Changing the direction. Changing the tone. #nlpoli

A month ago,  a CBC “analysis” by David Cochrane warned against a band of Liberals running the government with too much power.

Two weeks ago,  another CBC “analysis” by David Cochrane told us that Dwight Ball was an “unlikely” fellow to be Premier who now faced an enormous task of dealing with the government’s financial problems based on a campaign platform that was, supposedly, “greeted with enormous skepticism in the final week of the campaign.”

And now we have the latest Cochrane “analysis” that tells us that the public service is liking their new bosses.  The administration has been delivering on “Ball's campaign promises of evidence-based decision-making and to bring [sic] stability to cabinet by ending the practice of frequent shuffles, thereby leaving ministers in place long enough to build command of their portfolios.”

What changed?

Well, it certainly hasn’t been Dwight Ball and the Liberals he led to a substantive victory in the recent election.

The Bonds of Muskrat Falls #nlpoli

15 minutes.

That’s all Tom Marshall said it would take to sell out the bonds on Muskrat Falls.

He also said that a federal loan guarantee would lower electricity prices for consumers from Muskrat falls.

The price one wasn’t true at all, as it turned out, and the bonds aren’t all that popular either.

Revisiting the spring budget: a little thought experiment #nlpoli

Last spring,  SRBP looked at some speculative budget projections using some different prices for oil and  assumed growth in revenue from non-oil sources.

The results weren’t pretty.  The only way to get to a surplus was if you managed to hold spending constant.  Even a modest increase in spending would throw everything out of whack.   And in the one scenario where you got a surplus, it vanished as oil production dropped.

Well, folks, reality turned out to be uglier than the optimistic forecast of the provincial government at the time and its pet economist, Wade Locke.  The assumed average price of oil last spring is now a distant memory.  The most recent forecasts from the United States suggest oil may hover around US$50 a barrel until we are into the next decade.

So let’s take another look at those figures.

Baker Ball's Dozen: three challenges facing the new administration #nlpoli

The new Liberal administration will take power later this morning.

Dwight Ball will lead a cabinet of 12.

This is only the fourth time since 1949 that we have changed the party governing the province. It’ the second time we have done so in this century.

The task ahead of the new cabinet is daunting. From 11:00 AM this morning, everything is down to the baker’s dozen of them. Here are the challenges they face.

The deficit in perspective: HST version #nlpoli

Some people are upset that the provincial sales tax won’t be going up by two percent.

The current harmonized sales tax rate is 13%.

If you wanted to – if it was even possible to – raise enough money to balance the books by hiking the sales tax – the new rate would have to be 41%.

That’s 14 times higher than the cancelled increase.

It’s a bit more than triple the current HST rate.

Clear?

-srbp-

The Tory-gram Returns #nlpoli

And there it was.

Top of the front page. 

Screaming headline.

Economist warns Liberal plan doesn’t make sense.

Right underneath a picture of the new Liberal Premier-in-waiting and the new Prime Minister smiling as they met in Ottawa.  Title: Happy Liberals.

About as objective as Fox News and then you read the story.

Their economist shitting on the Liberals is….

wait for it…

Wade Locke.

Hands up who didn’t just piss themselves laughing?

Friends in high places: changing the HST in a hurry #nlpoli

According to a statement from the federal finance department on Wednesday,  “the federal government will take any necessary steps to ensure that the [HST] rate increase does not come into effect on January 1, 2016.” [CBC]

That came out of the first meeting between Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Premier-designate Dwight Ball.

Ball wrote two federal cabinet ministers last week asking them to do what they needed to do in order to halt the two percent increase in the harmonized sales tax included in the provincial Conservatives’ spring budget.  Ball promised last spring to roll back the rate hike.

He issued a news release about his letter a couple of days before he met with Trudeau. Local media covered it.

But what would have to happen in order to halt the hike?

Good question.

Two solitudes #nlpoli

CBC and the Telegram  carried a story on Tuesday that the province would be hit by a “mild recession” next year. There’s not much real news in that since oil and minerals will all be down in price for the foreseeable future. Major projects are coming to an end.  All known.  All foreseen. But since the Conference Board of Canada issued the release and used the words “mild recession” and so that makes it news.

Later on Tuesday,  everyone carried the story that Premier-designate Dwight Ball had written to the federal government to try and forestall the two percent hike in the harmonised sales tax. Same thing:  news release, therefore news.

