Cycling through Newfoundland Politics #nlpoli

A couple of recent posts included the invented word “stragedy”.  As some of you figured out, it’s a deliberate combination of strategy and tragedy that reflects the strategic tragedy and the tragic strategy that the provincial Conservatives have been following lately.

That’s what it is, really:  a tragedy.  A political party that only a few years ago was untouchable in any respect is now teetering along on the brink, presumably, of political annihilation.

You’ll hear more and more people talking about this turn of political events as being a cycle.  The Conservatives now are in the same place the Liberals were just before 2003.  Whenever the next election comes, the Liberals will win, just like the Conservatives did in 2003. 

The people who hold this view look at the string of by-election victories point to the victories as proof of the cycle.  And as the Liberals mount up the victories,  other people are persuaded that there must be some truth to the story.

It’s inevitable.

That’s all wonderful, except that it isn’t inevitable, really.

Spending Comparisons #nlpoli

The Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI) released its annual summary of health care spending health care last week. This is a pretty basic collection of numbers that show how much money we spend on health care, whether it is from provincial, federal, or private sources.

The report made the news, as it always does.  The Globe and Mail reported that spending on health care was growing at its lowest rate in 17 years.  fair enough.  They also did a story on how much seniors are costing the health care system.

In that second one, the Globe asked why it is that some provinces pay more per person for health care than others.  Some provinces – like Newfoundland and Alberta – have more money because of oil, said the Globe’s expert.

And if you really didn’t know what was going on, you’d think that made perfect sense.

Mind-Numbing Sameness #nlpoli

The Conservatives were looking to the by-election in Conception bay South to break their losing streak.

As it seems now as voters in the district head to the polls on Wednesday,  Premier Paul Davis is already conceding that CBS is heading Liberal.  He spoke to reporters [CBC Here and Now, 40 mins in] after announcing a $20 million venture capital fund and tax credit scheme.  Davis said that “one of the disadvantages [in politics is that] it takes a long time for people to have an opportunity to identify with the new government,”  what they have done, their work ethic and all that.

Some of you are undoubtedly wrinkling your nose up at that one.  Well you should.  It’s a ridiculous claim given that Davis has just come through a leadership contest and he’s been in office a while. People know all about him and his team and what they are on about. 

More political stragedy #nlpoli

Paul Davis started out as Premier talking about his plan to run a national competition to find a communications director for his office.

There’s been no mention of Davis’ missing communications director as he and his office blunder through the Manning mess.  Then suddenly, on Monday, the talk of a national competition was gone.  Davis appointed one of the departmental communications directors to the job.  Davis also announced a bit of old news, namely that he’d hired Peter Morris from the university to handle something called “strategic communications” in his office and Donna Ivey to handle the media inquiries.

Whatever Morris has been doing, clearly it had nothing to do with strategic communications.  The political disaster doing business as unelected cabinet minister Judy Manning has been proof of that. What you’ve probably got there, as much as anything else, is the current fashion to label everything as “strategic” even when it isn’t.

Davis’ new communications director is Heather MacLean. if she wants to make any big changes,  MacLean’s got a tough job ahead of her.  After all, Davis and his crowd have been ploughing ahead without much sign that they want to change anything.  Inertia is the biggest political enemy the Conservatives have but the Conservatives just like the sameness of it all.

Some of you may recall that Davis was the leadership candidate most committed to keeping things pretty much as they are.  It’s not surprising, then, that when time came to find a director, Davis found one who has been with the Conservatives since the beginning.

That communications news wasn’t the only shift on Monday.

A renaissance feast for Christmas #nlpoli

Fans of politics in Newfoundland and Labrador have two excellent books that should be at the top of their Christmas gift lists this year.

First among unequals: the premier, politics, and policy in Newfoundland and Labrador is a collection of 12 essays on different aspects of recent politics with an introduction, and an opening and closing chapter by Dr. Alex Marland, who, along with Dr. Matthew Kerby, edited the collection.

Newfoundland’s last prime minister by former CBC executive producer Doug Letto is subtitled, not surprisingly,  “Frederick Alderdice and the death of a nation.”

People will  - and should - buy both these books.  They are well written and researched and represent, in their own way, two firsts in local political writing.

The Devil’s Snare #nlpoli

The latest eruption of  the Manning political controversy volcano is evidence of many things.  Not the least is that Premier Paul Davis and his team have a monumental problem in their organization.  It’s the one that steps in to manage political crises. Davis and his crew don’t have one.

So far, they’ve let Judy Manning wander in front of cameras,  call radio open line shows, and continue to do everything in her power to defend herself and justify her actions. She did all of that on Thursday, starting with VOCM’s Fred Hutton,  followed by a call to Open Line with Paddy Daly and finishing up with an interview on NTV. 

