Stranger than fiction: gaseous emissions #nlpoli

According to Voice of the Cabinet Minister, Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro is looking for back-up electricity generation in case another one of the oil-fired generators at Holyrood goes down.

Among the alternative fuels under consideration:  natural gas.

Here’s the online story, since it will soon be disappeared:

Newfoundland Hydro is exploring generation supply options should it lose another generating unit like the one at the Holyrood plant that was damaged in last month's storm. The manager of system operations and integration support, Rob Henderson, says they're looking at a number of gas, diesel, and combustion mobile generating units that can be used where needed if something catastrophic should happen.

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The trap of fossil fuels #nlpoli #cdnpoli

Muskrat Falls green.

Right?

Get rid of Holyrood.

Holyrood bad.

No more oil burning.

Must be true.

After all, natural resources minister Jerome Kennedy tweeted a couple of weeks ago that:

The cost of oil makes Holyrood so expensive. At peak it burns 18,000 barrels of oil per day. Experts tell us that oil will continue to rise.

…

MF cont'd. Cost of fixing up Holyrood is $600M. Forecasted cost of oil between 2017-36 is more that $7B.Hydro avoids the volatility of oil.

And Premier Kathy Dunderdale told the St. John’s Board of Trade not even 48 hours ago of the glorious future when there are no more fossil fuel plants in Newfoundland, thanks to the wonders of her Muskrat Falls project:

What is the best thing we can do for our children 30, 40 and 50 years from now? It is to escape from a thermal future, taking our economy off the trap of fossil fuels, where we are hostage to rising oil prices. We will deliver a secure, sustainable economy to our children, and that is a legacy we can all be proud of.

Yeah well, hang on to your long johns, there, kiddies.

According to Manitoba Hydro International, the Muskrat Falls plan includes the construction of seven new oil-fired  - i.e. thermal – generating plants between 2036 and 2037.

The total cost for these additional facilities is estimated to cost a total of $1.4 billion in the MHI documents on thermal generation. Is that included in the $5.0 billion cost estimate for this project, less the connection to Nova Scotia?

Sharp eyes will notice that Holyrood doesn’t shut down in this plan until 2030.  That’s with Muskrat Falls.  it will run as a line condenser to help with the transmission and, if you follow the discussion, as a small back-up generator for a short period.

Don’t think too hard about those dates, though.  The entire Muskrat plan anticipates that construction has already started.  They begin counting time in 2010 and have initial power flowing by 2017.  You can already slide that back by at least 12 months and possible 18 months or more.

And don’t you recall reading somewhere official that with “Muskrat Falls, the Newfoundland and Labrador electricity system will be run on 98 per cent renewable, emission-free energy?”

You can take that to the bank.

That is copper-fastened.

Well, maybe more like brass, with a bit of tarnish on it. According to Manitoba Hydro International’s financial assessment:

By 2067, the generation capacity mix for the Infeed Option will be based on 65% hydroelectric and 35% thermal.

Good thing we will escape the trap of fossil fuels.

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Lower Churchill: US and NL taxpayers might help subsidize costly big hydro project

Premier Danny Williams is promising a Lower Churchill deal before the end of the year and one way he could finance the project is by offloading the cost onto American and Canadian taxpayers.

Some American politicians are trying to redefine state environmental subsidies that currently don’t include hydro megaprojects like the Lower Churchill.  In Massachusetts, Republican gubernatorial candidate Charles Baker not only advocated for big hydro as part of the state’s energy future, he also favoured giving big hydro projects the “renewable” status that would make them eligible for state subsidies. 

According to the Boston Globe, the subsidies in Massachusetts alone could be worth as much as six cents a kilowatt hour.

Incumbent Democratic governor Deval Patrick  - who won re-election last week - opposed the idea:

“It does not make sense to give renewable energy incentives to a foreign-owned enterprise for something that needs no subsidy,’’ Patrick said in a statement to the [Boston] Globe. “It would amount to a windfall of hundreds of millions of dollars for Canadian ratepayers at the expense of Massachusetts customers.’’

