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The Sir Robert Bond Papers turns seven years old today.

The purpose remains simple enough, as described in the first anniversary post:

While much has changed in the past year, the core goal for the Bond Papers is still the same: to contribute to an informed discussion of public policy issues. It started with the offshore and in the first few weeks that proved to be the issue that dominated.

Since then, there have been posts on everything from the fishery to alleged spy planes flying through Newfoundland and Labrador, Titan missiles and economic development. Some posts are light-hearted and humourous. Others have been deeper and wordier. Whether they succeeded in being funny or serious, as the case may be, is best left to its readers.

On the fourth anniversary, in 2009, your humble e-scribbler posted draft whistleblower legislation. 

In 2011, the anniversary post went by the wayside in favour of the daily fare:  Muskrat Falls financial problems.

This morning, your humble e-scribbler started a new short series on democracy in Newfoundland and Labrador. 

All are typical of what this corner of the Internet has become in the last seven years.  SRBP is not just about adding to the voices out there.  It’s about getting at the layers underneath.  It’s about explaining the why behind arguments and beliefs.

SRBP has also become about advocating for new initiatives.  When the province’s most popular politician Danny failed to deliver his promise of whistleblower protection, your humble e-scribbler delivered it.  Look through the archives and you’ll find all sorts of policy ideas for the fishery, the economy and education and early childhood development.

And in some areas, your humble e-scribbler has been telling you things you won;t find anywhere else.

SRBP was an immediate opponent of the Abitibi expropriation.  It was fundamentally wrong, as a matter of principle.  The government never told the full story of why the expropriated the hydroelectric properties in central Newfoundland.  Finding out that the government botched the whole thing and expropriated environmental cesspools made it only more stupid than it was at the beginning.

After a brief examination, your humble e-scribbler also became a firm opponent of Muskrat Falls.  In the year since Danny Williams announced the scheme, more people have joined the ranks of the critics and opponents.  As more people learn more, they invariably realise the project is wrong.

SRBP’s critique goes much further than just picking at bits and pieces of one small part of a much larger problem with the current administration’s policy.  Your humble e-scribbler has already proposed an alternative way to manage the province’s electricity resources that will genuinely work in the public’s best interest.

As SRBP enters its eighth year, the ultimate judge of its success or failure is you, the reader. There are many thousands more of you today than there were seven years ago.  You send e-mails, make comments on posts or in some cases, pull your humble e-scribbler aside for a quick chat.

Politicians used to make angry phone calls in 2005 to gripe about a comment or opinion.  In 2007, the Old Man took to threatening your humble e-scribbler publicly.  In 2011, his successor gave the ultimate compliment to those of us who toil online by singling us out in her year-end interviews.

All of that speaks to the fact that people are interested in what they read here.  As long as they keep coming and as long as your humble e-scribbler can keep going, the Sir Robert Bond Papers will be here.

Thank you for your support. 

Thank you for your interest.

And to each of you, every wish for a happy and prosperous and healthy New Year from your humble e-scribbler.

- srbp -

Containing Ottawa’s Skyrocketing Power Bill

by Tom Adams and Brian Lee Crowley

[Note:  the authors prepared the following commentary to coincide with the recent energy ministers meeting.  It has appeared in other publications across the country.]

Federal taxpayers are exposed to an explosion of liabilities to fund provincial electricity misadventures, the worst of which are undermining Canada’s international trading reputation. A federal-provincial energy conference in Kananaskis, Alberta running until July 19th threatens to up the ante.

Last week, Texas energy titan T. Boone Pickens launched a $775-million
NAFTA challenge alleging the Ontario government has discriminated against his privately owned wind energy company. Pickens is demanding that the federal government pay up.

The federal government is also defending protectionist elements of Ontario’s controversial Green Energy Act against a challenge Japan has launched with the support of the United States and European Union at the World Trade Organization.

Ontario is not the only province with electricity initiatives undermining Canada’s trading reputation and sending the bill to Ottawa.

Last August, a NAFTA dispute panel obliged federal taxpayers to pay the industrial firm Abitibi-Bowater $130 million after the government of Newfoundland and Labrador confiscated electricity generation assets. Far from holding the Newfoundland government responsible for shafting federal taxpayers, Prime Minister Stephen Harper instead promised loan guarantees for submarine transmission connections
required by a Labrador power megaproject with very dubious economics.

With the subsidy offer, Harper effectively rewarded Newfoundland’s government and further impaired Canada’s trade reputation in an unsuccessful bid to win seats on the Rock (although the Conservatives did pick up a seat in Labrador).

Newfoundland justifies its power scheme on the basis that provincial power costs are going to soar anyway, eventually making pricey Labrador power relatively cheap by comparison. Most of the new Labrador power, however, is earmarked for the Maritimes and potentially New England. Unlike Newfoundland, those markets have access to North America’s glut of natural gas, a key factor driving down average power rates across the U.S.

Any subsidies to Labrador power are likely to attract yet more trade complaints from generators in New England, particularly those now selling significant amounts of power into the Maritimes. International competitors of export industries in Atlantic Canada may also complain.

The Newfoundland government estimates that a federal subsidy for the Labrador power project in the form of a loan guarantee will cut local power costs by 6 or 7 per cent. Likely cost over-runs could push the value of the federal guarantee much higher.

The Kananaskis meeting provides a platform for provincial governments and lobby groups to push the federal government deeper into provincial electricity matters. Many, including the governments of Ontario and Newfoundland & Labrador, have demanded federal subsidies to interprovincial transmission projects. Ontario also demands federal subsidies for its nuclear expansion ambitions.

The federal track record in the electricity business is dubious, as illustrated by its recent cut-the-losses exit from nuclear power development and marketing. Even if the federal record in the electricity business was solid, using the federal spending power to buy its way into provincial energy affairs now will annoy our trading partners, promote inefficiency and create jurisdictional confusion.

The federal government should focus its electricity sector involvement first on its core constitutional responsibility for interprovincial trade and commerce. The best way to make Labrador power truly competitive against abundant natural gas is to avoid hugely expensive long distance submarine transmission and to instead achieve the best possible economies of scale with more affordable transmission over land.

To reach markets in Ontario or the U.S. Northeast, Labrador power must transit Quebec, which has its own electricity export ambitions. If those provinces cannot negotiate a mutually agreeable solution, the federal government should act to ensure the constitutionally-guaranteed freedom of interprovincial trade. Ontario and Newfoundland should not require Quebec’s approval to move electricity any more than Alberta needs Saskatchewan’s permission to move natural gas to Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec.

Naturally, Quebec does not welcome another big hydro-power competitor, particularly while market prices are low. However, to maintain its access to electricity markets in the United States, Quebec already accepts the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s non-negotiable rules compelling them to open their market to electricity imports. The constitutional powers that the U.S. relies upon to promote highly successful inter-state trading are similar to our own federal
government’s constitutional authority, which Ottawa has always been reluctant to exercise in the electricity sector.

