Locke warns of financial problems

Wade Locke’s been making the rounds of local media in advance of his talk tonight at the Harris Centre of Memorial University.  Your humble e-scribbler posted the details of it on Monday.

Some quick observations on this Telegram version:

1. There is nothing new in Locke’s presentation that hasn’t been in the public domain  - in some cases – for a couple of decades.
2. That said, the fact that the government’s favourite economist is now undermining the economist’s favourite government might be enough to get these issues into wider discussion.
3. Once that happens it should be fairly obvious the current crowd have helped shape the current mess and their intention is to make a bad situation even worse.
4. Locke’s solution – we need a plan – is a penetrating insight into the obvious. The current crowd got us into this mess precisely because they had no plan.
5. Unfortunately, there’s no sign of any pressure to create a plan in the near term.
6. Politicians – like some of the people on the panel with Locke tonight - will continue to deny there’s anything here that needs attention.  others, like the current administration will talk about doing something constructive and then either do nothing or make the situation worse.
7. There’s no sign any of the political parties in the province are ready to deal with the provincial government’s financial mess.

Put all that together with the volatile political environment and you have the potential for one of the most dramatic political years in the province’s history.

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Dundernomics 101: the promise of problems ahead

Take a look at this picture. 

It comes from Wade Locke’s presentation at a conference of the province’s credit unions in Gander in the latter part of May.

The blue line is government income (revenue).  The red line is government spending (expenditure).

When the blue lie is above the red line, you have a surplus.  When the red line is above the blue line you have a deficit.  The distance between the blue and the red line is the size of the surplus or deficit in any given year.

Let’s zoom in on the last bit there because it shows a period where government spending is going to outstrip income in every single year.  yes, despite being a have province and pulling in billions in oil money every year, the current administration is forecast to rack up the public debt by plain, old-fashioned overspending.

Now there are a couple of things to note here. 

First of all, Locke is allowing for constant spending.  As he notes in the text under the slide, it is actually different from the provincial government version that claims a drop in spending three years out.

Given that the current budget shows a sizeable increase in spending you can safely forecast a five percent increase in annual government spending in every single one of those years.  That’s actually much less than what the Tories have done since 2003 but let’s be  - no pun intended – conservative in our forecast of their overspending.

Second of all, let’s look at Locke’s explanation for this problem:  “growth in oil royalties does not offset loss of $540 million in Atlantic Accord monies in 2011-2012” 

There are two words for this:  pure crap.  In more polite terms, this is where Locke’s economics proves woefully unable to contend with a  fundamental problem in government policy. His comments, as a result, are simplistic in the extreme and – at the very best – misleading. 

What you have here – in simplest terms – is a government that has no control whatsoever over public spending.  The reason spending outstrips income is because the provincial government lacks a policy that would allow it to establish spending priorities and to stick with them.

What’s more, those big blue spikes there in the middle and the surpluses they represent are purely accidental.  The only reason they exist is because the money flooded in so fast that the finance ministry ran out of places to spend the money during the year.

Sound fiscal management – spending public money wisely – is the most fundamental responsibility that a responsible government has.  If a government doesn’t control spending it can wind up, in the extreme, in the situation newfoundland found itself in the early 1930s.

All Locke does here is offer an excuse by trying to shift responsibility from the government responsible for the mess to one that isn’t. What’s more, even if the federal government agreed to continue sending $500 million annually to St. John’s any provincial government that cannot control public spending will always be running up deficits.

What is truly chilling in this slide is that last bit.  It ends in 2017, the same year the current administration forecasts it will have finished building the multi-billion dollar Muskrat Falls project. 

Locke has a good chart of the debt over the next six years.  What you have to realise is that he is basing it, apparently, just on the growing deficits on annual spending.  Locke rightly notes that any changes in spending or in oil prices will make the deficit in any one year bigger or smaller than he has shown it.

If you can’t pick out the numbers there, the last one is $10.5 billion.  That’s the same number it was in 2003 when the provincial Conservatives took power.  And as Locke notes, things don;t get better after that point.

Things also aren’t really going to be as rosy as those numbers might appear to some.  Locke left out – apparently – the debt resulting from the Muskrat Falls project. 

Conservatively, you can add another $5.0 billion to that figure.  That’s because the $6.0 billion the Dunderdale crowd say that Muskrat will cost is laughably low.  It will likely wind up costing closer to $10 billion than not.  Even if they can somehow use cash reserves or other money to keep the borrowing down, the provincial government and Nalcor won’t be able to avoid borrowing about half of the total cost of the project.

And if all that doesn’t leave you cold, just remember that Wade Locke usually makes comments that pout the current provincial administration in the best light possible.  The fact he delivered a talk recently that suggests there are serious problems is a sign things are nowhere near as rosy as some would have you believe.

There are problems ahead.

Serious problems.

The current administration helped create the problems.

They have no intention, let alone a plan, to deal with the problems.

That is Dundernomics at work.

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Provincial government wakes up on EU trade

Almost two years after your humble e-scribbler pointed out the blatant stupidity of the provincial government’s decision to boycott free trade talks, the provincial government is now sorting itself out.

The provincial government trade gang will switch from observers to participants at the upcoming trade talks between Canada and the European Union in April.

The old policy  - supported unquestioningly by the same people who have now turned 180 degrees – was stupid because it jeopardized the existing and future economic interests of the province and left local industry to being left out of a new lucrative market.

What’s worse, the old, stupid policy threatened to increase the dependence of the local economy on  on the American market. As a result, the provincial economy would become even more fragile than it had already grown as a result of seven years of backward economic policy by the provincial government.

It may have taken two years but the current crowd have finally figured it out.

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Just imagine…

For some reason, the Conservative government of Danny Williams wanted to smash Fishery Products International and sell off the bits and pieces.

FPI used to be a large and successful fish processing company based in Newfoundland and Labrador.
Now it doesn’t exist any more and the most lucrative bits and pieces wound up in the hands of people who don’t do much business in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Just imagine if certain powerful interests in the province hadn’t destroyed the company.  FPI might be doing what one of its former competitors is now doing:  trying to buy into the Iceland fish business.

High Liner announced late Tuesday that it made an unsolicited offer worth ¤340-million ($445.4-million) to acquire Icelandic, one of the three biggest value-added seafood processors to the U.S. food service market. It wants the company simply to bulk up its own business.

That wouldn’t normally be front-page news. But in this case, it was the main story in at least two major media outlets. Why? Because Icelandic is owned by a public pension consortium run by the Framtakssjódur Íslands fund. And the owners have excluded the Canadians so far from the takeover process. High Liner piping up publicly was akin to a foreign company telling Iceland’s politicians to smarten up and open up the sales process to more bidders.

There’s a fascinating story in the Financial Post on the whole thing.

The world is only as small as people imagine themselves to be and, for the past seven years, this province has been dominated by people whose vision is incredibly myopic.

The consequences of such limited thinking are all around us, from the fragile economy that worries the cabinet minister who helped create it to this sort of lost opportunity in the fishery.

