Liberal Party Fact Check: Search and Rescue #nlpoli

What is it about politicians in Newfoundland and Labrador and search and rescue?

Seriously.

Newly minted Liberal MHA Lisa Dempster issued a news release on Thursday about rumoured changes at SERCO in Goose Bay.

And that’s where the problems start.

The Zen of Political Disasters: Becoming A Hole #nlpoli

As SRBP noted in an earlier post, the first step in getting yourself out of a hard political spot is to recognise that you are in a hole.

What often happens – as seen in the provincial Conservatives and the Burton Winters tragedy up to now – is that they cannot see that they are in a hole in the first place.

On Monday, the local Connies took it a step further.

A left wing Tea Bagger

Pity the poor federal New Democrats.

Just as they turn themselves in knots over a private members bill on the gun registry, along comes defence critic Jack Harris sounding like a left wing Tea Bagger but without Sarah’s Palin’s intellectual depth or subtlety of mind.

Harris managed to get himself standing before the offshore helicopter safety inquiry. The former provincial New Democratic Party leader decided that his closing remarks were a good time to launch another unfounded assault on the integrity of the men and women of the Canadian Forces who provide search and rescue service.

"As long as that Canadian Forces Response [sic] time is as slow as it is — and inadequate in my view — then there may have to be more severe restrictions on the use of helicopters to transport offshore," said Harris, MP for St. John’s East and defence critic for the federal NDP.

That’s the quote from a story carried by cbcnl.ca. Harris recommended that offshore helicopter flights be limited to daylight hours during the weekdays since, as the Telegram put it:

The Department of National Defence’s (DND) search and rescue response times are 30 minutes on weekdays from 8 a.m. to 4 p.m., and two hours at all other times.

The only problem is that Harris knows the response is not slow, as he alleged, nor is it confined to certain hours during the day, as his comments suggest.  Harris knows the correct information that because of evidence presented at the inquiry.  The information is there.  Why he choses to ignore it remains a mystery.

The offshore helicopter inquiry, directed very ably by retired Supreme Court justice Robert Wells, has revealed a great many details of offshore helicopter safety and travel that many – likely including Harris  - did not know before. It is all information that should have led Harris to make other comments, ones that fit within the inquiry mandate.  That information was there as well.  Why he chose to ignore it and instead launch yet another attack against the men and women of the Canadian Forces remains a mystery.

But it is not the first time Harris has made comments contrary to the facts.  In an interview with CBC Radio, Harris called for an agency separate from the offshore regulatory board to set standards for offshore safety.  He made the comments while discussing safety standards set by Transport Canada, the agency separate from the offshore regulatory board that sets safety standards for the offshore.

On another occasion, Harris said that on the day of the Cougar incident, the Gander search and rescue squadron was “off station,” that is outside the province. They were not outside their operational area and, as evidence at the inquiry confirmed, the presence of all the region’s search and rescue aircraft in Sydney Nova Scotia for an exercise sped up some aspects of the response.

Harris has accused the Canadian Forces of failing to conduct a study of the Cougar incident out of fear of what might be revealed.  He had no basis for making the allegation  - yet another cheap shot - but yet he made it anyway.

Outside the bizarro world where Harris might be considered an expert in anything military, let alone search and rescue, it is hard to fathom why the New Democrat defence critic persists in sloganeering. Perhaps someone has told him that it plays well with the base.

Well, it is hard to imagine New Democrats being quite so stupid as Harris’ comments suppose. New Democrat voters are, in fact, considerably more intelligent than Harris’ remarks allow.  Nor are Harris’ comments consistent with what any Canadian would expect of a national party that is serious about wanting to form government.  But apparently, they do at least wish to pose as such a party.

Interestingly enough, though, when Harris had the chance to question Colonel Paul Drover at the Wells inquiry, he wasn’t quite as bold in his assertions.  Faced with someone who knew the facts, Harris would only cluck about the gold standard. In itself, that is revealing.

Harris’ anti-military comments reduce the New Democratic Party’s position to a caricature.  They diminish the men and women of the party.  What is worse, Jack Harris’ scurrilous comments attack the men and women who risk their lives to rescue others.

