Rumpole and Justice Delayed (2009) #nlpoli

There is no question that our system provides a great method for adjudicating questions of fact and law, but given the expenditure of public funds we are obliged to the people of Newfoundland and Labrador to provide the best possible system in terms of the efficiency of the process.

Report of the Task Force on Criminal Justice Efficiencies, February 2008

Administrative changes recommended by a committee of lawyers and judges to improve the province’s justice system still haven’t been implemented over 18 months after they were made public.

In December 2007, newbie justice minister Jerome Kennedy appointed a task force that included deputy minister Chris Curran, then Chief Provincial Court Judge Reg Reid and Mark Pike, the current associate chief judge, among others.  They issued their report in February 2008because they were specifically directed “to make recommendations and to meet any necessary budgetary deadlines for the ensuing fiscal year.”

The committee agreed that “with appropriate leadership, goodwill and resources, its recommendations could be fully implemented by the fall of 2008.”

Trevor's duck and cover explained

Trevor Taylor, part-time substitute fisheries minister in the Provincial Conservative government has been busily ducking a looming issue in the fisheries world.  In a system already grossly overstocked with processing capacity, Taylor's department has a recommendation under consideration to add a few more licenses.

The local CBC fisheries broadcast has been trying desperately to get Taylor on the air.

He's been unavailable.

Apparently, Trevor's been too busy campaigning against Fabian Manning, not in his free time or anything mind you but during the day time  - normal government working hours - when one might expect he could have found a few hours to devote to his custodial responsibilities in the fish department.

Seems Trevor has been joined on the hustings by attorney general Jerome Kennedy and intergovernmental affairs genius Tom Hedderson. 

You will recall Hedderson as the guy writing letters to Ottawa last June lobbying on a decision that was made...18 months earlier.

Trevor sees no problem with this carrying on partisan family fights during daylight hours.

Trevor also decided on Monday to issue a news release criticizing the federal government for a deal giving 1500 tonnes of yellowtail flounder from Canada's NAFO allocation to the Americans.

But sure Trevor and the boys are supporting the ABC campaign, you say.

Yes, sez your humble e-scribbler, but don't forget the real motivation for all these cabinet ministers to join in the Family Feud.

There's a big cabinet shuffle coming very shortly.  Being seen out there hammering away at The Boss' favourite cause is much better for the old career path than spending time doing other things, like say the job you get paid to do.

Oh.  That's right. 

Trevor did find time in his hectic hectoring schedule to call the Fisheries Broadcast and do an interview.

But that was after one of his predecessors outed him on the Family Feud thing.

-srbp-

The rewards of planning an organization #nlpoli

While the Liberals in this province shuffle aimlessly toward the political gloom, their Nova Scotia brothers and sisters actually have enough cash in the bank that they can take $2.3 million and put it into a new thin-tank.

Nova Scotia’s Liberals have long been dogged by their controversial trust fund. 

But the Grits finally put the decades-old issue to bed at their annual general meeting in Halifax on Saturday. 

Liberal Party president John Gillis said the party is divesting itself of $2.3 million in the fund to help establish a think-tank, the Allan J. MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Government. 

Gillis told the meeting the new institute will honour a distinguished Nova Scotian who has dedicated his life to public service. A retired senator, MacEachen was a long-time federal Liberal cabinet minister and is an Order of Canada recipient.

Just think about that.

Meanwhile, the local Liberals are the better part of a million bucks in the hole with not much chance of paying it off in the near future.

- srbp -

That and a buck fifty… #nlpoli

Former natural resources minister Shawn Skinner thinks that the Progressive Conservatives can turn around their current abysmal polling numbers if once they get beyond Muskrat Falls and turn their attention to other things.

Skinner was part of the political panel this weekend for On Point with David Cochrane.

Well,  that and a buck fifty and you have a cup of coffee.

The (un)booming economy and population growth

“Bullshit,” wrote philosopher Harry Frankfurt a few years ago, “is unavoidable whenever circumstances require someone to talk without knowing what he is talking about.”

Enter Danny Williams, Doc O’Keefe, and Tom Hann.

The  T’ree Amigos dismissed the Conference Board of Canada’s recent population projection for the province with the simple argument that the booming economy  in the province - due largely to oil - would attract people here in droves.

That’s a really interesting idea because we can actually look at the evidence available to see if that might be true.  The province has been doing very well economically for the past decade.  Arguably, the province was even doing fairly well for the decade before that, compared to the 1970s and 1980s what with oil development that started in the early 1990s.

So what happened?

Danny Williams resignation: Bond Papers news story of 2006

While many stories vied for contention, Danny Williams' resignation is Bond Paper's news story of the year for 2006 and Danny Williams is the newsmaker of the year.

Williams announced his resignation - actually that he would not seek a third term in 2011 - in comments made to VOCM and then repeated in subsequent year-end interviews.

Williams' resignation, likely to come in 2009 or 2010 after a decision on the Lower Churchill, comes at the end of a year of continued set-backs for the premier who has been in equal measures petulant and posturing.

His announcement will further limit his ability to accomplish anything of substance on his own agenda in his remaining time in office. His cabinet and caucus will be reluctant to implement major initiatives that would limit harm their political fortunes and as government members begin to jockey for the leadership, government operations will slow.

Hebron fails

The past year marked a turning point for the Williams administration. The first setback was the collapse of negotiations on the Hebron oil field. After achieving an apparent agreement on January 26 covering royalties and local benefits, Williams introduced new conditions for a settlement including a 4.9% "equity stake" and so-called super-royalties that would see the province collect additional royalties as long as oil prices stayed above US$50 per barrel.