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The Fragile Economy: finance minister complains about his own policies

Finance minister Tom Marshall thinks its time for the private sector to step in and boost the economy around Corner Brook.

“Other than construction, I would like to see more economic investment; I would like to see more businesses coming in and investing here,” he said. “It is jobs ... What we have seen is government spending, in a massive way, in this area.”

That’s from a story in last Friday’s Western Star.

Two observations come readily to mind.

First of all, that’s a great big “D’uh” there, Tom.  Your humble e-scribbler has been banging out post after post after post over the past six years on this very subject.  The number of posts on it has gone up in the past two years because the fundamental situation is getting fundamentally worse. 

It is getting fundamentally worse – to hit the second point – as a direct result of government policy.  In everything from its energy policy to its disastrous seizure of private sector assets in 2008, the current administration has shown itself to be relentlessly opposed to creating an economic climate that attracts investment, promotes innovation and rewards entrepreneurship. 

The current fragile state of the provincial economy  - “fragile” is a word Tom Marshall used not so long ago, by the way - is a direct consequence of government policies.  Only a fundamental shift in those policies can move the province off the course it is currently on.

As it stands in early 2011, the current administration is firmly committed to continuing the policies that have contributed to putting the economy in its current parlous state.

We have seen the enemy, says finance minister Tom Marshall, and he is us.

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The Boom Gap

The value of building permits in Newfoundland and Labrador went from $79.9 million in September to more than $188 million in October.

Great, right?

Well, yes, as long as you are in St. John’s.  That’s where the bulk if the growth came: $149.6 million to be exact.

A mere 20% of the total value of building permits in the province came outside St. John’s.  That speaks volumes about how economic development is doing outside the capital city region.

And the source of that townie growth?  “Institutional” building permits. Government spending, in other words.

Spending public money seems to be a popular economic development idea these days.  The provincial government has been pushing it since at least 2005. The local business community likes sucking the public tit.

But neither the provincial government nor the business sector seems to give a rat’s behind that this trend is very unhealthy. Very unhealthy, indeed.

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The finance minister who loved deficits

Give finance minister Tom Marshall credit for one thing is nothing else. 

Tom told a CBC Radio Morning Show [audio file]audience in St. John’s on Wednesday the God’s honest truth about oil royalties and recent windfalls;  Danny didn’t do it.

Those royalties are a function of three things, according to Tom:

• price
• production, and
• the relative value of the dollar. 

And, sez, Tom, those are things the provincial government doesn’t control.  Regular readers of these e-scribbles will be familiar with the idea.

So there you have it, straight from an authoritative source:  Danny didn’t do it.

But the interview on Wednesday was also a chance for Tom to slip back into his regular routine of saying one thing that sounds sensible, all the while denying the insensible stuff he’s actually doing as finance minister.

He told CBC that:

"It would be a travesty if we don't use this windfall we have, this oil — which will be gone one day — if we don't use that to get rid of this massive debt that our people and our governments have accumulated," …

Only Tom Marshall could say that with a straight face. 

Don’t misunderstand:  not using the oil windfall to reduce the public debt burden in this province should be one of the provincial government’s main uses for the gigantic oil windfall.

The funny part is that the provincial government has been doing just the opposite of what Tom said.  He got the verb tense wrong and he ought to know it.  It is a travesty that the provincial government has not been using the oil windfall from the middle part of the decade to pay down the huge public debt. 

Not “would be”.

“Is”.

Tom Marshall, finance minister, has consistent refused throughout his entire term of office to accept any suggestion that would significantly reduce public indebtedness.  Marshall has been very clear about his desire to retain the right to overspend the public accounts free of any fetters:

I certainly would agree with fiscal responsibility legislation … but I'm not prepared to be locked in automatically to a balanced budget every year," he said [in April 2007].

The most he’d accept, apparently,  is a law that said balanced budgets might be an interesting idea.

Then Tom went right on jacking up spending whenever he could.  In fact, he boosted it up so high and so far that people have called the current financial state of the province as unsustainable.

Who said that?

Well, not just your humble e-scribbler.  There was – according to Marshall himself - an analyst for Moody’s bond raters who questioned the sustainability of public spending. Then there was a cabinet minister who muttered the word as he left cabinet.

And most recently, an analyst for the Atlantic Provinces Economic Council warned that the provincial government needed to tackle its massive debt before it started thinking about piling on even more debt for an energy megaproject.

That would, of course, be the massive increase in the public debt Tom Marshall and his colleague’s announced a week and a bit ago.

Tom Marshall:  debt fighter.

Or not.

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The Fragile Economy: reversing the entrepreneurial drive

In a province that is so heavily dependent on public sector spending, it’s hard to imagine anyone would think that having the government play such a huge role in  the provincial government in the economy would be a great idea.

Step forward the head of the St. John’s Board of Trade:

Chairman of the Board of Trade, Derek Sullivan said government contracts give a competitive advantage for local businesses and “can be a very powerful and reliable revenue stream.”

Talk about throwing the engine of economic development into complete reverse. 

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The Dismal Science: Debunking the “federal presence” fairy tale

Far from being hard done-by when it comes to federal jobs in the province, Newfoundland and Labrador is pretty much on par, according to a recent study conducted by the Frontier Centre for Public Policy, and reported by the National Post.

You can find a news release summarising the report here, while the full report is available in pdf format.

Some provinces  - Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Manitoba – have significantly more than the national average number of federal jobs per 100,000 population.  Quebec, Saskatchewan, British Columbia and Alberta have less.

Newfoundland and Labrador and Ontario are only slightly higher than the national average.

The study effectively refutes claims that this province is receiving something less than its “entitlement’ to federal pork spending.  The comparative figures also demolish two reports released by Memorial University’s Harris Centre in 2005 and 2006.  The provincial government has used those studies repeatedly to bolster its claims for increased federal transfers to the province to offset what turn out to be imaginary grievances.

The Frontier Centre study refers to these federal jobs as a form of “stealth” Equalization.  That is, they contend that the federal jobs serve as a type of federal transfer to the local economy in each of the provinces. More importantly, though, the Frontier Centre contends that the transfer comes in addition to the formal Equalization program and is particularly heavy in the provinces it refers to as “major” have-provinces.

The study also notes that the have-not provinces with the highest ratio of federal government jobs also tend to have higher than average reliance on provincial public sector jobs generally. They compare provinces based on the number of public sector employers as a share of the total population.  Newfoundland and Labrador is third highest on that scale, with Prince Edward Island and Manitoba coming, respectively, first and second.

Looking at the same information but as a share of the provincial labour force, Newfoundland and Labrador is by far the province with the largest dependence on the public sector.  Almost 30% of the provincial labour force is employed by the federal, provincial or municipal government.

The Frontier Centre study puts the findings into a particular context, namely transfer payment reform:

The stealth equalization of unbalanced federal employment described in this paper is part of a much bigger problem —an approach to public policy in Canada that transfers money out of high-productivity regions into low-productivity regions.

