Delusional or in hyper-torque mode?
Either way, provincial finance minister Jerome Kennedy is living on Fantasy Island if he thinks the rate of in-migration is a sign that this “demonstrates the confidence that individuals have in Newfoundland and Labrador, our strong economic position, and in making it their home.”
The change is only two tenths of one percent. That’s hardly a stampede. That’s hardly the sign of people building makeshift rafts to scramble to Nirvana or the New Jerusalem.
That’s hardly the sign of an economy that is growing, even by the hyper-optimistic provincial government estimate of 2%, compared to the almost 10% growth of 2007.
Nope, it’s a sign that things are shutting down everywhere else.
The big hat tip on this one goes to labradore. Incidentally, you can find a taste of WJM’s stuff in his own commentary on Jerome’s news release. He started analysing the demographic trends a while ago and concluded that the changing population follows a pattern. Right before a major recession elsewhere, there’s a blackflow in the pipeline of people leaving the province for greener pastures elsewhere. Those would be the people with a relatively weak social and economic attachment to their new home who decide to weather the coming rough economic times living with Mom and Dad.
He predicted the pattern long before the current recession hit. Like clockwork, the numbers held, just as Kennedy trumpets: “For four of the last five quarters blah blah blah”.
Jerome just got the reason wrong.
Badly wrong.
That would normally be okay, but there are consequences. You see, too many locals are being duped into believing Jerome is right on this sort of stuff.
When the truth hits, it may well be very painful. Just ask the people living in the region governed by Big Tory Graham Letto. The guy who ran as a Provincial Conservative in 2003 followed the line set by his political buddies about us living in a bubble. Even though this newfangled Internet contraption has been in that part of the woods for a while – it’s facetious people he said pre-empting the e-mails – Graham decided it was better to spout the talking points than, say, think for himself. Hence his astonishment when – as anyone else could have told him – IOCC decided to delay the expansion that had been fuelling his little economic boom.
Boom.
Bust.
Letto’s cheesy smile sure won’t make the sting of that one go away, just like Jerome’s new release won’t be any help come next spring when Jerome’s got to sort out a difficult year in his budget.
As for the backflow, it will last as long as the recession lasts and then those people will head back to where the real work is.
You see, that’s because there has never been an economic development Plan A for the current crowd, let alone a Plan B or even a Plan C that some are now praying for. They’ve just been making it up as they went along.
-srbp-