If Harris had the courage of his convictions, if he really is  - as some contend - some sort of an expert, he ought to do one simple thing:  go to Gander sometime soon and speak with the men and women of 103 Squadron and their families.  Not a private meeting, but one with media present.  Let Harris explain – in his expert opinion – how it is that 103 Squadron screwed up the Cougar response.  Let him point out why their response to search and rescue calls, generally,  is too slow and how they might do it better.

And then let Jack sit back and hear from the real experts. That would be something worth broadcasting in prime time.

Sadly, it will never happen.  But it won’t be because the men and women of the Canadian Forces are afraid of the results.

No.

It won’t happen for the same reason Jack says one thing to the media, but another thing when faced with a real expert.

- srbp -

“Twisting it to suit their purposes”: CBC misrepresents DND search and rescue study

A 2003 report by the Canadian Forces’ operational research and analysis centre concluded that “the coverage offered by Gander is better than that offered by St. John’s at all distances.  Moreover there are notable differences at 400 and 500 nautical miles (nm) where the coverage given by Gander is better by 20 and 15 percent respectively.” (p. vi)

The report is available online at the DND operational research and analysis website.  It provides a detailed analysis of search and rescue issues and assesses the relative merits of using St. John’s as a primary operating base for SAR helicopters compared to  Gander.

The 2003 report concludes that  - based on all factors including weather and the likelihood of Cougar helicopter incidents - Gander is preferable overall. The existing location provides optimum coverage across the entire range of potential missions, including any involving oil industry helicopters.

The report makes no observations on deploying helicopters to St. John’s (as opposed to basing), on the use of civilian search and rescue as currently provided by Cougar Helicopters under contract to the oil companies or on other ways to enhance overall SAR capabilities.

But the 2003 study clearly rejects the idea of moving DND SAR helicopters to St. John’s.

A careful reading of the report also suggests that under certain circumstances weather conditions at St. John’s might also erase any time advantage St. John’s would have at incidents less than 100 nautical miles from shore.

Since Monday, CBC St. John’s has been presenting an entirely different – and wrong - version of the DND report on east Coast search and rescue. An online story uses the title “St. John's best SAR base for offshore oil: DND” for example and uses a December 2000 presentation apparently obtained through the federal access to information laws.

Bond Papers discussed that initial CBC report story  - and it’s inaccuracies - on Monday. The conclusion CBC claims the 2000 presentation reached is especially important since the later (2003) study used more data to develop a better picture of east coast search and rescue operations and the requirements posed by offshore oil operations.

But even given that,  the initial review clearly concluded that :

While the modelling used in the report appeared to show St. John’s as a better location for what it terms “Cougar-related” incidents,  “since incident rates for Cougar will probably be quite small, the analysis performed on the historic data should prove greater utility in a direct comparison of Gander with St. John’s.”

CBC has been linking to a December 2000 slide show that represented an early version of the work leading up to the 2003 study.   A note at the end of the 2000 presentation – erroneously labelled ‘2003 report on SAR’ in the CBC’s pdf  – indicates that a detailed report will follow in 2001.

It was actually published in 2003, as confirmed by a simple e-mail request to the operational research and analysis communications officer.  For some reason, CBC hasn’t referred to the actual report, preferring instead to quote – and in some instances misquote  - the 2000 slide show.

Your humble e-scribbler found the e-mail address for the operational research and analysis division on line and fired off an e-mail request for the later detailed report.  A link to the publicly accessible database of reports and the title of the 2003 study came back within a few hours.

A second CBC story based on the same December 2000 pdf file also mashes sentences to create a completely false impression of what the 2000 presentation said.  In a story on reaction to CBC’s initial reports titled “Renewed call for rescue base in St. John's”, there is this paragraph:

"For a Cougar [offshore oil industry helicopter] incident … if a Cormorant deploys from St. John's, then it will be the first asset on the scene," concluded the report, obtained by CBC News through an access to information request. "Deployment from Gander will result in 48 minutes of additional waiting time."

