The Persistence of False Information: free electricity version #nlpoli

An exchange on Twitter reminded your humble e-scribbler on Wednesday evening of the power of false information to persist despite either being disproven or, in this case, being an obvious nonsense.

Not surprisingly, the discussion was about Nalcor, Emera,  the Maritime Link and a block of electricity that Nalcor gets under the Muskrat Falls deal.  There is a lot of false information about these subjects that just won’t die.  Let’s just deal with the free block of electricity.

No obligation to take electricity: Emera CEO #nlpoli

From the Chronicle Herald:

Emera CEO Chris Huskilson says there are several options available to Nova Scotians to meet future energy needs, but he insists the arrangement with Newfoundland and Labrador represents the best opportunity.

“It is not something (Nova Scotians) must do because Emera is bringing it forward, it is something they can consider and decide,” Huskilson said in an interview Tuesday.

“We have not signed anything that would obligate Nova Scotia customers to take this energy. All we’ve done was sign something that creates that opportunity.”

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Labrador Mining and Muskrat Falls #nlpoli

Premier Kathy Dunderdale is bothered enough by his detailed critical analysis of Muskrat Falls that she has been known to single him out in fundraising speeches in the province and in the House of Assembly.

Journalists like CBC’s David Cochrane are tweeting requests for the guy to get in touch.

Yet so far Nalcor hasn’t challenged any of his commentaries at the Public Utilities Board or previously here at SRBP.

Today, they have another reason to pull at their hair.

Emera waiting on Nalcor for numbers #nlpoli

Wonder no more, dear friends.

Stop  scratching your chin.

Now we know why Nalcor and Emera have not signed a deal now some four or five months after saying they were so close to finishing their negotiations that they didn’t need to set a new deadline.

Credit rater gives Emera “negative” outlook #nlpoli

The Chronicle Herald reported Tuesday that credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s had changed its rating for Emera from “stable’ to “negative”.

The problem is the capital requirement in order to meet the Nova Scotia government’s green targets.  CH quoted Standard & Poor’s analyst Nicole Martin:

Meeting that renewables goal will require a “meaningful capital expenditure program,” according to Martin. The upshot: Nova Scotia Power’s ability to cover a growing debt load will depend upon the timing and size of rate increases granted by the Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board, which sets power rates in the province.

That heightens what Martin calls “regulatory risk due to the potential for rate shock.” Last November, the board granted Nova Scotia Power an average rate increase of approximately 5.1 per cent for all customers effective Jan. 1.

The rating means the company will have to pay more in order to raise the cash for all those transmission lines it would have to build as part of any deal with Nalcor for Muskrat Falls.

Some observations:

• Odds are this is why Emera and Nalcor haven’t signed a deal for Muskrat Falls yet.
• This also explains why the companies gave themselves an indefinite deadline for finishing talks even though they were supposedly so close to getting one done two months ago.
• If Emera drops out, expect the chances of a federal loan guarantee to head to zero. 
• The Tories in Newfoundland and Labrador might still push ahead with the project – they are just that wacky – but it would be a much more convenient excuse to cut their political losses.
• Don’t forget that Emera will have to run its part of the Muskrat deal through their utilities regulator.  If rate increases are stressing Emera already, watch out when the Muskrat risk hits.

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Emera buys NL line service company #nlpoli

Via CNW:

“HALIFAX, Dec. 5, 2011 /CNW/ - Emera Utility Services Inc. (EUS), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Emera Inc. (TSX: EMA.TO -News), today announced the acquisition of the utility line and communications construction, installation and maintenance business of Green's Service Station Ltd. (Green's), a power and communications line construction and maintenance company based in Goobies, NL. The purchase of Green's aligns with EUS' growth strategy and strengthens its competitive position within Atlantic Canada and beyond.

With more than 30 years' experience, Green's is a recognized leader in the field, with a reputation for quality, safety and professionalism. "Green's has a highly-regarded reputation for providing premium service to its customers. This purchase will allow EUS to take our services in the area to the next level, and will expand our capabilities and opportunities throughout the region," said Dan Muldoon, President and COO of EUS. "We see tremendous opportunity in Newfoundland and Labrador and Green's will play a pivotal role in our ability to compete for business and grow in this province."

As part of the transaction, approximately 80 full and part-time employees from Green's, including the founder and former President, Vernon Smith, will join the EUS team. As the Managing Director, Smith will continue to play a significant role in NL operations.

"Building a business with such a great team has been truly a rewarding experience and the decision to sell was thoughtfully considered," said Smith. "However, after getting to know Dan and the EUS team, I am confident that my employees and I are joining a great organization that offers plenty of growth and opportunity for everyone."

Emera Inc. is not disclosing the purchase price for this acquisition, other than to note that it is not material to its business.