That doesn’t mean the idea is dead in Massachusetts, though.  Energy giant Hydro-Quebec is lobbying hard for the “renewable” status for its own projects. Earlier this year, the company won a battle in Vermont to make hydro eligible for subsidies. That’s all part of HQ’s push to take its share of the New England energy market from 8.5% to upwards of 12%.

Lowering the cost of Lower Churchill power by six cents a kilowatt hour could make Muskrat Falls financially viable, especially if NALCOR left the American marketing to a private sector partner and let that company keep the subsidies.  NALCOR already sells power at the Quebec-New York border to Emera.  Under a deal announced in 2009, the Newfoundland and Labrador company apparently gets about the same rate per kilowatt hour it got from a similar deal with Quebec that expired in 2009.  Any other financial details, like profits from seasonal price fluctuations, seem to flow to the private sector.  It’s hard to know for sure since details of the 2009 detail are confidential. 

And while Danny Williams claimed last week he’d lay any development deal for the very expensive Muskrat Falls version of the project in front of the public, he hasn’t lived up to similar promises yet on other projects.  Many of the key details of the 2007 Hebron deal remain shrouded in secrecy.  Amendments to the province’s open records laws in 2008 shield the publicly owned NALCOR from disclosure of its financial dealings even though it receives public funds to run the company and its subsidiaries.

Foreign tax credits aren’t the only way NALCOR could subsidise the cost of building Muskrat Falls.

Under the most recent version of the Lower Churchill described recently by Premier Danny Williams, 40% of the power from Muskrat Falls would come to eastern Newfoundland. NALCOR’s environmental submissions on the project make it clear, however, that the island portion of the province doesn’t need the power now or in the foreseeable future. The company also plans to keep its diesel generators at Holyrood running even after it builds any new lines to the island from Labrador.

Shipping power to a part of the province that doesn’t need it would give the public utilities board the legal basis to offset any losses from sales to Nova Scotia or into Quebec by offloading them on local ratepayers.  That’s because provincial laws require that the public utilities board to set rates that protect NALCOR’s financial position from its entire operations.  But that rate-setting power only applies to domestic rates. PUB doesn’t regulate export prices.  By using Lower Churchill power in the province – even when it isn’t needed - NALCOR could use local ratepayers to subsidise power exports. 

Taxpayers could get hit another way on the deal as well.  Any NALCOR debt for the project – likely to be at least $6.0 billion – will wind up on the balance sheet of the provincial government, one of the most indebted provincial governments in Canada on a per capita basis. 

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NALCOR: the power of constipation

Supposedly all we need is to know that the provincial government’s energy corporation, d.b.a. NALCOR, is “aligned” and will take all the time it needs in order to arrive at a “quality decision” on whether or not to install emission control equipment on its diesel generating plant at Holyrood.

For now, let’s leave three things out of this discussion.

First, this isn’t the place to rehash the nonsense which is NALCOR’s two, inherently contradictory position on Holyrood.

Second, and related to that, let’s not draw too much attention to the fact that NALCOR chief executive Ed Martin’s proposed solution to the $600 million cost of cleaning up Holyrood’s act is a multi-billion dollar pair of hydroelectric dams in Labrador and a giant set of power lines, the lines by themselves estimated to cost more than three times the scrubber cost, that will stretch out to the Avalon.

And third, let’s not note that NALCOR’s own capital plant maintains that Holyrood will have to continue running for the next two decades at at least one quarter to one third its capacity.  In other words, it won’t be shutting down at all.  As such, NALCOR will have to spend the $600 million or so in order to reduce noxious emissions from the plant regardless of whether the Great White Whale gets built or not.

Why Ed Martin and his boss, the Old Man, continue to pack around about this and bullshit the people of the province is beyond rational comprehension.

