Rocket Man - The Movie and other loose ends

Ironic given the recent flap, Newfoundland and Labrador has played a key role in Titan missile launches from Florida through a communications relay point in Argentia. The site was built in 1993 and continues operation as part of the Florida missile launch complex's range instrumentation system.

That system allows continuous communications with the launch vehicle. In the event of any problems with the launch, data from Argentia would allow the launch controllers to make a decision about destroying the rocket and payload.

and now for the trivia...

Ok, so maybe some of you are growing tired of the whole Titan 4B launch story, but as a guy who grew up when men on rockets were going to the moon, there is something about the whole thing that still captures my imagination.

The movie: Here is a link to NASA and some footage (no audio) in mpg format from the night launch of the Cassini probe. This launch used a Titan 4B and it is damned impressive. For those who may have missed it, the B-30 mission that caused such a fuss here this past week will be a night launch.

Note especially that towards the end of this clip, there is a bit of a flash. That is the solid fuel boosters separating a mere two minutes into the flight, on schedule. They drop back to the ocean. The payload is then taken to orbit by the sustainer, a liquid fueled vehicle based on the old Titan intercontinental ballistic missile.

The impact: I still haven't been able to confirm whether or not that sustainer breaks up on re-entry or lands intact. One source I'd trust has it that the thing comes down in one piece. That's actually better than bits and pieces, since there is an even higher level of confidence in where one big piece will go, as opposed to a bunch of little ones.

Personally, in that scenario, I'd still think there is almost no chance of any kind of explosion form whatever fuel remains on board, if any.

Tracking ships and launch monitoring: Having invested a lot of money into the rockets and the payloads, and as part of an overall monitoring system, the United States operates a number of missile tracking ships in the Atlantic and Pacific that spend their time down range during a launch gathering data. They feed back to the launch control centre so that there is never a time when the launch authorities don't know what is going on. It's part of the overall safety program to ensure launches are safe and that in the event of a problem, accurate information is flowing back to Florida in case the rocket must be destroyed in flight.

Here's one link. Scroll down to see all the vessel types. If memory serves, Observation Island was one of the ships I visited in the early 80s when it and another vessel, the Range Sentinel, were open to public tours during a port call.

Here's a link that discusses revitalization of launch facilities in Florida. "The USNS Redstone was deactivated on 6 August 1993, but a new range site was completed in Argentia, Newfoundland in June 1993 to support northbound flights of the TITAN IV from Cape Canaveral." [Emphasis added]

I'll have to check to see if this site is still active. Have a read through this history though; it gives tons of useful information on operations at Canaveral including range monitoring.

I also found a Powerpoint presentation from the late 1990s on command and control issues related to re-invigoration of the Canaveral launch complexes. It includes a prominent mention of Argentia and the so-called high-inclination launches. US NAVFAC Argentia closed in the early 1990s so odds are high as I write this that the Titan related site remained active for some time afterward and may still be there working busily away.

Update:

Further searching turned up the name of a company that provides communications support to Canaveral under contract. It's current corporate information package includes work at a site in Argentina, Newfoundland.

Just for the heck of it, here's a link to photos of the Island and a tiny bit of Labrador taken from STS-96. Kinda hard not to get a little awestruck at the beauty of the Earth from space. I feel a Tom Hanks moment coming on our voyage from the Earth to the moon.

If anyone out there is old enough to remember, there used to be a tracking and communications station at Shoe Cove used for the Apollo and Apollo-Soyuz programs in the 1970s. There's not much left but here is a link to some pictures of the Shoe Cove site as it stood recently.

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Revsied from 22:00 hrs, 14 Apr 05 with new lede and additional information.

The Missileer

If you haven't heard enough about rockets, then I am here to feed your curiosity and hopefully, allay some of the anxiety that has seized our beloved Premier.

Here are some basic points that I suspected but which are now confirmed as well as some links to yet more background information.

See, Premier Williams, there is no reason for you to be confused if your staff used the internet.

Or called me in. After all, I have spent about half my life on defence issues and I currently work as a defence policy consultant.

1. USAF Space Command knew the Hibernia and Terra Nova platforms were there all along. As their public affairs spokesman said, the odds of a missile hitting a tiny oil rig in the middle of the vast ocean are small, maybe one in a trillion, especially when the platforms are outside the debris zone.

2. The Titan is a combined solid and liquid fueled missile. The side boosters are solid fueled and burn out shortly after launch. The main propulsion unit is the liquid-fueled Titan which has been in USAF service since the 1950s.

3. They have way too much experience with operating this system to make dumb mistakes about debris zones and impact areas for debris. Lquid fueled systems are great because you can predict where they will land with much greater accuracy than solid fueled systems. You can also cut off their power when you want to and do all sorts of other things with them you can't do with their solid fueled cousins.

4. A similar Titan rocket was fired on a similar trajectory in 1994 without incident.

5. The more recent loss of a Titan 4A from Canaveral is worth paying attention to because:

a. the Premier used it to bolster his hysteria at a scrum today; and,
b. he is WRONG.

The incident occured in 1998 and involved an older version of this particular booster. That missile was destroyed by the on-board self-destruct mechanism shortly after launch when problems occured. These were later attributed to wiring problems. It never got close to Canadian waters - in fact it traveled exactly 4, 422 feet from the launchpad. Here's a link to the full report.

A subsequent launch of the 4B version went off flawlessly, as reported at this link.

For a description of a two-stage Titan launch try this link from 2003. The version here had an extra boost vehicle designed to manoeuvre the payload into orbit. I erroneously described this as a second stage earlier; that doesn't change my assessment that there is a near zero chance (one in a trillion) of any debris from the B-30 launch landing within sight of Hibernia and Terra Nova.

