The sum of all fears #nlpoli

Kathy Dunderdale says that it is gratifying to have the support of the majority of the people of the province, as recent polls show, according to the Premier.

In another corner, former natural resources minister Shawn Skinner thinks it is great that the Conservatives have the support of six in 10 of the people surveyed.  He was referring to the responses in a recent Corporate Research Associates poll asking people whether they were satisfied or dissatisfied with the current government’s performance.

Shawn and Kathy missed some rather important things.

Polls, Politicians, and Messages #nlpoli

Cabinet is where the real political power sits in a parliamentary democracy. Ministers have enormous power both individually and collectively.

Only the first minister – the prime minister or premier – gets to decide who sits at the cabinet table. That’s a power first ministers are always careful to preserve because it is the ultimate expression of their control over their caucus.  People want to get to cabinet and the only way in is through the premier.

Changes in cabinet are often rumoured but until they happen, they are not real.  Only the premier and her closest, most trusted advisors know what is coming.  They only tell the people involved at the last possible moment.  The expectation  - often a clearly spoken expectation - is that the people who know will keep their mouths firmly shut. 

So when CBC provincial affairs reporter David Cochrane can report that a cabinet shuffle is imminent, attributing information to multiple unnamed but apparently high-ranking Tories, you can understand that Kathy Dunderdale’s administration is in far more serious political trouble than it first appeared.

That and a buck fifty… #nlpoli

Former natural resources minister Shawn Skinner thinks that the Progressive Conservatives can turn around their current abysmal polling numbers if once they get beyond Muskrat Falls and turn their attention to other things.

Skinner was part of the political panel this weekend for On Point with David Cochrane.

Well,  that and a buck fifty and you have a cup of coffee.

The Swirl Continues #nlpoli

As it appears, all the talk last week in the Telegram editorial about the unusually large churn in the senior ranks of the provincial public service caused a bit of a churn in the stomachs of some people around St. John’s.

Some of them – including one curious series of Twitter comments – insisted the whole thing could be put down easily to retirements because we have an aging work force.  That’s an old one that local Tories have used to try to explain this away when SRBP raised it before.  We’ll get to that in a little bit.

For starters, let’s bring everything up to date. The more you dig, the more curious things you find.

Who wants to play Brutus? #nlpoli

Just as they ate up the Corporate Research Associates’ quarterly poll when the numbers favoured the local Conservatives,  the local media have reported the latest CRA numbers with equal enthusiasm now that the Tory numbers are lousy.

To put it simply, the numbers confirmed the general thrust of two recent polls and the local media have reported them faithfully. As CBC put it:

Kathy Dunderdale and Newfoundland and Labrador's Progressive Conservatives continue to lose ground among voters, a new tracking poll suggests.

Fairity O’Brien: Political Genius #nlpoli

On a day when the government’s pollster releases shitty news for his party, municipal affairs czar Fairity O’Brien decides it is a good idea to remind people of the miserable job his government did responding to Hurricane Igor.

Or as it is apparently known in some circles, Hurricane Ego.

For those who may not be familiar with the colourful cabinet minister, Fairity O’Brien is the guy who:

• doesn’t know what electoral district Snantny is in, and
• loves to commute between his home in Gander and his office in Sin Jawns, at taxpayer expense.

-srbp-

Did Mulcair really say that? #cdnpoli #nlpoli

According to CBC News, federal opposition leader Thomas Mulcair said that his party would honour a loan guarantee for the Muskrat Falls project “even if price tag goes up.”

But did he actually say that?

As the mind ponders… #nlpoli

labradore takes a unique look at the results of this week’s Quebec general election and wonders what might have happened if a few votes shifted around.

“What if”can be a useful exercise sometime.

-srbp-

As the Public Service World Churns #nlpoli

The Telegram editorial on Wednesday noted the most recent changes to the senior executive at the natural resources department and put it in the wider context of changes during the past 20 months.  The editorial notes that in the budget document for 2011 called Departmental Salary Details show that

the province had 20 deputy ministers, four associate deputy ministers and 61 assistant deputy ministers — a total of 85 positions at the top of the provincial civil service.

In the last 20 months, Dunderdale has announced 54 appointments at the level of assistant deputy minister or higher.

To paraphrase the editorial, maybe it means something, maybe it doesn’t matter that their figures show a 63% turnover in senior provincial public service management.

If you look at the period since Kathy Dunderdale became premier you will see that the Telegram missed a fair bit. If you drill deeper again and look at the pattern of changes, you can see even more.

