Humber West post mortem

Granter won. 

Watton lost.

Myers came a distant third.

Tories held the seat and they still do.

That’s the simple result and for the truly simple, that’s all they will see:  no change.

Take a deeper look, though, and  you have a really interesting set of results. The figures used in this post are from Elections Newfoundland and Labrador’s website.

Over the three Danny elections, he polled an average of 3728 votes.  In the 2001 by-election, Williams polled 3606.  In 2003, Williams polled 3823 and in 2007, he actually polled fewer votes:  3755.

Vaughn Granter polled 2109 votes.  That’s 56% of Danny’s average over three elections.  He took 63% of the turnout but consider that Granter left home almost one Tory vote for every Tory vote he got.

Of course, it wasn’t Granter who left them home although the results suggest this was not any great endorsement of the local high school principal.  This by-election was really about Tom Marshall, Danny’s West Coast organizer.  Marshall campaigned hard for Granter, right down to an attack on ACAP debate organizers and their integrity.  And then there was the curious decision to leave the Premier home and bring out Danny Williams for some last minute campaigning. 

But still, for all that the Tories only managed to get 56% of Danny’s vote to the polls.
Meanwhile, Liberal Mark Watton garnered 1097 votes in his first time out.  That’s actually larger than the three-election average of 1088. The Liberals turned out 79% of the average for 2001 and 2003, their best results during the Danny Williams period.

Turnout was also down, coming in at  slightly less than 40%.  Turnout in the two general elections and the 2001 were – chronologically – 53%, 61% and 60%.

So sure, on the surface things look the same now as they did last December as far as seat count goes.

Just below the surface, though, lots of things seem to be changing.

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Kremlinology 32: the St. Valentine’s Day Massacre

Since 1949, not a single Premier has left office and then come back later to campaign on behalf of a by-election candidate for his party while his party was still in power.

Not one.

Once they resigned, they were gone.

They handed over the keys to the eight floor washroom and buggered off to the sun or the Wet Coast or whatever they were up to after quitting.

But not the Old Man.

In Humber West, the Conservatives under the curious leadership style of Kathy Dunderdale flew Danny Williams out to campaign for their hand-picked candidate.

Vaughn Granter seems to be having some tough sledding in the by-election in Williams’ old seat.  Granter is usually seen practically running from door to door, bundled up against the cold like some blue-clad moustachioed gnome.  CBC’s Doug Greer caught Granter on one portion of his frenzied campaign and heard yet again about Granter’s extensive experience in dealing with parents and students.  This is not surprising since Granter is a teacher but it does not logically follow that a high school principal is a natural community leader ready to step into the shoes vacated by one Danny Williams, Q.C (Quixotic Conservative).

Hisself’s sudden appearance smells of concern in the Connie bunker about Granter’s chances. Put that with Tom Marshall’s appearance on open line trying to claim the environmental debate his candidate buggered was somehow tainted.  Then add Tom’s unexplained cancellation of a budget consultation on polling day and you have some pretty solid clues that all is not well with Danny’s legacy in Corner Brook.

The fact that Danny tried to claim the seat is still his – he left it vacant on December 3 – seems all the more curious.  What really demolished any lingering doubts about Granter’s current status on the leaderboard was Danny’s use of The Phrase:  “Nothing could be further from the truth” to deny troubles for the provincial Tories in the mill town. More often than not that phrase used to signal that one could not be, in fact, any closer to the truth.

Danny’s sudden appearance in Humber West may do more than signal Vaughn Granter’s in trouble and may lose the by-election.

His appearance suggests Kathy is not up to the job or, much worse, that maybe she is merely the premier for show.  The real leader had to come out of hiding to finish the job for his ersatz replacement.  On the face of it, one can easily think that Dunderdale and her entire team can’t win a by-election in a supposedly safe seat without Danny.  You have to wonder why. 

One must also wonder why Kathy Dunderdale spent so little time campaigning in Corner brook.  Dunderdale did make a brief appearance in the campaign early on and a couple of cabinet ministers showed up.  For the most part, though, Kathy hasn’t been out running around with the candidate she wants in the House with her.  She hasn’t even been heard talking him up all that much.  What gives with that?

