Connie Leadership 2011: editorial kick-back

From the Thursday Telegram, comes a rather nasty editorial comment on the charade that is the Conservative caucus plan to replace Danny Williams:

By comparison, Danny Williams announced his candidacy for the Tory leadership on Dec. 6, 2000, but nominations didn’t close until Jan. 31.

Some will point out that anyone interested in the leadership has known it was coming since Williams resigned at the end of November. Then again, Ed Byrne announced his resignation in June, giving possible candidates seven months to make up their minds about running.

In the coded language dominating political life in Newfoundland and Labrador these days, this editorial is a pretty sharply worded rebuke.

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Connie Leadership 2011: Persistent Rumour Department

All Christmas.

Jerome! will announce he won’t be running for re-election.

Sometime before the end of January, he’ll make a statement. 

Yes, yes, everyone knows that Jerome!’s already said publicly he’ll be running again but this rumour has survived that pretty clear statement.  After all, Danny insisted he was running again but that turned out to be not quite what happened.

And it only took the Old Man a week or so to go from telling Debbie Cooper that he was constantly re-evaluating his future to flinging his gear into the truck and heading for the hills.

If Jerome doesn’t run again, he doesn’t qualify for a politician’s pension. That could be a powerful incentive to stay on for another term.  

There’s pretty much no hope of a seat on a federally-appointed court.  His buddies could appoint him to the Provincial Court but they’d have to give him a pretty senior and largely made-up appointment.  No one expects that Jerome! is going to be sitting in Goose Bay or anything like that. That would also lead to lots of guffawing in the legal community as the guy who slagged political patronage appointments to the bench became one.

If Jerome doesn’t run again, then he’d have to go back to the old law practice or find some other business to pay the bills.

And then people could wonder who might run for the Conservatives in his place. 

For now, though, it is still just a rumour.

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Connie Leadership 2011: democratic deficit

The latest twists in the Conservative leadership story are starting to look a bit more like a soap opera than usual even in a place where the last seven years in politics have centred on how tightly knotted The Leader’s sphincter was at the moment.

With a mere three working days left to go in the very short deadline for nominations, convention co-chair Shawn Skinner wound up encouraging people to file nomination papers.

Now the comment only lasted until about noon on Wednesday and only on VOCM, the voice of the cabinet minister. Here’s what he had to say although the story has since been officially disappeared by VOCM:

Progressive Conservative Convention Chair Shawn Skinner is encouraging people to come forward as the deadline for nominations for the PC Party leadership, this coming Monday, quickly approaches. So far Acting Premier Kathy Dunderdale is the only person who has come forward. Skinner says the PCs are hoping someone else with some interest will enter the race for the party's top spot.

Only a half day hardly makes for a serious effort to scare up nominations and after all, Shawn knows full well the party isn’t really looking for a leadership contest.

If the Tories really wanted a leadership contest then he and his mates wouldn’t have busily done the back-room secret deal to keep Kathy Dunderdale in the job. 

And if Shawn and his pals really wanted an open and fair competition like the kind real political parties have in a democracy, then they wouldn’t be talking about how scared they are of a blood bath.

Shawn’s comments came after someone [Shurely not Tom Rideout] complained about the process to VOCM and the gang at VO reported the tale.

Shawn mumbled something into the microphone about how the party constitution is the reason for the really short nomination process.  As copies of the constitution started turning up on the Internet, though, that lame excuse disappeared faster than a completely spontaneous “Draft Steve Kent” movement started up last month.

What must really be troubling the crowd running the Conservative Party, though, must be a story that ran on NTV.  Political science prof Alex Marland is concerned about the lack of democracy inside the Conservative Party.  Marland makes a number of solid points, not the least of which is the importance of renewing and reinvigorating a political party through a leadership contest. The Conservatives are very consciously avoiding that renewal.  You can add to that the simple point that the Conservatives are also going to head into the next election with a leader everyone knows will not be the leader three years from now.

With the words “democratic deficit” swirling around the Conservative Party already, 2011 is shaping up to be a very interesting year in provincial politics.  There’s little fear of a new personality cult emerging and the fallout from the old one may just be starting to show up in public comments about the ruling Conservatives.  Bill Rowe made a rather telling observation the other day about how quick people are these days to say uncomplimentary things about the Old Man now that he’s out of power. 

Bill must be having a sense of deja vue. The locals are used to dealing with bossism.  They may say one thing when The Boss is in power but once he’s gone their true feelings have a nasty way of turning up.

