Kremlinology 27: Going negative early has its risks

Newfoundlanders and Labradorians can be forgiven this week if they thought they’d entered the savage world of American politics complete with its intense and highly orchestrated personal attacks.

While the 2011 provincial election campaign has been underway since last spring, the provincial Conservatives went negative this week with a pre-emptive attack on the Liberal party.  The pretext for the attack was the opposition office’s new communications director, Craig Westcott.

Conservative leader Danny Williams was characteristically blunt in justifying both the attack itself and the violation of the province’s privacy laws by the release of an e-mail Westcott wrote to the Premier’s office in February 2009.

I did feel it was important that the people of the province know who they’re dealing with and what they’re dealing with when this man is now an integral part of the official opposition in this province.

The task of leading the attack went to Kevin O’Brien, recently promoted from a low-level portfolio to the slightly more demanding job of municipal affairs. O’Brien noted the idea as well of letting people know what  - supposedly - they could expect from the Liberals:

It's sad really to see the Opposition take that path because what I see is a fellow that can't even contain himself with regard to expressing that hatred."

These statements stand out because they characterise something that had not occurred.  Both Williams and O’Brien drew attention to what they considered Westcott’s personal “hatred” for the Premier. 

Westcott has been characteristically blunt in his criticism of Williams, but his comments have been typically not as personal as Williams presents them.  And sure, Westcott made plain  - before he started the job – that he was concerned about Williams’ impact on politics and the potential the Williams’ Conservatives could win all 48 seats in the provincial legislature.  But at the point O’Brien mentioned the e-mail, the opposition itself hadn’t gone anywhere near negative.

Interestingly, Westcott described Williams accurately in 2007:

it's impossible to avoid being negative about a leader who is so negative himself, especially about his critics and some of the people who try to do business in this province.

And Williams and his crowd took great offense at anything and everything Westcott said.  For his part, Westcott released a raft of e-mails with Williams’ communications director at a time when Westcott published a local newspaper and couldn’t get an interview with Williams. Westcott ran for the federal Conservatives in 2008, largely as a personal gesture in reaction to Williams’ anti-Harper crusade.  One of the consequences is that CBC stopped using him as a commentator after the election.

That isn’t just background for the most recent shots in an ongoing personal feud,  nor does it suggest that both sides are equally guilty of anything. Westcott started his new job on Monday morning.  On Wednesday, the Conservatives launched the assault. Until then, there was nothing other than the known animosity between Westcott and Williams. The point to note is that the Conservatives characterised what Westcott and the Liberals would do in the future. 

But that prediction – and all the negative implications – are entirely a fiction created by Williams’ Conservatives.

Going negative isn’t something new for Williams.  He likes the ploy and has used it on everyone from Stephen Harper to a previously unknown lawyer named Mark Griffin.  Around the same time Westcott sent the now infamous – and previously private – e-mail, Williams labelled Griffin a traitor.  Williams also started a lengthy battle with the Globe and Mail over a column that speculated about Williams’ possible motives in expropriating assets from three private companies in central Newfoundland.

Nor is it the first time Williams has tried to put words into someone else’s mouth.  in the most famous episode cabinet minister John Hickey sued then opposition leader Roger Grimes for defamation.  The case quietly disappeared because Hickey sued Grimes not for what Grimes said but for what Williams attributed to Grimes.

The provincial Conservatives are a tough and effective political organization.  They bring message discipline and zeal to the table. On top of that they have an army of enthusiastic sock puppets who will fill any Internet space and radio talk show with pre-programmed lines. Going nasty and negative is second nature to them.

The curious thing about the episode is that Williams could easily have waited until the first lump of mud came hurling his way. 

But he didn’t.

He sent O’Brien out as his crap flinger, first.

Taking the first shot, going negative in this way, this early in a campaign would be a risky venture in any case in Newfoundland and Labrador. Most voters aren’t engaged in politics and the overwhelming majority aren’t thinking about the election yet.  Local politics is anything but the highly competitive, ideologically-divided wasteland of the United States. People don’t like taking the battle-axe to the heads of their neighbours and friends. 

Politics can be competitive, but heavily negative campaigning doesn’t bring any great benefits.  Going negative early carries a risk of alienating people from the Conservatives and from politics generally. And it’s not like Williams has a surplus of voter support he can afford to tick off with negative campaigning.  He won in 2003 and again in 2007 with about the same number of votes, about the same share of total eligible vote.  That’s because Williams’ voters consist of a core of traditional Conservative supporters plus a group of voters who have voted for other parties, usually Liberal, in the past.  

For someone with Williams’ reputation, however, there is the added danger that yet more relentless negativity will affect his own support. Voters may not be able to stomach a full year of his highly concentrated political bile on top of the seven years they’ve already witnessed. Even Conservatives have been known to revolt against Williams’ diktats.  In 2008, Conservatives in St. John’s South-Mount Pearl voted heavily for the New Democratic Party, despite the fact that four prominent cabinet ministers campaigned for the Liberal. In other ridings, they just stayed home in response to Williams’ personal anti-Harper crusade.

There are signs that voters, generally, in some parts of the province are discontented if not slightly cranky. Williams’ Conservatives have already started trying to mollify concerns over some issues. Public money is flowing freely in announcements about spending for new outdoor basketball courts or cassettes for x-ray machines.  A news conference heralding a new case of DVDs or a packet of screws can’t be far behind. 

The provincial Conservatives have also telegraphed that they are worried about voter attitudes toward the party, generally. Maybe it wouldn’t take much to see the sort of rejection of the Conservatives that happened in the Straits and White Bay North spread to other districts along the northeast coast and other parts of central and western Newfoundland and into Labrador.

In a sense, going negative early suggests the Conservatives are particularly sensitive about any prospect that a resurgent Liberal Party might be able to capitalise on voter discontent. It reinforces the idea that Williams’ personal smear of Marystown mayor Sam Synyard had more to do with a fear of political rivals than anything else.

In the insider baseball world of political reporting in this province, this week’s drama about an e-mail and a communications director may looks like one thing to some people.  But if you look more closely, another picture may appear.

No matter what, the next 12 months could bring some of the most interesting political developments in years.

