Interesting that Premier Danny Williams spent a lot of time during his trip out west telling people about the oil, gas and hydro-electric projects under development in Newfoundland and Labrador.
Odd that people in this province wouldn't know what the heck he is talking about.
In Newfoundland and Labrador, the last poll showed the economy was the number one issue for people in the province.
62% of those polled disapproved of Danny's handling of the economy.
There's good reason for their view:
Hebron is dead.
Hibernia South is not completely dead but Carnell's is warming up the hearse as we speak.
Yes, the Lower Churchill is being studied but until Danny can come up with $9.0 billion, it remains exactly the same as the Frank Moores development 30 years ago: a promise.
There are no gas projects under development since there is no gas royalty regime. Government has been sitting on that for a decade, although there is a possibility Danny Williams will finally issue it sometime this year.
There is a liquid natural gas plant being studied for Placentia Bay but studies don't count. Ditto the oil refinery study.
Outside of the CVRD smelter/refinery for Voisey's Bay that CVRD wants to fast-track, there isn't anything in the development pipeline. Danny stopped it all.
So what is the Premier talking about?
Only he knows, apparently, like only he knows about this fish plant collapse thing he kept to himself.
Interestingly enough, Danny Williams talks about having an economy here in about 10 years.
That's interesting because Danny won't be around in 10 years. He'll be out of office in three, satisfied at progress and off to some new adventure. That is, if he isn't out by Easter frustrated at all the scandals and resignations in his administration. (That was the mood in early January, people; it could come back.)
Williams' "10 year" comment is interesting because three years ago he said it would take him two terms - eight years - to start producing results. Now with five years to run on that promise, he suddenly slides the time scale back to another decade from now. Danny Williams is always ready for a better tomorrow. Seems like the farther away tomorrow is, the better.
What's most interesting of all though, is that if Williams had been able to close the deal on Hebron, done his job on Hibernia South and produced the energy plan already - as other governments have done before him - we wouldn't be looking at a decade before people could think about maybe returning home.
Nope.
Things would be happening right now.
Instead, Danny Williams is still talking about how good things will be in his New Jerusalem.
Eventually.
28 January 2007
CVRD looking to speed up Long Harbour
This report from the Toronto Star states CVRD is looking to speed up construction of its Long Harbour smelter/refinery to bring it on line before 2011.
Absolutely no sign though, that the company wants to build a second refinery in Labrador.
Wonder where some people get strange ideas like that?
Of course!
They make them up.
Absolutely no sign though, that the company wants to build a second refinery in Labrador.
Wonder where some people get strange ideas like that?
Of course!
They make them up.
Quarterback Harper: Game on!
It's SuperBowl Sunday and what better day to launch a political campaign.
The Globe is reporting the Connies, led by Stephen Harper, will be taking the field with a series of what sound like attack ads.
Yes, the Prime Minister who decries other people's attacks will reportedly "mock Stephane Dion's leadership abilities." If ever there was a more obvious admission that the Connies are just a tad afraid of Dion, this would be it.
Of course, attack ads are nothing new for Stephen Harper. This is the same prime minister who brought you "balloon fear". The link is dead - no point in reminding people of your hypocrisy - but you'll get a reminder of previous Connie negative ads from the rest of the post. Of course, Connie advertising tends to be completely ineffectual, especially between campaigns as this post from August 2005 will remind you.
Anyway, we can all know that the 2007 election campaign is on, whether we go to the polls this spring or sometime in the fall.
The first run of campaign ads tells me so.
The Globe is reporting the Connies, led by Stephen Harper, will be taking the field with a series of what sound like attack ads.
Yes, the Prime Minister who decries other people's attacks will reportedly "mock Stephane Dion's leadership abilities." If ever there was a more obvious admission that the Connies are just a tad afraid of Dion, this would be it.
Of course, attack ads are nothing new for Stephen Harper. This is the same prime minister who brought you "balloon fear". The link is dead - no point in reminding people of your hypocrisy - but you'll get a reminder of previous Connie negative ads from the rest of the post. Of course, Connie advertising tends to be completely ineffectual, especially between campaigns as this post from August 2005 will remind you.
Anyway, we can all know that the 2007 election campaign is on, whether we go to the polls this spring or sometime in the fall.
The first run of campaign ads tells me so.
27 January 2007
Fishery reform needed: scientist
Sometimes it takes an extreme presentation to grab attention.
Not so any more, but many will likely scoff at the idea that entire species will disappear within the next half century if we continue not just current fishing practices but also our overall approach to the marine environment. You can find a summary of Worm's collaborative work with other scientists here and the complete paper, from the magazine Science, here.
This is not Worm's first foray into this research area . In 2003, he authored a paper with Dr. Ransom Myers on the decline of predatory fish species, including cod. They concluded, among other things, that "the global ocean has lost more than 90% of large predatory fishes."
The chart [right] demonstrates the rapid decline of biomass on the southern Grand Banks, but this is only one of
several areas showing a dramatic and rapid biomass depletion in the same relatively short space of time. [left]
Undoubtedly some, predictable, voices will rush forward to blame the entire thing on the federal government and demand compensation for what has been done to "our" fishery. They will note Worm's comments - quoted in the Globe - about Iceland's handline fishery for cod and likely use that as a further argument against the supposedly evil federal government.
What these voices miss - aside from, in one case, complicity in destroying local cod stocks through overfishing - is that the changes required in local fishing practices go far beyond the transient issues of who owns a fish processing company in this province or how many fish processors can work for poverty wages, topped off with federal hand-outs.
The fish processing sector in Newfoundland and Labrador has long employed considerably more people than needed. That economic demand was one of several factors that contributed to the intense fishing pressure placed on stocks throughout the last half of the 20th century. That demand continued right up to the cod moratorium in 1992.
The demand for quota is no less driven by the pressure from fish harvesters in all sizes of vessels. The current fishing management system - evolved over 50 years - continues to press harvesters to harvest more, to increase pressure on new species such as shrimp, and generally to contribute to the drastic decline noted by Myers and Worm. The demand to keep all plants open, the constant cry for a food fishery - and a commercial fishery on a damaged stock like cod - are all indications that many in Newfoundland and Labrador simply have not grasped the magnitude of the problem nor the folly of their own efforts.
Neither the federal nor provincial governments alone or together decimated fish stocks. The current state of the fishery in Newfoundland and Labrador was driven by many factors. Fixing the problem will take a deliberate effort in which established interest will have to be put aside.
The answer does not lie in simply copying Iceland's hook and line fishery. Neither does it rest with developing a collective marketing effort: surely better advertising is a suggestion from people who truly have no grasp of the issue at hand. Nor does the answer lie in encouraging migrant labour for local fishplants. Such actions are simplistic.
Changes needed in the Newfoundland and Labrador fishery will be sweeping and touch every aspect of both current operations and our collective attitudes toward the industry. it will require leadership from politicians and others in the community with a clear-eyed view of both the problem and the solution - or at least the way to achieve a solution.
Sadly, there seems to be no one in Newfoundland and Labrador - neither in the government, the opposition, the union or among processors - who can provide that leadership. We may be in as desperate a spot as we were nearly a century ago when one man's ideas for reform were rejected across the board in the then-country of Newfoundland, only to adopted elsewhere with great success.
At least then, someone in Newfoundland and Labrador seemed to have a clue about what to do.
Boris Worm, co-author of a controversial report that projects the collapse of all of the world's commercially fished stocks within 50 years, said there is still a chance for already fragile fisheries to rebound if certain measures are introduced.Only two decades ago, the idea of species collapse would have had Dr. Worm laughed off the podium right after the guy who said Men in Black was a documentary.
Not so any more, but many will likely scoff at the idea that entire species will disappear within the next half century if we continue not just current fishing practices but also our overall approach to the marine environment. You can find a summary of Worm's collaborative work with other scientists here and the complete paper, from the magazine Science, here.
This is not Worm's first foray into this research area . In 2003, he authored a paper with Dr. Ransom Myers on the decline of predatory fish species, including cod. They concluded, among other things, that "the global ocean has lost more than 90% of large predatory fishes."
The chart [right] demonstrates the rapid decline of biomass on the southern Grand Banks, but this is only one of
several areas showing a dramatic and rapid biomass depletion in the same relatively short space of time. [left]Undoubtedly some, predictable, voices will rush forward to blame the entire thing on the federal government and demand compensation for what has been done to "our" fishery. They will note Worm's comments - quoted in the Globe - about Iceland's handline fishery for cod and likely use that as a further argument against the supposedly evil federal government.
What these voices miss - aside from, in one case, complicity in destroying local cod stocks through overfishing - is that the changes required in local fishing practices go far beyond the transient issues of who owns a fish processing company in this province or how many fish processors can work for poverty wages, topped off with federal hand-outs.
The fish processing sector in Newfoundland and Labrador has long employed considerably more people than needed. That economic demand was one of several factors that contributed to the intense fishing pressure placed on stocks throughout the last half of the 20th century. That demand continued right up to the cod moratorium in 1992.
The demand for quota is no less driven by the pressure from fish harvesters in all sizes of vessels. The current fishing management system - evolved over 50 years - continues to press harvesters to harvest more, to increase pressure on new species such as shrimp, and generally to contribute to the drastic decline noted by Myers and Worm. The demand to keep all plants open, the constant cry for a food fishery - and a commercial fishery on a damaged stock like cod - are all indications that many in Newfoundland and Labrador simply have not grasped the magnitude of the problem nor the folly of their own efforts.
Neither the federal nor provincial governments alone or together decimated fish stocks. The current state of the fishery in Newfoundland and Labrador was driven by many factors. Fixing the problem will take a deliberate effort in which established interest will have to be put aside.
The answer does not lie in simply copying Iceland's hook and line fishery. Neither does it rest with developing a collective marketing effort: surely better advertising is a suggestion from people who truly have no grasp of the issue at hand. Nor does the answer lie in encouraging migrant labour for local fishplants. Such actions are simplistic.
Changes needed in the Newfoundland and Labrador fishery will be sweeping and touch every aspect of both current operations and our collective attitudes toward the industry. it will require leadership from politicians and others in the community with a clear-eyed view of both the problem and the solution - or at least the way to achieve a solution.
Sadly, there seems to be no one in Newfoundland and Labrador - neither in the government, the opposition, the union or among processors - who can provide that leadership. We may be in as desperate a spot as we were nearly a century ago when one man's ideas for reform were rejected across the board in the then-country of Newfoundland, only to adopted elsewhere with great success.
At least then, someone in Newfoundland and Labrador seemed to have a clue about what to do.
Fish processing dead in five years: Danny Williams
Right at the start of a story on Danny Williams trek to Alberta to hug something, came this curious comment:
The fish processing sector in this province needs to shrink in size and find new ways of lowering costs. Importing migrant labour to split fish while government policy creates migrant labourers of our own people isn't the solution.
In fact, that just makes the overcapacity in the processing sector - a chronic problem since the 1950s and 1960s - a continuing problem rather than one we solve for once and for all. We need to start treating the fishery like a business, not a social welfare program.
Danny Williams has some explaining to do when he gets back from hugging Alberta.
Williams certainly needs to explain his government's fish processing policy.
And while he's at it, maybe the suddenly touchy-feely Premier can hug up to a microphone and explain why he never mentioned this imminent collapse thing before now.
Not like he hasn't had say three years and a fisheriesbullshit waste-of-time session summit to do it.
The East Coast fish processing industry will collapse in five years if they can't attract overseas workers, Premier Williams said.Just open the borders, Danny? Surely you can't be serious.