About Emera Utility Services:

Emera Utility Services, Inc. (EUS) is Atlantic Canada's largest Utility Services Contractor. Based in Halifax, Nova Scotia, it has additional facilities in Dartmouth, Truro, Sydney, Saint John, Moncton, Fredericton and Charlottetown.

EUS is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Emera Inc. (EMA-TSX). Emera Inc. is a growing energy and services company with $6.8 billion in assets and revenues of $1.6 billion. The company invests in electricity generation, transmission and distribution as well as gas transmission and utility energy services. Emera's strategy is focused on the transformation of the electricity industry to cleaner generation and the delivery of that clean energy to market. Emera operates throughout northeastern North America, in three Caribbean countries and in California. More than 80% of the company's earnings come from regulated investments. To learn more about Emera, visit their website.”

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Muskrat Falls Friday Trash Dump #nlpoli

The provincial government waited until late Friday afternoon to issue a bulletin that Emera had registered the Nova Scotia interconnection with the environment department for review.

That’s weird because Friday is usually when you release news you want to bury.  Friday is normally a crap news day since people don’t pay attention to the Friday nights news. 

If you can’t kill the story,  you can at least be assured that after the weekend, the story will be significantly weaker than if it hit on Monday and had a whole week to build steam in the glare of cameras and media inquiry.

So if you were going to close a couple of fish plants, you’d do it on Friday. Premier Kathy Dunderdale could still look severely stressed in the media clips – we are talking edge of a stroke stress here – but still the story would likely have less fuss than if it had been released on its own on Monday, 8:00 AM.

But the electricity line to Nova Scotia – a supposedly huge part of the Muskrat Falls development  - is not the news you’d like to bury. 

Well, at least you wouldn’t think so, especially since by the time it hit the wires, the fish plant story was already owning the front end of the news cycle.

So if releasing it on Friday afternoon is odd, then the actual wording of the announcement is odder still:

Maritime Transmission Link (Reg. 1618)
Proponent: ENL Maritime Link Inc.

The proponent, ENL Maritime Link Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Emera Newfoundland and Labrador Holdings Inc., is proposing to design, develop and operate the Maritime Link Transmission Project between the Island of Newfoundland and Cape Breton, Nova Scotia. The transmission link is a 500 MW, +/-200 to 250 kV high voltage transmission system that includes the following elements and associated infrastructure: transmission corridors, subsea cables, shore grounding facilities, two converter stations and adjoining substations, two transition compounds and other potential infrastructure as required. The three main geographical components of the project are:

1. Newfoundland component - In southwestern Newfoundland, a new transmission line between Cape Ray and Bottom Brook along an existing transmission corridor and Bottom Brook to Granite Canal in a combination of existing and new corridors.
2. Cabot Strait component – Crossing the Cabot Strait, two subsea cables spanning approximately 180 kilometres from Point Aconi (or Lingan), Nova Scotia to Cape Ray, Newfoundland (exact location to be determined).
3. Nova Scotia component - In Cape Breton, Nova Scotia, a new transmission line (approximately 50 kilometres in length) parallel to the existing transmission corridor centerline between Point Aconi (or Lingan) and Woodbine.

Project construction is scheduled to begin in 2014 and first power planned for delivery in late 2016 or early 2017.

The undertaking was registered on December 1, 2011; the deadline for public comments is January 6, 2012; and the minister’s decision is due by January 14, 2012.

Notice right off the bat:

• No Nalcor.  The thing is registered by a wholly-owned subsidiary of Emera. 
• No Muskrat Falls.  No Lower Churchill at all, in fact.
• No room.  There is a single 500 megawatt line.  That won’t much – if any – capacity for exporting power beyond Nova Scotia.
• Construction isn’t tied to Muskrat at all.
• The construction dates anticipate first power received in 2016.  That doesn’t match up with likely Muskrat timelines given the continued delays in that project.

Go to the registration document and a few more curious things show up.

Like, for example, the Maritime line on the island of Newfoundland isn’t going to run out towards Clarenville as the Nalcor documents suggested.

It’s going to start at Granite Canal, an existing Nalcor generating site on the south-western part of the island.  It’s not far from the big hydro plant at Bay d’Espoir. And it’s close enough to the former Abitibi generating facilities that Nalcor got as a bonus courtesy of the 2008 expropriation.

Here’s a section of one of the maps provided in the registration documents:

And remember that curious absence of a reference to the Lower Churchill in the notice?  Well, there are a few mentions of the Lower Churchill in the registration documents.  One of them notes that the Maritime link will allow surplus LC power to flow to Nova Scotia but…

The Maritime Link will have no direct connection to the Labrador-Island Transmission Link, which is a project being developed by Nalcor Energy, as the proponent, along with the Lower Churchill Hydroelectric Generation Project. The Maritime Link has a separate utility due to the fact the Project will  serve as a complete and independent connection between Nova Scotia and the existing electrical system. Project Registration on the Island of Newfoundland, will operate independent of the Labrador-Island Transmission Link, and is the only transmission facility which will connect the two provincial grids. [Emphasis added]

Yes, friends, it is separate and independent.