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Outside the Overpass Update:  The Overpass is to Newfoundland and Labrador politics as the beltway is to American federal politics.  In that light, consider this e-mail from the province’s other daily that puts the week’s game of insider baseball in perspective:  “Get back to work”.

Going negative this early has its risks.

Kremlinology 26: Magma Displacement

In the Hunt for Red October, a computer used by an American hunter-killer submarine to identify noises in the ocean mistakes a new type of Soviet propeller noise as a type of earthquake.

Magma displacement.

In politics, it is easy to hear a noise and think it is one thing when the cause is something else.

Take – for example – Danny Williams’ most recent petty, venomous attack on Sam Synyard, the mayor of Marystown.

Some people may think this is just Danny waging the sort of scurrilous personal attack that is his political stock-in-trade, his default setting.  And as sure as Danny Williams had nothing to do with recent oil windfalls in the provincial treasury, so too has he shown a marked preference for the political version of the hockey player’s cheap hit in the corner, the spear.

A few things about this most recent Williams smear point to another cause that produced the usual cross check. 

First, Williams noted in his remark after the cabinet shuffle that Sam Synyard complained during the early days of the Igor clean-up – according to Williams anyway -  that the provincial government had not done enough after another hurricane. That isn’t the way Synyard came across back in September. It’s also very strange that Williams had plenty of opportunity at the time to smack Synyard but didn’t. Why he brought the whole thing up three weeks later seems odd.

Second, Williams and Synyard are actually on the same wavelength.  As the Premier readily noted, the provincial government is ready to pour cash into yet another private sector company.

Third, you’ll find that not only did the Premier revisit the whole Synyard affair for a second day, Premier wannabe Darin King and his fellow cabinet minister Clyde Jackman, chimed in add their voices to the din.

These members of a Reform-based Conservative Party seem a tad sensitive. Just like the political sensitivity displayed during the Igor response.  Bridge news conferences when the news story was really somewhere else.  Cabinet ministers jumping on any signs of discontent.

And then on CBC on Thursday evening, more stories of discontent on the Burin Peninsula with the slowness of provincial financial aid for people devastated by Igor.

There’s only one more detail you need to add to get the whole picture.  Danny called Sam a Liberal.

There is the key to the whole thing. People on the Burin Peninsula aren’t happy with Danny Williams, Darin King and Clyde Jackman.  There are lots of unhappy people out there after a series of natural disasters since 2003.  That’s one of the reasons why the very first thing the provincial emergency response people made sure to tell everyone after Igor was to get their claims filed early.

You can really tell the political sensitivity because the filing claims is the thing Danny highlighted for people on the day of the storm.  He really played up the cash.  And then the day after the storm,  Danny and his merry band hopped helicopters to tour the Burin Peninsula.  That’s how they showed their concern. Even though the Bonavista Peninsula took a demonstrably harder hit, Danny showed up on the Burin. The fact that this political showboating only pissed people off more was just a bonus.

What evidently scares Danny, Clyde and Darin politically shitless is that any politician might do as Danny is wont to do and take political advantage of all that discontent.  They know, or at least they think, that this is the sort of issue that could motivate voters and turn around a couple of seats in the next election.  It only needs a politician smart enough to hit the sore point. 

Attacking Sam Synyard personally is Danny’s way of trying to drive a potentially dangerous political rival off a potentially devastating issue for the for the Conservatives. It’s that simple.

Unless you connect all the dots, though, you’d only see more of the same superficial Danny-noise.

But if you know what to look for, you’ll see the magma displacement that is causing trembling in the political earth in some places.  This is not unusual rumbling, mind you, but in the imaginary world created by Danny Williams – the world where all is perfect and he alone is master – any sign of problems, any opening for an opponent is like a hurricane, earthquake and tidal wave rolled into one.

Oh yes.  Some places, plural.

It’s not just the Burin or even the Great Northern.  Labrador West, sections of the northeast coast.  They are all places where the locals are unhappy with the current administration. To the Conservatives they are threats to life and limb.

And to the other parties they are potential opportunities.  That’s what has Danny, Clyde and Darin and all their friends so jumpy.

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Kremlinology 24: The Whine List

The Old Man likes to bitch about stuff.

After 61 years, he’s gotten good at it.

For the past seven years he has liked to bitch about his current job, the one he campaigned for.  People aren’t grateful enough.  He has to deal with too many “distractions”, stuff like a request from someone who wants a copies of all his public speeches.

For some reason that was a problem.

For some reason that was such a problem the Old Man’s staff originally slapped a $10,000 bill on the guy to try and discourage him.

Whine, moan, bitch and complain.

Blah, blah, blah.

In the National Post fluff piece on Wednesday, the Old Man couldn’t resist a little bitching about politics.  This is not unusual.  The Old Man likes to bitch about his chosen profession. Apparently politics distracts the province’s most successful politician from running the province:

That would be my preference, I’ll be honest with you, if I could just roll up my sleeves … and spend 99% of my time running the place.

Now, to be frank, this sounds a bit like an excuse.  Whenever the Old Man gripes about the time he doesn’t spend running the province, it sounds like he is trying to explain why something or other hasn’t happened. Like he is trying to tell why he failed or shagged up.

Mind you, none of this fits with his other claim that everything these days is spiffy and perfect, especially compared to the past  - thanks entirely to him.

But that’s another issue.  For now, just let that gripe cum excuse settle into your brain for some time later on.

Instead, for this post, just notice the list of complaints the Old Man trotted out this time.  Number One on the Old Man’s Whine List is this:

In politics, you have to deal with the internal politics of your own party.

Whatever does that mean?.

There are problems inside the provincial Conservative Party?  People are unhappy with something. 

Are they surprised to find they are part of a Reform-based Conservative Party, rather than the Progressive Conservative party of a short while ago?

Heaven forbid it could be with the Old Man’s leadership.  Most observers likely thought that the troubles that beset other parties – stuff like overblown egos and frustrated leadership aspirations – just don’t happen in The Party the Old Man Created By Himself from whole cloth, without help from anyone and where nothing existed before.

So what sorts of internal politics could be occupying so much of Danny Williams’ time that he can’t give proper attention to the province?