Manning gave reporters a couple of e-mails that showed she had, in fact, submitted a couple of draft decisions. Everything else has been a personal attack on her.  Manning even managed to get in a slam at James McLeod from the Telegram over a piece he did a while ago that showed Manning hadn’t finished her master’s program.

All that probably makes Manning feel really good.  It’s possible that the great minds at the Confederation Building think that Judy is doing the right thing. The Conservatives have got a record of handling political problems in this way.  The reality is that they are just making the whole thing worse.

Public Service and Bad Judgment #nlpoli

Shortly after she was appointed to cabinet,  Judy Manning told CBC that she was taking a significant cut in pay from her solo law practice to take the new job as an unelected minister.  “I'm doing this from a public service perspective,”  Manning said at the time.

That was part of her planned responses to questions about Paul Davis’ controversial decision to appoint an unelected minister and break the long-established political convention that unelected ministers seek a seat in the House at the earliest opportunity.

Manning portrayed herself as nobly taking on the job despite the financial hardship.  We should feel sorry for her, presumably, rather than question the arrogant fashion in which she and her boss were breaking the rules.

A couple of weeks later,  in another set of planned replies to questions, Manning blew that noble image to pieces.

The October 2014 NTV/MQO Poll Numbers #nlpoli

NTV commissioned NTV to poll opinion about the provincial Conservatives a month after Paul Davis took over as Premier.

The party choice numbers are simple enough:  Liberals at 37,  Conservatives at 16,  the NDP at just six percent, and undecided at 40.

Leadership numbers Put Dwight Ball of the Liberals slightly ahead of Paul Davis (31 to 27) with Lorraine at 10 and undecided at 33.

The Conservatives who have been clinging to the belief that “satisfaction” with government is the great hope will be dashed to find the most recent “sat” number is 48%, down from 60% just a short while ago for MQO.

So what does it mean?

Things that raise alarm bells #nlpoli

As it becomes more clear that the two recent murders of Canadian soldiers had less to do with terrorism and more to do with people who are otherwise screwed up, the RCMP commissioner issues a media statement claiming the police have a video that links one murder to “ideological and political motives.”

But they can’t release the video and may never release it.

Right.

“We are an island economy” and other nonsense #nlpoli

CBC’s On Point  this weekend delivered up some all-too-familiar conversation on the budget and a political panel talking about Judy Manning but sometimes you have to look closely at things to appreciate the value in public comments by politicians and reporters.

In an interview with David Cochrane, finance minister Ross Wiseman confirmed that he cannot even think about trimming government spending because the economy is heavily dependent on it.  Wiseman put the figure at about 30%.

Regular readers of these e-scribbles have know this for years.  What’s news in this is that we have a finance minister admitting it publicly.

A Greek Tragedy #nlpoli

While you are busily mulling over the possible implications the drop in oil prices might have on the provincial government’s budgets,  distract yourself by pondering some of the other implications of low oil prices on the provincial economy.

The Paris-based International Energy Agency thinks that about 25% of Canadian energy projects would be in jeopardy if oil goes below US$80 a barrel and stays there for any length of time.  As the Financial Post noted in its report last week on the IEA opinion,  that would put a number of newer more expensive projects in Alberta and maybe in Saskatchewan in doubt.  Norway’s Statoil has already shelved an oil sands project.

Globally,  the low prices would also make about three percent of all energy projects dodgy propositions.  Some of those are deep water projects like those in the Orphan Basin offshore Newfoundland. The Orphan isn’t turning up in any of these global forecasts because people don’t know enough about the prospects there to determine if they are even commercially viable.

At the going down of the sun, and in the morning… #nlpoli

 

We will remember them.

 

 

Warrant Officer Patrice Vincent

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  Corporal Nathan Cirillo

 

 

 

 

 

 

-srbp-

Get the police out of politics and politics out of the police #nlpoli

They just don’t look like recruiting ads.

That’s the most striking thing about a series of television ads airing in Newfoundland and Labrador.

There’s no sense of an invitation to come and join the group.  At least, there’s nothing of that in the images themselves.

Consider the number of shots that have the police facing the camera.  The effect puts the viewer in an adversarial position, especially when faced with the tactical team or the riot team in these shots, above and right.

The only place you see the invitation is in the last image, a graphic that looks like this:

Now you get why these ads aren’t really about recruiting.

See it?

Call of Duty meets Police Academy #nlpoli

It’s hard to imagine a more politically tone-deaf set of ads than the three currently in circulation by the Royal Newfoundland Constabulary ostensibly as part of a recruiting campaign.