Bond Papers attributed the failure of the Hebron talks to a combination of a miscalculation by the Premier and a fundamental conflict of interest in the negotiations that saw the future equity partner sitting as the province's chief negotiator on benefits and royalties.

The economic impact of the Hebron failure was immediate. Housing prices in the St. John's area dropped dramatically, with some reporting a 25% decline in higher end properties. Oil companies drastically reduced their local offices. Chevron, for example, redeployed the 60 or so staffers working on Hebron, leaving behind a skeleton crew of five or six to oversee Chevron interest in existing production.

In April, Husky Energy's John Lau said the company would sideline its reported interest in natural gas exploration pending release of the province's gas royalty regime in the fall of 2006. By the end of 2006, Williams delayed announcement of the royalty regime and the province's energy plan until sometime in 2007.

The local oil and gas industry looked forward to starting construction of a major new field at Hebron. Construction was expected to pump the better part of $2.0 billion into the local economy and the royalty projections held the provincial government would receive between CDN$8.0 and CDN$10.0 billion in royalties over the life of Hebron production. Industry insiders anticipated the positive mood resulting from a Hebron deal would boost exploration which had recently seen increasing interest.

Instead, activity is likely to shrink with no construction at all and drilling programs. A decision on developing South Hibernia's 300 million barrels of light sweet crude has been delayed, with insiders speculating that the Williams administration will veto any approval of the project by the offshore regulatory board. A recent land sale by the board saw three parcels receiving no bids. In another sale, six of eight parcels received bids with the work commitments being primarily for seismic research. Delineation drilling on existing fields is largely completed and the only exploration drilling planned for 2007 is a pair of wells in the deep waters of the Orphan Basin.

More slipping and sliding in the oil patch

Williams met the Hebron failure with threats of expropriation, a tactic he tried with Abitibi Consolidated and its Stephenville operation. When Williams tried to elicit federal support for so-called fallow field powers, he was rejected flatly by Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper. This was one of several examples of Williams' inability to gain support in Ottawa.

Williams was also shut down in efforts to install St. John's mayor Andy Wells as chairman and chief executive officer of the offshore regulatory board. The federal government under Paul Martin was prepared to appoint Wells as chairman of the board, but Williams rejected the offer in favour of an effort to have Wells occupy both positions. An independent arbitration panel rejected Williams' choice in favour of a candidate who met all the provincial government's agreed upon selection criteria.

The successful candidate was forced to take legal action to secure his appointment. Williams fought the action, inventing a definition of one clause of the Atlantic Accord that was soundly rejected by the province's Supreme Court.

Lard of the Rings

In year-end interviews, Premier Danny Williams described the House of Assembly scandal as his single greatest regret of 2006. The province's auditor general alleged that some $4.4 million had been inappropriately spent by the legislature between 1997 and 2005. The accusations - which included members in all parties - cost Williams one of his senior ministers and cast a pall over the entire legislature.

But the handling of the scandal suggests Williams may be unwilling or unable to address serious problems. The Auditor General's reports account for less than half the overspending during the period. Williams has been contradicted by his finance minister - Loyola Sullivan [left]- on at least one occasion, namely the question of recovering money allegedly misappropriated. Williams favoured waiting until all investigations and reviews were finished; Sullivan moved to recover money from five current and former members of the legislature immediately.

In a broader sense though, Sullivan's continued handling of the file suggests problems within the administration that speak directly to the Premier's inability to control his administration or his reluctance to do so. Either way, the problems are deep.

Sullivan has been a member of the legislature's management committee for much of the period currently being investigated by three separate agencies. As well, he has been minister of finance since 2003 and has such has been or ought to have been aware of overspending. Bond Papers demonstrated that some of the most significant overspending occurred in the years after the October 2003 election.

Yet Sullivan remains as finance minister and cabinet has approved investigations and reviews which specifically avoid looking at actions by the legislature's Internal Economy Commission. As finance minister, Sullivan received the reports from Auditor General John Noseworthy [right] that alleged misappropriations and overspending.

The existence of this fundamental conflict of interest suggest that the premier is either unwilling or unable to take decisive action. The ease with which Sullivan won the fight over repayments suggests Williams is increasingly impotent within his own cabinet.

Sullivan's power: the clash over Equalization

This is not the first or most example of Sullivan's ability to contradict his boss in public and win. In the 2004 federal election, Sullivan endorsed the Conservative's Equalization plans while Williams publicly declared their impact could not be calculated.

In 2005/2006, Williams declared that the provincial government officially favoured inclusion of all provincial revenues in Equalization calculations as part of an overall reform of the major federal transfer to the provinces. Sullivan endorsed Harper's proposal.

By mid-2006, Williams was picking fights with Ottawa but based entirely on the position Sullivan had favoured. Sullivan's political partner, federal cabinet minister Loyola Hearn praised Sullivan as being the best negotiator on behalf of the province. This was a direct and calculated slap at Williams who bills himself as built a reputation for negotiating good deals on behalf of clients and avoiding bad deals.

Williams' political impotence likely to grow

Bond Papers selected Danny Williams as newsmaker of the year for the obvious and significant impact he had on the province and its economy in 2006. That impact will continue in 2007. The full - and likely negative - impact of the Hebron failure will be seen in the years beyond Williams' planned departure. In the same way, the full impact of Williams' announced departure from the premier's office will have an increasing impact on public life over the next three years. For that reason, Williams' resignation is the news story of this year.