Well, maybe it has something to do with when the Old Man finally decides to leave and who will replace him.  Not like we haven’t seen the odd sign or two about that before. You can tell this is a sensitive issue inside the The Party The Old Man Made because it attracts the usual collection of sock puppets and fanboys.

Or maybe it is something a bit more mundane.

Like the stuff you do just because you have to do it.

Or two cabinet ministers deciding to pack it in suddenly and unexpected only adding to the string of miseries that added up to be 2009 for the Old Man.

Yes, there’s plenty to gripe about if you are prone to negativity.

It’s just odd sometimes what those people chose to complain about first.

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Kremlinology 23: a little something for everyone

Newbie member of the House of Assembly Paul Davis picked up a rather conspicuous new job on Tuesday.

He is the new legislative assistant for the municipal affairs department. 

Now this stands out for a bunch of reasons. 

First of all, this job doesn’t really exist, as such.  It’s one of those made-up jobs.  There are parliamentary secretaries as set down by the Parliamentary Secretaries Act. These people help ministers of large departments in what are effectively training positions for future cabinet ministers.

But legislative assistants?  They aren’t really mentioned.

That’s the second thing that makes this noticeable.  This appointment got a news release praising Davis to the hilt.  There’s no reference at all to what the job entails.

You might be surprised to find that Tracy Perry is the legislative assistant in InTRD.  She’s actually on the departmental website.  But there doesn’t seem to be a news release on her.

But what about Ed Buckingham, the guy representing St. John’s East?  Well, there is a single passing reference to him – by district, not name – as the legislative assistant for environment. Maybe he got punted from the job:  he isn’t on the departmental website any more.

Thirdly, this one stands out because of all the departments needing help, municipal affairs ain’t it. The department doesn’t generate much in the way of legislation so it’s pretty hard to imagine what Davis is going to be doing. Charlene could use Ed Buckingham to help her find where the boundary on her responsibilities are.  And if Ed had his turn at the assistant’s gig, then Davis’ police experience in finding things could come in handy for Charlene.

Fourthly, Davis’ appointment stands out because it is in a department where the minister is on the mend from a rather serious illness. Might that be the reason he is on the job now? If Whalen is still on the mend, then Davis might be able to take on some extra duties as a proto-minister without actually forcing a cabinet shuffle.

After all, a cabinet shuffle would be rather noticeable at this point.  Someone already pointed out that we are overdue for a Williams cabinet shuffle. Is this an effort to skate by?

Fifthly, Davis is rather junior to be getting a nice little plum.  He’s the last man in. Others – like say, political rainbow man Steve Kent -  have been around the House since 2007 doing little more than nursing their frustrated ambition.

Sixthly and perhaps most tellingly, Davis’ appointment draws attention to the number of people in Danny Williams’ caucus who are drawing extra pay.

There are 19 people in cabinet, four parliamentary secretaries (the maximum under the statute), one parliamentary assistant and at least two and maybe three of these strange birds called legislative assistants.*

Then there is the speaker, deputy speaker, chair of committees, deputy chair of committees, whip, caucus chair and the vice chair of the public accounts committee.

Altogether, that’s 33 people out of a 44 member caucus in a 48 seat legislature. In any normal legislature, that would be just about all the Tory caucus.  That’s about the same number of people drawing extras as we saw in the last days of Roger Grimes’ crowd and in the late 1980s as first Brian Peckford and then Tom Rideout staggered toward the end of the 1985 mandate.

In both instances, the parties had been in power for more than a decade. The extra pay helps to placate people who might never get a shot at cabinet in a caucus that might not get re-elected to government again.

In other cases, the extra pay is a way of keeping the peace among a restless and ambitious crew.  Politicians without much to do – and that would be most of the Tory caucus these days – have a disquieting tendency to spend their time brooding and plotting.  A few bucks can go a long way to distracting the potential revolutionaries from their course or co-opting a perceived rival.

But does any of that fit?

Maybe yes. 

Maybe no.

There’s more to the Davis announcement than the couple of paragraphs in the release. Sometimes with these things it takes a while for the story to emerge.

 

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*  There could be another one, by the by.  There’s also a passing reference to one for Joan Burke.  It's hard to tell if this is an elected member or – as would normally be the case – a reference to a political staffer called the legislative assistant.  The staffer is the one who helps the minister or house leader manage the administrative aspects of the House.

Kremlinology 22: House sitting and bills passed

The current sitting of the House of Assembly is slated to finish next Tuesday – Wednesday at the latest – and by the time it rises the the House is on track to pass 33 bills.

When was the last time the House sat until the second or third week of June for the spring sitting and passed 33 bills?

2007.

Yep.

The spring sitting before the provincial general election.

In other years since 2003, the House has closed at the very latest on June 4.

Interesting.

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Kremlinology 21: Tells

The local CBC is to the local Tory crowd as the Globe is to the local, umm, well the Tory/nationalist tribe.

It is the only news medium they pay attention to.

Just look at the number of times they reference the Globe about something related to this province either because it is or is not in Toronto’s national newspaper.  If it isn’t in the Globe it never happened.

Ditto CBC.

Item: Fred Hutton and NTV broke the story about Danny’s sooper sekrit trip to Florida to fix his heart problem.

The Chris Crocker Brigade attacked the CBC.

Listening to Cross Talk that day was like listening to a pack of enraged hyenas tearing kittens to pieces.

Just insane.

Item:  Danny files a complaint with the CBC ombudsman about a comment made by a local CBC producer in a story in the National Post. 

Item:  the editorial in the Western Star suggesting the Old man might consider packing it in if he is getting too tired and cranky.

Never got much attention until CBC posted it online.

And then all hell broke loose.

But don’t just look at the fact the Fan Club reacted to the location of the story.  Look as well at the content.  labradore picked it up.

It’s all fairly typical stuff for the Fan Club what with the sneering personal attacks in lieu of anything else or the fact that the editorial opinion of the newspaper was not signed. Again, a hunt apparently for the individual to be sliced and diced.

Rather than look just at that, though, look at the fact they reacted to what – according to them and the Old Man  - is supposedly a non-story.