At the risk of repeating the same thing again, let’s just recall that the latest change in oil prices means that 36% of government spending this year will be covered by borrowing from the banks.

The sales tax hike won’t make much of a difference this year.  The  $50 million or so it will bring in between January and March will amount to precisely 1.6% of the revised borrowing. It was frig-all before oil dropped. It is even moreso frig-all now when compared to the magnitude of the provincial government’s financial problems.

We can say that revenues won’t be much better next year.  This is another point worth bearing in mind.  The local media have habitually followed slavishly behind the provincial government’s lead over the past decade and talked about last year, not the year coming up. and in truth.  Well, this whole HST thing is another example of chasing mice when the deer are just over the hill.

The Hundred Days #nlpoli

“A new government has a very small amount of time in which to lay the groundwork for its term of office. It has about six months to show things are different and about a year to start showing signs of results. In fact, they really have about 100 days to make a mark, and when it comes to things like re-organizing the departments and getting political and public service staff changes made, they have even less than that.

“The reasons are pretty simple: The outside world wants to figure out what government they really elected. For the government itself, they need to sort out the basics so they can cope with the onslaught of demands that come with the force of a three inch fire hose. Put another way, the new government has a short time to take control of the public agenda. That’s the only way they can filter the workload down to a manageable level, let alone do the things they want to do. Without control of the political agenda, they become followers rather than leaders.”

That’s the first two paragraphs from a column your humble e-scribbler wrote for The Independent was back when it began. It appeared in January 2004 after the Conservatives under Danny Williams had gone through a few less-than-stellar moments.  Go back and read the whole thing to see if any of it applies to current events.

Townies and Baymen (again) #nlpoli

Last week’s post on the political narrative war currently under way was a combination of two separate, but related ideas.

The incoming Liberal administration – like all political parties – is faced with the challenge of identifying itself or defining itself in the public mind.  Inevitably, that also involves the image of and the public attitudes toward the leader.

We’ll turn to the narrative war but first, let’s unbundle the other part of the post, the bit about townies and baymen.  That’s both the most provocative bit for some people and also the bit that is an exploration of some much bigger ideas in Newfoundland politics over the past century.

Voter turn-out #nlpoli

Political scientist Stephen Tomblin is concerned about the low voter turn-out in the recent elections.

Tomblin thinks it is a sign that voters are disconnected from the political system.  The recent lacklustre election didn’t have the political parties connecting with voters in a meaningful way.  There are lots of issues politicians could have discussed with voters but they just didn’t bother.

Tomblin makes some good points but there are some things about recent elections we should consider as we try and put some meaning on the recent election.

The real Ministry of Magic exposed #nlpoli

The information the Conservatives leaked to David Cochrane Tuesday on the budget update confirmed the extent to which they are actually the ones who have been running the finance department as if it was a ministry of magic.

The cash deficit this year looks like it will wind up being almost $3.0 billion.  Bear in mind that the budget the Conservatives introduced last spring called for a 12% increase in spending  - although they talked about restraint - and for borrowing $2.1 billion to cover a record deficit.

Incidentally, the accrual deficit figures leaked to Cochrane by the Tories leave out the $900 million the Conservatives planned to borrow for public works.  You need to look at the cash numbers to understand the magnitude of what the Tories did last spring.

The Narrative War #nlpoli

The day after a massive Liberal victory in the general election,  CBC’s David Cochrane posted an analysis piece on the new administration.  CBC distributed it nationally.

Cochrane described Dwight Ball as a man “unlikely” to be Premier:

Four campaigns. Two losses. Two wins.  By a combined 75 votes.

Cochrane’s account leaves out relevant context.  When it comes to describing how the Liberals won,  Cochrane focuses not on anything the Liberals did but rather a string of Tory blunders that  - according to Cochrane  - made it easy for the Liberals to win the election essentially by accident.

And now, as Cochrane’s story goes, Ball The Unlikely will have to face enormous financial problems using a plan that Cochrane claims “was greeted with enormous skepticism in the final week of the campaign.”

Election Results #nlpoli

Doing things differently.

That’s what the Liberal campaign was all about.

Now we have to see if Ball and the Liberals actually put that into action.

The youtube election #nlpoli

This is the year of the youtube election.