6. Here's a link to a story on the delay of the current mission, dated 07 April 2005.

7. Here's a link on the payload likely being carried. It describes radar imaging in layman's terms. Read this and you will understand, Premier, why this launch will not be scrubbed and why there is virtually a zero chance of it being fired off on a trajectory designed solely to calm your nerves.

At least this little episode has caused me to find a raft of new sources on the web for tracking space-related issues.

Titan NewsFlash - SAGE Puts to Sea /Launch time confirmed

An E-mail received late last night from Tom Bell of the Portland Press Herald confirms that the Sage put to sea last night apparently headed for a position in order to monitor the launch of Titan Mission B-30 later this evening.

Bell also quotes US Air Force officials as saying the Titan is expected to lift off at approximately 2050 hrs EDT/ 2220 hrs NDT, the most precise launch information ever released publicly.

The launch is expected to occur between 2000 hr and 2230 hrs Eastern Daylight Savings time this evening. That's 2130 hr on 29 Apr and 0000 30 Apr 05 Newfoundland Daylight Savings Time.

This would confirm that the Sage's mission is to collect and transmit information on the Titan mission for the US Air Force. Bells' story, appearing in today's Press Herald, attributes the extra telemetry to an American desire to show Canada it is taking extra safety precautions. That opinion comes from Peter Brown, senior multimedia editor for VIA Satellite magazine.

Maybe, Peter. Personally I'd put greater weight on the idea that the Sage is merely filling in for one of the existing range instrumentation vessels. The time scales just don't fit; Sage was apparently already offshore Maine for the original launch before Canadian objections. It would have taken a lot longer to get the Sage fitted out and sailing north than the timescale allows, unless the Sage was already equipped. It looks to me like the ship merely docked in Portland waiting for the launch.

An extra telemetry vessel doesn't really send a message to the Canadian government especially since the whole thing is being handled in great secrecy. If you want to send a message to a friendly government, you pick up the phone.

There's no point in being cryptic.

Next thing you'll tell me there was ever a chance of the rocket ever coming in sight of the offshore oil fields let alone hit anything.

Re-entry debris footprints

It seems that a number of government officials are holding to their concern about the prospect that the Titan 4B booster scheduled to carry a classified US NRO payload into orbit from Florida will hit the "massive" Hibernia platform.

To see if we can help allay their almost phallicly-based concerns, here's some added information on the footprint left by falling space debris.

The Titan 4B is a two stage system. That means the payload is placed in orbit after it separates from a second stage that has carried it into space. The first stage and side-mounted boosters will have burned out and fallen back to Earth shortly after the launch.

While the Titan 4B may be a 10, 000 pound system fully loaded, the second stage will be returning to Earth the farthest of all debris from the launch point, will have broken up on reentry to Earth's atmosphere and will therefore consist of smaller bits and pieces than when it was fully assembled.

In the case of the system on the pad at Canaveral for the B-30 launch, there is no second stage. It's a 403B version. Therefore, the bulk of the debris will be even closer to the launch point in Florida.

That said, I draw attention to a description of a "debris footprint" from the FAQ at this site, kept up by the Center for Orbital and Reentry Debris Studies.

In particular pay attention to this paragraph:

"The footprint width is generally determined by the effects of wind on the falling debris objects, with heavy objects affected less, and lightest the most. The width of the footprint may also be affected by the breakup process itself. For example, if the object should explode during reentry, fragments will be spread out across the footprint. A footprint width of perhaps 20-40 km is typical, with the most pronounced effects near the heel of the footprint."

If you look at the nice little graphic on that site you will see a big red area on the map representing the surface area where debris may fall.

Until someone shows me the debris footprint for this particular launch, I am going to go out on a limb and say that the Hibernia and Terra Nova rigs were 15 miles outside the red zone representing the most like region of impact for all the bits and pieces of this Titan 4(03)B.

The odds of any bits striking these platforms was small.

And for the record, I give the Premier some slack when he said something about Americans being concerned about seals but not about missiles dropping on peoples' heads. He was a bit concerned, likely based on a poor briefing. Since he loves drama and hyperbole in equal measures, he could come up with a statement that is as accurate as the one uttered by a future Premier when he talked of turbot hanging on by their fingernails.

Fish don't have fingers.

Risk management

"The [oil] industry is risk averse," [Premier Danny] Williams said.

That's from a scrum the Premier gave on Sunday about the oil companies and the pending launch of an American satellite launch that will see debris from the rocket used landing  - at the closest -  25 kilometres away from the Hibernia and Terra Nova oil production platforms. He's been quoted in a number of news stories saying exactly those words.

Oil companies aren'’t actually risk averse. They are risk managers. Oil companies follow a “"discipline for living with the possibility that future events may cause adverse effects."”

Oil rig security gains national attention

Possible national security threats to offshore oil installations is prompting the federal natural resources department to legislation governing the offshore, according to the Ottawa Citizen. The changes would give greater say in offshore physical security to the two joint federal-provincial regulatory boards.

Bond Papers reported in April 2006 on the offshore security issue. At the time, the commander of Canadian Forces in the Atlantic region said DND was making the security issue a top priority. A former chief of strategic planning for the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) also described the offshore rigs as a potentially "high value target" for terrorists. Attacking the rigs could cause severe environmental harm and disrupt local economies.

While the military has already conducted several exercises related to offshore oil rigs and possible attack scenarios (See April's Bond Papers), the threat to the rigs is considered low according to the Ottawa Citizen.

The Titan missile scare in 2005 highlighted chronic, serious shortcomings in the provincial government's ability to deal with national security issues generally. Premier Danny Williams public comments on the matter made it plain that provincial officials could not make even the most rudimentary assessments of security threats and it became apparent that relations between the federal and provincial governments at the highest level did not routinely address security issues.

