Conservatives across Newfoundland and Labrador seem to be in a bit of a tizzy. Danny Williams’ sudden departure has the caucus so spooked they are trying to engineer a backroom deal to avoid a leadership contest.
On some level you have to wonder why they might be so uptight. After all, to casual observers they would appear to be guaranteed an easy victory in October’s general election with or without the Old Man.
But then you see things like an online poll at The Western Star: “If you were a Danny Williams supporter, are you less likely to vote PC now?”
So far, 46% of respondents are saying yes, they are less likely to vote Tory. 15% say they are more likely to vote PC and the remainder - 39% – answered “no”.
Even in the government’s own polls, Danny always ran way ahead of the party. In the most recent government poll, though, support for the party dropped about 10 percentage points compared to a poll done three months earlier. That wasn’t good even when people thought Danny would still be around for the fall election.
Now that he’s gone, things will likely turn out very differently. People who barely won their seats at the peak of supposed Danny-mania in 2007 might not have such an easy time of it in 2011. They might need a boost, like say from a cabinet appointment, to try and counteract the loss of Danny Williams’ entire coat.
Stop and think about it for a second, though, and the long term trend of Danny running in front of his party’s support and the Western Star online poll are pointing in the same direction. It would make sense that people who had voted Conservative in the recent past would now be thinking about shifting their vote. They were Danny Tories, as it were, not committed Tories.
All that would lead explain why Conservatives in the province are a wee bit out of sorts these days.
And if the number of soft Tory votes is actually close to the 46% the Star found, then politics over the next eight or 10 months is going to be way more interesting than anyone suspects right now.
- srbp -
32 comments:
Eddie, the cycle might just be returning to the usually close to 50/50 balance between the Liberals and the Conservatives. But that is not all that important.
The important thing to remember is that he is gone. Finally. At last. Gone.
Everything else pales by comparison.
Isn't it great, the fact that he is gone?
And then suddenly a brand new blank profile identity shows up calling me "Eddie".
Wow.
How original.
It would make that people who had voted Conservative in the recent past would now be thinking about shifting their vote
That's an interesting comment Eddie (sorry Tom)seeing that you made this comment when discussing "governments own poll" on Dec 6th...."Neither the Liberals nor the New Democrats picked up the disaffected vote, apparently."
Where do you think the disaffected vote went? New flash, but there is only three Party's
This is also quite interesting seeing that you made the prediction that the Opposition will win all but 34 seats in October.
Seeing that you have the crystal ball shined up... how 'bout telling us where the Libs/NDP will win the remaining 14 seats in October?
Afterall, you have "identified" the number of Seats so you must be able to let us know what Districts will change.
People these days aren't really party people. What they look for is a government they feel they can trust first. Next they judge it on it's core values, and whether or not they reflect their own. Finallt they judge whether or not that government can execute it's duties properly. Danny met all three criteria personally with the people. The challenge is, and the reason people feel he can't be replaced, to find a leader that can fufill all three requirements. If they aren't met then people start to look elsewhere for leadership. I believe this process may be transpiring within the Province. Obviously, my hope is that relationship will be restored with the PC Party, and not another. Brad.
he may be gone from public view but that does not mean the legacy he left behind legislatively with regard to our energy is gone with him.
the trail is dotted with who knows how many backdoor deals and contracts. if we don't get to see the records of the fiscal fandangling nalcor went through for the past 7 years he'll never be completely gone, not sure i would want that as my legacy.
opening the books of nalcor to full legislative oversight before these public meetings take place would be a good start, then we can have a real discussion, you know, like in a democracy. otherwise, i hope this is gets real messy.
Brad Cabana , the content of your message is jaw dropping .
You are accrediting the folks of this province with one hell of a savvy sense of" political astuteness".
With all due respect , I think that you are missing the one fundamental that makes up the "psyche" , of a Newfoundlander and Labradorian .
My opinion is that most , not all ,have an underlying need to "relinquish their responsibilities .
Speaking of the Liberal Party....seing that Ed never mentions them.
