Betraying our own potential

Danny Williams is angry with Stephen Harper. Williams sees Harper not living up to a commitment, of "betraying" Newfoundland and Labrador.

Fair enough.

While his latest news release doesn't put a dollar value on the loss to this province, in the past he's said the province will receive $200 million less under the proposed Equalization changes each year compared with what it would be receiving. The cap on transfer payments included in the new Equalization formula is the key to Williams' ire since it supposedly limits how much money the provincial government can get.

The larger problem here is not a prime minister who says one thing before an election and then does something else later on once he's in office. That happens, sometimes for perfidy, sometimes because political and economic circumstances demand it.

The larger problem is that our provincial government - since at least 2001 - has become obsessed with maximizing federal hand-outs to our poor province, as the common description would put it.

Look at it another way.

Danny Williams is upset at the supposed loss of about $400 per capita per year. $200 million works out to be $400 for every person in our province of roughly 500,000 people.

Yes, there are numbers and math involved, but it is actually very simple to follow the logic.

The Hebron development was pegged by economist Wade Locke as offering $10 billion of revenue for the provincial government over the 20 year lifespan of the project. He gave a range of $8 billion to $10 billion, but for our purposes let's take the larger number. Let's allow for developing the whole thing as opposed to just one of the fields.

That works out to $1000 per capita over two decades.

Consider the Hibernia South development and its 300 million barrels of oil, virtually all of which would be extracted when provincial royalties are at 30%, as opposed to the 7% the provincial government currently makes.

If we allow for oil at an average of $45 per barrel over 15 years, that field development works out to bring $540 per capita into provincial coffers.

Put it together and we have almost $1600 per capita in provincial revenues, all of which flows untouched into the provincial bank account to be spent as the provincial government sees fit.

That's four times - that's right, four times - the amount Danny Williams is in a snit over.

That amount doesn't include other developments in the economy, like new mines in Labrador. It doesn't include any other economic development at all. It also doesn't include the spin-off benefits that would come, inevitably, from the new investment coming from a healthy, growing economy. Like renewed interest in exploring for oil offshore Newfoundland and developing gas resources off Labrador.

Success breeds success and moving two large industrial projects forward last year would have branded this province as a place to invest in.

That $1600 per capita would give Newfoundland and Labrador a fiscal capacity on par with Ontario. We might wind up losing Equalization hand-outs by 2012 when the fields would have been fully running, but in the meantime, extra cash - in addition to the $1600 per capita - would have flowed through the Equalization program and through the Atlantic Accord (1985) and the later deal.

Some will object that what is involved in this scenario is converting a non-renewable asset into cash. Once it's gone, it's gone.

Absolutely true.

But that is exactly what Norway and Alberta have done with great success.

Those governments have made a conscious decision to take some of their oil and gas revenues and put the cash in the bank. If that didn't happen, they paid down public debt or built long-term infrastructure. As their economies grew, they were able to do all three, in addition to spending money to provide day-to-day services.

There's no reason Newfoundland and Labrador couldn't do the same thing.

Given the amount of money flowing from those developments, the provincial government could easily devote $400 per capita - 25% of the total - to debt reduction, for example.

After 20 years, the provincial direct debt would be half of what it is right now. As debt reduces, the cost of servicing that debt would reduce, thereby freeing up more cash for infrastructure, savings or whatever else we need to spend the money on.

Success - and some responsible government policy - would breed success. Success and sound policy would turn an asset into other assets.

There's no reason not to follow this scenario, except that provincial politicians of all stripes just don't get the logic. They are trapped in political rhetoric from before Confederation that looks like it works. Actually, it doesn't do anything in the long haul except to ensure that the problems of today remain the problems of the future.

Some will reject this sort of proposition because no one else is saying it. Well, the truth is that many politicians and other opinion leaders are not saying anything even close to it. That doesn't make their version true; it just means they prefer the simplistic rhetoric over simple logic and basic economics.

