Calculators #nlpoli

Nalcor’s new marketing website for Muskrat Falls includes a little feature that supposedly shows you what your electricity bill will be with and without Muskrat Falls.

Even though you will pay for Muskrat Falls until at least 2067, they only show the comparisons out to 2030 on the new calculator.

So try a monthly bill currently of $200.

According to Nalcor, your monthly electricity bill with the Marvellous Muskrat will be $268 in 2025.

In 2010, they gave an estimate out to 2040 using a bill that was $200 in 2017.  On that basis, your monthly bill in 2025 would be $208 in 2025.

That’s a huge difference.

But ya gotta wonder why they changed the way they presented the numbers.  It just makes an already confusing situation – for many people – all the more confusing.

Most people aren’t really worried about the costs that far out in the future. They are more concerned with more immediate costs, like say the impact on their taxes or money they’d rather spend on health care but will now have to devote to paying for an enormous dam up in Labrador.

All the same, looking at the comparison charts.  The monthly savings aren’t all that great.  Even in 2030,  you’d be saving less than $50 a month.  Nalcor’s total estimated savings over the 14 years between 2016 and 2030 is only $3811. 

That’s $272 a year, on average.  What’s everything else going to cost in 2025 or 2030 if oil is going to be at the sorts of prices Nalcor assumes?  Besides, on the front end of that period the costs are almost identical.  There’s no comparative advantage to switching until well into the future.

Maybe all that is a bit too esoteric for some people.

Just look at the numbers.  Some people are going to conclude  - likely incorrectly - that in a mere two years, the monthly cost for Muskrat Falls for the ordinary consumer appears to have jumped $60 a month.  Once someone gets that idea in their heads,  even if it is completely wrong those $50 a month in theoretical savings way off in the future are going to seem like what they are today:  nothing.

-srbp-

The DG 3 Dog and Pony Show #nlpoli

Big Show.

Room full of people all there because they have a direct interest in the project.

Live streaming by the news media.

And all to release the latest cost estimates for Muskrat Falls.  The show was so big, however, that it looked like someone had decided to puff the whole thing up to make it appear much more important than it was.

That turned out to be a fairly accurate impression.

Getting ready for the onslaught #nlpoli

Some things to bear in mind as the provincial government starts its latest information offensive on Muskrat Falls:

1. These aren’t “final” numbers.  Whether it’s a government phrase or a media invention, the idea that these numbers are “final” is dead wrong.  The DG 3 numbers are nothing more than the latest cost estimate, plus or minus 30%.  We won’t know the final numbers until a decade or more from now.
2. We already know why Nalcor didn’t look at alternatives.  As it looks from CBC’s report, the provincial government spent a chunk of cash to repeat what we’ve already heard from Nalcor – they didn’t look at alternatives to Muskrat Falls to generate electricity for use within the province.  When Nalcor suddenly changed the Lower Churchill project objective in 2010 (from export to domestic use) they should have gone back to DG1 and started from scratch.  That should have included a series of comparisons of alternatives. They didn’t do that.  Instead, they sailed through DG 2.  Nothing has changed.  They still haven’t looked at alternatives.
3. Check for how much information they release about the federal loan guarantee.  The provincial government’s story has morphed over the past couple of months:  at one point the guarantee would be done.  Now we are supposedly getting a range of possible options. 

Overall, don’t expect to see any new information from the provincial government.  Their objective is not to inform or persuade. Their goal is to plough through the next couple of weeks in the hope that they can get the Muskrat off their political backs.

This has been a done deal since 2010. 

Claims to the contrary are complete foolishness.

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The Self-Inflicted Wound #nlpoli

When did the companies involved in the Hebron project sanction it?

Anyone?

Don’t google it.

When did ExxonMobil and all those companies give the project team the green-light to start building the gravity base and all the others bits that will lead to oil production on the fourth field offshore Newfoundland and Labrador?

Sanction. 

The green light.

No?