Canadians too should be entitled to an open national electricity system, where no province can hold its neighbours hostage and Canadians can buy and sell power freely. The federal government should keep federal tax dollars out of the electricity sector. Any subsidies to the sector create unfairness to taxpayers across the county and harm Canada's trading reputation, vital to our long term economic interests. Instead Ottawa should use its legitimate powers to create an open national electricity market that treats everyone transparently and fairly.

- srbp -

Tom Adams is an independent energy and environmental advisor. He has held a variety of senior responsibilities including Executive Director of Energy Probe from 1996 until September 2007, membership on the Ontario Independent Electricity Market Operator Board of Directors, and membership on the Ontario Centre for Excellence for Energy Board of Management. His guest columns have appeared in many major Canadian newspapers. He has been a media commentator for 20 years and a lecturer in energy studies at University of Toronto. He has presented expert testimony before many regulatory tribunals in Canada on a wide variety of energy subjects. He has made presentations to Legislative Committees in Ontario and New Brunswick, academic, regulatory and trade conferences, the Atomic Energy Control Board, and the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission.

Brian Lee Crowley has headed up the Macdonald-Laurier Institute (MLI) in Ottawa since its inception in March of 2010, but he has a long and distinguished record in the think tank world. He was the founder of the Atlantic Institute for Market Studies (AIMS) in Halifax, one of the country’s leading regional think tanks. He is a former Salvatori Fellow at the Heritage Foundation in Washington DC and is a Senior Fellow at the Galen Institute in Washington. In addition, he advises several think tanks in Canada, France and Nigeria.

Crowley’s published numerous books include two bestsellers: Fearful Symmetry: the fall and rise of Canada’s founding values (2009) and MLI’s first book, The Canadian Century; Moving Out of America’s Shadow, which he co-authored with Jason Clemens and Niels Veldhuis.

Crowley twice won the Sir Antony Fisher Award for excellence in think tank publications. From 2006-08 Crowley was the Clifford Clark Visiting Economist with the federal Department of Finance. He has also headed the Atlantic Provinces Economic Council (APEC), taught politics, economics and philosophy at various universities in Canada and Europe.

Crowley is a frequent commentator on political and economic issues across all media. He holds degrees from McGill and the London School of Economics, including a doctorate in political economy from the latter.

Canadian Press and CBC desperately need online fact checker

Someone needs to start doing some fact checking on stories posted on CBC’s web site.

A Canadian Press story on a Russian Proton K rocket contains this claim:

The Proton-K re-entry was reminiscent of a 2005 incident, when a U.S. military rocket splashed down in the vicinity of the Hibernia oil platform, on Newfoundland's Grand Banks, shortly after its launch from Florida.

The planned launch of the Titan IV B-30 rocket prompted Premier Danny Williams to order an evacuation of several offshore-oil platforms.

But the order was soon rescinded when American air force officials assured Ottawa the risks were small and the rocket would be destroyed if it veered off course.

None of it happened.

1.  Danny Williams didn’t order an evacuation of rigs – he doesn’t have the legal authority.

2.  Danny didn’t rescind the order not only because he didn’t give it  in the first place but because the evacuation  - or more accurately, a removal of non-essential personnel - went ahead. 

3.  The assurances from American authorities were the same all the way through the sorry-assed episode. The government reaction went through a few permutations mostly as people stopped making asses of themselves in public but nothing the Americans said produced any changes in the provincial government reaction.

4.  The Titan didn’t “splash down”.  The booster section broke up as it returned to Earth, as predicted. 

5.  The thing also wasn’t near the Hibernia rig unless more than 100 kilometres away is “near”.

Seriously, people.  This stuff happened within the past five years.  The facts are readily accessible on line.  It’s astonishing that CP would cock it up that badly and CBC would let the cock-up stand.

CP and CBC need a fact checker.

-srbp-

“How dare you complain about it?”

Not surprisingly, the latest of Danny Williams public attacks against any contrary voices is stirring further revelations.

The biggest news this week was Williams verbal assault on talk show host Randy Simms for suggesting that maybe some other issues in the province – like the faltering fishery – needed some urgent attention.

Apparently, it wasn’t the only testy exchange between the two.  Williams took a snotty tone with Simms during an exchange the week before over government’s role in a botched April announcement on breast cancer testing.

A caller to an open-line show Wednesday afternoon identified only as “Kevin” described his own experience with the political rant from a government member of the House of Assembly.

His crime?

Daring to voice an opinion in a local newspaper.

You’ll find the whole thing over at Geoff Meeker’s blog at the Telegram.

Farther down the post there’s a reference to Tom Marshall, minister of justice, who weighed in to support Williams in his tirade.  Marshall – who is widely respected as knowledgeable and decent – sometimes winds up in these sorry positions defending his boss.

In late 2007 former Tory Premier Brian Peckford was on the receiving end of a Marshall scolding. 

Curiously enough – in light of Randy Simms comments -  Peckford had dared to suggest that perhaps the provincial government was too focused on oil and that other issues deserved greater attention. Peckford’s was a sensible and reasonable presentation.

Marshall’s on the other hand, was  - uncharacteristically for him - a pile of misrepresentations and mindless Leader worship.  It included this dig which Peckford certainly did not deserve:

And for him to say that we're focusing exclusively on oil and gas would be the same as saying that when he was office he focused exclusively on growing cucumbers, and we all know that's not true. But it's an asinine comment to make and he has to be held to account for it.

Marshall was right, except that the asinine comments were his. And on another level Marshall can be forgiven since he did help put Danny Williams in the job.  Marshall was Williams’ west coast chair for the Tory leadership coronation in 2000-2001.

Marshall defends Williams in the most recent case by saying that if “you are against this province then he – and rightly so – is going to be your worst enemy.”

The only problem with that is that none of the people who have felt Williams’ wrath, like say Randy Simms, could even vaguely be considered to be “against this province.”

To make the point let’s leave aside the politicians.  Let’s forget Loyola Hearn, the guy who Williams supported for premier in the 1989 race to replace Peckford as Tory leader.  Let’s even forget that Hearn returned the favour and helped organize Williams’ campaign in 2000.

Let’s forget Norm Doyle and Fabian Manning.  Let’s leave aside John Efford, Roger grimes and basically any politician before Williams irrespective of party who has been dismissed as perpetrating give-aways.

Let’s just look at the ordinary people who wind up on the receiving end of a “crap” comment:

• Mark Griffin, a lawyer from Corner Brook was accused of betraying the province when he commented on concerns in central Newfoundland after the closure of the AbitibiBowater mill.
• From the Gulf News in 2008 during the Memorial University fiasco:

‘However, the most disturbing conclusion of all in this wretchedly pathetic display of political arrogance, is that we now know we have a government with a paranoid determination to control.

Premier Williams has been known to personally call editors and letter writers who offer criticism of him and his government's decisions.

While his stated aim is to "set the record straight" the tactic probably leaves ordinary letter-writing citizens with the sense of "better be careful what you say because He is watching."

This government, quite simply, likes to control the message.

It also likes to attempt to control public debate and opinion.’