Even today, no provincial government officials in Newfoundland and Labrador hold federal security clearances. A provincial government team sent to Dartmouth for meetings with Government Canada and American officials was excluded from a briefing on the Titan launch because they did not hold recognized security clearances.

It appears that few if any of the officials and board members at the offshore regulatory authorities in Atlantic Canada have experience dealing with defence-related issues. Newly appointed CNLOPB chairman and chief executive officer Max Ruelokke is a former army reserve engineer officer. Ruelokke's experience would give him contacts within National Defence and a familiarity with DND and its overall operations that would prove important in an actual emergency.

However, the changes described by the Citizen would not give the offshore boards any responsibility for directing security operations. The story says:

[t]he amendments being considered would allow the agencies to issue security-related orders to rig operators and conduct security audits, said Felix Kwamena, director of Natural Resources Canada's critical energy-infrastructure protection division.

For its part, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers is emphasizing a single point of contact on physical security matters. This would a sensible approach since too many layers of authority can hamper effective response in emergencies. One of the issues that emerged from the Titan missile fiasco was a question about jurisdiction.

_____________________________________

Disclosure: The author is a former army reserve public affairs officer, with an academic and work background in defence, security and intelligence.

To infinity and beyond!

Space Transportation System mission 114 (STS-114) will launch from pad 39B at Canaveral space centre 13 July 2005 at approximately 1531 hrs Eastern Daylight Savings Time using an inclination of 51.6%.

That means the space shuttle will transit across the Grand Banks, not too far off the track used by the NROL-16, the last Titan 4B mission in May that caused a near panic in the oil patch offshore Newfoundland and in the provincial government. Maybe google-searching is a government wide deficiency.

So how come people aren't losing their minds about an even bigger hunk of metal that has a track record of blowing up rather spectacularly?

Incidentally, as I noted earlier this year, the shuttle has flown over the Grand Banks on more than half its launches since 1981. Yet no one in the oil patch noticed.

The last shuttle mission had problems on launch such that the American space administration team might have aborted before that giant liquid tank made it to orbit; that is, had they known that on recovery the thing was going to scatter bits and pieces of people and machine from California to Mississippi.

So come this afternoon, I'll be sipping my coffee, watching CNN and enjoying the show, minus the local melodrama.

Incidentally, has anyone finished the internal review on the Hill to find out why the provincial government's emergency management system blew to bits when it first heard of the Titan missile?

Might be a good subject for an access to information request.

Incidentally, incidentally, how many provincial government employees hold valid security clearances as a result of their provincial jobs such that they could receive classified national briefings on things like, say, intelligence reports or other matters of national security? The answer explains a lot of what happened during the Titan thing.

Yet another good access to info request.

Canada doesn't own the ocean - Updated

VOCM is reporting this morning that environmental group the Sierra Club has proposed salvaging the Titan booster left over from the Big Launch and sending the American government the bill for the clean up.

All this comes because of a report that the booster carried a variety of toxic chemicals when it splashed down.

There is no news release on the Sierra Club site backing this story.

Let's take it at face value.

1. The salvage operation may well release the toxic chemicals everyone is worried about. Is that worth the risk for what amounts to a publicity stunt?

2. Does anyone know where this thing is exactly? It took more than a decade of very expensive searching to find the Titanic which, in case you missed it, was a lot bigger than the Titan booster.

3. If the thing is NOT inside Canada's 200 miles exclusive economic zone, then who is going to salvage the bloody thing? After all, contrary to what some people want us to believe, Canada does not own the ocean.

4. Where was the Sierra Club when some yahoo anti-sealer was advocating shooting people in order to save a species that isn't even close to being in any sort of danger? All things considered, I can think of a dozen environmental issues that would get my attention long before I'd bitch about the LAST Titan missile launch in the Atlantic. AND if I did, I'd come up with a better story than spending tens of millions to stage some sort of bull**** publicity stunt. Something concrete would be much better.

Update:

This story apparently originated with an Access to Information request by Canadian Press bureau in Halifax. Here's a link to local CBC coverage, including a link to an audio interview with Deane Beeby of CP's Halifax office.

- The impact zone was reportedly within Canada's 200 mile exclusive economic zone.

- There was some residual fuel in the rocket. How much is unknown.

- One of several issues to be addressed here would be the impact of any salvage and disposal operation. There are some obvious hazards associated with deep sea salvage and any action that took place would have to weigh the risk of causing a leak of fuel through recovery operations versus leaving the thing on the seabed.

- Here's an Environmental Protection Agency information page on one of the chemicals involved, dimethylhydrazine. Notice that there are acute effects and chronic effects. Some of the affects noted in the Canadian Press refer to acute exposure - something that isn't likely to occur now that the rocket section is settled on the bottom of the ocean.

- As for nitrogen dioxide, here is some factual information on that one. While some reports have noted that it can produce nitric acid in certain circumstances, read this link before jumping to any conclusions.

As with most things, let's get a bit more factual information before anyone jumps to a conclusion.

Advance copy - SAGE info from Portland Press Herald, Maine

Courtesy of Portland Press Herald correspondent Tom Bell is a story due to run tomorrow in the Press Herald. Scroll down a bit to find the beginning.

Many thanks to Tom and his editors for permission to run it here this evening.

Before getting to the advance copy, I just want to chime in with the results of some amateur intel photo interpretation. The Telly today carried an Associated Press photo of the Sage. By measuring the length of the ship in the photo, knowing the length of the vessel and then measuring various bits, it is easy to conclude that the Sage likely carries the same types of radar found on the United States Naval Ship Invincible (T-AGM 24) .

Invincible is used to provide telemetry to launch control stations in Florida and Texas for both manned and unmanned missions from Canaveral. However, Invincible and another range instrumentation ship, USNS Observation Island (T-AGM 23) frequently are deployed to observe foreign missile launches as part of arms control treaty verification. They also are used to collect signals intelligence from missile launches by hostile or potentially hostile countries.

