28 October 2009

The best by-election commentary

1.  There is nothing that trumps the analysis by a political veteran like nottawa.  The Temelinis, Dunns and Marlands of the world are so far removed from what actually goes on they really can’t offer anything beyond theory and abstraction masquerading as fact. 

To take it a step further, nottawa has really hit on the essence of the Danny message since Day One.  Back in 2001 and again in 2003, it was “Elect me and I will personally take away all your pain, bring you jobs and gobs of cash.”  In 2007 and since then, it was all about Hisself and how much Hisself had brought in fulfillment of the earlier promise.

2.   Right behind nottawa is Winston Smith.  His round-up includes a reference to Yvonne Jones pithy observation that:

"People want a voice, and there isn't a voice inside the Williams government," she said. "Most of the backbenchers are silent. Many of the cabinet ministers are allowing critical cuts to happen in their districts without ever speaking out against it."

Winston has a couple of other things in there including the complicity of the local media in supporting the cult of personality but that’s almost old hat.

3.  Undoubtedly there’ll be more but that should hold you for now.

-srbp-

13 comments:

Jason Hickman said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Jason Hickman said...

I thought my comment was too glib, even for me, so I scrapped it. I'll try to put up something better later.

Edward G. Hollett said...

Well it's up to you.

Frankly, though, as I am sure you will realise after you watch the head-shaker of a report by Cochrane on CBC, the circumstances have changed so radically all over that your comment just simply doesn't apply.

You weren't smug. You raised a possible outcome, except for all the changes since the point in time you chose. I won't make a direct reference to your comment, but let's just say that what may have applied at any point before 2007 ain't even close to covering what is going on now.

Today the blame was being placed on Trevor's shoulders by unnamed Tory insiders. On top of that the Premier's comments were astonishingly smug for a guy who put himself as the candidate and then lost out to a a rag tag band.

There are lots of ways of saying things diplomatically but frankly the stuff tonight was in the same line as the crap we saw during the by-election from Kevin O'Brien, Tom Hedderson or all the rest of the ministers who couldn't have been bothered to deal with the district at all ever.

And then some backroom genius blames it on Trevor for not returning phone calls and not being in the district often enough?

Holy crap.

Of course what I saw tonight refllects some of the stuff I have been picking up from my Tory friends with the unease and uncertainty over the two shocking departures.

Now their is a huge loss and people (likely the ones responsible for the disaster) groping for excuses. Their first choice is to shoot inward. That short of approach just opens up rifts within the party and increases the sense of unease.

The long-time party types will recognise the huge shag-iups of the past few weeks. They'll be looking for smarter performance, not the sort of pathetic nonsense Cochrane reported as coming from inside the party.

But hey, this is the same sort of infighting and dissention that crops up from time to time in political parties. It's just weird to see it in a party so short in power.

WJM said...

So... who's the next voluntary departure going to be?

Anonymous said...

"But hey, this is the same sort of infighting and dissention that crops up from time to time in political parties. It's just weird to see it in a party so short in power."

So says the biggest Liberal stooge in NL, based on what his Tory friends are telling him. Hah.

"The Temelinis, Dunns and Marlands of the world" yada, yada. What would these academics know compared to the collective wisdom of the Clyde Lied Tribe to whom you type gratitudious accolades. Hah,hah.

Please learn the proper use of there and their. That's at least twice this week that you have pulled a 'Whittle'.

T. Jameson

Craig Westcott said...

Ed:
I heard Cochrane's piece on the 5 p.m. news. Yes, blaming the dead guy. Funny, isn't it, that with Trevor gone the "background" message track being fed to Cochrane is that it was all Taylor's fault. And Taylor was so loyal to the Boss going out. But like many of us have observed before, with Danny loyalty only cuts one way.

The result on the Great Northern Peninsula means that for Danny Terra Nova absolutely has to stay in the fold. One loss can be dismissed as an abberation. But two losses! That would make a trend.
Craig Westcott

i am way smarter than marland said...

The Temelinis, Dunns and Marlands prove the value of a PHD.

Almost as much as a Rhodes Scholarship.

Anonymous said...

Yes, Liberal hackery is such a credible source of ANALysis, isn't it? You can almost hear the gravy-train salivating that must be going on in Ed's basement bunker. EA jobs all around for the byes.

Craig Westcott said...

I've interviewed Marland and have had dealings with most of the faculty at one time or another over the years. Marland is by far the brightest light the Political Science Department has had in some time. It's unfair to judge him by one 10 or 15 second clip in a television report. The actual interview was probably 10 or 15 minutes long and likely a lot more insightful than the clip listed for the TV piece might indicate. And besides, the clip in question, to the effect that Williams is really popular, is accurate.

Meanwhile, the full interview between Cochrane and Marland would be much more useful on Here & Now than "We have breaking news... a moose just took a slash on a lawn in Outer Cove."

That's my last comment for the night. Unless Peter provokes me again.
Craig Westcott.

Edward G. Hollett said...

Craig:

You can tell when I am hitting a sore spot (That is, that my comments are really close to the mark) by the uptick in comments from the likes of Anonymous and T Jameson. The Fan Club is obviously in a tizzy. A "Leave Danny Alone" video can't be far behind.

But anyway, let me just make it clear for the people who may miss this, Cochrane today offered a solid report on what his sources were telling him. They weren't his comments; they were the line coming from within the party and were in all likelihood blessed by the headshed to some extent or another.

DW is jammed on the TN by-election in that he can't call it without having the House in session unless the House doesn't sit.

It is a must win but even then it will likely take a while for the disquiet to settle down especially as people see that a supposedly happy parting became a vicious smear job once they lost. At least they beat the crap out of Tom Rideout last year at the start.

Anonymous said...

TN is not a must win. The Cons can still lose the election and their overall provincial popularity will still mean a substantial win in 2011. Did anyone expect Danny to maintain such a riddiculous lead in popular polls.

The errosion will continue but not enough for the Liberals to win the next general election. I actually welcome the shift so that we can get back to better opposition and democracy

Edward G. Hollett said...

Among other things, 1023 that assumes that CRA polls are accurate and that things can't and won't change.

Huge assumption.

We'll win the straits kinda assumption.

Anonymous said...

that assumes that CRA polls are accurate

Name a poll taken by any firm that doesn't show an overwhelming majority for Williams. Every poll, give or take a point here or there, substantaites this. Shitty, but true.

Also show me a poll that doesn't have Lorraine and Yvonne in the wilderness...there hasn't been one since the two became their respective Party leaders.

So yea....I believe the polls. The polls will drop and a shift in support will occur. Chances are that another byelection will be lost by the Tories and other resignations will occur. This doesn't mean squat when we prognosticate on who will govern the province from now or after 2011

The Tories will win the next election unless a credible and competent leader emerges in time for the next writ. My guess is that potential Lib candidates will stay in the weeds until Danny leaves.

On another note, the Party needs a Leader to raise the necessary funds to put forth a credible campaign to the Cons. Yvonne and the caucus wil not keep the self appointed Rain Men of the Party, very busy during the next couple of years. You need money to fight a campaign and by all indications the money will not be flowing anytime soon

Wm. Murphy