And that’s interesting in light of the announcement last week of industrial benefit opportunities for Nova Scotians on a project  - Muskrat Falls – in which they have no direct involvement apparently.

Anyway, the details of the Maritime link suggest that Nalcor intends to keep all the Muskrat power in the province, if it gets built.  They’ll meet their commitments to Nova Scotia using the huge amount of surplus power in the central Newfoundland hydro-electric system. 

That stuff is all bought and paid for or seized so there’s basically very little cost associated with it.  That would explain how Nalcor would plan to meet its obligation to Nova Scotia under the term sheet and any deal they sign with Emera.  The Nova Scotians can get free power because Nalcor will ship it out of stuff that is basically next-door to free.  Meanwhile, they will force people in Newfoundland and Labrador to pay for Muskrat Falls entirely.  They’ll justify their rate applications to the public utilities board on that basis.

Since the Maritime link can happen without the Lower Churchill, Emera is likely looking to lock Nalcor into a guarantee to deliver on its free power commitments regardless of what happens with Muskrat and the Lower Churchill.  That would explain the delays in negotiation.  Emera has Kathy Dunderdale over a barrel and would be foolish not to press their huge political and negotiating advantage.

Emera filed its paperwork on November 30.  The provincial environment department controlled when it accepted the documents and issued the bulletin.

Given the information the documents contain, it’s no wonder provincial officials dumped them out there with the trash on Friday. 

Now wonder that Kathy Dunderdale looked sick in her media scrum about OCI’s plan to close a couple of fish plants. Her pained and stressed expression likely had nothing to do with a few hundred jobs lost in the fishery. 

She’s got much bigger problems with the Muskrat Falls project and the mess that Danny Williams started and then left for her to clear up.

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Innu vote overwhelmingly for something

The Innu of Labrador voted overwhelmingly in favour of something on Thursday.

News media are calling it the “New Dawn” agreement and say that the vote approves the Lower Churchill development, gives Innu compensation for Churchill Falls and does a few other things.

Not the least of those other things is “pave the way” for Muskrat Falls.

Beyond that, details are sketchy.

Kathy Dunderdale, seen at left waiting to receive communion outside the House of Assembly,  took time out from her junket to Europe to issue a news release about the vote.  The release contained no details on the deal.

What exactly are we talking about here? 

A very good question, grasshopper.

In late 2008, Danny Williams announced something called the New Dawn agreements. 

You can find a news release on it, as well as a link to a document signed by the provincial government and the Innu nation.  Labradorians might find the accompanying map – the one detailing Innu land – to be a bit more interesting than anything else.

Supposedly it was the last step before a final agreement set to be finished by the spring of 2009.   That release had lots of interesting details in it, including reference to privatising Churchill Falls.

Local media didn’t report on the details very much.

Okay. 

That’s an exaggeration.

They didn’t report the details at all.

And then suddenly it wasn’t the end of negotiations.

Like poof,  the Innu had to negotiate again.

They cancelled a vote scheduled for January 31, 2009 in the face of so much opposition to the deal the Innu Nation leadership had no choice but stop things cold.
Lots of talks and rumours of discussions followed but at no point did anyone discuss – nor did anyone report – anything on what the Innu and the provincial government were talking about.

Even last November, the Innu were the most noticeable cloud raining on Danny’s “I am outta here” parade. 

From an American consular briefing note leaked earlier this year, we know that Emera balked at the first discussions about something called the Lower Churchill project.  In the end, Danny Williams gave away a whole pile of stuff in order to get them to show up for his surprise retirement announcement.

So what did the Innu get for all their hard bargaining from the guy who was that anxious to get out the door of the Premier’s Office he gave Emera 35 years of free electricity, discount electricity above and beyond that plus a share of transmission revenue in Newfoundland and Labrador no other company has, all in exchange for building a power line across the Cabot Strait?

Emera didn’t have to negotiate half as long as the Innu to get their free gifts.
And they didn’t have a legitimate claim to own the land and resources everyone wanted to develop.

And that was after Williams used the legislature to seize generating plants from other companies just because he could.

T’would be nice if someone turned up some details and told the rest of us what the Innu voted on.

Like say, is this the final deal and will it pave the way for Muskrat Falls.  Or is it - as Dunderdale’s news release says plainly -  a “non-binding agreement” that will form the basis for future talks and an Innu land claims agreement?  In other words, this vote doesn’t pave the way for anything except more talks.

This is a wee bit more important to the future of the province, after all, than the name of Danny Williams’ latest hockey team. 

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Fortis on Lower Churchill: No thanks

Fortis had a chance to join in the Lower Churchill project but passed on it because the company has a policy of [not] taking a minority interest in government projects. [edit]

According to the Telegram’s Saturday edition, Fortis chief executive Stan Marshall told shareholders that:

“One of those principles is that we will not get involved in minority situations with governments. That is an absolute rule I have observed.” 