If Invincible is otherwise occupied, it makes sense that Lockheed Martin might be contracted to provide telemetry support to mission B-30/payload NROL-16.

Other than that it might also be involved some other missile launches from test ranges in the southern United States.

Given the timing of the arrival in Portland and the berthing for the past three weeks, odds are good that Sage is going to put to sea tomorrow in support of the B-30 launch (NROL-16)

Of course, Argentia, Newfoundland will also be humming with automated activity too at the old "T" building. It's the one site the Americans kept at the former United States Naval Facility at Argentia. An installation built in the mid-1990s provides telemetry in support of launches from Canaveral just like the one coming up on 29 April 2005.

Without further ado, here's the story coming up tomorrow in Portland:

Copy begins***

A vessel in Portland harbor is equipped with an antenna used to monitor rocket boosters during launches, according to Lockheed Martin, the defense contractor that is leasing the vessel.

But company spokesman Doug Sayers said he didn't know whether the vessel, an offshore supply ship called the Sage, will monitor the space shuttle Discovery, due to be launched next month, or an Air Force Titan rocket, which may be launched from Cape Canaveral, Fla. today.

The Titan is carrying a military satellite into orbit. Its flight path would take it over the ocean on a trajectory parallel to the East Coast.

The exact time is classified. But liftoff will happen sometime between 8 and 10:30 p.m., according to Space Flight Now, a Web site that monitors space activity.

Earlier this month, the Air Force postponed the launch after the Canadian government expressed concern that its 11-ton booster engines jettisoned from the main rocket could crash into the ocean near Newfoundland's offshore oil platforms, 196 miles off St. John's, Newfoundland.

Lockheed Martin manufactured the Discovery boosters at its plant in Michoud, LA and the Titan boosters at its plant in Denver, CO.

The Sage, about 180 feet long, carries two large domes on its aft deck. Many people on the waterfront have been wondering about the vessel's mission. The ship's captain has refused to talk or let anyone near the ship, which for more than three weeks has been tied up in a secure area at the end of Pier 1 at the Portland Ocean Terminal.

The vessel's port of registration is New Orleans, La. The Sage is one of 530 vessels owned by Tidewater, the world's largest offshore marine-services provider.

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It only took a week - time for a public security advisor on the Hill

News this morning that the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, the offshore regulatory board and the oil companies have finally gathered enough information to go back to their regular jobs and stop panicking over the launch of an American rocket from Cape Canaveral.

Having spent now a total of 25 years dealing with defence and security issues both as part of my undergraduate and graduate studies and my work life, I'd draw everyone away from the cheap and easy conclusions here.

The simple fact remains that defence- and security- issues are on the provincial government's agenda on a daily basis. Historically, the provincial government has difficulty making accurate assessments of defence and security matters on its own - even though they can collect accurate information from a variety of sources. Instead, the government relies almost exclusively on getting things from Ottawa. That was one of the big problems in this instance.

In this instance, no threats were averted. There was no threat. It was a totally artificial crisis. But it does point to a fundamental problem in the province's ability to identify a crisis accurately, deploy resources and then address a crisis. This has nothing to do with this premier and this government: it is a chronic problem going back 25 years and more. I saw it during my time in the Tower.

For a case after my time, does anyone remember 9/11? While people have been busily patting themselves on the back, it was largely characterized by fumbles and some monumental gaffes. Some were minor; some, like actual physical security of the airport were serious. Some, like the silly spat with Ottawa over cots were based on exactly the sort of misinformation that led the Premier to go public in this instance, with predictable and avoidable responses.

Personally, I think it is time for government to undertake a public security review. There are at least three senior retired army generals from this province I can think of who would be available to take on the task. Other provinces did that sort of thing after 9/11.

Aside from anything they'd recommend, government needs to appoint a senior official as a direct advisor to the Premier on public safety and security, much like the new national security advisor to the Prime Minister. It's a specialist area; let's find someone who knows what they are talking about.

When there is another Titan booster scare, the security advisor can calm frayed nerves. By the same token, when something real happens, cabinet can be assured that they will be getting the most reliable information from the best sources, including their own. They can act with confidence in their information.

And it won't take a week to figure out something this simple. At the risk of prompting yet another couple of e-mails poking me, I will remind you that most of the basic questions the Premier asked were answered here either when he asked them or beforehand. When it came down to the self-destruct mechanism question yesterday, I actually threw up my hands in astonishment.

But hey. The fact is that readers of this blog had reliable, factual information on this booster from the get-go. Had I heard this story on Wednesday night - like government did - you would have rolled out of bed Thursday morning to a full briefing with your coffee. And you would have gone about your regular work-week unaffected by fear of things falling from the sky.

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Note: This is actually a new posting, but I am including the text of one from yesterday in which I made some observations about this Titan episode. It is attached here since the two things are linked.

"Information levels up; anxiety levels down"

It was encouraging to see the Premier scrummed today expressing increasing comfort with the information he is getting about the upcoming Titan 4B launch on Sunday.

Over the past 24 hours or so, I have been getting a bit of clarity of my own on what the basic problem was. If there is any doubt or confusion from any earlier posts, let me try to put my conclusions as succinctly as possible.

1. It appears that neither the provincial government nor the oil companies noticed the number of rockets flying over the Grand Banks before.

2. Therefore, when information on this launch was handed to them, there was a legitimate and understandable "holy shit" reaction. Everybody here reacted as one would want them to react.

3. The Premier and others went searching for information, primarily from the federal government. Again, this is exactly what anyone would expect.