The 15 - , 30 – , and 60-second spots are all similar. They start with a shot of the police tactical team in black clothes, military helmets and MP-5 automatic weapons, all set to burst into a house. The music is dark and ominous, as are virtually all the images. Even the sequences involving the largely ceremonial mounted patrol take on a decidedly sinister or threatening tone.

Just to give you a sense of how incredibly heavy-handed the Constabulary advertising is, take a look at a Canadian Forces recruiting ad from 2011.  It shows personal challenges and lots of physical activity.  The images are full of light and action. The messaging issues a challenge to a potential recruit based on his or her individual expectations.

Oil and the budget #nlpoli

Lots of people are wondering what the changes to the price of oil will do to the provincial budget.

It will have an impact:  no doubt about that.

But trying to figure out what the provincial budget numbers will look like is a wee bit more complicated.

Double-down Locke #nlpoli

“I didn’t see this coming,”  Memorial University economist Wade Locke told the Telegram’s James McLeod the other day. Locke was talking about the dramatic drop in oil prices over the past week and a half.

The day before, Locke was on VOCM’s morning talk show dismissing this low oil price stuff as just a passing thing.  No biggie.  And while everyone else is figuring the government is headed farther up a financial shit creek of Amazon proportions, Locke was absolutely confident that prices would go back up and all would be right. 

Sure, government might have to do some trimming, Wade offered, but they should do it gradually over time.  Like losing weight, he said.  If I told you that you had to lose 10 pounds, it would be hard to do it quickly.  But over time, much easier to do.

There’s something truly laughable about Locke’s metaphor because basically Wade is to sound management of public money what a Double-Down from KFC is to heart-smart nutrition.

International expert on key Muskrat Falls feature to deliver public talk #nlpoli

People interested in one of the big geological uncertainties that could affect the Muskrat Falls dam will have a chancer to hear from an international expert later this month.

Dr. Stig Bernander,an international expert on quick clay landslides, will deliver a public talk at the LSPU Hall, on Victoria Street, St John’s at 8 pm Thursday, October 30th.  He will discuss quick clay landslides with particular attention to the North Spur, a key feature of the Muskrat Falls dam project.

Quick clay is clay material deposited under marine conditions upwards of 20,000 years ago.  Exposure to rain coupled with a barely perceptible upward pressure can cause quick clay to liquefy.  The North Spur at Muskrat Falls contains quick clay .

The North Spur is a  one kilometre long strip of land that Nalcor plans to use as a natural dam to hold back the Muskrat Falls reservoir. Failure of the North Spur would catastrophically release all the water in the reservoir and inflict serious downstream damage on Happy Valley/Goose Bay and Mud Lake while essentially wiping out the Province’s Muskrat Falls investment.

Bernander’s visit is being organized by a local concerned citizens group.

Bernander was a chief design engineer for Skanska West, a large international design and construction company based in Sweden with worldwide operations. His ground-breaking research on quick clay led to the development of an updated method for assessing quick clay stability under different conditions. His first publication on brittle slope failures was printed 1978 and his calculation method was gradually developed in the years 1981 to 1989.

From 1980 to 1998, Bernander served as a part-time adjunct professor at Luleå Technical University as well as simultaneously heading the Skanska West Department for architecture and engineering design.

-srbp-

What’s in a name? Justice edition #nlpoli

Premier Paul Davis changed the name of the justice department to “public safety”.  The local chapter of the Canadian Bar Association wrote a letter to Davis.  They complained that the government had changed the name of the department without making clear what the new department would do.

So after a couple of weeks of controversy, Davis added the word “justice” back into the department name.  He issued a news release late on Friday afternoon.

Some people think the name change is good.  Some think it is bad.  What’s more interesting is what the episode has revealed about the Conservatives with Paul Davis in charge.

Election Stragedy #nlpoli

Charlene Johnson quit the legislature first.

The chief electoral office has been plugging special ballot voting in the seat she vacated since the early part of October.  For those who don’t know,  you can vote in Newfoundland and Labrador up to 30 days before the writ drops in any election.  In other words, there is no election at all and no candidates but you can vote.  The catch is you have to vote for a party.

Yes, it’s all completely nutty but such is life in Newfoundland and Labrador under the provincial Conservatives.  And yes, SRBP and others have gone through it all many times before.

Anyway,  under changes the Conservatives made to local election laws,  they have to call the by-election in Trinity-Bay de Verde by November 5, 2014.

On Tuesday,  the provincial government announced there will be a by-election in Conception Bay South on November 5, 2014.

Huh?

The Manning – Coleman Correlation #nlpoli

Some people who read The Independent last week thought that there was a debate going on between Hans Rollmann and Drew Brown over Judy Manning’s appointment as attorney general and minister of justice, public safety, and whatever-the-department-name-will-be-tomorrow.

There wasn’t.

The pair agreed on everything, except one minor issue.