The actual information comes from a specific slide (number 26) discussing hypothetical Cougar helicopter incidents. It involves a comparison of flying a helicopter from Newfoundland versus flying a CC-130 fixed wing transport  - with a higher flying speed than a helicopter– from Greenwood, Nova Scotia.  Both aircraft would be deployed to a SAR incident involving a Cougar helicopter.

As can be easily seen, CBC lifts out the first bullet in the last section.  The whole citation notes that for distances greater than 100 nautical miles, the Hercules would be the first one the scene. That’s hardly surprising given the relative speeds of the two aircraft over the distances involved in the DND projections.

The sentence mash-up conveys entirely incorrect and ultimately misleading information about the 2000 presentation and what it said. 

It isn’t clear why the CBC stories have been persistently misrepresenting the DND report, but there is no question that CBC has twisted the DND reports to give conclusions the reports didn’t reach.

-srbp-

Related:

April 2009:  “Continuing the Cougar S-92 Spin:  CBC or Cougar”

October 2009:  “When it comes to reckless speculation”

CBC SAR story grossly misleading

A CBC story on search and rescue off Newfoundland and Labrador seriously misrepresents the conclusions of a study conducted by air operational research and analysis staff of the Canadian Forces.

CBC’s online story claims in its title that “St. John’s [is the] best SAR base for oil: DND”. 

The story also claimed that:

The 2000 report for DND, titled The Impact of Offshore Oil Operations on East Coast Search and Rescue, questioned whether Gander was the best location for DND to base its Cormorant SAR helicopters.

But the report itself -  linked on the same CBC web page  - tells a very different story. Incidentally, the report, really just the slides and notes for a presentation, is also erroneously dated 2003 in the pdf version title even though the document clearly comes from December 2000. 

A detailed version apparently released in 2001 is mentioned at the end of the slides but CBC makes no reference to it in either the on air or on line stories.

The DND report looked at the impact offshore oil-related flights might have on search and rescue services.  It did not question “whether Gander was the best location” for search and rescue service in Newfoundland and Labrador.   The goal of the research was to determine what impact – if any – offshore flights to oil rigs would have on search and rescue service

In order to conduct the study, the researchers reviewed information on search and rescue performance generally in eastern Canada.  They then projected the potential impact of offshore helicopter operations.  They used several scenarios to try and forecast the potential impact  because, as the study notes, there was only two to three years of data on which to base experience.

As it turned out the DND study, like offshore board projections, grossly over-estimated the number of crashes in the offshore.

The conclusions – listed clearly on Slide 37 of the presentation – show that Gander is clearly the optimal location of search and rescue service based on a number of factors including weather. 

While the modelling used in the report appeared to show St. John’s as a better location for what it terms “Cougar-related” incidents,  “since incident rates for Cougar will probably be quite small, the analysis performed on the historic data should prove greater utility in a direct comparison of Gander with St. John’s.” 

In other words, because Cougar was unlikely to have a high number of incidents, the overall experience operating from a permanent base in Gander would likely tip the scales in favour of the continued use of Gander as the operating base.

-srbp-

Offshore safety and responsibility

CBC News reported Friday night that Cougar helicopters search and rescue helicopter can’t work at night. 

The story isn’t online.

The front-end of the story makes it sound like a winch problem but the supposed culprit is the lack of an auto-hover capability.  Apparently Cougar helicopters didn’t buy that feature.

Curious, given that the company knew when they bought the aircraft they had to provide a search and rescue (SAR) capability.

Curiouser too given that Sikorsky markets the S-92 as a SAR helicopter  complete with forward-looking infra-red radar.

Now while the locals are using this as fuel for their cause to get a search and rescue squadron in St. John’s, the real issue here is starting to look more and more like Cougar and the offshore oil companies making conscious decisions to live up to the letter of the offshore board regulatory requirement but not the spirit of it.

After all, if they were genuinely concerned for worker safety, wouldn’t they find  find the few extra bucks to buy a dedicated search and rescue helicopter that can do what needs to be done for their workers?

Incidentally, has anyone noted the number of times the provincial government – either the Premier or his natural resources/deputy premier stand-in – have tried to deny the government has any responsibility for offshore safety?

