The Conservative NDP Merger we need #nlpoli

The province’s largest public sector union met last week in St. John’s for its annual convention.  They started out their first day with a speech from recently-elected boss Jerry Earle. The militant guy promised the union would militantly oppose any plan to turn public sector services over to the private sector.

The province’s NDP leader – Earle McCurdy - spoke to delegates on Thursday.  McCurdy said for umpteen thousandth time this year, that he and his friends in the union party would also steadfastly resist any effort to privatize public services. 

Friday was the day the union let the other two provincial party leaders say a few words.  What happened next was amazing..

Polls, St. John’s East, and the coming provincial election #nlpoli

SRBP told you on Tuesday morning that the federal election did not bode well for the New Democrats and Conservatives in the province.

The Liberals are just better organized than the other parties.  They can identify their voters,  keep in touch with them, and get them to the polls far better than the New Democrats or the Conservatives.  That’s how you win elections.  And when you are that much better at it than all the others, the odds go up exponentially that you will get more and more seats than people might expect. 

There’s way more to it than just the idea that the Liberals have a computer program that does today what we used to do on index cards.  Campaigns converted to Excel and other spreadsheet programs back when personal computers first appeared.

Organization is also about how the parties collect information and what they do with it. The Liberals are light years ahead of the competition, as Monday’s results showed.

The New Lorraine Party #nlpoli

Make no mistake.

This is not your New Democratic Party.

For those who are active members, they cannot even say that it is “our party”.

It’s hers.

Dip-Flop Fly #nlpoli

Twitter flame wars between cabinet ministers and Dale Kirby over Muskrat Falls.

Surely Darin, Jerome and Clyde have better things to do with their days.

Then again, maybe not.

But at the heart of the whole flare up was Lorraine Michael’s theatrical delivery of a letter to the public utilities board on Tuesday explaining she would not be making a presentation on Muskrat Falls.

Like they really gave a flying frig in the first place.

Right after she handed the envelope to someone from the utilities regulator, Michael took some questions from reporters.

Michael is in a bit of a political jam, you see.  Tuesday’s little bit of a show was a way to try get out of it.  Michael campaigned during the last federal election alongside Jack Layton.  The provincial and federal NDP supported a loan guarantee for Muskrat Falls.  Good for Newfoundland and Labrador (votes), as it seemed at the time, and definitely good for some votes in Nova Scotia.

That was then.

This is now.

In the meantime, public sentiment in the province has shifted against the project.  Lots of people - lots of significant people – have turned up lots of significant problems with the deal. While Michael went along with the whole thing back in 2011 when she was the lone Dipper in the provincial legislature, she now has a caucus to contend with.  Some of them don’t like Muskrat Falls.

Hence the softening of official Dipper support for the project.

But Michael still can’t get away from the unions.  They love the project.  Lots of public dollars to employ lots of unionised members and potential union members. 

Want to know how strongly the union support the project?  Check any comment by federation of labour boss Lana Payne. And when the unions want something, their political wing – Lorraine’s bunch – will have a hard time opposing them.  All of this allows for big internal divisions in the NDP caucus and that’s without getting into the egos and the ambition.

Part of what you saw in the Twitter fight on Tuesday was the Tories pounding on a wedge issue: the NDP position on da Falls.  And they were hammering the wannabe leader, Dale Kirby.  He gets on Tory nerves, big-time, for a whole raft of reasons.  There were lots of school-boy taunts about getting him in the House where people would see the Dippers for what they are.  Yada, yada yada, blah, blah, blah.

All that bravado doesn’t get away from the fact that the only caucus more fractured than the Dipper one is the Tory crew.  They’ve got splits over the fishery and the budget and Muskrat Falls.

What’s more, Kathy Dunderdale has no control over her cabinet, let alone her caucus. One day after she says that people have to put their egos aside and stop playing the blame game so everyone can sort out the fishery, former fisheries minister Clyde Jackman is out there playing the blame game on province-wide radio. 

So amid all the bluster and fury on Tuesday between the Tories and the Dippers lots of things were not as they seem.