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Connie leadership rigged?

The fix is in and it must be getting really smelly and obvious if VOCM – aka voice of the cabinet minister  - is reporting it:

A man claiming to be contemplating a run at the Tory leadership doesn't like the process. The potential candidate, who prefers to be unnamed for the time being, says he has as much or more experience than Kathy Dunderdale. The man cites a lack of public notice and public disclosure as reasons for his displeasure, and goes so far as to call the process "rigged" and "perverted."
Nominations opened December 30 and will close on January 10. The potential candidates point out the Progressive Conservative office was closed for several of those days because of the holiday schedule. He also says there is a $5,000 fee and a requirement of fifty party signatures to seek the party's top spot. All this, he suggests, makes it virtually impossible to apply for the PC leadership, unless they are already in.

VOCM got a comment from convention co-chair Shawn Skinner to the effect that “he arbitrary timeframe for party nominations had to be set based on the party's constitution, and that everyone should have known from the time Williams announced his resignation on November 25 that the party would be seeking another leader.”

Some observations:

1.  Where is the party constitution?  If, as Shawn Skinner claims, the whole process is dictated by the party’s constitution surely he and his mates could have posted the constitution for all to see.  It’s called being transparent and open.

As it stands, the Conservative Party website doesn’t give any information on the constitution at all.  Anyone checking the website wouldn’t even know that there was a constitution.

2.  The news release announcing the nomination process gives absolutely no details on the requirements.  It doesn’t give any links to go to find information.  This 5K and 50 signatures would come as a complete surprise to anyone who had a week or so to scrape everything together.

In fact, here’s the complete news release, as issued December 30:

Progressive Conservative Party President John Babb and Convention Co-chairs Minister Shawn Skinner and Minister Joan Burke announced that nominations for the leadership will open at 12:00 noon, today, Thursday, December 30, 2010, and will close at 12:00 noon on Monday, January 10, 2011.

Delegate selection meetings to commence after the close of nominations. Details related to the date and location of the leadership convention will be announced at a later date.

There’s a contact name and number on there as well but other than that information – nominations are open and that they close with more information to follow there is exactly zilch in the way of meaningful information.

Well whaddyaknow Update: Turns out there is a link in the upper right hand corner that gives a bunch of forms.  Essentially, the information there is the same as the stuff in the VO stuff:  a 5k deposit and 50 party members in good standing.

If you want the constitution you have to contact the office.


3. “fifty party signatures”  WTF?  This is a party that has open nomination meetings:  anyone can go and vote.  So how exactly does one find out who are “party” people to contact so that one could collect signatures?

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Pater knows best

Telegram editor Russell Wangersky has some suggestions for the provincial Conservatives now that Danny is gone:

• “Reform the province’s access to information legislation so that citizens of the province actually have a right to information, rather than depending on the divine right of cabinet ministers to release what they deign fit. …”
• “Whistleblower legislation….”
• House of Assembly sittings….”  More of ‘em, says Russell.
• “Provide more information on just what is happening with Muskrat Falls, the single largest project on this province’s horizon and one that could topple us into Irish-style superdebt.”

Wonderful ideas.

Great ones, in fact.

There’s only one teensy problem.

The Conservatives didn’t get to their awesome standing in the province by letting these sorts of pesky things like transparency and accountability get in their way.

And what’s more, Russell said that was cool:

“I voted for him, and, truth be told, I would have voted for him again. Premier Danny Williams, that is.”

…

“That being said, for the last seven years, Danny Williams has been the right choice to run this province, and, regardless of any number of complaints, he’s done it well.”

You see, the same guy who Russell thinks was just neat-o had no time for all those things Russell writes about.

He didn’t.

He said he was all about accountability and transparency. 

But as we all know,  his actions spoke volumes louder than any words he ever uttered.

You just can’t endorse political strong-men on the one hand and then wonder where the democracy went on the other.

And as for the gang who held Danny aloft and who now run the place in his stead?  Well, just expect more of the same.  Politicians go with what works and, as Russell so ably demonstrated, nothing succeeds around these parts like old-fashioned paternalism.

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Connie Leadership 2011: Fear and Loathing in the Caucus Room

Most people now realise that Kathy Dunderdale is staying on as leader and Premier a result of some secret backroom deal within the Conservative Party.

As nottawa notes, the Connies are giving potential rivals a mere 11 days to come forward.  That compares to the couple of months Yvonne Jones’ potential rivals had.  In other words, the Conservatives will go through a complete charade including what they are calling a leadership convention.