"We have to open up our borders as soon as possible."
The fish processing sector in this province needs to shrink in size and find new ways of lowering costs. Importing migrant labour to split fish while government policy creates migrant labourers of our own people isn't the solution.
In fact, that just makes the overcapacity in the processing sector - a chronic problem since the 1950s and 1960s - a continuing problem rather than one we solve for once and for all. We need to start treating the fishery like a business, not a social welfare program.
Danny Williams has some explaining to do when he gets back from hugging Alberta.Williams certainly needs to explain his government's fish processing policy.
And while he's at it, maybe the suddenly touchy-feely Premier can hug up to a microphone and explain why he never mentioned this imminent collapse thing before now.
Not like he hasn't had say three years and a fisheries
-srbp-
Gordon Pinsent's hometown on block?
Abitibi Consolidated is looking for cost-savings at one of its most expensive mills in North America.
Problem is - as in the past - no one will want to save any cash. in the story above, the union head doesn't want lay-offs.
In this news release from Danny Williams' natural resources mouthpiece, we get the threat that if Abitibi closes one of its two paper machines at Grand Falls, they can expect to shut the whole mill.
Roger Grimes originally made that threat and amended the legislation to allow the provincial government to revoke access to timber.
No fibre.
No mill.
No one took Grimes seriously because of the jobs lost, cash to the economy and...well, the prospect of the company suing the government for taking it out of business for no good reason. Roger Grimes was many things but he wasn't given to thinking and acting irrationally.
The difference in this case is that Danny Williams has shown his willingness to kill more than one project - and all the jobs - if he is in the mood at the moment. We are all too familiar with the routine, right down to the trips to Alberta to talk about the homing pigeons and embracing that province's economic miracle.
So we might just be saying goodbye to a second paper mill in the province in a little over a year, not because the mill can't run but because nobody wants to deal with the problem at hand in a sensible, rational manner.
Or, if the current Premier lives up to his brand, because the company took a difficult but necessary business decision - close No. 7 machine - and Danny pulled the trigger on the whole mill just because he could.
Let's hope people start talking sense soon, the provincial government included, for a change.
Otherwise, Gordon Pinsent's home town could become yet another ghost town, and there'd be no one to blame but...well, you know.
Problem is - as in the past - no one will want to save any cash. in the story above, the union head doesn't want lay-offs.
In this news release from Danny Williams' natural resources mouthpiece, we get the threat that if Abitibi closes one of its two paper machines at Grand Falls, they can expect to shut the whole mill.
Roger Grimes originally made that threat and amended the legislation to allow the provincial government to revoke access to timber.
No fibre.
No mill.
No one took Grimes seriously because of the jobs lost, cash to the economy and...well, the prospect of the company suing the government for taking it out of business for no good reason. Roger Grimes was many things but he wasn't given to thinking and acting irrationally.
The difference in this case is that Danny Williams has shown his willingness to kill more than one project - and all the jobs - if he is in the mood at the moment. We are all too familiar with the routine, right down to the trips to Alberta to talk about the homing pigeons and embracing that province's economic miracle.
So we might just be saying goodbye to a second paper mill in the province in a little over a year, not because the mill can't run but because nobody wants to deal with the problem at hand in a sensible, rational manner.
Or, if the current Premier lives up to his brand, because the company took a difficult but necessary business decision - close No. 7 machine - and Danny pulled the trigger on the whole mill just because he could.
Let's hope people start talking sense soon, the provincial government included, for a change.
Otherwise, Gordon Pinsent's home town could become yet another ghost town, and there'd be no one to blame but...well, you know.
26 January 2007
Did you say rheume?
Obviously the French socialist party knows it doesn't stand a hope in hell now that its candidate has shown herself to be hopelessly inept twice in one week.
The latest: falling for a comedian posing as Jean Charest and endorsing Corsican independence.
Here's an English language take on it.
She probably thought he said Inspector Clouseau was calling on the telefoon.
The latest: falling for a comedian posing as Jean Charest and endorsing Corsican independence.
Here's an English language take on it.
She probably thought he said Inspector Clouseau was calling on the telefoon.
Charest suggests Euro-trade for Canada
From Premier Jean Charest comes this excellent suggestion on a free trade agreement between Canada and the European Union.
As if on cue, Charest received this endorsement and this one from Quebec business on the idea.
For Newfoundland and Labrador, the prospect of free trade with Europe has some positive aspects.
Upside: Newfoundland and Labrador is the closest point in North America to Europe. That holds huge potential for economic growth given the shortened flying and shipping times. For mainlanders reading this, a jet leaving St. John's can be at Gatwick in something like three and a half hours.
Downside: Any new industrial development might have involve a major deal with government.
Saving grace: The deal likely couldn't come into force until after 2010, meaning a certain bird-lover will likely have flown the coup by then.
Upside: European trade barriers on products like shrimp would drop, again benefiting Newfoundland and Labrador exporters.
Upside: The seal hunt would likely be shut down, thereby ending March Madness and second rate celebrities debating Paul and his ex-wife on Larry King Live about whether they are in Charlottetown Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown Newfoundland or Charlottetown Labrador.
Charest pronounces his trip to the world economic summit in Davos to be a success, here, en francais.
______________________
Meanwhile, one of the four Atlantic premiers was accosted by an expat from his own province. Three guesses which one is was. The Premier, not the ex-pat.
In this story, by the way, Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Danny Williams is quoted as saying that people from this province are like homing pigeons. Well, he treats them as if they weren't the homing variety but either way, the comment is more than a little insulting.
He uses this like almost as much as he says "quite frankly", or coughs whenever he is being scrummed and is a tad uncomfortable.
Danny needs new joke writers before someone flips him the bird.
As if on cue, Charest received this endorsement and this one from Quebec business on the idea.
For Newfoundland and Labrador, the prospect of free trade with Europe has some positive aspects.
Upside: Newfoundland and Labrador is the closest point in North America to Europe. That holds huge potential for economic growth given the shortened flying and shipping times. For mainlanders reading this, a jet leaving St. John's can be at Gatwick in something like three and a half hours.
Downside: Any new industrial development might have involve a major deal with government.
Saving grace: The deal likely couldn't come into force until after 2010, meaning a certain bird-lover will likely have flown the coup by then.
Upside: European trade barriers on products like shrimp would drop, again benefiting Newfoundland and Labrador exporters.
Upside: The seal hunt would likely be shut down, thereby ending March Madness and second rate celebrities debating Paul and his ex-wife on Larry King Live about whether they are in Charlottetown Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown Newfoundland or Charlottetown Labrador.
Charest pronounces his trip to the world economic summit in Davos to be a success, here, en francais.
______________________
Meanwhile, one of the four Atlantic premiers was accosted by an expat from his own province. Three guesses which one is was. The Premier, not the ex-pat.
In this story, by the way, Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Danny Williams is quoted as saying that people from this province are like homing pigeons. Well, he treats them as if they weren't the homing variety but either way, the comment is more than a little insulting.
He uses this like almost as much as he says "quite frankly", or coughs whenever he is being scrummed and is a tad uncomfortable.
Danny needs new joke writers before someone flips him the bird.
Friday quickies
1. Williams and Calvert seek clarification of PM's Equalization comments. From the Star Phoenix.
2. Uncertainty in the NL oilpatch.
3. Williams wants to hug Alberta's job boom. Most revealing quote: "I'd love to have them all home," he [Williams] said. "However, the projects and the jobs are not there yet. We're building our economy."
Any word on when we might start trying to get "there"?
4. Terra Nova back online; provincial revenues drop temporarily. The provincial government will collect 5% royalties until the costs of the recent refit to the Terra Nova FPSO have been recovered. The lower royalty period should last through the first quarter of 2007, depending on oil prices. After that, it's back to 30%.
5. "Hibernia not only project for PetroCan". From the Financial Post's Claudia Cattaneo. Most interesting quote: "It's hard to say whether this is an opening gambit on some other negotiations or what," [PetroCan CEO] Mr. [Ron] Brenneman said. "We have not been very good at predicting responses in that arena."
Ron might find it prudent to start with assuming a "No", irrespective of what the companies put on the table. Everything after that is a pleasant surprise. Basically the Premier's negotiating position is the same as with Ottawa in 2004:
DW: "I am not happy. Make me happy."
The Other Guy: "Well, what would make you happy?"
DW: "Well, I don't know. Suggest something."
TOG: "Ok. Well how about this? That's what you have said in the past."
DW: "Yeah well, that makes me happy, but I am just not happy enough. Make me happier."
TOG: "Sheesh."
Seriously though, it is exactly that uncertainty - caused totally by policy confusion/inaction within the current provincial government - that brands Newfoundland and Labrador as place where it is difficult if not impossible to do business.
Well, at least until 2010 when the premier is expected to pack it in.
6. "Premier's messages misses mark". Editorial from the Friday Telegram. Not exactly as powerful as the Star Phoenix columnist's critique of his own Premier, but for local media, almost a humble suggestion that the Premier might maybe possibly think about considering - at least just for a second, and only if he has the time given all the problems others are causing him - that he might theoretically, but only if he really wants to, maybe changing a teensy bit of his way of doing business.
But only if he wants. Otherwise, never mind.
7. Spittle in the wind. Fish processing rep Derek Butler offers what elsewhere would be readily accepted as reasonable, but here is likely to be condemned out-of-hand as treason: run the fishery like a business, not as a social welfare program.
2. Uncertainty in the NL oilpatch.
3. Williams wants to hug Alberta's job boom. Most revealing quote: "I'd love to have them all home," he [Williams] said. "However, the projects and the jobs are not there yet. We're building our economy."
Any word on when we might start trying to get "there"?
4. Terra Nova back online; provincial revenues drop temporarily. The provincial government will collect 5% royalties until the costs of the recent refit to the Terra Nova FPSO have been recovered. The lower royalty period should last through the first quarter of 2007, depending on oil prices. After that, it's back to 30%.
5. "Hibernia not only project for PetroCan". From the Financial Post's Claudia Cattaneo. Most interesting quote: "It's hard to say whether this is an opening gambit on some other negotiations or what," [PetroCan CEO] Mr. [Ron] Brenneman said. "We have not been very good at predicting responses in that arena."
Ron might find it prudent to start with assuming a "No", irrespective of what the companies put on the table. Everything after that is a pleasant surprise. Basically the Premier's negotiating position is the same as with Ottawa in 2004:
DW: "I am not happy. Make me happy."
The Other Guy: "Well, what would make you happy?"
DW: "Well, I don't know. Suggest something."
TOG: "Ok. Well how about this? That's what you have said in the past."
DW: "Yeah well, that makes me happy, but I am just not happy enough. Make me happier."
TOG: "Sheesh."
Seriously though, it is exactly that uncertainty - caused totally by policy confusion/inaction within the current provincial government - that brands Newfoundland and Labrador as place where it is difficult if not impossible to do business.
Well, at least until 2010 when the premier is expected to pack it in.
6. "Premier's messages misses mark". Editorial from the Friday Telegram. Not exactly as powerful as the Star Phoenix columnist's critique of his own Premier, but for local media, almost a humble suggestion that the Premier might maybe possibly think about considering - at least just for a second, and only if he has the time given all the problems others are causing him - that he might theoretically, but only if he really wants to, maybe changing a teensy bit of his way of doing business.
But only if he wants. Otherwise, never mind.
7. Spittle in the wind. Fish processing rep Derek Butler offers what elsewhere would be readily accepted as reasonable, but here is likely to be condemned out-of-hand as treason: run the fishery like a business, not as a social welfare program.