4. There is a limited or non-existent capability within the provincial government to make any independent assessments of defence- or security-related information that affect the province. I base this on my observations of this case and my knowledge of other cases from previous administrations going back 20 years. There is a systemic dependence on the feds. Yes, I know this is a federal area of responsibility but broader security issues like this are at least a joint responsibility.

5. The feds never really paid any attention to this launch for a variety of reasons. The simplest one is that officials at DND or Public Safety likely looked at the mission, calculated the risk and then decided there was no big deal here. They may have passed on the information to provincial Emergency Measures but it may have been flagged as "information purposes only", as opposed to "get ready to panic". Essentially, the federal interpretation of this event was the right one if they watched but didn't rush to action.

6. The Premier's ongoing frustration with this matter and his public comments stem for the basic lack of information he was getting. He either wasn't getting good briefings, what he was getting was crap, or he just didn't trust what he was hearing. Either way, he has a significant issue to deal with because...

7. The provincial government should be able to make some security-related assessments on its own using a variety of information sources. If the oil companies lacked information and were hopping up and down, the provincial government should have been able to calm them down somewhat. Then they could proceed to ask some focused, informed questions outside the glare of public scrutiny

8. If the Premier had received reliable information as early as Thursday, he may not have gone public as quickly as he did. As a consequence, he would have avoided putting everyone else on edge. Don't be surprised if the Americans were scared of law-suits. I noted that prospect days ago. As such they would become even more reluctant to share information, especially if they had any fear at all that a confidential briefing would be on CNN that night or the next day. Get lawyers involved: everyone's backside tightens.

9. On that basis it may well have been possible to defuse this matter as early as Saturday last week, i.e. 10 Apr 05, a mere three days after the initial scare.

10. As it is, the thing is finally settling down. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a decision taken to continue drilling as if nothing happened.

11. If anyone wants briefings on the launch licensing process for US rockets, the safety precautions and the international and domestic US legal issues, please let me know. I can easily deliver them to a group for an appropriate fee. After all that is one of the things I do for a living.

And yes, as you can expect me to say, just remember you read it here first.

What a difference a few hours make - updated

Hearing Premier Williams' scrum Friday on the Titan booster crisis made me want to take back the good things I posted about him earlier.

Friday we got the old hysterical Danny from the offshore revenues fracas. Here's the CBC Here and Now broadcast from Friday complete with Deanne Fleet's report at time incidence 6:39. This link needs RealPlayer. CBC uses a submarine launched ballistic missile to illustrate the story - missile guys. The Premier uses a 1998 Titan accident (see "The Missileer") to highlight why he is worried. The Premier sounds increasingly like a guy building a case for suing on behalf of a client with "stress". Remember the guy who sued Fear Factor because he was grossed out by one of the food stunts? You get the idea.

The Premier sounded hysterical in the sense of "uncontrollably emotional; convulsive, fitful...In a state of panic or behaving in a wild irrational manner, due to fear or emotional trauma."

We are living under a threat, according to the Premier.

He needs an assurance from the US government that this missile has absolutely "zero" chances of hitting the Hibernia rig or that if it comes close that the impact won't disrupt the rig. Someone should make the transcript public so people can see everything the Premier said and how he said it.

The Premier has caused unwarranted and unneeded public worry with his irresponsible comments.

To make matters worse, some national media are now talking about a missile flying "over Newfoundland" when the bloody thing will actually burn up on re-entry over 400 kilometres out to sea.

In the meantime, the Premier is apparently miffed, perplexed, annoyed and angered that people are giving conflicting information. Well, that's easy enough to solve: give me a call and I'll set you straight.

The CBC nationally has picked up this same crap, referring to conflicts between agencies in the US government that actually don't have anything directly to do with the launch. Some guy from State says the launch is on for Wednesday, which is likely what his subordinates briefed him. meantime some Captain from Space Command in Colorado says the date hasn't been reset.

Now I am not sure how reporters followed their daisy chain to get comments from these guys but let me put this out there as a wild-eyed, radical like a Russian-anarchist kind of idea:

The rocket is being fired by USAF Space Command, so the Space Command guy likely knows what he is talking about. The guy from State probably needed a briefing on where Canada was let alone why some place called New Finland was upset.

In any event, the launch was postponed for technical reasons and once those reasons are fixed, up she goes. That's what I have been saying all along. Won't someone please pay attention?

But what's the conflict furrowing the brow of Der Premier? Literally whether or not there is a one in 10 million or a one in a trillion chance of the rig being affected in any way possible. As I listened to the scrum played today by Ted Blades "On the Go" I heard a personal injury lawyer who can see the red lights on the ambulance.

We live under threat, alright: A threat that someone with a grip on reality might seize the microphone and tell everyone to go back to sleep.

We live now under a new threat. Engineers are reportedly meeting tomorrow (Saturday) to put some kind of firm numbers on the probability of impact. Add the lawyers to the equation and we will get even more confusion.

In the meantime, I will drag everyone back to what I said before: there is no problem. There is no threat. The odds are either one in 10 million or one in a trillion the platforms won't be hit by a piece of the Titan 403B booster.

I wish I could get those kind of odds that say Danny Williams might take a pill before his next scrum on this subject.

Gimme a frickin' break.

Getting it right and other Titan-ic issues

Without making it a great saga, I posted comments this morning about the province's response to the Titan booster issue and specifically some comments attributed to the Premier that came from a VOCM story. The story is still posted, so you can go and have a look at it for yourself.

As I have said before, VOCM is a news outlet than can describe a situation accurately in as few words as possible. Sometimes, though, interpretations can go astray or the few words chosen can lead people like me to make the wrong conclusion.

Here's the bit in question: "Meantime, Premier Williams says the incident drives home the need for a missile defence system. He is a strong backer of the part that Happy Valley-Goose Bay can play in such a system."