I noticed a couple of intersting things today.
On the VOCM site the Liberal banner was spalttered across the screen announcing the consultations for the Official Opposition. Intersting seeing that these consultations are payed by the taxpayer and not the Liberal Party!
Also I noticed that on Jan 12, Ms. Jones was referenced as the Oppossition Leader and then on Jan 11 we had a release from the Acting Opposition Leader Kelvin Parsons.
Then there was a release on Jan 13 stating that Mr. Parsons was the Acting Opposition Leader.
Clear as mud as the Party starts the byelection process.
Maybe Simon would like to fill us in.
Ursula, I like to treat people with the same respect they treat me. I have been listening to them, and what I hear is stated above. It also makes perfect sense, and doesn't necessarily rule out what you said. Many people support my right to run, while not knowing enough about me personally - yet - based on their core values. Afterall, don't people generally @relinquish their responsibilities' once they've voted, with the hope that responsible government will result? That is my take, Brad
Brad , respect is uppermost with me . You are a fighter and I can appreciate that .
Your theory about voting in the hopes of getting a responsible government , doesn't bear out in the history of politics in this province .
Our people vote for "personality" , rather than "policy"
A for instance , Brad Wall, he has a rating of about 56% , high for a politician in this country .
Yet , here in this province , we had a premier with a rating in the polls of between 80 - 90% .It was all about the man , not responsible government .
In my humble opinion , this says more about our people , than it does about the man .
Ursula, this forum just isn't large enough to state the differences between Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland and Labrador. Let's just say I chose to return here to my family's roots. My faith in the people of this Province, and their sense of fairness is unshakeable. Living in the rural area, and being with them all the time, I appreciate the wonderful spirit that makes up the people of Newfoundland and Labrador. My biggest regret is that they have been let down badly through out their history, and my primary reason for running for this Office is to redress those wrongs. Brad.
"Let down badly through out their history?"
Do tell how, please
Ed, where to start? Well there is the gross mismanagement of the fishery. The shameless exploitation of the Upper Churchill. It boils my blood for instance when at Xmas I stood beside an elderly lady at the bank as she explained to me how her just received power bill took almost her whole pension cheque - God bless her she still managed to be upbeat. Then I thought of the $7 a day daycare in Quebec, and the massively subsidized residential power rates there. The moment was like a snap shot of everything that has been done wrong through out our history. Whether it be over fishing, under industrialization, imperial policies, or shameless power deals, the people who live here and call this place home have not been treated well. The most wonderful thing to me is that they still manage to be sincerely caring people who believe in the human spirit. I am at home with them. I believe in them. I want nothing more than to make sure they have the full benefit of their resources to use as they see fit.
Two things, Brad:
You are really speaking of very specific issues that involved very real details and real people. Unfortunately so much of it is down to sheer fantasy, like the tale of fisheries mismanagement that it becomes difficult to have a sensible discussion.
Now since you are refering to hydro, I'd be interested in your views on that same woman who will face, thanks to your friends, a doubling of her power rates guaranteed as a minimum by 2017, if they get their way.
Surely that stands as a stark contrast: on the one hand your concern for the inequity of the current situation and on the other a plan to very consciously and deliberately make that woman's plight even worse.
then there's the archaic education system which attempted to assimilate us, and the lack of support to diversify and strengthen the economies of our rural areas through mechanisms such as the soul destroying EI system brought down via the old merchant system (thanks to pickergill). the over-harvesting, down through the chain, of the forest resources for centuries (to the point now where they want to take vacuum cleaners out in the woods to create pellets to sell back to us), and the willing destruction of the inshore fishery by the government/industry system which evolved from the old monarchy/merchant system.
the soul and resources of our people were stripped, just as many other peoples lands and cultures have been around the world throughout history. it is the sad story of our 'civilization' brought full circle back on us.
i hope we can move on now with what little is left to make a truly beneficial system for the people of newfoundland.
i think the first step is ripping the doors of the courts open to expose the corporate government complex that has been running this place for far too long.