25 January 2007
Rick Mercer named to honourary air force post
Comedian Rick Mercer is the new honorary colonel of 423 Squadron, a maritime helicopter unit with the Canadian Forces' 12 Wing in Shearwater Nova Scotia.
The official news release can be found here, with another version and some background on honorary colonels here.
Your humble e-scribbler spent a brief period in early 1997 as Wing Public Affairs Officer for 12 Wing. The job included the chance to go flying (always a big plus) and the opportunity to broaden the outlook of an army type through work with the air force and indirectly the navy. Overall, though, it gave the rare privilege of working with some truly fine people.
Forget the stuff you hear about Sea Kings, although the aircraft is long past its sell before date. The men and women of 12 Wing are dedicated professionals. That applies to everyone from the
nut-turner in 12 Air Maintenance Squadron who labours to keep the Sea Kings airworthy to the the newbie aircrew or veteran instructors in 406 Squadron to the operational people in 423 Squadron on the east coast or 443 on the west.
Sit in the mess over dinner and have a chat with two members of a crew that rescued a bunch of Bulgarians from a sinking freighter in hideous weather conditions. They were both quiet but nonetheless confident.
The simple way they described the mission belied the risks: it took five or six trips in high seas with danger coming from the rapidly rising and falling masts from the ship, if nothing else. Like say the serious lack of soap and water on a Bulgarian freighter that was - for the pilot and co-pilot - literally blindingly obvious once the first of the sailors was hauled into the "bathtub".
Then there were the people who had been in Somalia in 1993. One crew wound up spending a very scary night on the ground somewhere in Mogadishu until they were rescued next day.
Then there was the airframe - 423 (?). Recovering on HMCS whatever, the helicopter had a mechanic failure. The pilot pitched the aircraft forward and landed hard on the deck but with a chunk hanging off the landing area.
No injuries - thankfully - but big-time structural problems that kept the aircraft limited to the odd hop around Shearwater. Some wag joked about taking the associate minister up for a hop in the old dear when said politico was scheduled for a courtesy visit. The wit wanted to show the minister what they were working with, duct tape and all, given that Jean Chretien had cancelled the EH-101s and was - at that time - not disposed to replace them any too soon. The associate minister never paid the visit and just as well too since there were times in the planning when the idea of giving her a run in 423 didn't get laughed off the table.
Those days are gone and new helicopters are soon to enter service.
And the men and women of 12 Wing have a new honorary colonel who will fit right in.
There'll be plenty of joking and carrying on, but when things get serious, there's no one better to have on board.
The official news release can be found here, with another version and some background on honorary colonels here.
Your humble e-scribbler spent a brief period in early 1997 as Wing Public Affairs Officer for 12 Wing. The job included the chance to go flying (always a big plus) and the opportunity to broaden the outlook of an army type through work with the air force and indirectly the navy. Overall, though, it gave the rare privilege of working with some truly fine people.
Forget the stuff you hear about Sea Kings, although the aircraft is long past its sell before date. The men and women of 12 Wing are dedicated professionals. That applies to everyone from the
nut-turner in 12 Air Maintenance Squadron who labours to keep the Sea Kings airworthy to the the newbie aircrew or veteran instructors in 406 Squadron to the operational people in 423 Squadron on the east coast or 443 on the west.
Sit in the mess over dinner and have a chat with two members of a crew that rescued a bunch of Bulgarians from a sinking freighter in hideous weather conditions. They were both quiet but nonetheless confident.
The simple way they described the mission belied the risks: it took five or six trips in high seas with danger coming from the rapidly rising and falling masts from the ship, if nothing else. Like say the serious lack of soap and water on a Bulgarian freighter that was - for the pilot and co-pilot - literally blindingly obvious once the first of the sailors was hauled into the "bathtub".
Then there were the people who had been in Somalia in 1993. One crew wound up spending a very scary night on the ground somewhere in Mogadishu until they were rescued next day.
Then there was the airframe - 423 (?). Recovering on HMCS whatever, the helicopter had a mechanic failure. The pilot pitched the aircraft forward and landed hard on the deck but with a chunk hanging off the landing area.
No injuries - thankfully - but big-time structural problems that kept the aircraft limited to the odd hop around Shearwater. Some wag joked about taking the associate minister up for a hop in the old dear when said politico was scheduled for a courtesy visit. The wit wanted to show the minister what they were working with, duct tape and all, given that Jean Chretien had cancelled the EH-101s and was - at that time - not disposed to replace them any too soon. The associate minister never paid the visit and just as well too since there were times in the planning when the idea of giving her a run in 423 didn't get laughed off the table.
Those days are gone and new helicopters are soon to enter service.
And the men and women of 12 Wing have a new honorary colonel who will fit right in.
There'll be plenty of joking and carrying on, but when things get serious, there's no one better to have on board.
Equalization Follies: Two Views
Herewith a link to Offal News and its contribution to the Equalization chatter.
There is a contrast, as Offal notes, between the view from one Saskatchewan columnist and the Telly news story.
I'd go a step farther though and point out the volume of sheer bunk - things that are patently false - contained in Danny Williams' comments.
Read the two. It's a study in contrasts.
There is a contrast, as Offal notes, between the view from one Saskatchewan columnist and the Telly news story.
I'd go a step farther though and point out the volume of sheer bunk - things that are patently false - contained in Danny Williams' comments.
Read the two. It's a study in contrasts.
A bird in the hand
Loyola Sullivan was right.
On the same day Sullivan resigned, he was quoted by vocm.com as saying that Newfoundland and Labrador needed steady economic development.
Turns out Sullivan was the smartest person in the provincial cabinet, a guy with a genuine strategic insight into the province's needs.
Sullivan's comment reflects an understanding that an economic bird in the hand is worth two in the bushes. Economic development - like Hebron and Hibernia South - puts cash, lots of cash in the provincial treasury. It also creates a climate of optimism that encourages other business development and job creation all of which magnifies the economic impact of the development itself.
Beyond that, economic development staunches the flow of young, skilled workers out of the province. Demographic projections for the past decade have shown this province will experience a steady decline in population. At the same time though, the average age of the workforce is increasing and inevitably there will be fewer people producing in the economy than there will be retired people. Those retired people need health care, among other things, and without steady economic growth, it will get harder and harder for the provincial government to pay for the increased costs.
Newfoundland and Labrador is not alone in Canada in facing that prospect. It's just that here, and interestingly in Quebec, as well, the economic consequences of demographic shifts will hit hard.
Really hard.
Unless there is sustained economic development.
Today's announcement on apprenticeship registration and qualification is effectively an admission of the folly of a public policy that repeatedly scorns economic development solely for the short-term political gain. Brian Tobin's "not-on-teaspoon" on Voisey's Bay was bad enough; Danny Williams now applies the same pernicious policy to the entire economy.
The new apprenticeship policy will allow young men and women in skilled trades to gain credit for their work in Alberta toward journeyperson papers in this province, provided they retain a permanent residence in this province.
If there was economic development in Newfoundland and Labrador, those young people would already be here. They'd be building the gravity-base system for Hebron. They'd be working at the Long Harbour smelter, and as those projects wind down, they'd be off to Labrador to build the Lower Churchill. [And at Hibernia, we'd be that much closer to 30% royalties instead of the 5% we now receive and will continue to receive for some time more.]
Instead, they are streaming to Alberta in near-record numbers to find high-paid jobs in an economy that is in danger of melting from the heat of activity.
The new policy announced today has nothing to do with developing the local labour force, despite the claim in the government's news release. Any young person who qualifies for the program will be importing personal income taxes to this province from work done in Alberta. They will also count toward this province's Equalization entitlement, and coupled with any success Danny Williams might possibly have on that front, we will wind up drawing cash from Alberta's economy to prop up our own government.
All of that is obviously in lieu of developing our own economy in a sensible, orderly and strategic way. It is diametrically opposite to the goal of every Premier in this province since Confederation and virtually every prime minister in the country before that to develop a prosperous, diverse local economy.
What Premier - Liberal or Conservative - has wanted to stay on the federal hand-out rolls?
Not a one.
Save Danny Williams.
Any other Premier would have hailed the lowering of Equalization payments as one step away from the ignominy of dependence on Uncle Ottawa. News the provincial government will get less Equalization hand-outs this year, even without a changed system, would be celebrated with a holiday. The decrease is caused by one thing alone: the development of our own economy to the point where we actually don't need to suck the public tit on the Rideau. We would be one step closer to becoming a "have" province.
Imagine if you can, the psychological impact of that success.
Imagine the impact such an achievement would have on the people of Newfoundland and Labrador who, after three years of Danny Williams' supposed successes still think of themselves as poor, abused, downtrodden.
Imagine the genuine pride from having a Newfoundland and Labrador Premier delivering a speech - for the first time in almost 60 years - in which his or her province had joined the ranks of Alberta, Ontario, and latterly British Columbia and Saskatchewan.
All you can do these days is imagine such a goal.
Instead, the premier is travelling across the country trying to drum up some support for increasing his province's dependence on economic success somewhere else. At home, his ministers are announcing policies designed to put a poultice on a self-inflicted economic head wound.
But what young man or women, with a bright future and a highly-paid job in Alberta, would opt to become a glorified migrant labourer?
Likely not many. Far cheaper and far better to go where the work is and stay there. If something turns up at home, then make that decision when it happens.
All Newfoundland and Labrador's government can offer these days are unbelievable claims like the one in the news release:
They are birds in the bush.
And what they know, being the smart young men and women they are, is that a bird in the hand is infinitely better.
Too bad someone else doesn't understand that as well as they do.
On the same day Sullivan resigned, he was quoted by vocm.com as saying that Newfoundland and Labrador needed steady economic development.
Turns out Sullivan was the smartest person in the provincial cabinet, a guy with a genuine strategic insight into the province's needs.
Sullivan's comment reflects an understanding that an economic bird in the hand is worth two in the bushes. Economic development - like Hebron and Hibernia South - puts cash, lots of cash in the provincial treasury. It also creates a climate of optimism that encourages other business development and job creation all of which magnifies the economic impact of the development itself.
Beyond that, economic development staunches the flow of young, skilled workers out of the province. Demographic projections for the past decade have shown this province will experience a steady decline in population. At the same time though, the average age of the workforce is increasing and inevitably there will be fewer people producing in the economy than there will be retired people. Those retired people need health care, among other things, and without steady economic growth, it will get harder and harder for the provincial government to pay for the increased costs.
Newfoundland and Labrador is not alone in Canada in facing that prospect. It's just that here, and interestingly in Quebec, as well, the economic consequences of demographic shifts will hit hard.
Really hard.
Unless there is sustained economic development.
Today's announcement on apprenticeship registration and qualification is effectively an admission of the folly of a public policy that repeatedly scorns economic development solely for the short-term political gain. Brian Tobin's "not-on-teaspoon" on Voisey's Bay was bad enough; Danny Williams now applies the same pernicious policy to the entire economy.
The new apprenticeship policy will allow young men and women in skilled trades to gain credit for their work in Alberta toward journeyperson papers in this province, provided they retain a permanent residence in this province.
If there was economic development in Newfoundland and Labrador, those young people would already be here. They'd be building the gravity-base system for Hebron. They'd be working at the Long Harbour smelter, and as those projects wind down, they'd be off to Labrador to build the Lower Churchill. [And at Hibernia, we'd be that much closer to 30% royalties instead of the 5% we now receive and will continue to receive for some time more.]
Instead, they are streaming to Alberta in near-record numbers to find high-paid jobs in an economy that is in danger of melting from the heat of activity.