In a manner of speaking, Hisself’s sun-tanned appearance is a bit like taking a Tommy gun to Kathy Dunderdale’s leadership.  He’s shot it full of holes. 

If Mark Watton wins on polling day or even comes a decent second, people around the province will start to wonder about her her ability to lead the party and the province.  Sure the faithful and the pitcher plants will cheer and pretend all is well.  But  among the politicians and the politically inclined, the view may be decidedly different. 

There may well be questions about Dunderdale’s ability to do the job.  In a caucus where her leadership does not have deepest of deep support, there could be a move to replace her before she gets to wear the crown officially.  Political parties in Newfoundland and Labrador aren’t known for their internal stability when unfettered ambition smells the stink of weak, ineffectual leadership.

Just think of it this way:  unless Vaughn Granter blows Mark Watton into dust at the polls, Danny’s trip to Corner Brook will be seen as the St. Valentine’s Day massacre of Kathy Dunderdale’s political credibility and maybe her career.

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Signs of the Granterdannerung #hwblxn

First Danny Williams emerges from his hiding place to campaign in Corner Brook on behalf of the hand-picked Conservative candidate in Humber West.

Then Tom Marshall suddenly  - and for no apparent reason – cancels his budget consultation in Goose Bay originally set for polling day in Humber West.

No weather excuses.

No real explanations at all.

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Twitter or Huckster? Political uses of social media

Front page of the Telegram with a glorious picture. 

Way better advertising than he could ever buy with cash and Steve Kent nailed it.

Of course, Steve Kent is one thing above anything else:  a marketer.  He knows how to sell you something and the commodity he sells best his himself.  You can tell Steve Kent is good at it because he has done very well for himself in a relatively short period of time.

You can also tell because he uses the textbook lines to describe his interest in social media:

Twitter is really about having a dialogue. It’s about engaging people in conversation and it’s not just another approach to communicating messages in the traditional sense

The front page Telegram story would have you believe that Kent is a keen political trendsetter using social media like Twitter in order to “have ‘more human’ interactions with his constituents.”

Here is an example of those “more human” interactions, the dialogue, the conversations:

-  The Provincial Government is investing $2 million so schools across Newfoundland and Labrador can receive 1,450...

-  Storm has started, but dinner theatre is a go at Reid Centre for @mount_pearl Frosty Festival!

There’s some stuff about a pothole and a flat tire, lots of repeating of other people’s messages – called re-tweeting – and a few sports scores. Not very deep or detailed and all pretty pedestrian stuff.  If this is “more human”, then you’d hate to see the other “interactions.”

Still, good on Kent for going with this sort of thing.  He’s not alone;  he might be the only provincial politician to embrace twitter professionally but there are plenty of others out there.  Most locally tend to use Twitter this way:  very sterile and pretty much for putting on the official face.

Not all of them are like that, though.  Take Tony Clement, the federal cabinet minister.  this guy is on Twitter and he and his personality are right there.

And these guys are distinctly different from other high-profile people who are using Twitter.  News media types are especially notable for just putting themselves and their distinctive personalities out there for people to take or leave as they see fit. They don’t just tweet news or mundane lines teasing up a story on the conventional media for television or radio. Sports, movies, personal comments, jokes are all as much part of the twitter mix as something about what stories they are working on. Two that come easily to mind are Kady O’Malley from CBC Ottawa and David Cochrane, CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in  from Newfoundland and Labrador.

The contrast between the pols and the media is night and day.  One is carefully packaged and guarded, by and large, while the other is more natural.  Guess which one better reflects the online, social media world? 

Yeah.

It’s the news media types.  They have no less at risk than the pols but the ones who are using successfully have come to understand that a key part of their overall success is rooted in them being anything but a coif and a voice. Their personality and their personability has become part of the overall package that draws loyal followers. They aren’t “more human”, they are just human.

Authenticity, it seems, is like sincerity. If you can fake that, you’ve got it made in politics. Odd thing is, most politicians real don’t need to fake either.  Why some do remains a mystery.