Not only is this policy approach harmful to our productivity growth, it is also, quite simply, unsustainable. Historically, the taxpayers in three provinces—British Columbia, Alberta and Ontario, have paid most of the bill for high levels of public sector employment in the have-not provinces.

At the same time, the study does point to issues that are especially relevant to Newfoundland and Labrador, even if the report’s authors simply missed the poster child for their argument of unsustainable public spending and the dangers of reliance on what the author’s call “the state driven approach to economic development”.

Most residents of the recipient provinces are unaware of the extent to which their economies are state-driven and reliant on transfers. Beyond the official equalization money, massive amounts of revenue from elsewhere flow into these provinces from a number of different sources. Stealth equalization through federal employment is one important example—but there are others. Higher dependence on federal
government transfers to individuals and discrimination in ordinary  operating programs in favour of the have-nots are two more examples of ways Canadian public policy transfers wealth into the have-nots.

Most residents of Newfoundland and Labrador are unaware of the extent to which the provincial economy is state-driven and reliant on federal transfers in addition to overall public sector spending.

They aren’t alone, of course.  The current provincial administration operates as if going off Equalization was a tragedy of biblical proportions.

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Related: 

• Fragile Economy:  staying the course
• Fragile Economy:  reductio ad argentum
• Fragile Economy:  The public sector
• Fragile Economy: …and two steps back
• Fragile Economy: …now three steps back and loving it

Throw money at it: provgov to study garbage

Sometimes it seems as if Gus Portokalos’ brother wound up running the Newfoundland and Labrador government.

While Gus wanted to put window cleaner on everything, Gus’ imaginary brother in the provincial government likes to throw money at it.

The most recent example is a fund set up with a research centre at Memorial University. There is now $300,000 available to probe garbage.

Apparently, there are “unique waste diversion challenges” in Newfoundland and Labrador. 

So now the fine folks at the province’s university can get up to $15,000 to study ways of “reducing the amount of waste created, reusing materials and products, recycling or reprocessing waste, recovering some useful benefit from waste, and disposing of waste that has no further economic or environmental benefit.”

Ummm.

Right.

And these sorts of thing, the sorts of thing they’ve been doing everywhere else for decades, are not only unknown to people in Newfoundland and Labrador but we must fund university-level research to crack the garbage code that apparently bedevils us.

Once the researchers produce answers to the refuse puzzle, the second pillar of the anti-trash strategy will cut in:  they will tell people about it. And maybe, once they’ve told people about it, those people might come up with suggestions to – in the words of the guy running the research centre -  “shape research questions, leading to new ideas which then encourage further research to achieve implementation.”

So they’ll think about something.  Then they’ll tell people what they thought about.  And then the people they told will come up with new things to think about.  So the people doing the thinking will go back and think some more about the stuff they’ve been told to think about.

And maybe at some point, after all this thinking and talking and thinking and talking, someone might be able to do something with the garbage.

The technical term for this approach is GIGO:  garbage in, garbage out.

People unused to the refined language of the government and the university will only look at the complete lack of action on waste reduction since 2003  and think “circle jerk”.

And they will be right.

This is the administration, after all,  that is now renowned for its inability to do stuff.

This is the administration that took almost four years to take the waste management strategy of their predecessors, photocopy it, move all the target dates back a decade and then announce it as their own, brand-new strategy.

Just in time for an election.

And now three years after that announcement, they toss money at a bunch of people to supposedly figure out what to do with garbage.

This is the same administration that gave a consultant some unspecified hunk of public money to spend 18 months studying ways of keeping young people in the province. The result of the cogitation was truly Earth-shattering in its inventiveness:

1.  Create jobs.

2.  Put services in major centres. Like maybe St. John’s, Gander, Grand Falls-Windsor and Corner Brook?

3.  Link education to the labour market.

4.  Build “an understanding of the benefits of immigration and diversity through public education, community dialogue and strengthened curriculums in the education system.”

Well, d’uh.

And it even came with a spelling mistake in the bit that talks about education.

Brilliant!

There is no way that anyone could possibly invent this policy.  It is, after all, nothing more than a hideous self-parody of an administration that is obviously lacking any sense of direction.

Reductio ad argentum, indeed.

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Danny Williams and the National Post: Fact Check

No surprise Danny’s miffed at the National Post. 

Nor is it any surprise that the most thin-skinned person on the planet  - short of someone actually without an epidermis at all - claims that it isn’t about him.

And it’s really absolutely not the least bit of a shock that between the two of them -Danny Williams and the National Post -  readers will wind up being about as in  touch with reality in Newfoundland and Labrador as people who get everything they know about the universe from Glenn Beck.

Rather than go through the errors and nose-pullers in detail let’s just take the biggest whopper for each of them:

For the Old Man, it would be the contention that “Abitibi operated in our province for 100 years”.

Sure 65% of the province’s population may have trouble with numbers, math, logic and reasoning but few likely would have listed the province’s best-known Rhodes scholar among the innumerate.

Those that did can go to the head of the line.

The Anglo-Newfoundland Development Company opened the Grand Falls paper mill in 1909.  Abitibi started operations in 1912 but not in Newfoundland and Labrador.

This is 2010.

Right off the bat, anyone with that information would know that it is absolutely utterly and totally impossible for a company that is 98 years old to have been in operation more than two years before it existed.

I am my own grandpa indeed.

But then you have to consider that Abitibi didn’t arrive in Newfoundland and Labrador until 1969, a fact noted in some of the AbitibiBowater bankruptcy proceedings and a point that has curiously escaped every single reporter in this province for the 18 months or so the Premier has been saying this complete bit of nonsense.

Even a Rhodes scholar ought to know that 100 is not 41.

As a result of his repeated numerical blunder, one must wonder if Danny actually reads anything laid in front of him, whether his high-priced help are really that incompetent, whether he cares about facts at all, or if what we see here is some combination of all three.

Now for the Post stuff:

Well, the name of the province is Newfoundland and Labrador but that’s really the smallest part of the problem with the Post editorial.

The rest of it is a litany of things that never happened, as Williams easily pointed out.  Most of his comments in reply were just the usual self-serving blather but there’s no denying that the  magnitude of the factual errors in the editorial would stun a herd of the hardest-headed mountain goats in British Columbia.

The easiest thing to do is take the biggest error:  “… time and again, Ottawa graciously bails Mr. Williams out from his blundering anyway.”

The idea that Canadians have paid for all Williams’ blunders is just foolish.

Sure he managed to score a couple of billion extra from the feds in 2005 but for the most part, the major blunders of his administration haven’t cost all taxpayers in the country a penny.

Only provincial taxpayers will bear the load – way more than $130 million – from the expropriation fiasco.  They’ll also be taking their proportionate chunk of the NAFTA settlement as well.

Only the taxpayers in Newfoundland and Labrador will be coping with the huge cash deficits Williams’ administration is racking up.  They’ll be the only ones dealing with the fall-out from a record of wild public spending even his own cabinet ministers agree is unsustainable.