The new policy announced today has nothing to do with developing the local labour force, despite the claim in the government's news release. Any young person who qualifies for the program will be importing personal income taxes to this province from work done in Alberta. They will also count toward this province's Equalization entitlement, and coupled with any success Danny Williams might possibly have on that front, we will wind up drawing cash from Alberta's economy to prop up our own government.
All of that is obviously in lieu of developing our own economy in a sensible, orderly and strategic way. It is diametrically opposite to the goal of every Premier in this province since Confederation and virtually every prime minister in the country before that to develop a prosperous, diverse local economy.
What Premier - Liberal or Conservative - has wanted to stay on the federal hand-out rolls?
Not a one.
Save Danny Williams.
Any other Premier would have hailed the lowering of Equalization payments as one step away from the ignominy of dependence on Uncle Ottawa. News the provincial government will get less Equalization hand-outs this year, even without a changed system, would be celebrated with a holiday. The decrease is caused by one thing alone: the development of our own economy to the point where we actually don't need to suck the public tit on the Rideau. We would be one step closer to becoming a "have" province.
Imagine if you can, the psychological impact of that success.
Imagine the impact such an achievement would have on the people of Newfoundland and Labrador who, after three years of Danny Williams' supposed successes still think of themselves as poor, abused, downtrodden.
Imagine the genuine pride from having a Newfoundland and Labrador Premier delivering a speech - for the first time in almost 60 years - in which his or her province had joined the ranks of Alberta, Ontario, and latterly British Columbia and Saskatchewan.
All you can do these days is imagine such a goal.
Instead, the premier is travelling across the country trying to drum up some support for increasing his province's dependence on economic success somewhere else. At home, his ministers are announcing policies designed to put a poultice on a self-inflicted economic head wound.
But what young man or women, with a bright future and a highly-paid job in Alberta, would opt to become a glorified migrant labourer?
Likely not many. Far cheaper and far better to go where the work is and stay there. If something turns up at home, then make that decision when it happens.
All Newfoundland and Labrador's government can offer these days are unbelievable claims like the one in the news release:
There are emerging economic opportunities in Newfoundland and Labrador in large-scale development projects such as Lower Churchill, Voisey's Bay and Hebron Ben Nevis, among others. The provincial government is exploring all options to ensure Newfoundland and Labrador is building a qualified and skilled workforce that meets industry demands.The young people likely to be affected by this policy know full-well that beyond the smelter at Long Harbour, the other projects listed are possibilities - not probabilities - in the unknown future.
They are birds in the bush.
And what they know, being the smart young men and women they are, is that a bird in the hand is infinitely better.
Too bad someone else doesn't understand that as well as they do.
Sullivan new fish ambassador
Loyola Sullivan, former Newfoundland and Labrador finance minister, is the new Canadian ambassador for fisheries conservation.Sullivan takes up a post re-established in 2005, having been eliminated in 1996 as reported by ctv.ca.
Public Relations Measurement
Public relations professionals spend a chunk of time trying to measure things. Aside from wondering if what you are doing is actually producing anything other than billings, clients want to see some tangible indication of results for communications programs.
Simple stuff - like saying the story got front page above the fold in a given newspaper - is a bit dated and must inevitably be coupled with other things to give a sense of whether or not the news release got the message across.
Corporate clients want some reliable indicator of what they get for their money; they want to see a return on investment (ROI).
One of the big measurements - and one of the raging debates - is effectiveness.
Just to give an idea of how big an issue measurement is, take a gander at Katie Paine's blog which dedicated entirely to research and evaluation for communications. That's on top of KD Paine and Partners' company website.
There's also Cymfony, a company that does measurement as its entire book of business. The Canadian Public Relations Society measurement committee - yes they even have one - developed a method they endorse. You can find more on it here.
Research is the starting point for any effective plan, let alone a public relations plans. Research is itself a speciality within the public relations field and the real treasure is finding people who can not only spit out data but also paint a coherent picture of what the data means.
Plenty can lay the mosaic individual tiles. Few can then step back and see the profile of Abraham Lincoln.
Bond Papers is the product of research. All the bandwidth devoted to the provincial government positions and how Danny Williams operates comes from observation.
It forms the starting point of what your humble e-scribbler needs to give clients advice on how to approach an issue involving government. What gets put on a computer screen here is just the tip of the over-used iceberg analogy.
Virals, poll goosing and all that you've read about here are the PR equivalent of showing how to lift an ice cube with a piece of string and some salt. The real challenge comes in knowing how to shift the entire freakin' berg of attitudes and behaviour.
And knowing why you want to move the berg in the first place.
All of this is just an excuse to link to a post at Offal News that itself winds up at an amazing website maintained by the New York Times. The Times has used some simple software to let you wander through George Bush's state of the union speeches searching for keywords. You can see where the word turns up, the speech context and the frequency it shows up.
Curious stuff.
Fascinating in a nerdy/geeky sorta way.
But it's inevitably the start of someone's strategic plan.
Simple stuff - like saying the story got front page above the fold in a given newspaper - is a bit dated and must inevitably be coupled with other things to give a sense of whether or not the news release got the message across.
Corporate clients want some reliable indicator of what they get for their money; they want to see a return on investment (ROI).
One of the big measurements - and one of the raging debates - is effectiveness.
Just to give an idea of how big an issue measurement is, take a gander at Katie Paine's blog which dedicated entirely to research and evaluation for communications. That's on top of KD Paine and Partners' company website.
There's also Cymfony, a company that does measurement as its entire book of business. The Canadian Public Relations Society measurement committee - yes they even have one - developed a method they endorse. You can find more on it here.
Research is the starting point for any effective plan, let alone a public relations plans. Research is itself a speciality within the public relations field and the real treasure is finding people who can not only spit out data but also paint a coherent picture of what the data means.
Plenty can lay the mosaic individual tiles. Few can then step back and see the profile of Abraham Lincoln.
Bond Papers is the product of research. All the bandwidth devoted to the provincial government positions and how Danny Williams operates comes from observation.
It forms the starting point of what your humble e-scribbler needs to give clients advice on how to approach an issue involving government. What gets put on a computer screen here is just the tip of the over-used iceberg analogy.
Virals, poll goosing and all that you've read about here are the PR equivalent of showing how to lift an ice cube with a piece of string and some salt. The real challenge comes in knowing how to shift the entire freakin' berg of attitudes and behaviour.
And knowing why you want to move the berg in the first place.
All of this is just an excuse to link to a post at Offal News that itself winds up at an amazing website maintained by the New York Times. The Times has used some simple software to let you wander through George Bush's state of the union speeches searching for keywords. You can see where the word turns up, the speech context and the frequency it shows up.
Curious stuff.
Fascinating in a nerdy/geeky sorta way.
But it's inevitably the start of someone's strategic plan.
24 January 2007
Danny Williams: At odds with himself...again
Courtesy of vocm.com, the latest comment by Premier Danny Williams [right] on the Hibernia South project he cancelled last week:
...He says the inherent conflict of interest is the feds supporting the CNLOPB while they [the federal government] own part of the project. ...There's the case, ladies and gentlemen, against the provincial government having an equity stake in any offshore oil or gas project. How could the provincial government hold veto power over a project it has a financial interest?
Bond readers have already heard about a conflict of interest involving the provincial government and the offshore. It's one of the reasons why the oil companies weren't too fussy about Danny's idea of having the same guy who was negotiating the government's tax take also sitting to negotiate his potential seat at the operators table.
It was a conflict of interest. Bond Papers hit on the notion, then had the conflict of interest issue confirmed by industry sources.
Hebron talks could likely get started if Premier Williams agreed with himself. Sadly, he finds it more productive to argue with himself on more and more issues, instead. With such a diversity of opinion just within a single brain, Danny Williams can actually be a team of one.
Public policy by Sybil.
What a concept.
"Show me the shoes and I'll piss on them", or Danny Williams' latest jihad
Meanwhile, the Council of the Federation meeting is going to be fun, given Danny Williams latest "screw you" message to his fellow Premiers.
The shoeshine guys outside the meeting will be doing a raging book of business patching up the nine pairs of first minister loafers from across Canada the feisty Newfoundland and Labrador premier is set to soak.
In the same story at vocm.com, the Premier Dan is quoted as saying:
Williams says he wants the federal government to make all of the provinces whole however if they experience a financial setback while Newfoundland and Labrador gain more money, then so be it. [Emphasis added]That's what he said; you get to listen to these things while a blizzard rages outside your house.
Once again, it's pretty easy to see Premier Dan at war with himself on the same issue. At the same time as he claimed it would be unthinkable to reduce Newfoundland and Labrador's federal hand-outs, he's quite happy if someone else gets shafted.
Sucks to be them, so to speak.
That sort of bumpf plays well at home among some people, but it will go over like the proverbial flatulence episode in a house of worship. Expect the upcoming council meeting to be a bit on the stormy side, much as the October 2004 meeting would have been had Danny sat his backside in the chair reserved for him. Premiers were more than a bit miffed with Danny's posturing that put his own interest above everyone else's. Same guy. Same message as he is spreading now.
Back then he found an excuse and stormed out of the meeting with all the melodramatic - histrionic (?) - flair he could muster. He did it solely to avoid the tongue-lashing some of his counterparts had ready for him.
Will he find an excuse to storm out or skip the meeting this time? Or will there be fireworks to light up the winter evening in Toronto?
The only thing for sure is that it is highly unlikely Danny Williams will get anything out of his latest crusade except a bunch of ticked off provincial premiers.
Hasta la victoria siempre?
vocm.com seems to have a pipeline into the local Maquis cell.
This is pure guerrilla politics.
Update: The vocm link doesn't seem to work very well. It takes you to the main youtube.com page but you can't find the video. At least your humble e-scribbler couldn't.
Not a problem.
There's a version embedded at dennisrice.ca.
Update 2: Over at Offal News, Our Man in Lono has put this little video in a political communications context.
The Update Strikes Back: Surprise. The thing turns up on NTV along with a couple of other videos. Low production values. Crude message. Does it deserve media attention like this?
As the first comment - and so far only one - said it is "anti-NL". Around here, that wasn't the first thought and unless the Premier and the province are inextricably linked, it's kinda hard to sustain that argument for too long.
But hey it's a gut reaction.
Update 4: Revenge of the Sick: Flip over to youtube.com and you'll find the political viral has had about 3150 views so far. [h/t to Greg for the youtube link]
Will this make Danny reconsider expanding broadband access?
This is pure guerrilla politics.
Update: The vocm link doesn't seem to work very well. It takes you to the main youtube.com page but you can't find the video. At least your humble e-scribbler couldn't.
Not a problem.
There's a version embedded at dennisrice.ca.
Update 2: Over at Offal News, Our Man in Lono has put this little video in a political communications context.
The Update Strikes Back: Surprise. The thing turns up on NTV along with a couple of other videos. Low production values. Crude message. Does it deserve media attention like this?
As the first comment - and so far only one - said it is "anti-NL". Around here, that wasn't the first thought and unless the Premier and the province are inextricably linked, it's kinda hard to sustain that argument for too long.
But hey it's a gut reaction.
Update 4: Revenge of the Sick: Flip over to youtube.com and you'll find the political viral has had about 3150 views so far. [h/t to Greg for the youtube link]
Will this make Danny reconsider expanding broadband access?
Fact Checker: What Lorne and Danny want
A number of news media have made a fundamental mistake in describing what Lorne Calvert and Danny Williams are concerned about.
Equalization is complex subject. It's tedious and it is hard to express simply.