Despite this rather obvious political fraud, the people of the province know that they have a new premier thanks to a secret deal – not even a vote – cut by unnamed people in dark rooms.  It is like the good old 1920s all over again when administrations came and went over-night based on shifting alliances and unspoken promises.

And the people of the province can sleep soundly knowing their fate and that fate of the public treasury is determined by shadowy figures and endorsed by the Connie caucus.

Well, virtually all, according to the semi-official news agency VOCM – voice of the cabinet minister.

That word “virtually” suggests that some members objected or at the very least didn’t display the requisite enthusiasm.

Now there may well be nothing to that beyond an inexperienced reporter’s careless use of words.  But then again, there might be a bit more to it.  Politicians are, by nature, an ambitious lot.  Some of them have been forced to curb their tongues for upwards of seven years.  Their personal ambitions took a back seat to the Old Man’s interests and his iron grip on the caucus and the Confederation Building. Now they are told to sit on their ambitions yet again for another period of time.

Some other members of the Conservative caucus may well be uncomfortable with the decidedly anti-democratic way that Kathy Dunderdale is getting the job.  Some may recall the anointed Connie kingpin Danny Williams’ attacks on Roger Grimes over a far more democratic selection in the Liberal Party in 2001.  Hypocrisy never bothered Williams like it does others, but that is another story.

That lack of unanimity may well explain why Dunderdale held such a low-key announcement of her candidacy:  a scrum, attended by none save a single aide and the local media. it had the air of being a lash-up job.

That lack of unanimity, of course, is what this backroom deal is really all about.  Conservatives in St. John’s are clearly afraid that a leadership fight over the next two or three months will make for a Conservative of repeat of what they characterise as the divisive 2001 Liberal contest.

There are divisions within the Conservative Party.  Those divisions must be deep.  They must be deep enough to put the fear of God into the back-room boys.

Were it otherwise, the Conservatives would have a contest as they did  - successfully - in 1979 and 1989.  Instead they are afraid and loathe to tempt fate.

And for the record, the Liberal campaign in 2001 was divisive.  All leadership fights are.

John Efford and his team built part of Efford’s support on discontent over the way Brian Tobin and his close associates supposedly ran the entire party from St. John’s.  The party rank and file were passed over, according to some, in favour of those chosen by the old leader and his cronies.  Whether it is true or not is another matter, but there certainly were Liberals who felt abused.

And yes while Roger Grimes initially had some strong words about John Efford’s man Danny Dumaresque, wounds healed up before the 2003 campaign.  Grimes made a couple of appointments and everyone got on with business.

That’s what happens in politics. People have different opinions.  Leaders get paid to deal with those differences openly and cleanly, if possible, but certainly in a way that doesn’t let grievances fester.  Successful leaders are the ones who can bring a party together after a fight.  If a leader cannot unite his or her party then he or she is really not up to the job of being premier.

It is a simple and irrefutable train of logic.

By cutting a back-room deal, though, the province’s Conservatives have wound up in a very odd, and very troubling spot. 

Yes they’ve taken an anti-democratic approach. That is obvious. But then again their entire administration since 2003 is built on some of the oldest, most backward, and most pernicious political traditions of the province. It isn’t surprising they’d lurch back to the 1920s for inspiration when times got a bit tough.

More importantly, they sought to avoid what they perceived as a Liberal mistake and in the process have blundered into a much bigger one.  They have a caucus that is not united. That is never good.

To compound that, they now have a leader who is – at the very best – a caretaker until after the next general election.  Dunderdale was due to retire:  they all know that.  She is at the end of her political career. 

After October 2011, Dunderdale is gone.  It is only a question of how long she will hang on and then the Conservatives will be back in the same boat again.

In the meantime, Dunderdale has no plans and no ideas.  She is merely holding things together for an unknown period of time.

Kathy Dunderdale is a leader with no plans and – even worse - with no real political authority.

Kathy Dunderdale has her job because other people agreed to let her have it. It is not as though they were given a chance and decided not to run of their own accord.  They were persuaded not to run and that is a very different thing.

In a tough spot, Kathy Dunderdale cannot pull a Danny and lay down any laws to anyone. She cannot even build a consensus based on her own political constituency of supporters. Nor can she truthfully build a consensus based on her savvy.  She has blundered too badly in public too often for that to have any real effect for her cabinet mates. People who thought Roger grimes came out of his leadership beholden to every one of his caucus can now look on Kathy Dunderdale put in exactly the same spot, or a worse one.