His huge gift to Big Oil  - section 5.1 of the Hebron financial agreement - won’t affect Ottawa a tiny bit even if it makes the provincial government nothing more than a vassal of the oil companies on some issues.

In the end, though, the Post is still the Post.

But word is Danny is looking for a post-politics gig.

Maybe Kory should give him a call.

If the guy can handle a piece of chalk, there’s the makings of a new star in the Reform-based Conservative Party news heavens.

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Jerome! if you want to

So the Premiers are getting together and one of the Premiers can’t go.  Let’s say he has a bad back.

The meeting is about the economy.  Who does he send to stand in for Hisself in all his premierifficness?

Three guesses.

Hand-picked usual stand in, d.b.a. deputy premier Calamity Kathy Dunderdale.

Nope.

Intergovernmental affairs minister Dave Denine.  Seems logical.  It’s a meeting among governments and that’s pretty much the definition of what an intergovernmental affairs minister should be doing.

Nope again. Dave Denine may have the title but he is really just building up pensionable time.

Hmmm.

Economy, right?

Finance minister Tom Marshall.

Nope for a third time. The Old Man sent the province’s health minister to an economic meeting.

Sure the guy was finance minister for a few months, but there are other people with nominal responsibilities that cover the meeting agenda topics long before you get to Jerome! Kennedy.

Curious.

Among other things, what you have here is a clear sign that Jerome! is one of the trusted handful who actually run the province.  Despite his griping, Danny does run the place just like he used to run the private businesses.  He handles things with a few trusted chums and that’s it.  Jerome!, Tom and Kathy are the latter day version of Steve, Ken and Dean. If something needs doing, Danny will turn to one of those three to get it done.

And let’s face it when the Old Man bitches about pesky things like internal party politics – let alone politics generally – what he is really saying is that he wished the world would frig off and let him rule his fiefdom as if it were a law firm or cable television company. 

The only thing he has ever asked is that people regard his voice as if it were the voice of God Himself. The only reason the Old Man has a caucus, a cabinet of more than three in the first place and a legislature of 48 is that he can’t easily get rid of the constitution.

Understand that and you understand everything.

Understand as well, that when the Old Man finally does pack it in, Jerome! is likely the guy to replace him.  Kathy and Tom are heading for the door likely before the next election.  Joan Burke may have a war chest but odds are that we’ll be talking about Premier Kennedy once Danny flips to Florida permanently.

Some of you may be wondering about the talk at the meeting about the economy and what role the federal government should play in continued stimulus spending.  You may be pondering what impact any of this will have on Newfoundland and Labrador. Premiers are agreed that the federal government should continue to spend.  They are only divided on the question of how much. Quel surprise.

Newfoundland and Labrador would be in an embarrassing spot on this issue and it will be interesting to see what, if anything, Jerome! has to say. 

He could not easily side with the other “have” provinces who now want the private sector to drive the recovery.  After all, Jerome! and his friends have presided over an unmistakeable – and presumably deliberate -  weakening of the private sector in the province.  Never mind Danny Williams’ claims about leading a Reform-based Conservative Party; his actions don’t match his words. 

Rather, the “have” province of Newfoundland and Labrador would have to side with the “have not” provinces like Ontario that want the federal government to keep pouring cash from its bank account to keep the place going. Williams, Kennedy are forecasting yet another record cash deficit for 2010. More are on the way in a province where public spending is the only thing keeping some parts going at all. Danny Williams, the leader of a Reform-based Conservative Party would have to wind up in the same position as Jack Layton, begging for Stephen Harper’s help.

It’s a good thing Danny’s back went out.  Jerome! can sneak in and sneak out without anybody really expecting him to say much.  If Williams had shown up then all his contradictory positions would be laid bare. His piss poor relationship with his fellows would be on display for all the world to see. He’d have a pain, alright, but a bit lower than his back.

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The Cutting EDGE

Introduced in 1995, the Economic Diversification and Growth Enterprises program – known as EDGE – is the most successful economic development program currently offered by the provincial government.

According to an article in the March 20 issue of the Telegram,

The province estimates that EDGE has created 1,500-1,600 jobs over the years. The government has forked out $17 million in rebates to employers under the program. Those rebates are linked to things like provincial income tax, payroll tax and corporate income tax.

Roughly 40 municipal governments also signed on to the EDGE scheme, providing their own tax relief to qualified companies.

Within the past five years alone, 30 companies have applied for support under the program and two thirds were accepted.

Compare that to the hand-out programs introduced under the current administration.  Of the $75 million budgeted over the past three years, the programs have only managed to give away $14 million;  of that amount $8.0 million went to a company that promised to increase its workforce but in the end cut jobs.

The provincial government is reviewing the EDGE program to see how it can be improved. Currently 69 companies hold EDGE status.  A further 54 held the status at one point but no longer qualify.

As the Telegram described the EDGE program:

To be eligible, a company must create and maintain 10 new permanent jobs in Newfoundland and Labrador and make a minimum capital investment of $300,000 or have incremental annual sales of $500,000.

Tax incentives are provided to EDGE-designated companies for a period of 10 or 15 years, followed by a five-year period of partial rebates.

Part of the program’s enduring success is the philosophy behind it. EDGE recognised the changed global economic circumstances and placed its greatest emphasis on encouraging the private sector to develop innovative, globally-competitive industries that could survive without extensive government cash support.

The background to the program is contained in a public consultation paper released in the summer of 1994.  The main sections of that document are reproduced below.  in light of the current government policy and the review of EDGE, it would be useful if more people in the province were aware of an economic development philosophy that continues to deliver strong results almost two decades after it first appeared.

Excerpts from: 

Attracting new business investment: a White Paper on proposed new legislation to promote economic diversification and growth enterprises in the province

(June 1994)

1.0  BACKGROUND

The Strategic Economic Plan for Newfoundland and Labrador, which was released in June of 1992, outlined the economic challenges facing the Province and charted new policy directions to guide economic development over the long term.

The Strategic Economic Plan noted in particular that the globalization of economic activity and the liberalization of world trade presents significant new export opportunities for manufactured goods and commercial services. Technological advances made in transportation and communications over the past decade, combined with the shift towards a more knowledge based world economy, have also reduced the relative importance placed on geographic location for many industries and firms, and this has created further opportunity for the development of new products and services. At the same time, however, these trends have brought increased international competition for economic activity, not only in the development of new products and services, but in respect of many of our existing industries as well.

These profound changes in global trade patterns, investment flows and technology constitute the driving force behind the fundamental economic restructuring that is now occurring in many countries. In an increasingly competitive and knowledge based world economy, it is clear that we can no longer rely on traditional approaches to attract new business investment and expand existing business enterprises. We will, out of necessity, have to become more outward looking in our approach to economic development and create an appropriate investment climate that supports international competitiveness.

It must also be recognized that the private sector is and will continue to be the engine of economic growth. This is a key principle embodied in the Strategic Economic Plan and reflects the reality that the private sector is the most effective vehicle through which lasting economic wealth and employment opportunities can be created for the people of this Province. It is the role of government in this context to create the economic climate in which private sector investment can occur and be successful.

