Self-massaging the message #nlpoli

The Telegram’s Pam Frampton has a neat column this weekend on Jerome Kennedy, Muskrat Falls, and the provincial government’s problems with explaining to people in simple terms why Muskrat falls is a good idea.

Frampton nails the biggest problem simply enough: 

The problem with the government’s Muskrat Falls message till now is that it has been a moving target. One week the project was all about clean energy, the next it was job creation, then it was all about being an affordable energy source, then it was a means of foiling Quebec, then it was a lure for mining companies.

Then she notes the critic’s arguments and the fact they they were,as Frampton, puts it often “shrilly spun” by government officials and others.

Kennedy tried to put a new face on government’s messaging during his appearance at the Telegram’s editorial board. as much as Kennedy seemed to change both his tone and his content, none of that stopped Kennedy from spinning  - to use Frampton’s word - either his own position or that of the critics. 

How surprising.

Recreational Lobster Fishery #nlpoli

Lots of people in Newfoundland and Labrador fought for and continue to bitch about the recreational cod fishery.

They bitch because they cannot fish anytime they like.  They bitch because other people in other parts of Canada don’t have the same restrictions on their recreational fishery.

Well, take a look at another place on the eastern seaboard where marine species are under heavy pressure both from commercial fishermen and, as it turns out, the recreational types as well.

How Darin Could Have Succeeded on the Debate #nlpoli

Darin King failed miserably in his first encounter with the opposition parties.

He didn’t have to.

We get the message just fine, Jerome #nlpoli

“No, I don’t think that we have done a great job of communicating this,” natural resources minister Jerome Kennedy told the Telegram editorial board last week.

“I can give you a couple of examples myself that I’ve done. One is, ‘No debate! No debate!’ Then a week later, ‘OK, let’s have a debate now.’ That’s not good communication.”

The Telegram editorial on Wednesday then mentioned the provincial government’s general message to critics of the Muskrat falls project.  The editorial paraphrased it as “You’re all idiots, you don’t know what you’re talking about and you’re all wrong.”

Okay.

A bit of an exaggeration, but not much of one.

With all due respect to the newer, calmer Jerome Kennedy, the provincial government doesn’t have a communications problem.

Muskrat Falls propaganda a no-brainer #nlpoli

From the latest issue of the Irish Loop Post, Craig Westcott’s editorial “You won’t strain your brain reading government’s last minute batch of Muskrat Falls propaganda.”

There is more to read in a Victoria’s Secret catalogue than Nalcor’s electricity demand forecast, according to Craig.

Numbers and stuff #nlpoli

Most of you are likely dissecting the American presidential election or hopped up to talk about the House of Assembly.  Well, there’s plenty of time for that.

Consider this post a minor diversion, more about the backstory than about the discussion of what just happened.  We’ll get back to some new and more involved subjects on Thursday.

Thy Redeemer Liveth #nlpoli

Tuckamore Capital made a single political donation during the 2011 general election.

The company gave $1500 to Keith Hutchings, who ran for the Conservatives in Ferryland.

Dean MacDonald is president and chief executive officer of Tuckamore Capital.

In 2011,  MacDonald was being courted behind the scenes to take over the leadership of the Liberal Party from an ailing Yvonne Jones. 

At the time, Jones denied it publicly, as reported by CBC.  The same CBC story quoted MacDonald as saying that “as a Liberal I will be helping Yvonne in any way I can in terms of candidates, fundraising and all the things that go on with an election.”

The Tuckamore donation occurred during the campaign. 

-srbp-

Cost Per Vote: General Election Years #nlpoli

Last winter we took a look at the idea of cost per vote.  Basically, you compare the amount of money a campaign spent with the number of votes it got.

It’s a way of measuring the efficiency of a political campaign.  The lower the number, the more efficient the campaign is.

Here’s a chart showing the cost per vote for the three major parties in Newfoundland and Labrador in the four general election years 1996, 1999, 2003, and 2007.  The calculations added the annual contributions for each party and the specific contributions for each general election during the year of the general election and divided the sum by the number of votes cast for each party.

The chart doesn’t include 2011 since Elections NL hasn’t released the annual contribution figures for that year yet.

The Mystical Lords of Mu’skr’at Fa’alls #nlpoli

The water management controversy flared briefly at the end of last week thanks to Geoff Meeker’s blog at the Telegram and a couple of interviews by the 2041 Group and Nalcor’s Gil Bennett.

This is one of those issues where a lot of people either tune out early on because it appears highly technical and complicated.  Actually it isn’t.  The topic only appears complicated.

It only appears complicated because of the very convoluted, long-winded, and very unhelpful way the cats at Nalcor talk about the water management agreement.  They go all techie.

Once you get a handle on the whole water management thing, it’s quite easy to understand and it’s quite easy to see where the possible problems are.

Kathy Dunderdale, give-aways, and the resource curse #nlpoli

Ontario has been interested in Gull Island since at least the 1990s.  We didn’t need Kathy Dunderdale to say that again as part of the advertising show she is mounting before finally admitting Muskrat Falls is a done deal.

As recently as 2005, Dunderdale and her friends turned up their noses at Ontario’s offer to help develop the Lower Churchill at no cost to local taxpayers.  The result: No development.

Instead of building the Lower Churchill for export  - profit for taxpayers -Dunderdale and her friends are forcing taxpayers to empty out their public bank accounts of billions in oil savings and then borrowing billions more in order to give cheap electricity to multi-billion dollar mining companies. Then those same taxpayers will pay themselves back through their electricity rates over the course of 50 years.

Whoever could imagine such a ridiculous idea?  Especially in a province where the overwhelming majority of the population pays very little, if any, tax.  