Others will reject the idea because they don't trust the numbers. It can't be that simple and obvious, they claim. The numbers are real. One recently elected politician questioned Bond Papers' numbers for just that reason. And it that obvious.

Part of the larger problem with the rhetoric coming from this administration and previous administrations of other political stripes is that is focuses on the negative. People start to accept that the people of the province are always hard done by. They see betrayal in everything done by others. They accept that "we cannot sign good deals."

The evidence to the contrary is all around us both in past economic deals like the offshore and Voisey's Bay. It's also found in the private sector in a raft of small and medium sized manufacturing companies. It can be seen easily in a company like Fortis.

The real betrayal here is the betrayal of our own potential that comes from the corrosive messages our own leaders tell us about the state of our province and its future.

We focus on the 25% and ignore the 75%.

We focus on the limitations of the cap if we stay on federal hand-outs and ignore the unlimited potential if we take another path.

All it takes to change is to change our thinking.

We just need to look at the problem another way.

Jim and Danny head-to-head

When is a fight not a fight?

When it's a fight.

Lono hits it on the head

Offal News does another fine job of dissecting the Equalization issue, with a post titled "Williams spits nickels".

Yet this Williams administration would rather fight for more equalisation than make the moves necessary to generate income from the resources we have. Hebron, just as one very small example, has been estimated to provide government revenues of $400-500million per year and thousands of jobs across this province. Out of pique, this government continues to refuse to go back to the negotiating table and to make a deal.

And now Premier Williams expects the rest of this country to subsidize his colossal error in judgment and his failure to close this, or any other, economic development deal. Out of pride, he says.

That's a definition of pride to which I have difficulty subscribing.

Amen, brother.

Amen.

Harper jams Williams

Forget what you heard Jim Flaherty say yesterday about a revised Equalization system that was formula-based and fair and really forget the criticisms the federal Conservatives made of Equalization side deals and caps.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper did all that yesterday.

Overnight, it's been confirmed that Newfoundland and Labrador and Nova Scotia will be getting an Equalization side deal. Both provinces will have the choice of contuing under the old Equalization program - five provinces, 100% resource revenues plus the offshore deals on oil and gas royalties - or opt into a system they have rejected.

Either way, there is a functional limit on how much cash they get through Equalization.

Under the side deal, the cap consists of the limited number of provinces used to calculate the average plus the offshore offsets deals only cover royalties, not all revenues from the source.

Under the new version of Equalization, the cap is explicitly in place.

This approach is mentioned in the background document issued yesterday but until the PM's letter, it wasn't something that leaped out.

To respect the Offshore Accords, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador may continue to operate under the previous Equalization system until their existing offshore agreements expire.

Turns out Danny is screwed and blued. The only thing left is to get out the ink and needles.

Harper signals side deal with Williams?

The Prime Minister issued a news release this evening that describes a letter to Premier Danny Williams about the federal budget.

In the release, there is an odd statement:

Newfoundland and Labrador will continue to receive the full benefits provided under its offshore Accord, without a cap, while keeping the Equalization regime it had when it signed those Accords.

The first part of that sentence is fine, since the federal budget does not alter the wording of the bilateral agreement signed in either 1985 or in 2005.

But...

There is no way for Newfoundland and Labrador to keep the Equalization scheme that existed in 2005 without the current federal administration signing a side deal with Newfoundland and Labrador to make it happen or for the federal government to create an Equalization system that works one way for nine provinces and another way for Newfoundland and Labrador.

In other words, Harper's release would have Newfoundland and Labrador's Equalization entitlement calculated under a five province standard with 100% of resource revenues included. The offsets deals then cut in to figure out Equalization without oil revenues but based on a five province standard, not the 10 province one to be used under the Flaherty 2007 budget.

The 2005 agreement specifically states that the provincial Equalization offset will be calculated using the formula in existence at the time, i.e. the year of the Equalization payment, not the year the deal was signed.