2.0       GOAL

The goal of attracting new business investment as a means to create additional employment opportunity for the people of this Province is not a new concept. Indeed, various governmental incentive programs have met with measured degrees of success over time in this regard. However, the rapidly changing global marketplace and the province-wide impact on the economy resulting from the collapse of the groundfish fishery have heightened the need to significantly improve the attractiveness of the Province to the private sector as a place to invest and prosper. New business investment directed at economic diversification and general economic growth is not only an objective but an imperative at this juncture of the Province's history.

The Government of Newfoundland and Labrador intends to adopt bold and innovative measures to transform the Province into one of the most attractive locations - not only in Canada but in all of North America - for new business investment and to take aggressive new steps to market and promote the Province's strengths in this regard on a national and international basis.

The main elements of this new program will be reflected in legislation to be known as "An Act to Promote Economic Diversification and Growth Enterprises in the Province". This legislation will be presented to the House of Assembly for its consideration in the fall of 1994 and will provide an enhanced "business friendly" regime for new and expanding business enterprises in the Province.

3.0       SCOPE OF PROPOSED LEGISLATION

3.1      Eligibility

New business enterprises wishing to establish in the Province and existing businesses wishing to expand their enterprises will be eligible to receive a range of special business development incentives, provided that certain conditions are met. These will be in addition to any other incentives the enterprise may be eligible for under other assistance programs established to encourage business development in the Province.

To qualify for the special incentives, an enterprise must meet the following tests:

• The proposed new business activity must have the potential to bring substantial new or expanded business investment and employment to the Province.  Only those projects involving capital investments of at least $500,000 and having the potential to generate incremental annual sales of $1.0 million, as well as creating and maintaining at least 10 full time permanent jobs in the Province, may apply to Government for access to the special incentives.
• The proposed new business activity must be consistent with the objectives for economic development that are embodied in the Strategic Economic Plan.
• Reasonable assurances must be available to demonstrate that the proposed new business activity, in the absence of the special incentives, would not otherwise be pursued in the Province. This test is intended to ensure that incremental economic activity will be stimulated by the new incentives.
• The proposed new business activity must not be directly competitive with or have an adverse impact on the viability of other businesses already established in the Province.   This will ensure that existing business enterprises will not be placed at a competitive disadvantage relative to those companies and investors who are able to take advantage of the new incentives.
• The proposed new business activity must have the potential to generate substantial value-added economic benefit to the Province.

Both new businesses and existing businesses expanding their operations will be eligible for the special incentives. However, in the case of existing businesses, only those elements of a company's operation which are incremental to its existing scale of operation will be eligible for the incentives.

3.2      Review and Approval Process

Companies seeking the special incentives available through the new legislation will be required to provide documentation in the form of a comprehensive business plan to allow for a thorough assessment of its proposal. The specific requirements in this regard will be outlined fully in the legislation.

Particular attention will be given during the review process to the commercial viability of the proposed business activity over the long term. It is not the intent of the legislation to artificially support new industries or new business activity in the Province, but rather to attract and assist in the development of viable and sustainable economic enterprises and employment opportunities for the long term benefit of the people of this Province.

All applications received under the new legislation will be reviewed by a committee of Cabinet Ministers chaired by the Minister of Industry, Trade and Technology, with final decisions on eligibility to be made by Cabinet. Part of the process in making a determination as to whether or not the special incentives will be granted to a company will involve a public notice procedure whereby Government will invite interested parties to make submissions respecting all proposals received. This is intended to ensure that all proposals are available for public scrutiny in respect of their potential competitive impact on existing business enterprises and jobs. Appropriate steps will be taken to protect the proprietary and commercial interests of the company when this public notice procedure is invoked.

While all proposals made to Government under the new legislation will be thoroughly assessed to protect the general public interest, Government is committed to a timely review process such that potential investors are not unduly delayed in the implementation of their business plans. Once the committee of Cabinet Ministers is satisfied that it has all the information it considers necessary to properly evaluate a proposal, a decision will be rendered by Cabinet on acceptance or otherwise of a company's proposal within 60 days.

Successful companies will be expected to enter into a formal contract with Government in which the Province will guarantee the benefits provided in the new legislation and the company will bind itself to implement the business proposal as accepted by Government. Notification will subsequently be given to the House of Assembly of all such contracts entered into, and ongoing monitoring of their terms and conditions will be carried out by senior officials.

3.3      Incentives Available through the Legislation

3.3.1    Taxation Incentives

The private sector is presently faced with a relatively high burden of taxation which impedes new investment and the creation of new employment opportunities in the Province. While a number of significant changes to the existing business tax structure have been made by Government in a number of areas in recent years, the entire taxation regime requires further attention if it is to be used as a means of promoting the Province as a highly competitive location in which to do business. Accordingly, the following taxation incentives are proposed for those companies qualifying for assistance under the new legislation:

(i) A full tax free holiday for ten years in respect of provincial corporate income tax, the health and post-secondary education "payroll" tax, and retail sales tax.

(ii) Further relief in these specific tax areas for an additional five year period on a reduced scale, commencing in the first year at 80% of total taxes payable and declining by a factor of 20% each year thereafter.

Municipalities will also be given the necessary legislative authority to grant full property and business tax exemptions on the same basis as outlined in (i) and (ii) above with a majority vote of the respective municipal council. At present, municipalities do not have the legislative flexibility to offer tax relief to individual companies to the extent contemplated herein.

3.3.2    Productivity Incentive

All new and expanding business enterprises experience a significant "learning curve" during the formative years of their operation. Part of this process inevitably results in a productivity "loss" that is incurred by the company at all levels in the organization.

To offset part of this productivity "cost", the Province will provide financial assistance to new and expanding business enterprises in an amount of $2,000 for each full time job created in the Province during its initial five year operating period where the company employs a resident of the Province to permanently occupy the job from the time of its creation.

Appropriate provisions will be included in the legislation to protect the pubic interest in the event of failure by a company to fulfil the conditions upon which the productivity incentive has been granted.

3.3.3    Labour Relations Incentives

A new approach to labour-management relations is required to attract new investment and stimulate new business enterprises in the Province. Government remains fully committed to ensuring that adequate safeguards are in place to protect the legitimate interests of employees and unions. However, it is in the broader public interest to achieve this objective in a balanced manner that also assures those who wish to make new business investments and provide economic opportunity in the Province have a reasonable prospect of receiving an acceptable level of return on their investment without undue risk from uncertain labour relations conditions.

Pursuant to a commitment made in the Strategic Economic Plan, Government is presently developing a comprehensive consultation document which will address various concerns respecting the general labour relations regime in the Province. While the intent will be to develop consensus on changes necessary to make the general labour climate more favourable for all businesses, Government believes that extraordinary measures are required beyond this if new business   enterprises   are   to   be   stimulated   in   the   increasingly competitive global economy.

