."

Penetrating insight into the friggin’ obvious, or what?

Yeah.

Yeah.

You don’t need to say it.

Even a blind squirrel is right twice a day.

But come on…this guy could be the province’s natural resources minister he is so far behind the curve.

BTW, anyone heard Tony (Secret Tweeter) Ducey  on this topic yet?

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All good Tories flocking together…again

Some people seem to think that having a bunch of provincial and federal Conservatives all gathered together trading sloppy kisses is news.

How short some memories are.

In 2004, the provincial Conservatives sort of helped their federal cousins out.  They sort of helped them because – while there was no instruction to stay away – the provincial guys were trying to court the Liberals to get a couple of billion in cash.  They weren’t interested in causing waves at a time when federal Conservatives couldn’t form government.

In 2006, things were different.  Every provincial Conservative and their dog worked hard for their federal cousins.

How hard?

Well, some of you may recall a series of print ads showing provincial cabinet and caucus member gathered with some of their buddies.  Apologies for the poor quality scans.

Here’s the way your humble e-scribbler put it in the original post back in 2008:

“The guy seated on the far right of the picture is Loyola Sullivan, the finance minister at the time.  He quit federal politics not long after this picture only to take up a job with the federal Conservatives.

The guy behind him is former speaker Harvey Hodder.  He retired before the 2007 provincial election.

Immediately to Loyola Hearn's right is Sheila Osborne, part of the Osborne-Ridgley political machine.

The guy standing right behind Loyola Hearn - with that great big grin on his face - is Bob Ridgley, brother of Sheila. You will recall him as the Conservative who supported Belinda Stronach for leader even though, by his own words, he thought she was "shallow as a saucer".

Bob is now Danny Williams' parliamentary assistant.

The other two guys are - left to right - Shawn Skinner and Dave Denine. Skinner is the provincial human resources cabinet minister and Denine is looking after municipal affairs.

You'll recall Skinner was taken to the woodshed by Danny Williams for going off the ABC message track.  He was made to apologize publicly for his transgression.

Denine's had a few problems of his own, but never for doing something that went against orders from the top.

Interesting picture that, if only because it makes you wonder when they line up behind a candidate if they really do it out of personal choice or if they have been directed by some authority or other.

Makes you wonder that if they lend you support do they expect a quid pro quo, a back scratch in return.

…”

Prophetic, no?

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Kremlinology 33: Trouble at t’mill

One of the cross beams has gone out of skew on the treadle.

Note that in CBC’s Monday night report on the rift within the provincial Conservative Party some people walked away from the CBC reporter like she hadn’t washed in a month.

Others cheerfully denied there were any problems.

Among the walkers: Jerome! and Darin, King of Uncommunication.  No sign of Fairity O’Brien but odds are he’d be in the silent camp as well.

Among the smilers:  Terry French and Shawn Skinner. The latter was stretching his own credibility to the breaking point after the whole Elizabeth Matthews fiasco, but that’s another story.

One suspects that the smilers would also include the gang that NTV’s Michael Connors reported at the Fabian Manning campaign launch Monday evening:

Seems like da byes want to make it easy for the rest of us tell which player belongs in what camp.

People will want to watch any broadcast of the Dunderdale coronation this weekend just to see who is where, doing what.

For those who picked up the pop culture reference at the beginning, here’s the original Python sketch of the Spanish Inquisition.  Note the striking resemblance Graham Chapman bears to Jerome! before the latter lost his ’stache.

 

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15 minutes to write a good blog post

One of the wonderful things about modern communication tools is that you can find a wonderful link early on an otherwise dreary Monday morning.

That’s what happened yesterday.

“How to write a blog post in 5 steps and 15 minutes” is a handy guide to doing exactly as the title states.  If you do not write blog posts, this guide still has useful information.  It is well worth the few minutes it will take you to read the post from start to finish.

Be warned:  this is a guide to writing the post.

Research is the bit that takes longer and it is research and preparation that will set your post apart from the millions of others people might read on any particular day..  The tweet that carried the link to this post said that you can write in 15 minutes if you know what you are talking about.

That’s the key point.

You have to know the subject before you start writing. 

All too often writers sit down and bang away at the keyboard or – as the old folks recall – stare at the blank sheet of paper.  Worse for the reader, they start clacking away like someone possessed.  The result can be something that is the mental equivalent of the world’s supply of yarn piled up randomly in a single spot:  it does come to an end but only after going around and over and back again.

If you take the time to organize your thoughts and gather some facts or other information to support your argument, the actual writing can be pretty short.