Go read Lorraine’s letter, for example.

In effect, it is a submission to the commission review of the Muskrat Falls project.  You see, if Lorraine really didn’t want to participate in the whole exercise she just wouldn’t have shown up in the first place.

Instead she says that a presentation wouldn’t allow her to outline the NDP concerns. Then she outlines them without having to face any questions from the panel or Nalcor. 

Oddly enough, the Liberal Party’s natural resources critic managed to sit in front of the commission and lay out substantive concerns.

In the letter, Michael states the NDP criteria for a successful project;  economically viable, environmentally sustainable and beneficial to the province. Like anyone would propose an economically foolish and environmentally destructive project that would screw taxpayers to the wall.

And in the letter itself, she doesn’t say that the provincial NDP think the whole idea of the project is nutso.  Lorraine basically says that there isn’t enough information and that there should be time for a more detailed review.

“We are not yet convinced…”

She doesn’t say “not convinced”.

Lorraine says not yet convinced.

The Big Tories who have come out against the project are saying they want a proper process.  That’s so they can’t be accused of betraying the party.  No one can mistake their meaning though, even if the actual words are soft. They know Muskrat Falls is ludicrous.

The NDP use coded language, too.  But notice the difference between the Tory code and the Dipper code.  With the NDP, you really can’t see an unequivocal rejection of the project.  Lorraine left a hedge in her letter, the letter that is a submission to the review while claiming it isn’t a submission.

The one thing you can’t mistake though is the political turmoil in the province at the moment.  If any of it erupts into the open, this could be an amazing year in local politics.

- srbp -

The Politics of Cynicism, NDP style #nlpoli

One could hardly imagine a better way to bitch-slap the carefully fabricated Legend of Jack Layton than Lorraine Michael’s news release announcing a 25% reduction in something the provincial NDP leader calls a “small business tax”.

“Small businesses employ most of the workers, contribute to their local economies, and continue to create most of the new jobs in this province,” Michael said today. “A focus on small business in Newfoundland and Labrador became an important part of our platform preparation. Consultation with small business owners helped us identify some key ways to give them a break.

Problem Number One is that Lorraine doesn’t bother to tell anyone what small business tax she would like to chop.

Perhaps it is the Small Business Income Tax.

Problem Number Two is that the current rate is 4%.  The New Democrats will drop that to 3%.

Whooppeee friggin’ ding. This is a non-announcement.

The release has absolutely no detail in it at all, in keeping with current New Democratic Party practice.

That means you can’t really tell what they are promising and as such you will have a hard time holding them accountable later on should they accidentally compile enough credits to form a government.

For those keeping score, we are up to problem Number Three.

In that same theme, this lack of accountability is exactly the opposite of what the Dippers did in Nova Scotia.  Over there, Darrell and the crew issued a simple statement of goals and had all sorts of details that you can use to tell if they did it or not.

The province’s New Democrats are running a very aggressive campaign that is centred primarily on their steady stream of candidate nomination announcements.  They are getting plenty of media coverage for it.

Whether that’s enough to cause a massive break through in seats in the province remains to be seen, but if past history is any sign, voters in this province aren’t that stupid.

At some point, voters will pay attention to the candidates and the party platform.  What voters will see at that point is pretty striking.

The first thing voters will see is that the New Democrats want to see the Conservatives back in office.  Lorraine is in her last campaign – most likely – so they don’t have any bigger plans at the moment.  They are hoping the Liberals will collapse but the Dippers aren’t doing anything substantial to move themselves forward.

The second is that their campaign “platform” is just a thin series of statements like this one on small business taxes.  The releases sound vaguely interesting but on closer examination, they turn into puffs of smoke at best.  At worst, they advocate policies that benefit people outside the province more than those who are actually going to pay for it.

Like, Muskrat Falls.

On Muskrat Falls,  the NDP stand firmly behind the provincial Conservatives. Their position is that they back it, if it works.  Well, the thing will “work” because local voters will be forced to pay the whole shot for it even though Nalcor and the provincial Conservatives ignored cheaper alternatives.  Either the New Democrats haven’t paid attention to what is happening with Muskrat Falls or they don’t give a shit about local voters. 

