Operators of the Hibernia production platform are doing a scheduled maintenance now, instead of seven months from now when it was originally the planned.
Industry insiders have known for some time that the operators moved up the planned maintenance in the wake of a generator malfunction in January. The decision pre-dates the province's rejection of an application to develop Hibernia South.
Production is expected to be 110,000 barrels per day, down from the 220,000 barrels per day at peak.
07 February 2007
A family of talent
Mike Herriott's back in town to play a gig.
He truly is a talented trumpet player who has made a name for himself internationally. Your humble e-scribbler played in a band with Mike more than a few years ago. Mike was one of several talented trumpet guys - talented to the point of being intimidating; talented to the point of generating a bunch of ongoing "mine is bigger" kinda healthy competition - so it's no surprise that each them has gone on to acclaim in the musical realm.
Mike comes from a talented family, too. His brother Richard is an accomplished pianist.
Another brother - Chuck - is an exceptionally creative local actor.
He truly is a talented trumpet player who has made a name for himself internationally. Your humble e-scribbler played in a band with Mike more than a few years ago. Mike was one of several talented trumpet guys - talented to the point of being intimidating; talented to the point of generating a bunch of ongoing "mine is bigger" kinda healthy competition - so it's no surprise that each them has gone on to acclaim in the musical realm.
Mike comes from a talented family, too. His brother Richard is an accomplished pianist.
Another brother - Chuck - is an exceptionally creative local actor.
Lower Churchill timelines slide back
Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Danny Williams announced on Tuesday that the province's hydro corporation had filed applications to transmit electricity through New Brunswick to unspecified markets.
In a media scrum, Williams said there were currently no talks under way on power purchase agreements since negotiations couldn't occur until costs were known. Tuesday's announcement was part of the process of gathering information on costs.
Williams also told reporters the provincial government would consider deferring revenue on the so-called Maritime route (Labrador via Newfoundland to Prince Edward Island). Deferring revenue is code for selling power at a loss.
The feisty Premier claimed the New Brunswick application is part of a plan to deal with a situation in which Quebec would supposedly try to keep Lower Churchill power from markets by loading its grid with energy generated by Hydro Quebec.
Williams knows this argument is a complete fiction since the joint Quebec/Ontario proposal on the Lower Churchill - flatly rejected by Williams - included upgrades to the Quebec grid and to the Quebec-Ontario interconnection. The limitations of Quebec's existing grid are well known and Hydro Quebec is already working on upgrades to the system's capacity.
The go-it-alone option now being pursued by Williams means that Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro may now have to eat the costs of grid upgrades in Quebec and will certainly bear the cost of the underwater cabling to use the Maritime route. The cheapest estimate for the Maritime route would add an additional $1.5 to $2.0 billion to the project cost.
Taken altogether, Williams announcement on Tuesday would likely slide the project time lines back by upwards of two years. Project sanction - which some assumed meant construction startup - might be achieved in 2009 but that would simply mean approval to start negotiating power purchase agreements. Construction would start - if it started at all - only after those deals were closed and financing arranged.
Plans to sell Upper Churchill power to New York fell apart in the 1960s since the costs of transmission from Labrador could never be brought in line with market prices.
The Lower Churchill project is currently estimated to cost upwards of $9.0 billion, or 75% of the total provincial debt load. An additional $9.0 billion of public debt - especially if power is sold at a loss - would bring the provincial debt to almost $20 billion.
That figure may be tough for financial markets to bear given the current gross domestic product is running at less than $25 billion. Newfoundland and Labrador's debt to GDP ratio at that point would be one of the worst in the developed world. Cancellation of major oil projects, like Hebron and Hibernia South, will prevent anticipated growth in the provincial economy that might have otherwise offset the financial problems or given cash that would have covered some of the Lower Churchill's costs.
In a media scrum, Williams said there were currently no talks under way on power purchase agreements since negotiations couldn't occur until costs were known. Tuesday's announcement was part of the process of gathering information on costs.
Williams also told reporters the provincial government would consider deferring revenue on the so-called Maritime route (Labrador via Newfoundland to Prince Edward Island). Deferring revenue is code for selling power at a loss.
The feisty Premier claimed the New Brunswick application is part of a plan to deal with a situation in which Quebec would supposedly try to keep Lower Churchill power from markets by loading its grid with energy generated by Hydro Quebec.
Williams knows this argument is a complete fiction since the joint Quebec/Ontario proposal on the Lower Churchill - flatly rejected by Williams - included upgrades to the Quebec grid and to the Quebec-Ontario interconnection. The limitations of Quebec's existing grid are well known and Hydro Quebec is already working on upgrades to the system's capacity.
The go-it-alone option now being pursued by Williams means that Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro may now have to eat the costs of grid upgrades in Quebec and will certainly bear the cost of the underwater cabling to use the Maritime route. The cheapest estimate for the Maritime route would add an additional $1.5 to $2.0 billion to the project cost.
Taken altogether, Williams announcement on Tuesday would likely slide the project time lines back by upwards of two years. Project sanction - which some assumed meant construction startup - might be achieved in 2009 but that would simply mean approval to start negotiating power purchase agreements. Construction would start - if it started at all - only after those deals were closed and financing arranged.
Plans to sell Upper Churchill power to New York fell apart in the 1960s since the costs of transmission from Labrador could never be brought in line with market prices.
The Lower Churchill project is currently estimated to cost upwards of $9.0 billion, or 75% of the total provincial debt load. An additional $9.0 billion of public debt - especially if power is sold at a loss - would bring the provincial debt to almost $20 billion.
That figure may be tough for financial markets to bear given the current gross domestic product is running at less than $25 billion. Newfoundland and Labrador's debt to GDP ratio at that point would be one of the worst in the developed world. Cancellation of major oil projects, like Hebron and Hibernia South, will prevent anticipated growth in the provincial economy that might have otherwise offset the financial problems or given cash that would have covered some of the Lower Churchill's costs.
06 February 2007
Energy plan delayed...again
Premier Danny Williams told a VOCM audience this evening the energy plan - 10 years in the making - will be delayed until spring, at the earliest.
He said the gas royalty regime will likely be split off from the plan and announced separately.
In the wake of the Hebron failure, Premier Danny Williams said the gas royalty regime - which at that time had to be included in the energy plan would be released, along with the energy plan, in late 2006.
Times change.
The energy plan - dating from the late 1990s when Brian Tobin was Premier - has languished inside the energy department ever since.
He said the gas royalty regime will likely be split off from the plan and announced separately.
In the wake of the Hebron failure, Premier Danny Williams said the gas royalty regime - which at that time had to be included in the energy plan would be released, along with the energy plan, in late 2006.
Times change.
The energy plan - dating from the late 1990s when Brian Tobin was Premier - has languished inside the energy department ever since.
Plunkin' it at City Hall
Danny Williams says he doesn't take a salary.
He does, of course.
Williams donates the whole thing to his family charity.
Since the mid-1990s, members of the House of Assembly [right: Not exactly as illustrated] have quietly adopted the same practice. They take a portion of the allowances established to cover the costs of operating a constituency office and of representing their districts and hand them out to a variety of groups and individuals.
There is something fundamentally - ethically - wrong with elected officials using public money, directly or indirectly, in this way.
It doesn't take a rule book or a judge to let you know it is...wrong.
Should we be surprised in the current political climate that at least one councilor at St. John's Tammany City Hall [left] does the same thing with his annual salary of about $35,000?
As cbc.ca notes in a story on a recent racket about budget cuts,
The ward.
Money goes back to the ward.
Looks like Bond Papers had it right in 2005.
He does, of course.
Williams donates the whole thing to his family charity.
Since the mid-1990s, members of the House of Assembly [right: Not exactly as illustrated] have quietly adopted the same practice. They take a portion of the allowances established to cover the costs of operating a constituency office and of representing their districts and hand them out to a variety of groups and individuals.There is something fundamentally - ethically - wrong with elected officials using public money, directly or indirectly, in this way.
It doesn't take a rule book or a judge to let you know it is...wrong.
Should we be surprised in the current political climate that at least one councilor at St. John's As cbc.ca notes in a story on a recent racket about budget cuts,
[Ron]Ellsworth, a successful businessman, said most of his salary winds up in community groups.Ah yes.
"My salary goes back into my ward," Ellsworth said.
The ward.
Money goes back to the ward.
Looks like Bond Papers had it right in 2005.
DW missile hits target!
Danny Williams said Friday he wanted to send a missile to the oil industry.
It hit.
bloomberg.com - one of the most widely read business news services included this paragraph in its coverage of Husky Energy's financial reports:
It hit.
bloomberg.com - one of the most widely read business news services included this paragraph in its coverage of Husky Energy's financial reports:
Husky's plan to boost output at White Rose may be slowed after a provincial government ruling rejected the proposed expansion of Hibernia, a nearby field, the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board said Feb. 1.The missile message got through: Newfoundland and Labrador might not be a good place to invest.
Lower Churchill costs increase; must be polling season
This announcement on filing an application to build transmission lines in New Brunswick for Lower Churchill electrical power means three things:
1. The costs of the project will escalate;
2. Corporate Research Associates is in the field again; and,
3. There are by-elections on the go.
1. The costs of the project will escalate;
2. Corporate Research Associates is in the field again; and,
3. There are by-elections on the go.
Service interruption
A minor technical glitch kept the updates down for a couple of days.
Bond is back!
We now return you to regularly scheduled programming.
Bond is back!
We now return you to regularly scheduled programming.
04 February 2007
McLellan joins LabMag
Former deputy prime minister Anne McLellan has joined New Millenium Corp as a strategic advisor.
New Millennium holds an 80% interest in the LabMag Iron Ore Project, the world's largest known undeveloped magnetite reserve that is currently at an advanced stage of exploration. The project is located in the province of Newfoundland and Labrador ("NL") about 220 km north of Labrador City and 30 km northwest of Schefferville, Quebec. The development envisions the construction and operation of a mine, crusher, concentrator, slurry pipeline, pellet plant, shiploading facilities and related infrastructure. Subject to positive feasibility studies and project financing, it is expected that pellet production from LabMag would constitute a significant new source of global pellet supply and would be shipped by ocean vessels to markets in Canada, the United States, Western Europe and Asia.
03 February 2007
Williams acts...long after the fact (Updated)(Updated 2)
[Originally posted 02 February 2007]
Danny Williams wants members of the legislature repay a $2800 bonus granted in May 2004 for the previous fiscal year.
Yesterday - after the story broke - Williams was defending the legislators as supposed victims of incompetent administration or an Internal Economy Commission that ran its own private, unquestioned fiefdom.
With such heavy public criticism, the Premier has apparently changed his mind.
Well, sort of.
First there's this little admission : "I became aware of the decision some time after the fact, and I don’t think there is any disagreement that it was a poor decision that did not reflect the values and guiding principles of our government at that time."
How long is "some time"? A day? A few hours? A few years?
If it was so obviously wrong - as the Premier now acknowledges - why did it take the public furor to have the Premier act?
________________________
Update: 02 February 2007 Premier Danny Williams scrummed with reporters today on his news release. Under questioning from David Cochrane (if the voice on the CBC Radio broadcast was right), the Premier equivocated on when he first learned of the added allowance for members of the House of Assembly.
Cochrane persisted to his credit.
Williams persisted in his evasion, to his detriment.
Then he switched to excuses: he was a new Premier with huge responsibilities and lots of stuff going on; when he heard about it he never put it in the wage freeze context; he didn't pay attention because it was about compensation and allowances and since he doesn't take a salary, then he didn't feel it right to have input on these things.