But the Calvert/Williams position is actually easy to understand and describe.
For the purposes of illustration, let's use the cbc.ca story found on the /nl site. Overall, it's a pretty good summary of yesterday's news from Saskatchewan.
Part way through there's this sentence:
Calvert and Williams are concerned the Prime Minister will not keep his election promise to exclude 100% of non-renewable resource revenues from Equalization.
What cbc.ca and others are running makes you think the revenues are out now and Harper is going to put them all in. He doesn't have to: they already are included 100%. The O'Brien panel recommends including half of all resource revenues.
See the difference?
It's a pretty big one, actually.
And for Equalization, it's remarkably simply to state.
Equalization is complex subject. It's tedious and it is hard to express simply.
But the Calvert/Williams position is actually easy to understand and describe.
For the purposes of illustration, let's use the cbc.ca story found on the /nl site. Overall, it's a pretty good summary of yesterday's news from Saskatchewan.
Part way through there's this sentence:
One of their concerns is that a new equalization formula would factor non-renewable resources into the calculations.That's not accurate.
Calvert and Williams are concerned the Prime Minister will not keep his election promise to exclude 100% of non-renewable resource revenues from Equalization.
What cbc.ca and others are running makes you think the revenues are out now and Harper is going to put them all in. He doesn't have to: they already are included 100%. The O'Brien panel recommends including half of all resource revenues.
See the difference?
It's a pretty big one, actually.
And for Equalization, it's remarkably simply to state.
Howard Hunt dies
Everette Howard Hunt, former secret agent, author, alleged inspiration for Tom Cruise's character in Mission: Impossible and one of the co-conspirators in the 1972 Watergate break-in died yesterday, aged 88.
For more background on Watergate, here's a link to the Washington Post site. The paper compiled its coverage - including the original pieces by Carl Bernstein and Bob Woodward - and updated some stories.
The Watergate affair remains a fascinating piece of American history and an amazing piece of journalism that continues to teach lessons today. All Woodward and Bernstein did was never accept the official position, like say "We just need more information".
Instead, they just asked simple questions: who knew what, when did they know and what did they do once they knew?
It is amazing what you can uncover when you just ask simple, logical questions.
Out of that unfolded what would otherwise have remained reported - according to the official version - as a simple burglary.
For more background on Watergate, here's a link to the Washington Post site. The paper compiled its coverage - including the original pieces by Carl Bernstein and Bob Woodward - and updated some stories.
The Watergate affair remains a fascinating piece of American history and an amazing piece of journalism that continues to teach lessons today. All Woodward and Bernstein did was never accept the official position, like say "We just need more information".
Instead, they just asked simple questions: who knew what, when did they know and what did they do once they knew?
It is amazing what you can uncover when you just ask simple, logical questions.
Out of that unfolded what would otherwise have remained reported - according to the official version - as a simple burglary.
Williams' Western Wanderings
1. "Danny Williams: At war with himself". Bond Papers comment on Tuesday's speech.
2. "Premiers stand united", the Star Phoenix coverage, from Saskatoon. Most laughable of a number of laughable comments by Williams: that the O'Brien panel based its finding on "arbitrary" principles and that it was "flawed". Whenever Williams is faced with something he disagrees with, it is, by definition flawed. He never gives reasons he just makes the statement. Of course, in the Danny-centric mind, it doesn't require further explanation since that's the reason it's flawed: because he disagrees with it and he said so.
3. "Maritime premiers go begging in Alberta". The Calgary Sun headline on a Canadian Press story. The story is short but the last line tells it all: a guy from New Brunswick reminds his Premier that he will find his way back to New Brunswick when the wages at home are as good as in Alberta.
2. "Premiers stand united", the Star Phoenix coverage, from Saskatoon. Most laughable of a number of laughable comments by Williams: that the O'Brien panel based its finding on "arbitrary" principles and that it was "flawed". Whenever Williams is faced with something he disagrees with, it is, by definition flawed. He never gives reasons he just makes the statement. Of course, in the Danny-centric mind, it doesn't require further explanation since that's the reason it's flawed: because he disagrees with it and he said so.
3. "Maritime premiers go begging in Alberta". The Calgary Sun headline on a Canadian Press story. The story is short but the last line tells it all: a guy from New Brunswick reminds his Premier that he will find his way back to New Brunswick when the wages at home are as good as in Alberta.
23 January 2007
Danny Williams: At war with himself
In Saskatoon today, Newfoundland and Labrador premier Danny Williams [Left: in February 2005] insisted that the prime Minister must live up to his campaign promise and exclude non-renewable resource revenues from the Equalization formula.In October 2006, Williams told provincial Progressive Conservatives he had supported Harper during the federal election but didn't quite trust him.
In his letter to Harper during last year's election campaign, Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Danny Williams advocated including all resource revenues (renewable and non-renewable) in the Equalization formula. He wrote to Harper that this was the policy of the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador.In the 2004 election campaign, Williams said the Harper plan was not as good as the one he had just negotiated with then-Prime Minister Paul Martin to provide additional Equalization-type payments to the Newfoundland and Labrador provincial government.
Danny Williams is arguing against himself.
He is also undermining his own credibility with national audiences.
Williams knows that his current position - no non-renewable resource revenues - does not treat all provinces equally under Equalization. Provinces that have huge incomes from oil, gas and mining get to hide billions of income the federal top-up program. That gives them considerably more federal transfers than provinces that are less reliant on non-renewables.
Yet, in Saskatoon, Williams told a university audience:
"I think we all know why he might do that. We are facing a federal election and...in the end, equality among provinces takes a back seat to the electoral urgency of currying favour with the majority."Not only does Williams make a false claim about equality, he pits one province against another as deliberate effort to raise political ire in English-speaking Canada with Quebec. It's not the first time he has criticised Quebec, either explicitly or - as in this case - implicitly.
Williams also knows that the expert panel that reported last year found that both positions he has advocated do not treat provinces equally or fairly. The O'Brien panel found that the all-in approach disadvantages provinces with non-renewable resources. The approach Williams now favours doesn't either.
What O'Brien and his expert panelists proposed instead was including half of all resources revenues. According to O'Brien, the panel's approach would represent as fair a compromise between the two extreme positions - both advocated by Danny Williams.
And obviously by rejecting the O'Brien panel, Williams is effectively arguing against a compromise of his own positions.
Beyond that, however, Williams takes an approach - pitting province against province - he criticizes others for supposedly taking:
"But don't pit provinces against each other, don't take from one to give to another and use it against them, don't break firm written commitments - honour them."Sadly, it's not the first time he's done that either. In October, Williams launched his re-election campaign by attacking the federal government, just as he today accuses the federal government of putting more money into a single province as a way of currying favour for the Conservatives.
In the Equalization fight, however, Williams stands no chance of winning. He is isolated among Premiers, with only the ineffectual premier of Saskatchewan on his side. The position Williams now defends is demonstrably as unfair to some provinces as the one he advocated only last year.
Incredible as it may seem, Danny Williams is at war with himself.
In such a situation, he cannot help but lose and that, is proof of the wisdom in John Crosbie's critique of Williams' entire approach.
Kent will announce intentions after Hodder
Mount Pearl Mayor Steve Kent told VOCM news Tuesday evening that he has not ruled out running for Harvey Hodder's seat but he hasn't ruled it in either.
Kent said he will announce his intentions once Hodder announces what he will do.
And hey, people, while we labelled it as scuttlebutt, Kent's comments to VOCM suggest that he will be looking to replace Harv wearing the same colours.
Kent said he will announce his intentions once Hodder announces what he will do.
And hey, people, while we labelled it as scuttlebutt, Kent's comments to VOCM suggest that he will be looking to replace Harv wearing the same colours.
Scuttlebutt: Steve Kent to run for Tories in Waterford Valley
If the Mount Pearl rumour mill is right, Mount Pearl Mayor Steve Kent, recently seen on NTV's make-over show, will make himself over from a Liberal to a Danny Williams Tory for the next provincial election.
Kent will reportedly seek the Tory nod in Waterford Valley to replace Harvey Hodder, once Hodder announces he will be retiring from politics.
Kent's name was most recently floated as a possible Liberal candidate in the federal riding of St. John's South-Mount Pearl. Kent was courted by then Premier Brian Tobin to run in a federal by-election in the late 1990s and before that had been courted by the Reform/Alliance as a possible candidate.
Kent will reportedly seek the Tory nod in Waterford Valley to replace Harvey Hodder, once Hodder announces he will be retiring from politics.
Kent's name was most recently floated as a possible Liberal candidate in the federal riding of St. John's South-Mount Pearl. Kent was courted by then Premier Brian Tobin to run in a federal by-election in the late 1990s and before that had been courted by the Reform/Alliance as a possible candidate.
Killing them softly
While the next general election is set for October 2007, Danny Williams started asking his caucus last fall to make a decision on whether or not they would be running next time around.
According to some reports, Williams wanted to get new members in well before the election ostensibly so they could have some experience before the big game coming in the fall.
Every time he's been asked about a spring election by reporters, Williams made up some cock and bull story - which everyone swallowed - about having to call the House back to change the legislation. Sometimes he used another tale - again with bells on it - about not want to change everyone's expectation of a fall election and therefore catching the opposition parties short.
Truth is, Williams wasn't planning on having a snap election.
Nope.
The Premier understood its actually far more useful to wear the enemy down before the big contest. Rather than let them get ready for an election at a predicted time, better to use every power he has to have the opposition tied up with candidate selections, fund-raising and all the other things that go with elections for the better part of a year.
If the plan holds, both the Liberals and the New Democrats will be so shagged out by the fall, Danny will have an easy time no matter what.
And in the meantime, he can tell as many nosepullers as he feels like, knowing no one will challenge his story of the moment.
According to some reports, Williams wanted to get new members in well before the election ostensibly so they could have some experience before the big game coming in the fall.
Every time he's been asked about a spring election by reporters, Williams made up some cock and bull story - which everyone swallowed - about having to call the House back to change the legislation. Sometimes he used another tale - again with bells on it - about not want to change everyone's expectation of a fall election and therefore catching the opposition parties short.
Truth is, Williams wasn't planning on having a snap election.
Nope.
The Premier understood its actually far more useful to wear the enemy down before the big contest. Rather than let them get ready for an election at a predicted time, better to use every power he has to have the opposition tied up with candidate selections, fund-raising and all the other things that go with elections for the better part of a year.
If the plan holds, both the Liberals and the New Democrats will be so shagged out by the fall, Danny will have an easy time no matter what.
And in the meantime, he can tell as many nosepullers as he feels like, knowing no one will challenge his story of the moment.
22 January 2007
Danny's ideal candidate
How many hockey players will seek the Tory nomination in districts around the province this year?
Bond Papers wonders if Danny will be making approaches to the guy who would be his ideal candidate: Big Bobby Clobber. [ram file]
His ideas on negotiating would fit right in with current government policy.
Bond Papers wonders if Danny will be making approaches to the guy who would be his ideal candidate: Big Bobby Clobber. [ram file]
His ideas on negotiating would fit right in with current government policy.
Monday Morning Quickies
1. Equalization: the view from Hill Times. Nothing Earth-shaking, but the view from north of the Queensway.
2. The Sun apparently doesn't shine on Harper's plan. Saying the Harper proposal would soak places like Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador merely shows that the Sun chain can't read English. It's odd for a Conservative newspaper chain to support hand-outs for everyone.
2. The Sun apparently doesn't shine on Harper's plan. Saying the Harper proposal would soak places like Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador merely shows that the Sun chain can't read English. It's odd for a Conservative newspaper chain to support hand-outs for everyone.