• Craig Westcott (The Newfoundland Post) and David Cochrane (CBC Provincial Affairs reporters) have both been cut off from interview opportunities with the Premier, the latter for only a short period but the former on permanent “ignore”.
• Ryan Cleary and the crew at the Independent who fell from grace and then garnered gobs of provincial advertising cash only after they slacked off their government reporting.  [Why exactly did Ivan Morgan stop writing about Danny? – ed.]
• Max Ruelokke, head of the province’s offshore regulatory board whose only “crime” was to win two merit based competitions against Williams’ preferred candidate.
• The judge in Ruelokke v. the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador who weighed the evidence and found in favour of Max Ruelokke getting the job, calling government’s actions “callous” as he did so.
• Madam Justice Margaret Cameron, who commented negatively on the curious amnesia afflicting some of the witnesses at an inquiry into one of the province’s most serious health scandals.
• Joyce Hancock, formerly head of the province’s status of women council, who expressed concern over a series of issues surrounding women in the senior public service.
• NASA, for launching a Titan 4B booster as they have done for decades.  [Okay that one wasn’t a direct attack but it was a totally loopy, beyond-all-reason, panic-attacky tirade of silly proportions.]

And that’s just the bigger ones that have actually made into some of the local media.  There are at least two more your humble e-scribbler can relate involving reporters.  There are more to come, undoubtedly as people shrug off the fear.

Williams complaints the day after the Randy meltdown certainly followed in the same vein.  As with the clash with Simms over health care, Williams is evidently highly frustrated at news stories which convey something other than the manufactured image from his publicity machine and the scripted comments of his open line callers and online anonymous army. 

Voicing that frustration won’t make the stories go away.  If anything, the resurgent CBC Here and Now, for example, the source of Williams’ annoyance over health care will just keep piling on the accurate stories of problems here and there in the administration. 

This is the normal course of things for any government and any politician.  This is what news organizations do.  To complain about it is to complain about dogs barking. 

Williams has been lucky thus far to have had a relatively free ride and precious little serious criticism until recently.  Still, he has liked to complain from the start about the media and public attention.  He complained bitterly about attention paid to the lengthy process of getting his private business affairs into a blind trust.  Anyone recall the silliness about his being reduced to living on an allowance from the trustees?  

The better part of a decade after he got into politics, the guy who says he has a thick skin, actually demonstrates time and again that he doesn’t.  He needs to get over it and himself.  Williams garnered more, negative media attention for himself over the racket with Randy than he any positive coverage with what should have been a triumphant day of news about another offshore deal.

before leaving this whole issue of childishness, thin skins, and all the rest,  we shouldn’t forget another Premier of a decade or so ago who was fond of expressing his displeasure with people who dared contradict him. 

One story involved a very prominent local business leader and a disagreement over hydro development or some such.  The comments came in a very public way at Marble Mountain.  Another involved a local editor and accusations that the editor’s insufficient endowment were the driving force behind his writing.  As the story goes, the line was something like the only reason you are taking me on is because you have a small dick.

The impact of that sort of childish behaviour wasn’t readily apparent since Newfoundland and Labrador is a small community used to suppressing open confrontation.  Still, the opinions do get expressed. 

Nasty - and false - rumours circulate, whispered from one to another with glee.  Even those stories relayed above  may have been embellished, with time, as they made it to your humble e-scribbler.  At a certain point, their veracity is not as important as the fact they get circulated with great vigour in the community, not in the news media, but over the dinner table and on the links.

The mighty will be humbled if they go too far.

And humbled that one was on the day he left federal politics.  There were no soft questions at all and no one was concerned about his legacy after a long career in public service.  Every reporter in the hastily called news conference took turns to slam Brian Tobin with every hard question they had about his departure.  They’d been saving stuff up, as it seemed, and on that day, they used it.

Voters used the frustration they’d saved up as well, in a couple of districts, in a by-election not long after.  They humbled the people from the same party who carried on after the Big Guy had left the scene.  The sins of the Father, as it were.

People made a change and they changed for a bunch of reasons, not the least of which was a desire to get right of the behaviour of the crowd that they had before.

How quickly some people forget.

-srbp-

News by Chip

VOCM has been getting a toasting from a few people lately for its questionable editorial choices, especially when it comes to the current provincial administration.

Well, truth be told the favourable coverage of the puissance du jour started a long while ago but really reached full bloom under Brian Tobin. That's when it came to be known as Voice of the Cabinet Minister.

And boy, that name really applies when you see a news organization repeat almost verbatim the fawning, self-congratulatory spin - i.e. bullshit - of a cabinet minister at the centre of a major breach of personal security by a government agency and with it the violation of a brand new privacy act.

Only in Newfoundland and Labrador would a news organization side with the power of the day in a case where said power:

a. Had a complete breakdown of its computer security.

b. Again.

c. For the second time in three months.

d. And sat on the information for three full days.

e. and even at that point (now almost a week later), still has no idea what exactly happened, how long it was going on and how much information on how many people was involved.

No matter how bad the cock-up, no fear. VOCM will always tell you exactly what the provincial government wants you to know.

And when it comes to stories they get first that cast the current administration (whichever it is) in a bad light, well, they'll avoid it like the plague.

VOCM: Who cares about the common man?

Update; A couple of e-mails raised issues with two aspects of this post.

The first one is simple: the Chip in the title is the Kevin Bacon character in Animal House who ran around insisting all was well in the middle of a riot. it seemed an apt analogy since the basic thrust of the provincial government's message here is that everything is fine and there is a problem, but a really not so important one. After all, "appropriate" measures had been taken. Oh yeah, after the fact but the measures were "appropriate".

The second was with the word "complete" as in complete breakdown of computer security. At this point, we have no idea of the extent of the security breach. But frankly, when it comes to security, the issue is never about the 99% of the system that wasn't involved but the 1% - using arbitrary numbers - that was.

Security is a bit like virginity or pregnancy. You can't be mostly unpregnant any more than you can be a partial virgin.

If there was a breach - and there undeniably was - then the system failed.

To take it a step beyond that, the focus of government's comment and the consequent public comment is that this is seen as an information technology issue. Government computers are secure, as we are told, since the IT people have taken measures to ensure that particular software can't be loaded to government computers.

That's not really the point, though.

Information security is a system, a culture that involves not only the hardware and software but also the attitudes and behaviour of people using the computers and programs.

Take a look at The Breach Blog (breachblog.com) and you'll get a better feel for the issue and the ideas. Information security encompasses a whole range of issues beyond just hardware and software. Scroll the posts at Breach Blog and you can also see the extent of the security issue across the developed world.

Stolen laptops. Unencrypted data. Missing hard drives and flash drives.

Even in the case where a laptop has encrypted data, putting the laptop in a place where it can be stolen suggests a certain laxness (laxity?) in personal habits of the people using the laptops.

Your humble e-scribbler has been involved in information security a number of ways over the years and information security is an integral part of day-to-day business. There are all sorts of the hardware and software methods to secure information from both unintentional disclosure and from possible prying eyes. There's also a segregation of information such that confidential information isn't stored where it might be accessed. Flash drives are routinely cleared of files and each one is kept under close custody.

One client kept apologizing for the security procedures they used internally which included incidentally, keeping physical control over individual movements within the office suite when outside consultants were in the suite. Going to the bathroom required notification, permission and escort. Flash drives were surrendered and scanned on entry and exit to ensure only those files that were authorized came and went.