When I read that, I had a hard time figuring how anyone could link these two things together. My post - since deleted because I was wrong - focused on the idea that the linkage apparently drawn by the Premier was based on faulty information from various briefings he may have received. It fits with my overall interpretation that, based on what's in the public domain, this whole thing looked like a massive over-reaction on someone's part.

That said, let me make at least this much clear: the Premier's reaction, while full of his customary hyperbole, was entirely what I would have expected given the information he seems to have received. If I thought that there was a remote chance some gigantic rocket might possibly crash into the Hibernia rig, I'd be making a huge issue about it publicly, in addition to phoning anyone who could do something about it and making sure that there was no threat to life in the event the launch went ahead.

Full marks go to Premier Williams.

As I noted in "Massive Correction" someone else who was at the Premier's scrum put the whole thing in context for me. I can see where the issue came from - it was a huge stretch to even ask the question in this context - and the Premier's reply, as I have it, didn't draw a direct link.

There are still some lingering questions in my mind on this matter, despite the fact most news media have moved on to other things.

The offshore production platforms would certainly make my list of national strategic assets for several reasons. They certainly are major assets for the operators and I take it as a matter of course that the operators monitor potential threats to their property.

Aside from the economic implications of a complete shutdown of offshore production for any length of time, some other agencies like Coast Guard, National Defence, Transport Canada, Environment Canada and some provincial government departments could be called on to respond to any disaster like an impact on the platforms or in assisting in the evacuation.

On a number of levels, this Titan booster issue highlights the importance of emergency preparedness and the need for effective communication and co-ordinated action by public and private sector organizations. I am not saying this did not occur appropriately - sometimes excrement occurs - but the wider lessons/implications of this incident should not be lost.

In that context, though, I am still wondering:

1. When did one of the key players (operators, federal government, CNOPB, provincial government) become aware of this launch as a potential threat to the production platforms?

2. When did the first one who noticed alert the others, all of whom have parts to play?

3. What, if any, mitigation action was taken before ordering the evacuation of the platforms and the relocation of the semi-submersible platform? For example, if ExxonMobil spotted it, I suspect a call from their head office to Washington would have generated more than enough of a response given:

a. the economic value of the assets to US-owned companies;
b. the strategic value of oil to the US economy in the current world economy; and,
c. the fact that both the President and Vice-President are generally familiar with the oil business.

4. Who ordered the evacuation, or depopulation as it has been euphemistically called?

5. On what basis was the evac ordered?

6. Did Ottawa take action before or after the call from Danny Williams or was it more or less simultaneous?

7. Where exactly were the offshore platforms in relation to the anticipated debris zone? To my mind, this is a crucial issue to determine the validity of the evacuation order. Since rocket launches from Florida are not new, this contingency may have already been considered. Maybe it is a completely unique event.

These are just questions. Honestly, I don't know the answers nor do I presume to know them. I am just tossing them out there for consideration.

Incidentally, this incident has been described by some national media as a "test" launch. Wherever they are getting this from, it is wrong.

This is a routine event in every respect, except for the apparent implications for Hibernia and Terra Nova.

Look to the skys!

A bizarre afternoon in Newfoundland and Labrador, what with the Premier calling a hasty news conference to talk about American missiles falling from the sky and coming close to the "massive" Hibernia platform. Such was the panic that there was a plan to evacuate the Hibernia platform and the Terra Nova FPSO and tow another semi-submersible rig out of the potential impact area.

Well, here's what it was really all about.

- This launch has been scheduled for some time, according to both the Kennedy Centre website and other sites on the net that track missile launches globally. One site reports this payload was originally scheduled for a launch in 2001 at Vandenberg air force base in California. The mission was subsequently moved to Canaveral. It has been scheduled and rescheduled at least three times since late March owing to problems reportedly with the payload or with ground equipment.

- The mission, labeled B-30, is a launch by the United States Air Force of a classified payload labeled NROL-16 for the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) , using a Titan 4B booster from Cape Canaveral, Florida. In plain English, it's a "spy" satellite, although I dislike that term for a variety of reasons. Here's a link with some speculation on the payload and other details. Here's another link with even more detail on the possible payload, a radar imaging satellite similar to several launched in the late 1990s and 2000.

- This is one of the last launches for the Titan 4B. It is getting old and costly. In fact some of the delays in this mission have been due to equipment problems related to the booster. Here's a piece from the roll-out last fall.

- These satellites are usually placed in very specific orbits and together with others provide complete global coverage. There is some room to adjust launch trajectories but I'd guess not a heck of a lot.

- This is nothing new. Boosters and other missile bits have been falling into the sea off Newfoundland for as long as there have been missiles launched from Florida. In the 1980s two US Navy range telemetry ships stopped in port. I still have pictures of the visit of USNS Range Sentinel.

- I'd venture there have been other launches in the general direction of the Hibernia platform before on a similar trajectory.

- Each of these launches involves the booster burning up on re-entry although pieces of the booster will return to Earth. To estimate the chances of having something hit Hibernia, do the following: Stand on top of the Fortis Building. Using a penny, hit the postage stamp I have laid in the middle of Water Street. Keep your eyes closed throughout.

- As part of the normal planning for an event like this, the launching agency would prepare a footprint giving an anticipated zone in which debris will fall. This is shown as an ellipse on a map and several larger ellipses around it representing areas where it is less likely but possible that debris may strike.

Each of these zones would be tens of kilometres wide.

The big issue here is where within that footprint map the Hibernia rig fell.

- In Ottawa, this launch would have been part of the normal intelligence briefings at DND for senior officers and officials and senior ministers would have been briefed as well. PCO has a section that would have noticed it and it appears cabinet was actually briefed today.