By his own calculation, Williams' last years in politics will be focused on developing the Lower Churchill. A "go/no-go" decision is expected in 2009. It is possible there will be a flurry of activity in the months leading up to the fall 2007 general election and immediately after, but experience suggests otherwise.

Williams' administration has been characterised by extreme slowness in implementing even the most simple of initiatives. It took six months after his first cabinet was sworn in to find names for his departments. His own department - Business - languished for three years without staff appointments. The energy plan - inherited from previous Liberal administrations - has taken a further three years to develop under Williams and is slated for release some time in 2007.

An accountability act that was supposedly the centrepiece of Williams' ethics agenda sat un-proclaimed until December. It was only proclaimed after public criticism from the province's auditor general but even then departments and agencies have been given a further two years - until 2008 - to comply.

Typically, though, lame duck first ministers are unable to implement major initiatives the closer they get to leaving office. The reason is simple: those who will carry on, especially his likely successor won't want to take political hits on his behalf. The new leader will want as free a hand as possible to bring in his or her own agenda once in office.

The period from Brian Tobin's departure in October 2000 to Roger Grimes' swearing-in in early 2001 was a period of near complete inactivity within the provincial government. As a general election grew closer, Grimes' administration was unable or unwilling to implement any major initiatives that would likely draw public criticism. Senior public servants grew tired of complaining of the impotence of cabinet collectively.

The same thing occurred in 1988/89 in the period after Brian Peckford announced his resignation. It also occurred in 1979 in the wake of Frank Moores' departure.

The growing leadership fight within the Progressive Conservative party will be one of the other sources of friction within an administration already known for gear-grinding tardiness. Prospective leaders will devote increasing amounts of time to luring political support. Even if Williams requires declared candidates to resign from cabinet, political attention will inevitably turn increasingly away from governing and towards leadership issues for 12 to 18 months before Williams departure.

None have declared yet but early speculation suggests several current ministers will look to replace their current boss. Loyola Sullivan is a former party leader with a strong power base. Tom Rideout [left], currently fisheries minister and deputy premier, is a former premier who has longed to get his old job back. InTRD minister Trevor Taylor has potential.

Williams may shuffle his cabinet early in 2007 to change assignments. In the current cabinet configuration, any leadership fight involving Sullivan and Rideout - for example - has the potential to paralyse cabinet with two senior ministers jockeying for advantage. A change of assignments would also allow Williams to shrink from public scrutiny and focus on the one thing that may be his legacy: a Lower Churchill deal.

No matter how you assess the situation, there's no escaping the conclusion: Danny Williams' resignation is not only the news story of 2006, it will be be at the heart of news for the next three years.

-srbp-

So then what will they do? #nlpoli

Let’s make no bones about it. 

Even at the deepest darkest moments after the death of Meech Lake, federal-provincial relations were never as bad as they are right now between the crowd in Ottawa and the crowd in Sin Jawns.

Danny Williams put all his political credibility into his anything but Conservative campaign.  He pledged to campaign across Canada to defeat the federal Conservatives.

Williams lost.

Big time.

Sure he changed his goal at the end – as his failure became painfully obvious - and all the local media just repeated his reimagined version of the ABC campaign, but the truth is Williams screwed himself and the rest of us politically with his little ego-stunt.

Kathy Dunderdale decided the best way to fix that was to campaign for Harper in the next election.  Okay, well she thought it best to say she would campaign.  Whether she did or not depends on who you talk to.

And that worked out so well that the Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador can’t get the Prime Minister of Canada to return her phone calls.

The latest idea Kathy had was to give the deputy minister of the intergovernmental affairs secretariat a new job.  He will spend an unspecified amount of time “conducting a horizontal review of federal-provincial agreements to determine their efficiency and effectiveness.”

Does that mean Sean will lie down while he studies?

Seriously.

WTF is a “horizontal review”?

Now this is such an important initiative that the only word of it is in a news release announcing yet another shuffle around of members of the senior public service.  Sean gets this new gig.  Meanwhile, someone will fill in for him. 

No word on what criteria Sean will use to determine efficiency and effectiveness or indeed what federal-provincial agreements they are including in the review.  Most likely it is the deals that shift federal cash into provincial hands so the hands can hand it out to other provincial hands.

These agreements cover things like the federal gas tax transfer to municipalities,  money for bridges,  and big transfers for health, social assistance,  and education.

We are talking big money, too. Last year, federal transfers to the provincial government totalled more than $1.0 billion.

No word on how long Sean will take.

And there’s no word about what the government will do with Sean’s report once he gets it done.

Perhaps Kathy will call Steve and…

Errr… maybe that might not be such a good idea.

- srbp -

Truth in small things #nlpoli

If the truth may be found in the smallest of things, then the shifts and changes in Kathy Dunderdale’s second cabinet reveal a great deal.

“It is very important to me that our government operates as efficiently as possible, while providing quality programs and services that meet the needs of the people of our province,” said Premier Dunderdale. “Re-aligning departments and adjusting ministries to ensure they are best positioned to take on the challenges and opportunities before us is very important.”