Kathy Dunderdale will also have a tough time disciplining those who step out of line. Since she serves at the pleasure of her caucus she can also be dismissed by them as easily.

How much will it take to crack the veneer covering the Conservative Party?

Time will tell.

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Connie Leadership 2011: Fairity got the call too!

Kevin O’Brien told VOCM is isn’t interested in replacing Danny Williams.

Did anyone else have him in the race except your humble e-scribbler?

Sheesh. 

No one wants to be Ernie Eves.

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Marshall wants Dunderdale for Premier

Of course he does.

The fix is already in.

“This is not the leadership you are looking for” Update:  As the Telegram reminds us all, Tom Marshall pledged to take time over Christmas to think about the leadership.  Christmas must have come and gone while no one was looking.

It’s almost as if someone called him up and told him the right decision to make.

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The horrors of democracy

From a recent Telegram editorial:

Those same Republicans are now saying these heroes, many of whom suffer from chronic respiratory diseases, must stand aside until the country’s fattest fat cats get to keep their three per cent tax holiday. 

One could hardly imagine any greater depth of moral bankruptcy.

And from the news:

The US Senate on Wednesday approved a long-awaited multi-billion-dollar health package for emergency responders to the terrorist attacks of Sep 11, 2001.
…
The legislation was to be passed later Wednesday by the House of Representatives and sent to President Barack Obama's desk for signature. The approval by both chambers of Congress would come on the last day before lawmakers head home for a holiday recess.

Moral bankruptcy indeed.

Democracy is a messy business but as this bill demonstrates, in a healthy democracy parties can reconcile their contending points of view in a compromise that works for all.  In the end, the health care bill passed the Senate unanimously.

The Congress also passed a bill repealing the “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy that discriminates against homosexuals serving in the American military. And those are just some of the measures passed as the members head off to a Christmas break.  The legislators will be back in January, incidentally, hard at work passing laws and keeping the current administration accountable to the people whose money the government spends.

All that noise  that hurt the ears of the Telegram editorial board is, in fact, an essential feature of any democracy worthy of the name.  It is, to be sure, a very necessary and very natural expression of a thriving society where people can argue about ideas,  have strong disagreements and then find a middle ground that allows everyone to move forward.

Compare to the current goings on in Newfoundland and Labrador.  The legislature sits for a handful of days a year.  When it does sit, as in the eight day wonder just completed, the members spoke about a handful of pathetic bills that did little more than change the punctuation is some straight-forward bills.  They spoke about those bills – debate is hardly the word for it -  with some of the most incoherent speeches delivered in this or any other legislature on the planet.

At the same time, the governing Conservatives are busily working to avoid having any sort of open political competition within their own party for the Premier’s job recently vacated in an unseemly haste by Danny Williams.   These denizens of the proverbial smoke-filled rooms and politicians like Jerome Kennedy and Darin King are afraid. 

They are afraid not only of debate, perhaps, but of their own inability, ultimately, to bring people together.

They seem to be genuinely distrustful of politics itself.  After all, debate and reconciliation, are core features of politics in a democratic society.

Seriously.

The problem in 2001 that Tories are pointing to was not that the Liberal leadership produced differences of opinion.  Those differences exist as a matter of course in every group of human beings. The political problem for Liberals came from the fact that Roger Grimes hard trouble bringing people together on his own team in a common cause.

The Conservative effort to deliver a leader without an open competition will do nothing except point out that the Conservatives not only lack a suitable replacement for Danny Williams, they are desperate not to risk their hold on power.  What’s more, Jerome or Darin or Kathy know that they lack the leadership skills to reconcile the factions within their own party.  Otherwise they wouldn’t stand for a back-room fix.

And in the process, Newfoundlanders and Labradorians should be highly suspicious of whomever the back-rooms boys settle on to run the Conservative Party.  After all, how can the people of Newfoundland and Labrador trust them to bring people together in much larger causes than who gets to head the Tory tribe?

Politics is supposed to be adversarial and the more open the differences the easier it is for people to consider the various aspects of difficult ideas.  Consider what might have happened, for example, had the legislature done what it is supposed to do and forced the cabinet to explain and fully justify something like the Abitibi expropriation.

The job of holding government accountable is not just for the opposition. Government members have a role to play as members of the House.