If it wasn’t something playing on the minds, if the fear of his departure did not cause their stomach to shrink, then they wouldn’t have to work so viciously to deny it or spew so savagely at their mortal enemies, well enemies other than Reason and Civility.

Call it a tell or, as those of us not inclined to gamble might say, a dead give-away. There have been other little dead give-aways, like Ed Buckingham’s test drive last February of a eulogy line for the Old Man’s political career.

Or Jerome!’s moustache.

Or his shoulder twitches.  Check the House of Assembly video for Question Period on that one.

Or Tony the Tory’s letter to every paper in the province  to reassure himself it seemed that last falls’ political disaster in the Straits didn’t mean the Tories were dead as a political force.

But when it comes to tells, nothing is so telling as the fact the government crowd are predictable.

From the Lower Churchill illusion to Jerome!’s use of salaries and a personal attack on the exec director of the medical association to the old chestnut that Charlene flicked out about working for Quebec and not the province in the Abitibi thing, these guys have nothing new.

We can’t do a deal because this guy is blocking?  Like you never tried that line before and still got a deal at the end once the bullshit stopped?

Or like this government itself doesn’t try to and sometimes do business with the Great Satan to the West:

• Danny, Kathy and the five years of secret talks to get Hydro Quebec to take an ownership stake in the Lower Churchill, no redress?
• And environmentalist Charlene’s deal to burn used tires from here at a Quebec site? No pollution there, buddy.

There are plenty of signs if you open your mind to the possibility they exist.  The truth is there waiting to be seen.

And it all makes you wonder what would happen if not a single leader but a handful of credible potential cabinet ministers popped up on one or another of the other political sides.  People the rest of the province outside the Fan Club could see as the nucleus of a credible alternative administration.

The Tories would never notice, of course, until it appeared in the Globe or on the Ceeb.

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“Tell Danny I love him thiiiiiiiiis much” Update:  The legendary Tony the Tory displays his ignorance of how newspapers write editorials.

Yes Tony.  He is popular because he is right and right because he is popular.

Kremlinology 20: Who will replace Danny?

There’s a question that will likely be on the lips of most Newfoundlanders and Labradorians within 12 months.

Even if, by some strange set of circumstances, he decides to subject himself to another two full years of the kind of public ingratitude he’s seen over the past nine months, Danny Williams will likely have an increasingly hard time suppressing speculation about when he will retire and who will replace him. 

People may not have readily accepted the idea that someone in his own inner circle blew away the Premier’s plan to keep his heart surgery secret. But think of events of the past few months -  let alone the bizarre meltdown last week – and you can’t hit the local mall without finding someone wondering how much longer the Old Man will be around.

When Danny heads off to Ottawa later this week for a round of meetings on a bunch of subjects, it might be fun just to kick back and wonder who in the crowd he left behind has designs on his office.

Take Jerome Kennedy, for instance.  He’s got all the buzz of an heir apparent. Aside from the moustache incident earlier the year, Jerome has been trying to change his appearance and, by extension, the appearance of government from one of combativeness and nastiness to something a little more palatable.

But we’d all be pretty naive if we didn’t think Jerome knows already that he will have to present himself as a major change of style in order to succeed Williams. There are likely other things going on out of plain site.  The little political favours for people whose support he will need.  A job here, there and everywhere someone in the public service for his supporters.

Others are likely up to the same thing.

Like Joan Burke.  Creating a new department for her to set up has given her plenty of time to travel around the province meeting with public servants in the day and local Tories in the evening.  She’s reputed to have a war chest as big as her ambition. Plus, the new department allows her to soften up her tough-as-concrete image.

There are probably a few other caucus contenders quietly putting together their bands of supporters. 

Permits and licenses minister Kevin O’Brien at least looks like he has the Grecian formula for a run.  He may well have some cash and supporters left over from his abortive run the year Danny decided to go for it.  O’Brien was party president in 2000 but took a leave of absence as he contemplated taking a shot at the leadership.  Once Danny entered the race, Kevin knew enough to leave it alone.  He’d be a really long shot but then again, any potential candidate can always look to the 1989 long shot:  Tom Rideout.

Then there’s Tommy Osborne.  Scion of the townie Tory power family, Osborne’s name pops up in some conversations about potential leadership candidates after The Old Man leaves.  If nothing else he came out of the Cameron inquiry looking pretty good.  Osborne could  make a mark, even if he didn’t win, and that might be enough:  whoever wins the race will have to reward his or her competitors with decent cabinet jobs or risk civil war. Osborne could enjoy a second career in cabinet and still retire relatively young.

Don’t be surprised if Ross Wiseman or Darin King took a shot at the job or at least considered it. 

Other that that there aren’t any members of the current caucus who seem likely to run to replace Danny.  Natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale is likely to leave at the end of this term as is finance minister Tom Marshall.

As for the idea of an outsider coming in, that would be a long shot for sure.  Brian Tobin was the last one to try it and win from outside caucus.  But he started making his move quietly in late 1995 and was a politician the whole time. No one has ever come cold  - completely outside elected politics - into the top job in the incumbent party and hence the province.

One name you can cross off your list:  Wade Verge.  Seems his move away from the door was just a temporary, almost cruel joke.  Paul Davis, the most junior member of the legislature and the Tory caucus, now has the plum bit of seal skin vacated by Beth Marshall’s now senatorial tuchus.  Evidently someone really likes Davis.

Kremlinology is an inexact science.

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Kremlinology 19: Ass-kissing has its rewards

Wade Verge is apparently back in Hisself’s good graces.

One clue was Wade’s prominent place moving the Address in Reply to the Speech from the Throne during which Wade dutifully kissed The Boss’ hindmost regions with an enthusiasm not seen in the House of Assembly since the glory days of a former ambassador to Hy’s.

But the real clue to Wade’s new status is his meteoric shift of seats.  The fellow has gone from being right next to the door to sitting right up by the Speaker.  More importantly, Wade is now just inches away from Hisself, hisself.

It isn’t the treasury bench, but it’s a place of some prominence.

As proximity to The Old Man goes, Wade is way closer than the much beloved Diane Whelan. Wade is even closer than O’Brien The Embalmer. By the by, Kevin may not know where St. Anthony is, but he damn well knows where his meal ticket comes from.