Incidentally, it’s interesting to see how Twitter turns up in some election campaigns. In Humber West, Liberal Mark Watton has been using his Twitter feed to push out campaign-related information.  He’s tweeted at least once a day.  Conservative Vaughn Granter tweeted on Sunday but hadn’t done anything with Twitter since Tuesday of last week. The NDP candidate – Rosie Meyers – doesn’t appear to have a Twitter feed.

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Humber West: Mark Watton on CBC Morning Show

The audio is now available online. [mp3]

CBC set this up correctly:  in-studio interviews so that none of the candidates can hear the others’ interviews and then airing them by random draw.  Watton wound up on first.

Mark got the chance to highlight his considerable experience dealing with issues that are important to Newfoundland and Labrador and talk up his connection to the district. 

Then he turned to dealing with issues he’s getting on the doorstep:  housing, concern about pensions and retirement.  The housing one is particularly striking since, as Mark points out, the city is experiencing a housing shortage despite growth. 

Mark nails a number of hard critiques of the current administration  - if housing is so important for the Conservatives it is odd they’ve never raised it in the legislature  - and then and delivers his ballot question cleanly:  do you want a member who speaks for the government or one who speaks for you?

No one can say that voters don’t have a clear choice in Humber West.

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Here’s to hoping…

That all those cabinet ministers and political staffers working hard to take Humber West for Grantered and the Conservatives are not campaigning on the public dime. 

Annual leave or leave without pay.

But campaigning on the public payroll?

Not on.

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Taking the voters for grantered!

Last week Humber West Conservative candidate Vaughn Granter didn’t have the time to discuss issues.

He would need – by his own estimate – a couple of days at least to get up on the issues and that would take time away from his goal of knocking on all the doors in the district before polling day.

Fast forward a week and after he’s been taking a sh*t-knocking from people for his stance, Vaughn is changing his tune.

Here’s one of his recent twitter updates:

Having a great day door-to-door with Ministers Clyde Jackman and Darin King. Enjoying good conversations of all the issues. 8 days to go!

Conversation on the issues?  Given Vaughn’s admission last week he wasn’t up on the issues and that he didn’t have the time to bone up, he must have stood quietly on the door step while Darin and Clyde did all the talking.

Either that or Vaughn’s just good at taking voters for grantered, already,

Ah well.  Time will tell. Voting day is seven days away.

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Environmentally debatable traffic, Jan 31 to February 4

Two stories this week to lighten the mood.

First:  a poster in the Health Sciences Centre announcing an event for February.  Someone crossed out the first “r” as a spelling mistake.  Likely the same person changed the spelling just down the hall to read nook-yoo-lur medicine.

Second:  Surely to merciful jumpin’s Conservative candidate Vaughn Granter did not dismiss Liberal Mark Watton’s experience in the Prime Minister’s Office or a federal cabinet minister’s office as cavalierly as it sounded.

“Some experience”?

“Could be some advantage”?

Could be a disadvantage?

That’s pretty sad for a guy who isn’t from Corner Brook originally who is trying to play himself as the local boy.

Take a listen to the campaign report linked above, by the way and notice that Granter did little besides run down his opponent and talk himself up personally.  Mark Watton, on the other hand, talked sensibly about issues that are actually of concern to the people in the district.

Huge difference.

Anyway, for those who came for the weekly hit parade, here are the week’s top stories as selected by readers.

1. Tweet of the week (early edition)
2. More of the same…
3. Financials key to Lower Churchill
4. Not the best campaign strategy, maybe
5. A Hugh Shea for our time
6. Strings and all
7. The old hum on the Humber
8. PIFO:  newly minted minister in trouble in own district
9. Ronald Harper
10. Finance minister cops to unsustainable spending

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Not the best campaign strategy, maybe

In a city where the environment is a big issue, a chance to speak in a public meeting on environmental issues during a by-election might be a good thing.

Well, especially if you are a candidate.

Lots of people protesting tire burning.  Government conveniently dodges a bullet on the issue right before the writ drops. You promise to be a strong “voice” for constituents.  Might be an idea to show up for a few hours in a debate format, say a few words and then get back to whatever else you are doing.