A bad story for the Premier just got immensely worse.
The Premier's evasion is done for the same reason as the vague wording in the original minutes of the Internal Economy Commission approving the allowance increase.
The Premier seeks to evade responsibility for his own actions, or in this case his inaction.
His excuses are more revealing of his mindset in seeking to escape responsibility.
The Premier's job is a tough one. It carries weighty responsibilities, not the least of which is to watch over the spending of public money. He has helpers in his task, if he lets them help. But those helpers must receive clear and unmistakable direction. Having worked in the office, your humble e-scribbler can attest to the demands of the office. Having spoken over the years with several premiers, your scribbler is also witness to the weight that sits on the shoulders of each Premier.
None would have offered excuses. The exercise of offering excuses is bad enough; it is the antithesis of leadership and fundamentally, the Premier must be a leader in good times and bad.
Not putting the allowance hike in the context of the freeze is a excuse which - by the Premier's own implication - suggests his judgment is exceedingly poor. How could he not see what everyone else apparently saw at the time and the public knows now? The allowance increase was unnecessary. It was wrong. He should have stopped it when he learned of it. He is the Premier after all.
The third is excuse is perhaps even more serious by implication than the others since it contains a serious misstatement of fact.
Danny Williams, member of the House of Assembly and Premier, collects a salary and draws down on his constituency entitlements and other allowances just like every other member of the House of Assembly and member of cabinet.
It's a matter of fact.
Nothing wrong with it.
He lives entirely within his means and there is no sign of any impropriety on his part.
Danny Williams donates his salary to his own family charity.
That too is a matter of fact.
Nothing wrong with it.
Who better - as Premier, and given his example - than to put a stop to an inappropriate public hand-out done in a sneaky way?
For the Premier to say he turned a blind eye to this allowance since he doesn't collect a salary is to mislead the public on a key aspect of an important issue. One can only believe the Premier does so deliberately since he repeats the same false comment each time he mentions his salary.
The House of Assembly story today took on a much more ominous cast for Danny Williams and it did so as a consequence of the Premier's own comments.
Danny Williams enjoys almost unprecedented public confidence in his forthrightness and integrity. People believe that above all else, Danny Williams will be accountable. That is his reputation.
The essence of accountability is responsibility.
In evading responsibility for not putting a halt to the allowance when it occurred or as soon as he learned of it, in equivocating so miserably on even when he knew, Danny Williams attacked the heart of his credibility and hence his reputation.
Danny Williams forgot the most important lesson of scandal: it is not the action or the inaction - not matter how minor - that causes a downfall.
It is the evasion that kills you in the long run.
__________________________________
Update 2: When did Danny know about the extra cash? Likely May 2004, when it was approved, according to the Telegram front page story in its 03 February edition.
That little morsel wasn't reported by other media.
So the guy who had enough power to order the Internal Economy Commission to let the Auditor General back into the House of Assembly in April 2004 couldn't or wouldn't deal with a bonus stipend right after he froze public sector wages for two years.
Hmmm.
The secretive bonus was effectively hidden from view by a vaguely worded set of minutes from the meeting that approved the retroactive payment.
As for the total overspending by members of the House of Assembly allowances and assistance budget during the two years of the freeze - 2004 and 2005 - well that was hidden by misreporting - deliberately (?) - the spending in the annual budget estimates.
For FY 2004, the government estimates showed spending as dead-on budget even though the entire cabinet knew at the time the account was overspent by $479,000. The next year they misreported the spending, knowing full-well the account was overspent by $557,000
The Auditor General's reports to date have only identified 20% of the overspending for those two years. AG John Noseworthy says his work on overspending is done.
Danny Williams wants members of the legislature repay a $2800 bonus granted in May 2004 for the previous fiscal year.
Yesterday - after the story broke - Williams was defending the legislators as supposed victims of incompetent administration or an Internal Economy Commission that ran its own private, unquestioned fiefdom.
With such heavy public criticism, the Premier has apparently changed his mind.
Well, sort of.
First there's this little admission : "I became aware of the decision some time after the fact, and I don’t think there is any disagreement that it was a poor decision that did not reflect the values and guiding principles of our government at that time."
How long is "some time"? A day? A few hours? A few years?
If it was so obviously wrong - as the Premier now acknowledges - why did it take the public furor to have the Premier act?
________________________
Update: 02 February 2007 Premier Danny Williams scrummed with reporters today on his news release. Under questioning from David Cochrane (if the voice on the CBC Radio broadcast was right), the Premier equivocated on when he first learned of the added allowance for members of the House of Assembly.
Cochrane persisted to his credit.
Williams persisted in his evasion, to his detriment.
Then he switched to excuses: he was a new Premier with huge responsibilities and lots of stuff going on; when he heard about it he never put it in the wage freeze context; he didn't pay attention because it was about compensation and allowances and since he doesn't take a salary, then he didn't feel it right to have input on these things.
A bad story for the Premier just got immensely worse.
The Premier's evasion is done for the same reason as the vague wording in the original minutes of the Internal Economy Commission approving the allowance increase.
The Premier seeks to evade responsibility for his own actions, or in this case his inaction.
His excuses are more revealing of his mindset in seeking to escape responsibility.
The Premier's job is a tough one. It carries weighty responsibilities, not the least of which is to watch over the spending of public money. He has helpers in his task, if he lets them help. But those helpers must receive clear and unmistakable direction. Having worked in the office, your humble e-scribbler can attest to the demands of the office. Having spoken over the years with several premiers, your scribbler is also witness to the weight that sits on the shoulders of each Premier.
None would have offered excuses. The exercise of offering excuses is bad enough; it is the antithesis of leadership and fundamentally, the Premier must be a leader in good times and bad.
Not putting the allowance hike in the context of the freeze is a excuse which - by the Premier's own implication - suggests his judgment is exceedingly poor. How could he not see what everyone else apparently saw at the time and the public knows now? The allowance increase was unnecessary. It was wrong. He should have stopped it when he learned of it. He is the Premier after all.
The third is excuse is perhaps even more serious by implication than the others since it contains a serious misstatement of fact.
Danny Williams, member of the House of Assembly and Premier, collects a salary and draws down on his constituency entitlements and other allowances just like every other member of the House of Assembly and member of cabinet.
It's a matter of fact.
Nothing wrong with it.
He lives entirely within his means and there is no sign of any impropriety on his part.
Danny Williams donates his salary to his own family charity.
That too is a matter of fact.
Nothing wrong with it.
Who better - as Premier, and given his example - than to put a stop to an inappropriate public hand-out done in a sneaky way?
For the Premier to say he turned a blind eye to this allowance since he doesn't collect a salary is to mislead the public on a key aspect of an important issue. One can only believe the Premier does so deliberately since he repeats the same false comment each time he mentions his salary.
The House of Assembly story today took on a much more ominous cast for Danny Williams and it did so as a consequence of the Premier's own comments.
Danny Williams enjoys almost unprecedented public confidence in his forthrightness and integrity. People believe that above all else, Danny Williams will be accountable. That is his reputation.
The essence of accountability is responsibility.
In evading responsibility for not putting a halt to the allowance when it occurred or as soon as he learned of it, in equivocating so miserably on even when he knew, Danny Williams attacked the heart of his credibility and hence his reputation.
Danny Williams forgot the most important lesson of scandal: it is not the action or the inaction - not matter how minor - that causes a downfall.
It is the evasion that kills you in the long run.
__________________________________
Update 2: When did Danny know about the extra cash? Likely May 2004, when it was approved, according to the Telegram front page story in its 03 February edition.
That little morsel wasn't reported by other media.
So the guy who had enough power to order the Internal Economy Commission to let the Auditor General back into the House of Assembly in April 2004 couldn't or wouldn't deal with a bonus stipend right after he froze public sector wages for two years.
Hmmm.
The secretive bonus was effectively hidden from view by a vaguely worded set of minutes from the meeting that approved the retroactive payment.
As for the total overspending by members of the House of Assembly allowances and assistance budget during the two years of the freeze - 2004 and 2005 - well that was hidden by misreporting - deliberately (?) - the spending in the annual budget estimates.
For FY 2004, the government estimates showed spending as dead-on budget even though the entire cabinet knew at the time the account was overspent by $479,000. The next year they misreported the spending, knowing full-well the account was overspent by $557,000
The Auditor General's reports to date have only identified 20% of the overspending for those two years. AG John Noseworthy says his work on overspending is done.
NL subsidiary posts higher profits in Alberta
FortisAlberta, subsidiary of Newfoundland and Labrador-based Fortis Inc announced Friday its profit for 2006 was Cdn$41.1 million, up from $31 million the year before.
The serial government slows further
Since Danny Williams took office in 2003 he's tried to manage the provincial government with everything - literally every little thing - flowing across his desk.
He's a micro-manager for micro-managers.
It shows in everything government does.
Or, to be more accurate what it doesn't do.
Micro-managing something as large as government means it doesn't take too long before your list of unaccomplishments - as Alice might say - is considerably long than your list of accomplishments.
There's plenty of meetings and busy-work and people generating "strategies", like the 20 or so Williams claims to have sitting on his desk right at the moment.
Some of the meetings go for hours, like one on the fishery last week that supposed went on for two or three hours. Smart leaders tell you any meeting longer than 30 minutes is useless.
But hey, it's hard to know for sure because Williams is also a definitebullshitter hyperbole addict. He tells fibs through the colourful use of exaggeration.
And he's a micro-manager.
That's why Bond Papers said that Danny Williams runs a serial government.
He takes everything - and we mean everything - one at a time.
He only has so much time available.
And so things pile up.
No surprise then, that Williams admits the latest bit of the House of Assembly money scandal is clogging the wheels of progress in Danny-land.
it's bound to do that.
God knows what else in his life is taking his mind off the business of micro-managing the living daylights out of a giant organization like government.
That's a government that in the next eight weeks has to:
- wage four by-elections;
- deliver a Throne Speech setting out the policy agenda for the next year;
- figure out what the policy agenda will be for the next year;
- write the Throne Speech, or at least edit it into yet another ear-numbing, soul-eating POS like the others so far;
- finish a budget that will call for more than $5.0 billion in spending and include a capital works program the size of the recent federal infrastructure project;
- wage an ongoing war with Big Oil;
- get ready for a war with Ottawa over hand-outs that are only necessary because of the failure of the war with Big Oil; and,
- cope with money scandals, bimbo eruptions or any other typical political crisis that might emerge - unforeseen - from the darkness.
It's enough to tighten even the tightest sphincter.
And as we know, that just makes the crap back up even more.
He's a micro-manager for micro-managers.
It shows in everything government does.
Or, to be more accurate what it doesn't do.
Micro-managing something as large as government means it doesn't take too long before your list of unaccomplishments - as Alice might say - is considerably long than your list of accomplishments.
There's plenty of meetings and busy-work and people generating "strategies", like the 20 or so Williams claims to have sitting on his desk right at the moment.
Some of the meetings go for hours, like one on the fishery last week that supposed went on for two or three hours. Smart leaders tell you any meeting longer than 30 minutes is useless.
But hey, it's hard to know for sure because Williams is also a definite
And he's a micro-manager.
That's why Bond Papers said that Danny Williams runs a serial government.
He takes everything - and we mean everything - one at a time.
He only has so much time available.
And so things pile up.
No surprise then, that Williams admits the latest bit of the House of Assembly money scandal is clogging the wheels of progress in Danny-land.
it's bound to do that.