The Government of Canada has a fairly extensive information security (InfoSec) program that applies throughout government and to contractors. In an increasing number of cases, outside contractors must clear a security screen, including an assessment of security processes and procedures at the contractor's work site.

The responsibility for security is established at the outset:

Departments are responsible for protecting sensitive information and assets under their control according to the Security policy and its operational standards. This responsibility applies to all phases of the contracting process, including bidding, negotiating, awarding, performance and termination of contracts, as well as to internal government operations.

Whether a contract is within or outside a department's delegated contracting responsibilities, the department is responsible for identifying sensitive information and assets warranting safeguards.

Part of the InfoSec issue with the provincial government is related to its overall attitude toward security. That's not a new issue, but things have definitely not improved lately. How many officials have cleared a federally-recognized security screen? The answer as of two years ago was the same as it always has been: zero. That's why no provincial officials were allow to attend a briefing on the Titan missile launch even though the briefing was only at the Secret level, the second lowest level there is.

Recall Heidigate? In 1997, an official of the Premier's Office obtained confidential pension information on three former members of the House of Assembly and leaked it to local media.

Okay. That's bad enough.

But the public servants responsible for controlling the pension data, all of whom knew of the need for confidentiality and who knew or ought to have known the official had no legal right to access the information, gave up the data based on nothing more than a telephone call from the Premier's Office. If they objected or raised questions, we'll never know. Certainly there were no consequences, beyond the minor political controversy that erupted over it. The whole thing was brushed aside by the Premier of the day based on the youthfulness of the person who asked for information. The tone was set from the top.

You see the point: security is about more than whether or not someone can load MSN Messenger or Limewire on a computer.

It's about attitude, and frankly, when the attorney general's news release on the issue focuses attention everywhere except on the gravity of the security breach in the first place, we can be pretty sure the security attitude hasn't changed much.

-srbp-

Shuttle to fly over North Atlantic

The next shuttle launch is scheduled for December 7 using a launch angle that it will take it over the North Atlantic.

So why isn't Danny Williams screaming about potential threats to offshore oil rigs?

Could it be that the Titan fiasco showed just exactly how hysterical concerns were that the rigs would be hit?

Yeah. Regular Bond Papers readers were never worried in the first place.

Oil rig security gains national attention

Possible national security threats to offshore oil installations is prompting the federal natural resources department to legislation governing the offshore, according to the Ottawa Citizen. The changes would give greater say in offshore physical security to the two joint federal-provincial regulatory boards.

Bond Papers reported in April 2006 on the offshore security issue. At the time, the commander of Canadian Forces in the Atlantic region said DND was making the security issue a top priority. A former chief of strategic planning for the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) also described the offshore rigs as a potentially "high value target" for terrorists. Attacking the rigs could cause severe environmental harm and disrupt local economies.

While the military has already conducted several exercises related to offshore oil rigs and possible attack scenarios (See April's Bond Papers), the threat to the rigs is considered low according to the Ottawa Citizen.

The Titan missile scare in 2005 highlighted chronic, serious shortcomings in the provincial government's ability to deal with national security issues generally. Premier Danny Williams public comments on the matter made it plain that provincial officials could not make even the most rudimentary assessments of security threats and it became apparent that relations between the federal and provincial governments at the highest level did not routinely address security issues.

Even today, no provincial government officials in Newfoundland and Labrador hold federal security clearances. A provincial government team sent to Dartmouth for meetings with Government Canada and American officials was excluded from a briefing on the Titan launch because they did not hold recognized security clearances.

It appears that few if any of the officials and board members at the offshore regulatory authorities in Atlantic Canada have experience dealing with defence-related issues. Newly appointed CNLOPB chairman and chief executive officer Max Ruelokke is a former army reserve engineer officer. Ruelokke's experience would give him contacts within National Defence and a familiarity with DND and its overall operations that would prove important in an actual emergency.

However, the changes described by the Citizen would not give the offshore boards any responsibility for directing security operations. The story says:

[t]he amendments being considered would allow the agencies to issue security-related orders to rig operators and conduct security audits, said Felix Kwamena, director of Natural Resources Canada's critical energy-infrastructure protection division.

For its part, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers is emphasizing a single point of contact on physical security matters. This would a sensible approach since too many layers of authority can hamper effective response in emergencies. One of the issues that emerged from the Titan missile fiasco was a question about jurisdiction.

_____________________________________

Disclosure: The author is a former army reserve public affairs officer, with an academic and work background in defence, security and intelligence.

Andy, Terra Nova and the problem of a little knowledge

Interviewed on the St. John's CBC Radio Morning Show on Thursday, St. John's mayor Andy Wells made it clear that his opening remarks - "I am not an expert..." were likely the truest words he has ever uttered, at least when it comes to offshore oil and gas issues.

Wells was discussing recent problems with the Terra Nova field's floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel that will see production at Terra Nova halted a month in advance of a planned three-month shutdown for a refit and refurbishment of the FPSO. [Left: Terra Nova FPSO. Photo: Petro-Canada]

In the interview, Wells maintained among other things:

1. That a "proper debate" never took place on the decision to use an FPSO in preference to a revised gravity-based structure (GBS);

2. That the proponents will not be paying for the shutdown and that instead the people of Newfoundland and Labrador will be paying the cost, i.e. "taking a big hit"; and,

3. That he has no problems with use of an FPSO at White Rose, the field developed after Terra Nova.

Let's deal with these in order.

1. The debate issue. Wells never defines what would constitute a "proper debate". As a result, it is difficult to understand the basis on which he makes this assertion other than that the viewpoint of some individuals that a GBS ought to have been used did not win out.

Some proponents of the GBS-only approach were senior officials of the Peckford administration. Their views appear to be related to maximizing local industrial spinoffs, not necessarily on the safety, effectiveness and efficiency of using an FPSO as the mode of production for an offshore oil field. It would appear that these views are the ones Wells is championing.

There can be no doubt, however, that a debate did take place at the time and that it was quite lively. The Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Board (CNLOPB) and the project proponents conducted public meetings and provided considerable opportunity to public input into all aspects of the development proposal before CNLOPB issued a decision. Morning Show host Jeff Gilhooley commented during the interview with Wells on the stories he covered related to the Terra Nova development and issues surrounding use of the FPSO.

It is important to recall that the FPSO was selected over a GBS as the Terra Nova production mode for three reasons, namely "more extreme weather conditions, more numerous icebergs, and deeper water at the Terra Nova location" than at Hibernia.

Developed for use in deep waters, FPSO designs moor the FPSO hull to a submerged riser-buoy that brings together the production pipes from seabed wells.

For most considerations, the FPSO is a ship of a general type and design which has operated on the Grand Banks for decades. Its overall design was certified by the government authorities after thorough review and to date there is no indication of a fundamental problem with the design that would cause it to operate unsafely either for human life or for the environment.

In the event of emergency, the ship can be detached from the buoy and moved off-station as the FPSO was relocated during the 2005 Titan missile scare. Its design as a ship allows the FPSO to ride with the ocean, as does any ship, thereby reducing the cost of developing a GBS that must fight against natural elements.