Darin King and the Tory Charm Offensive #nlpoli

A couple of the exceedingly small changes in the recent cabinet shuffle came out of the Bill 29 fiasco.  Felix Collins went from the relatively low profile job of justice minister to the complete obscurity of intergovernmental affairs.

Everyone saw that.

And over in another corner, there was a switcheroo people didn’t notice quite as much.  Jerome Kennedy gave up the job of directing Government business in the House so that Darin King could take over.

There was no doubt Jerome had completely frigged up in the House, just like there’s no doubt the Tories are way down in the polls.  The two went hand in hand all last session and indeed, for most of the last year or more.

Darin King offers no chance of changing that.

Moebius’ Skipjack

Here are some views of Moebius’ 1/72 scale USS Skipjack held together with green painter’s tape. 

Skipjack was the first nuclear-powered hunter killer submarine using the teardrop hull design that optimised underwater performance.  Skipjack and her sisters were the fastest submarines in the US Navy until the arrival of the Los Angeles class boats in the 1970s. They remained in front line service until they were decommissioned in 1990.  

The navy rushed its first two ballistic missile submarines to sea by modifying the Skipjacks and redirecting some of the parts to what became the George Washington class.  A cut in the hull, the addition of about an extra 130 feet, 16 missile tubes and some other structural changes and the Americans had a working launch platform.  Unfortunately, they could be as noisy as hell. 

Ambitious modellers could convert this kit to a George Washington.  The easier conversion would be to build a GW after its conversion from a missile carrying submarine.  The navy chopped out the missile sections  and stuck the bow and stern back together.  The end results as a Skipjack with the old fairing around the sail that led up to top of the missile section left in place.

The picture quality isn’t great but for those interested in these things, it will give a sense of the size of this kit.

The front of the box says the kit builds to 40 inches.  The back of the box says 42 inches.  The back is right.  That’s a 48 inch level in the foreground and while you can’t see it clearly in this picture, the submarine will be 42 inches almost exactly from the tip of the bow to the point at the end of the five-bladed screw.

Here’s another view from the top:

The hull is split into four sections fore, aft, top, and bottom.  The sections are bagged and wrapped in soft plastic to prevent scratches and dings in shipping. The entire kit is packed into a box 22 inches long. This facilitates shipping and helps to keep the costs down.

The surface detail is finely molded with slightly recessed lines.  There is a waterline molded into the upper hull.  This mars the finish toward the bow where it cross the upper sonar array but you can fix that with a skillful application of some putty.  Fore and aft of the sail, you will find all the hatches marked, included the main access hatches as well as the ones covering the mooring cleats and bollards.

On the sail, most of the batches appear to be outlined, including the two main hatches that open onto the dive planes.  These were used when in port as easy access to docks, as well as for observation and mounting armed watches (guards).  None of the hatches are open so if anyone wants to do so, they’ll have to scratch build the interiors behind them.

The kit includes markings for all Skipjack-class submarines, including Scorpion. 

Out of the box, the kit builds as a submarine in its launch configuration and paintjob.  The two buoy hatches on the topsides are to be painted international orange.  That isn’t correct for an operational submarine.  you’ll have to do some research to decide how you want to paint your submarine.  If you hunt around, you can find some very useful advice on weathering, especially for the anti-fouling red on the lower half of the hull. 

The screw is the original five-bladed design.  The Skipjacks received seven bladed screws during refits in the early to mid- 1970s in order to correct a noise problem.  No biggie. If you build Skipjack from the box and change the paint scheme, you will get an historic ship from the time she sailed into Murmansk harbour and reputedly sat submerged a mere 30 or 40 metres off the end of a busy pier and watched goings-on in one of the old Soviet Union’s major naval bases.

-srbp-

Muskrat Falls Trends #nlpoli

Just for the fun of it, here is a graph of the frequency of searches for the term “Muskrat Falls” in Canada since November 2010.

According to Google the numbers on the graph represent the number of searches for the term relative to the total number of searches.   The numbers are not absolute values but are scaled and normalized.  To get an explanation of that check out Google Trends’ help section.