God knows what else in his life is taking his mind off the business of micro-managing the living daylights out of a giant organization like government.
That's a government that in the next eight weeks has to:
- wage four by-elections;
- deliver a Throne Speech setting out the policy agenda for the next year;
- figure out what the policy agenda will be for the next year;
- write the Throne Speech, or at least edit it into yet another ear-numbing, soul-eating POS like the others so far;
- finish a budget that will call for more than $5.0 billion in spending and include a capital works program the size of the recent federal infrastructure project;
- wage an ongoing war with Big Oil;
- get ready for a war with Ottawa over hand-outs that are only necessary because of the failure of the war with Big Oil; and,
- cope with money scandals, bimbo eruptions or any other typical political crisis that might emerge - unforeseen - from the darkness.
It's enough to tighten even the tightest sphincter.
And as we know, that just makes the crap back up even more.
Williams to oilpatch: closed until further notice
Danny Williams is confused.
Or maybe Telegram political reporter Craig Jackson is confused.
In the Saturday paper, Danny Williams rants about Hebron, a multi-billion dollar deal that died last year and won't be revived anytime soon.
Danny should know he's not fighting on Hebron because...well...he killed it. Danny just got back from a very expensive hug-fest with the Alberta oil patch. Williams - you may recall - was trying to drum up work for local supply service companies who Williams shafted big time with his shut-down of the local oil industry last year. They had planned on doing work in this province on not one but oil developments.
Now people like Jerry Byrne are stuck with tagging along while Daddy Danny introduces them to Alberta, which is, as Danny put it, the place we want to be when we grow up.
To cap off the rant, Williams apparently then scolded Petro-Canada chief executive Ron Brenneman for pointing out that oil companies have other places to invest their money.
They are about as accurate as the Premier's comments on the secret bonus cash he called the scrum to discuss in the first place. Or for that matter they are about as accurate as a great many things he's been saying these last three years.
But I digress.
If Danny Williams wasn't so busy trying to cover up, paper over and otherwise dodge the mess in the House of Assembly - a mess he is responsible for just like the other forty-odd members of the legislature - Williams would have noticed Petro-Canada investing in places like Norway.
Why?
Let's compare the two places and their offshore:
A. Political Climate
1. Norway: Politically stable, mature democracy.
2. Newfoundland and Labrador: Politically unstable, immature democracy currently embroiled in a spending scandal. While the leader is not implicated directly, he admitted on Friday to condoning secretive bonus payments to legislators. Same leader may have taken cash - which came as a tax-free entitlement - and donated to his family charity.
leader prone to rants. Since shortly after taking office, frequently talks of leaving office due to pressures of work and ingratitude of public.
Admires Hugo Chavez.
B. Regulatory environment
1. Norway: Regulatory authority arms length from government with no conflicts of interest with government policy and taxation arm or state-owned energy companies. A model system often used as an example for the world.
2. Newfoundland and Labrador: Regulatory authority arms length from government with no conflicts of interest with government policy and taxation arm or state-owned oil companies.
Warning: Since taking office, current Premier has been engaged in a series of efforts to bring all regulatory, policy and state-owned energy businesses under his direct control. Actively creates serious conflicts of interest. Attempted to subvert the independence of the regulatory authority by appointing political and ideological ally to senior position. Recently overturned regulatory decision on major project citing "lack of information."
C. Financial
1. Norway: A mature, stable financial environment in which government royalty and taxation is designed to balance government revenue with the need to stimulate exploration and development
2. Newfoundland and Labrador. Total unknown. In Hebron negotiations, Leader suddenly jacked up demands at last minute, after a working agreement was achieved. Gas royalty regime in development for 10 years, currently on hold while leader copes with widening political scandal. State-owned energy company officials recently spoke admiringly of oil and gas regime in developing world dictatorships.
Not surprising that the companies are quickly leaving the local oil patch for somewhere else.
Given the political mess that has been seizing more and more government attention and which on Friday started lapping at the door of the Premier's Office, it will be surprising if the local oilpatch rights itself or is righted any time soon.
Danny Williams is out of touch, overwhelmed and largely incapable of progress on many issues. From his scrum, all he can offer is bluster which sends a clear message to everyone, including Big Oil:
Newfoundland and Labrador's oilpatch is closed until further notice.
Or maybe Telegram political reporter Craig Jackson is confused.
In the Saturday paper, Danny Williams rants about Hebron, a multi-billion dollar deal that died last year and won't be revived anytime soon.
"I'm into a battle with them to make sure that they are not jamming us on the Hebron field," Williams said.If Danny Williams is still in a battle on that one, then he is fighting alone. The oil companies left last year. They won't be coming back, at least as long as the pugnacious, dyspeptic, East Coast satrap is hanging around.
Danny should know he's not fighting on Hebron because...well...he killed it. Danny just got back from a very expensive hug-fest with the Alberta oil patch. Williams - you may recall - was trying to drum up work for local supply service companies who Williams shafted big time with his shut-down of the local oil industry last year. They had planned on doing work in this province on not one but oil developments.
Now people like Jerry Byrne are stuck with tagging along while Daddy Danny introduces them to Alberta, which is, as Danny put it, the place we want to be when we grow up.
To cap off the rant, Williams apparently then scolded Petro-Canada chief executive Ron Brenneman for pointing out that oil companies have other places to invest their money.
"Well, I ask Ron to tell me where he can get a return which gives him, basically, $60 on a $3 cost. That’s a pretty good return," said Williams,...Well for one thing, those figures are not accurate for Hibernia, Hebron or anywhere else in the local offshore.
They are about as accurate as the Premier's comments on the secret bonus cash he called the scrum to discuss in the first place. Or for that matter they are about as accurate as a great many things he's been saying these last three years.
But I digress.
If Danny Williams wasn't so busy trying to cover up, paper over and otherwise dodge the mess in the House of Assembly - a mess he is responsible for just like the other forty-odd members of the legislature - Williams would have noticed Petro-Canada investing in places like Norway.
Why?
Let's compare the two places and their offshore:
A. Political Climate
1. Norway: Politically stable, mature democracy.
2. Newfoundland and Labrador: Politically unstable, immature democracy currently embroiled in a spending scandal. While the leader is not implicated directly, he admitted on Friday to condoning secretive bonus payments to legislators. Same leader may have taken cash - which came as a tax-free entitlement - and donated to his family charity.
leader prone to rants. Since shortly after taking office, frequently talks of leaving office due to pressures of work and ingratitude of public.
Admires Hugo Chavez.
B. Regulatory environment
1. Norway: Regulatory authority arms length from government with no conflicts of interest with government policy and taxation arm or state-owned energy companies. A model system often used as an example for the world.
2. Newfoundland and Labrador: Regulatory authority arms length from government with no conflicts of interest with government policy and taxation arm or state-owned oil companies.
Warning: Since taking office, current Premier has been engaged in a series of efforts to bring all regulatory, policy and state-owned energy businesses under his direct control. Actively creates serious conflicts of interest. Attempted to subvert the independence of the regulatory authority by appointing political and ideological ally to senior position. Recently overturned regulatory decision on major project citing "lack of information."
C. Financial
1. Norway: A mature, stable financial environment in which government royalty and taxation is designed to balance government revenue with the need to stimulate exploration and development
2. Newfoundland and Labrador. Total unknown. In Hebron negotiations, Leader suddenly jacked up demands at last minute, after a working agreement was achieved. Gas royalty regime in development for 10 years, currently on hold while leader copes with widening political scandal. State-owned energy company officials recently spoke admiringly of oil and gas regime in developing world dictatorships.
Not surprising that the companies are quickly leaving the local oil patch for somewhere else.
Given the political mess that has been seizing more and more government attention and which on Friday started lapping at the door of the Premier's Office, it will be surprising if the local oilpatch rights itself or is righted any time soon.
Danny Williams is out of touch, overwhelmed and largely incapable of progress on many issues. From his scrum, all he can offer is bluster which sends a clear message to everyone, including Big Oil:
Newfoundland and Labrador's oilpatch is closed until further notice.
Williams money recall: Lipstick on a pig
Give the Telegram editorialist credit for stating it plainly and correctly.
In Saturday's editorial, the province's largest circulation daily tells its largest daily audience that it just isn't good enough for Danny Williams to ask his fellow politicians to return money now that they were caught getting it.
The payment itself is called "sleazy, dishonest and downright underhanded."
Absolutely.
In Saturday's editorial, the province's largest circulation daily tells its largest daily audience that it just isn't good enough for Danny Williams to ask his fellow politicians to return money now that they were caught getting it.
The payment itself is called "sleazy, dishonest and downright underhanded."
Absolutely.
The current crop of MHAs, rightly or wrongly, are now marked by their behaviour, maybe for the rest of their political careers. And because of that, they should be fully and publicly policed — they may not realize it, but if they had done the same as a civil servant, they would now be fired.Let's see what happens.
02 February 2007
Energy minister displays incompetence...again
Newfoundlanders and Labradorians are growing sadly too familiar with incompetent legislators who sign documents without reading them.
In the case of natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale, they also know she has some difficulty with information. Google is a concept she never mastered in another portfolio as she insisted her officials would "do the due diligence piece".
Now in what may turn out to be another pissing match between this administration and someone else, Dunderdale has issued a news release and taken exception to the publication on Thursday of documents by the offshore regulatory board related to Hibernia South.
Dunderdale has a right to be embarrassed. Documents released show the inherent falsehood in many of Dunderdale's claims when she vetoed the Hibernia South project conditional approval. It's never nice to have your incompetence displayed in such an open and unequivocal fashion.
For example, Dunderdale claimed the Board's decision removed the province's ability to look after its financial interests. Not true, as the official Decision demonstrates in remarkably plain English. The project could proceed - if and only if - the provincial government was satisfied on matters related to royalties. Similar safeguards existed on benefits and two other issues affecting the long-term exploitation of the Hibernia field.
Dunderdale's veto letter, by contrast was poorly written and highly repetitive. Dunderdale's letter-writer(s) appeared to be grasping for any available excuse to justify a decision taken many months before by her boss.
It is highly unusual for a regulatory board to release information in this way.
However, both Dunderdale and her boss have consistently attacked the competence of the 60 Newfoundlanders and Labradorians protecting the interests of the province at the offshore Board. Their morale has suffered solely as a result of the ignorant comments directed at them either directly or indirectly by the Premier.
In her rejection letter, Dunderdale impugned the Board itself. The Board had little choice but to demonstrate that Dunderdale's attacks on its competence and actions were utterly without merit. The Board released information that might otherwise have been withheld to avoid a repetition of the sorry display of political games played by a former Premier and his energy minister over the Terra Nova project. At that time, Brian Tobin and Chuck Furey blamed the offshore board for decisions they sanctioned.
Bond Papers will have a lengthier post on this issue over the weekend. The only thing Dunderdale made clear in her letter released today, is that she needs to read her own documents rather than affixing her signature to letters dictated for her by others.
In the case of natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale, they also know she has some difficulty with information. Google is a concept she never mastered in another portfolio as she insisted her officials would "do the due diligence piece".
Now in what may turn out to be another pissing match between this administration and someone else, Dunderdale has issued a news release and taken exception to the publication on Thursday of documents by the offshore regulatory board related to Hibernia South.
Dunderdale has a right to be embarrassed. Documents released show the inherent falsehood in many of Dunderdale's claims when she vetoed the Hibernia South project conditional approval. It's never nice to have your incompetence displayed in such an open and unequivocal fashion.