Fortis is currently partnered in the Waneta hydro project with a pair of power companies owned by the B.C. government to build a $900-million power plant.

“You’ll note we own 51 per cent,” said Marshall. “We would not have gotten involved with less than … 51 per  cent.”

Following the  shareholder meeting, Marshall was asked why the company avoids minority stakes.

“Simply when things go wrong we’d like to be able to rectify them,” he told reporters.

“If you’re going to go in with a partner you’ve got to know that partner very, very well, have a lot of commonality.

“Governments … their agenda can be very, very  different than a private enterprise.”

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US diplomatic cable reveals Emera “trepidation” about talks with Williams on Lower Churchill

A cable from the American consulate in Halifax relays concerns that Emera had about negotiations with Danny Williams on the Lower Churchill.

Dated 15 January 2010, the cable is a summary of a meeting between the American consul general and James Spurr, a senior executive with the Nova Scotia-based company. The cable is available from Wikileaks.

Emera and the Lower Churchill: "Are we being used here?"

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¶4. (SBU) Closer to home Spurr talked about another possible venture for Emera: transmitting power from the proposed Lower Churchill River project in Labrador to New England. Nova Scotia and Newfoundland-Labrador (N-L) have an MOU to explore this option which would require the construction of sub-sea and overland power lines to transmit the power. Money issues aside, there would be technological challenges to overcome in this scenario. However, Spurr emphasized that with Emera's experience in dealing with transmission systems, natural gas pipelines and its knowledge of regulatory processes, it would not be an impossible feat. The unknown factor, as Spurr explained, is N-L Premier Danny Williams. Spurr explained that N-L had been the victim of bad resource deals in the past which have left Williams very cautious if not suspicious in his business negotiations. Given that legacy, Spurr remarked that he and his senior colleagues are equally cautious in dealing with the premier, with knowledge it makes more financial sense for N-L to do a deal with Quebec than with them. In fact, Spurr indicated he wouldn't be surprised if William ended up doing just that, and leaving Spurr and colleagues to speculate that Williams might be using them to exert more pressure on Quebec to offer a better deal for N-L.

That would have been a pretty savvy guess for Emera, given that in September 2009 Kathy Dunderdale revealed publicly that she and Williams had tried unsuccessfully for five years to lure Hydro-Quebec into taking an ownership stake in the Lower Churchill.

Conventional news media in Newfoundland and Labrador have never reported Dunderdale’s comments or made any other references to talks with Quebec despite the audio of Dunderdale’s comments being readily available.

In 2010, as part of his political exit strategy, Danny Williams signed a term sheet with Emera that could lead to development of a dam at Muskrat Falls. Under the deal, Emera will receive 35 terawatt years of electricity from Muskrat Falls in exchange for the cost of building a transmission line from Newfoundland to Cape Breton. In a conference call with reporters at time the tentative deal was announced, Emera executives’ comments suggested they had balked at earlier versions of the deal in part because the cost of power from Muskrat Falls was too high.

The current proposal is based entirely on the sale of power within Newfoundland and Labrador at full cost plus a guaranteed rate of return for the provincial government energy company. Premier Kathy Dunderdale acknowledged in the House of Assembly earlier this year that Muskrat Falls power will be too expensive to sell outside the province except at discount rates.

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Muskrat Falls power may never go to New England: Nalcor

From Nalcor vice president Derrick Sturge:

"Whether all of the energy ever flows to the New England market - who knows? A significant portion of that (40 per cent) may never hit New England. It may end up in Prince Edward Island or New Brunswick. But the key is that there is the option to flow to the (New England) market."

And then he said the thing is going up with or without a federal loan guarantee.

Newfoundlanders should keep an eye on their wallets with this guy Sturge and his buddies around.

They have no markets for the power outside the province.

That’s why Sturge uses all the conditional language like “may”.  It may go there;  then again, it may not.

Count on the “not’ given that the front end of the story makes it plain that Nalcor and Emera couldn’t actually settle on a price.  Muskrat Falls power was just too expensive.

So in exchange for Emera partnering on a line to Nova Scotia they’ll get free power for 35 years.

Talk about the price is right.

Free is always the right price, except if you are Nalcor customers in this province.  For you guys, Nalcor will be jacking up Newfoundland electricity rates and adding another five billion or so to the public debt.

And for what?

Well, since Nalcor’s own figures show there is no demand on the island that couldn’t be met other ways besides Muskrat, the answer to that question remains as much a mystery as why Kathy Dunderdale threw Shawn Skinner under a political bus last week with the Matthews’ debacle.

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Muskrat Falls: Internal contradictions

Nalcor headman Ed Martin is supposed to be selling the Muskrat falls plan for the Conservatives to help their re-election bid.

He is talking up the economic wonderments of a power line from the island of Newfoundland into Nova Scotia.