Newspapers and other media also have a role to play in a healthy democracy.  Usually, the role is to question and to criticise those in power.  Yet instead of showing any enthusiasm for democracy, the Telegram editorial board is slipping into the same anti-democratic way of thinking it offered in March and April 1931.  At that time, the country supposedly needed a break from democracy and the Telegram was all in favour of it.

Simply put:  just as one could not be a democrat and support the imposition of an unelected government in 1931, one cannot support democracy and hold out the recent session of the legislature as anything other than the embarrassment that it is.
 
If, as the Telegram editorial board contends,  the most recent session of the United States Congress is a sign of moral bankruptcy and if  the House of Assembly is a repository of nobility and virtue by comparison, then let us all hope the province is very soon beset by every form of political debauchery the human mind can imagine.

There is, after all, something much more horrible than democracy.

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Of Death Eaters and Horcruxes

From deep inside the Conservative bunker this past couple of weeks have come one consistent set of stories.

Someone doesn’t want to have a leadership contest.  Whether it is the pressures of time on the party or fear of opening up internal divisions that just won’t heal, Conservative back-room boys have been trying to engineer a coronation.

Until Wednesday, those were just stories.

Then events started to unfold.

A couple of weeks ago, Darin King said he would take the time over Christmas to discuss his political future with family and friends.  Christmas must have come early. 

"My children are not that old — my son's in grade 11, my daughter's in grade 7 — my wife is a full time professional and I'm sure people would appreciate, its very taxing on the family, just time alone that you're away from home," said King.

"To consider taking on another challenge such as this at this point and time for me, it was our conclusion, that it's not in the best interest for us collectively as a family." [via CBC]

Reporters heard about King’s media scrum from a strange source:  Jerome Kennedy.  After announcing he was bowing out of the race because he had two teenage children, Kennedy told reporters that King would be along later with an announcement of his won.

And to confirm that the fix was in, both endorsed Kathy Dunderdale as the leader of the province’s Conservatives.  By default, she gets to remain as Premier.

Now a young family or other unspecified family pressures are usually a genuine explanation of why someone leaves cabinet or even leaves politics altogether. But these aren’t young families.  Both men have teenage children and they got into politics when their children were much younger – that’s the time when a young and needy family would be the reason for someone to stay out of politics.

Wednesday’s announcement by Kennedy and King sounds like  someone who quits a job to spend more time with the kids and then goes after another job that would have him spend less time with the family.  As a story, it just doesn’t hang together.

The stories about a back-room deal only grew stronger as time went by.  If the latest whisperings are true, the back-room manoeuvres involved none other than Danny Williams Hisself.  Williams was the only one who could contain the ambitions of so many for so long.  And as it seems now Williams may have been the one who could convince the ambitious to bide their time a while longer.

There’s no question, though, that someone is working behind the scenes to manoeuvre everyone into a certain position. There might be a few more minor shoes to drop – maybe some staff changes in Kathy’s suite -  but Darin King and Jerome Kennedy made it clear on Wednesday that the fix is in:  it will be Premier Dunderdale leading the Conservatives into the election, whenever it comes.

How long the fix lasts, though, is another question.

Oh…

Just coincidentally, you might have noticed some changes to the government online phone directory lately.  Right at the end of the listings for the Premier’s Office is an interesting entry:



Danny Williams is still listed in the office.  He holds the position of “Premier Dunderdale”.

Makes you wonder.

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Update:  Corrected time references.

Introducing Premier Dunderdale… along with a primer on the new Premier

Jerome! won’t be running.

And he dropped the hint that Darin, King of Uncommunication is also out of the race to be Premier.

Does any Conservative want to be Premier?

Kathy Dunderdale is only reconsidering her original pledge because people are encouraging her to do so.  It’s not like she – or any other Conservatives for that matter – apparently have the requisite combination of ambition plus ideas to go after what used to be looked on as the most important political job in the province.

This sorry state speaks volumes for the utter devastation Danny Williams wreaked on the Conservative Party, let alone the political system in the province generally.

No one wants the job.

Either that or there is a move afoot within Tory circles to engineer an outcome without running the risk of a divisive leadership campaign.  Even that doesn’t say very much for the current state of the Conservative Party or its pool of  - ersatz? -  leaders.

Undoubtedly, there’ll be more to follow.  in the meantime, amuse yourselves with these oldies but goodies:

A Kathy Dunderdale Primer

A sample of posts on Kathy Dunderdale from the Sir Robert Bond Papers:

• “Patronage and the Public Tender Act”
• “Delusions”
• “Introducing Premier Kathy Dunderdale”
• “TARFU”
• “Calamity Kath Dunderdale:  the Miracle Max Ploy”
• “Calamity Kathy’s Story Doesn’t Add Up”
• “Public too stupid to understand”
• “There’s crap.  There’s bullshit….”
• “Five years of secret talks…”
• “Physician heal thyself:  Dunderdale version”

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Dunderdale flip flops on future

She’s not running.