The most recent problem with the FPSO has been the result of a design decision taken at a time when oil prices were less than one third their current levels. As Petro-Canada spokesperson John Downton noted recently, the development proceeded at a time when oil was at a price per barrel on the order of US$20 or less. As a consequence, the FPSO at Terra Nova carries essential equipment only with only the redundancy in its equipment required for human and environmental safety.

In other words, there is nothing - absolutely nothing - inherent in the FPSO design that makes it inferior to the GBS in any way. There is an issue with the design of this specific FPSO, however that can be dealt with in the course of the planned refit.

2. Who pays? Wells apparently has some difficulty understanding this issue in the same fashion that he misunderstand the production mode issues.

The estimated $100 million revenue loss which Wells mentions is the amount of royalty that the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador will not be receiving in April/May 2005 as a result of this shutdown.

There are three things to note on this point. First, This is not a loss in the sense of income that will never be received. Rather, given that Terra Nova production will resume following the refit, the April/May revenues have merely been deferred. While this may cause some problems in the short-term for a government which has budgeted to spend all revenue received, there really is only a notional loss of revenue for the provincial government in the short-term that will be balanced out in the medium-to long- term.

Second, if Wells' GBS contention had held sway in 1996/997, one of three circumstances would have occurred. Either the high cost of building a GBS would have rendered the project not commercially viable based on projections at the time or, the project would not have achieved pay-out of costs after only three years of production as the FPSO approach has done or, had the GBS been foisted on the companies by government, taxpayers would have born the added costs in the form of royalty concessions. This is exactly what occurred with Hibernia.

This is no small matter. The provincial government revenues today from Terra Nova are higher than at first oil simply because the initial costs of development were kept under tight control. Early pay-off has moved the project into a higher royalty payment to the provincial government.

Had the Terra Nova project not begun in 1996/97, it is likely that White Rose too would have been delayed. As a result we might only today be looking at development prospects for Terra Nova fully 10 years after the project was first advanced.

Proponents for both projects are virtually the same and much of the knowledge gained from Terra Nova was transferred directly to White Rose. It is not small point, either, that Wells ignores White Rose entirely even though Terra Nova and White Rose are intimately connected. This effectively deals with Wells' third contention since, if there was a problem with the Terra Nova FPSO then there should be equal criticism of White Rose's production mode.

To close the matter of costs, however, the proponents are paying the entire costs of the refit and refurbishment as well as suffering a loss of revenue considerably greater than the provincial royalties. This is patently obvious.

On this third financing point, though, had government insisted on a GBS with its added - and essentially unnecessary - costs, there is no question that the proponents would have sought to recover those costs from government directly. This was one lesson from Hibernia.

To put it another way, if Andy Wells had been in a position to force his views on the Terra Nova project proponents, he would likely have reproduced the abysmal government revenue stream from Hibernia rather than the lucrative ones coming from Terra Nova and White Rose. He would have learned nothing at all from the recent past, instead preferring a few years of jobs pouring concrete to the hundreds of millions of dollars in provincial revenues which his new patron Danny Williams can now spend freely. He would have ensured that taxpayers took a big hit in the wallet, the very situation he claims now exists at Terra Nova.

Andy Wells has made a name for himself as an outspoken critic of the offshore oil and gas industry as it has developed in the past 10 years. However, in his most recent comments he demonstrates a fundamental lack of understanding for the issues involved both for the industry and for the province as a whole.

A little information can indeed be a dangerous thing. However, as long as Andy Wells sits in the mayor's chair and not in a position of responsibility related to the offshore oil and gas industry, his general lack of understanding cannot cause the province and its people any significant harm.

That said, if Danny Williams still thinks Andy can offer some worthwhile input at the offshore regulatory board, he need only appoint Wells to the Newfoundland and Labrador position that is open on the board and over which Mr. Williams holds complete authority to make the appointment as he sees fit. That option has been open to him for his term of office; that he has failed to take action on it suggests that Mr. Williams is less enamoured of Andy Wells than it appears.

Wells' own recent comments would suggest the Premier's caution is well founded.

Emergency!

Premier Danny Williams announced on Friday that the province will be spending about $5.0 million next fiscal year to improve the province's ability to respond to emergencies.

Aside from the new bodies in health and wildlife, there will be three new people hired in the province's emergency measures organization, including a new fire protection officer, a new financial assistance co-ordinator and a new emergency management officer.

A new deputy minister position was also created some time ago specifically responsible for emergency response planning.

All this is very good news, especially in light of the Titan missile fiasco last year or the September 11 thing. The provincial government's inability to process intelligence and respond appropriately was painfully obvious in both incidents. The technical term for the situation on those occasions was TARFU.

Let's see how things improve.

Two things to note, however:

1. There is no sign the provincial government has created an ability to assess information coming to it and make appropriate decisions. Information co-ordination - i.e. intelligence gathering and analysis - is a key element of the emergency response puzzle.

Otherwise, as in the Titan fiasco, we wind up with GIGO: garbage in, garbage out, which inevitably leads back to TARFU.

Or, as in the 9/11 thing we wind up watching people pull things out of the nearest available bodily orifice.

The technical term for this is SNAFU, which is not what you want by any means, either.

2. There is no communications/public information/public relations position anywhere in the mix. If we have learned anything in emergency response in North America over the past decade, it would be that emergency communications is a crucial element in the overall success of the mission.

Unless this gets fixed sooner rather than later, the whole emergency response will be FUBAR no matter how many public health nurses there are, doses of bird flu vaccine sitting in storage or how many new financial assistance co-ordinators are busily co-ordinating financial assistance for the new emergency management officer and the new fire protection officer.

There needs to be a dedicated emergency communications co-ordinator, with staff and the appropriate resources to help get everyother jurisdiction in the province sorted out.

Psst. there's federal money available to help pay for this, by the way.

Some good choices and an odd one

Prime Minister Stephen Harper announced today that Mr. Justice Marshall Rothstein will be the next justice of the Supreme Court of Canada, filling the only vacancy on the court. Mr. Justice Rothstein has the necessary experience and other qualifications to take a seat on the SCC bench.

Meanwhile in Newfoundland and Labrador, Premier Danny Williams announced the appointment of Alastair O'Reilly to the post of deputy minister of fisheries. O'Reilly is an acknowledged expert in the fishery with experience in both the public and private sectors.

He replaces Mike Samson who is being appointed to the new position of deputy minister (Emergency Planning), although the department isn't specified in the news release. Samson is an experienced public servant and will be filling a role long overdue to be created in the province's public service.

The provincial government began work on a province-wide emergency plan following September 11, 2001, however, it apparently is still unfinished. Questions raised by the premier about the launch of a Titan missile along a track that covered the province's offshore oil production platforms caused a temporary public flurry of concern that actually revealed significant problems in the government's ability to assess and act appropriately on public safety threats.

In the category of odd appointments comes word today as well from Danny Williams that former Liberal cabinet minister Chuck Furey will be the province's new chief electoral officer and commissioner of members' interests. In the latter capacity, Furey will be responsible for "monitoring, investigating and reporting on the compliance of Members of the House of Assembly with conflict of interest legislation."