Simply put: Harper can't reform Equalization as proposed in today's budget, i.e. create a formula driven system that is fair and equitable to all, and at the same time create what amounts to a side deal with one province.

Most likely answer: someone in the PMO comms office needs a quick lesson in the English language not to mention Equalization.

Outside possibility: Harper is really trying to jam Danny into a corner.

Equalization changes in summary

The federal budget contains few, if any, surprises when it comes to dealing with the so-called fiscal imbalance.

The Flaherty budget will make the following changes to Equalization:

- Reintroduce a formula based on all 10 provinces. That will have the effect of raising the amount of money in the system overall. The current system, in place since 1982 uses five provinces to determine the standard.

- Reduce the formula from 33 bases to a mere five. That will make the system much easier to figure out.

- Exclude 50% of resource revenues from the calculations. That's not what Harper promised for two elections in a row but it is exactly what an expert panel recommended. Right now 100% of all resource revenues are included in calculating Equalization entitlements. That's the system Danny Williams wanted to continue when he wrote his letter to the federal party leaders during the last election.

- Provinces can opt to take whichever is greater of the 50% exclusion or the 100% exclusion of non-renewable revenues only. Again, that isn't what they promised but that option is specifically designed to deal with Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador. Note the last sentence in the paragraph below. It is clearly designed to have the provinces opt into Equalization and abandon the offshore deals.

Fulfilling the Commitment to Respect the Offshore Accords

To respect the Offshore Accords, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador may continue to operate under the previous Equalization system until their existing offshore agreements expire. This fulfills and builds upon the Government’s commitment to respect the Offshore Accords and ensures that these provinces will continue to receive the full benefit that they are entitled to under the previous system. These provinces can permanently opt into the new Equalization system at any point in the future. [Emphasis added]

- Cap transfers such that no province can have a fiscal capacity in excess of Ontario. Equalization is intended to give all provinces in the country comparable fiscal capacity and thereby ensure that all Canadians have access to similar levels of service no matter where they live. One of the complaints from non-recipient provinces has been that the combination of federal transfers can actually produce a situation where recipient provinces - like Newfoundland and Labrador - have a greater capacity than most non-recipient provinces.

The combination of all federal transfers - Equalization, health, post-secondary, social transfer and infrastructure - will give Newfoundland and Labrador about $1.5 billion in federal transfers over four years. Specifically, the amounts are as follows:

2005: $1.554 billion
2006: $1.453 billion
2007: $1.529 billion
2008: $1.554 billion

Links for Liam

Just for the resident anti-Castro crusader, some links to live by.

Or live for, since apparently anything vaguely positive about Cuba induces a form of apoplexy seen only in Cuban immigrants in Dade county.

1. Granma, official organ of the Cuban communist party. Keep up to date on the latest news from Cuba. Perfect gift for the rant-inclined.

2. Che lives! A website devoted to all things Ernesto.

3. Some facts on Canada-Cuba cooperation. From the Government of Canada. The one currently run by Liam's favourite national party. Your humble e-scribbler never knew the name of the cow praised by Granma and The Muse in 1982. Until now, that is.

4. A 1998 news release from the provincial government heralding economic ties between Newfoundland and Cuba. Undoubtedly, proof of the Liberal plot.

5. Waiting for Fidel. The landmark 1974 laugh riot starring Joe Smallwood, Fidel Castro and Erich Honecker, right, and introducing starlet Geoff Sterling in his first big screen role.

Cuba-Ireland connections? Let's leave those for another time. There are so many they need a post of their own.

Mercer, Golfman and Afghanistan: good for circ if nothing else

Since January, the pretentious weekly The Independent has been embroiled in a debate between columnist Noreen Golfman and nationally known comedian Rick Mercer.