Wade is in an august spot. The last ass to warm the particular bit of sealskin where Wade is now ensconced was none other than Senator Beth Marshall, as she now is.

Now for those who missed it, Beth may have had a bit of a disagreement with Hisself, but she remained a completely loyal foot-soldier right up to the time she was promoted to glory by their mutual friend, Steve.  When it came time to implement the Green report, Beth got the job.  If she was on the outs with The Old Man she’d never have gotten that job.

But anyway, whatever Wade did, he did it right.

You can tell by just how pretty he is sitting now compared to where he was perched just three months ago.

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Kremlinology 18: And that was W.A. Mozart with a little tune called Lacrimosa…

In some countries,  you can tell when the latest Great Helmsman is dead. 

The radio stations bombard listeners with sombre music of a classical bent for a few hours before the formal announcement is made. Brezhnev, Chernenko, Andropov, all got the warning treatment before being propped up for displays of ritual public grief and then stuffed in the Kremlin wall for posterity.

Well, there may not be any depressing music yet but we may already have begun to hear tests of the the eulogy for Danny Williams’ political career.

Tory backbencher Ed Buckingham called voice of the cabinet minister’s morning talk show on Friday to rebut some comments by an earlier caller about the Hibernia South deal. Maurice was out to lunch but Ed went a bit farther than necessary in defending the master’s honour when he got into the great wonderments of the deal just inked.

Ed picked up the thread about all the great knowledge and wisdom which is coming from  not just this deal but others.  Apparently before now, no one knew anything about oil and gas stuff.  But thanks to Glorious and Wondrous Leader’s efforts – according to Ed – we are learning more with each one and getting better and better at deal-making.

Then he tossed in the bit that was way too much.  The thing about WGL – according to Ed – is that he is always looking ahead to make sure that we his doting subjects, his sheep, his idiot children, his precious flock of stooges are looked after, all in preparation for the day when he is not around to lead us all in his usual wondrous and glorious fashion.

Now that line displayed an entirely patronising and belittling attitude toward the people of the province, let alone what it said about Ed and his fellow politicians currently sitting in the legislature.

And we’ve certainly heard the line about gaining knowledge and how that is a big part of these deals. Having an oil company is supposed to help “us” learn about oil stuff, like none of this has ever happened before in the history of the province.

What’s noticeable about this reference is that it is the first time – in light of the most recent unmentionable subject - that one of the truly faithful has dared to make any reference to the prospect that at some point someone else might have to put a hand to the tiller instead of the guy who has been doing it for the past seven years.

Even without reference to that most recent unmentionable subject, as distinct from the unmentionable subject Bob Wakeham mentioned, that seems to be about the only time some local Tories have floated the idea that Wondrous and Glorious Leader might actually not be here for the thousand years foretold in legend, the four terms joked about with VOCM or the one more election he told Fred Hutton about.

But if one of them does start talking about the post-Danny world, then it may not be so very far away after all.

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Kremlinology 17: Woof! Woof!

 

“If I collapse up here, please drag me to Seattle – because the Canadian Medical Association won’t have anything to do with me,” the Newfoundland and Labrador Premier said.

In politics, they call it a dog whistle.  That’s the use of coded language that sends a very particular message that can only be heard by those attuned to the code. 

In this case, the key word is “Canadian” and the concept is that the Canadian doctors  - like are just sooking because they couldn’t get to operate on The Other Great One.

It’s a theme that’s been running through Danny Williams’  comments since undergoing major heart surgery in the United States.  The doctors in Newfoundland and Labrador did a bang-up job.  When he had to look at options outside the province he went to another native son for advice.  This guy just happens to be a leading thoracic surgeon in New Jersey and he recommended a fellow in Miami. Williams did say that the option of having this surgery with this method done in Canada was never offered to him, but that, it seems might be nothing more than a lawyer’s careful choice of words.

Now that some Canadian surgeons are pointing out that the same procedure was available in Canada, it isn’t good enough for Danny Williams to rely on the idea that it was simply his choice.  He’s got to take a dig that fits both with his narrative on the surgery and, for those familiar with it, his highly defensive modus operandi.

Now the rather interesting thing is that as Williams slipped that one into his Thursday night speech at a small crowd in Vancouver, it appears that some of his homies have already started howling the same tune.

Telegram comment[ary]s editor Peter Jackson made very similar snide comments a couple of days ago in response to a blog post by Geoff Meeker criticising an [Telegram] editorial that may have been written in largest part by Jackson [Correction via Peter’s comment below:  “And I had no involvement whatsoever in the writing or even proofing of that Telegram editorial.]

Let me see,,, [sic] so it's you guys, some anti-Obamacare propagandists in the U,S,, and insecure mainland surgeons who think there's a big story here…

…

The Globe seems to have taken a cue from the defensive cardiologists, many of whom they [the Globe] likely hunted out themselves…

…

You can ramble on for ages about the merits of both systems. It has nothing to do with Danny Williams.

((I'm wearing my private opinionator hat herre, [sic] not that of a Telegram staffer.)

And then in the Friday Globe, there’s a letter to the editor from Marjorie Doyle:

Perhaps Mr. Williams should voluntarily undergo more surgeries and spread his custom among the pouting doctors.

Now maybe this is nothing more than three people who may share similar ideological views purely by chance taking a cue from a misleading headline in the Globe.  Read the story at the end of that link, incidentally, and you’ll notice the huge gap between what the doctors actually said and what the headline says.

Then again, it wouldn’t be the first time dog whistling turned up in local politics during Williams’ time in office.

And what better way to deflect the argument currently centring on him and his own choices than to make it into a fight between “us” and “them”.

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Dead Caterpillar Update

Apparently, Jerome accidentally lopped a bit of it off over Christmas so he took off the rest of it in order to keep everything looking neat.

So now it’s back.

Uh huh.

So by the same token  that would mean all those verbal tics last year just up and run off as if by magic too.

And over the past couple of weeks there was just a spontaneous and totally un-organized outpouring of venom and hatred aimed at certain news media for things they didn’t actually do.  yep.  Totally unprompted by any e-mails or calls people just magically said the same things at the same time which – purely by total coincidence  - happened to match exactly what the Premier’s Office wanted.