Aside from the peak in search activity right at the beginning, the most intense searching has been within the past couple of months.  Interest didn’t seem to ramp up on the project until the fall of 2011 except for a couple of brief periods that seem to coincide with when the House was open.

If you limit the search to just Newfoundland and Labrador, you get a fairly constant level of searching.

The letters mark relevant news stories.

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From wonderment to bereavement #nlpoli

The decline in the quality of public life in our province over the past decade is matched by a decline in other places across Canada and in Ottawa.

For those who may not have noticed some of the commentary on this here are three pieces worth considering:

• Allen Gregg:  1984 in 2012  - the assault on reason
• Susan Delacourt:  a lesson in the art of political debate
• Chantal Hebert:  House of Commons no longer a source of wonder for a journalist

-srbp-

The Business Case for Muskrat Falls #nlpoli

All sorts of business people in Newfoundland and Labrador love Muskrat Falls.

Funny thing is that they don;t talk about risk, profits, cash flows, return on their investment, and other stuff you’d expect business people to talk about. 

Nope.  They say stuff like “We believe in good things for our province.”

Who doesn’t?

They say things like “… we believe we have the courage to harness the opportunity before us and make these things happen.”

So that started the old gears turning in your humble e-scribbler’s old noggin.  What would it be like if they listened to a business pitch for Muskrat Falls just the same way that Nalcor and the provincial government is pitching Muskrat Falls?

Let’s not get distracted by alternatives and public utilities board and megawatts and all that.  Let’s just talk about making the old staple product in business school:  widgets.  And just for the sake of convenience, let’s make the pitch to the province’s greatest living businessman, the Old Man Hisself.

Muskrat Falls – The Importance of Transparency #nlpoli

Nalcor will install new generating capacity at Portland Creek in the mid-2030s despite having about 1200 gigawatt hours of  electricity available from Muskrat Falls.

In his latest assessment - Muskrat Falls – The Importance of Transparency [scribd pdf] -  JM concludes that Nalcor apparently plans to build Portland Creek  at additional cost to consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador in order to keep capacity available at Muskrat Falls to meet the commitment to Emera.

Peckford Book Signings #nlpoli

Because some people have asked, here is a list of upcoming book signing opportunities by Brian Peckford for his memoir Some day the sun will shine and have not will be no more.

Check the Flanker Press site for more information on the book, including how to order.

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

2PM - 5PM
Costco, St. John's

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

6PM - 9PM
Gander Co-op

Thursday, October 25, 2012

1PM - 4PM
The Book Worm, Gander

6PM - 9PM
Gander Co-op

Friday, October 26, 2012

1PM - 4PM
Shoppers Drug Mart, Lewisporte

6:30PM - 9PM
The Bookmark, Grand Falls-Windsor

Saturday, October 27, 2012

1PM - 3PM
Island Treasures, Corner Brook

4PM - 6PM
Coles, Corner Brook

-srbp-

When engineering becomes imagineering #nlpoli

Nalcor issued a news release on Monday to correct inaccurate statements about the water management agreement between Nalcor and Churchill Falls (Labrador) Corporation.

Sounds good, except that Nalcor didn’t identify who made the statements.

Nalcor didn’t indicate hat the statements were.

Nor did the company indicate how the statements were inaccurate.

So basically, the company corrected nothing about nothing.

While that is telling – Nalcor claims aren’t backed by evidence -  that’s not the interesting thing.

The Separated at Birth Comparison

Mark Quinn, the guy who reports the news on CBC.

Stuart Bloom, the guy who owns the comic book store on everyone’s favourite show.

-srbp-

Hydro’s Problem Questions #nlpoli

As the Telegram reported on Saturday, the Public Utilities Board has suspended consideration of Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro’s 2013 capital works application.

The company is having trouble answering a couple of questions.

Here are the ones that are causing problems.