Here’s how the official news release laid out the re-aligning and adjusting:

• Combine the old Human Resources, Labour and Employment department with the post-secondary education section of the Education department to create the  Department of Advanced Education and Skills.  The new department will “focus on supplying highly educated graduates and skilled workers for a fast-growing economy.”
• Merge the aboriginal affairs department with the Intergovernmental Affairs department to create the Department of Intergovernmental and Aboriginal Affairs.
• Put the Business department with Innovation, Trade and Rural Development to create Innovation, Business and Rural Development.

This release puts the big information at the back end.  Eliminating the business department ends an eight year fiasco. In effect, the Conservatives created the “business” department in 2003 by breaking off some sections of the industry, trade and rural development department.  Now they’ve just put it all back the way it was, complete with the Beaton Tulk-era Rural Secretariat

After eight years of accomplishing nothing, the Conservatives have just put the economic development resources of government back to where they were in 2003. Danny Williams created the department to give a vehicle for his personal business acumen to create thousands of jobs and single-handedly produce a economic miracle in the province.  Williams did nothing while he was minister of his own department, often going weeks without meeting his deputy minister. He handed it off to a succession of second and third tier ministers like Fairity O’Brien or Paul Oram.  Even someone like Ross Wiseman couldn’t do anything except make speeches and hand out gobs of free cash to private companies.

The result of those eight years is a very fragile economy is is more heavily dependent than ever on government spending. The new minister – Keith Hutchings – has exactly zilch in the experience department when it comes to economic development:

Mr. Hutchings graduated from Memorial University with a Bachelor of Arts, Majoring in Political Science and obtained a Certificate in Public Administration from Memorial, as well as an Occupational Health and Safety Program from Ryerson University in Toronto.

Mr. Hutchings’ professional career has included 11 years with the Workplace Health, Safety and Compensation Commission. He also served as Chief of Staff and Executive Assistant to then Leader of the Official Opposition in the Provincial House of Assembly (1996 -1998) and successfully ran his own consulting business.

The Intergovernmental and Aboriginal Affairs department basically recreates what used to exist 20 years and more ago as the Intergovernmental Affairs secretariat, and adds Labrador Affairs and the non-profit and voluntary secretariat for good measure. The first two are relatively small, functionally oriented sections that could easily be rolled inside the Executive Council where they once lived.  The latter two sections are meaningless political sops that serve only to increase bureaucracy without enhancing service delivery. Dunderdale could have eliminated them entirely while likely improving the overall efficiency of government.

The ministry went to newbie Keith McGrath in order to make sure there was a cabinet minister from Labrador. This reorganization is a minor administrative change.

The new Advanced Education department actually combines the pre-2003 post-secondary education ministry with the department that handled job training programs.  That’s it. 

The organization makes sense if it was aimed solely at ensuring that the provincial job-training resources lined up to meet – belatedly – the labour crunch in the province. 

Adding Memorial University to the mix could severely hinder the university’s development by burying it inside a department aimed at something other than what it does.  Memorial doesn’t exist in order to be a glorified trade school.

This is Joan Burke’s big reward for backing Dunderdale, nothing more, nothing less.

What’s more interesting about the labour market focus of the department is that it won’t include any of the labour relations elements.  They are all part of the provincial government’s traditional function of regulating industry and ensuring a healthy and productive labour relations climate.

But under the most recent re-organization, the Workplace Health, Safety and Compensation Commission reports to the government services department and the labour relations agency reports to the environment department. Such a re-alignment ensures that the “silos” the new minister claims the re-organization would cure remain in place.

In  every other respect and distinct from these three adjustments, the departmental organization stays the same. 

When it comes to who got a new job and who didn’t, those seemingly small points also tell a larger story.

Besides Joan Burke, Susan Sullivan got a big reward for her political loyalty to the Premier. She takes over the health portfolio.  Sullivan may not feel quite so lucky in a few weeks or months – health is a difficult portfolio – but it is the largest department and the one that typically goes to those the Premier holds in high regard. If she does well, Sullivan could become a contender to replace Dunderdale when the Premier leaves before 2015.

Jerome Kennedy’s new gig at natural resources gives him a well-deserved respite from the health minister’s job. Kennedy took over that job at a hard time and navigated the department though some tough times.  he got out of it with both his health and his reputation intact.  That’s a rare achievement.

At natural resources, Kennedy faces the challenge of mounting problems with the Muskrat Falls project.  Kennedy can be a forceful proponent for an argument like Muskrat Falls.  He can also be a diligent house-cleaner when problems occur. if Dunderdale had to kill off Muskrat, Kennedy could handle that effectively too.

In the next four years, Kennedy will also have to deal with the border issue in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and the future of a string of law suits related to the Lower Churchill. 

Danny Williams appointed Kathy Dunderdale to natural resources safe in the knowledge that he was really looking after things.  He didn’t need a minister who understood much and Dunderdale fit the bill.  With Kennedy, Dunderdale has a minister who will – in all likelihood – lead this crucial department in more than name only and take the heightened public profile along with it.  Kennedy could be well set when Dunderdale leaves.

Kennedy’s appointment as Government House Leader is a clear sign the Conservatives are going to approach the legislature with a strong arm and an iron fist.

Darin King took the poisoned chalice of fisheries in the recent cabinet shuffle.  The provincial Conservatives haven’t been able to find a policy they can all agree on.  As a result, the fishery remains a festering political pustule that breaks from time to time, splattering the minister of the moment. King can kiss his leadership aspirations good-bye.

Derrick Dalley got the Conservatives’ community pork portfolio as minister of  tourism, culture and recreation.  He succeeds Terry French who got a quiet and relatively easy portfolio in what is usually the home of ministers on the way into cabinet or those on the way out.