I'm not sure I understand the fantasy part of your comment. The exploitation of this Province's resources for the benfit of others, and to the detriment of those that call this home, is unfortunately all to real. I beleive Danny William's heart and soul was dedicated to redressing this - as is mine. We may have different styles of dealing with people, but we are both fighters, and as I see it we both want the same things for the people here. Of that I have no doubt.
If Quebec can subsidize it's entire Hydro operations off the value of the Upper Churchill, and subsidze it's residential power rates, why couldn't we? Even Quebec understands that the Upper Churchill must be renegotiated - and will be. They know it and we know it. The revenue that comes fromm that agreement will alter the way of life here to the benefit of the people. That is also a fact. The Lower Churchill should be viewed in a long term infrastructure light. Just like say a road. It has no obvious economic return, it costs money to build, and it adds to the debt and therefore taxes. However, it is a necessity for development, and in time will pay for itself through economic development.
Our resource wealth through oil, hydro, and the like will make that elderly lady's life alot more comfortable, and hopefully less stressful. The Progressive Conservative Party is a progressive organization by it's nature, and as such it is committed to the enhancement of people's lives - as much as any government can effect that goal.
there are two sets of rules in our courts (and it is stronger here than in other parts of canada), this is something which people need to become aware of.
there are many rulings which clearly state the issue brought forward to the court is 'political rather than legal' and therefore the court has no legal basis to judge it. this can only mean that there are two sets of rules, where only one is written down and that is wrong.
it is why our politics has become overrun by lawyers and businessmen. it is part of the reason why people do not vote. it is not democracy. it is something closer to a corptocracy, and that is not what i want for my children.
brad. danny williams did not spend any time worrying about anything other than nalcor, and getting that corporations dealings hidden as much as possible from us, the people who own it.
i've heard it was to the point in the building that people were almost afraid of the situation at times. nothing other than energy mattered, that's why nothing else got dealt with and dunderdale had those few little disputes to settle when she took over. take the mou in the fishery for example, why do you think they didn't settle that?
there is so much more to nl than oil, gas, and hydro. those things will last only to long. the heart of this place is the people, the land, and the sea.
those who work at the UN, in universities and NGO's around the world know all too well how the corporate world has been a part of destroying the planet and how NL fits into that picture. many people in our society also are aware of the issue but have been sitting on the fence and waiting to see what happens, these people have probably been the ones who have dropped out of the voting system.
you may or may not be aware of the hornets nest you are stirring, we are a wise and old group of people. just trying to give you a heads up. careful what you wish for...you may help bring down the system you seem to respect so much.
@Lonenewfwolf, Danny Williams took over a Province spiraling to the bottom with debt. His preoccupation, as I see it, was to reverse the situation. He saw Energy resources as the only real way to bring in revenues critical to reversing the situation. My intention is to take that strategic vision to the next level solely for the benefit of the people of the Province. Quebec understands that the old 'business as usual' is no longer acceptable and therefore realize that a respectful accomodation of this Province's interests is necessary. Once that is achieved the subsequent revenues can be invested in our Fisheries, Social programs and generally to the benefit of our people. As for hornets nests refer to Winston Churchill's comment on Democracy:
'Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.'
I repeat , The irony in all of this is that Brad Cabana , may very well come to be known as the man who changed the face of politics in Newfoundland and Labrador ....
The process will be a difficult one , change is never easy .
Brad , you will be fighting the " apathy" , that has been ingrained in our people for hundreds of years .
There is the old saying that " Nothing is as powerful ,as a good idea whose time has come".
@Ursula I noted your comment the first time. My understanding is a powerful idea is stronger than any army. BTW- I never saw it as an Irony but rather a Duty.
you call this democracy? closed courts and closed legislatures are known as fascism, and some would say we are at that point now.