Government's proposal in this regard is to make available different Labour Relations Act provisions to new enterprises wishing to establish in the Province and to do so in a manner that will not affect the application of current labour legislation to existing businesses. As well, any existing business where a bargaining agent has been certified for the employees of that company prior to the time it wishes to expand and take advantage of the special incentives under the new legislation will not be eligible for the labour relations provisions of the legislation. Considerable difficulty from a number of perspectives would be encountered in applying two different labour relations regimes to a single business operation, as one firm could have two separate collective bargaining processes, labour contracts and wage rates applying to employees doing the same kind of work. Accordingly, the labour relations provisions of the new legislation will apply to new business start-ups only.

The main  features of the proposed  new labour relations provisions are as follows:

a.  All collective agreements entered into between a company and the bargaining agent for the employees will remain in force for a period of at least five years, unless the contract entered into between the Province and the company in respect of the business undertaking as a whole expires in a period of less than five years.

b.  In circumstances where a company and a bargaining agent engage in collective bargaining but are unable to reach a collective   agreement,   a   special   panel   consisting   of   a representative   appointed   by   each   of  the   parties   and   a chairperson appointed by the Minister of Employment and Labour Relations will establish a collective agreement by addressing those specific matters in dispute at the time the matter is referred to the panel.

c.  Where a company and a bargaining agent are unable to conclude a collective agreement and the matters in dispute are referred to a panel, the company will not be permitted to lock-out the employees and the employees will not be permitted to strike.

d.  A panel, in concluding a collective agreement, will take into account the following factors:

(i) the overall policy objective of the new legislation which is to create conditions favourable to the establishment of new businesses and the expansion of existing businesses in the Province (this factor will be given paramount consideration by the panel);

(ii) the effect of the agreement on the profitability of the business;

(iii) the terms and conditions of employment of employees in occupations in the same or similar businesses both within and outside the Province, with consideration to be given to geographic, industrial, economic, social and other variations that the panel considers relevant;

(iv) the need to establish terms and conditions of employment that are fair and reasonable in relation to the qualifications required, the work performed, the responsibility assumed and the nature of the service provided; and

(v)      the needs of the employer for qualified employees.

e.  An agreement concluded by a panel will be binding on all parties.

f.  The panel will be required to conclude an agreement no later than 90 days after disputes are referred to it for resolution.

g.  Every collective agreement entered into between a bargaining agent and a company, including an agreement concluded by a panel, will contain provisions:

(i) requiring the application of progressive work practices in the work place including the use of composite crews;

(ii) relating to wages and to wage increases of employees during the term of the agreement, but those increases will not be permitted to exceed the percentage rise in the consumer price index as reported by Statistics Canada for that area; and

(iii) respecting the final and binding resolution of disputes without work stoppage.
Notwithstanding the provisions outlined above, where a company and a bargaining agent both agree that it would not be in their collective interest to apply the labour relations provisions of the new legislation in its entirety or in part, then those provisions will not apply to the parties concerned. Similarly, in circumstances where a panel has concluded a collective agreement, the parties concerned may, where they mutually agree, vary any term or condition the panel has applied, provided that such agreement does not offend other applicable provisions of the new labour relations regime.

3.3.4    Access to Crown Land

Crown land that a company may require to implement its business plan as approved by Government will be leased to the company for a nominal sum of $1.00.

3.3.5    Appointment of a Facilitator

Upon the request of a company, Government may appoint a person, either from within or outside of Government, to assist the company in obtaining governmental permits, licenses, options for use of Crown assets, and any other authorizations that the company may be required to obtain in connection with its business. This will expedite the processing of all applications for regulatory approval of the business plan and thereby allow the business plan to be implemented in a timely manner. The responsibility for actual decision-making in these areas will, however, remain with the appropriate regulatory agency.

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Forever blowing bubbles

We are in a bubble. I think we are in a protected bubble.

That’s Danny Williams making a few observations at the close of the most recent session of the provincial legislature.

It’s not the first time Williams talked about bubbles.  He said the same thing in October 2008 as the world headed into the worst recession since the Great Depression in the 1930s:

We now, for the first time in our lives, are in a bit of a financial bubble and that's a wonderful thing. We have that protection and the people of this province got the support of the provincial government

Williams even claimed during that call to a radio open line show that “[h]opefully our [budget] surpluses will continue, hopefully they'll get even larger, it will enable us to do the things that we've been doing. I mean this, for us this hasn't happened overnight. We've been preparing for this.”

Then the talk of surpluses and bubbles disappeared. 

You see, bubbles are wonderful things,  all pretty and shimmery in the sunlight.

But bubbles are flimsy and insubstantial.

Bubbles have a distressing tendency to burst.

And in the case of the Williams economic bubble, the whole thing burst quite spectacularly.  The provincial gross domestic product dropped 22% in 2009, or 10.2% in real terms as RBC assessed it. Deficit spending became the new order not just for the day but for the years to come and cabinet ministers openly admitted provincial government spending was unsustainable.

Now for those reasons alone it was nothing short of bizarre to see Williams return to the complete nonsense that somehow the province – let alone the provincial government – had emerged from the recession safely wrapped in some sort of bubble. It was even more bizarre to see Williams repeating this line:

However, when I look at what is happening here in Newfoundland and Labrador, the fact that we do have our debt reduced,…

It’s bizarre because it simply isn’t true.  The total public sector liabilities remain as high in 2009 as they were at just about any point in the last five years.  Even the net debt – government’s favourite misleading measure – increased as the 2009 cash shortfall sucked up a half billion dollars of cash the government had laying about and which had previously been used to offset government’s liabilities, even if only paper.

Williams went even beyond those crazy remarks, claiming that the previously unfunded pension liabilities had been addressed.  Of course, that isn’t correct either.  As Budget 2010 forecasts, the unfunded pension liabilities will increase in the current fiscal year just as the net debt will increase.

So aside from a decidedly unhealthy dose of self-delusion, it’s pretty hard to tell what the Premier was getting on with in the House of assembly only a month or so ago.

The prospect of a second and prolonged recession  - widely discussed for some weeks now – only makes the premier’s claims that much harder to fathom. If the United States economy slows down again, then the Newfoundland and Labrador economy will follow suit.  Williams’ own economic policies have seen to that.

If economist George Athanassakos turns out to be right, things in Newfoundland and Labrador could be even worse:

Economies are still extremely vulnerable to speculative bubbles and dips and increased volatility. The panic of 2008 and the subsequent rescue packages did not provide the necessary catharsis that recessions bring to economies. Demand for broader reforms has also waned as a result of the rescue of the economy from the panic of 2008. If this were not enough, economies have become addicted to low interest rates and to liquidity infusions.

Rather than being protected by a bubble, Newfoundland and Labrador may be more vulnerable to a second economic downturn than other parts of the western world. First of all, more and more of the local economy under the Williams administration is based on unsustainable public sector spending.*  Second of all, the metro St. John’s area housing explosion  - even as it subsides – has been built on public sector spending coupled with low interest rate policies. A second recession will likely kill both of those simultaneously.

Incidentally, the most recent figures from Statistics Canada suggest that the construction boom in Newfoundland and Labrador isn’t a commercial one. 

