11 June 2012

Seat Counts and seats count #nlpoli

Last Friday, your humble e-scribbler gazed into the old crystal ball and produced a possible poll result if the recent trends continued.

If you reported them the way Corporate Research Associates does, you’d get the Tories at 42%, NDP at 38% and Liberals at 20%.

Wonder what that might mean to seat counts if you had that as an election result?

Well, this would curl the hair on your average bald-headed Tory backroomer:

  • PC     23
  • NDP  16
  • Lib     08

One seat would be too close to call.

Lots of Tories have been putting a very brave face on the latest poll results.  They may not have to go to the electoral polls for a while yet but the downward trend of Tory support in the past six months is something they should be worried about. 

Well, maybe not they so much as she.  Kathy Dunderdale.  If the downward trend continues, Dunderdale will find it harder and harder to get things done.  She will face more and more complaining, more challenges, more pushback. If she has to do something about the financial mismanagement she and her colleagues have already admitted to  - as opposed to just talk about it – Dunderdale will find it even harder than it was this year. 

Remember: she threatened cuts of three percent and only delivered a 1.7% increase instead and that was with only one bad poll.  Toss in a few by-election losses and see how easy it gets to govern then.