In related news, the number of Tories running to replace Loyola Sullivan is at five and headed to as many as eight according to CBC radio. The words that come to mind are "safe seat".
Spec on Loyola's sudden departure continues to mount. There's the version that he had his office cleaned out either before he told Danny or a handful of hours afterward. That's quick.
Then there's the version that Sullivan brought back a deal on Equalization that would include a phase in period, with transitional grants for provinces like Newfoundland and Labrador that would see a drop in their Equalization payments under the new scheme.
This one sounds plausible since transitional grants were part of the Connie 2004 election platform. Then they were looking at 12 years of transition; the figure bandied around now would be more like four.
The falling out under that scenario came when Premier Danny Williams rejected any loss of revenue.
Then there's the last explanation of Loyola's abrupt departure which holds that the Rain Man from Ferryland was growing increasingly frustrated with how things run - or sometimes don't run - in the Confederation Building these days. That's plausible too.
Speculation is already growing about who won't be running in the next election. Names tossed around so far include deputy ayatollah Tom Rideout, intergovernmental affairs minister John Ottenheimer and municipal affairs minister Jack Byrne for the Tories. On the Liberal side, the names include Kel Parsons, Judy Foote, Percy Barrett and just about half the caucus.
Names vary depending on who you talk to for both Liberals and Tories looking to quit politics. Only time will tell.
There's no speculation on Ross Reid, formerly the deputy minister to the premier, who resigned today to head up the provincial Tory re-election campaign.
Reid is widely respected and capable. If your humble e-scribbler hasn't said so before, let's make it plain now: Reid would be the finest replacement for Danny when he finally packs it in on the planned departure date in 2010. If Reid ever decides to get back into politics either federally or provincially, he can expect wide support. There simply aren't that many people in the province with Ross' talents.
Of course, that appointment is sure to raise the spectre of an early election call in Newfoundland and Labrador. There are no signs of a quickie writ at all, but Reid's appointment might just start tongues wagging. The Premier could use either a new war with Ottawa over Equalization as the premise or he could seek an endorsement of his energy plan and playing hardball with the oil companies. Either way it would be a jihad against foreign infidels which tends to play well in local politics, especially when led - as in 1982 - by our own version of the Mad Mullah.
If Claudia Cattaneo's Financial Post piece turns out to be accurate in its speculation an energy plan mandating an automatic Crown interest in any offshore field would need a public endorsement to withstand the onslaught of criticism. It would also be an unassailable political issue akin to the January 2005 offshore deal where emotion - and a heckuvalot of sheer political bullshit - trumped reason yet again. Liberal candidates would be falling over themselves to endorse the position, just as they did in 1982.
As for political fall-out, Danny Williams might take a few seconds of heat for not waiting until October but even in the worst case scenario, any criticism of an early election would evaporate well before polling day and would have absolutely nil negative impact on Danny Williams' re-election. The full impact - as in 1982 - wouldn't be felt until after Danny is gone.
Oh.
And for those who think there's no way to go early, recall that the so-called fixed elections date bill didn't really set a fixed date for elections. The 2004 amendments to the House of Assembly Act state clearly:
3. (1) Notwithstanding subsection (2), the Lieutenant-Governor may, by proclamation in Her Majesty’s name, prorogue or dissolve the House of Assembly when the Lieutenant-Governor sees fit.Practically, we wouldn't need an election before October but - just as in 1999 - the Premier's agenda may trump all others'. Way back then, Brian Tobin's eagerness to head back to Ottawa with two election victories led him to plan an election for early September 1998. First signs emerged in April of that year but Tobin's plans were bumped back, at the last minute, by a caucus that was uncomfortable with an election only two years after the previous one. Tobin dropped the writ in January 1999 instead.
(2) A polling day at a general election shall be held on the second Tuesday in October, 2007 and afterward on the second Tuesday in October in the fourth calendar year following the polling day at the most recently held general election.