One of the things such a line makes feasible, Martin claims, is a thermal plant to turn natural gas into electricity.  Natural gas is currently so cheap that American generators are selling electricity from their gas plants in the United States to New Brunswick.

But, as the Telegram reports,

Martin said converting natural gas to electricity would also require a small gas turbine plant and a lot of study.

“Our focus right now, no question, is the Lower Churchill … and that’s going to be a five- to six-year construction project.

“We’d have to see if gas was there, we’d have to run the economics, it would be sometime after that. But, once again, five or six years is not that long a time.”

“There” is onshore at Parsons Pond.  But there is also gas offshore Newfoundland and Labrador so it is not like there is a shortage of available gas nor is the idea of using the gas to fire a generator such a novel idea.

However, note that Martin says that gas generation is something to be studied down the road a ways, once the Lower Churchill is done. “We’d have to run the economics, it would be sometime after” Muskrat is up and running.

Gas-to-electricity generation is not green but it is a lot less environmentally damaging than burning diesel at a plant like the now infamous one at Holyrood.  Don’t forget that the main use for the power at Muskrat Falls is to replace the evil generators at Holyrood.

So with all that firmly in front of your eyes, note that Kathy Dunderdale keeps insisting that all the alternatives to Muskrat falls have already been studied and that the Falls option is the cheapest. As she said on the last day of a very short session of the legislature:

“Mr. Speaker, they are going to have to pay a lot less for Muskrat Falls power than for any other alternative that is available to the people in Newfoundland and Labrador, Mr. Speaker…”

“We have considered all of the options available to us…”

So if Ed Martin hasn’t already studied the cost of generating electricity from natural gas – by his own admission, no less – then how can Kathy Dunderdale say that Ed Martin has already studied replacing Holyrood with gas generation and found that such a plan would cost more than $6.5 billion?

Well, she can’t. 

Not unless Ed Martin is fibbing.

And if Ed isn’t fibbing then that means that Kathy Dunderdale is fibbing or doesn’t understand her briefings.

Now there’s a shocker.

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Dunderdale blunders on term sheet power sale provisions

Kathy Dunderdale obviously needs a briefing on her old boss’ retirement plan.
In the House of Assembly on Tuesday, Dunderdale said:

Mr. Speaker, while it is true that Emera will own the Maritime Link for thirty-five years, they will only have the ability to wheel one terawatt of power across that link.   Mr. Speaker, all rights above the one terawatt lie with Nalcor.

Unfortunately, for Dunderdale that isn’t what the term sheet says. Under Term 7 (d), Emera can buy additional power for sale in Nova Scotia, and under 7(e), Emera can step in between Nalcor and a power sale to a third party:

The company can buy that additional power and run it down the line or build new lines to carry it either with Nalcor as a partner or on its own.

If that weren’t good enough for you, there’s nothing in the term sheet that says Emera cannot buy power in addition to the Nova Scotia Block for its customers in the United States or anywhere else in the Maritimes. After all, Nalcor would be foolish to turn down the prospect of selling power to help pay off its massive debt burden, should it wind up up building Muskrat Falls along the lines in the term sheet.

So if Dunderdale can get such an obvious point completely wrong, it makes you wonder what else she doesn’t understand about this proposal.

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Shawn through the Looking Glass

Shawn Skinner is the latest Conservative cabinet minister to find himself swept through into the looking glass world of the province’s natural resources ministry.

This is the bizarro world, you may recall, where the complete cock-up by the provincial government – expropriating an environmental mess – turned magically into a world where AbitibiBowater appeared to abandon its responsibilities and the provincial government rode in to save the day.

There is the truth.

And then there is a natural resources news release and never the twain shall meet, so it seems.

Or to paraphrase a famous old, former politician:  nothing could be further from the truth.

On Tuesday, the newly minted minister issued a news release to tell the people of the province that a draft bill in front of the legislature is about denying compensation to AbitibiBowater for the expropriation in 2008.

The action we are taking through these amendments will ensure that Abitibi-Consolidated will receive no compensation from the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador.

And so in this looking glass world, Skinner tells us, a thing is not what it is;  it is what it ain’t.

Abitibi is already compensated to the tune of  $130 million federal tax dollars for the clusterfrack called the expropriation.  They do not need any further compensation, since they already have it.  Thus, in Skinner’s construction, the bill is not about what it is, but what it is most definitely not about.

Don’t worry if your head is spinning at this point.  Skinner’s is too.

His noggin must be twirling since Skinner then describes Fortis, Enel and a raft of other companies whose property was expressly seized and whose legal rights were brutally extinguished to have been mere “bystanders” to the whole affair. 

Once again, there is the truth of what the bill expresses says  - take Schedule E as the bit we are talking about - and there is what Skinner says. Those two things can only exist in the world inhabited by the average Dannystanni cabinet minister.  Here is Schedule E:

1.  The "Acknowledgement and Consent Agreement (Water Use Authorization)" dated 24 April 1997 between the Star Lake Hydro Partnership, the Mutual Life Assurance Company of Canada ; and the Crown, and all amendments including the Supplementary Acknowledgement - Crown Water Use Authorization dated 9 May 2001 and assignments of them.