Investment in all categories of non-residential building construction peaked in mid to late 2008 and declined steadily in 2009 until it flattened for the past three quarters.  The pattern shows up in the total provincial number (the long red line on top) as well as in the St. John’s-only line (the blue long line with diamond shaped data points)

Even as spending on the Vale Long Harbour project, Hibernia South and Hebron ramp up in 2012, they won’t be able to offset a decline through all other sectors of the economy. And that’s even allowing that oil prices don’t drop thereby putting development of Hebron in some doubt.

The forest industry is a pale shadow of what it was even a half dozen years ago.  The fishery is mired in restructuring talks. In any event, the industry is woefully short of the capital investment needed to sustain itself let alone retool for global competition. Destroying Fishery Products International and selling off its most useful and lucrative assets will prove to be one of several catastrophic policy failures of the current administration.

Mining may be doing reasonably well in the year ahead, but a second global recession will also adversely affect commodity prices.  Even if oil prices remain at current levels, declining production over the next two to three years will reduce government revenues significantly.

Meanwhile, provincial government cash deficits in 2010 and again in 2011 would rapidly eat up whatever cash reserves are on hand. A significant economic downturn through the latter half of 2010 and into the 2011 election could force the government into a difficult financial position likely meaning spending cuts and wage freezes.

The province is not protected by a bubble.  It is subject to the same forces that affect the rest of the world. Far from insulating the provincial economy from global forces, government policy has left the province in a more precarious position than it has been in two decades.

That’s the thing about bubbles.  Like delusions, they have a tendency to burst in the most unsettling way imaginable.

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* The growth in the provincial public service in recent years is not just a relative growth owing to a decline in other sectors, like forestry. From labradore:

In the past decade, the absolute numbers of people in NL who work in the provincial public sector — the provincial civil service, public health care, social service, and education system, and public post-secondary education institutions — has increased by 35%.  Not only is that the largest increase, start to finish, of any of the ten provinces, for most of the decade, NL has topped the chart in terms of the growth rate. And, starting in 2006, that growth curve spiked steeply upwards, with annualized growth of up to seven percent per year, unmatched by any other province except, starting in the second half of 2008, Prince Edward Island. [Emphasis added]

The Fragile Economy: hard numbers

As labradore has been putting it in a series of posts, the provincial public service in the first half of 2010 comprises 53,780 people working directly for the provincial government, the university and public colleges, health care authorities and public school boards.

That works out to 26.2% of the working people of the province.  That’s double the comparable percentage for all 10 provinces.

And here’s the truly unsettling bit:

In the thirty years in which Statistics Canada has measured public sector employment, the percentage of employed people in Newfoundland and Labrador labour force who are employed in the provincial public sector has never been this high.

Those 53,780 comprise 21% of the entire labour force and, once again, that’s the highest this percentage has been in the three decades that Statistics Canada has been measuring public sector employment.

And they make up about 10% of the entire population of the province.

That’s a pretty sharp contrast to the talk in 2004.  As CBC reported, Danny Williams’ first budget forecast a cut of 4,000 public service positions.  By 2005, that planned cut disappeared. The planned cuts have evidently been replaced with a pretty hefty hiring plan.

Now if the private sector had grown at a similar or greater pace, there wouldn’t be so cause for concern.  As the job numbers show, though, the proportion of the labour force employed in the public sector has grown to an amazing level. in some regions of the province – like, say, Grand Falls-Windsor -  the provincial public service is the major employer.

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The energy hub and the loose wheel

Summertime is the season when politicians get to travel.

For example, take the annual meeting of governors from the New England states and premiers from the six eastern Canadian provinces.  They got together from July 11 to 13 in Massachusetts for a series of meetings. 

Not much came out of the meetings  - there were a couple of initiatives they all agreed to implement  but then again, these things are seldom about solving big issues.  You can get an excellent sense of how little of substance ever gets done at these meetings by taking a look at the rather vague news release from the Premier’s Office on the meetings. And if that isn’t enough, look at the equally vacuous collection of scripted quotes issued by the four Atlantic Canadian premiers.  One of them, incidentally wasn’t even at the meeting, but he did get included in the quote-fest.

Much like trade shows, these sorts of big meetings are not the places to cut deals.  They are the places to sign deals worked out well in advance.

For example, Maine and Nova Scotia signed an agreement during the meetings to work jointly on development of ocean energy.  That’s tidal power or wave power.

New Brunswick premier Shawn Graham even got a public endorsement from three New England governors for the proposed second nuclear reactor in new Brunswick. The governors of Maine, Rhode Island and Vermont support Lepreau 2.  In fact, Rhode Island Governor Donald Carcieri thinks that nuclear energy must be part of the mix for the region’s future energy supply.

Heck, even away from the conference regional energy deals are in the news. Nova Scotia Power and New Brunswick Power are working a deal on the 4200 million intertie upgrade Bond Papers mentioned last week. Daewoo will be building a wind turbine manufacturing plant in Nova Scotia, as well.

Conspicuously absent from all this concrete talk of energy deals is the place its own premier now describes as “a significant energy player” in North America. 

Not energy hub.  That job is now taken by New Brunswick.

No longer an energy warehouse.

Just a player, albeit a supposedly significant one, whatever that means.

The only specific reference to a project or initiative in Danny Williams vague news release was to the Lower Churchill.  As readers of this space know, this project is now pretty much dead in the water.  Mo markets, no money and  - especially at an estimated cost $14 billion and counting - no sign of anyone willing to underwrite the whole thing. It is now obviously what it always has been all along:  a mere political prop.

That’s what comes of putting every egg into a single basket. While other jurisdictions are allowing many different ideas to move simultaneously, the current administration in Newfoundland and Labrador is sitting as an obstacle to innovation. It’s obsession with a single megaproject  - laid down in the official energy policy itself - prevents other ideas from getting any serious consideration.

Newfoundland and Labrador is being rapidly left behind in energy development.  Despite abundant energy, a skilled work force and ample resources, new energy developments are happening somewhere else. Compare Grand Falls-Windsor to Trenton, Nova Scotia, for instance.  The wind turbine plant is expected to employ 120 in its first year and upwards of 400 at peak. What’s likely to happen any time soon in the central Newfoundland town?

The Maritime provinces are becoming an energy hub.  Newfoundland and Labrador is looking more and more like the loose economic development wheel.

The cause is flawed policy.

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Economic recovery – not exactly as illustrated, part two

cbc.ca/nl is reporting an economic miracle in Grand Falls-Windsor.

That’s the town where the major private sector employer closed its doors and where the provincial government expropriated the mill and hydroelectric assets.

When AbitibiBowater stopped production at the mill in early 2009 there were concerns the town's economy would tank, but that hasn't happened.

This time last year, construction was started on 16 houses in Grand Falls-Windsor, but by this June, work had begun on 60 new homes in the town.

There’s even a comment in the electronic version of the story, the one that aired on the supper hour news, to the effect that uncertainty about the mill kept a lid on development.  Now that things are resolved, as it were, then people are now spending freely.