She’s running.

She’s not running.

And 24 hours after the last version of the story, Kathy Dunderdale is a model of decisiveness as she confirms she is now thinking about running to replace Danny Williams as Tory leader on a permanent basis.

She’s currently a caretaker leader and premier, as she previous told reporters she had “committed” to the people of Newfoundland and Labrador.

But give it a few days and an apparent tizzy inside her party and things are starting to look differently.  Here’s how CBC described it:

"I opened the door a crack on it last week only because I've been under so much pressure to do so from within the caucus and from across the province generally," Dunderdale said at Government House, where she watched the swearing-in ceremony for David Brazil, who won the Conception Bay East-Bell Island byelection on Dec. 2.

"It's been quite overwhelming and it's very nice. But, I got to tell you, I still haven't had a lot of time to think about it but nothing has changed at this point in time."

 

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Williams’ abrupt departure “shocking”: Dunderdale

From the Friday Telegram;

“The premier leaving was shocking to me,” said [Premier Kathy] Dunderdale. “My first thought was how are we going to do as a government, as a caucus.” [Telegram editorial insertion removed from quote]

That pretty much says it like it is:  Williams’s departure was unexpected.

In her former role as Williams’ deputy premier, Dunderdale ought to have been intimately aware of any major  developments such as Williams’ departure. She likely wouldn’t have been alone. 

And given that Williams had talked on several occasions about when he might leave politics, the party should have been prepared.

Apparently, they weren’t and the result is that the party is scrambling.

You can tell that the party leadership is confused and scrambling by two factors:

First, there are no declared contenders, let alone leading ones.  The one heir apparent – Jerome Kennedy – is reportedly dropping out and may well leave politics altogether. Other than that, no names have bobbed to the surface two weeks after Danny Williams left office and three weeks after he announced his departure.

Second,  the party hasn’t announced a process by which the party will select a new leader.

What’s been happening for the past week is a great deal of speculation about all sorts of prospective candidates, but none it involves serious contenders.

So empty is the field of people even taking a gawk that news media have reported that Kathy Dunderdale is not running, running and then not running again for the leadership all within a 24 hour period. 

CBC ran a story on Thursday that featured Dunderdale saying she would not be running. The Telegram story linked above put it this way: “But Dunderdale said she may rethink that decision because of the support she’s getting to stay on.”  The title of the story is “Dunderdale may reconsider running for premier full-time,”  as if she was working part-time now.  A day later, VOCM ran this story:

Dunderdale still not considering running for leadership 

The Premier says she's not reconsidering a bid at the leadership of the Progressive-Conservative Party, despite her success in the last two weeks in ending some long-standing disputes. Kathy Dunderdale says she's focused on governance, not a leadership race.
Dunderdale says it hasn't been part of her consideration in terms of anything she's done in the last two weeks. She says she hasn't thought about it or changed her mind, but she says it's a business where you can never say never.

While Dunderdale is obviously not interested in taking the Premier’s job beyond the caretaker role she’s already accepted, take a look at the rest of her comment to the Telly:

There’s a tremendous amount of pressure on me to reconsider…

NTV’s Michael Connors reported on Friday that there is apparently concern in the Conservative caucus that they not have a divisive leadership along the lines of the Liberal one in 2001.  That comment has been floating around the legislature for the past few days.

Taken together with the absence of any declared candidates, Connors’ report suggests that some party insiders may be trying to engineer someone into the job without a leadership race at all. Bear in mind that the party hasn’t decided on a process – convention or telephone voting – let alone even opened nominations yet.

It’s not like time is on their side what with by-election (s), budgets and then a fixed date for the next general election.

Seems that’s another Christmas present Danny Williams left to the provincial Conservatives right alongside the current leadership scramble and the Muskrat Falls bomb.

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Jerome!’s out – Connie Leadership 2011

CBC has confirmed the rumours swirling around for a couple of days.  Jerome! Kennedy – presumptive front-runner to replace Danny Williams – won’t be running for the job.

CBC is also reporting that he’ll announce his intentions publicly next week. Don’t be surprised if Jerome! also indicates he won’t be seeking re-election next fall.  Williams got Kennedy into politics and Kennedy has enjoyed his leading role in cabinet because of his close personal relations to Williams.