For example, Dunderdale claimed the Board's decision removed the province's ability to look after its financial interests. Not true, as the official Decision demonstrates in remarkably plain English. The project could proceed - if and only if - the provincial government was satisfied on matters related to royalties. Similar safeguards existed on benefits and two other issues affecting the long-term exploitation of the Hibernia field.
Dunderdale's veto letter, by contrast was poorly written and highly repetitive. Dunderdale's letter-writer(s) appeared to be grasping for any available excuse to justify a decision taken many months before by her boss.
It is highly unusual for a regulatory board to release information in this way.
However, both Dunderdale and her boss have consistently attacked the competence of the 60 Newfoundlanders and Labradorians protecting the interests of the province at the offshore Board. Their morale has suffered solely as a result of the ignorant comments directed at them either directly or indirectly by the Premier.
In her rejection letter, Dunderdale impugned the Board itself. The Board had little choice but to demonstrate that Dunderdale's attacks on its competence and actions were utterly without merit. The Board released information that might otherwise have been withheld to avoid a repetition of the sorry display of political games played by a former Premier and his energy minister over the Terra Nova project. At that time, Brian Tobin and Chuck Furey blamed the offshore board for decisions they sanctioned.
Bond Papers will have a lengthier post on this issue over the weekend. The only thing Dunderdale made clear in her letter released today, is that she needs to read her own documents rather than affixing her signature to letters dictated for her by others.
Did Williams fatten charity with allowance?
Since first confronted with the Auditor General's revelation that members of the legislature took a retro-active bonus in 2004, Premier Danny Williams has contended that it didn't apply to him as he does not take a salary.
His language has grown carefully precise but potentially misleading. Williams states that he did not take or receive the money personally.
Many people, including most reporters, have interpreted this to mean that Williams did not take the money full stop. Williams' publicist told the Telegram the Premier did not use the money - not because he takes no salary - but because, as the Telly attributes the remark, Williams "had sufficient constituency funds available.
The latter comment was made before the rest of us realized or were made aware that the House of Assembly actually had already overspent its budget by $350,000. Rather than provide reimbursement on a case by case basis, the House of Assembly's executive committee - controlled by three of Williams' senior ministers - opted to give everyone a retroactive bonus. The additional $2800 applied to the previous fiscal year and was not issued on the basis of receipted expenses.
On Friday, Danny Williams admitted he learned of the payment sometime after it was approved, but did nothing to stop it until public outrage reached its current peak. Williams' parliamentary assistant and one of his ministers tried to justify the retro-cash with no success on Thursday.
The key point to recall is that Williams in fact does collect a salary and routinely avails of allowances and other stipends from the House of Assembly.
The question to be answered is this: Did Danny Williams not receive the bonus at all or did he take and turn it over to the Williams Family Foundation?
The former is what people have assumed. But we have all made grave errors in doing along with what we assume Danny and others have meant when what they said was actually very different.
The latter would be entirely consistent with the Premier's language and with established practice of donating his salary and stipends to his family charity. It would also explain - more than anything else - why he simply kept his mouth shut about the thing. And too, since he had actually taken the money, it would explain the Premier's reluctance to admit when he knew about the bonus and why it took him three years and the ire of voters across the province to realize the allowance was a bad thing.
The Auditor General knows who got the money and who didn't.
Maybe he'd tell us, if someone asked.
His language has grown carefully precise but potentially misleading. Williams states that he did not take or receive the money personally.
Many people, including most reporters, have interpreted this to mean that Williams did not take the money full stop. Williams' publicist told the Telegram the Premier did not use the money - not because he takes no salary - but because, as the Telly attributes the remark, Williams "had sufficient constituency funds available.
The latter comment was made before the rest of us realized or were made aware that the House of Assembly actually had already overspent its budget by $350,000. Rather than provide reimbursement on a case by case basis, the House of Assembly's executive committee - controlled by three of Williams' senior ministers - opted to give everyone a retroactive bonus. The additional $2800 applied to the previous fiscal year and was not issued on the basis of receipted expenses.
On Friday, Danny Williams admitted he learned of the payment sometime after it was approved, but did nothing to stop it until public outrage reached its current peak. Williams' parliamentary assistant and one of his ministers tried to justify the retro-cash with no success on Thursday.
The key point to recall is that Williams in fact does collect a salary and routinely avails of allowances and other stipends from the House of Assembly.
The question to be answered is this: Did Danny Williams not receive the bonus at all or did he take and turn it over to the Williams Family Foundation?
The former is what people have assumed. But we have all made grave errors in doing along with what we assume Danny and others have meant when what they said was actually very different.
The latter would be entirely consistent with the Premier's language and with established practice of donating his salary and stipends to his family charity. It would also explain - more than anything else - why he simply kept his mouth shut about the thing. And too, since he had actually taken the money, it would explain the Premier's reluctance to admit when he knew about the bonus and why it took him three years and the ire of voters across the province to realize the allowance was a bad thing.
The Auditor General knows who got the money and who didn't.
Maybe he'd tell us, if someone asked.
Friday Follies
This wasn't there last night when Bond posted last night on advertising.
But overnight, this turned up on youtube.com.
It's funny.
But overnight, this turned up on youtube.com.
It's funny.
Hibernia South veto has consequences
Bond Papers linked to the offshore board documents on Thursday, but the Telegram's Moira Baird does a much better job of covering the Hibernia South story here.
The offshore board noted the implication inherent in government's decision - namely that the approvals process would take longer on future projects.
Industry representative Paul Barnes concurs:
The offshore board noted the implication inherent in government's decision - namely that the approvals process would take longer on future projects.
Industry representative Paul Barnes concurs:
"From the industry’s perspective, this will mean it will take longer to get projects approved," said Paul Barnes, Atlantic Canada manager for CAPP in St. John’s.
"This flies in the face of what we’ve been working towards with governments over the last few years in trying to shorten timelines for regulatory approval."
Barnes says the Hibernia South decision erodes efforts to create a "single regulatory window" and increases uncertainty about the rules for Newfoundland offshore developments.
"It’s causing a lot of confusion,” he said. “You’ve got to have certainty around the regulatory regime because it has an impact on who invests here, why they invest and when they invest."
Advertising highs and well...ummm...
For SuperBowl Sunday (now that I know when it is!), here's a spot that remains one of the best SuperBowl spots ever run. This one comes from Pirate Radio and Television, which regular readers of Bond Papers will know is home to Terry O'Reilly's creatively warped cranium. Here's the link to O'Reilly's blog supporting his CBC radio show, Age of Persuasion.
On another level entirely are these spots coming from some pseudonyposter on youtube.com and aimed squarely at the local political market.
These showed up at the Bond e-mail just as they seem to have shown up in a bunch of other inboxes. Despite the fact the first one has had almost 8,000 hits and managed to make both vocm.com and NTV evening news, your humble e-scribbler isn't sure if they are hitting anything other than a novelty.
Nonetheless, here is the latest one: a karaoke version of an old Frank Sinatra song, rewritten to reflect local content.
This kind of guerrilla advertising is likely to spread as the technology to produce video of a reasonable quality grows more accessible.
On another level entirely are these spots coming from some pseudonyposter on youtube.com and aimed squarely at the local political market.
These showed up at the Bond e-mail just as they seem to have shown up in a bunch of other inboxes. Despite the fact the first one has had almost 8,000 hits and managed to make both vocm.com and NTV evening news, your humble e-scribbler isn't sure if they are hitting anything other than a novelty.
Nonetheless, here is the latest one: a karaoke version of an old Frank Sinatra song, rewritten to reflect local content.
This kind of guerrilla advertising is likely to spread as the technology to produce video of a reasonable quality grows more accessible.
Boston "guerrilla marketing" stunt: a dumb idea
The publicity stunt that set Boston police bomb squads hopping on Thursday was not a guerrilla stunt so much as a case of some monkey tossing his own...well, you know.
If convicted, the twotwits misunderstood creative geniuses will fit right in; jails are full of stupid people victims of society.
Successful crooks never get caught.
And smart marketers don't screw up in the first place or compound their error with a totally lame news gaggle in which they talk about "hair" questions.
If convicted, the two
Successful crooks never get caught.
And smart marketers don't screw up in the first place or compound their error with a totally lame news gaggle in which they talk about "hair" questions.
01 February 2007
Alberta oilpatch keen on Norwegian offshore
From CanWest:
Maybe this has something to do with it:
Around here, Danny Williams keeps pointing to the Norwegian example.
Well, apparently he doesn't understand how Norway really works.
Canadian-based companies went to town Tuesday in Norway's offshore oil and gas licensing round, snapping up 13 of 49 parcels offered in the world's third-largest petroleum exporter.Petro-Canada led the way by gaining interests in seven blocks; Nexen Inc. had four and Talisman Energy Inc. came away with two.Half a world away, local analysts said the Norwegian North Sea offers potentially big discoveries for homegrown players operating in a mature oil and gas region....So why aren't they looking at Newfoundland and Labrador?
Maybe this has something to do with it:
Though the state oil company Statoil controls about 60 per cent of the country's production, Norway has been liberalizing its fiscal regime to offset declines and attract new exploration.
Knowles compared it to competition between the governments of Alberta and Saskatchewan to attract drilling dollars in their respective jurisdictions. "The same kind of thing happens between the U.K. and Norway."'
Fuelled by a royalty holiday on new discoveries, the European North Sea has become a hot spot for Canadian companies operating abroad.... [Emphasis added]
Around here, Danny Williams keeps pointing to the Norwegian example.
Well, apparently he doesn't understand how Norway really works.
Army reserve stretched by Afghan mission
Reserve army commanders told the Senate committee on national security that continuing the Afghan mission beyond 2009 will put increased pressure on reserve army units for training and recruiting.
Military family support centres opens in Corner Brook
With the deployment of nine reservists from second battalion of the Royal Newfoundland Regiment, the Gander Military Family Resource Centre is opening an office in the west coast city.
Dunderdale wrong on offshore board and Hibernia South
The Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Board today released (click "what's new", once at the CNLOPB site) correspondence between the board and the provincial government on Hibernia South.
In total, the correspondence, including the formal reply to natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale's letter of January 17, 2007, demolishes every contention by the provincial government on the proposal and on the board's actions.
Among the choice comments: "The Board's Decision [sic] actually goes a step further by requiring that the agreement [commercial agreement among the proponents] be approved by the royalty owner, i.e. the Province, before it will be acceptable to the Board."
That's right: there would have been no production unless and until the provincial government was satisfied on its financial issues.
So much for Dunderdale's spin that she rejected the decision merely to seek "more information".
In total, the correspondence, including the formal reply to natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale's letter of January 17, 2007, demolishes every contention by the provincial government on the proposal and on the board's actions.
Among the choice comments: "The Board's Decision [sic] actually goes a step further by requiring that the agreement [commercial agreement among the proponents] be approved by the royalty owner, i.e. the Province, before it will be acceptable to the Board."
That's right: there would have been no production unless and until the provincial government was satisfied on its financial issues.
So much for Dunderdale's spin that she rejected the decision merely to seek "more information".
31 January 2007
March Madness starts early
Danny meets with European journalists to talk up the seal hunt.
Q. What do the following have in common?
Anna Nicole Smith
Loretta Swit
Pam Ferdin
Elizabeth Berkley
Danny Williams
A. All use the seal hunt to boost their careers.
Q. What do the following have in common?
Anna Nicole Smith
Loretta Swit
Pam Ferdin
Elizabeth Berkley
Danny Williams
A. All use the seal hunt to boost their careers.
A New Approach to roads maintenance
From the AG's report on government spending and operations:
In 1996, we concluded that the Department was not adequately managing the Province's road system. A decade later in 2006, we have come to the same conclusion.