Some of them, like Alison Coffin’s recession pitch or Dan Crummell’s “I live in the district” spot are simple and straightforward. Others, like those of Conservatives Beth Crosbie and Ryan Cleary are so bizarre that they are funny.  On Facebook, Conservative Alison Stoodley identified Browning Harvey as a threat to public health.

All are reminiscent of a string of videos released by John Ottenheimer during the Conservative leadership campaign a year ago.  Ottenheimer, the outsider candidate,  tried to use humour to attract some attention to his effort.

Great candidate quotes #nlpoli

The Telegram did voters a valuable service the last weekend of the campaign by printing responses from candidates in metro districts to two simple questions.

They asked the candidates to identify the single biggest issue in the district and how they would tackle it.

Some of the replies were fascinating.

Kevin Parsons, is in a dogfight for his seat in Cape St. Francis.  He is the only candidate who didn’t reply to the Telegram at all.

Bill Kavanagh, the NDP candidate in Conception Bay East – Bell Island is running on the Liberal platform. He thinks public consultation is extremely important.  He’s right.  What’s interesting here is the NDP and Conservatives are criticising the Liberals for not having enough detail in their platform when they talk about consultation.

Dan Crummell, the Tory seeking re-election in St,. John’s West thinks he is the biggest issue facing the district and all his friends agree with him, apparently.

The best answer to any question came from Ryan Cleary.  It’s probably the most honest comment Cleary’s made since he lied to CBC about how he changed parties:

Cleary: First, I would be shocked if I were elected. … .

-srbp-

What’s the biggest issue facing your district?

Cape St. Francis - Kevin Parsons, Progressive Conservative (PC): No response as of deadline. [Nuff said]

Conception Bay East – Bell Island - Bill Kavanagh, Bell Island, NDP: There is a democratic deficit in this district and it’s a direct result of a lack of public consultation when it comes to decisions made by our politicians. [Interesting given the Liberal platform calls for lots of consultation and public input.  The NDP and Conservatives call that a lack of detail.]

St. John’s West - Dan Crummell, St. John's, Progressive Conservative: Strong and effective representation by someone who lives in the district. [That’s his only talking point]

Windsor Lake - Ryan Cleary, St. John's, PC: Change.

Weight Problems #nlpoli

If you want to know why Forum Research’s poll is out of line with the other polls done on the provincial election, you need look no further than the data tables for the questions.

This is why pollsters should give out this information. Lots don’t.

Polling firms adjust their sample so that the sample matches the population as a who for sex, age, geography, and so on.  It’s called weighting.

Forum notes that where “appropriate,  the data has been statistically weighted by age, region, and other variables to ensure that the sample reflects the actual population according to the latest Census data.”

That’s where you get the problem.

Abacus poll confirms massive Liberal lead #nlpoli

Residents of Newfoundland and Labrador awoke Thursday to a massive sucking noise as amateur pundits, media commentators, and newsrooms across the province realised they’d read way too much into a single poll on Wednesday.

A new Abacus Data poll shows the Liberal are actually on track to sweep the entire House of Assembly.  The results contradict a lone poll by  Forum Research that had the Conservative miraculously closing the gap with the Liberals.

Never happened, as it turned out.  Every other poll taken during the campaign lines with the latest Abacus poll.  What’s more  the behaviour of the Tory and Dipper campaigns confirms what serious political watchers already knew:  Paul Davis and Earle McCurdy are desperately trying to save the furniture in the face of a potential Liberal tsunami.

The Leaders

The provincial election campaign a decidedly nastier turn on Monday. Conservative leader Paul Davis is trying his best to save the party’s furniture.

Davis’ best is nasty stuff.

Davis called Dwight Ball a liar.

Rarely does one politician openly attack another using words like that.  They try to remain civil and respectful.  Davis is the first Premier since Confederation who, facing imminent defeat at the polls, has thrown any trace of decency out the window.

Selling energy assets a good thing: Danny Williams #nlpoli

 

“It was a previous Liberal government that wanted to actually privatize Hydro. This particular government wants to strengthen Hydro, wants to make it a very valuable corporation: a corporation that will ultimately pay significant dividends back to the people of this Province; a corporation that perhaps some day may have enough value in its assets overall as a result of the Hebron deal and the White Rose deal, possible Hibernia deal, possible deals on gas, possible deals on oil refineries and other exploration projects, where hopefully we might be able to sell it some day and pay off all the debt of this Province, and that would be a good thing.”

Premier Danny Williams, House of Assembly, 30 April 2008

-srbp-