- srbp -

More mumbo on the mumbo-jumbo #nlpoli

Keith Russell apologized on Tuesday for comments he made a week ago about the religious beliefs of some aboriginal people in Labrador:

I don’t buy into the mumbo jumbo about the trail leading to the Muskrat Falls site as being sacred ground. You can romanticize and sensationalize that particular piece of land all you want, but it is a resource.

As CBC reported, Russell issued a written statement:

With regards to my recent comment about Muskrat Falls, I apologize for my poor choice of words,

There it is: apology.  Job done.

Well… yeah but read a bit more.

Trash, Give-aways, and Conservative Policy #nlpoli

Friday is trash day in the world of political communications. It’s the day when you slip out stuff that is unpleasant in the hopes people will miss it.

If you can slide in another story, like say the completely unnecessary appointment of a finance minister who will have the job for a mere two weeks or so, it’s possible you can bury one load of trash under another.

That’s what happened last Friday in St. John’s.

Cabinet documents and deliberations #nlpoli

One of the big changes Bill 29 made to the province’s access to information law was to give a list of documents that could not be released under the Access to Information and Protection of Privacy Act because they were cabinet documents.

Before then, the law in Newfoundland and Labrador, like the similar laws in the rest of the country merely said that people couldn’t get anything that would make public what the cabinet ministers talked about, in private, among themselves.  A British Columbia government policy manual explains why:

Premature disclosure of Cabinet deliberations inhibits the ability of Cabinet members to debate issues openly and freely, thereby reducing the effectiveness of Cabinet’s decision making role.

One of the reasons no one bothered to define a cabinet document and bar that from disclosure is that no one could really say what a cabinet document is.  People who’ve never dealt with cabinet or who have never had occasion to think about these things wouldn’t understand that how cabinet operates can vary widely from first minister to first minister.  The changes made in Bill 29 reflect how cabinet operates these days but Paul Davis or any of the ministers who come along later may run cabinet in such a way that most of those mandatory exemptions of certain pieces of paper won’t matter a bit.

There’s no firm rule as to who may sit in the room with cabinet.  Some administrations have allowed only  the clerk of the council and a deputy clerk into the room to provide administrative support.  Other people may come into the room and make a presentation but they get shuffled out of the room before cabinet discusses anything. In other administrations, they’ve had all sorts of hangers-on sitting in the room.  Most often, the extra bodies are senior political people from the first minister’s office.

At times,  the Executive Council hasn’t included everyone with a ministerial portfolio.  And on occasion pretty well every cabinet will throw everyone out of the room and discuss something entirely among themselves.  But there might never be a paper for them to read in advance, a note, a presentation or anything of the sort.

To give you a sense of how cabinets operate,  consider that, until 1989,  cabinet didn’t keep minutes like most boards and committees do.  Cabinet met.  They talked about things.  The only record of any decision would be the official “minute” issued by the cabinet secretariat and approved by the lieutenant governor.  That’s what made the decision the legal authority someone would need to carry it out.

Even the form of the minute varies.  These days,  it includes a list of people who get a copy.  There’s a number on it and the actual statement of the decision includes all sorts of references to the authority cited for making the decision. 

Go back a hundred years and you will find piles of these minutes.  They might be as little as a sentence or two.  The certified minutes, the ones that needed the Governor’s signature, were written out long-hand in a book the Governor kept.

That’s where things get interesting.  Note that the minute above refers to a meeting of the committee of the Executive Council.  The ones a century ago that your humble e-scribbler has been reading lately say pretty much the same thing.  That’s the another way of saying the Executive Council without the lieutenant governor present for the meeting.  These days it is unheard of for the Queen’s representative to attend any meeting of the council, federal or provincial, here in Britain or anywhere else.  A century ago,  a committee of the council – cabinet ministers without the Governor  - met to discuss all sorts of routine things, including budgets.

Back then, there were meetings of the Executive Council.  They took place at Government House and, as near as your humble e-scribbler can figure, they included the Governor. A good example was the meeting held at 3:30 p.m. August 7, 1914 to decide on the Newfoundland contribution to the war.  You can hunt for any record of the meeting in the cabinet papers and you’ll never find a mention.  We know it happened, though, because the Governor refers to to it in letters.  There’s a specific note in his type-written daily diary and the Prime Minister mentions it in a letter or two written around the same time.  We know they discussed a proposal drafted by the Governor two days beforehand, apparently based on discussions with the Prime Minister.  The version cabinet approved is not exactly what the Governor proposed.

There’s no record of that meeting, though, just as there is no record or any other meeting of the whole council during the period from about 1908 to 1914.  There might be others but YHE-S hasn’t gotten to them yet.

There’s nothing odd about that, by the way.  The British cabinet didn’t keep any record of decisions until after the war started.  There could sometimes be a huge gulf among ministers about what, if anything, they’d discussed and decided.  The only formal record of any sort through most of the 19th century was a letter written weekly by successive Prime Ministers to the Queen, for her information.  Even then, what the Prime Minister said cabinet discussed and agreed on might not be what ministers recalled.

Incidentally, for those who might be wondering about the endless trips to Government House to appoint ministers lately, you need only check the Executive Council Act to see that it wasn’t necessary:  “The Lieutenant-Governor in Council” – meaning the whole cabinet – “on the advice of the Premier may appoint a minister as acting minister for another minister during the absence or incapacity for any cause of that other minister, and all acts of an acting minister shall have the same effect as if done by the minister in whose place he or she is acting.” 