A make-work slush fund in an unaccountable government?
From the AG's report on a make work program in the municipal affairs department:
Openness, accountability and transparency in an administration that brings a genuinely New Approach to government.
Pull the other one.
Because the Job Creation Program was funded through special warrants and intra-departmental transfers from other programs, there was no opportunity for the House of Assembly to debate and consider funding requirements for the Program. Furthermore, although officials indicated that funding allocation was made by electoral district, there was no documentation available to show how much was allocated to each district or the basis for the allocation.and then this:
There was no documentation in the files outlining the rationale for funding approvals.
Openness, accountability and transparency in an administration that brings a genuinely New Approach to government.
Pull the other one.
AG reports deficit and surplus at same time for same agency
Auditor General John Noseworthy released his comprehensive review of of provincial government spending and management today.
There is some new information about the House of Assembly scandal, including admission for the first time that Noseworthy's review started in January 2006. That's six months before the first public acknowledgement a review was underway. Bond Papers will have more on this in the days ahead, including some comment on Noseworthy's misunderstanding of the provincial constitution.
One curiosity in Noseworthy's summary booklet: in a section on educational spending, Noseworthy suddenly reports on deficits for health care boards:
This is no small discrepancy nor is it an easy cock-up to make. The names of the respective health care and educational authorities are different for one thing. Of course, the report is exceedingly lengthy at some 475 pages but there is a huge staff at the Auditor General's office including a new "information" manager.
There is some new information about the House of Assembly scandal, including admission for the first time that Noseworthy's review started in January 2006. That's six months before the first public acknowledgement a review was underway. Bond Papers will have more on this in the days ahead, including some comment on Noseworthy's misunderstanding of the provincial constitution.
One curiosity in Noseworthy's summary booklet: in a section on educational spending, Noseworthy suddenly reports on deficits for health care boards:
(c) Operating resultsThis produces an odd set of conclusions, since in the section on health authorities, the Labrador-Grenfell board goes from an operating surplus in the section quoted above to an unspecified deficit:
All 5 boards reported operating surpluses for the year ended 30 June 2006 totalling $5.1 million. Operating surpluses ranged from $349,000 for the Labrador-Grenfell Regional Integrated Health Authority to $2.3 million for the Eastern Regional Integrated Health Authority. Because of inconsistent reporting periods resulting from the restructuring of school boards in 2004, comparisons with prior years' financial results would not currently be meaningful. It will be next year before effective and meaningful comparisons can be performed.
During the year, all 4 boards reported operating deficits totalling $11.0 million. Operating deficits ranged from $400,000 for the Western Regional Integrated Health Authority to $5.6 million for the Eastern Regional Integrated Health Authority. One board, the Labrador-Grenfell Regional Integrated Health Authority, reported an annual operating deficit higher than that reported for the fiscal year 2005.Hmmmm.
This is no small discrepancy nor is it an easy cock-up to make. The names of the respective health care and educational authorities are different for one thing. Of course, the report is exceedingly lengthy at some 475 pages but there is a huge staff at the Auditor General's office including a new "information" manager.
Prems cancel meet fearing Equalization "bunfight"
The Council of the Federation meeting on February 7 will now take place via conference call instead of the face-to-face session originally planned.
The official reason is that there were scheduling problems. That doesn't hold water since Premiers were well aware of the meeting well in advance. Scheduling problems wouldn't be eased by a conference call, especially if the agenda was as extensive as previously claimed.
Initial media reports suggest the meeting was cancelled out of concern it would turn into a "bunfight" over Equalization.
In October 2004, Premier Danny Williams - the current chair of the Council of the Federation - stormed out of a meeting on Equalization, ostensibly to express his rejection of a federal proposal on offshore revenues. Other reports suggested the dramatic exit was to avoid - at least in part - criticism from other premiers of his approach.
The official reason is that there were scheduling problems. That doesn't hold water since Premiers were well aware of the meeting well in advance. Scheduling problems wouldn't be eased by a conference call, especially if the agenda was as extensive as previously claimed.
Initial media reports suggest the meeting was cancelled out of concern it would turn into a "bunfight" over Equalization.
In October 2004, Premier Danny Williams - the current chair of the Council of the Federation - stormed out of a meeting on Equalization, ostensibly to express his rejection of a federal proposal on offshore revenues. Other reports suggested the dramatic exit was to avoid - at least in part - criticism from other premiers of his approach.
30 January 2007
Hibernia spat led to better royalty regime
In 2000, the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador vetoed an increase in production rates at Hibernia but subsequently approved the hike based on a better royalty agreement with the operators.
Then-energy minister Paul Dicks delivered a statement on the decision to the House of Assembly on April 10, 2000. In the statement, Dicks said that "[i]f the production increase had been approved, more oil would have been taken from the field at a lower royalty rate. Over the life of the project, this would have negatively impacted royalties to the province."
The production rate increase had been approved by the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board based on an application by the Hibernia operators
One difference between the 2000 decision and recent rejection of the Hibernia South development application is the speed with which government acted. Dicks initiated discussions on the application as soon as the offshore board decision was forwarded to government in early March. No agreement was reached within the 30-day window for approval set under the Atlantic Accord (1985) implementation acts.
In the Hibernia South case, apparently, the provincial government did not initiate contact with the operators nor, apparently, did it raise concerns over incomplete information in the Hibernia application until after the project application was rejected.
The provincial government has still not indicated its goal for Hibernia South. Industry sources suggest the provincial government is seeking to treat the 300 million barrel development as a new project which would involve a new royalty and benefits agreement and a new production platform.
The operators reportedly wanted to bring Hibernia South onstream in 2008 and, as Petro-Canada chief executive Ron Brenneman put it, "step out into the more prolific and better return prospects" while boosting production rates back to 200,000 barrels a day, the rate established in 2004.
In the 2000 disagreement, talks continued beyond the 30 day mark and an agreement was reached that June. Under the new deal - a supplement to the original Hibernia agreement -
Another major difference between the 2000 and 2006 disputes involves project pay out or the point at which the provincial royalty rises to 30% per barrel. In 2000, the provincial government secured a revised royalty regime that allowed the project to pay out around 2011, according to some estimates. Dicks noted in his statements that under the original regime, pay out was unlikely.
In 2000, total reserves at Hibernia were estimated at 1.2 billion barrels, including oil already produced. By 2006, total reserves estimates had reached 1.9 billion, the bulk of which would remain to be produced after pay out.
Treating Hibernia South as a new project would likely restrict provincial royalties to a lesser amount for an indefinite period and might delay pay out on the entire project. A new production platform would not be needed to extract Hibernia South, except in response to a political demand.
____________________
NOTE 1: Bond Papers previously reported that the Hibernia South rejection was the first time a provincial government had overturned a fundamental decision by the offshore board. In fact, it appears to be the second, except for the differences noted above.
NOTE 2: In the ministerial statement, Paul Dicks said: "To date, government is not satisfied that the province is being kept whole." Aficionados will recognize "keep whole" or "kept whole" as a favourite phrase of the current Premier.
Then-energy minister Paul Dicks delivered a statement on the decision to the House of Assembly on April 10, 2000. In the statement, Dicks said that "[i]f the production increase had been approved, more oil would have been taken from the field at a lower royalty rate. Over the life of the project, this would have negatively impacted royalties to the province."
The production rate increase had been approved by the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board based on an application by the Hibernia operators
One difference between the 2000 decision and recent rejection of the Hibernia South development application is the speed with which government acted. Dicks initiated discussions on the application as soon as the offshore board decision was forwarded to government in early March. No agreement was reached within the 30-day window for approval set under the Atlantic Accord (1985) implementation acts.
In the Hibernia South case, apparently, the provincial government did not initiate contact with the operators nor, apparently, did it raise concerns over incomplete information in the Hibernia application until after the project application was rejected.
The provincial government has still not indicated its goal for Hibernia South. Industry sources suggest the provincial government is seeking to treat the 300 million barrel development as a new project which would involve a new royalty and benefits agreement and a new production platform.
The operators reportedly wanted to bring Hibernia South onstream in 2008 and, as Petro-Canada chief executive Ron Brenneman put it, "step out into the more prolific and better return prospects" while boosting production rates back to 200,000 barrels a day, the rate established in 2004.
In the 2000 disagreement, talks continued beyond the 30 day mark and an agreement was reached that June. Under the new deal - a supplement to the original Hibernia agreement -
"The royalty rate will increase above the current two per cent to three per cent earlier. It will then move to four per cent and five per cent after certain cumulative production levels have been reached. This will result in higher royalties than under the time based system,...This method of dealing with royalty rate increases is consistent with Terra Nova and the generic royalty regime in place for White Rose and future offshore projects."Dicks said the original Hibernia royalty agreement remained in place and would "act as a floor to ensure that if production declines, rate increases will occur in any event."
Another major difference between the 2000 and 2006 disputes involves project pay out or the point at which the provincial royalty rises to 30% per barrel. In 2000, the provincial government secured a revised royalty regime that allowed the project to pay out around 2011, according to some estimates. Dicks noted in his statements that under the original regime, pay out was unlikely.
In 2000, total reserves at Hibernia were estimated at 1.2 billion barrels, including oil already produced. By 2006, total reserves estimates had reached 1.9 billion, the bulk of which would remain to be produced after pay out.
Treating Hibernia South as a new project would likely restrict provincial royalties to a lesser amount for an indefinite period and might delay pay out on the entire project. A new production platform would not be needed to extract Hibernia South, except in response to a political demand.
____________________
NOTE 1: Bond Papers previously reported that the Hibernia South rejection was the first time a provincial government had overturned a fundamental decision by the offshore board. In fact, it appears to be the second, except for the differences noted above.
NOTE 2: In the ministerial statement, Paul Dicks said: "To date, government is not satisfied that the province is being kept whole." Aficionados will recognize "keep whole" or "kept whole" as a favourite phrase of the current Premier.
Cable companies expanding phone services nationally
In Newfoundland and Labrador, that means your tax dollars at work.
Fish processing worker background
Some quick references on the issue:
1. An analysis by the Atlantic Institute for Market Studies, 2002. An extract:
1. An analysis by the Atlantic Institute for Market Studies, 2002. An extract:
Newfoundland has almost 140 fish plants, and up to 20,000 fish plant workers. Although some of the plants are highly automated, highly efficient operations that produce year-round. (National Sea's Arnold's Cove plant and Beothuck Fisheries’ Valleyfield plant are examples of a modern year round fish processing industry.) Many of the rest were put there for political reasons, often paid for by tax dollars, an often barely able to give their workers the 420 hours needed to qualify for 34 weeks of employment insurance....2. From 2004, a short news release from then-fish minister Trevor Taylor. An extract:
The pulp and paper industry in Newfoundland has only 60% of its 1972workforce, while the fishplants employ twice as many as they did in 1972. Even the number of loggers is down by almost50%, while the number of fishermen continues to climb. In 1972 the Newfoundland unemployment rate was eight per cent. Since the advent of the "stamp fishery" and easier EI it has averaged between 15 and 20 per cent. A good quarter of that unemployment is directly attributable to the "stamp fishery."
Work at fish plants tends to be short-term in rural areas where employment opportunities are low and unemployment rates are high. The Fish Processing Policy Review Commission, under the direction of Commissioner Eric Dunne (Dunne Report), found that in real terms plant workers' average employment income in the province had declined to $9,660 in 2001. The outlook for plant workers is unclear given that technological innovations continue to reduce the labour demands of the fishing industry.3. A typical Williams administration response, to date. The federal government has followed the same approach.