21 January 2007
Local Tory claims need closer scrutiny, too
Imagine the shock there'd be at finding a column like this one from the Halifax Daily News in a Newfoundland and Labrador newspaper.
Word came this week that Newfoundland and Labrador's Equalization entitlement would be down this year by $150 million or so.
Danny pronounced the budget would have to be redone. Local media dutifully reported each of the Premier's utterances.
Now the reason for the cut is the same here as in Nova Scotia. Don't expect any local media to make a point of correcting Danny in public or private on this one:
So Newfoundland and Labrador's entitlement to hand-outs is going down for the same reason Nova Scotians are getting less.
No plots. No shafting.
No greater a drop than it ought to be given the phenomenal growth in the economy.
Just fair treatment and, at the root of it, something we should be proud of: we need less from the national welfare system.
Many of Williams' claims need closer scrutiny.
Often, what Danny says simply isn't true. It's is factually incorrect. Wrong, even.
Other times, there is an upside he won't discuss but the rest of us might find important.
Sometimes there's a downside.
And sometimes - a lot of the time - people would prefer to know that than to get, say mindlessly backing The Leader on his latest jihad or writing an editorial that sounds so saccharine that his Mom - or talk radio's Tony or Minnie - could have written it:
"Oh my gracious, it's amazing our wonderful Danny has been able to do all the marvelous stuff he's done for the good of all us poor people, what wit' all that miserable crowd he got to work with. Now they are leaving him and he got to clean up d'ere messes. Danny, our saviour."
We paraphrase, but capture, the essence of the piece.
Word came this week that Newfoundland and Labrador's Equalization entitlement would be down this year by $150 million or so.
Danny pronounced the budget would have to be redone. Local media dutifully reported each of the Premier's utterances.
Now the reason for the cut is the same here as in Nova Scotia. Don't expect any local media to make a point of correcting Danny in public or private on this one:
The short answer is, Nova Scotia's per-capita fiscal capacity went up. That is, our ability to pay our own way has grown, so we need less from the national welfare system.In Danny-stan, we were treated to claims like this one:
"On a per-capita basis, there's nobody, no other province that takes a hit like we take," said Williams.Despite Williams' best efforts, the oil sector is producing windfalls for his treasury. It will keep doing so for a few more years before - as Danny's former finance minister knew - we take a tumble. Of course, Danny won't be around when the tumble comes, but I digress.
The Tory premier said it would mean recalculating his province's budget.
So Newfoundland and Labrador's entitlement to hand-outs is going down for the same reason Nova Scotians are getting less.
No plots. No shafting.
No greater a drop than it ought to be given the phenomenal growth in the economy.
Just fair treatment and, at the root of it, something we should be proud of: we need less from the national welfare system.
Many of Williams' claims need closer scrutiny.
Often, what Danny says simply isn't true. It's is factually incorrect. Wrong, even.
Other times, there is an upside he won't discuss but the rest of us might find important.
Sometimes there's a downside.
And sometimes - a lot of the time - people would prefer to know that than to get, say mindlessly backing The Leader on his latest jihad or writing an editorial that sounds so saccharine that his Mom - or talk radio's Tony or Minnie - could have written it:
"Oh my gracious, it's amazing our wonderful Danny has been able to do all the marvelous stuff he's done for the good of all us poor people, what wit' all that miserable crowd he got to work with. Now they are leaving him and he got to clean up d'ere messes. Danny, our saviour."
We paraphrase, but capture, the essence of the piece.
20 January 2007
The People's Paper for Leader Worship
Bad enough that the editor of a weekly paper in the province once a week pens a mash-note to Danny based on nothing other than his school boy hero-crush on The Leader.
They used to be the "But Danny, I adore you, why do you hate me, why won't you speak to me?" love-rent teenager kinda drivel. Lately - now that Danny will advertise in the paper and grant interviews - it's back to the public orations in honour of The Leader Who Gloriously Slayed the Mighty Ottawa Beast and Who Will Now Smite the Oil Bastards And Anyone Else Who Would Dare Oppress His Loyal Supplicants.
It's the sort of stuff you used to see pumped out by second-rate lute pickers. They'd chase after some knight, knocking off ditties to tell the local peasants and pissants how splendiferous their local demigod supposedly was. They did it all in hopes the leige lord might deign to give the lowly minstrels a meal, a mug of warm beer and a place sleep out of the elements.
Expect the upstart weekly to be up and starting a province-wide collection to build a gold statute to The Leader in front of their offices on Water Street. Pensioners and little children can send in their nickels. The rest can cough up big for the monument.
The only potential design problem will be to see who goes up The Leader's backside, and how far. Competition for the spot is at a state not seen even in Joe Smallwood's day. Heck some are even heading back out into the parking lot so they can get a good run at embedding themselves.
Perhaps they'll the potentate route and just design the statute with an oversized pair of cheeks, set at eye level. All the more area for osculating.
Or maybe like worshippers at some shrine in wherever-a-stan, the serfs can dutifully kiss the cheek as they go about their daily work. There you stroke the lingham for blessing. Here you'd buss the tukus to demonstrate loyalty and devotion.
All that is bad enough, but now the Telegram is starting in on the public fellation, as well.
Credit where credit is due. A needle poke when appropriate as well.
But puhleese: "It’s a tribute to Williams that his Conservatives are still doing so well in this province — and that they’ve managed to stick, for the most part, to their election agenda in the process."
No serving politician deserves that kind of derriere-smooch, especially since it simply isn't true.
The Telly has been doing such a fine job of getting its editorial chops back. This paean to the prem is a marked setback.
Did the boys in layout print Bill Rowe's column in the wrong spot?
Is this another editorial ordered up from the corner office?
It just makes you shrug in despair of thoughtful commentary in what once upon a time used to be a bastion of contrariness.
They used to be the "But Danny, I adore you, why do you hate me, why won't you speak to me?" love-rent teenager kinda drivel. Lately - now that Danny will advertise in the paper and grant interviews - it's back to the public orations in honour of The Leader Who Gloriously Slayed the Mighty Ottawa Beast and Who Will Now Smite the Oil Bastards And Anyone Else Who Would Dare Oppress His Loyal Supplicants.
It's the sort of stuff you used to see pumped out by second-rate lute pickers. They'd chase after some knight, knocking off ditties to tell the local peasants and pissants how splendiferous their local demigod supposedly was. They did it all in hopes the leige lord might deign to give the lowly minstrels a meal, a mug of warm beer and a place sleep out of the elements.
Expect the upstart weekly to be up and starting a province-wide collection to build a gold statute to The Leader in front of their offices on Water Street. Pensioners and little children can send in their nickels. The rest can cough up big for the monument.
The only potential design problem will be to see who goes up The Leader's backside, and how far. Competition for the spot is at a state not seen even in Joe Smallwood's day. Heck some are even heading back out into the parking lot so they can get a good run at embedding themselves.
Perhaps they'll the potentate route and just design the statute with an oversized pair of cheeks, set at eye level. All the more area for osculating.
Or maybe like worshippers at some shrine in wherever-a-stan, the serfs can dutifully kiss the cheek as they go about their daily work. There you stroke the lingham for blessing. Here you'd buss the tukus to demonstrate loyalty and devotion.
All that is bad enough, but now the Telegram is starting in on the public fellation, as well.
Credit where credit is due. A needle poke when appropriate as well.
But puhleese: "It’s a tribute to Williams that his Conservatives are still doing so well in this province — and that they’ve managed to stick, for the most part, to their election agenda in the process."
No serving politician deserves that kind of derriere-smooch, especially since it simply isn't true.
The Telly has been doing such a fine job of getting its editorial chops back. This paean to the prem is a marked setback.
Did the boys in layout print Bill Rowe's column in the wrong spot?
Is this another editorial ordered up from the corner office?
It just makes you shrug in despair of thoughtful commentary in what once upon a time used to be a bastion of contrariness.
19 January 2007
Will Danny kill Husky's expansion too?
When Premier Danny Williams killed plans to develop a 300 million barrel oil field within the Hibernia project, some wondered what might become of Husky Energy's plans to bring an additional 25 million barrels on stream from its White Rose field.
The development plan amendment containing the new project could be taken by some - like St. John's Mayor Andy Wells and Premier Danny Williams - as an excuse to force Husky and Petro-Canada to negotiate new local benefits.
Wells has long been a critic of floating production systems, favouring instead the short-term jobs that would come from expensive gravity-based concrete platforms. So-called GBS platforms would be unnecessary to develop fields like Terra Nova and White Rose on a successful commercial basis, but were an integral part of the make-work approach some within the Peckford administration took to oil and gas development 25 years ago.
An excellent backgrounder can be found at The Telegram, courtesy of Moira Baird.
Public consultation documents on the White Rose development plan amendment can be found at the offshore regulatory board's website.
The development plan amendment containing the new project could be taken by some - like St. John's Mayor Andy Wells and Premier Danny Williams - as an excuse to force Husky and Petro-Canada to negotiate new local benefits.
Wells has long been a critic of floating production systems, favouring instead the short-term jobs that would come from expensive gravity-based concrete platforms. So-called GBS platforms would be unnecessary to develop fields like Terra Nova and White Rose on a successful commercial basis, but were an integral part of the make-work approach some within the Peckford administration took to oil and gas development 25 years ago.
An excellent backgrounder can be found at The Telegram, courtesy of Moira Baird.
Public consultation documents on the White Rose development plan amendment can be found at the offshore regulatory board's website.
Williams' actions brand Canada badly?
Deborah Yedlin's column in the Globe and Mail business section Friday contain some observations on Danny Williams' rejection of a 300 million barrel oil project off the province's coast.
Some of the comments, especially the one about Loyola Sullivan, will be familiar to Bond readers.
Among other comments though there are ones like this:
Some of the comments, especially the one about Loyola Sullivan, will be familiar to Bond readers.
Among other comments though there are ones like this:
Energy companies around the world -- particularly those that are publicly traded and not national oil companies -- are challenged to invest capital and replace current production. And if they can do it in politically stable countries where there is a rule of law that can be relied on, so much the better. That's why they come to Canada.or this:
Because of what's at stake, they are unlikely to hold back on providing as much information as possible to decision makers in order to win the necessary approvals. The folks running The Rock don't seem to get it. Instead they persist in playing hardball.
With all this as backdrop, is it such a coincidence that the government's well-respected finance minister resigned some two weeks ago? The Newfoundland government now has to live with the likelihood that the companies that have been turned down twice are going to have a tough time giving Newfoundland a thumbs-up if others in the business ask whether it's a province that is friendly to investors.Many will reject Yedlin's comments out of hand, especially those who find it difficult to question Williams at all on anything. A few out there will see the larger implications of this week's gambit by the man who thinks it immensely flattering to be compared to Venezuela's Hugo Chavez.
Pull the other one, Kathy.
Fresh from killing a multi-million barrel oil project worth billions to the provincial treasury, natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale today applauded her cabinet colleague the environment minister for approving a planned liquid natural gas terminal despite missing information.
The proponents of the project can take all the time they need to submit an employment equity plan, a risk assessment study (!!), and an environmental protection plan before starting construction.
Surely an environment minister doing a due diligence piece (to use Dunderdale's favourite bit of bureaucratese) would want to be assured there were no environmental risks associated with such a massive project before giving it the green light?
And double surely, the same duly diligent minister would want to see the environmental protection plan before telling the proponents their project was released from environmental review?
The proponents of the project can take all the time they need to submit an employment equity plan, a risk assessment study (!!), and an environmental protection plan before starting construction.