Interestingly, Jerome! was one of the two cabinet ministers who hung around with Danny after Danny told cabinet he was quitting.  The other was Tom Marshall.

Marshall is also reportedly considering a run for the job.  As CBC notes, no one is officially in the race. The closest anyone has come is education minister Darin King. Some have suggested Kathy Dunderdale should stay on.

So far no one has asked Joan Burke if she’s interested in the job.  She’s been reputed to have a team in place and some cash in the bank. 

If the Conservatives settle on either Dunderdale or Marshall, the party would be appointing a caretaker who might stay only long enough to see the party through the next election.

Since 1949, incumbent political parties in Newfoundland and Labrador have had no shortage of potential rivals for the top job from the moment it became vacant. This is the first time in 61 years that a party has had apparent difficulty attracting candidates.

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Connie Leadership 2011–Mid-December Night’s Ruminations

1.  Rick Hillier:  The number of people still pushing this is getting pretty funny.  Hillier already gave a pretty clear “no” in two different CBC interviews before Don Martin got him at CTV.  Aside from being somewhat coy and flirting a bit, Hillier didn’t give any sign that he is seriously considering it and – here’s the kicker – there’s no sign anyone is organizing on his behalf.

2.  Be careful what you wish for:   Rick Hillier is the potential political nuke capable of vapourising everything around him. If he really wanted to be premier of Newfoundland and Labrador, he’d actually be better off running for another party and starting with a completely clean slate.  If he did want to run, Hillier would be better off starting his own party so he could pick and chose his candidates and build a team entirely of his own choosing. 

Would he really want Danny Williams’ cast-offs?

3.  Saviour Syndrome:  Some people still have their heads firmly rooted in the idea of a saviour so it isn’t surprising that they are casting around for someone to take away their considerable anxiety.  Rick fits that bill and that’s the only bill he seems to fit.

Anxiety. 

Nervousness.

More than a few provincial Conservatives are likely suffering a bit of extra flatulence this holiday season as they think of facing the future without their magic political bullet long gone.

4.  Fabian Manning:  The senator is reportedly making calls checking on his support among his former colleagues.  He still seems like a really long shot.

5.  Steve Kent:  The supremely shitty public reaction the Draft Steve idea got may well have told him that, unlike Frank Moores, now is definitely not the time.

6.  A deal to avoid a fight:  Privately some people are talking about the prospect of an orchestrated coronation in order to avoid a bloodbath on the convention floor.  Interesting idea but the sort of negotiation that would have to go on to deliver a coronation still leave the chances of a bloodbath – or just a lot of bad blood – even if there is no sign of it in public without luminol and an ALS.

7.  Jerome!:  Considered the heir-apparent to Danny’s throne, Jerome Kennedy seems to be the de facto front-runner even without declaring.  Two things might be interesting to chat about over the holidays:  First, think what would it mean if Jerome! actually did apologise publicly to the doctor he used as a public political punching bag?  Hint:  it is exactly the kind of statesman-like act that people expect of a Premier worthy of the name.  

Second, if not Jerome!, then who? 

8.  Inception:  Pretend for a moment you are a Conservative back-room boy.  Take out your calendar.  Fit in a leadership convention, a provincial budget, a federal election, and up to three by-elections between now and June.  Minimise the overlap. 

Now take out your token and see if it spins irregularly on the table.

 

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Who isn’t running in 2011?

While lots of things can change between now and next October, here are the current members of the House of Assembly who your humble e-scribbler thinks will take the pension (if they qualify) and head for the door before the next election:

• Roland Butler
• Kathy Dunderdale
• Roger Fitzgerald
• Tom Hedderson
• John Hickey
• Clyde Jackman
• Tom Marshall
• Sheila Osborne
• Patty Pottle
• Bob Ridgley

There are a few more who have enough service to be pensionable and who have no real promise of better days ahead.  For now, though, there’s the list to work with.

Think of it this way.  When Danny took off, the Tories went from having five seats they could focus their attacks on to having about 15 seats where they could face a bit of fight to hang onto the seat.  Now that doesn’t mean all the seats likely to be vacated above are likely to change hands.  The 15 or so include seats where the Conservative incumbent is likely to seek re-election but where there is a certain level of local discontent.