Instead of that, let us focus Martin’s suggestion that maybe some new types of generation might allow NALCOR the dirty power at Holyrood with some nice clean stuff. That might be cheaper, sez Martin than the environmental cleaners.

For starters, Martin is already sitting on juice to help replace Holyrood.  He got it as a gift from Danny in December 2008.  The only problem – apparently  - is that the interconnection between the Avalon and the rest of the island cannot carry the whole load. 

NALCOR needs some cash to make things happen. NALCOR has the cash, of course, or the capacity to borrow it, thanks to some generous gifts of public money  - yours and mine – courtesy of the Old Man and his crowd. The company is in a nifty position, frankly, since they get to play at being an oil company without having to pay all the costs.  NALCOR won’t pay the owners of the resource  - you and me - a penny in royalty for the oil we’ve given then.  We get the liability and the cost.  Martin and his crowd get the cash.

Pretty sweet deal, if anyone is asking.  And frankly, given the generosity of the current administration with resources and cash – yours and mine - it wouldn’t be too much if you and me expected Martin to install the cleansers and the new line most ricky tick.  He can spare us the bullshit and just get on with the job.

But it is when Martin mentions wind energy that he turns from a purveyor of  annoying bullshit to profound disingenuousness.

As Martin knows, this province has the smallest amount of wind power installed or under development of any province in the country.  It is a mere 54 megawatts in two sites. Tiny Prince Edward Island has more than twice that already on the go.  In short, this province, the one the Old Man and his retinue proclaim as a current and future energy warehouse is so far back in the field that it is not even close to being able to see the far distant ass the of the last place contender for the Crown.

There are two reasons for that.  Assuming that Martin read the Lower Churchill environmental applications he already knows that there is actually no reason to build the LC if the main reason is shipping power to St. John’s.  There’s really no need for additional generating capacity and, as it stands, NALCOR can now reduce Holyrood to virtually nil capacity.

As for the rest of the province, that is, the largest bit of it, the reason there are no wind farms under consideration is simply because NALCOR and the province don’t want them.  Official government policy subordinates any new generation, from small hydro to wind, to the Great White Whale project.

Put another way, innovation is dead as a doornail in Newfoundland and Labrador. The provincial government’s energy policy is working against the best interests of the people of the province.

Ed Martin’s comments to CBC recently could just as easily have been summarised with a parody of the old Mexican bandito line:  “Innovation?  We dun need no stinkin’ innovation.” Martin merely affirmed the power of constipation that afflicts the administration and its energy company, at least when it comes to innovation and energy.

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Privatize NALCOR?

The head of the Newfoundland and Labrador First Party wants to turn Marine Atlantic over to the private sector:

“I say privatize it because it’s a government organization and it smacks of being government-run,” he said. “I think a lot of the problems they’re having sometimes deal with unions. ... Maybe a private operator will come in, get rid of the unions and get things back on an even keel. I think it’s a drastic step, but sometimes drastic measures are what’s needed.”

Makes you wonder how he’d feel about NALCOR, another Crown corporation that can’t seem to deliver on its commitments. The latest one is a 2007 commitment to clean up emissions from its thermal plant at Holyrood. 

According to NALCOR chief executive Ed Martin, he and his team are “aligned” on the issue  - shades of 2012 - but will take as much time as necessary to make a “quality decision”.

Someone should ask the people of Holyrood if they agree with Wayne Bennett.

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Holyrood pollution and the Great White Whale

According to the Telegram, Holyrood town council is expected to vote this week to ask the provincial energy company and the provincial government to follow through on commitments to reduce emissions from the thermal generating plant at Holyrood.

The problem both for the town is that it is stuck accepting NALCOR’s own contradictory statements on Holyrood.

On the one hand you have the statement contained in the provincial energy plan.  Under that version, the company would either install scrubbers and precipitators to deal with emissions or  - as a NALCOR spokesperson told the Telegram - “displace existing fossil fuel generation at the Holyrood generating station.”