Can anyone point to the last time in a Canadian jurisdiction when a former cabinet minister was appointed to fill the position of chief electoral officer?

A year of Bond-ing

Today marks the first anniversary of the Bond Papers.

One year ago, in the midst of the offshore talks, I started this blog as a means of contributing to the discussion of public policy issues affecting Newfoundland and Labrador in particular and Canada in general.

While much has changed in the past year, the core goal for the Bond Papers is still the same: to contribute to an informed discussion of public policy issues. It started with the offshore and in the first few weeks that proved to be the issue that dominated.

Since then, there have been posts on everything from the fishery to alleged spy planes flying through Newfoundland and Labrador, Titan missiles and economic development. Some posts are lighthearted and humourous. Others have been deeper and wordier. Whether they succeeded in being funny or serious, as the case may be, is best left to its readers.

Readership incidentally, has grown fairly steadily in the past year. On any given week upwards of 150 people a day drop in a read these e-scribbles. At times, such as the election, the daily readership has doubled that number. There is no defined pattern to the reader levels. On Friday past, for example, the readership hit the weekly peak of 245 unique visitors. On New Year's Day, it hit almost 150, on a Sunday, when normally readership would drop to the low double digits.

Fundamentally, the Bond Papers remains a form of samizdat, or self-publication. It is an opinion column written at least daily. The opinions here are based on my experience and my research into issues. Fortunately, I have built up a fairly good filing system and a bank of genuine experts off whom I can bounce any of my thoughts and ideas. Ultimately, the opinions presented here are my own.

Blogging, by its very nature, does not follow a single pattern. The one followed here encourages e-mails as the way for readers to give any feedback beyond reading it faithfully and turning up in the hit counter. Most correspondence comes from people who read regularly, beit daily or weekly. Some disagree completely with everything. Some agree with every word.

The majority fall somewhere in between and that is as it should be. The fundamental purpose of the Bond Papers is to provoke, and with any good fortune, to provoke thought.

My favourite response remains the angry telephone call from a politician, soon retired, who felt that in fact I was the one who couldn't do math. I will pit my calculator against his any day in confidence that mine is correct.

My second favourite is the threatening letter from part of the fourth estate that felt it best some of these columns perish rather than be published. Hypocrisy has a new name, but I was quite happy to stop handing out free advertising.

One of the most common questions asked is a simple one: how much time do you spend on the blog?

I don't keep track. I fit it into the day. Most days, I find an hour in the evening or early in the morning to throw some things together. Since it is a topical online column, there is plenty of fodder. On other days, I'll be able to take some time during lunch or in the break between other projects to fire off a few thoughts. Anything substantial sometimes takes a half day or more, parceled out over several days. There are occasions when I have worked into the wee hours. Thankfully those times have been rare.

How much longer will this continue? Who knows?

With so much fodder for the typing cannon, though and being an opinionated s.o.b., it will be hard to stop.

After all, NSDQ.

Prayer no substitute for preparation: province lacks emergency plan

Almost four years after the September 11 incident and despite examples of natural disasters in this province and neighbouring provinces over the past five years, Newfoundland and Labrador still does not have a functioning emergency response plan.

Provincial officials have worked in the document since 2001 yet are no closer to finishing it, despite almost 48 months of work.

The provincial response to the 9/11 incident was improvised, despite a federal-provincial training exercise in 1999 which included a scenario involving 30 international commercial passenger flights being diverted to Newfoundland and Labrador airports.

Effective co-ordination of the response was hampered by the chaotic nature of Emergency Measures Organization's operations centre. Daily decision meetings reportedly took place in the command centre and involved at times upwards of 64 people, all of whom had input to the meetings which lasted for hours.

In one incident, a request to National Defence for military camp cots was routed by the Department of Health through Health Canada despite military officials being present in the EMO command centre. Subsequent public comments by both the premier and the provincial cabinet minister responsible for emergency response did nothing other than strain relations with the federal government. In a situation reminiscent of the current situation in New Orleans, their public political criticism of federal authorities was actually rooted in their own organizational failures rather than in any shortcomings of federal support.

The provincial public relations response was a disaster in itself. Emergency public relations involves communicating essential, operational information to news media and the general public. The first media briefing took place over six hours after the incident began, took place in an area that ought to have been closed to news media and gave very little useful information on the provincial response. Subsequent provincial government briefings focused on actions in the metropolitan St. John's area.

In one memorable incident, a CBC host tried repeatedly to get concrete information from the provincial municipal affairs minister on how volunteers could help provincial efforts. His attempts to gain practical information were ignored by the minister who was intent on praising officials for their efforts. This release is typical, for example, with its extensive praise of local efforts and very little practical information on emergency response activities.

For those looking for basic information on the province's emergency plan, the provincial government website contains only this section on the province's Emergency Measures Organization.

By contrast, there is this site from the Nova Scotia government. Among other things, the site contains a great deal of useful advice for individuals on emergency preparedness.

Recent experience with the Titan missile incident demonstrated the fundamental breakdown of the province's emergency response system, particularly as it relates to the identification of potential threats, accurate threat assessment and appropriate response.

No provincial government officials hold valid federal security clearances. Such clearances enable them to routinely access sensitive intelligence on potential threats and would allow them to attend international briefings on emergency response. Provincial officials were excluded from a U.S. government briefing on the Titan missile launch earlier this year solely because they lacked a security clearance.

To infinity and beyond!

Space Transportation System mission 114 (STS-114) will launch from pad 39B at Canaveral space centre 13 July 2005 at approximately 1531 hrs Eastern Daylight Savings Time using an inclination of 51.6%.

That means the space shuttle will transit across the Grand Banks, not too far off the track used by the NROL-16, the last Titan 4B mission in May that caused a near panic in the oil patch offshore Newfoundland and in the provincial government. Maybe google-searching is a government wide deficiency.

So how come people aren't losing their minds about an even bigger hunk of metal that has a track record of blowing up rather spectacularly?

Incidentally, as I noted earlier this year, the shuttle has flown over the Grand Banks on more than half its launches since 1981. Yet no one in the oil patch noticed.

The last shuttle mission had problems on launch such that the American space administration team might have aborted before that giant liquid tank made it to orbit; that is, had they known that on recovery the thing was going to scatter bits and pieces of people and machine from California to Mississippi.

So come this afternoon, I'll be sipping my coffee, watching CNN and enjoying the show, minus the local melodrama.

Incidentally, has anyone finished the internal review on the Hill to find out why the provincial government's emergency management system blew to bits when it first heard of the Titan missile?

Might be a good subject for an access to information request.

Incidentally, incidentally, how many provincial government employees hold valid security clearances as a result of their provincial jobs such that they could receive classified national briefings on things like, say, intelligence reports or other matters of national security? The answer explains a lot of what happened during the Titan thing.

Yet another good access to info request.

Connie comm strategy: duck and cover

For those who follow these things, take a look at this link to a Canadian journalist blog.