They’ve appointed acting ministers countless times over the past decade,  most often to cover off Charlene Johnson when she was on one kind of leave or another.  Tom Marshall could have done exactly the same thing as ministers quit for one reason or another. The only question is why he chose to swear in new ministers and shuffle his cabinet around all the time.

-srbp-

The Jim Bennett Effect #nlpoli

Having tried to slide by without renewing their party,  the provincial Conservatives are now talking up the joys of change.

They’ve talked about everything else. 

Change is the only thing they haven’t talked about.

So now it’s their new talking point.

Problem is that they don’t seem to be doing much to … well… change.

Family reasons #nlpoli

The story flopped out on Friday morning,  broken by VOCM, based presumably on information that came directly from Charlene Johnson herself.

We can presume that because as the rest of the newsrooms caught up to VOCM,  Johnson confirmed that the story was generally true.  As CBC reported, “Johnson said she wants to leave because of family concerns. Her husband now works overseas. As well, she is the mother of a young daughter.”

The eulogies for her political career were quick and generally laudatory. Some picked up on the line from her commentary that she was leaving because of family considerations and pronounced it entirely right and just.  Her husband was working out of the country and her young daughter was just five years old. 

Good for you, girl, they clucked in paternalistic approval.  Someone claimed out that Johnson had broken new ground by being the first politician to give birth while in office.  She’d challenged the conventions, so the claim went, and forced the legislature to consider new rules about parental leave and responsibilities.  The political panel assembled for this week’s On Point over at CBC all thanked Charlene for her years of service and wished her well.

All wonderful stuff, except that “family reasons” is an excuse so worn out from over-use and, as in Johnson’s case, misuse, such that it is not a cliche.  “Family reasons” is beyond that.  It is now a code word for something else.

And everyone knows it is bullshit.

The deafening silence

Federal finance leprechaun Jim Flaherty has been signaling the need to cap the Equalization system this year.

"It's a federal program; we will put a limit on the growth of it," Mr. Flaherty said. "This is not something that is discretionary. We must do this, otherwise the integrity of the program will be under attack."

Flaherty says that in the face of a possible federal deficit for the first time in ages (i.e. the last time the Conservatives ran the place), it won't be possible to have a 15% annual increase in the funds allocated to the federal transfer.

Based on government data, federal transfers to other levels of government have surged 57% in the past five years, to $46.1-billion in the most recent fiscal year from $29.3-billion in 2003-04.

"In this time of fiscal uncertainty, we cannot sustain that rate of growth," Mr. Flaherty said this week.

Flaherty is likely to lay out the whole thing for his provincial counterparts at a meeting in Toronto on Monday. 

Newly minted provincial finance minister Jerome Kennedy will be at the meeting.

Okay.

For the past five years, the current Provincial Conservative administration has been hammering away at the need for increasing federal transfer payments to Newfoundland and Labrador.

For the past two, the entire Family Feud between the Provincial Conservatives and the their federal cousins centred on an effort to get Equalization payments in addition to oil and gas revenues, even if, under ordinary circumstances, Newfoundland and Labrador wouldn't qualify for the Equalization top-up.  In fact, this idea of getting effectively 200% of oil revenues  (all the cash plus Equalization hand-outs) is the original demand Danny Williams made to Paul Martin. 

That's why it is so bizarre that the provincial government talked about anything but Flaherty's remarks over the past couple of days.

Trivia was the order of the day at the cabinet shuffle and what wasn't trivia was pretty much stock stuff. Take a look at the raw scrum tape - via CBC - and you'll see the lightweight routine.

There's a reference to being fine on the current budget, without understanding that means increasing public debt if the budget targets are met.

There's some slagging of the oil sands and a claim that there won't be any delay on Hebron. No one apparently noticed that the Hebron project hasn't been sanctioned yet.  How exactly can you forecast "no delay" in a project that has no timeline yet?

The ultimate superficial commentary came on the matter of representation.  In Ottawa, there's not a problem since it's like the local cabinet where everyone looks after everything everywhere. Later on, the Premier refers to Susan Sullivan and filling in the hole in the dough, giving proper cabinet representation for a region of the province not previously represented in the Conservative cabinet.  Sarah Palin couldn't have reasoned it anymore consistently, right down to insisting - in a manner of speaking - that a little fellow from up the shore could see Labrador from his house.

But nothing of the substantive issues facing the province, beyond a comment that there might theoretically be some difficulty in forecasting oil prices.

As for the consistent set of demands from the current cabinet for more cash hand-outs from Ottawa and Jim Flaherty's comments, there was nary a peep either from the cabinet or from reporters.

The silence was deafening.

Well, except for the CBC audio picking up messages coming to the Blackberries in the room.

The end result is that one wonders what, exactly will be the policy direction taken by cabinet "on a go forward basis".  Until now, the cabinet has been fairly consistent in its remands for reparations from Ottawa, in its insistence that it can go-it-alone provided Ottawa ponies up the cash. The same ministers sit in place today, with a very minor number of exceptions, as sat in place in October 2003.

Yet, there is an evident change in perspective.

It can't be driven by the prospect of going off the Equalization system.  That was forecast in 2004, even without the subsequent transfer deal with Paul Martin.

There's something else behind it.

You can tell by what isn't being said.

-srbp-

Cabinet stir

Shake-up suggests a substantive change.