The third thing the voters will notice is that the New Democrats have turned from a party of ideals to a party of intense  - and pretty blatant cynicism.  Their position on Muskrat Falls is perhaps the best illustration of that.  Their positions on gasoline tax cuts and home heating fuel are examples of aping Conservative retail politics while mouthing words about ordinary Canadians, helping people and protecting the environment.

If that doesn’t add up to some pretty blatant cynicism, it’s hard to know what else would.

- srbp -

* Link added.

NDP avoids straight answer on Muskrat Falls #nlpoli

You can tell if a provincial opposition party politician supports Kathy Dunderdale’s Muskrat Falls plan by how many words it takes to explain his or her position.

New Democratic Party leader Lorraine Michael proved the point on Wednesday with a news release posted to NDP website and a statement issued to the media but not posted on the website that repeats the release’s content in slightly different words.

The total word count?  More than 550.

Read it all, though, and you still won’t have a clear answer whether or not her party supports Kathy Dunderdale’s plan to hike electricity rates in the province, double the public debt and ship discount electricity to Nova Scotia at the expense of taxpayers in this province.

The news release claims it is going to give Michael’s position on Muskrat Falls. 

But it doesn’t.

Instead, Michael launches into a claim that the provincial government and Nalcor haven’t told the public how the company has spent $348 million the provincial government transferred to the company in the current fiscal year.

Then-Opposition Leader Yvonne Jones questioned the same transfer, incidentally back when provincial finance minister Tom Marshall introduced the budget in April.

But unlike Lorraine Michael, Yvonne Jones wasn’t concerned at the time whether or not the money was spent properly on Muskrat Falls.  Jones thought the money could be better spent on other things.

Still, even if Nalcor did tells Michael exactly how it spent the $348 million, the people of the province won’t be any closer to knowing whether or not Michael really supports Kathy Dunderdale’s Muskrat Falls plan but is afraid to admit it publicly.

What’s really cute about Michael’s claims about transparency and accountability is that she worked with the provincial government in 2008 to pass amendments to the energy corporation’s governing statute that frustrated genuine public accountability. The Liberals did the same thing.

At the time, Michael was generally satisfied if Nalcor filed reports in the House of Assembly. Michael’s comments on one amendment are typical:

This amendment, I think, does assure the thing that is at the basis of our responsibility, that the public of this Province will be informed of what is going on through the usual process which is the tabling of the information here in the House of Assembly. That is how the public learns anything that has to do with the Crown, through tabling here in the House of Assembly. We now assure that our accountability to the public is assured. We, I think, are showing that we believe in the transparency, openness and accountability that we say we stand for by now having this amendment.

There’s no indication Nalcor failed to abide by the legislation Michael endorsed in 2008, incidentally so it is more than a wee bit hypocritical for Michael to be taking pot shots at an “accountability” regime she helped create..

Throughout the whole release and statement, Michael never does give her position on Muskrat Falls.  Instead, she repeats the general party policy that supports “any development that is economically viable, environmentally sustainable and beneficial for the people of the province…”.

Kathy Dunderdale will tell you that Muskrat Falls meets every one of those criteria.

So far Lorraine Michael hasn’t shown any sign she’d disagree.

Just to give you a sense of the NDP position, take this Twitter exchange about the NDP position. 

St. John’s East NDP candidate George Murphy followed his leader and avoided a simple answer to the simple question:

Question: @GeorgeMurphyNDP @dalegkirby So you support it, George?

edhollett

Answer:  @edhollett @dalegkirby If it's economically viable...wouldn't you?

GeorgeMurphyNDP

Q:  @GeorgeMurphyNDP @dalegkirby Do you support the deal, yes or no?

edhollett

A:  @edhollett @dalegkirby Ed..I can't make it any simpler than that...I just said 'if it's economically viable"...