Ya gotta love Rhonda..for LG #nlpoli

-srbp-

Disappeared Deputy? #nlpoli

Last summer, the provincial government proudly announced the appointment of a new deputy minister of natural resources.

The release included Diana Dalton’s biography.  She’s a lawyer who graduated from Dalhousie in 1979:

… Throughout the course of her career, Ms. Dalton has worked with the Governments of Nova Scotia and Papua New Guinea, as well as with the Department of Economic and Social Development, United Nations, New York. As an independent consultant she has worked in over 30 developed and developing countries in the areas of natural resources, energy and environment, including clients such as the World Bank, United Nations, national governments and private companies. Ms. Dalton has served for the past six years as Chair of the Canada-Nova Scotia Offshore Petroleum Board, and for two of these years she was also acting CEO.

As impressive as those credentials are, is Dalton still in the same job a year later?

Seems like more churning in the upper ranks of the public service.

Upper Churchill – an unexplored alternative #nlpoli

Muskrat Falls “not a competitive solution”

SRBP Exclusive

Over the next 55 years – the Muskrat Falls planning period – consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador could achieve savings of up to $4.0 billion if Nalcor used electricity from Churchill Falls, even if the provincial utility purchased the electricity from its subsidiary at market rates.

That conclusion is contained in  “Upper Churchill – the unexplored alternative”, a new analysis and commentary by JM, author of a 175 page analysis of the Muskrat Falls proposal submitted to the public utilities board as part of the board’s review.

“It is clear that Government and Nalcor did not provide a full, costed screening analysis of all the potential options,”  JM wrote in an e-mail to SRBP, “especially in the context of the shale gas revolution happening in the United States.”

JM reviews Muskrat Falls costs, assesses the merits of using Churchill Falls power in lieu of Muskrat Falls, and provides three mechanisms that could be used to gain access to the resource. 

JM notes that while the 1969 contract with Hydro-Quebec will be automatically renewed in 2016,

…the renewal … does potentially weaken some of the legal arguments successfully used by Hydro-Quebec in the earlier court cases. The de-regulation of the North American electricity markets should also ensure that Newfoundlanders gain access to energy at competitive rates. In the current energy climate Muskrat Falls is not a competitive solution.

-srbp-

Then or now? #nlpoli

Simple quiz.

When did someone make the following claims about an energy megaproject in Labrador:  1965 or 2012?

Up her nose, sideways #nlpoli

For some reason, Kathy Dunderdale wants to know who is criticising her pet project.

Now she doesn’t come flat out and say that, but you can tell someone got her goat pretty good during the public utilities board hearings into Muskrat Falls.

You can tell because Kathy said so in the House of Assembly on May 29.

Public hearing into secrecy request #nlpoli

It’s not just that the Muskrat Falls project is a bad idea;  the process by which the current provincial administration is forcing it through stinks as well.

If you want to see the problem take a look at the way the provincial government handled the public utilities board – it had no legal authority to conduct its own review of Muskrat Falls  - with what is happening in Nova Scotia on another matter involving that province’s utilities regulator.

The Black Light Artist

From a decision in a lawsuit between a moving company and a customer who sued the company claiming that the movers failed to deliver some of her goods:

14. Third, there was no corroboration, whether in the forms of invoices, bills of lading, or photographs, of the claims of loss made by the Plaintiff. For example, the Plaintiff claims that the Defendant lost an original painting, which was painted by “one of the Group of Seven”. She was unable to say which member of the Group of Seven painted the painting, or where or under which circumstances she acquired it, other than to say that she had bought it at an auction for seven hundred dollars ($700.00). She did not have a certificate of authenticity for the painting. There was no confirmation of the provenance of the painting. Furthermore, while the Group of Seven were a group of Canadian landscape painters, famous for their portrayal of the Canadian Shield, the Plaintiff said that her Group of Seven painting, by an unknown artist, was of a tiger.

A painting of a tiger.

A tiger.

By a member of the Group of Seven.

Must have been by Bernie, a lesser known member of the Group of Seven, who specialised in tigers, dogs playing poker, kids with really big eyes or Elvis from his Vegas years, painted - of course - on velvet.

You can only wish you could make this stuff up.

-srbp-

A List of Interesting Things #nlpoli

Follow this one for a second.

In 2005, Kathy Dunderdale – minister responsible for the Rural Secretariat  - announced a raft of appointments to the groups that advise government about rural economic development. One of the appointees is a guy named Ted Lewis from Croque.

In November 2005, Lewis went on a provincial government trade mission to Greenland.  he represented a company called Holson Forest Products.