This is more like a minor shuffle, a bit of a stir in cabinet as a few people around the table exchanges files, switch nameplates and scrape their chairs a bit on the floor changing places around the table.

It represents some tactical shifts but the cabinet remains remarkably the same despite the dismal performance of some of the ministers.  Some of the most dismal even got promotions.

1.  Biggest Feature:  Moving Jerome Kennedy to finance from justice gives one of the heirs apparent to the Premier's job some experience in dealing with the full spread of government activities.

2. Old news to Bond readers:  At the same time, moving a strong-willed minister into the portfolio at this point should make it clear that the provincial books are going to be tightened or, at the very least, any groups looking for government cash are going to have quite a racket on their hands.

"We are also shifting gears from a prosperous time to a more stringent time, for want of a better word," said Williams, whose government projected a $544-million surplus in the spring budget, based largely on high oil prices.

"It could be a tough period we're going to go through as well," Williams added.

Could be?  More like "count on it".

3.  No surprise: Kathy Dunderdale, fronting for the premier in natural resources adds the title "deputy premier" to her list of responsibilities.  She's been acting in this capacity and the extra title is recognition of her ability to follow instructions or least be less than forthcoming with embarrassing facts.

4.  Still one short:  Susan Sullivan comes in.  Charlene Johnson takes medical leave, with her portfolio now handled by another acting minister, on a go forward basis.

5. A promotion for what, exactly? Intergovernmental affairs should be a senior portfolio, handled by an experienced minister.  The trend at both the federal and provincial levels lately has been to hand the job to second or third stringers.

In this case, it's Dave Denine whose time in municipal affairs was notorious for its embarrassing moments.

6.  Structured to underperform:  Tom Hedderson as new minister of fisheries likely ensures that Derek Butler and anyone else interested in fisheries renewal will be left SOL by the cabinet stir.

7.   Stay the course:  Ross Wiseman and Joan Burke keep their portfolios despite much speculation  - even within Provincial Conservative circles - that they would be given a rest from their burdens.

8.  Back to the sidelines:  Having come back into the limelight through the innovation and fisheries portfolios, Trevor Taylor - once a high flier  - heads off to look after snow removal. No one is going to intimidate Trevor about road work, but then again, political staff in the Premier's Office have that one under control anyway.

-srbp-

The Bunker Door is Welded Shut #nlpoli

Kathy Dunderdale cannot quit as leader of the provincial Conservative Party,  says Fairity O’Brien in an interview with NTV.

He stresses it over and over.  The caucus is solidly behind her.

He stresses it so much – right down to telling you that he wants to stress the message in this interview – that where you’d start to believe that what he is saying is the literal truth:  Kathy wants to go but the caucus won’t let her.

Rodent Intercourse #nlpoli

If you want to see a fine example of the political management of a potentially devastating scandal,  take a close look at how Justin Trudeau and the Liberals handled the accusations against two caucus members.

One news conference stripped the New Democrats of a political issue they could have – and likely would have  - used against Trudeau in the run-up to the next general election.  Trudeau positioned the Liberals as the champions of the fight against sexual misconduct in the workplace.  And to cap it all,  Trudeau’s statement effectively shifted the focus of the story from the salacious details onto the fact that the federal parliament has no means to deal with harassment.

That last one turned out to be highly advantageous.  Within two days of the Trudeau news conference,  a former New Democratic Party staffer launched a law suit against an NDP member of parliament over allegations of harassment.  The best that Thomas Mulcair could muster is the claim that, as reported by Canadian Press, that the MP “would not face a reprimand because a management-union committee had already reviewed the matter.”  The MP said “he took all the right steps, and believes the matter will be dismissed.”

The pack politics of ambition

Politics is a strange thing.

There's a lot of individualism and ego but at the same time there's some really obvious group behaviour within the party pack.

The ambitious ones are always hungry to move up in status. 

Nothing surprising in that.  That's what ambitious people do.

There's nothing wrong with ambition. That's what keeps the blood pumping in a party that otherwise might be mistaken for dead.

Joan Burke for example, is one of a couple of the current crowd who fancies herself and is fancied by some as an eventual alpha to replace the alpha currently running every pack around the province.

Jerome is another one.

These ambitious betas will not challenge the alpha outright. Rather, they actually copy the alpha in many respects, especially speech patterns and attitudes.

Most obviously, they become supremely loyal:  they will do and say anything the alpha demands, no matter what, since currying favour with the alpha raises their own status within the pack in the meantime. 

They'll even try to anticipate the alphas demands so they can be ready to satisfy him immediately and appear therefore all that much more loyal within the pack.

No surprise then that someone familiar with Joe Smallwood would consider Burke to be aping one of the biggest political alphas in the province's history.

"The way Burke is acting is as if the 1973 amendments never took place," says [retired Memorial University head librarian Richard] Ellis. "It's a little bit ironic for a Progressive Conservative to be harkening back to Smallwoodian legislation."

Ellis had responsibility at one time for the Smallwood archives, among other things, so when it comes to the recent past, Ellis would know a thing or two.

He's off by a few decades but the idea's the same.

Danny Williams is the one channeling Joey Smallwood, either deliberately or inadvertently.  And, by the transitive property, Burke is channeling Smallwood, but only doing it through Williams.

She's adds some ruffles and flourishes of her own to her public speaking - the completely flat affect in her voice, for one -  but the attitude behind the words is unmistakable:  this is the way things are because I said so.  Period.