R-i-i-i-i-i-i-g--h-t.

Whatever helps you sleep at night, sunshine.

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Premier on the mend – office breaks “sacrosanct” privacy shroud

Despite the official claims that the Premier’s health is a matter which ought not be discussed whatsoever, both CBC news and VOCM – known derisively to some to stand for Voice Of the Cabinet Minister – have very similar stories about the Premier’s medical condition.

Not only did he have surgery in Florida, but we are now told that he is recuperating at his home in Sarasota.  Interestingly, scuttlebutt in Ottawa had him at the Mayo Clinic.  Turns out the Mayo has a site in Florida and it does the sort of surgery scuttle butt has it the Premier went to Florida to have.

And on top of that the stories from these local news sources include the detail that the surgery took almost three times as long as expected because there was more damage to the Premier’s heart than previously believed.

So much for sacrosanct.

So much too for the bile hurled at the CBC by every planted Cultist they could drag out of the greenhouses.

Apparently, though, the Prem is on the mend, which is very good to hear.

But notice that there are no stories from NTV on this nor does the Telly have a little blurb on its website that runs along the same lines.  You may recall that NTV actually broke the story and had some added details in the first few days that the Premier’s Office wasn’t releasing.

Nope.  NTV’s big story for the 18th on their website is about some mysterious creature sighted somewhere in the province. There’s something about a snow storm, ferries and the Humber Valley Resort.

Zippo about the Premier.

Seems that the Premier’s Office is turning to their usual trusted conduits to float out stories they want people to have.

The Thot Plickens After Midnight Update:  Seems this story is a little more curious than it first appeared.  NTV did indeed have Fred Hutton live from Florida – as noted by “Abel” in the comments – and they covered all the details everyone else is reporting.

But on top of all that NTV has an exclusive interview coming with DW from his home in Florida.  Among other – and obvious  - things related to Williams’ recent surgery, Fred Hutton will be asking the Premier about his political future.

So, let’s take back the CBC/VOCM angle entirely.  First appearances were wrong.

But in place of that we have the strangeness that NTV has been able to run with this story  - if not drive it  - by being consistently ahead of everyone else.  They clearly threw the Premier’s crew off stride at the beginning.  As if that wasn’t enough, NTV has been able to  gain an exclusive interview with the Premier on top of everything else.

The political future question is going to be a very interesting one to get answered.

 

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Related: 

• “Deep Throats”
• “Kremlinology 16:  Deep T’roat”
• “The Screaming of the Banshees”

Kremlinology 16 (Update): Deep T’roat

This is more like a blast from the past but it is curious artefact in light of recent events.

From December 2007, a comment by then-fish minister Loyola Hearn on the sour relationship between the crowd of Conservatives in Sin Jawns and the crowd of Conservatives in Ottawa:

"There are times I'm sure I know as much as what's going on in cabinet and caucus or on the eighth floor as the premier does," said Hearn, referring to Williams's office in Confederation Building in St. John's.

"I always do. That's why we can always be one step ahead of him," Hearn said in a year-end interview with CBC News. "I have friends throughout cabinet and caucus."

That doesn’t mean Loyola is Deep T’roat. What it shows is that the idea is already there of some measure of tension and dissent within Conservative circles.

At the time, Danny Williams dismissed the idea [of traitorous dissent within the ranks] with characteristic bluster. The faithful deployed, too, with their now-signature set of over-the-top messages, delivered in one example by permits and licenses minister Kevin O’Brien.

But still, that didn’t stop Hisself from demanding every member of his caucus swear a sort of loyalty oath during the 2008 federal election and the Family Feud that caused massive discontent within the party.  That was about 10 months after Hisself dismissed the whole of idea of loose caucus and cabinet lips in the first place and, on a go forward basis it seemed to telegraph a huge level of unease or uncertainty.

After all, if their loyalty was unquestionable – the essence of the December claim – then it seems odd to question it at all let alone in a way which someone leaked to the local media. Beth Marshall – now a senator – is the only one who said she wouldn’t support the anti- federal campaign.

Contacted by The Telegram via e-mail at the time, only six Conservatives would give an answer publicly.  The rest of the Tory caucus ignored it, apparently, although the Telegram piece does end with an interesting reference:

Outgoing federal cabinet minister Loyola Hearn has charged that the premier's office is threatening those who may aid the federal Conservatives, citing "a growing number of calls we have received from concerned caucus members and Progressive Conservative staffers."

Williams has denied the allegation.

You see, it is interesting because it matches up with what was going around the local Tory circles at the time.  There were a great many, for example, in St. John’s South-Mount Pearl who were extremely upset that Kathy Dunderdale, Paul Oram and other prominent local Tories were out door-knocking for the Liberal in the riding.

The idea of friction within the provincial Conservative camp isn’t new.  Some of it has been known to flare up in public.  And in 2008, don’t forget, St. John’s South is where the Tory vote didn’t stay home like it did in other ridings.  By all appearances and indications, a goodly chunk of the Conservative vote did head to the polls.  And voted overwhelmingly for the Orange candidate.

That definitely was not the officially sanctioned Family Feud choice.

10 years is a long time to crush every bit of difference and ambition in a crowd of ambitious political types.  A decade is a long time to demand unquestioning obedience or face the consequences of cashiering or a miserable seat.

And even if that weren’t true, there is still the fairly obvious unease resulting from both the by-election loss last fall and the fairly obvious fact the win in the other seat required every member of caucus and a whole lot of political staffers in order to hang onto what should have been a safe seat and an easy win.

“Atrophy” was one word used privately by someone who ought to know in order to describe what has happened to the district-level party machinery across the province.

There’s something to be said for that.  It’s pretty bizarre to shut down a government for a couple of months to fight two by-elections.  Historically in this province, incumbent parties can usually manage to walk and chew electoral gum simultaneously.  Work gets delegated and the Leader/Premier and senior cabinet get deployed only as needed.

And it’s not like Hisself didn’t say loudly and clearly and repeatedly in 2006 – although it seemed like everyone missed it – that he wouldn’t be hanging around for the Hat Trick.