- It would be normal for senior ministers (DND and Public Security) as well as senior officials to contact their US counterparts to express concern at the proximity to the oilfields. Their ability to influence things would be minor in dealing with a sensitive payload like this unless there was plenty of room to pick a different trajectory.

- While it is possible the US planners missed the Hibernia rig in their planning, I'd doubt it very much for a whole bunch of reasons. Danny Williams suggestion that they goofed is a typical bit of Williams fantasy.

- The simple fact is that the rig is massive only if you are one person standing right next to it. From 180 miles in space across a vast sea it is a fixed spot. The chances of hitting the rig or any other man-made object are slim. The launch was scheduled for about 2230 EDT (0000 NDT) for a reason: less air traffic. The Americans also issue routine warnings to mariners to avoid specific areas as a normal precaution.

- The problem in assessing Danny Williams' comments about 15 miles is that we have no idea who briefed him and what they told him. Reporters should take his comments with a bag of salt. It appears from some of his comments that the Premier was briefed by officials and did not get information from senior federal officials directly.

Is the rig 15 miles outside the high probability impact zone? Well, that zone would be miles wide. My guess is that some official didn't get complete information and if they did, they didn't interpret it correctly. That led to a legitimate level of anxiety on the Premier's part and the subsequent news conference.

Basically, the Newfoundland government has no internal capability to assess anything defence related. They are at the mercy of a bunch of factors, including a complete lack of experience in dealing with this sort of issue. Given that everyone, officials and politicians are well removed from the major analysis sites in Ottawa, the chance for misunderstanding and miscommunication are magnified.

I could recount stories of Davis Inlet and the first Gulf War but that is for another time. This is not about which party is in power; it is about a lack of expertise within the provincial government.

- The American delay, described as being either for 48 hours or indefinitely depending on who is reporting it, likely has nothing to do with Canadian concerns. Given the history of Titan 4B boosters, the repeated rescheduling of this mission and that the system is due to be phased out, I'd suspect the Americans are dealing with some mechanical issues.

Canadian Press and CBC desperately need online fact checker

Someone needs to start doing some fact checking on stories posted on CBC’s web site.

A Canadian Press story on a Russian Proton K rocket contains this claim:

The Proton-K re-entry was reminiscent of a 2005 incident, when a U.S. military rocket splashed down in the vicinity of the Hibernia oil platform, on Newfoundland's Grand Banks, shortly after its launch from Florida.

The planned launch of the Titan IV B-30 rocket prompted Premier Danny Williams to order an evacuation of several offshore-oil platforms.

But the order was soon rescinded when American air force officials assured Ottawa the risks were small and the rocket would be destroyed if it veered off course.

None of it happened.

1.  Danny Williams didn’t order an evacuation of rigs – he doesn’t have the legal authority.

2.  Danny didn’t rescind the order not only because he didn’t give it  in the first place but because the evacuation  - or more accurately, a removal of non-essential personnel - went ahead. 

3.  The assurances from American authorities were the same all the way through the sorry-assed episode. The government reaction went through a few permutations mostly as people stopped making asses of themselves in public but nothing the Americans said produced any changes in the provincial government reaction.

4.  The Titan didn’t “splash down”.  The booster section broke up as it returned to Earth, as predicted. 

5.  The thing also wasn’t near the Hibernia rig unless more than 100 kilometres away is “near”.

Seriously, people.  This stuff happened within the past five years.  The facts are readily accessible on line.  It’s astonishing that CP would cock it up that badly and CBC would let the cock-up stand.

CP and CBC need a fact checker.

-srbp-

Emergency!

Premier Danny Williams announced on Friday that the province will be spending about $5.0 million next fiscal year to improve the province's ability to respond to emergencies.

Aside from the new bodies in health and wildlife, there will be three new people hired in the province's emergency measures organization, including a new fire protection officer, a new financial assistance co-ordinator and a new emergency management officer.

A new deputy minister position was also created some time ago specifically responsible for emergency response planning.

All this is very good news, especially in light of the Titan missile fiasco last year or the September 11 thing. The provincial government's inability to process intelligence and respond appropriately was painfully obvious in both incidents. The technical term for the situation on those occasions was TARFU.

Let's see how things improve.

Two things to note, however:

1. There is no sign the provincial government has created an ability to assess information coming to it and make appropriate decisions. Information co-ordination - i.e. intelligence gathering and analysis - is a key element of the emergency response puzzle.

Otherwise, as in the Titan fiasco, we wind up with GIGO: garbage in, garbage out, which inevitably leads back to TARFU.

Or, as in the 9/11 thing we wind up watching people pull things out of the nearest available bodily orifice.

The technical term for this is SNAFU, which is not what you want by any means, either.

2. There is no communications/public information/public relations position anywhere in the mix. If we have learned anything in emergency response in North America over the past decade, it would be that emergency communications is a crucial element in the overall success of the mission.

Unless this gets fixed sooner rather than later, the whole emergency response will be FUBAR no matter how many public health nurses there are, doses of bird flu vaccine sitting in storage or how many new financial assistance co-ordinators are busily co-ordinating financial assistance for the new emergency management officer and the new fire protection officer.

There needs to be a dedicated emergency communications co-ordinator, with staff and the appropriate resources to help get everyother jurisdiction in the province sorted out.

Psst. there's federal money available to help pay for this, by the way.

Prayer no substitute for preparation: province lacks emergency plan

Almost four years after the September 11 incident and despite examples of natural disasters in this province and neighbouring provinces over the past five years, Newfoundland and Labrador still does not have a functioning emergency response plan.

Provincial officials have worked in the document since 2001 yet are no closer to finishing it, despite almost 48 months of work.

The provincial response to the 9/11 incident was improvised, despite a federal-provincial training exercise in 1999 which included a scenario involving 30 international commercial passenger flights being diverted to Newfoundland and Labrador airports.