Funny that given that:

-  the provincial government regulates the offshore through the board, and,

- as one of those offshore oil companies we talked about a minute ago with employees at White Rose and eventually Hebron, they have a direct responsibility  - morally if nothing else - for ensuring their workers are safe.

It sure isn’t very comforting when the one organization that has responsibility for worker safety through not one but two of its activities tries to deny it has any responsibility at all for anything.

-srbp-

Cuts not growth on air force agenda

Via David Pugliese, the air force is considering options to cut upwards of $123 million from next year’s budget.
Expanding search and rescue helicopter services isn’t an option.

-srbp-

Enhancing east coast search and rescue

The crash of Cougar 91, carrying passengers to two of the country’s offshore oil platforms, has prompted calls for enhanced search and rescue service.

Unfortunately those calls are hampered by misunderstanding and misinformation. 

Retired Canadian Forces colonel Michel Drapeau described a forward deployment scenario today for audiences of the noon-time CBC Radio current affairs program radio Noon.  Drapeau talked about sending aircraft to St. John’s from existing SAR assets but Drapeau appeared to believe that existing SAR service is provided entirely from Nova Scotia.

Others have been calling for the creation of a new search and rescue squadron in St. John’s. This is justified on the basis that St. John’s is closest to the oil fields, among other things.

Existing SAR Resources

The eastern coast region covers the area from southern Nova Scotia to the northernmost tip of Labrador and extends eastward into the Atlantic to at least the 200 mile limit.  That huge expanse is covered currently by three squadrons, as follows:

• 413 Transport and Rescue Squadron, Greenwood Nova Scotia, operating four CH-149 Cormorant helicopters and one CC-130 Hercules. As the primary search and rescue squadron in Nova Scotia, the squadron maintains a response capability 24 hours a day throughout the region.  Supplemented by maritime patrol squadrons.  Secondary response (back-up0 is provided by 423 Squadron Shearwater, flying CH-124 Sea King.
• 103 Rescue Squadron, Gander Newfoundland, operating three CH-149 Cormorant helicopters.  It is responsible for providing a 24 hour response capability throughout Newfoundland and Labrador, with fixed wing support provided, as needed, from 413 Squadron and other Squadrons at Greenwood.  103 Squadron typically flies twice the national average in actual distress missions. Back-up by Cougar helicopters flying the S-92, an aircraft scheduled to enter Canadian Forces service as the CH-148 Cyclone.
• 444 Combat Support Squadron providing 12 hour SAR support to 413 and 103 with CH-146.

Current purchase plans

In early 2008, the Department of National Defence (DND) considered buying up to three more Cormorants to supplement the fleet of 15 originally purchased in 1998 for an initial price of about $600 million.  The new aircraft would replace one lost aircraft and address availability issues in some squadrons.  A shortage of spares and other issues resulting from the introduction of a new aircraft had reduced aircraft availability.

DND is currently finalising the purchase of up to 15 fixed wing search and rescue aircraft to replace the existing fleet of sic CC-115 Buffalo. The favoured aircraft appears to be the C-27 Spartan.

As well, DND is in the process of replacing the existing fleet of Hercules with the newer “J” model.

Some new ideas

Given the large geographic area as well as the terrain and climatic conditions on the east coast, the search and rescue capability needs to come from a mix of aircraft.  That’s the solution that has worked well.

Current attention is focused on St. John’s but the real weakness is the current basing which puts all the assets in the south and central with limited capability in the north.

Enhanced capability for east coast search and rescue could come from:

• Two additional Cormorants for 103 Squadron, based in Gander, bringing the complement from three to five.  At least one aircraft could be forward deployed to Goose Bay regularly and rotated back to gander as needed. This arrangement would also give an additional aircraft which could be forward deployed as needed to St. John’s in addition to the arrangement with Cougar. 
• Fixed wing aircraft for 103 aircraft coming from either the C-27J or, preferably,  CC-130J purchases.  If necessary more aircraft should be purchased or leased than called for in current plans.
• Installation of in-flight refuelling on the existing Cormorant fleet. Cormorant range is currently extended somewhat by relying on the Hibernia platform for emergency refuelling.

For a marginal increase in planned purchases, DND could provide significant added capacity. 