10 years is a long time in politics anywhere.

And it’s a long time for people to be studying how things work in practice.  Size up the strengths and weaknesses.

And then lay in wait to take advantage of a golden opportunity.

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Kremlinology 16: Deep T'roat

Who is it?

The province's NTV station reported the news, but didn't reveal its source for that information.

That’s the second leak this week about the Premier’s health.


The first leak blew away whatever plan there was in the first place to keep Danny Williams’ health condition a complete secret from the general public. The reasons why they wanted to play it that way are irrelevant (although that’s what the plants will continue to harp on.)

The real mystery in all this is the identity of the person within the Premier’s circle who is following his or her own agenda.

Deputy premier Kathy Dunderdale can drone on and on with all the usual self-serving, sanctimonious crap she wants about the news media.

The truth is that unless someone very consciously and deliberately contacted NTV – and apparently only NTV -  no one would be any the wiser of where the Premier went and what happened while he was there.

Who is Deep T'roat?

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Inside Knowledge

For those who may have missed it the first time, “Kremlinology 14:  Dead Caterpillars”.

For those who scoffed at the notion the first time the post appeared, notice how suddenly things start to fit together as other elements of the story emerge.

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Kremlinology 15: as warm and fuzzy as your old blankie

Last fall was rough on the provincial Conservatives.

Back to back resignations followed by the by-election loss in the Straits and the strong Liberal vote in Terra Nova.  That’s old news to Bond Papers readers.

Things are rough for the Conservatives in Corner Brook as well.

Between the push-back over the Grenfell mess and the possibility that the Kruger mill may shut its doors permanently, there are plenty of reasons for provincial Conservatives to be sweating the possibility of a strong anti-Tory hum on the Humber.

You can tell things are rough because the Premier took the time to head to Corner Brook last week for a party fundraiser – a point the conventional media neglected to point out - encouraged the Kruger unions to give the company whatever it needs to save the mill and pick a fight with people who had pissed him off:  He took a shot at Grenfell principal Holly Pike and others. 

The local paper – The Western Star – warned him about the problems before the speech and then spanked him publicly for his attack on Pike after the speech.

That last bit is a sure sign of how bad things are for the Tories.  What they said was nothing strong at all, but in a province where  - since 2003 - the conventional media like to serve warm milk and cookies editorially, a couple of simple declaratory sentences can come across like  a cross between the 95 Theses and the Declaration of the Rights of Man.

The real sign of the troubled times in Tory circles is the remarkable change in tone.  Suddenly ‘stachless health minister Jerome Kennedy took the trouble to call an open line show this week when it isn’t polling season and nothing is exploding.

He talked at length about the changes he wants to bring after the budget is over.  Kennedy wants to start travelling around the province, talking to the great unwashed masses in their own native habitat. He wants to get real opinions from real people on things the government could be and should be doing.  

We are not talking complete farce here.  Kennedy spoke in calm tones and used language about including people.  A lesson he learned in the by-elections, so Kennedy said.

That’s right in line with another sign, namely a recent tour by several cabinet ministers of towns along the coast of Labrador.  Even Tommy Hedderson took the time to get out of St. John’s and visit real people in real towns.  Hedderson you may recall was the guy who – during the Straits by-election – talked about how wonderful it was to get back into that part of the province for the first time since 2001.  Yes, the fisheries minister hadn’t been able to visit a district with fish troubles until his Leader dragged him along to go save the Leader from political embarrassment.

And let’s not forget the funding announcements.  Before Christmas it was the new hospital for Corner Brook which – we now learn – may well be a tertiary care centre to rival the one in Sin Jawns.  There is money for Grenfell, the bags of which was something the Premier duly noted as he pointed how some people were insufficiently grateful for his generosity.

One of the Labrador ferries will be relocating to Corner Brook, at least for the winter at least for now.

Now there’s Terry French heading to Corner Brook to make an announcement on funding for the provincial government’s arts centres. That’s on top of the money French already announced for the local stadium.  This was not, the finance minister would assure us, a sign that budget allocations have already been made for 2010.

These sorts of things may be old hat everywhere else in the civilised world but in this province since 2003, they are almost unheard of.  Until now, the whole business of keeping in tune consisted of letting cabinet ministers work from an office set up wherever in the province they happened to live.  And even then, the main duty of the ministers-at-home was to keep an eye on dissent and make sure everyone stayed in line. Think hard hat and shovel and road paving in Labrador if you want a classic example of the cabinet minister without a real portfolio.

Now undoubtedly some wag will point out that Jerome! is just angling to replace The Boss.  Shave the ‘stache, they will say and they are right.

But that doesn’t mean that the cabinet as a whole might not also be working along with Jerome to change their collective political fortunes.  While The Boss is busy tilting at hydro towers in New Brunswick, the guys who actually will be running for re-election in 2011 might be noticing they don’t have much time to shift the whole tone and approach of the administration.

Angry just doesn’t work all the time in politics, as any experienced politician and political scientist will tell you. People grow weary. And when the anger is directed inward, when people get smashed in the head for just having an opinion, it doesn’t take too long before people start to look for an alternative to the anger ball.

That’s one of the big lessons from last fall, if you really are clued in about provincial politics. Things started to shift.

And when the shift started, the local Tories seem to have decided to make a shift of their own.

Coming on like a warm, fuzzy blankie seems to be aimed at making sure that whatever alternative people move toward, it will still be blue.

Just a blue without all the anger in it.

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Kremlinology 14: Dead Caterpillars

Brian Tobin did it.

Roger Grimes did it.

Well, yes both served their political party as leader and served the province as Premier.

But before they became premier, they took the rather obvious step of shaving off a moustache they’d sported for years before.

There’s no coincidence.  As the groomers and other hangers-on start to gather around prospective political leaders, one of the first things they suggest is that the ‘stache has to go.

And go it does if the pol has leadership aspirations.  In countries following the British parliamentary tradition, facial hair on politicians generally – but especially on first ministers – has been out of fashion for a century.

After the fashion changed, along came the rationalisation that people don’t trust their first ministers to have beards or moustaches. There’s probably no empirical evidence to support that but it is there all the same.