The Government of Newfoundland and Labrador will provide an additional $2.4 million to assist fish plant workers who will likely not secure sufficient hours to qualify for Employment Insurance. The Honourable John Ottenheimer, Acting Municipal Affairs Minister, today announced the funding to meet employment support needs in the province’s fishery.4. Fishery reports. The problems have been studied - a lot; here are just two.
Williams: is he completely nuts?
It's not like people haven't called him nutty nutty nutbar before.It's not like his behaviour hasn't grown somewhat erratic lately, (think John Hickey in and out of cabinet).
Forget his glee at demolishing the largest fishing company in Atlantic Canada. Is it really a "golden opportunity"?
Now Danny Williams claims that the fish processing sector will collapse within five years if we don't start importing labourers from other countries at high speed.
This is one bizarre claim, given that Williams knows full well the processing industry needs to shed workers at high speed to restore profitability. There are way too many workers chasing too few fish. Wages are dropping. Hours of work are dropping and in some plants work is going begging because it simply isn't worth people's while to drive to another community for the measly few hours work involved.
Don't just believe it because you read it in Bond Papers.
Believe the head of the hunter-gatherers union, Earl McCurdy, who has been busily working to get both the federal and provincial governments to pony up for an early retirement package.
Believe Danny Williams who only last year - that's right - last year was writing to the federal party leaders trying to get their support for yes, an early retirement package for workers. In fact, an early retirement package was the very first thing Williams went looking for from whoever became Uncle Ottawa.
So is he nuts?
No.
By Danny Williams' own account he was caught in a conversation with other premiers and a reporter about immigration. Other provinces are farther ahead in handling the immigration issue.
Around Bond Papers, it looks like he got jammed up in a scrum, felt the need to offer input and in the classic four Yorkshireman way, basically said we'd have to get our immigration act in gear because if we didn't: Armageddon.
Well instead, Danny winds up looking like all his bags were packed and he's ready to go, leaving on a jetplane to Looneyville.
And for those who think we will wind up importing Bulgarian fishwomen like they've done in the Martimes - just because they've done it in the Maritimes - think again.
They don't have the humongous surplus of capacity we do. The numbers vary but Bond Papers can find people who will tell you that we can actually produce a thriving industry with merely 10-20% of the 100+ fish processing plants dotted around the island portion of the province.
Fewer than 20 plants.
If the early retirement thing works, there will be negligible demand for labour beyond what can be supplied by the local labour market.
Now comes the tricky part.
If the provincial government would get out of the way, the fish processing sector could sort itself out and find new markets and new production ideas that require fewer workers.
Unfortunately the current provincial fish minister [right] thinks he's still in the 1980s. He busily piles on regulations designed to frustrate the marketplace, drive up costs, and in the case of Fishery Products International keep the economic pressure on a company that would have righted itself long ago were it not for the provincial government's neglect or as one suspects, outright mischief.No, Danny is not nuts.
Well, not drooling on himself, need a straight-jacket, barking like a dog, hearing voices, up his meds kinda nuts.
Danny Williams just has this habit of pulling things out of any available orifice when he feels the need. When Danny gets caught
Sadly, in this farce, the Premier has enablers: like Paul Oram, his current parliamentary assistant, who seems to have no function other than laud the Premier's magnificence in hopes that the Premier will elevate Oram to a cabinet stipend.
Sometimes it works. Sometimes, as in this instance, it doesn't. We are now in Day Two of Immi-gate and already we have the provincial fisheries department saying it has no studies on labour demands in the processing sector, even though Williams claimed to have read said studies.
And the story of the serious questions about the Premier's
Ooops.
The story likely won't last past today, however. There is always something else around these parts and tomorrow it will be the Auditor General's latest overall review of government spending.
Meanwhile, the fishery problems will slip back into the gloom, taking with it the thousands of men and women who continue to languish.
29 January 2007
Home is where the money is
The Fort Mac take on the recent trek by four Atlantic premiers.
While one woman in the crowd complained she was forced to move to Fort McMurray 10 months after the Abitibi paper mill closed in Stephenville, N.L., another transplanted Newfoundlander said he has no desire to return home.
‘‘I think they should go to Newfoundland with empty buses and bring them up here,’’ said Lee Perkins, who’s now in charge of Fort McMurray’s water and sewer lines.
‘‘I’m easily doubling my pay here, and where my university-educated wife and I were working back home, someone had to die or retire for us to move up in our jobs,’’ Perkins said.
Lower Churchill: old news makes news
CBC Radio is quoting a mainland analyst that exporting Lower Churchill power will likely mean an upgrade (expansion) of the electrical power grid in Quebec.
Nothing new in that.
As Bond Papers noted in August 2006, the joint Ontario/Quebec proposal to work with Newfoundland and Labrador on the Lower Churchill included upgrading the transmission capacity across Quebec as well as upgrading the inter-provincial connection. The latter cost, in particular, was to be borne by Ontario and Quebec.
As noted by Bond at the time, all those costs - known and predictable at the time the Premier decided to "go-it-alone" - will now be borne by Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro.
The other option - the $2.0 billion plus underwater route - is apparently also under consideration, as CBC reports in a comment from provincial natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale.
About the only way to deal with this issue and thereby allow the Lower Churchill power to get to market at competitive prices is to get the federal government to underwrite the costs somehow. In October 2006, Bond Papers pointed out that the federal government wasn't interested in loan guarantees for the Lower Churchill, despite what the Premier claims. Rather, the federal interest- if they have any at all - would be in taking an equity stake.
Nothing new in that.
As Bond Papers noted in August 2006, the joint Ontario/Quebec proposal to work with Newfoundland and Labrador on the Lower Churchill included upgrading the transmission capacity across Quebec as well as upgrading the inter-provincial connection. The latter cost, in particular, was to be borne by Ontario and Quebec.
As noted by Bond at the time, all those costs - known and predictable at the time the Premier decided to "go-it-alone" - will now be borne by Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro.
The other option - the $2.0 billion plus underwater route - is apparently also under consideration, as CBC reports in a comment from provincial natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale.
About the only way to deal with this issue and thereby allow the Lower Churchill power to get to market at competitive prices is to get the federal government to underwrite the costs somehow. In October 2006, Bond Papers pointed out that the federal government wasn't interested in loan guarantees for the Lower Churchill, despite what the Premier claims. Rather, the federal interest- if they have any at all - would be in taking an equity stake.
A view from Labrador West
Well, so much for spelling your humble e-scribbler's name correctly.
But at least people are reading.
For the record, here's the original post. Note the update which gives a much less speculative version of things.
Also, here's a chunk of your humble e-scribbler's e-mail to the Aurora's editor in response to the editorial:
But at least people are reading.
For the record, here's the original post. Note the update which gives a much less speculative version of things.
Also, here's a chunk of your humble e-scribbler's e-mail to the Aurora's editor in response to the editorial:
Information from people expert in mines and the issues involved with mines like Scully leads me to believe that the liabilities associated with an aging mine relatively close to shutdown may have led CT to make its decision. Those liabilities are largely undefined but one can readily imagine what they might be.
They might include long-term power costs but they might also involve liabilities related to the shut down of existing operations.
Taken altogether, a company like CT would make an informed decision on whether or not to purchase an existing operation and bring onstream deposits from across the border in Quebec. While the company would not - understandably - discuss specifics, we can get a good idea if we use a little imagination and some informed speculation.
That said, I certainly wouldn't suggest anyone in Labrador west to to take a pessimistic outlook on the future. There is plenty of potential including Bloom Lake. We will all have to wait as the companies involved or potentially involved sort out their plans. CT's announcements shouldn't be seen as a setback, but merely as the companies working through options. In the announcement, CT indicated - and I take it at face value - that they are continuing to explore options. As long as that continues there is reason for hope, and for continued prosperity in one of the strongest economic regions of our province.
A sign of the economic decline
In the midst of Danny Williams' rhapsodizing to The Telegram today (not available online) about how good everything supposedly is in the province, comes this comment:
Now the Premier is talking about achieving that target in 2017 or 2018.
Maybe.
So what changed in the past 18 months?
"We could be contributors to (federal) equalization within a decade. And, we have also been using our wealth to make strategic investments in education, health care, infrastructure and poverty reduction."Only a year or so ago, economists like Wade Locke were talking about Newfoundland and Labrador getting off Equalization - that is, become a "have" province - around 2007 or 2008.
Now the Premier is talking about achieving that target in 2017 or 2018.
Maybe.
So what changed in the past 18 months?
Every bit helps, shurely
Danny Williams didn't waste any time issuing a "news" release proclaiming his trip to Alberta a great success.
Don't look for anything concrete mind you, like a contract.
Nope.
The oil industry in Alberta is looking forward to their buy-sell forum in March which, incidentally, is where NOIA will be focusing much its energy on behalf of its members. NOIA likely figured out that junkets usually don't produce much except the palaver seen thus far.
Danny didn't include NOIA in his entourage for some unfathomable reason.
But I digress.
Speaking of vacuous comment devoid of meaning, though, the official government release quotes a representative of Production Services Network:
Don't look for anything concrete mind you, like a contract.
Nope.
The oil industry in Alberta is looking forward to their buy-sell forum in March which, incidentally, is where NOIA will be focusing much its energy on behalf of its members. NOIA likely figured out that junkets usually don't produce much except the palaver seen thus far.
Danny didn't include NOIA in his entourage for some unfathomable reason.
But I digress.
Speaking of vacuous comment devoid of meaning, though, the official government release quotes a representative of Production Services Network:
"I was very pleased to meet with the business and community leaders of Edmonton and Fort McMurray to discuss ways we can help each other grow our businesses," said Roger Clarke of Production Services Network. "I believe that this mission will provide long term benefit to our company, the oil and gas industry of Newfoundland and Labrador and the economy in general. I thank the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador for this opportunity."Great company with tons of expertise both here and abroad, but it isn't like a former division of Halliburton needs Danny Williams to introduce the company to the oil business.
Turning the clock back on economic development
Q: What's the distance from Newfoundland and Labrador to Alberta?
A: 40 feet.
That's the length of a standard shipping container.
With the slowdown of the oil industry offshore Newfoundland and Labrador, grace a M. Williams, the local supply and service industry association organized a workshop. NOIA has continued to work steadily on promoting the business connections between this province and Alberta. There was a scouting mission in December and there is another workshop coming in March.
Interesting to see in the news coverage from the trek by four Atlantic provincial premiers to Alberta this past week, there were few mentions of the companies the four wise ones were supposedly there to promote.
Well, there is reference in stories about New Brunswick but not much about Newfoundland and Labrador. Stories about this province, like this one from the Edmonton Sun, talk about the potential that will come eventually from industrial development in the easternmost province.
And reading Danny Williams' comments, you'd think were were in 1977 or maybe 1982, listening to Brian Peckford painting pictures of future glory. But those were the days long before there actually was an oil industry in Newfoundland and Labrador.
The problem for Danny Williams is that the oil industry he inherited in 2003 was well-developed, not the green field he seems to imagine it was. Expertise abounds in the local oil patch in everything from the engineering and other supply and service industries to the geologists, engineers and other at the offshore regulatory board. They know the industry here and abroad. Many of the local companies have parleyed their local experience into solid working relationships with the oil majors - Big Oil - and into contracts in the Gulf of Mexico and in central Asia among other places. Even Danny's own company has been known to work overseas for ExxonMobil.