The in-flight refuelling tankers would be provided by the new CC-130J aircraft that would be dedicated to the SAR role.  Currently, 413 aircraft are also used as transports. 

Having dedicated in-flight refuelers would extend the range and time on station of Cormorants. Some aircraft will still have to fly longer distances but by refuelling in-flight, they will minimise the time currently taken by landing to refuel and launching again.

At the same time, these new fixed wing aircraft would not be multi-tasked as 413 Squadron is currently.  103’s new Hercules would also be available to support 413 Squadron.

Overall, this approach would enhance capability to the north where it is currently very limited.  As well, the overall east coast where the majority of daily activity takes place would have capability for longer periods, farther out to sea than is currently available. 

-srbp-

“Hard landing”: Cougar S-92 crash chronology

Adapted from The Telegram:  [BP notes in square brackets.]

Here's a brief timeline of the events of March 12 when Cougar Helicopters flight 91 crashed into the ocean. [The tick tock on this incident was pretty well established by mid-afternoon on the day of the crash, based on official sources.  Initial timings were converted from ZULU to Atlantic time in error but the sequence and other details were known publicly.  Times below are Newfoundland Daylight Savings Time (Universal Time/ZULU less 3.5), presented in 24 hour format.]

0940 local- Mayday call from the Cougar Helicopters flight. [According to the COUGAR website this scheduled flight launched at 0900 with destination given as “SRF-HIB”.  That translates as Seas Rose FPSO and Hibernia.   According to a company spokesperson on Friday, the pilot had indication of “zero oil pressure” in the main rotor gearbox and immediately began a return to base.

MAYDAY is a call indicated an emergency with imminent or immediate threat to the aircraft.  The fact that the pilot declared a MAYDAY reflects the seriousness of the issue and also may reflect the tight safety protocols of the company.  Were the issue of less significance, the pilot would have likely declared PAN PAN PAN which denotes a major issue but not one carrying an imminent or immediate threat.]

0948 local  - Helicopter ditches in the Atlantic 55 kilometres east of St. John's. [Position given in the CAPORS report filed the day of the crash shows it as approximately that distance from St. John’s.]

1000 local - Transportation Safety Board notified.

1012 local - Provincial Airlines ice patrol plane arrived and saw the helicopter inverted in the water. [This is a significant point to bear in mind for all subsequent discussion. The PAL aircraft  - directed to the scene as part of the SAR effort – arrived within 25 mins of ditching and reported one or two life rafts deployed, two survival suits in the water and an inverted aircraft.  Local weather has been reported as winds 20 knots with two to three metre seas.

Globe and Mail: “Of the two [people] in the water, one was observed face down. They saw no sign of flares or smoke or anyone waving from the life rafts,” he [PAL chairman Thomas Collingwood] said. “What we've learned from our crew is that they definitely had a hard landing.”

This suggests very strongly that contrary to initial rumour, the aircraft did not remain upright in the water for very long if at all.  The NTSB investigation including an analysis of flight data recorders will give a much more accurate picture, however, the initial details reported by credible observers seems clear in its implications. This also bears on questions that have been raised about the personal location transponders which reportedly did not activate.]

1034 local - Canadian Forces C-130 Hercules airplane arrived at the scene. [ From 413 Transport and Rescue Squadron, 14 Wing Greenwood Nova Scotia.]

1110 local - Cougar 61 arrived on scene, and shortly after hoisted survivor Robert Decker out of the water. Cougar flight 91 was no longer in sight. [COUGAR provides search and rescue (SAR) services.  According to official comment reported in local media, COUGAR was already tasked to provide back-up to 103 Squadron Gander while the squadron conducted training exercises near Sydney, Nova Scotia.  Even if 103 had been in Gander on 12 Mar 09, its aircraft would have been 30 mins flying time to St. John’s plus the time from St. John’s to the crash location.  COUGAR SAR was closest and arrived on scene 72 mins after ditching, if this timeline is correct.]

1128 local - The first Cormorant [CH-149] rescue helicopter arrived at the crash scene.

[Telegram] Source: Joint Rescue Co-ordination Centre

-srbp-