One fine Friday afternoon, or change versus more of the same #nlpoli

A little over a week ago, Kathy Dunderdale told the provincial Conservative annual meeting that her administration is overspending. Dunderdale acknowledged yet again what she and her predecessor have admitted since 2009. 

The provincial economy is overly dependent on offshore oil, Dunderdale told her fellow Tories.

Dunderdale and the Tories are at historic lows in the polls for a majority Tory government.  Dunderdale announced a cabinet shuffle to her caucus months ago and to the public weeks ago.

After weeks of waiting, Dunderdale finally changed her cabinet on Friday afternoon.

Stephen Harper and Principle #nlpoli

Premier Kathy Dunderdale, from her unscripted speech at the Tory party annual meeting, via the Telegram’s James McLeod:

We didn’t support the Harper government, people of Newfoundland and Labrador didn’t. You know, somebody who didn’t have principle could’ve walked away from the commitment to the loan guarantee. What would the consequence have been? We wouldn’t elect anyone for a long time to that party? He didn’t, he absolutely maintained his commitment to the people of this province. You’ll see what that means in the next couple of weeks, but it’s hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars. He didn’t have to do it, but he did it. He made a promise to the people of the province, and he kept it. And it’s important as Tories, because we tore strips off him when we believe he needed to have that done, and here was Miss Buffo out leading the crowd. Not everything has to be a brawl on the steps of Confederation Building, remember that too. But there comes a time when you’ve got to stand your ground, and b’ys, get out of the way, and that was one of them. I made no apologies then, and I don’t make them now.

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Sally’s Cove, Labrador #nlpoli

During the last federal election two polling stations in the riding of Labrador closed for two hours after an Elections Canada worker drove away with the ballot boxes, according to the Toronto Sun.

According to the Sun:

A spokesman for Elections Canada said an employee in Labrador thought ballot boxes were for "training" and drove away with materials for about 20 minutes. The employee was then called back to the polling stations, located at a legion and a hall, by another officer and the station was reopened.

-srbp-

 

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The Dangers of Being a Mythbuster – 50 is the new 70 #nlpoli

Look around and anyone can find a huge amount of information about Muskrat Falls and electricity in Newfoundland and Labrador.

For all that, though, there is a great deal of misinformation out there.  That only adds to confusion some people are experiencing.  As disappointing as it is, misinformation remains a fact of life in the Muskrat falls discussion.

As a couple of recent posts have shown, some of the misinformation turned up in a single online commentary recently posted. Something good can come out of everything, as it seems and so this third post corrects the misinformation and replaces it other issues and more substantive information.

The Challenge of Perspective #nlpoli

From Kathy Dunderdale’s unscripted speech to Conservative party delegates at the 2012 annual meeting:

Only the people who love us very much will be around when we finish this job because it takes over your life. I remember being in a Treasury Board meeting and somebody saying, you know, you can’t do that. You can’t expect somebody to drive a hundred miles a day and work for minimum wage, and somebody said, well sure, you ask Ross Wiseman to do it every day.

Loyola Sullivan and conflict of interest #nlpoli

From the report by federal conflict of interest and ethics commission into certain actions by former fisheries ambassador Loyola Sullivan:

In June 2011, after consulting with my Office about whether he could take the position, Mr. Sullivan took up the position of Vice President of Resource Management and Sustainability at Ocean Choice International (Ocean Choice). In that position he had several interactions with Fisheries and Oceans Canada and Foreign Affairs and International Trade Canada related to matters of interest to Ocean Choice during his one-year post-employment cooling-off period. He also attended a consultation organized by Fisheries and Oceans on behalf of the Groundfish Enterprise Allocation Council.

During my examination I found that several of these interactions were made in order to persuade federal government officials to make a decision to the advantage of Ocean Choice and, in one case, to change a policy in accordance with the position of the Groundfish Enterprise Allocation Council. In my view, these interactions involved making representations. I have therefore found that Mr. Sullivan contravened subsection 35(2) of the [Conflict of Interest] Act.

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