We likely won't be seeing any ticking right shoulders on the education minister soon and neither will she likely develop less harsh speaking voices  - at least without professional coaching.  But that's really just packaging.

What you can expect are more of what we've seen over the past couple of weeks.  It's really the same Joan Burke we've seen in other cock-ups or controversies in her department already - like the Eastern School district alleged fraud case that cropped up while her current parliamentary assistant was running the school board -but for some reason it just stands out more in the current Memorial University crisis. 

Joan Burke, the alpha wannabe will stick even harder to her guns under pressure because that's what the alpha would do (or what he wants) and in order to be loyal and eventually replace him, the covetous beta must be more alpha than alpha.

And like all ambitious politicians, Burke like knows there a pattern to how the future alphas move around government and move up within cabinet.

If memory serves, she has done or is doing her stints in financial management on treasury board.  She's the government House leader which gives her more parliamentary experience - such as the House is these days - and more experience managing her colleagues in cabinet.

Running the big social departments would be crucial to her future.  Having run education for the past three years, Burke is likely angling to replace Ross Wiseman in the next shuffle, whenever it comes. 

And if she gets the promotion to health, as a number of future alphas and presumptive alphas did in previous administrations  [think Grimes and Aylward most recently] putting Burke in charge of health care would be a sign of her heightened status within the pack.

There's no guarantee health is a stepping stone to greatness.  Look at poor Tommy Osborne.  From minister of the largest department in government one day where all he had to do was follow orders and not shag up, to government backbencher the next via a castrated justice department in between.

The only way Osborne could have been handed a bigger slap in the goolies was if he'd been given permits and licenses instead of justice on the way out the door.

But in the current crisis in education, Joan Burke has really done anything to diminish her status as one of the betas most loyal to the alpha.

She's done all the things she needs to do to prove her status.  Burke will be rewarded, at least in the short term with an alpha who will back her to the hilt.  He will go to the ends of the Earth for those who follow his orders tirelessly.

When he emerges from escorting second place essay winners around, the Premier will likely lash out at everyone and everyone.  Everyone that is, except Burke, who will be commended for her hard work in the best interests of the province and the people.

Yada, yada, yada.

In the politics of the pack, loyalty counts above all else.

-srbp- 

Replay 2008 round-up

1.  To start, a recommendation: go check nottawa's latest jab at the whole ABC thing.  He's got a thought about a missing quote that's worth pondering.

2. Has anyone noticed the morphing messages from the ABC corner? First there was the shifting goal - no longer about the goose egg;  now just about "the principle", what with the polls showing that Danny Williams' ABC was producing such a devastating effect on polls not just in this province but across Canada. That just makes it easy to claim victory even when Fabian Manning heads back to Ottawa, even though the goal was always to deliver a goose egg to the Conservatives.

BTW, evidently someone forgot to tell Jerome Kennedy that the goal had changed in time for Kennedy's appearance on Night Line. He was in full flight on a local open line show when he blurted out the goose egg line.  yes, we know Jerome.  It's hard to stop on a dime and shift directions.

Now it's the My ABC.  In response to accusations from the federal Conservatives that Danny Williams and his team are twisting arms and threatening people, the Provincial Conservatives are deploying their troops - Jerome was a lead this week - to insist that Danny had nothing to do with anything, the whole campaign is their campaign.  Nice marketing touch but highly unconvincing given that the guy came up with the idea, has been pushing it relentlessly, sent e-mails to make sure everyone in his caucus was on side and has bitchslapped cabinet ministers who dared question the wisdom of ABC publicly.

Nope.  No.  Nosirreee Bob.  No intimidation there.

3.  Speaking of Shawn Skinner, word is the minister made to humiliate himself publicly for daring to go off the message track is knocking doors for Siobhan Coady in St. John's South-Mount Pearl. Don't worry Shawn; there's a cabinet shuffle soon.

4.  Decisions, decisions. The drums along the highway running through Avalon make it sound like some Liberals are hard pressed in their choices.  As much as they want to vote for Liberal Scott Andrews, they'd have more fun sending Fabe back to Ottawa just to rub Danny's nose in it. Recommendation:  Don't vote for anyone who calls the province "NewfoundlandLabrador".

5.  Meanwhile, in St. John's East, some voters are wondering if they couldn't score a double play on one vote:  elect Westcott.  That would likely make the Premier's head explode while at the same time setting everything up for Westcott to tackle Harper, as he inevitably would.

6.  At least one mayor is now sending out begging letters to Ottawa. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.  Well, maybe that or just another guy looking to horn in on somebody else's spotlight. 

7.  Takes one to know one.  Memorial University political science professor Michael Temelini on Craig Westcott's candidacy: ""Is the real Craig Westcott the one who was critical of Stephen Harper, or is it one who seems to be now abandoning all of his critical faculties and toadying up to the prime minister?" What happened to university professors who tried to be analytical in their comments instead of taking sides in a partisan fight?

 

-srbp-

The 'eart of Darkness #nlpoli

No one would be surprised if a cell phone video turned up in the next few days on youtube showing Dwight Ball before he broke his silence and talked to reporters on Wednesday.

The video would be Dwight himself, in his office in the middle of the night, hunched in the corner, staring off into the inky blackness, the only light a faint glimmer coming into a darkened Premier's Office through the large picture windows.

Out of the shadows of the grainy, found-footage clip would be nothing but his voice,  a raspy, dry-throated whisper  over and over :  " the 'orror.  The 'orror."