'respectful accommodation'? yeah right. of who's interests? a shift in where the money goes is all that's happening, simple. from montreal to toronto.
no one other than danny williams and gerry shorthall can see what nalcor actually is, or what its financial dealings are. they are dealing with the resources of our people and selling them for who knows what reasons. they could bankrupt and privatise that corporation without anybody knowing how or why it happened if things stay as they are. this is a very dangerous situation for the future of democracy.
ed has done an excellent job of documenting the facts, but he can only take it so far as the implications could lead to others such as clyde wells (old boy liberal, ex-premier and now also ex-supreme court of nl judge) becoming part of the picture he has helped paint. what part did that court play over the past seven years i wonder in the paving of the way 'forward' for nalcor? those would be some interesting court ruling and documents to publish.
do you think the freedom of information rules would allow the release of such documentation? should they be released? back to you ed.
Brad , a heads up so to speak , you are not Williams , please stop using him as a example , that is old hat .
Hero worship won't cut it this time , we already have a cabinet overrun with that tripe .
If you are serious , and I don't doubt that you are , and you have some new and radical ideas then , stand on your own volition , not as a ghost of Williams .
I want to see the real Brad Cabana , not a mouthpiece.
Ursula, I am definately not Danny Williams, and I don't worship any person - other than perhaps my wife and kids. The point is the strategic vision. That is the only point. Danny was so busy trying to stop the spiral that he didn't get much of a chance to build on our energy successes. Again, as I see it. I am not interested in emulating his style, nor am I seeking to ride his coat tails at all. In fact, my SOUL reason for getting involved is for the PEOPLE not anyone's private agenda. It doesn't matter who was involved previously other than understanding which part of the House they built, and which one I want to. My style is to be wise enough to avoid the fight, but if necessary, as you can see, I can fight with anybody for the right reason. One has to pick and choose your fights. To constantly fight is to lose your purpose, and therefore it's influence.
brad. without more definition you are starting to sound like the previous crosbie's tobin's well's and william's talking heads.
what is it exactly you have to say? aside from your obvious interest in our energy resources and winston churchill quotes...
@Brad :Confucius say :
"What the superior man seeks is in himself; what the small man seeks is in others".
Ursula, I could not agree more.
and ed...
i would equate what you refer to as 'tory' angst as the 'military-industrial complex' angst.
there are things happening outside of here, in canada and throughout the world that affect this place.
we do not live in a bubble.
@Lone:
"there are things happening outside of here, in canada and throughout the world that affect this place".
A very astute observation .
NL is a resource rich province without the capacity ,capability or inclination to control or harness our abundant material bounty .
Others are more than willing to help themselves , almost always to our detriment .
The most challenging hurdle we face as a people ,has always been and remains to this day , are administrations with short term goals and self-serving aspirations .
lets take those energy and trade corridors that are being rammed through right now...
imho the establishment of those layers of infrastructure were the issue b/w williams and harper to begin with, the other stuff was just fluff for the media. the big money is in freshwater, the long-term energy contracts and infrastructure maintenance. the security measures that the us is willing to take around those items are unacceptable for the continuation of our democratic sovereignty.
nafta has 1000 year clauses in it, just like red indian lake did incidentally. what happens when our resources get hooked into that system? can we pay what the people and government of the us will be be willing to pay for freshwater and energy security once their empire pulls up the drawbridge?
what implications did harpers 'bailout' of the williams decision to expropriate ABH's assets have on these goings on? did harper give private water rights to a corporation in that fandangle? how might star lake be a part of that? that's what maude barlow suspected, and she's no dummy.
as a people we need to begin to act as shareholders rather than hangers on, and step back before the talking heads in suits do it to us again...
@Lone:
The cut and thrust of your debate , signals a very keen perception .
I have followed Maude Barlow for many years now .
Brad:
1. Again, I am not sure what you mean when you refer to exploitation for the benefit of others. Are you making a remark about capitalist exploitation or something else?
2. On the hydro side, perhaps you can explain more clearly how you can consider doubling electricity rates to people like the elderly lady you mentioned to be a subsidy of anything. The current Conservative plan seems to be having the locals subsidise power for people outside the province. That is, after all exactly what you claim is happening under the 1969 contract.
How do you argue that the elderly woman will be getting a break on anything under this Muskrat Falls deal?
Post a Comment