2.  The "Acknowledgement and Consent Agreement (Crown Water Power Licence)" dated 24 April 1997 between the Star Lake Hydro Partnership, the Mutual Life Assurance Company of Canada ; and the Crown, and all amendments including the Supplementary Acknowledgement - Crown Water Power License dated 9 May 2001 and assignments of it.

3.  The "Hydro Consent and Acknowledgement Agreement" dated 31 July 2002 between the Exploits River Hydro Partnership, Clarica Life Insurance Company, and Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro and assignments of it.

4.  The "Agreement for the Purchase and Sale of Power and Energy" dated 18 September 2001 between Abitibi-Consolidated Inc. and Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro, and all amendments, including the Assignment dated 31 July 2002 between Exploits River Hydro Partnership, Abitibi-Consolidated Inc. and Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro, and assignments of them.

5.  The "Restated Agreement for Non-Utility Generated Power and Energy" dated 24 April 1997 between Abitibi-Price Inc. and Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro, and all amendments, including the Assignment dated 24 April 1997 between the Star Lake Hydro Partnership, Abitibi-Price Inc. and Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro, and assignments of them.

6.  The "Acknowledgement and Consent Agreement" dated 25 April 1997 between the Star Lake Hydro Partnership, the Mutual Life Assurance Company of Canada ; and Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro, and all amendments and assignments of it.

7.  The "Acknowledgement - Power Purchase Agreement" dated 24 April 1997 between the Mutual Life Assurance Company of Canada, in its own right and as agents for the Canada Life Assurance Company, the Maritime Life Assurance Company, Sun Life Assurance Company of Canada, the Standard Life Assurance Company and Industrial-Alliance Life Insurance Company, the Star Lake Hydro Partnership; and Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro, and all amendments and assignments of it.

So let us have no more of this nonsense, shall we?

Instead, let us talk of what this bill is.

It is a step toward settling the outstanding claims for companies who have a legitimate right to compensation for the brutal and unnecessary seizure of their property and for the cancellation of their rights gained by entering into good faith agreements with the provincial government and its Crown corporation Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro.

Fortis defaulted on a loan.  The provincial government has now assumed the payment of that bill.  Sunlife, Manulife and the others can likely produce comparable evidence of injury.

Neither politicians nor the media have bothered to talk about these companies.  The politicians did not speak of them because it was uncomfortable to talk about the facts of the expropriation. You can tell how uncomfortable it is since politicians never seem to want to talk about the facts of the matter. This release is confirmation of that, if nothing else.

As for the media, it remains a mystery as to what they report and what they don’t but that is another story entirely.

And let us not forget that the bondholders who suffered demonstrable financial loss as a result of the brutal and unnecessary seizure are also the sorts of people one would like to invest in a new hydro-electric project in the province.  They are much like the people who invested in another hydro-electric project oh so many years ago and who had to go to court to protect their investment from government’s ill-considered legal measures.

This bill is about calming them down as well, a point that is likely too close to what is really going on for any provincial cabinet minister to admit.  It is about trying to repair the considerable damage done to the province’s reputation as a result of the brutal and entirely unnecessary seizure bill. What actually happens, what compensation the government does wind up paying for the brutal and unnecessary expropriation will be the real test of whether or not the wounds to the province’s investment climate have started to heal.

As for the unnecessary expropriation bill itself, it would have been unnecessary only if one accepts the the claims made about it at the time.

But that too is another story for another day.

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NB Tories and NL politics

Corporate Research Associates president Don Mills thinks that the Conservatives should break whatever promises and do whatever else it takes to get the province’s financial mess under control.

He thinks they can get away with it since it is early in their mandate.

“They shouldn't worry about their performance numbers or their voter support in the first year and a half of their mandate," Mills said.
"They should just make the decisions that need to be made, apologize for it, say it wasn't their fault, and just get it done.
"Two or three years later when things are looking much brighter they can take credit for taking tough action when it was needed to be taken.”

That’s interesting advice if for no other reason than it is exactly the opposite of what Mills’ favourite client did when ostensibly faced with the same situation.

Danny Williams never ever stopped worrying about his performance numbers of voter support.  When the numbers fell after Williams’ first six months in office, he abandoned the whole plan announced in the spring of 2004 to get the province’s finances under control.

And he never apologised for anything.

That’s not the only difference between the two provinces and CRA.  In New Brunswick, CRA’s latest news release on their quarterly poll included figures from the recent New Brunswick election.  Let’s just say that CRA’s polling is actually close to the election result.  In 2007,  Mills missed the provincial election here by a country mile.