One link inside the “15 minutes” post you should follow is this one to a list of the 18 types of posts that get the most reader attention.  Both the writing post and the list post are an example of one or more of the types.  See if you can figure out which ones they are.

Here’s an extra tip:  carry a notebook. Almost 18 months ago, your humble e-scribbler stopped collecting notes on scraps of paper and started writing things down in a notebook. 

It’s a Piccadilly, very similar to the Moleskine but far less expensive.  The cover on the spine is cracked and the whole thing is now lashed together with some stylish shiny black duct tape.  That just adds to its character.

For writing, there’s a Parker IM fountain pen:  inexpensive at about $30 and hardy enough to take being dropped or stuffed into a briefcase or rucksack.  With a bottle of ink, you are always ready no matter where you are and no matter what you are doing when an idea strikes.  Pencils, ballpoints or rollerball pens would do just as nicely.

What you write with and where you write isn’t as important as the fact you take notes, jot down ideas, and do whatever it will take to go back to the notebook later and craft a post based on your jottings.

Now if only writing a tweet quickly so that it didn’t get misunderstood was half as easy…

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Trolling for Dollars

Susan Delacourt’s got a screen cap of an ad that appeared on Craigslist looking for people to post Conservative talking points on social media and other Internet spaces.

While the federal Tories seem to have a great deal in common with their provincial cousins – Danny Williams’ laughable claims to the contrary notwithstanding – seems that Dan-o never had to pay people to troll for him.

Did he?

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If a rocket didn’t carry people into space any more…

For those of a certain age, the American space program and the race to the moon remains one of our most cherished childhood memories.

For other people of a certain age, though, that is all ancient history.

They can easily remind you that a human being first set foot on the moon 42 years ago this summer.  He flew along with two comrades in a cramped spaceship that couldn’t be used again after the flight.

Thirty years ago, Americans started using a re-usable space plane to go into orbit and bring back not just three men, but a half dozen men and women on every flight.

2011 will mark the end of the American manned space program, at least as far as launches from the United States go. The shuttle program will end this summer. The planned return to the moon and eventual Mars missions are scrapped.  Anyone, Americans included, headed to the International Space Station will have to fly on Russian rockets.

When a rocket from the United States doesn’t carry anyone into space any more, will anyone notice?

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Further reading:

• Rocket men by Craig Nelson.
• “As astronaut Sally Ride turns 60, shuttle rides to end” by James M. Clash.

Bond Papers readers know more than provincial energy minister

Both the federal and Quebec provincial governments may have released the text of their agreement on underwater resources in the Gulf of St. Lawrence last week but Newfoundland and Labrador natural resources minister Shawn Skinner didn’t even see a copy until today – March 28.

As he told the provincial legislature during Question Period:

…It just came into our possession over the weekend is my understanding. I actually saw a copy of it this morning myself. I have not had an opportunity to review [it]…

Anyone with access to the Internet could have had a copy of the deal the day the federal and Quebec governments released it.

That’s where your humble e-scribbler found it last Thursday for a post that appeared on Friday.  That post included this assessment:

What’s most interesting about the Laurentide Accord, though is the fact that it is modelled, generally, on the Atlantic Accord (1985) between Newfoundland and Labrador and the federal government or the similar Nova Scotia offshore accord.

As Skinner told the House, his officials did manage to figure out this much since they clapped eyes on the agreement over the weekend:

What I am told by officials at this point, where they have done a cursory review, is that it is very similar to the accords that have been done with Newfoundland and Labrador and Nova Scotia. The agreement is very similar…

Tomorrow, Skinner will likely be telling everyone that Quebec doesn’t get Equalization offsets, that provincial spending is unsustainable and Elvis has left the building.

Or at least that’s what he understands from briefings provided by his officials.

Sheesh.

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Election Eleven: NL seats at the start

Here’s the way things are shaping up in the seven Newfoundland and Labrador ridings at the start of Election ‘11:

1. St. John’s East:  Held by New Democrat Jack Harris at dissolution.  Harris will face Conservative Jerry Byrne and Liberal John Allan. 
2. St. John’s South-Mount Pearl:  Held by Liberal Siobhan Coady at dissolution.  She’ll face challenges from former provincial Conservative cabinet minister Loyola Sullivan and New Democrat Ryan Cleary.
3. Avalon:  Held by Liberal Scott Andrews at dissolution.  Andrews beat Fabian Manning in 2008 and Manning will quit his senate seat on Monday to take another run at a seat in the Commons.  Big question here is the potential rift internally within the Conservative camp.  Provincial Conservatives including health minister Jerome! Kennedy worked hard to destroy Manning the last time out.  Only time will tell if they can pry the hatchets out of each other’s skulls and bury them deep enough in the ground to elect Manning. 
4. Random-Burin-St.George’s:  Liberal Judy Foote.  Conservative Herb Davis, an ex-pat who ran against Foote last time, is the most most likely challenger again.  No word on the NDP possibilities.
5. Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls:  Scott Simms is the Liberal seeking re-election.  No word yet on NDP or Conservative challengers
6. Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte:  Gerry Byrne’s held the seat for the Liberals since Brian Tobin vacated it in the mid-1990s. Nil thus far on NDP or Conservative challengers.
7. Labrador:  Todd  Russell, the Liberal stalwart will face off against Peter Penashue for the Conservatives.  No word on a NDP candidate.

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Williams knifes successor

The rift between Danny Williams and Kathy Dunderdale goes way beyond just a minor tiff.

Williams turned up at a book launch a couple of days after leaving the promise on a vacation.  Williams told reporters who showed up that Dunderdale and her crew are so concerned at distancing themselves from Williams that they won’t even let him have cabinet ministers’ cell phone numbers.

CBC quoted Williams:

"I think it's very clear that the premier and her staff have felt that it's appropriate to distance themself from me," he told reporters Sunday at an event to launch a photo book of his often combative life in politics.

"And if that's the case, so be it. That's her right as premier of the province," he said.

A couple of things stand out about this last twist in the tale.

First, it would be hard for Dunderdale’s staff  to control who has cell phone numbers. Certainly, her office could monitor calling patterns on government phones via the cell phone provider but there’s nothing to give the office control over private cell numbers.

Second, there’s the question of why Williams would want to have all the cabinet numbers.  Evidently he is interested in influencing cabinet deliberations.  In that context his comment about “her right” seems to be a little less than sincere.

Third, the fact Williams is openly discussing the rift is an obvious tactic to put Dunderdale under even greater pressure.  He knows that she holds office purely by someone else’s good will.  Dunderdale knows it and lots of others do, as well.  More than a few people will have noticed Kevin “Fairity” O’Brien in the CBC video of Williams at the airport a few days ago. 

Kevin’s a proud member of the Dan-Club for Men. Jerome’s another.  Ditto Tom Marshall.  While Kevin may not have much clout, Tom and Jerome do. 

Some Conservative loyalists, especially those who still believe in Williams’ invincibility and his infallibility, won’t take too kindly to Dunderdale now that Williams has criticised her. 

Fourth, you now have to wonder why he’s undermining his hand-picked successor so readily.  Williams told reporters the rift has nothing to do with Elizabeth Matthews and the botched offshore board appointment.

Okay.

So if that isn’t it, what does Williams want so badly that he is willing to openly attack her less than a week before she formally takes over as Tory party leader?

Don’t guess relations with the federal Conservatives.  Those were already on the mend long before now. 

Something else is going on.

The challenge now is to figure out what Danny is playing at.

One thing is for sure, Kathy Dunderdale has an even bigger political problem inside her own administration than anyone thought, even as recently as Thursday last week.

- srbp -

Harper and coalitions

Without hypocrisy, some political leaders wouldn’t have anything to stand for.

Last night, a post from 2008  - “Taking power without an election” - suddenly found renewed popularity.

Given Stephen Harper’s condemnation of coalitions after he dropped by the Governor General’s place on Saturday, it becomes all the more hysterically funny to recall that in 2004, Steve thought coalitions were the cat’s ass.  They were just the answer the GG should give if the prime minister came a-calling looking for an election writ.

Coalition governments are bad.

Unless Steve is heading one.

Then they are good.

- srbp -

Traffic without any shocks, March 21 to 25

Your humble e-scribbler keeps scribbling and you, faithful readers, keep on reading.

Here’s what you were reading this past week.  There’s a pattern to it, but see if you can spot the surprising element to what’s been hot all week and the not so surprising element to what hasn’t been hot.

1. Believing things that aren’t true
2. Hell hath no fury…
3. Feds, Quebec announce joint deal on offshore resources
4. Muskrat Falls power may never go to new England: Nalcor
5. No Equalization offsets for Quebec
6. Lies, damn lies and throne speeches
7. Selling cheap power to Quebec
8. Cleary to unquit for NDP again
9. Dunderdale’s leadership woes deepen
10. Orchestra Pit Theory of Political News Coverage

- srbp -