08 June 2012

So drop the writ, Nan #nlpoli

"I would go to an election tomorrow on these numbers," Premier Kathy Dunderdale told reporters on Thursday. "You know, these aren't bad numbers. Look where my opposition is."

Fair enough. They are pretty good.  It’s the trending that sucks.

But if Kathy Dunderdale is so confident in her strong public support and in the rightness of her Muskrat Falls cause, maybe she’d drop the writ and let the public settle the issue.

One of the reasons Kath is all talk but no action is that the latest numbers from Corporate Research Associates would produce a much worse situation for the Tories than the one they have now.

Courtesy of labradore is a colour-coded map of what those CRA numbers would theoretically produce in a general election.

Not pretty for the Tories.

The New Democrats the Tories hate would pick up four more seats in the St. John’s area, one on the Burin Peninsula and another in Labrador. That would make them the official opposition with 11 seats.  The Liberals would gain one seat. 

The Tories would have 30 seats. Light blue seats  - six of ‘em - are ones where the Tories hang on by less than 10% of the vote. On the Avalon, the light blue seats would be potential losses to the New Democrats if things deteriorated even more for the Tories.

You can imagine what would happen if you gave the Tories 42%, the NDP 38%, and the Liberals 20%.