As you scan the chart, get a load of the party support numbers on which Mills is offering his advice.  Conservative support is at 42% of respondents. 31% of respondent’s were undecided.  The Liberals and the New Democrats together didn’t add up to the UND number but that doesn’t matter.  If you look at CRA’s numbers over time in New Brunswick and you can see that it doesn’t take much to piss people off and keep them pissed off.

Ask Shawn Graham.

Just to be sure, look at CRA’s satisfaction numbers.  The New Brunswick  Conservatives are exactly where Shawn Grahams’ Liberals were before the election.  The only difference is that 33% of the population think it’s too soon to judge the Conservatives’ performance.

With Graham, they were somewhat dissatisfied.  CRA seems to misreport the question they asked on that one, incidentally.  Might be that the 33% of respondents who aren’t ready to give the Conservatives either a thumbs up or thumbs down just yet are the same crew who turned away from Graham over ideas like selling the provincial power company to Hydro-Quebec.

That could make things interesting if the Conservatives took Mills’ advice.

For a second, let’s just suppose they took Mills’ advice and voters didn’t plan a neck-tie party for the provincial government.  Frankly, if they got things under control, voters would be more likely to reward them even if it meant nice cheap electricity came from Quebec.  Mills’ advice is reasonable enough even if it isn’t based for a fraction of a second on his polling.

Nice for the New Brunswick Conservatives.

Not so nice for their cousins across the water in the former Republic of Dannystan. If nothing else, Danny Williams helped stir up anti-Quebec sentiment among the New Brunswick anglophone Conservative voters because he needed to keep open the appearance of an option of selling his very expensive Lower Churchill power to them. When Williams said on October 29, 2009 that he feared being stranded, what he apparently meant was that the last potential markets for his super-expensive juice would be gone.

It worked.

Just remember though that Danny Williams was shit-baked, to use an accurate term for it, over the prospect that not only New Brunswick but Emera would fall under the spell of the hydro seductress with the French accent.

Things appear to have changed in the year since Williams voiced his fears.  There’s a new deal on the table and with it comes the possibility of shipping that expensive Muskrat Falls power to New Brunswickers.

But if the New Brunswick government decided to listen to Don Mills?  Well, let’s just say if they did consider a new deal to offload New Brunswick Power to Hydro-Quebec, regional politics in 2011 could get even more interesting than they are shaping up to be already.

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Lower Churchill MOU - developing

1.  CBC is reporting an announcement tomorrow on a memorandum of understanding involving Emera, NALCOR, the Government of Nova scotia and the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador to develop Muskrat falls (800 MW)

2.  Nova Scotia Premier Darrell Dexter is denying the reports.

This story is developing.  More will follow.

In the meantime, amuse yourself with:

• Williams announces political exit plan
• US and NL taxpayers might help subsidise costly big-hydro project
• Williams’ shift sends Lower Churchill back to enviro drawing board for second time in a year
• More potato, potato
• Tshaukesh leads quiet resistance to Old Man’s Dream
• What Danny actually said (with translation)
• Danny Williams and the Philosopher’s Stone:  converting principles to cash

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Lower Churchill: US and NL taxpayers might help subsidize costly big hydro project

Premier Danny Williams is promising a Lower Churchill deal before the end of the year and one way he could finance the project is by offloading the cost onto American and Canadian taxpayers.

Some American politicians are trying to redefine state environmental subsidies that currently don’t include hydro megaprojects like the Lower Churchill.  In Massachusetts, Republican gubernatorial candidate Charles Baker not only advocated for big hydro as part of the state’s energy future, he also favoured giving big hydro projects the “renewable” status that would make them eligible for state subsidies. 

According to the Boston Globe, the subsidies in Massachusetts alone could be worth as much as six cents a kilowatt hour.

Incumbent Democratic governor Deval Patrick  - who won re-election last week - opposed the idea:

“It does not make sense to give renewable energy incentives to a foreign-owned enterprise for something that needs no subsidy,’’ Patrick said in a statement to the [Boston] Globe. “It would amount to a windfall of hundreds of millions of dollars for Canadian ratepayers at the expense of Massachusetts customers.’’

That doesn’t mean the idea is dead in Massachusetts, though.  Energy giant Hydro-Quebec is lobbying hard for the “renewable” status for its own projects. Earlier this year, the company won a battle in Vermont to make hydro eligible for subsidies. That’s all part of HQ’s push to take its share of the New England energy market from 8.5% to upwards of 12%.

Lowering the cost of Lower Churchill power by six cents a kilowatt hour could make Muskrat Falls financially viable, especially if NALCOR left the American marketing to a private sector partner and let that company keep the subsidies.  NALCOR already sells power at the Quebec-New York border to Emera.  Under a deal announced in 2009, the Newfoundland and Labrador company apparently gets about the same rate per kilowatt hour it got from a similar deal with Quebec that expired in 2009.  Any other financial details, like profits from seasonal price fluctuations, seem to flow to the private sector.  It’s hard to know for sure since details of the 2009 detail are confidential. 