All thanks to the oil and gas industry in the province that was well developed by the time Williams got to the Premier's Office.
In 2003, the local oil industry could look forward to Hebron: $2.0 billion in construction work, the bulk of it coming to this province through the small gravity-base structure the proponents had already selected as the mode of production. They looked at about $10 billion in revenue for the provincial government with - inevitably - more to come from development of adjacent fields.
By 2005/2006, those same companies were looking forward to development of Hibernia South. Even with a limited additional construction work if the companies used tiebacks to produce the oil, there would be tons of other work and a longer life for Hibernia.
According to the most recent statistics from the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board, the addition of the possible and probable reserves at Hibernia would give the project another 20 years of life.
And for the provincial government the bulk of that production would come at a time when provincial royalties would leap from 5% to 30%. The cash for the provincial treasury? Probably as much as Hebron.
Not any more.
Overnight in April 2006, the oil industry in Newfoundland and Labrador went from looking forward to staggering growth to being staggered by the virtual shutdown of activity. Sure, oil will continue to flow and the provincial government coffers will be stuffed with oil money. But at Hibernia, work is already slowing down thanks to government's decision - apparently taken when the Hebron talks failed - to veto any further development.
In early 2006, a company involved in industrial development in Newfoundland and Labrador could look forward to an almost unprecedented series of major work projects. Hebron, then the Long Harbour smelter. Hibernia South tossed in for good measure. As the construction phase of each of those slowed, the Lower Churchill would be running up. A steady period of growth lasting from 2006 up to 2015.
In place of that, there is now nothing but promises of future glory. Strange promises too, since Danny Williams seems to think that all the projects in the slings are being actively pursued. Almost every news story coming from Alberta this past week talked about projects in this province that don't actually exist.
Strange promises, given the very first sentence of the famous Danny Williams plan for Newfoundland and Labrador said that "[o]ur goal is to grow our economy and provide new job opportunities for Newfoundlanders and Labradorians."
There was no mention of resetting the province's economic development clock to 1984.
A: 40 feet.
That's the length of a standard shipping container.
With the slowdown of the oil industry offshore Newfoundland and Labrador, grace a M. Williams, the local supply and service industry association organized a workshop. NOIA has continued to work steadily on promoting the business connections between this province and Alberta. There was a scouting mission in December and there is another workshop coming in March.
Interesting to see in the news coverage from the trek by four Atlantic provincial premiers to Alberta this past week, there were few mentions of the companies the four wise ones were supposedly there to promote.
Well, there is reference in stories about New Brunswick but not much about Newfoundland and Labrador. Stories about this province, like this one from the Edmonton Sun, talk about the potential that will come eventually from industrial development in the easternmost province.
And reading Danny Williams' comments, you'd think were were in 1977 or maybe 1982, listening to Brian Peckford painting pictures of future glory. But those were the days long before there actually was an oil industry in Newfoundland and Labrador.
The problem for Danny Williams is that the oil industry he inherited in 2003 was well-developed, not the green field he seems to imagine it was. Expertise abounds in the local oil patch in everything from the engineering and other supply and service industries to the geologists, engineers and other at the offshore regulatory board. They know the industry here and abroad. Many of the local companies have parleyed their local experience into solid working relationships with the oil majors - Big Oil - and into contracts in the Gulf of Mexico and in central Asia among other places. Even Danny's own company has been known to work overseas for ExxonMobil.
All thanks to the oil and gas industry in the province that was well developed by the time Williams got to the Premier's Office.
In 2003, the local oil industry could look forward to Hebron: $2.0 billion in construction work, the bulk of it coming to this province through the small gravity-base structure the proponents had already selected as the mode of production. They looked at about $10 billion in revenue for the provincial government with - inevitably - more to come from development of adjacent fields.
By 2005/2006, those same companies were looking forward to development of Hibernia South. Even with a limited additional construction work if the companies used tiebacks to produce the oil, there would be tons of other work and a longer life for Hibernia.
According to the most recent statistics from the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board, the addition of the possible and probable reserves at Hibernia would give the project another 20 years of life.
And for the provincial government the bulk of that production would come at a time when provincial royalties would leap from 5% to 30%. The cash for the provincial treasury? Probably as much as Hebron.
Not any more.
Overnight in April 2006, the oil industry in Newfoundland and Labrador went from looking forward to staggering growth to being staggered by the virtual shutdown of activity. Sure, oil will continue to flow and the provincial government coffers will be stuffed with oil money. But at Hibernia, work is already slowing down thanks to government's decision - apparently taken when the Hebron talks failed - to veto any further development.
"But the goal is to stagger the projects so people don't have a job for 18 months and then have to turn around and leave the province again," Williams added.That was the goal, or at least the expectation.
In early 2006, a company involved in industrial development in Newfoundland and Labrador could look forward to an almost unprecedented series of major work projects. Hebron, then the Long Harbour smelter. Hibernia South tossed in for good measure. As the construction phase of each of those slowed, the Lower Churchill would be running up. A steady period of growth lasting from 2006 up to 2015.
In place of that, there is now nothing but promises of future glory. Strange promises too, since Danny Williams seems to think that all the projects in the slings are being actively pursued. Almost every news story coming from Alberta this past week talked about projects in this province that don't actually exist.
Strange promises, given the very first sentence of the famous Danny Williams plan for Newfoundland and Labrador said that "[o]ur goal is to grow our economy and provide new job opportunities for Newfoundlanders and Labradorians."
There was no mention of resetting the province's economic development clock to 1984.
28 January 2007
Building the New Jerusalem - eventually
Interesting that Premier Danny Williams spent a lot of time during his trip out west telling people about the oil, gas and hydro-electric projects under development in Newfoundland and Labrador.
Odd that people in this province wouldn't know what the heck he is talking about.
In Newfoundland and Labrador, the last poll showed the economy was the number one issue for people in the province.
62% of those polled disapproved of Danny's handling of the economy.
There's good reason for their view:
Hebron is dead.
Hibernia South is not completely dead but Carnell's is warming up the hearse as we speak.
Yes, the Lower Churchill is being studied but until Danny can come up with $9.0 billion, it remains exactly the same as the Frank Moores development 30 years ago: a promise.
There are no gas projects under development since there is no gas royalty regime. Government has been sitting on that for a decade, although there is a possibility Danny Williams will finally issue it sometime this year.
There is a liquid natural gas plant being studied for Placentia Bay but studies don't count. Ditto the oil refinery study.
Outside of the CVRD smelter/refinery for Voisey's Bay that CVRD wants to fast-track, there isn't anything in the development pipeline. Danny stopped it all.
So what is the Premier talking about?
Only he knows, apparently, like only he knows about this fish plant collapse thing he kept to himself.
Interestingly enough, Danny Williams talks about having an economy here in about 10 years.
That's interesting because Danny won't be around in 10 years. He'll be out of office in three, satisfied at progress and off to some new adventure. That is, if he isn't out by Easter frustrated at all the scandals and resignations in his administration. (That was the mood in early January, people; it could come back.)
Williams' "10 year" comment is interesting because three years ago he said it would take him two terms - eight years - to start producing results. Now with five years to run on that promise, he suddenly slides the time scale back to another decade from now. Danny Williams is always ready for a better tomorrow. Seems like the farther away tomorrow is, the better.
What's most interesting of all though, is that if Williams had been able to close the deal on Hebron, done his job on Hibernia South and produced the energy plan already - as other governments have done before him - we wouldn't be looking at a decade before people could think about maybe returning home.
Nope.
Things would be happening right now.
Instead, Danny Williams is still talking about how good things will be in his New Jerusalem.
Eventually.
Odd that people in this province wouldn't know what the heck he is talking about.
In Newfoundland and Labrador, the last poll showed the economy was the number one issue for people in the province.
62% of those polled disapproved of Danny's handling of the economy.
There's good reason for their view:
Hebron is dead.
Hibernia South is not completely dead but Carnell's is warming up the hearse as we speak.
Yes, the Lower Churchill is being studied but until Danny can come up with $9.0 billion, it remains exactly the same as the Frank Moores development 30 years ago: a promise.
There are no gas projects under development since there is no gas royalty regime. Government has been sitting on that for a decade, although there is a possibility Danny Williams will finally issue it sometime this year.
There is a liquid natural gas plant being studied for Placentia Bay but studies don't count. Ditto the oil refinery study.
Outside of the CVRD smelter/refinery for Voisey's Bay that CVRD wants to fast-track, there isn't anything in the development pipeline. Danny stopped it all.
So what is the Premier talking about?
Only he knows, apparently, like only he knows about this fish plant collapse thing he kept to himself.
Interestingly enough, Danny Williams talks about having an economy here in about 10 years.
That's interesting because Danny won't be around in 10 years. He'll be out of office in three, satisfied at progress and off to some new adventure. That is, if he isn't out by Easter frustrated at all the scandals and resignations in his administration. (That was the mood in early January, people; it could come back.)
Williams' "10 year" comment is interesting because three years ago he said it would take him two terms - eight years - to start producing results. Now with five years to run on that promise, he suddenly slides the time scale back to another decade from now. Danny Williams is always ready for a better tomorrow. Seems like the farther away tomorrow is, the better.
What's most interesting of all though, is that if Williams had been able to close the deal on Hebron, done his job on Hibernia South and produced the energy plan already - as other governments have done before him - we wouldn't be looking at a decade before people could think about maybe returning home.
Nope.
Things would be happening right now.
Instead, Danny Williams is still talking about how good things will be in his New Jerusalem.
Eventually.
CVRD looking to speed up Long Harbour
This report from the Toronto Star states CVRD is looking to speed up construction of its Long Harbour smelter/refinery to bring it on line before 2011.
Absolutely no sign though, that the company wants to build a second refinery in Labrador.
Wonder where some people get strange ideas like that?
Of course!
They make them up.
Absolutely no sign though, that the company wants to build a second refinery in Labrador.
Wonder where some people get strange ideas like that?
Of course!
They make them up.
Quarterback Harper: Game on!
It's SuperBowl Sunday and what better day to launch a political campaign.
The Globe is reporting the Connies, led by Stephen Harper, will be taking the field with a series of what sound like attack ads.
Yes, the Prime Minister who decries other people's attacks will reportedly "mock Stephane Dion's leadership abilities." If ever there was a more obvious admission that the Connies are just a tad afraid of Dion, this would be it.
Of course, attack ads are nothing new for Stephen Harper. This is the same prime minister who brought you "balloon fear". The link is dead - no point in reminding people of your hypocrisy - but you'll get a reminder of previous Connie negative ads from the rest of the post. Of course, Connie advertising tends to be completely ineffectual, especially between campaigns as this post from August 2005 will remind you.
Anyway, we can all know that the 2007 election campaign is on, whether we go to the polls this spring or sometime in the fall.
The first run of campaign ads tells me so.
The Globe is reporting the Connies, led by Stephen Harper, will be taking the field with a series of what sound like attack ads.
Yes, the Prime Minister who decries other people's attacks will reportedly "mock Stephane Dion's leadership abilities." If ever there was a more obvious admission that the Connies are just a tad afraid of Dion, this would be it.
Of course, attack ads are nothing new for Stephen Harper. This is the same prime minister who brought you "balloon fear". The link is dead - no point in reminding people of your hypocrisy - but you'll get a reminder of previous Connie negative ads from the rest of the post. Of course, Connie advertising tends to be completely ineffectual, especially between campaigns as this post from August 2005 will remind you.