Surely an environment minister doing a due diligence piece (to use Dunderdale's favourite bit of bureaucratese) would want to be assured there were no environmental risks associated with such a massive project before giving it the green light?
And double surely, the same duly diligent minister would want to see the environmental protection plan before telling the proponents their project was released from environmental review?
Goudie checks out
Kathy Goudie, one of two Conservative members of the House of Assembly accused of double-billing for expenses has quit politics, effective immediately.
The Premier wasted no time in calling the by-election for February 12. News of one followed hot on the heels of the other.
Guess the rumours are true about him wanting her to go and go quickly.
The Premier wasted no time in calling the by-election for February 12. News of one followed hot on the heels of the other.
Guess the rumours are true about him wanting her to go and go quickly.
Cabinet shuffle at 11:00 AM
Let's see if Jerome Kennedy is appointed.
Bond Papers first raised the idea on December 29.
Jerome denied it, but then your humble e-scribbler clarified the point.
Update [1230 hrs]:
No Jerome.
A few people were moved around Shawn Skinner and Ross Wiseman were added to cabinet as, respectively the minister of human resources and health minister.
Tom Osborne moved from Health to Justice, while Tom Rideout [right:The province's new chief prosecutor] takes on the job of Attorney General in addition to his others jobs.
Paul Shelley announced his retirement from politics when the legislature is next dissolved for an election. In the way this sort of retirement would normally be handled, he was simply sent to the back benches, no harm, no foul. Note the difference between Shelley and Loyola Sullivan despite the apparent similarity in their situations and stories.
On the face of it, this is a minor shuffle to address the consequences of Sullivan's resignation. It certainly doesn't look like the sort of re-organization one might expect in advance of an election.
That shuffle - if it comes at all - will come after the budget, most likely.
Bond Papers first raised the idea on December 29.
Jerome denied it, but then your humble e-scribbler clarified the point.
Update [1230 hrs]:
No Jerome.
A few people were moved around Shawn Skinner and Ross Wiseman were added to cabinet as, respectively the minister of human resources and health minister.
Tom Osborne moved from Health to Justice, while Tom Rideout [right:The province's new chief prosecutor] takes on the job of Attorney General in addition to his others jobs.Paul Shelley announced his retirement from politics when the legislature is next dissolved for an election. In the way this sort of retirement would normally be handled, he was simply sent to the back benches, no harm, no foul. Note the difference between Shelley and Loyola Sullivan despite the apparent similarity in their situations and stories.
On the face of it, this is a minor shuffle to address the consequences of Sullivan's resignation. It certainly doesn't look like the sort of re-organization one might expect in advance of an election.
That shuffle - if it comes at all - will come after the budget, most likely.
Williams to Ottawa: More handouts please
There's something fundamentally wrong about any politician who is proud of walking away from billions in economic development (Hebron), applauds an incompetent minister who neglected to act on a major economic opportunity until after a decision was made and then cancelled the project altogether, but who focuses instead on getting more hand-outs from Ottawa.
Danny Williams is the first premier in Newfoundland and Labrador history who preferred increasing the provincial government's dependence on Ottawa in lieu of economic self-reliance.
Danny Williams' sole victory to date - by his own calculation - was in securing a $2.0 billion hand-out from Paul Martin.
Bond Papers discussed this already, in a post titled "Haec tibi dona fero". For those who don't know, the phrase is the motto taken from the old badge of Newfoundland. Before someone discovered the provincial government had right to the current coat of arms (originally granted in the 1620s), the official flag of Newfoundland was a red ensign with the Badge in the fly.
Translated, it means: "We bring you these gifts."
Danny Williams is the first premier in Newfoundland and Labrador history who preferred increasing the provincial government's dependence on Ottawa in lieu of economic self-reliance.
Danny Williams' sole victory to date - by his own calculation - was in securing a $2.0 billion hand-out from Paul Martin.
Bond Papers discussed this already, in a post titled "Haec tibi dona fero". For those who don't know, the phrase is the motto taken from the old badge of Newfoundland. Before someone discovered the provincial government had right to the current coat of arms (originally granted in the 1620s), the official flag of Newfoundland was a red ensign with the Badge in the fly.
Translated, it means: "We bring you these gifts."
18 January 2007
The cost of blunder and folly
For the first time in history, the provincial government has overturned a fundamental decision of the province's offshore regulatory board.
That's because for the first time in history, the provincial government failed to discuss important issues with oil companies before a project went to the board for decision.
Since the 1980s, every single provincial government - Progressive Conservative and Liberal alike - has negotiated with the oil companies on royalties and benefits. If there were questions or concerns they were raised at the outset and resolved.
Except, that is, in the recent case of Hibernia South.
And Newfoundlanders and Labradorians should wonder why.
In truth, there's no logical reason for it.
The provincial government was aware at least a year ago that the Hibernia partners were planning to develop the 300 million barrels in the southern extension of the massive Hibernia field. In her letter to the offshore board rejecting their decision, natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale acknowledged that government knew a project was under consideration. She saw the expressions of interest calls for work related to the project. Officials in her department knew what everyone else in the oil industry locally knew.
Yet at no point until December 2006 - fully six months after public consultations closed on the development application - did Dunderdale go looking for information.
The result is that the Hibernia South project is shelved with no indication when it might come back for re-consideration. Provincial officials will meet with Hibernia representatives before the end of January. Maybe the provincial government can resolve its concerns.
Most likely it won't. Premier Danny Williams long ago declared his interest in seeing Hibernia South treated as a new project, separate from Hibernia. He wanted a new royalty and benefits deal, a new production platform and whatever else could be squeezed out of it.
Williams' negotiating track record is abysmal, at least when it comes to closing a deal. He's been all fight and no win, as one wag put it. Part of the problem is that he seems unwilling or unable to define his objectives. It's hard to know when you reach a goal if you don't know what the goal is. In interviews over the past two days both Williams and his natural resources minister haven't been able to give any indication of what their objectives are beyond vague platitudes.
Both Williams and Dunderdale did dangle the carrot of more work and jobs in front of the president of the offshore industry association and in front of the general public. Some fell for it, out of pollyannaish optimism as much as anything else.
But many fell for the simple palaver - experienced reporters included - because of what the y don't know and Premier is loathe to discuss: the potential cost of his gamble on a new production platform, even if the companies were willing to go along with his plans.
The cost would be - inevitably - reduced royalties for the provincial treasury. As with every project offshore, the companies would expect and would likely receive agreement that the province's royalties would be about 5% until the costs of development were recovered. In a project like Terra Nova, low costs and high oil prices allowed that project to pay off early. As a result, the provincial government receives 30% of the price of every barrel pumped.
On Hibernia, that same target is within sight. By 2011 - if current projections hold - the province will get those higher royalties. Those higher royalties will apply to at least half of the recoverable reserves, including Hibernia South, which the Premier rightly noted is now estimated to hold about 1.9 million barrels of proven, probable and possible reserves. Hibernia - with more oil than the other producing fields combined - could pump more cash into the province treasury after 2011 than anyone ever imagined.
Treat Hibernia South as some sort of new project - even by negotiating a new set of royalties and benefits in the context of the original development agreement - and that higher royalty target will likely slide back significantly. Someone will have to pay for the extras demanded solely by a politician's whims and that someone will be taxpayers.
Beyond that, though, the little game of chicken the Premier is playing sends a very bad message to the oil industry globally and to businesses generally. What they see is a place where the costs of doing business are completely undefined. In a world where there is far more oil to discover and develop than there is capital to develop it, competition is high. Uncertainty discourages investment. In Danny Williams' case, the potential costs can't even be guessed at. His demands are not only a constantly shifting target, the outermost edges of the target screen itself can't even be seen. Money doesn't get spent in places like that.
Now, on top of that, for companies looking to develop existing fields, there is the added likelihood that at the very end of the already long regulatory process, the provincial government will suddenly reset the clock to zero and start the whole thing over again.
The Premier's actions have costs that can be readily seen. In the short- and medium- term , the oil industry isn't investing locally, certainly not at the levels we'd expected. House prices are slumping and over the next year and more, the economy in St. John's will contract. Even locally-owned supply and service companies have scaled back their local investments since they have no idea when a new project might actually be approved. Optimism a year ago is replaced with caution and skepticism today.
.JPG)
In the medium to long term, there are other costs. Provincial government forecasts show that without Hebron and more production at Hibernia, oil revenues will drop suddenly before climbing back up. But after that, there's a pretty rapid drop-off, as Wade Locke's estimate [left] shows.
The longer Hebron sits in the ground, the long Hibernia South remains undeveloped, the more money the provincial treasury loses. Sometimes you don't need to make a deal to make a giveaway.
Interestingly enough, that's what Loyola Sullivan talked about just before his Christmas resignation. Sullivan told vocm.com that it is very important for the province to see orderly development of its offshore industry. He said there will be three years of good revenues but after that, the money drops off.
Sullivan's right.
Too bad his wise words were drowned out by his resignation the same day those comments were published. Too bad that Sullivan's colleagues didn't heed his good advice.
Instead, we had an unconscionable, let alone unfathomable failure by a government that can ill afford political mistakes in a province that - in a few short years - will be hard pressed to pay the bills for blunder and folly in 2006 and early 2007.
That's because for the first time in history, the provincial government failed to discuss important issues with oil companies before a project went to the board for decision.
Since the 1980s, every single provincial government - Progressive Conservative and Liberal alike - has negotiated with the oil companies on royalties and benefits. If there were questions or concerns they were raised at the outset and resolved.
Except, that is, in the recent case of Hibernia South.
And Newfoundlanders and Labradorians should wonder why.
In truth, there's no logical reason for it.
The provincial government was aware at least a year ago that the Hibernia partners were planning to develop the 300 million barrels in the southern extension of the massive Hibernia field. In her letter to the offshore board rejecting their decision, natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale acknowledged that government knew a project was under consideration. She saw the expressions of interest calls for work related to the project. Officials in her department knew what everyone else in the oil industry locally knew.
Yet at no point until December 2006 - fully six months after public consultations closed on the development application - did Dunderdale go looking for information.
The result is that the Hibernia South project is shelved with no indication when it might come back for re-consideration. Provincial officials will meet with Hibernia representatives before the end of January. Maybe the provincial government can resolve its concerns.
Most likely it won't. Premier Danny Williams long ago declared his interest in seeing Hibernia South treated as a new project, separate from Hibernia. He wanted a new royalty and benefits deal, a new production platform and whatever else could be squeezed out of it.
Williams' negotiating track record is abysmal, at least when it comes to closing a deal. He's been all fight and no win, as one wag put it. Part of the problem is that he seems unwilling or unable to define his objectives. It's hard to know when you reach a goal if you don't know what the goal is. In interviews over the past two days both Williams and his natural resources minister haven't been able to give any indication of what their objectives are beyond vague platitudes.
Both Williams and Dunderdale did dangle the carrot of more work and jobs in front of the president of the offshore industry association and in front of the general public. Some fell for it, out of pollyannaish optimism as much as anything else.
But many fell for the simple palaver - experienced reporters included - because of what the y don't know and Premier is loathe to discuss: the potential cost of his gamble on a new production platform, even if the companies were willing to go along with his plans.
The cost would be - inevitably - reduced royalties for the provincial treasury. As with every project offshore, the companies would expect and would likely receive agreement that the province's royalties would be about 5% until the costs of development were recovered. In a project like Terra Nova, low costs and high oil prices allowed that project to pay off early. As a result, the provincial government receives 30% of the price of every barrel pumped.