GeorgeMurphyNDP

Q:  @GeorgeMurphyNDP @dalegkirby You say yes you support the deal or no you don't. Simple answer.

edhollett

A:  @edhollett @dalegkirby Jees Ed...I can't be any clearer than what I said. If it's economically viable. Wouldn't you?

GeorgeMurphyNDP

Followed almost immediately after by:

C'mon Ed..If it was an economically viable project, would you support it? Yes or no. Simple answer...

Q:  @GeorgeMurphyNDP @dalegkirby The more you dodge, the worse it looks, George. Is the problem that you don't have enough info to assess viability?

edhollett

George didn’t reply.

The problem for the NDP is that Muskrat Falls is a serious wedge issue that could cause major problems within the party itself.

On the one hand, Michael is already on record supporting the loan guarantee through her appearance at Jack Layton’s last national campaign appearance in St. John’s. 

Michael also knows that the NDP government of Nova Scotia backs the deal as does the national NDP.  Ultimately, Nova Scotia Premier Darrell Dexter carries a lot more weight in Ottawa with the national NDP than Lorraine does.

On the other hand, many of the NDP’s current and potential supporters in Newfoundland and Labrador are leery of Kathy Dunderdale’s plan for the public debt and their electricity rates. They are also pissed at the idea Nova Scotians will get cheap electricity paid for by taxpayers in this province.

Openly endorsing the deal could cost Michael and the NDP a great many votes especially among disaffected Tory voters in metro St. John’s who could be looking for a safe place to vote against the Muskrat deal.

They won’t find a safe anti-Muskrat haven in the NDP.

Put it all together and you have a news release that – like candidate George Murphy – doesn’t give a simple answer to a simple question.

Lorraine Michael tries to sound critical of the provincial government but, behind closed doors and the backs of hands in whispered conversations, the NDP is backing Dunderdale to the hilt.

-srbp-

The missing NDP statement from 2011.

Michael demands Muskrat Falls transparency, proposes Nalcor conservation division

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Newfoundland and Labrador New Democratic Party leader Lorraine Michael (MHA, Signal Hill-Qidi Vidi) today released a statement outlining her party's stand on the Muskrat Falls development. She also called on Nalcor to create a separate energy body mandated to help Newfoundland and Labrador families save money through programs that maximize conservation of energy resources.

The NDP supports any development that is economically viable, environmentally sustainable and beneficial for the people of the province, Michael said. However, the invisibility cloak that has been draped over the project by Nalcor and the Dunderdale Conservatives makes it impossible to assess how responsibly they are spending taxpayers' money.

"Last Friday's media event only served to reinforce the grave concerns we have about the way this important development is proceeding. Now the Dunderdale Conservatives are not immediately releasing the environmental assessment," Michael said. "The people of this province have already spent $348 million this fiscal year alone on Muskrat Falls – that is $700 from each man, woman and child who lives here. That investment should buy us some transparency.

"If we had spent the $348 million directly through the Department of Natural Resources, for example, the people of Newfoundland and Labrador would have access to the budgetary process, with line items to show exactly where the money has gone.

"As it stands, with Muskrat Falls being handled through a Crown Corporation created by this government, we are supposed to blindly accept government assurances that they are spending responsibly. I'm sorry, but the people of Newfoundland and Labrador deserve more than the 'Trust us' they are getting from the Dunderdale Conservatives."

The NDP is also calling for the creation of a body within Nalcor dedicated to energy conservation.

"Our approach to our valuable energy resources can not be simply to develop them and use them up," said Michael. "We need practical programs that will help Newfoundland and Labrador families save money while at the same time conserving our resources. The best place for this to be done is within the crown corporation mandated to oversee energy usage.

"Every resident of Newfoundland and Labrador should be getting the maximum possible for their household energy spending. And every resident of this province should be asking the government, 'What am I getting for my seven hundred dollars?'"

Meet your newest frankenparty: the Bloc NDP

An assessment in the Globe and Mail of the political parties and their voter profiles concluded that:

the NDP constituency has gone from being overwhelmingly English speaking and more diverse than the national average to mostly French-speaking and less multicultural.

Sounds like calling it the Bloc NDP would be a good name for Canada’s newest frankenparty.

