Here’s a map showing the possible seat results for an election where the Tories wind up with 41% of the vote, the NDP get 38% and the Liberals get 20%. That’s basically the next public opinion poll from CRA if the current trending continues.
The northeast Avalon goes pretty well all orange in that scenario. The two hold-out seats are Topsail and Mount Pearl North. The grey seat is the toss-up, which, curiously enough, turns out to be Virginia Waters.
Labrador goes half Liberal and half New Democrat. Felix Collins’ seat would go to the NDP.
It doesn’t take much to start shifting around seats.
All you have to do is piss people off. As it seems from recent events, Kathy Dunderdale and her Tories are doing a fine job of it.