On Hibernia, that same target is within sight. By 2011 - if current projections hold - the province will get those higher royalties. Those higher royalties will apply to at least half of the recoverable reserves, including Hibernia South, which the Premier rightly noted is now estimated to hold about 1.9 million barrels of proven, probable and possible reserves. Hibernia - with more oil than the other producing fields combined - could pump more cash into the province treasury after 2011 than anyone ever imagined.
Treat Hibernia South as some sort of new project - even by negotiating a new set of royalties and benefits in the context of the original development agreement - and that higher royalty target will likely slide back significantly. Someone will have to pay for the extras demanded solely by a politician's whims and that someone will be taxpayers.
Beyond that, though, the little game of chicken the Premier is playing sends a very bad message to the oil industry globally and to businesses generally. What they see is a place where the costs of doing business are completely undefined. In a world where there is far more oil to discover and develop than there is capital to develop it, competition is high. Uncertainty discourages investment. In Danny Williams' case, the potential costs can't even be guessed at. His demands are not only a constantly shifting target, the outermost edges of the target screen itself can't even be seen. Money doesn't get spent in places like that.
Now, on top of that, for companies looking to develop existing fields, there is the added likelihood that at the very end of the already long regulatory process, the provincial government will suddenly reset the clock to zero and start the whole thing over again.
The Premier's actions have costs that can be readily seen. In the short- and medium- term , the oil industry isn't investing locally, certainly not at the levels we'd expected. House prices are slumping and over the next year and more, the economy in St. John's will contract. Even locally-owned supply and service companies have scaled back their local investments since they have no idea when a new project might actually be approved. Optimism a year ago is replaced with caution and skepticism today.
.JPG)
In the medium to long term, there are other costs. Provincial government forecasts show that without Hebron and more production at Hibernia, oil revenues will drop suddenly before climbing back up. But after that, there's a pretty rapid drop-off, as Wade Locke's estimate [left] shows.The longer Hebron sits in the ground, the long Hibernia South remains undeveloped, the more money the provincial treasury loses. Sometimes you don't need to make a deal to make a giveaway.
Interestingly enough, that's what Loyola Sullivan talked about just before his Christmas resignation. Sullivan told vocm.com that it is very important for the province to see orderly development of its offshore industry. He said there will be three years of good revenues but after that, the money drops off.
Sullivan's right.
Too bad his wise words were drowned out by his resignation the same day those comments were published. Too bad that Sullivan's colleagues didn't heed his good advice.
Instead, we had an unconscionable, let alone unfathomable failure by a government that can ill afford political mistakes in a province that - in a few short years - will be hard pressed to pay the bills for blunder and folly in 2006 and early 2007.
17 January 2007
Lab West mine deal: Did Danny screw the chances?
Consolidated Thompson announced on Tuesday that its exclusivity agreement with Wabush Mines had expired and no agreement had been reached on the sale of Wabush Mines.
CT is developing a mine in Quebec, close to the Labrador border and reportedly had been examining a possible consolidation of the two operations.
CT's announcement on Tuesday was a surprise to most people in Labrador West. The company said that, among other things, unexpected - and unspecified - liabilities had nixed the possibility of the deal. CT will now proceed with its development at Bloom Lake in Quebec.
In a teleconference Wednesday with investors and news media, board chairman Brian Tobin wouldn't be any more specific about liabilities issue or other reasons why CT had abandoned its plans for Wabush Mines.
Well here's a theory.
Unexpected liabilities = unforeseen costs.
Unforeseen costs? Maybe not unforeseen so much as "we couldn't cut a deal."
Consider that Wabush Mines and Iron Ore Company of Canada are co-owners, along with Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro of a little outfit called Twin Falls Hydroelectric Corporation. The Twin Falls generating station was built in the 1950s to meet the power needs of the two companys operations in Labrador West.
Hydro's shares used to belong to BRINCO and were acquired along with other BRINCO assets in the 1970s. Anyway, IOC and Wabush Mines agreed to mothball the Twin Falls generating plant to ensure that it wouldn't interfere with the adjacent Upper Churchill development.
Part of the deal, struck after long and difficult negotiations, was that IOC - and presumably Wabush - would have access to a block of power at low prices from the Upper Churchill as a trade for shutting down Twin Falls. After all, had the companies continued to operate their own generating plants, they'd have electricity available for the cost of maintaining the plant.
Enter Danny Williams.
In early October, the fiesty Premier warned Iron Ore Company of Canada - owners of the other mine in Labrador West - that they could expect to pay commercial rates for electricity once the current agreement ended. Williams likened the IOC/Wabush Mines power purchase deal to the Hydro Quebec giveaway on the Upper Churchill presumably knowing full-well that his comparison and the truth were two completely different things.
Presumably the same thing applied to Wabush Mines. You can imagine the talk: Forget the low cost power, boys, sez Danny. No more give aways. Maximum benefits to the province or take a hike.
And since Williams had flatly rejected a power deal in public, there was no way he would back down.
About a month later, Consolidated Thompson signed the exclusivity agreement with Wabush Mines. It wouldn't be too much of a stretch for the company to have figured that Danny's old buddy Brian Tobin could cut a deal on power, former Prem to current Prem. But after a few months of wrangling, in which the current Prem was likely a little more dyspeptic than usual, they just couldn't get Danny to a fair deal, namely ensuring the company could expect low cost power to flow just as it would have if they'd told BRINCO to shove off back in the 1960s.
By January, CT decides to head across the border, focus on Bloom Lake and talk to a much friendlier government in Quebec. Jean Charest and his Hydro Quebec team would certainly be willing to supply low-cost power from their own existing operations or from their new projects, like the Romaine.
Now this is a little bit of creative speculation, and there's no way either Brian or Danny will ever say just exactly what did happen. But the story is plausible. If Danny added all sorts of demands for costs on top of his electricity pricing, he might just have priced the whole deal right off the table.
And Danny is good at talking good deals right out the door with his Bela Oxmyx impersonation.
Just ask the local companies who had planned on Hebron work.
or Hibernia South work.
or White Rose expansion work.
Oops.
That last one hasn't been killed yet.
Still, it does give you something to think about.
______________________
Update [19 Jan 07]:
Speculation is fun.
But with any large industrial project like a mine, there are always environmental liabilities and with mines in operation for any length of time there are big ones.
The Consolidated Thompson decision is most likely based on an overall assessment of the downstream implications of buying the existing Wabush Mines based on - as the company - said - the liabilities, both known and unknown or unexpected.
Discussions with the provincial government about electricity may never have taken place. We don't know and likely neither party would be able to discuss them if they did.
That said, CT will still have to look at issues about their Bloom Lake site such as how to get the ore to market once it's been mined. That may have some implications for Labrador West. Let's hope the provincial natural resources department doesn't let that one go sliding by until - as with Hibernia - they wait until a decision is made to go looking for information they should have sought long beforehand.
CT is developing a mine in Quebec, close to the Labrador border and reportedly had been examining a possible consolidation of the two operations.
CT's announcement on Tuesday was a surprise to most people in Labrador West. The company said that, among other things, unexpected - and unspecified - liabilities had nixed the possibility of the deal. CT will now proceed with its development at Bloom Lake in Quebec.
In a teleconference Wednesday with investors and news media, board chairman Brian Tobin wouldn't be any more specific about liabilities issue or other reasons why CT had abandoned its plans for Wabush Mines.
Well here's a theory.
Unexpected liabilities = unforeseen costs.
Unforeseen costs? Maybe not unforeseen so much as "we couldn't cut a deal."
Consider that Wabush Mines and Iron Ore Company of Canada are co-owners, along with Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro of a little outfit called Twin Falls Hydroelectric Corporation. The Twin Falls generating station was built in the 1950s to meet the power needs of the two companys operations in Labrador West.
Hydro's shares used to belong to BRINCO and were acquired along with other BRINCO assets in the 1970s. Anyway, IOC and Wabush Mines agreed to mothball the Twin Falls generating plant to ensure that it wouldn't interfere with the adjacent Upper Churchill development.
Part of the deal, struck after long and difficult negotiations, was that IOC - and presumably Wabush - would have access to a block of power at low prices from the Upper Churchill as a trade for shutting down Twin Falls. After all, had the companies continued to operate their own generating plants, they'd have electricity available for the cost of maintaining the plant.
Enter Danny Williams.
In early October, the fiesty Premier warned Iron Ore Company of Canada - owners of the other mine in Labrador West - that they could expect to pay commercial rates for electricity once the current agreement ended. Williams likened the IOC/Wabush Mines power purchase deal to the Hydro Quebec giveaway on the Upper Churchill presumably knowing full-well that his comparison and the truth were two completely different things.
Presumably the same thing applied to Wabush Mines. You can imagine the talk: Forget the low cost power, boys, sez Danny. No more give aways. Maximum benefits to the province or take a hike.
And since Williams had flatly rejected a power deal in public, there was no way he would back down.
About a month later, Consolidated Thompson signed the exclusivity agreement with Wabush Mines. It wouldn't be too much of a stretch for the company to have figured that Danny's old buddy Brian Tobin could cut a deal on power, former Prem to current Prem. But after a few months of wrangling, in which the current Prem was likely a little more dyspeptic than usual, they just couldn't get Danny to a fair deal, namely ensuring the company could expect low cost power to flow just as it would have if they'd told BRINCO to shove off back in the 1960s.
By January, CT decides to head across the border, focus on Bloom Lake and talk to a much friendlier government in Quebec. Jean Charest and his Hydro Quebec team would certainly be willing to supply low-cost power from their own existing operations or from their new projects, like the Romaine.
Now this is a little bit of creative speculation, and there's no way either Brian or Danny will ever say just exactly what did happen. But the story is plausible. If Danny added all sorts of demands for costs on top of his electricity pricing, he might just have priced the whole deal right off the table.
And Danny is good at talking good deals right out the door with his Bela Oxmyx impersonation.
Just ask the local companies who had planned on Hebron work.
or Hibernia South work.
or White Rose expansion work.
Oops.
That last one hasn't been killed yet.
Still, it does give you something to think about.
______________________
Update [19 Jan 07]:
Speculation is fun.
But with any large industrial project like a mine, there are always environmental liabilities and with mines in operation for any length of time there are big ones.
The Consolidated Thompson decision is most likely based on an overall assessment of the downstream implications of buying the existing Wabush Mines based on - as the company - said - the liabilities, both known and unknown or unexpected.
Discussions with the provincial government about electricity may never have taken place. We don't know and likely neither party would be able to discuss them if they did.
That said, CT will still have to look at issues about their Bloom Lake site such as how to get the ore to market once it's been mined. That may have some implications for Labrador West. Let's hope the provincial natural resources department doesn't let that one go sliding by until - as with Hibernia - they wait until a decision is made to go looking for information they should have sought long beforehand.
By-election date set
Voters in Kilbride, Ferryland and Port au Port will go to the polls February 8.
That just about clinches it that the province won't be seeing an early election this year.
Interestingly enough, Chief Justice Derek Green is due to release his report on the House of Assembly scandal on January 31. Will the Premier release it right away?
That just about clinches it that the province won't be seeing an early election this year.
Interestingly enough, Chief Justice Derek Green is due to release his report on the House of Assembly scandal on January 31. Will the Premier release it right away?
Predictable but still disheartening
With the stunning success of the Hebron shag-up under his belt, Danny Williams decided to shelve the Hibernia South development application.
The news was delivered by his shadow natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale.
More to follow.
The news was delivered by his shadow natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale.
More to follow.
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