- srbp -

Cleary to unquit for NDP again?

Ryan Cleary, former newspaper editor, former talk show host and former NDP candidate is considering another run at federal politics six months, after he packed it in as the New Democratic Party candidate in St. John’s South-Mount Pearl.

Cleary carried the orange banner in the 2008 federal election, lost that one, then took up a job hosting a late night talk show.  Although the gab-fest was well suited to his talkative style, Cleary quit that gig to spend more time with his family and then sought the NDP nomination again.

Last October he gave that up to go back to journalism and now he is apparently considering an offer from the NDP to run again for them in St. John’s South-Mount Pearl.

Talk about on-again, off-again.

A campaign involving Cleary, Liberal incumbent Siobhan Coady and reputed Tory heavyweight Loyola Sullivan could turn out to be an interesting race.  Cleary has the potential to split up the nationalist Conservative vote especially among local Conservatives who are still can’t get beyond the whole demon Harper thing. 

In 2008, Danny Williams’ gang tried to drive the Tories to Coady.  Four prominent members of his caucus, including Kathy Dunderdale and Paul Oram, went door-to-door for Coady.  It didn’t work.  The local Blue Crew that did turn out opted for Cleary, instead.

Cleary also might not be able to count on quit so much spill-over help from Jack Harris in St. John’s East.  The darling of the East End will be in a tighter race of his own against Jerry Byrne. 

As a result, Jack might not be able to give any serious help to the fellow some will soon be affectionately referring to as Yo-Yo Maw.

- srbp -

A leaf from Harper’s political playbook, by J. Layton

Jack Layton and the New Democratic Party want the federal government to drop the goods and services tax on home heating costs.

Layton had a wonderful story to go with his call, as recounted by Aaron Wherry at macleans.ca:

“Mr. Speaker, Frank Rainville is a senior in Sturgeon Falls, Ontario who told me about how his bills for basic utilities have gone up by $20 a month just this past month because of the government’s HST,” the NDP’s Jack Layton reported a short time later. “He asked me how he could cope with heating bills when he has to turn the thermostat on because it is cold up there. The fact is heating bills are going up all across the country and working families are struggling right now. Will the Prime Minister show some leadership, join with us and work to take the federal sales tax off home heating fuel now?”

Yes, folks, Jack Layton and his fellow new Democrats are standing up for the working poor, people and fixed incomes and all sorts of downtrodden, hard-done-by people. Well, at least that’s what the die-hard Dippers out there will tell you.

But just think about it for a second. Mr. Rainville is going to have to cough up an extra $20 a month for heating thanks to what Layton has taken to calling the Harper Sales tax.  Rainville’s on a fixed income and that 20 bucks will come in handy.  Even though Layton’s little HST cut is aimed primarily at voters in Ontario and British Columbia where the HST is very unpopular, there are plenty of Mr. Rainvilles throughout Newfoundland and Labrador and the same cut to the heating costs will help them out, too.

Yay, Jack.

Well, not so fast.

These sorts of blanket tax cuts – the stock in trade of conservatives  - have the wonderful effect of cutting costs and they have the even more wonderful effect – from a Connie perspective of helping rich people proportionately more than people like Mr. Rainville. In St. John’s someone in public housing will get a break, but the person down in King William Estates or one of the other swankier neighbourhoods springing up in St. John’s East will just love the cut on heating oil or electricity that it takes to make their blimp hangers all the more cozy in the cold January night.

If Jack Layton really wanted to help people on fixed incomes, he’d go for something other than a blanket tax cut. Layton and his crew would offer rebates or  - better still - tax breaks tied to income. That way the people who need the help the most could get it and those who can well afford to heat their massive homes can carry right on doing so while footing the bill for their choices.

And actually the problem is not just with giving a disproportionate big break to the wealthy – as the NDP idea would do – or carrying a huge public deficit while helping out the wealthy.  That’s all bad enough just as it is bad enough that the average Republican looking at this scheme would embrace Layton as a discipline of Karl.  

