Fraser Institute, National Newswatch, and other fools #nlpoli

If the issue wasn't so serious, it would be funny.

Newfoundland and Labrador is up the financial creek, according to Charles Lammam, an analyst with the Fraser Institute,  in a new opinion piece with a couple of his colleagues..  The cause is excessive government spending.  "Had the government restricted program spending increases since 2004/05 to the combined rate of inflation and population growth, Newfoundland & Labrador would now have a small surplus, not a large deficit."

The fundamental problem with Newfoundland and Labrador’s approach to public finances over the last decade is that the government increased spending during the good times as though they would never end. When resource prices ultimately fell, the province found itself at an unsustainable spending level.

You certainly won't get any argument from this corner about those observations.

The problem is that over the last decade, Lammam and the rest of the folks at the Fraser Institute have consistently told us that Danny Williams and Kathy Dunderdale  were the finest financial managers in the country among the provincial premiers.  That's significant because they are the premiers during the period when Lammam now says the government was spending way too much.  The two ideas don't fit together.

It's not as though we suddenly learned things we didn't know at any point over the past decade.  Some of us have been criticising the excessive increase in spending by the provincial Conservatives since 2006.  By the time we got to 2009,  Williams had admitted government spending was unsustainable. Dunderdale admitted the same thing every year she was in office.  It's not like the folks at the Fraser Institute could have missed the repeated admissions of fiscal mismanagement.

Yet they did.

Which Fraser Insitute conclusion should be accept?

Neither.

The Fraser Institute has produced such laughable "analysis" of Newfoundland and Labrador over such a long period of time that we can only conclude their most recent observations are a fluke.   What we should do is be extremely wary of pronouncements from folks like Fraser who can look at the same data and come to diametrically opposed conclusions.  There's a fairly obvious problem with the way they do their analysis.

And anyone pretends to be a psychic forecaster who says "never saw that coming" is someone we should just laugh at.

-srbp-

This is a revised version.  The original incorrectly identified the National Post as the source of the Lammam opinion piece

Let's hear it for the Fraser Institute geniuses #nlpoli

A year after Kathy Dunderdale left office, the Fraser Institute said she was one of the best fiscal managers of all the Premiers in Canada.

Provincial Conservatives repeated the story anywhere and everywhere they could, just as they had done the other time the Fraser Institute said Kathy was a financial genius.

Sound fiscal management was a big thing for the crowd that just finished up their latest term running the place.  Danny Williams listed “sound fiscal management” as one of his big promises when he announced his first cabinet.

In his first budget speech,  Conservative finance minister Loyola Sullivan reminded everyone of the promises he and his colleagues made in the 2003 election.

Prior to and during the election, we outlined a number of commitments to the people of Newfoundland and Labrador. I would like to focus today on three major commitments: 

First, to balance the Budget on a cash basis in four years and restore sound fiscal management; 

Second, to expand the economy and create jobs; and 

Third, to ensure that our health and education systems meet the needs of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians and are sustainable into the future.

In hindsight, it all looks like some kind of sick joke.  And it would be finny too if we all weren’t the ones living through the awful truth of just how badly wrong the Fraser Institute and all the rest of them were.

The Fraser Institute and Laughably Flawed Analysis #nlpoli

The latest Fraser Institute assessment of the financial management prowess of premiers is to sound economic analysis what homeopathy to curing cancer.

The Fraser Institute issued a news release on the first anniversary of Kathy Dunderdale’s departure from politics that declared her the best fiscal manager of all the country’s premiers. 

That wasn’t sarcasm.

That’s what they said.

Conservative Misinformation and the Public Sector Debt Problem #nlpoli

There is no limit to how selectively provincial Conservatives will read a document in order to find some microscopic filament that might possibly confirm that they have really been running the most magnificent administration in the history of the galaxy.

They still insist, for example,  that they are the tops in leadership and accountability even though the most recent poll shows that 77% of the people in the province don’t think so.

Conservatives also insist they have done financial miracles.  No less a personage than the party’s vice president took to the Twitter on Monday to tell everyone that:

According to Fraser Institute, SK and NL are the only provinces that reduced their public debt since 2007.

Well,  they said a lot more than that,  but evidently Mark Whiffen and didn’t need to read anything but that. Since the rest of us are not obliged or inclined to such delusions,  let’s see what the gang at the Fraser Institute actually said.

Who’d a thunk it? #nlpoli #cdnpoli

There is something truly frigged up in a world where the Premier who has admitted to fiscal mismanagement by she and her colleagues for years and hasn’t done anything to correct the problem can be named the best fiscal manager among provincial Premier’s in Canada.

In her current budget, Kathy Dunderdale calls for a billion dollar cash shortfall.

And the Fraser Institute wasn’t being sarcastic when they issued a news release that began with these word’s:

Premier Kathy Dunderdale of Newfoundland and Labrador has governed with the best fiscal policy among 10 provincial premiers, according to a new report released today by the Fraser Institute, Canada’s leading public policy think-tank.

Clearly, Canada’s leading public policy think-tank has some serious thinking to do.

Manitoba tops for oil/gas investment in Canada

A Fraser Institute survey of 577 senior executives in the oil and gas industry shows Manitoba as the preferred Canadian jurisdiction for oil and gas investment.

The survey ranked 143 jurisdictions across the globe:

Manitoba is No. 21 on the list of 143 regions, while Saskatchewan has fallen from the 10th spot (out of 81 regions represented) in 2008 to 38th in 2009. Meanwhile, Nova Scotia was No. 54, Ontario was 60, Quebec 68, British Columbia 71, Newfoundland and Labrador 82 and Alberta 92.

 

-srbp-