Effective co-ordination of the response was hampered by the chaotic nature of Emergency Measures Organization's operations centre. Daily decision meetings reportedly took place in the command centre and involved at times upwards of 64 people, all of whom had input to the meetings which lasted for hours.

In one incident, a request to National Defence for military camp cots was routed by the Department of Health through Health Canada despite military officials being present in the EMO command centre. Subsequent public comments by both the premier and the provincial cabinet minister responsible for emergency response did nothing other than strain relations with the federal government. In a situation reminiscent of the current situation in New Orleans, their public political criticism of federal authorities was actually rooted in their own organizational failures rather than in any shortcomings of federal support.

The provincial public relations response was a disaster in itself. Emergency public relations involves communicating essential, operational information to news media and the general public. The first media briefing took place over six hours after the incident began, took place in an area that ought to have been closed to news media and gave very little useful information on the provincial response. Subsequent provincial government briefings focused on actions in the metropolitan St. John's area.

In one memorable incident, a CBC host tried repeatedly to get concrete information from the provincial municipal affairs minister on how volunteers could help provincial efforts. His attempts to gain practical information were ignored by the minister who was intent on praising officials for their efforts. This release is typical, for example, with its extensive praise of local efforts and very little practical information on emergency response activities.

For those looking for basic information on the province's emergency plan, the provincial government website contains only this section on the province's Emergency Measures Organization.

By contrast, there is this site from the Nova Scotia government. Among other things, the site contains a great deal of useful advice for individuals on emergency preparedness.

Recent experience with the Titan missile incident demonstrated the fundamental breakdown of the province's emergency response system, particularly as it relates to the identification of potential threats, accurate threat assessment and appropriate response.

No provincial government officials hold valid federal security clearances. Such clearances enable them to routinely access sensitive intelligence on potential threats and would allow them to attend international briefings on emergency response. Provincial officials were excluded from a U.S. government briefing on the Titan missile launch earlier this year solely because they lacked a security clearance.

Speaking of the shuttle Danny...

Since the Premier got so agitated about nothing with the last Titan mission, I wonder if anyone has briefed him on the shuttle.

1. The last five shuttle missions have used the high inclination launch angle. The next five plan for the same thing.

2. The last mission had some impacts on the underside of the orbiter on the way to orbit. That's what led to the disintegration of the orbiter on re-entry.

3. Therefore, it is highly likely that any launch problems will trigger a mission abort.

4. Pop quiz: what happens next?

5. Pop answer: the large, liquid fuel tank is jettisoned, the orbiter is brought around and the pilot heads for the nearest runway.

6. And where might those runways be, you ask?

7. They are located at Goose Bay, Gander and St. John's. The latter one is only used in a pinch since the runways are so frickin short compared to Goose and Gander.

8. The tank falls somewhere in the ocean with much less precision than the Titan launch vehicle did.

Oh well. I guess we'll hear more of that as we get closer to launch day.

Province knew about rocket launch on 31 Mar 05

CBC news reports today that the provincial government knew about the Titan rocket launch as early as 31 March 2005. But for some reason that information didn't make it to Premier Danny Williams until 05 April 05, more than a week later.

Officials are said to be investigating the reasons for the delay.

As noted here last week, the problem is a systemic one within government and will need more than a quickie "review" to fix. It involves more than just the supposed delay in passing information to the premier.

It should involve how information is gathered, assessed and acted on. The review should include development of an integrated provincial emergency plan, similar to the ones in Nova Scotia and British Columbia.

In addition, the review should address specific issues that rose during the Titan case. These would include the collapse of public emergency communications on the first day of the crisis in a way that mirrored the collapse on September 11, 2001.

Smart organizations always go through a lessons-learned process after every incident. The one for the provincial government should be much more detailed and has much greater implications than the CBC story suggests.

As for the rest of the story on CBC - the launch delay - there's nothing surprising in that. The delay is caused by technical problems, as we reported here shortly after the initial launch delay.

Expect more.

Massive Correction

In the post "Speaking of badly briefed" I made some comments on the Premier and his scrum yesterday flowing from a VOCM story this morning.

Based on new information from someone who was there and whose information I regard as accurate and factual I know want to make a massive, unequivocal correction, retracting my comments or any implication that the Premier had in any way linked the Titan booster to ballistic missile defence.

I have it on an authority I trust that the Premier made no link whatsoever between the two.

In response to a reporter's question on how this issue might affect the prospect of a ballistic missile defence installation at Goose Bay, the Premier repeated his support for the X Band radar at Goose Bay, as he would be expected to do.

It is completely erroneous to link the issue of BMD and the Titan booster issue. I withdraw any remarks I made on that subject without reservation or qualification as they relate to the Premier. No inference should be drawn from my remarks in the previous post as they were wrong.

In fact, I am going back and deleting it.

You read it here, first - the Space version - revised

As I told you yesterday, "Given the history of Titan 4B boosters, the repeated rescheduling of this mission and that the system is due to be phased out, I'd suspect the Americans are dealing with some mechanical issues."

As VOCM is reporting: "Meantime, the U.S. Air Force Space Command at Cape Canaveral says the launch was postponed because of mechanical problems with ground support equipment."

Go the US Air Force Space Command webpage and you'll see the schedule for launches at Canaveral. NROL-16 is still listed but with the launch date being "no earlier than 11 April 05".

In other coverage, the Canadian Press story is running in various forms in all the major newspapers. The Post is checking to see if Jean Brault mentioned anything about it in his explosive testimony before committing to coverage. Explosive testimony. Explosive missile. Do the math.

CBC's national has a script story and a video story [<--requires Real Player] by our own Chris O'Neill-Yates. (Psst Chris: the launch video you used is a submarine launched missile not a Titan)