Of the crew listed above, John Hickey has had his five best years to fatten up the pension and there’d be no real reason for him stick around anyway.  Future premiers might be less inclined to keep him in cabinet.  Doesn’t matter, though, since Hickey’s apparently got his sights on going federal in the next federal election.
Just think about that for a second.  If the federal election comes in the spring, we could be seeing a provincial Conservative leadership racket and all the fund-raising that entails with a federal election and all the fund-raising that entails.

Then pull John Hickey and Tom Osborne off to run as federals and you potentially have a couple of seats coming up for grabs.  Depending on the timing of the leadership and the general election, Danny’s electoral reform legacy could force the Conservatives into having by-elections at a very inconvenient time both for cash and for volunteers.

And before anyone chimes in that the two could just Beaton up and try to Tulk their seats back, there is simply the question of why would they.  Both Hickey and Osborne are pensionable. At least in Osborne’s case, there are some other members of the clan with political ambitions ready to step into the seat.

But in Hickey’s case?

The seat could be up for grabs before the next provincial election.

More than a few provincial Conservatives are hoping Jack Layton doesn’t pick an inconvenient time to keep his promise to vote against the federal Conservatives on a confidence motion.

Anyway you look at it, 2011 is going to be a fascinating year in local politics.

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Connie Leadership 2011

Here’s your scorecard for the upcoming rumble.

This should also help you cut through the noise likely to come from all sorts of sources.

A.  Who will run…

• Joan Burke – According to some accounts her crew started working the phones the Danny Danny announced. She’s also reputed to have had a war chest ready to go for a couple of years.
• Jerome Kennedy – The perceived front-runner;  officially playing coy and a wee bit reluctant but that’s just for show.  Rumour on the Hill is that he’s got cash in the bank and a bunch of loyalists salted away in short-term jobs all through the Confed Building.  Jerome!’s been working on his image a bit here and there, suggesting he’s got someone coaching him. 
• Darin King – Hoping to come up the middle between two polarising candidates with gigantic negatives.  Bland might work.

B.  Who is likely to run…

• Kevin O’Brien – Premier Fairity  - below - may be the only person who thinks he should run. Likely wants to take the shot he gave up in 2000 to let Danny take the job.
• Steve Kent  - Officially, he won’t comment until after Christmas.  Expect him to give it a run to raise his profile. Someone registered draftstevekent.ca on November 29 when Danny’s political corpse wasn’t even chilly, let alone cold.

C.  Who might run…

• Shawn Skinner – Principal Skinner is one of those guys who might take it in his head to run but who is more likely to back someone like Kennedy.  His appointment to Natural Resources suggests he’ll be responsible for smacking the Muskrat Falls thing every now and then to make it seem like the Norwegian Blue is just kipping.
• Tom Osborne – the member that works is rumoured to be eyeing a job as the federal member that works.  His name still comes up and can’t be completely discounted.

D.  Who you can count out…

• Kathy Dunderdale – Headed for retirement anyway.  She got beatoned as a thank you on her way out the door for her loyal, if uninspiring, service to the Old Man.
• Tom Marshall – Ditto on the retirement thingy.  He hedged his bets for appearances sake during a recent scrum. 
• Tim Powers – A candidate in the imagination of people in Ottawa.  If, by some bizarre turn of events Powers actually runs, he’ll likely drag up the arse end of the pack slightly ahead of Kent and O‘Brien.
• Doug Moores
• Rick Hillier – the first name that cropped up  people anxious to have the racket start.  He’s got too much else on the go.  And besides, why would he give up a national profile for that gig?
• Senator Beth Marshall – Set for life and with a steady paycheque until she turns 75.  Would you give that up?
• Senator Fabian Manning – Seen in the Avalon Mall on Monday afternoon doing some shopping but as with Beth, why would any sane person give up the sinecure?

E.  Sentimental Favourite

Right in!  Right on!  Rideout!

 

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*   Edited for typos and to clarify some sentences.

 

Catch-Update:  The mighty Ceeb cornered Darin King and got him on the record giving the standard line candidates use before they are ready to it over announce. Someone also asked Clyde Jackman and while Jackman said he’s going to take the holidays to mull over a leadership run, expect him to announce he is leaving politics.

Premier Fairity

He thought about it in 2000 but never launched a campaign after Danny decided to go for it.

Kevin O’Brien’s clearly been searching for a human-looking hair colour lately and maybe he’s been hunting in order to take a run for the Premier’s Office.

He might be a long-shot, but the guy who has trouble with geography at least knows what he’s fighting for:  fairity.

Kevin O’Brien:  a potential Conservative leadership candidate.

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