Harper's lack of a scrum or other media availability speaks volumes for the Connie efforts to duck tough questions. Yeah Connies by nature assume that all media are "commie-pinko lefties", but their paranoia doesn't actually make the belief true, nor does it relieve someone who desperately wants to be prime minister from answering questions from reporters.

For another perspective, here's a local CBC story on the weekend blitz by national party leaders. Follow the link in the upper left to a debrief by Peter Gullage that covers the scrum-less Harper moment.

Now if you take a hard look at Harper's party you can see a good reason to avoid media questions:

- The failed election strategy. (The thing augered in deeper than a Titan 4 booster; the most toxic gas associated with it was methane.)

- A local Connie MP working against his party. (Here's a link to Loyola-land. Note the line at the end where Hearn pledges to work on getting C-43 passed - presumably intact - by the end of the month. "we will now use every method possible to fast track passage of Bill C-43 even if it means forcing the House to stay open for half the summer.")

- The Saga of Secret Agent Grewal. The more that everyone looks at this guy, the more problems that appear. People like Peter McKay, DDS are distancing themselves from Grewal and news tonight is that the guy mysteriously asked someone to carry a package for him from Vancouver to Ottawa even though Grewal had a ticket on the flight involved.

That last link takes you to a CTV story that indicates Grewal is taking "stress leave".

Maybe the next leave to be taken will be Mr. Harper. Maybe he is getting tired of it all. If VOCM had an affiliate in Alberta or if they had another slot available here, they seem to have a penchant for using clapped-out ex-pols to host their yak shows.

Canada doesn't own the ocean - Updated

VOCM is reporting this morning that environmental group the Sierra Club has proposed salvaging the Titan booster left over from the Big Launch and sending the American government the bill for the clean up.

All this comes because of a report that the booster carried a variety of toxic chemicals when it splashed down.

There is no news release on the Sierra Club site backing this story.

Let's take it at face value.

1. The salvage operation may well release the toxic chemicals everyone is worried about. Is that worth the risk for what amounts to a publicity stunt?

2. Does anyone know where this thing is exactly? It took more than a decade of very expensive searching to find the Titanic which, in case you missed it, was a lot bigger than the Titan booster.

3. If the thing is NOT inside Canada's 200 miles exclusive economic zone, then who is going to salvage the bloody thing? After all, contrary to what some people want us to believe, Canada does not own the ocean.

4. Where was the Sierra Club when some yahoo anti-sealer was advocating shooting people in order to save a species that isn't even close to being in any sort of danger? All things considered, I can think of a dozen environmental issues that would get my attention long before I'd bitch about the LAST Titan missile launch in the Atlantic. AND if I did, I'd come up with a better story than spending tens of millions to stage some sort of bull**** publicity stunt. Something concrete would be much better.

Update:

This story apparently originated with an Access to Information request by Canadian Press bureau in Halifax. Here's a link to local CBC coverage, including a link to an audio interview with Deane Beeby of CP's Halifax office.

- The impact zone was reportedly within Canada's 200 mile exclusive economic zone.

- There was some residual fuel in the rocket. How much is unknown.

- One of several issues to be addressed here would be the impact of any salvage and disposal operation. There are some obvious hazards associated with deep sea salvage and any action that took place would have to weigh the risk of causing a leak of fuel through recovery operations versus leaving the thing on the seabed.

- Here's an Environmental Protection Agency information page on one of the chemicals involved, dimethylhydrazine. Notice that there are acute effects and chronic effects. Some of the affects noted in the Canadian Press refer to acute exposure - something that isn't likely to occur now that the rocket section is settled on the bottom of the ocean.

- As for nitrogen dioxide, here is some factual information on that one. While some reports have noted that it can produce nitric acid in certain circumstances, read this link before jumping to any conclusions.

As with most things, let's get a bit more factual information before anyone jumps to a conclusion.

Harper's rolling thunder of (self-)destruction

Speaking at a scrum in Ottawa, Conservative leader Stephen Harper has confirmed that the Conservative Party will vote in favour of Bill C-43, the budget measure containing the offshore revenue. However, they will vote against the second measure, which includes the agreement with the New Democrats.

As a result, the government would fall if it lost the vote on bill C-48.

The vote for C-43 - and the offshore money - in that context would be completely disingenuous. This new caucus manouevre is a cynical attempt at political manipulation of the likes the Conservatives have resorted to repeatedly.

The Conservatives and economist Stephen Harper are mired in a technocrat's argument, talking endlessly about process, often doing so as if they had no idea what the process actually was. Their arguments about separate bills for the offshore passing quickly or the absurd idea that the budget for 2004 was only passed last week are cases in point.

None of those arguments resonate in the public. Voters are are only concerned about results. Conservatives have increasingly been talking in terms that only they can hear or care about.

For the past six weeks Harper's Conservatives have sustained a shrill strategy focused almost exclusively on pushing up Liberal "negatives" in polling. They have done nothing to boost their own "positives". This explains very easily the persistent problem the Conservatives have been having in translating their approach into any meaningful gain in opinions polls.

Their latest effort - the radio spots - just reinforce a screeching message that people other than Connie loyalists started tuning out weeks ago. They continue an unproductive approach that had already begun to alienate voters by the time the spots hit the air.

Conservative references to mafioso and Liberals in the same breath are are part of same dog-whistling approach that appeals only to their own hard-core members. It does nothing to draw new supporters. In fact, it alienates a great many people the Connies would need to win.

Last week's antics in the Commons were seen by many as the childish tactics of those bent merely on destroying the Liberals, rather than presenting themselves as an alternative. The approach actually reinforced negative attitudes toward Stephen Harper and the Conservatives. It was a clear case of a series of self-inflicted wounds.

While national pundits could easily predict we will head to the polls if Harper has his way, what they consistently miss is that the Conservatives are stuck in the mud. Andrew Coyne's comments on the eastern edition of The National were a case of whistling past the political graveyard. The Connies, said Coyne, were building up in the polls from where they finished the last election. The problem Coyne avoided was that over the past few weeks, the Connies have been yo-yoing up and down. They are not on the way up.

For a party which has been engaged in an incestuous conversation with itself, today's defection by Belinda Stronach has produced even more damage, again, much of it self-inflicted.

Belinda Stronach's defection today highlighted all the worst things from the Conservative perspective:

- Obvious internal divisions over policy, reputed to be fairly significant, between the Reform wing and the Progressive Conservative wing.

- Internal leadership challenges and hence heightened speculation that Harper's push to the polls was motivated by self-preservation. Harper's comment to his wife said more about his own nervousness than about Belinda's overweaning desire.

- Harper's predictable reaction to the defection - as noted in Minister Stronach - was negative and at times catty and sexist. In every respect, the Conservative reaction to l'affaire Stronach pushed potential middle-of-the-road voters away from them. Sexist references by everyone from Harper on down reinforce the suspicion in the minds of many voters that the Connies are either not ready or not fit to govern or, worse, that they have a hidden agenda just waiting to be implemented.

- Stronach's defection was worth at least a five point boost in the polls for the Conservatives. With their margins close across the country and with their recent Ontario numbers looking dismal, going to the polls would be a case of political suicide.