And while Danny Williams claimed last week he’d lay any development deal for the very expensive Muskrat Falls version of the project in front of the public, he hasn’t lived up to similar promises yet on other projects.  Many of the key details of the 2007 Hebron deal remain shrouded in secrecy.  Amendments to the province’s open records laws in 2008 shield the publicly owned NALCOR from disclosure of its financial dealings even though it receives public funds to run the company and its subsidiaries.

Foreign tax credits aren’t the only way NALCOR could subsidise the cost of building Muskrat Falls.

Under the most recent version of the Lower Churchill described recently by Premier Danny Williams, 40% of the power from Muskrat Falls would come to eastern Newfoundland. NALCOR’s environmental submissions on the project make it clear, however, that the island portion of the province doesn’t need the power now or in the foreseeable future. The company also plans to keep its diesel generators at Holyrood running even after it builds any new lines to the island from Labrador.

Shipping power to a part of the province that doesn’t need it would give the public utilities board the legal basis to offset any losses from sales to Nova Scotia or into Quebec by offloading them on local ratepayers.  That’s because provincial laws require that the public utilities board to set rates that protect NALCOR’s financial position from its entire operations.  But that rate-setting power only applies to domestic rates. PUB doesn’t regulate export prices.  By using Lower Churchill power in the province – even when it isn’t needed - NALCOR could use local ratepayers to subsidise power exports. 

Taxpayers could get hit another way on the deal as well.  Any NALCOR debt for the project – likely to be at least $6.0 billion – will wind up on the balance sheet of the provincial government, one of the most indebted provincial governments in Canada on a per capita basis. 

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Lower Churchill: more potato, potato

Sometimes really interesting things crop up in two stories about the Lower Churchill. 

Take for example, the likelihood of a deal with Emera to run a power line to Nova Scotia.  There’s a Canadian Press story dated November 1 that says this:

The head of Nalcor Energy won't say whether the Newfoundland and Labrador Crown agency is close to inking a deal with Emera Inc. (TSX:EMA) on the proposed Lower Churchill hydroelectric project.

Then there’s a CBC story dated November 1 that says something else:

Hydroelectric power from a proposed project in Labrador could reach the Maritimes within five to six years, Ed Martin, president of Newfoundland's Nalcor Energy, said Monday.

That five years obviously wouldn’t start today because as of 2010, the project is still bogged down in an environmental assessment.  Still, Ed didn’t give a probably projection on that.  It could – entirely fantastically  - be pumping juice in five years;  odds are though that the project would not be pushing electricity a decade from now. 

Premier Danny Williams recently told a gathering of the province’s Reform-based Conservative Party that a deal to develop one dam was possibly very close.  Ed Martin, the head of the province’s energy corporation told reporters in Halifax this week that  - from the CBC story – "[t]ime will not drive us. It has to be right."

Hmmm.

Potato.  Potato.

Tomato. Tomato.

Maybe the whole thing’s off. 

Maybe the whole thing’s on.

Maybe the whole thing is half on, and half off, go-it-alone and with partners simultaneously.

Surely you’ve noticed that since 2005 this project has gone from doing it alone to doing it with partners to doing only a bit of it with partners and still nothing has happened after five years of endless public posturing.

Oh yes, and five years of secret talks, in addition to the public talking about it.

And the price, meanwhile is still $6.5 billion for the smaller dam and a bunch of expensive transmission lines.  That was the original price for two dams and a line to Quebec. The whole thing could actually cost as much as $14 billion.

But that’s not the end of the flippin’ and da floppin’.

Danny Williams told his Conservative followers that the line to Nova Scotia would be a sweet way to reject Quebec after all their slights, real and imagined, over the years.  According to CBC, Martin said that shipping all that power means NALCOR needs a line to Nova Scotia in addition to a line that runs through Quebec.

"If we are going to move the kind of volumes we're talking about over the 50 years, we've come to the conclusion we need both routes."

And in leading up to that comment, Martin restated one of the ideas your humble e-scribbler floated, just so he could refute it:

"With respect to that question of is it something that we're using it from a leverage perspective, the answer is no,"

Still, though, if Ed Martin actually had a deal or was really close to one, he’d be announcing it rather than talking about all sorts of scenarios and possibilities.

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Emera silent on Lower Churchill talks

From Canadian Press:

HALIFAX - Halifax-based energy company Emera Inc., is declining comment on whether a deal is imminent with Newfoundland's Nalcor Energy on the proposed Lower Churchill hydroelectric project in Labrador.

…

Emera spokeswoman Sasha Irving will only say that talks are ongoing with both Newfoundland and New Brunswick on an energy link.

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NALCOR: the power of nostalgia

Via labradore comes a copy of the 1978 ad used to push the idea of selling Lower Churchill power to Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island.

Next up:  NALCOR invests in a pet rock factory.

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