Since people are wondering if Muskrat Falls really is still the cheapest way to make electricity for local use, let’s take a look at it.
The tale is actually very simple.
Nalcor argued that Muskrat Falls was cheaper than one alternative: an island system dependent on thermal generation using some sort of petroleum fuel like the heavy stuff burned at Holyrood.
Now that wasn’t true even in December 2010, as this SRBP post noted at the time. Even if you accept the contrived studies used in 2012 to justify Muskrat Falls, the massive cost increases for the project have made the Falls more expensive than the alternatives.
The only advantage Muskrat had over thermal (oil) was fuel and those prices have gone in one direction: down. Since you can build a new thermal plant near to the demand source, you wouldn’t need the expensive connections to the mainland. That all works for oil-fired generation and against Muskrat Falls.
Oil prices have plummeted in recent months and are forecast to stay low, Muskrat Falls’ only advantage is definitely gone.