And you can be guaranteed the advice will come to a politician who wants to lead anywhere:  shave it off.

It doesn’t matter if the thing works aesthetically.  Take a Gander at Jerome!’s official mug shot. The moustache is neat and well trimmed.  It’s also a natural colour, something St. John’s municipal politicians could notice. The ‘stache also gives him the appearance of having a mouth sized in proportion to his face.

He looks pretty good.

So the only reason he would dump the dead caterpillar – short of some sudden, previously undiagnosed skin condition – is political.

Here’s the new Jerome!, incidentally, in a screen cap from a recent CBC television interview.

The difference is quite striking.

Striking yes, but in some respects a difference brought on by the same limited, unimaginative thinking that wanted to take Trevor Taylor and put him through an Eliza Doolittle kind of sanitizer merely to get rid of his accent.

In Trevor’s case, his accent was not impenetrable and his tendency to use colourful language reinforced his core strength:  he spoke sincerely, honestly and straightforwardly.

In Jerome!’s case, the moustache didn’t really serve as a distraction. What had been working against him was his tendency to speak rapidly and  - when he got excited - to have his voice head for a pitch heard only by dogs. 

Jerome! has evidently been working on speaking more calmly and speaking in the lower part of his range.  All that has helped him immensely and his recent performance in the new portfolio has been extremely good.

But getting rid of the moustache?  That’s probably the least of his worries.

The only thing Jerome and his handlers have done is sent an unmistakeable signal that he wants to be Premier.

Oh yes.

Mustn’t forget.

And that he might get a chance at the job sooner than people think.

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Kremlinology 13: the seat by the door

Used to be Ray Hunter, a backbencher who reportedly had his fair share of differences with the direction some things went.

Now it’s Wade Verge.

Wade’s seat is as far from the Speaker’s chair as one can get on the government side of the legislature and it is right next to a door everyone uses to go in and out.  It is not exactly prime real estate.

It may also be a clue as to who is in favour and who better mind their “P”s and “C”s.

That’s not the only peculiarity in the House of Assembly seating chart.  Usually when the government side has too many to sit on the government side, they tend to stick the lowest seniority fellows over with the Opposition.

Not in the current session.

There’s the last Boy Scout, Steve Kent, marked by the red “1”, accompanied by a whole bunch of other fellows of about the same or more recent vintage. And truth be told that’s where Wade and Harry should be.

But they aren’t.

Instead there are a trio of parliamentary assistants  - designated by the red “3” - who ought to be over closer to their ministers so they could confer on important matters without having to walk all the way around behind the Speaker.  They are pseudo-ministers after all and as such should be over with their fellow assistants. They should be in the seats on the very back of the government side and the crowd up by the Speaker (marked by a red “2”) should be back one tier.

Now that other crowd of red “2”s on the right there are also a bit out of place. The middle tier of that last block down on the right there seem to be a bunch of ministers who don’t hold a high prominence in the cabinet.  proximity to the Premier and the Speaker are huge clues to prominence in the usual way of seating people.

Oddly enough, that would include Ross Wiseman who, while he gets a front bench space due to seniority perhaps, is still only a couple of steps from being out through the centre doors (denoted by the bit of a bracket on the extreme right). His distance from the Premier and the Speaker seems a wee bit odd.

Now all of this might mean nothing at all.

But then again, this whole Kremlinology thing started with Trevor Taylor.

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Kremlinology 12: Dead caribou edition

Odd -  dontcha think  - that members of the Innu Nation chose the last part of last week to challenge the provincial government on caribou hunting in an area where previously they’d been generally supportive.

Every year, usually in the spring, some Innu from Quebec cross the border and take down a few of the very few remaining caribou in the Red Wine herd.  There’s always a flurry of news coverage and righteously indignant news releases from the provincial wildlife minister.

This year, the controversy arose in November, coincidental with the Churchill Falls/Lower Churchill meeting of Atlantic Premiers and involved some of the Innu from Sheshatshiu.

The spokesperson was Peter Penashue who – again just coincidentally -  has also been front and centre lately, discussing the latest round of never-ending discussions to finalise a land claims deal that was supposedly finalised last fall and which Penashue recently said actually wouldn’t be done for another three years or so.

On the caribou issue, Penashue was hammering away at the supposed lack of consultation between the Innu and the provincial government on wildlife management.

More interestingly though, here’s how the Globe contrasted Penashue from five years ago when the Quebec Innu were doing the spring hunt and Penashue today:

"No one knows for sure if Red Wine woodland caribou were killed, or, if they were, how many," he wrote then in The Globe and Mail.

"The hunt in the Red Wine caribou range was not just an illegal protest, it was completely inconsistent with Innu values. ... Putting a threatened caribou herd at further risk can never be justified on the basis of aboriginal rights."

He said last night that "I obviously wouldn't concur with" that statement now, saying that he had lost faith in the provincial government's ability to manage the caribou.

Interestingly, Premier Danny Williams described the Innu land claims agreement as being crucial to the Lower Churchill:

Williams recently told a Telegram editorial board that if the New Dawn Agreement with the Labrador Innu isn't ratified, the Lower Churchill deal would die.

That’s from a story in the Saturday edition which isn’t on line.

The timing is rather interesting, though. 

If the Innu were really close to settling the land claims issue with the provincial government that is so crucial to the Lower Churchill project, then it seems odd the point man on the New Dawn agreement would be out on such a particular day in such a conspicuous way tackling the provincial government for its lack of consultation.

We’ll all know something is up for certain – he said perhaps only somewhat facetiously  - if the Fan Klub starts linking Penashue to Hydro Quebec and Shawn Graham.

And the Pentavaret.

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Federal Kremlinology 1: Connie Unease

So, did Jane Taber’s informant actually do air quotes around the word “pollster”, or did she add that for extra effect on her own? 

You know, a creative-reporter-license kinda thing?

That’s a funny thing about something someone is supposed to have said.  There are no quotations marks.

Must be something about Connies  - like Jane’s informant - that make them telegraph their fears.

Meanwhile, in Frenchman’s Cove, Newfoundland, at least one provincial Connie must be clicking his heels together frantically and chanting ‘There’s no place like home”  at the top of his lungs.  

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