In July 2008, industry minister Trevor Taylor announced $25,000 in provincial money for a company called Quality North to help it expand its markets for manufactured wood panels into places like Greenland and Iceland.  Quality North was formed in 2006 by three people, one of whom was Ted Lewis of Holson Forest Products

On August 12, 2009, Tom Hedderson - the provincial fisheries minister  - announced that Ted Lewis would take over as chair of the board that approves fish processing licenses.

On August 21, 2009,  then-natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale announced that her department would be giving $10 million to Holson Forest Products  to set up a wood pellet plant in Roddickton.  The head of the company is a guy named Ted Lewis.

By 2011, a news story turned up in the Telegram saying that the company expected to start production in late March.  But, as events unfolded, the company has had trouble shipping pellets because of the cost of routing them through nearby ports. 

Liberal member of the House of Assembly Ed Joyce says he has been having trouble finding out what is happening with the provincial money. The Telegram even wrote an editorial about the problem, largely because one company official complained that the political inquiries were hurting the company.

But if you go to the official record of the House of Assembly, you will see that questions came up in the House on May 15.  On May 16, natural resources minister Jerome Kennedy added some details on the cash:

There was a $10 million investment which included a $7 million repayable loan, a $2 million non-repayable loan, and $1 million under the Green Fund.

Mr. Speaker, Holson has since come back looking for more money and we have indicated that there is only so far as a government that we can go. Beyond Roddickton, we also put $1 million in 2010 to assist harvesters in the Northern Peninsula, of which $830,000 has been spent as of March 31, 2012.

In response to another question in June, Kennedy added even more information.  What’s interesting is that Kennedy used the information to attack the local MHA who had asked a question about something else:

Let me tell you, Mr. Speaker, how this Third Party [the NDP] works. About three weeks ago, I got an e-mail from the Member for The Straits – White Bay North asking if I would meet with him and the owner of the Roddickton plant to discuss what was going on in Roddickton. I wrote him back, Mr. Speaker. I said if Mr. Lewis wishes to meet with me, he can contact me directly. I never heard back from Mr. Lewis.

So what the member opposite did, he tried to interject himself into the middle of the situation. He was obviously told to go away out of it, Mr. Speaker. I would suggest to him that if he is going to come forward with suggestions that he make sure that they are real and they are practical. What we are worried about is keeping this industry alive, keeping Kruger open and benefiting the people of this Province, Mr. Speaker.

And on August 13, 2012, Lewis wrote a letter to the Northern Pen explaining the current shutdown. Lewis said that the company needed to find a cheaper way to ship pellets overseas because the price for pellets dropped right after they got the cash commitment from the provincial government. Now that prices are recovering the lowered value of the Euro is causing problems.

The company is still working on the problem, apparently:

Any investment into either of these ports reduces the feasibility of pellet transportation. Roddickton harbour has the depth of water required and the required land base. With the right facility in Roddickton this and other industries can prosper. Thankfully there are plans moving forward to develop the infrastructure – no commitments yet.

Liberal fisheries critic Jim Bennett is only wondering whether or not the fisheries minister thinks that it’s alright to have the processing plant licensing board run by a guy whose company is on the hook to the province government for the better part of $10 million.

Here’s what Bennett told the Western Star:

"Is Lewis in a perceived conflict of interest in his job as chairperson of the Fish Processing Licensing Board, given that his company owes so much money to the government," Bennett questioned in a press release issued Monday.

Via telephone, Bennett said it was not an accusation, but that he would like the minister to review the appointment to determine whether or not there is a conflict.

Doesn’t that seem rather,  errmmm,  what is the best way to put it?

Oh yes.

Lame-assed.

That’s it, Bennett’s comments are lame-assed, weak, and laughable.

-srbp-

James McLeod’s Three Questions #nlpoli

On his Telegram blog post on Monday, James McLeod posed three questions about the Muskrat Falls debate.

Let’s answer them.

The Great Liberal PIFO Roadshow #nlpoli

On the front page of Tuesday’s Telegram was a story on the provincial Liberal Party’s renewal process. it isn’t available online unless you have a subscription to the paper.

this renewal thing has been going on for a while.  Dean MacDonald, Siobhan Coady, and Kevin Aylward are travelling around the province meeting with people and talking about the future of the provincial Liberals.

The Muskrat Falls Debate (on Twitter) #nlpoli

Over at the Telegram, you’ll find two blog posts that are well worth your time if you want to get more insights into the ongoing discussion about Muskrat Falls.

Political reporter James McLeod goes through the tone of the public discussion about the project.  Geoff Meeker has a post featuring some observations by former premier Roger Grimes.

The two posts wind up complimenting each other and both raise some worthwhile issues.