Even if the audience is hostile, it works to show you have the stones to face them.  How are you gonna stare down a hard-nosed cabinet minister like Kevin O’Brien or Charlene Johnson if a few hippies scare you crapless? 

And after all it’s only a couple of hours.

Even if you want to play the company-town-man, you are likely to get more of your own votes with the days of coverage of you tackling the tree-huggers rather than putting out some completely lame-assed excuse delivered via a representative.

These points are evidently lost on Conservative Vaughn Granter.  He begged off a debate sponsored by a local environmental group.  The VOCM version quotes an “associate” who says the man has a “door-to-door” strategy.

Whatever.

If he’s as overwhelmingly popular and as phenomenally well-known in the city as Granter claimed with on Open Line with Randy Simms on Wednesday, then Vaughn could skip a couple of doors and no one would really notice.  That is, he could skip them in a good cause like generating some media coverage to reach more people and reinforce his messages.

In another place, the candidate hisself could be heard on Wednesday babbling some drivel about having to spend a couple or three days boning up on the issues and that would just divert  from his plan to shake every door and knock every hand. Not aware of the issues and the party position such that he has to do an intense three days holed up with a set of briefing notes?

Hardly something you’d want to admit, one might think.

Vaughn isn’t much on current affairs, then?  Wee bit vague on what’s up?

Yeah.

Not the best line and not the best strategy, maybe.

Just saying.

.At least Vaughn has a few days to change his mind or get up to speed.  The debate is set for February 10.

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The old hum on the Humber

Politicians running for the government party in Newfoundland and Labrador usually have a simple message;  vote for me or the district won’t see pavement again. 

Now they often get more sophisticated in the presentation these days:  Vaughn Granter, for example, is telling voters in Humber West that he will be their strong “voice” but the idea is basically the same.  Having someone in government will help to bring home all the pork you need.

In Granter’s case, his comments give new meaning to Squires-era political slogan about putting the “hum on the Humber”. 

After all, Humber West has been represented in the House of Assembly by more Premiers than any other district in the province.  Period.  If the good burghers of  Corner Brook are missing something it is not from a lack of patronage, pull, pork or anything else.  Face it: it’s doubtful that Vaughn could succeed where the likes of Joey, Frank, Clyde, Brian and Danny failed miserably.

That’s not all. Over most of the past 20 years Corner Brook has had not one but two senior cabinet ministers.  For the past seven alone, they’ve been pork-teamed by none other than a townie who never lived in Corner Brook for more than a couple of nights at the Glynmill in his life and local boy Tom Marshall.

If this much isn’t clear by now make no mistake: Corner Brookers who might be persuaded by Granter’s truly pathetic appeal can rest easy on the future of their city.  Vote for Mark Watton.  If Tom Marshall, the province’s finance minister, cannot keep the provincial tax dollars flowing for the next 10 months, all by himself then it is only because there isn’t any space left to stuff another ounce of pork inside the Lewin Parkway anyway. 

If none of that makes voters in Corner Brook suck some air between their teeth, then let them consider the sad example of one David Brazil.  He’s the newly minted member of the provincial legislature who replaced the late Diane Whelan.  Brazil campaigned on improving the ferry service to Bell Island, a big voting block in the Conception bay East-Bell Island district.

On January 9, Brazil spoke to VOCM and pronounced himself pleased with his colleagues in government  Great job.  Bright future. VOCM’s disappeared the story but you can still find traces of it via google.

David Brazil won a by-election in Conception Bay East-Bell Island in December, and he feels the PC Party is well positioned. He says they have a good caucus ...

And now as his pal the transportation minister is cutting the service back, all Dave can do is smile and try to foist the blame on someone who had nothing to do with the decision. The best he could say is that the cuts were “unwelcome.”

Voters in Conception Bay East-Bell Island are discovering, likely much to their annoyance, that Dave is not their strong voice inside government.  Instead, he is yet another basenji, a dog that won’t bark.