- Expect the attacks on Stronach, like this one, or this one, or this one, to boost her worth by another five points. Consider, as well, these comments by a western Conservative who stops an inch short of calling Stronach a dumb blonde. This man is cabinet material?

The twisting approach - vote for C-43//vote against the NDP agreement portions - will only further damage Conservative credibility. It will be seen as a cynical and transparent effort to play games with matters that are fundamentally important to people. Stephen Harper is so genuinely concerned with what Newfoundlanders and Labradorians think that he will lie to their faces about what he is actually doing, let alone about what his intentions are. Stephen Harper the anti-democrat, the elitist, the sexist shines through his every word.

One need not take my word for it. As CTV is reporting, Harper wasted no time in his scrum announcing the budget two-step to lash out, as CTV puts it, at the Progressive Conservavtive premier Danny Williams. The budget dance may fool some of the provincial Conservavtives but the ongoing war of words with the Premier will suppress local party workers on whom both Doyle and Hearn will depend to vote for them and to get out their vote. For a man who won his seat by the thinest of margins, Loyola Hearn cannot afford to be alienating any more provincial Tories. [Note: If you missed David Cochrane's report this morning, here's a link to the full Harpoer scrum. It requires Windows Media Player.]

Doyle and Hearn have stood with their leader, but increasingly one must wonder what they are standing for. It surely is not the best interests of the country, let alone the province. Surely, they cannot seriously contend that Stephen Harper is the very best this country can produce to be prime minister at this time.

Pushing the country into an election the people of the country don't want was never a smart idea. It reflects the belief that politics is a game and that term has been bandied about with too much regularity lately by Conservatives. Politics as a game is explicit in Harper's reliance on game theorists to develop strategy. It is further evidence that they are fundamentally out of touch with the majority of Canadians.

The Conservatives may succeed in forcing an election now, after all that has occurred, and after doing a quick zig-zag for part of the budget and against part of it. One can only expect that the united right experiment will fly apart under the strains of running an election at full throttle. Debris will be scattered over a far greater area than an incoming Titan missile on the Grand Banks.

It will not be a pretty sight.

The rolling thunder you hear will be the disintegration of a political party glued together in an effort to gain power in Ottawa. The glue of individual ambition grows quickly brittle.

The Conservative party will have fallen apart as a result of a strategic approach as fundamentally unsound as the one used to develop the original Rolling Thunder.

Neither war nor politics is a game.

Hit counter inflation test

sex

stephen harper

nude

norm doyle

welfare

danny williams

neophyte

michael jackson

whore

loyola hearn

petard

fair deal for newfoundland

kevin mccann

paul martin

gomery inquiry

liberal scandal

blogging tories

john efford

rob antle

titan IVB

international fund for animal welfare

atlantic accord

iceland

bjork

britney spears

While this may appear to be a shameless attempt to see what this does to my google search results, I challenge anyone to fit those words into a paragraph that makes any sense at all.

Most of these are actual terms people have used to somehow find a google hit for this blog.

Top Secret Argentia site - the facts

Friday's Telegram had an editorial which screamed for some clarification.

It spoke of a top secret building at the base, hinting that this might be the place a former Marine Corps soldier said was used to store nuclear weapons. The editorial made it sound like people didn't know what was going on there.

Piffle. That building was known as the "T" Building and is located at the south side of the base. It housed the data processing centre for a section of the Sound Underwater Surveillance System or SOSUS. This was a collection of hydrophones strung across the seabed that listened for Soviet submarines. To the best of my knowledge the T Building is not the building the former Marine is talking about.

In 1963, data from the Argentia SOSUS station was used to help pinpoint the location of a United States Navy submarine that had disappeared after leaving Spain on its way home.

The T Building was a highly sensitive facility since SOSUS was part of the front line defence against Soviet ballistic missile submarines. Not much of a surprise therefore that it was highly guarded and the Americans looked suspiciously on anyone who inquired about it. Does anyone remember Stephen Ratkai? Maybe that's a name for the "Newfoundland and Espionage" posting.

The top secret research facility everyone has been talking about was the SOSUS station - top secret underwater acoustic research.

Were nuclear weapons present at Argentia?

Yes.

During the Cuban Missile Crisis, complete nuclear weapons were deployed to Argentia. This is one of the major facts that led the federal government to negotiate an agreement with the United States specifically governing American nuclear weapons deployments to Argentia.

At other times, nuclear weapons components were there. That is, the base housed everything except the cores of fissionable material that would produce the atomic explosion of the thing worked properly.

There has been no report of any unusual radiation levels at Argentia. This undermines the story that the site housed large numbers of weapons, that these weapons were improperly stored and that there is a major environmental catastrophe at Argentia being covered up by the US government.

Of all the buildings at Argentia, the T Building was retained in American control after Argentia was closed out. It was refurbished and two large white radar domes were mounted on top as part of the US Air Forces range instrumentation system for the Cape Canaveral launch facility. The T Building continues to be used today, including during the recent Titan 4B launch.

Now you know the facts.

Make up your own mind.

NROL-16/Mission B-30: How far is far?

There's an interesting story on the front page of the Telly today recounting the Titan debris impact from Friday night. Don waste time looking, it isn't online. *sigh*

Seems the fisheries patrol vessel Leonard J Cowley was approximately 100 nautical miles northeast of the Hibernia rig.

Thus, as I already suggested several days ago, the debris never came within 100 nautical miles of the platforms. That is exactly as the US Air Force predicted in their original impact map and estimates.

When you have as much experience as the Americans do in launching rockets and when there is a s much sensitivity to third party liability, it is pretty easy to why the fears expressed by some about debris impacts was unwarranted from the outset.

Maybe next time, someone will sell tickets to see the lightshow.

Two observations:

1. The Cowley was not underway at the time of the sighting, suggesting to me that she had been sent out specifically to monitor the launch. If not, then the skipper decided to take advantage of his location to watch the light show.

2. The debris impact is reported by this source to have been over 100 nautical miles away from the offshore production platforms. While I have heard one account that claimed the debris was only a handful of miles away, this is obviously a faulty report.

Sound travels really well on the ocean and at night. Therefore, it is easy for an inexperienced observer to make some bad guesses as to distances.

Speaking of the shuttle Danny...

Since the Premier got so agitated about nothing with the last Titan mission, I wonder if anyone has briefed him on the shuttle.

1. The last five shuttle missions have used the high inclination launch angle. The next five plan for the same thing.

2. The last mission had some impacts on the underside of the orbiter on the way to orbit. That's what led to the disintegration of the orbiter on re-entry.

3. Therefore, it is highly likely that any launch problems will trigger a mission abort.

4. Pop quiz: what happens next?

5. Pop answer: the large, liquid fuel tank is jettisoned, the orbiter is brought around and the pilot heads for the nearest runway.

6. And where might those runways be, you ask?

7. They are located at Goose Bay, Gander and St. John's. The latter one is only used in a pinch since the runways are so frickin short compared to Goose and Gander.

8. The tank falls somewhere in the ocean with much less precision than the Titan launch vehicle did.

Oh well. I guess we'll hear more of that as we get closer to launch day.