The Fifth of November returns once more #nlpoli

“I know why you did it.

I know you were afraid.

Who wouldn't be?

… There were a myriad of problems which conspired to corrupt your reason and rob you of your common sense. Fear got the best of you, … .

He promised you order, he promised you peace, and all he demanded in return was your silent, obedient consent.”

-srbp-

The Disney Empire Strikes Back #nlpoli

Lots of anguish and lots of humour attend the news that George Lucas has sold out to Disney.

A sample of the fun:

And another:

-srbp-

Water Management Controversy Hits Nova Scotia #nlpoli

Okay so the locals might call it Information Boring, but CBC’s morning Halifax radio show took a look at Muskrat Falls this week.

The interviewed Dennis Browne from Group 2041 on Wednesday.  The next day they came back with a discussion of the water management controversy.

Here are links to the audio files:

• Dennis Browne
• Bern Coffey and the Water Management Agreement

-srbp-

Windy #nlpoli

Anyone with half a clue knows that you cannot develop a reliable, efficient electricity system built on type of generation only.

You need a mix so that the advantages of one type offset the weaknesses of another.  All hydro is hard to do if you need steady supply because it tends to vary with the water flow.  Wind is even worse for that.  Oil and coal are good for steady supplies but they tend to be expensive, dirty or both.  Natural gas is very cool, especially these days, because not only is there lots of it but it is very inexpensive and can deliver electricity pretty much on demand. 

Only in Newfoundland and Labrador do we have access to trillions of cubic feet of natural gas already found, trillions more likely to be discovered, and a provincial government that doesn’t want to develop it because the natural gas is not expensive enough to use. 

Labrador Mines and Muskrat Falls #nlpoli

One of the things everyone is learning this week is that a consultant who accepts all the assumptions Nalcor used to arrive at its conclusion in the first place will -  inevitably -  reach the same conclusions.

Some people will think that the second report proves that the first conclusion was right.

Unfortunately, such is not the case.  It merely means that – inevitably –such an approach will repeat the same mistakes, errors, and flaws just as readily as it might get something right.

Think of it as a case of GIGO:  garbage in, garbage out.

Creature from the Black Lagoon and other stuff

Oh, man they have got a Creature from the Black Lagoon in development at Moebius.

It might not hit the shelves until January 2013, though.

-srbp-

C.H.U.R.N #nlpoli

The first day of a new month and Premier Kathy Dunderdale is continuing to set new records of turn-over in the senior ranks of the provincial public service.

It’s been a mere two weeks since the record-setting 40th change in a single year.  On Thursday, Dunderdale added five more:

• a new deputy minister in advanced skills and training, who previously was the DM in education,
• promotion for an assistant deputy minister in advanced skills to the post of associate deputy minister in the same department,
• an acting deputy minister in education,
• a new assistant secretary to cabinet for social policy, and,
• a new assistant deputy minister in child youth and family services.

Note that two of those will open up the chance for further changes.  The acting DM in education will need to be replaced or confirmed.   The ADM for social policy will vacate and ADM job in health and community services on November 7.

SRBP forecast that Dunderdale was on track for 49 changes at the senior executive level before the end of 2012.

-srbp-

Muskrat Potpourri #nlpoli

• The skinny on cost overruns – Des Sullivan
• Bringing energy efficiency to the equation – Winston Adams
• The need for power isn’t proven – Maurice Adams

-srbp-

King Kop. Kennedy Kop. #nlpoli

Expect to hear a lot more in the next couple of days about a comment Jerome Kennedy made on CBC Radio’s Crosstalk on Wednesday.

The reason is that back in the spring Kennedy said this to CBC about the opposition parties and debates:

"The problem right now is that I'm not sure these opposition parties are going to provide quality debate on anything," Kennedy said at the time.

Now his tune is different:

…And at that point, I was more critical of critics that I am today," said Kennedy.

"And I became very open to the debate as a result of the PUB's failure to make a decision."

Calculators #nlpoli

Nalcor’s new marketing website for Muskrat Falls includes a little feature that supposedly shows you what your electricity bill will be with and without Muskrat Falls.

Even though you will pay for Muskrat Falls until at least 2067, they only show the comparisons out to 2030 on the new calculator.

So try a monthly bill currently of $200.

According to Nalcor, your monthly electricity bill with the Marvellous Muskrat will be $268 in 2025.

In 2010, they gave an estimate out to 2040 using a bill that was $200 in 2017.  On that basis, your monthly bill in 2025 would be $208 in 2025.

That’s a huge difference.

But ya gotta wonder why they changed the way they presented the numbers.  It just makes an already confusing situation – for many people – all the more confusing.

Most people aren’t really worried about the costs that far out in the future. They are more concerned with more immediate costs, like say the impact on their taxes or money they’d rather spend on health care but will now have to devote to paying for an enormous dam up in Labrador.

All the same, looking at the comparison charts.  The monthly savings aren’t all that great.  Even in 2030,  you’d be saving less than $50 a month.  Nalcor’s total estimated savings over the 14 years between 2016 and 2030 is only $3811. 

That’s $272 a year, on average.  What’s everything else going to cost in 2025 or 2030 if oil is going to be at the sorts of prices Nalcor assumes?  Besides, on the front end of that period the costs are almost identical.  There’s no comparative advantage to switching until well into the future.

Maybe all that is a bit too esoteric for some people.

Just look at the numbers.  Some people are going to conclude  - likely incorrectly - that in a mere two years, the monthly cost for Muskrat Falls for the ordinary consumer appears to have jumped $60 a month.  Once someone gets that idea in their heads,  even if it is completely wrong those $50 a month in theoretical savings way off in the future are going to seem like what they are today:  nothing.

-srbp-