Anyway, we can all know that the 2007 election campaign is on, whether we go to the polls this spring or sometime in the fall.
The first run of campaign ads tells me so.
27 January 2007
Fishery reform needed: scientist
Sometimes it takes an extreme presentation to grab attention.
Not so any more, but many will likely scoff at the idea that entire species will disappear within the next half century if we continue not just current fishing practices but also our overall approach to the marine environment. You can find a summary of Worm's collaborative work with other scientists here and the complete paper, from the magazine Science, here.
This is not Worm's first foray into this research area . In 2003, he authored a paper with Dr. Ransom Myers on the decline of predatory fish species, including cod. They concluded, among other things, that "the global ocean has lost more than 90% of large predatory fishes."
The chart [right] demonstrates the rapid decline of biomass on the southern Grand Banks, but this is only one of
several areas showing a dramatic and rapid biomass depletion in the same relatively short space of time. [left]
Undoubtedly some, predictable, voices will rush forward to blame the entire thing on the federal government and demand compensation for what has been done to "our" fishery. They will note Worm's comments - quoted in the Globe - about Iceland's handline fishery for cod and likely use that as a further argument against the supposedly evil federal government.
What these voices miss - aside from, in one case, complicity in destroying local cod stocks through overfishing - is that the changes required in local fishing practices go far beyond the transient issues of who owns a fish processing company in this province or how many fish processors can work for poverty wages, topped off with federal hand-outs.
The fish processing sector in Newfoundland and Labrador has long employed considerably more people than needed. That economic demand was one of several factors that contributed to the intense fishing pressure placed on stocks throughout the last half of the 20th century. That demand continued right up to the cod moratorium in 1992.
The demand for quota is no less driven by the pressure from fish harvesters in all sizes of vessels. The current fishing management system - evolved over 50 years - continues to press harvesters to harvest more, to increase pressure on new species such as shrimp, and generally to contribute to the drastic decline noted by Myers and Worm. The demand to keep all plants open, the constant cry for a food fishery - and a commercial fishery on a damaged stock like cod - are all indications that many in Newfoundland and Labrador simply have not grasped the magnitude of the problem nor the folly of their own efforts.
Neither the federal nor provincial governments alone or together decimated fish stocks. The current state of the fishery in Newfoundland and Labrador was driven by many factors. Fixing the problem will take a deliberate effort in which established interest will have to be put aside.
The answer does not lie in simply copying Iceland's hook and line fishery. Neither does it rest with developing a collective marketing effort: surely better advertising is a suggestion from people who truly have no grasp of the issue at hand. Nor does the answer lie in encouraging migrant labour for local fishplants. Such actions are simplistic.
Changes needed in the Newfoundland and Labrador fishery will be sweeping and touch every aspect of both current operations and our collective attitudes toward the industry. it will require leadership from politicians and others in the community with a clear-eyed view of both the problem and the solution - or at least the way to achieve a solution.
Sadly, there seems to be no one in Newfoundland and Labrador - neither in the government, the opposition, the union or among processors - who can provide that leadership. We may be in as desperate a spot as we were nearly a century ago when one man's ideas for reform were rejected across the board in the then-country of Newfoundland, only to adopted elsewhere with great success.
At least then, someone in Newfoundland and Labrador seemed to have a clue about what to do.
Boris Worm, co-author of a controversial report that projects the collapse of all of the world's commercially fished stocks within 50 years, said there is still a chance for already fragile fisheries to rebound if certain measures are introduced.Only two decades ago, the idea of species collapse would have had Dr. Worm laughed off the podium right after the guy who said Men in Black was a documentary.
Not so any more, but many will likely scoff at the idea that entire species will disappear within the next half century if we continue not just current fishing practices but also our overall approach to the marine environment. You can find a summary of Worm's collaborative work with other scientists here and the complete paper, from the magazine Science, here.
This is not Worm's first foray into this research area . In 2003, he authored a paper with Dr. Ransom Myers on the decline of predatory fish species, including cod. They concluded, among other things, that "the global ocean has lost more than 90% of large predatory fishes."
The chart [right] demonstrates the rapid decline of biomass on the southern Grand Banks, but this is only one of
several areas showing a dramatic and rapid biomass depletion in the same relatively short space of time. [left]Undoubtedly some, predictable, voices will rush forward to blame the entire thing on the federal government and demand compensation for what has been done to "our" fishery. They will note Worm's comments - quoted in the Globe - about Iceland's handline fishery for cod and likely use that as a further argument against the supposedly evil federal government.
What these voices miss - aside from, in one case, complicity in destroying local cod stocks through overfishing - is that the changes required in local fishing practices go far beyond the transient issues of who owns a fish processing company in this province or how many fish processors can work for poverty wages, topped off with federal hand-outs.
The fish processing sector in Newfoundland and Labrador has long employed considerably more people than needed. That economic demand was one of several factors that contributed to the intense fishing pressure placed on stocks throughout the last half of the 20th century. That demand continued right up to the cod moratorium in 1992.
The demand for quota is no less driven by the pressure from fish harvesters in all sizes of vessels. The current fishing management system - evolved over 50 years - continues to press harvesters to harvest more, to increase pressure on new species such as shrimp, and generally to contribute to the drastic decline noted by Myers and Worm. The demand to keep all plants open, the constant cry for a food fishery - and a commercial fishery on a damaged stock like cod - are all indications that many in Newfoundland and Labrador simply have not grasped the magnitude of the problem nor the folly of their own efforts.
Neither the federal nor provincial governments alone or together decimated fish stocks. The current state of the fishery in Newfoundland and Labrador was driven by many factors. Fixing the problem will take a deliberate effort in which established interest will have to be put aside.
The answer does not lie in simply copying Iceland's hook and line fishery. Neither does it rest with developing a collective marketing effort: surely better advertising is a suggestion from people who truly have no grasp of the issue at hand. Nor does the answer lie in encouraging migrant labour for local fishplants. Such actions are simplistic.
Changes needed in the Newfoundland and Labrador fishery will be sweeping and touch every aspect of both current operations and our collective attitudes toward the industry. it will require leadership from politicians and others in the community with a clear-eyed view of both the problem and the solution - or at least the way to achieve a solution.
Sadly, there seems to be no one in Newfoundland and Labrador - neither in the government, the opposition, the union or among processors - who can provide that leadership. We may be in as desperate a spot as we were nearly a century ago when one man's ideas for reform were rejected across the board in the then-country of Newfoundland, only to adopted elsewhere with great success.
At least then, someone in Newfoundland and Labrador seemed to have a clue about what to do.
Fish processing dead in five years: Danny Williams
Right at the start of a story on Danny Williams trek to Alberta to hug something, came this curious comment:
The fish processing sector in this province needs to shrink in size and find new ways of lowering costs. Importing migrant labour to split fish while government policy creates migrant labourers of our own people isn't the solution.
In fact, that just makes the overcapacity in the processing sector - a chronic problem since the 1950s and 1960s - a continuing problem rather than one we solve for once and for all. We need to start treating the fishery like a business, not a social welfare program.
Danny Williams has some explaining to do when he gets back from hugging Alberta.
Williams certainly needs to explain his government's fish processing policy.
And while he's at it, maybe the suddenly touchy-feely Premier can hug up to a microphone and explain why he never mentioned this imminent collapse thing before now.
Not like he hasn't had say three years and a fisheriesbullshit waste-of-time session summit to do it.
The East Coast fish processing industry will collapse in five years if they can't attract overseas workers, Premier Williams said.Just open the borders, Danny? Surely you can't be serious.
"We have to open up our borders as soon as possible."
The fish processing sector in this province needs to shrink in size and find new ways of lowering costs. Importing migrant labour to split fish while government policy creates migrant labourers of our own people isn't the solution.
In fact, that just makes the overcapacity in the processing sector - a chronic problem since the 1950s and 1960s - a continuing problem rather than one we solve for once and for all. We need to start treating the fishery like a business, not a social welfare program.
Danny Williams has some explaining to do when he gets back from hugging Alberta.Williams certainly needs to explain his government's fish processing policy.
And while he's at it, maybe the suddenly touchy-feely Premier can hug up to a microphone and explain why he never mentioned this imminent collapse thing before now.
Not like he hasn't had say three years and a fisheries
-srbp-
Gordon Pinsent's hometown on block?
Abitibi Consolidated is looking for cost-savings at one of its most expensive mills in North America.
Problem is - as in the past - no one will want to save any cash. in the story above, the union head doesn't want lay-offs.
In this news release from Danny Williams' natural resources mouthpiece, we get the threat that if Abitibi closes one of its two paper machines at Grand Falls, they can expect to shut the whole mill.
Roger Grimes originally made that threat and amended the legislation to allow the provincial government to revoke access to timber.
No fibre.
No mill.
No one took Grimes seriously because of the jobs lost, cash to the economy and...well, the prospect of the company suing the government for taking it out of business for no good reason. Roger Grimes was many things but he wasn't given to thinking and acting irrationally.
The difference in this case is that Danny Williams has shown his willingness to kill more than one project - and all the jobs - if he is in the mood at the moment. We are all too familiar with the routine, right down to the trips to Alberta to talk about the homing pigeons and embracing that province's economic miracle.
So we might just be saying goodbye to a second paper mill in the province in a little over a year, not because the mill can't run but because nobody wants to deal with the problem at hand in a sensible, rational manner.
Or, if the current Premier lives up to his brand, because the company took a difficult but necessary business decision - close No. 7 machine - and Danny pulled the trigger on the whole mill just because he could.
Let's hope people start talking sense soon, the provincial government included, for a change.
Otherwise, Gordon Pinsent's home town could become yet another ghost town, and there'd be no one to blame but...well, you know.
Problem is - as in the past - no one will want to save any cash. in the story above, the union head doesn't want lay-offs.
In this news release from Danny Williams' natural resources mouthpiece, we get the threat that if Abitibi closes one of its two paper machines at Grand Falls, they can expect to shut the whole mill.
Roger Grimes originally made that threat and amended the legislation to allow the provincial government to revoke access to timber.
No fibre.
No mill.
No one took Grimes seriously because of the jobs lost, cash to the economy and...well, the prospect of the company suing the government for taking it out of business for no good reason. Roger Grimes was many things but he wasn't given to thinking and acting irrationally.
The difference in this case is that Danny Williams has shown his willingness to kill more than one project - and all the jobs - if he is in the mood at the moment. We are all too familiar with the routine, right down to the trips to Alberta to talk about the homing pigeons and embracing that province's economic miracle.
So we might just be saying goodbye to a second paper mill in the province in a little over a year, not because the mill can't run but because nobody wants to deal with the problem at hand in a sensible, rational manner.
Or, if the current Premier lives up to his brand, because the company took a difficult but necessary business decision - close No. 7 machine - and Danny pulled the trigger on the whole mill just because he could.
Let's hope people start talking sense soon, the provincial government included, for a change.
Otherwise, Gordon Pinsent's home town could become yet another ghost town, and there'd be no one to blame but...well, you know.
26 January 2007
Did you say rheume?
Obviously the French socialist party knows it doesn't stand a hope in hell now that its candidate has shown herself to be hopelessly inept twice in one week.
The latest: falling for a comedian posing as Jean Charest and endorsing Corsican independence.
Here's an English language take on it.
She probably thought he said Inspector Clouseau was calling on the telefoon.
The latest: falling for a comedian posing as Jean Charest and endorsing Corsican independence.
Here's an English language take on it.
She probably thought he said Inspector Clouseau was calling on the telefoon.
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