Jack Layton’s tax cut idea is also damned poor environmental policy. Canadians don’t need to be rewarding energy inefficiency or giving people the chance to consume more energy.   An across-the-board tax cut does just that.  It potentially makes the NDP vulnerable on the left from the Greens, but there seems to be a conscious effort in the NDP thinking that they should just look for more votes in places where they can fight Conservatives, like out west or in a couple of ridings in Newfoundland.  That’s pretty much in tune with the NDP position on the gun registry as well.

Now the NDP position isn’t all bad.  They do want to bring back an energy efficiency incentive program.  That’s a great idea and coupled with a targeted tax break scheme, it would be a progressive social policy.

Unfortunately, this isn’t about progressive social policy:  the New Democrats are playing politics like Stephen Harper.  This HST thing is just Connie-style retail politics.

And politically, it is a sensible  - if monumentally cynical - thing to do if you want to get elected.  Jack Harris in St. John’s East will win re-election handily with such an idea.  All the well-heeled people in his district will love his conservative policies while the people on fixed and low incomes will get a bit of cash to make them happy too.  Over in St. John’s South-Mount Pearl, the same thing applies even if there aren’t as many people with giant houses there.

Basically these sorts of Conservative-looking policies might help sagging New Democrat fortunes in a place like St. John’s where, as bizarre as the idea might seem, Conservatives will vote New Democrat if they can’t vote Connie for some reason.

It might work.  Too bad for Jack Layton and the New Democrats there likely won’t be an election for some months yet.  By the time people head to the polls federally, this sort of thing will likely be long forgotten.  But in the meantime it is interesting to see just exactly how much influence Stephen Harper and his Conservative Party have had on Canadian politics.

- srbp -

Meanwhile, down the other rabbit hole…

The Dippers  - who only a few days ago were sending around publicly-funded propaganda about the number of times Liberals have backed Stephen Harper over the past year – are about to announce their plans to back Stephen Harper.

What could possibly happen next?

Some candidate leaving a job to spend more time with his kids and then announcing he wants to be a member of parliament?

Oh.

That already happened.

Okaaaaaaaaaaaay.

Like things are just going to get weirder and dangerouser.

-srbp-

Dipper doodles: NL First meets the (N)DP

Scanning the list of resolution at this weekend’s (N)DP convention – the “New” is optional -  someone from Newfoundland and Labrador might find it all very curious.

There’s a resolution to reorganize the party’s national executive board.

The resolution provides for two seats representing all of Atlantic Canada.

Four provinces:  two seats.  Ontario gets two seats on its own as do Quebec and British Columbia.  But according to the (N)DP,  seven of the 10 provinces in the country have to be bundled together in clumps to equal the other three provinces on their own.

The very attitude so many Canadians have fought against for decades is enshrined as (N)DP national policy in how the party governs itself.  The Liberals and the Conservatives both have representation on their national executives by province. 

Good enough for Grits and Connies.

But not for Dippers.

This must not be sitting well with such long-standing and hard core (N)DP types as Ryan Cleary, he of the Newfoundland and Labrador uber alles wing of the party.

Cleary has set as his goal improving the “long-term status of Newfoundland and Labrador” so it must be tough having to start by trying to sort out the headspace of his fellow (New) Democrats on top of all his other challenges.

Now almost certainly some irked Dipper will point out that there is representation for each province on the national council.

But take a look at the revised structure of that council.  Each province gets one member.  But where party membership is over 5,000 in that province, there’s another member.  And there’s another for province’s with more than 10,000 (N)DP members, and so on.  That sort of structure obviously favours more populous province’s like  - interestingly enough – Ontario, British Columbia and Quebec.

The run-up to the next election could turn out to be really fascinating for political watchers, but not because the (N)DP can’t figure out what to call itself. 

Nope.  There could be a little war brewing between the party and one of its wannabe candidates.

-srbp-

Quagmire update:  At this writing (1015 AM Eastern) The convention wound up moving two separate motions to refer the resolution back to committee to reconsider the representation issue for both the Prairie’s and Atlantic Canada.

How did this get out of committee in this state in the first place?