Is there any reason to believe Vaughn Granter will do any better?  Not really.  There are plenty of decent people sitting on the Tory back benches but take all of them together, plus a buck and a half and you might get a decent cup of coffee somewhere.

Such is the fate of a backbencher in the current Tory administration.

Such will be Vaughn Granter’s fate if he’s elected.

Count on it.

Meanwhile, the people of the Straits-White Bay North voted against Danny Williams himself and look at what happened to them. Not only did they get a member of the legislature who kept the government under close and very public scrutiny, they also got a new health care centre that some would have had you believe would disappear unless there was another basenji sitting faithfully at the feet of Premier of the moment.

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Don’t shoot! They’re short

Of the 16 by-elections since 2003, the provincial Conservatives have set a mere 22 days for campaigns in all but three.  The minimum required under provincial election laws is 21 days.

In two of those, the campaigns lasted 23 days and in one the campaign was 24 days.

The current campaign in Humber West fits the pattern to a tee.

The Conservatives have also been super-speedy in calling by-elections.  In three – Exploits, Port au Port and Humber Valley – the writ for the by-election came the same day the incumbent vacated the seat.

But at 52 days after being vacant, Humber West is the third longest time the Tories have taken to call a by-election They took 61 days to call Cape St. Francis, 60 days to call Baie Verte,

The maximum time to call a by-election under election laws is 60 days.

The others range between three days for the Straits-White Bay North to 48 days for Placentia- St. Mary’s.

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Watton to carry Liberal banner in Humber West

Corner Brook native Mark Watton wants to represent the people of Humber West in the House of Assembly.

He has the Liberal nomination.

And he’s got a pretty good line:

…do people want a PC government that’s going to be one seat bigger or do they want a PC government that’s going to be one seat more accountable?

 

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Mill shelves controversial tire burning proposal on eve of by-election

Corner Brook Pulp and Paper quietly shelved a controversial proposal to burn tires as part of the mill’s power generation on the eve of  a provincial by-election.

Word came late Friday in a routine statement from the provincial environment department on applications under environmental protection laws.

The provincial environment minister was supposed to rule in December on a proposal from the west coast paper mill.  The provincial government postponed that decision to January 15 claiming that it had received more public submissions on the project than it could handle by the initial deadline.

While the initial announcement of the proposal met with little public reaction, a series of protests, letters to the editor and a Facebook campaign made it clear some area residents strongly opposed the tire burning idea.

The second deadline came and went with the excuse that the minister newly appointed on January 13 needed time to review the proposal.  Shortly afterward, the minister’s office indicated he’d have an announcement by week’s end.

The decision to shelve the proposal comes on the eve of a by-election to fill a Corner Brook seat in the provincial legislature vacated by Danny Williams, who quit politics in early December.

Both opposition parties pledged to make the proposal a key issue in the by-election but by Friday only the Liberals had a candidate to face the Conservatives.  Mark Watton, a lawyer who had previously been a political staffer in the Prime Minister’s Office and chief of staff to cabinet minister Ken Dryden, is expected to be the only person to seek the Liberal nomination that closes on Friday.

On  Wednesday, high school principal Vaughan Granter won the Conservative nomination.

Friday’s decision by Corner Brook Pulp and paper doesn’t necessarily remove the tire proposal.  The mill could bring the proposal back after the by-election.  At the same time, the provincial environment department ships used car and truck tires to facilities in Quebec for burning.

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Game changer: Watton eyeing run in Humber West

Mark Watton, whose experience includes a stint as a senior advisor in the Prime Minister’s Office and chief of staff to cabinet minister Ken Dryden, is thinking of seeking the Liberal nomination in Humber West.

There’s a story in the Friday Western Star.

Now a lawyer who has been working out of Toronto since 2008, the 36-year-old is seriously thinking about throwing his hat in the ring as a Liberal candidate for the byelection to replace former premier Danny Williams in Humber West.

He will be returning home to Corner Brook for the Christmas break in the coming days and will use that time to do more thinking before making a decision.

Regular readers of this corner will also know Watton as the author of nottawa, a political blog he’s maintained for the past few years or so.

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