Well, that’s exactly the same sort of story the Telegram carried back in February;  but then, as now, the story looks more like a contrived bit of nonsense rather than a factual appraisal.

Take for example, the thing about housing and a supposed dampening effect before the mill close din early 2009.

As the Telly reported in February,  there were 118 housing starts in Grand Falls-Windsor in 2008, but only 50 in all of 2009.  You can get links to the Telly story and other details in the Bond Papers post from February.

Based on that, the current number of housing starts in 2010 is only 20% above the 2009 level. And even if the housing starts continued at the same pace and there were another 60 houses built in the second half of the year, that would only match the last year the mill operated.

That wouldn’t be too bad, if it turns out to be correct.  But it sure as heck is a far cry from the idea that people are thinking differently now that the fate of the mill is known.

The potential cause for the resurgence  - such as it is -  can be found in the sources of cash identified in the CBC story:

The town's hospital — the Central Newfoundland Regional Health Centre — is the community's largest employer. It serves people from dozens of communities in central Newfoundland who spend money in Grand Falls-Windsor when they come for health care.

You can add to that a bunch of other government offices moved into to the town under Brian Tobin’s administration and more recently by the Williams’ one.  In other words, the town is now dependent on government spending for its major economic activity. 

And what isn’t coming from government is coming from migrant labour.  That would be former mill workers who are commuting to places like Alberta.

And lastly there’s another source of growth:  retirees flocking home after a lifetime spent working on the mainland.  Nice as that is, those retirees only add to the burden of an economy where there are fewer and fewer people earning a wage compared to those in the so-called dependent portion of the population.

If you look at it, what you see in Grand Falls-Windsor is not the picture of some sort of miracle but rather of the increasingly fragile nature of the Newfoundland and Labrador economy. No amount of spin from a local car salesman can cover over the very real problems that fragility brings for a beautiful community and for the province as a whole.

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Audio Update:  CBC Central Morning Show.  Look at around 6:54 for the start.  The intro to one section repeats the “housing boom” – complete with the 16 to 59 numbers -  evidently because someone forgot to do a simple check of the facts.

The harsh reality

While someone in the provincial government may have decided that an estimated population increase of 96 people was something to crow about, surely there is more good news than just that.

Why of course there is, as the new release writer tells us, via a quote from the minister involved:

For seven successive quarters now, there has been a net inflow of people to the province,” said the Honourable Tom Marshall, Minister of Finance and President of Treasury Board. “This sustained gain is encouraging, and an indication that more people recognize and have confidence in the opportunities offered in Newfoundland and Labrador.”

Sure enough, if you take the Statistics Canada numbers and graph them you will see what appears to be a net increase in population over time.

As the chart shows, there has been net growth overall  - not just in migration flow - in the last four quarters.
But just take a look at the drop from the third quarter in 2005;  10,000 fewer in the province by the middle of 2007 compared to two years earlier.  Since then the gains have been generally more modest each quarter.

Still, it’s an upward trend and those loyal to the cause will surely take that as a good thing.

Before you get too happy, though, try graphing the change in the population each quarter compared to the one previous to it.  You’ll get something that looks like this:
Here you’ll find something decidedly less comforting. Not only has there been a net loss in population over time, you can notice that there has been a rather precipitous drop in the rate of increase over the last three quarters.  in other words, while the population is going up each quarter, it is going by less and less.  First it was about 1350 or so in the second and third quarter of last year, then 533 and then a mere 96 for the first quarter of 2010.

That’s pretty much what you’ll see in the big chart of population, by the way.  Think of the most trend as being potentially like a ball thrown into the air: it goes higher and higher  but as it runs out of energy, it  climbs less and less.  Then at a point, gravity becomes the dominant force and down she comes again.

Now that may not be what is going on here, but odds are the net growth in population due to people coming here will start slowing.  The growth from the middle of 2007 onwards was due entirely to Newfoundlanders and Labradorians returning home as the first casualties of an impending recession.  Think of them as canaries in a coal mine.

Except for a big drop in early 2009, the population has been going up as the recession took hold nationally.  Stimulus spending took a while to work into the economy so there isn’t a perfect match between the local population and the deepening of the recession.  Overall though it’s a bit hard to mistake the connection between the recession on the one hand and the local growth in population.

And don’t forget, either, that the local economy actually shrank here by 10% last year.  If it wasn’t for the massive government infrastructure spending, things would have been much more bleak.  That public money continues to flow this year and  has already been credited with driving a huge chunk of the economic growth. 

It’s not like the province is an Alberta-like hotbed of private sector investment, no matter how much the provincial would like you to think otherwise.

So if things are actually getting better elsewhere, it would only make sense that the local population growth would slow down.  Don’t be surprised if the population starts to drop again within the next two quarters.

On the other hand, pay attention to the news.  If we are looking at a “w”-shaped recession – that is if there’s another slowdown – the population will jump up again.

And just to keep all this in perspective, take a look at an opinion piece in this weekend’s National Post.  The subject is Alberta.  Note the similarity in the situation there and here:

Last week, for instance, the government crowed that it had nearly demolished the projections for the 2009-10 deficit, overspending by just $1-billion instead of the nearly $5-billion expected. The reason, however, was due to higher-than-expected royalty revenues from the oil sands, and not more careful fiscal management in Edmonton, where spending continues to swell. This year's projected deficit is still heading toward breaking red-ink records, unless serendipity again intervenes.

There are other economic indicators to examine, as the Post piece notes, but just think about what it means when a provincial government crows about a net growth in population of a mere 96 people after a loss of 10,000 in two years.

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When the quota of good news meets a failure to perform

The provincial government’s business department issued a news release today crowing about an estimated increase of the province’s population by a mere 96 people.

To see the business department’s stunning record of success to date, check out the list of news releases for 2010 or read about the fragile economy.

What will they say when the recovery sets in and outmigration resumes once more?

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The Fragile Economy confirmed

BMO Capital Markets lays out the scope of the problem:

Newfoundland & Labrador [sic] saw a sharp 10.2% real GDP contraction in 2009, the worst performance in Canada. However, improvement in the mining sector and a reversal of some temporary factors will drive 4% growth in 2010 and solid 2.8% growth in 2011.

Problem? sez you, wiping the purple freshie from your lips. 

Growth returns. 

Here’s the problem:

However, the biggest economic driver in the province in the next two years will be construction activity. Government infrastructure spending will total about $1 bln in FY2010/11, helping boost total
capital spending an expected 23% in 2010. Provincial government infrastructure spending will amount to more than $5 bln over the next several years, keeping the economic fuel burning into 2011. At more than 3% of GDP, the Province’s infrastructure program is among
the largest in Canada relative to the size of the economy.

It is definitely not good when the public sector is driving the economy to such a degree.

And as for all the rosiness in BMO’s outlook. 

Well, let’s just say they obviously haven’t done any detailed analysis of the local economy especially if they think the recent population growth is driven by anything other than migrant labourers returning home from other parts of the country.

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