But as Bond Papers readers know, Holyrood will be a crucial part of the NALCOR system no matter what.  This is not an either/or proposition.  The scrubbers and precipitators will have to be installed.  Even if the heavens open, miracles happen and NALCOR builds the Lower Churchill anytime in the next two decades, NALCOR plans to keep Holyrood on stream.

You don’t just have to believe your old e-scribbler.  Here’s exactly how NALCOR described it:

It is important to consider that whichever expansion scenario occurs, an isolated Island electrical system or interconnected to the Lower Churchill via HVDC link, Holyrood will be an integral and vital component of the electrical system for decades to come. In the isolated case Holyrood will continue to be a generating station; in the interconnected scenario its three generating units will operate as synchronous condensers, providing system stability, inertia and voltage control.

Things don’t get any better, by the by, if you try and follow Calamity Kathy Dunderdale’s version of things.

What seems to be going on here is pretty simple.  NALCOR and the Premier are obsessed with a hydro megaproject that they just can’t build.  Everything else is being held hostage by that obsession.

For example, power from central Newfoundland can’t be used to replace Holyrood since the connection to the Avalon can’t bear the added load NALCOR won’t upgrade that transmission capacity unless the LC goes ahead.  At the same time, NALCOR won’t pursue alternative generation – like say wind power – because it is fixated on the Lower Churchill.  This sort of stuff is well laid out in the LC environmental review documents. 

And if that weren’t bad enough a decades old moratorium on small hydro projects remains in place. The 2007 energy plan committed government to lift it or keep it in place in 2009, the year they were supposed to start the Lower Churchill.

Guess what?

That decision is held up, as well, because the Great White Whale remains just out of Ahab’s grasp.

So if the Holyrood town council wants to get their local air improved, the first thing they need to do is toss aside the bumpf coming from the provincial government and NALCOR about the Lower Churchill.

Instead, they need to hold NALCOR to the statements in its 20 year capital plan.

And that means they need to come up with a timetable to install emission reduction equipment on the facility that NALCOR says will be a vital part of its system for decades to come.

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What’s our policy again?

Provincial cabinet ministers like to accuse everyone else of not understanding what is going on or of being mistaken.

Here’s a typical quote from May 18 in Question Period:

MR. KING: Mr. Speaker, I realize members opposite are not in the habit of stating the facts, but I want to correct the member opposite,…

The problem for Mr. King and his colleagues, though, has been that they often don’t seem to have a sweet clue as to what is going on in the world around them.  Some of them have about as much familiarity with facts and reason as a 12 year old girl looking for tickets to a Justin Bieber concert.

Take, for example, this claim – an old chestnut – by the province’s natural resources minister also made on May 18:

Nalcor has costed out the infrastructure that is going to be required to bring in the right number of megawatts of electricity to serve the Avalon Peninsula with the elimination of Holyrood. That is a stated goal of this Province. It is one of the major reasons why we are so focused on the development of the Lower Churchill, Mr. Speaker.

All of the infrastructure that is going to be required to bring the power onto the Island part of the Province, transmit it across the Province and eliminate Holyrood, and also create a subsea line to Eastern Canada and through to the United States is all part of the planning of the development of the Lower Churchill.

Got that?

Eliminate Holyrood.

Provincial government policy.

Spearheaded by the energy corporation, currently doing business as NALCOR Energy.

Someone needs to tell NALCOR, then, because here’s what the company said in its 20 year capital plan that it submitted to the public utilities board:

It is important to consider that whichever expansion scenario occurs, an isolated Island electrical system or interconnected to the Lower Churchill via HVDC link, Holyrood will be an integral and vital component of the electrical system for decades to come. In the isolated case Holyrood will continue to be a generating station; in the interconnected scenario its three generating units will operate as synchronous condensers, providing system stability, inertia and voltage control.

Holyrood: integral and vital component for years to come.

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