It started with a January column by Golfman, a professor in the English department at memorial University. Golfman took great issue with the media coverage of Canadian soldiers serving in Afghanistan. The tone of the entire piece is smarmy and condescending and whatever substantive discussion she may have hoped to spark was lost behind vacuous lines like this one:

Every time you opened a newspaper or listened to the news, especially on the CBC, you were compelled to reach for the box of tissues. If it wasn’t a story about some poor sod’s legs being blown off then it was an extended interview with some dead soldier’s parents. Indulging in another bite of dark chocolate was meant to be more painful this year. Here, have a plate of guilt with your second helping, my dear, and pass the self-reproach.

Incidentally, don't bother looking for that column at the Indy website. For some reason, only Mercer's rejoinder made it to the Internet courtesy of the newspaper itself. Someone did type it and posted it at army.ca. That column, like most of Golfman's stuff is relegated to the second section of the paper and rarely is selected for posting in an electronic version.

In any event, Golfman's comments on the war itself are confined to a simple statement of what she perceives as fact but which is entirely arguable on every point:

It is another to report on their presence in that unfamiliar place without so much as a hint that they don’t belong there, that the campaign to restore order and keep the Taliban from returning to power might be doomed, that blood is obviously begetting blood and that Canadians, and especially the Newfoundlanders who comprise such a disproportionate percentage of the overseas troops (compare with the number of African-Americans fighting in the doomed project of Viet Nam), are destined to return in body bags.

It is crucial to appreciate that this is the sum total of Golfman's attempts to discuss the substance of the issue, namely the mission in Afghanistan, its likelihood of success and its possible cost. It is crucial because Golfman's piece very clearly looks like it was supposed to discussing the inadequate coverage of the entire Afghan piece. Instead, it settled for sneering. Instead, Golfman opted for a ridiculous piece of Ship Inn sociology - catch the Vietnam thing? - that one would not even expect from a second year undergraduate, let alone the associate dean of graduate studies .

Get that point under your belt quickly, though. In subsequent utterances, usually by Golfman's editor Ryan Cleary, we are told that the piece was about the next subject Golfman turned her sights on, namely celebrities who head off to Afghanistan to entertain the troops.

Golfman dismissed them as follows:

Which leads me to kick at another sacred cow--that is, Rick Mercer and that whole lot of star Newfoundlanders who went over to entertain Our Boys (and Girls) over Christmas, reportedly flown to unmarked destinations and, presumably, forced to share some dehydrated food and wear really ugly clothing for a few days.

Golfman does a fine job of predicting that she would be criticized for her comments. Perhaps she felt them brave. But predicting criticism does not elevate her column to the status of a watershed commentary that would spark sudden introspection.

Golfman did not go out on a limb to criticise Mercer. She did so deliberately to take a swipe at a very successful local comedian who has gotten to where he is, like so many others, without remaining in this province and staring at Confederation Building until it hands out cash.

If she wanted to go out on a limb - i.e take a genuinely principled and brave position - she'd take issue with many in the local arts community who, while they ought to be critical of any government in the province, instead get weepy and tug their forelocks in gratitude for crumbs from the Crown. She'd take a smack at the second-rate historical fantasy her neo-nationalist friends pass off as fact.

Of course, none of that that would get Noreen invited back to the fetes run by the circle she moves in, including the odd government-sponsored logo celebration.

Taking the odd nasty phone call or e-mail from a nutjob is par for the course for anybody with a public profile - media people included. Most don't swoon, even figuratively, about the supposed price they pay for their "bravery" in the face of calls from idiots.

Bravery would be nailing the genuine sacred cow in this piece. Mercer and his colleagues do it with every trip to Kandahar or with every socially responsible commentary Mercer makes each week. He's earned his progressive stripes, for those who feel that is important. Mercer's opinions are not determined by what is ruled to be cool by his crowd.

Would that the same could be said of Golfman, who at times seems to relish her ties to the League of Professional Baymen more than those of us with one foot scarcely out of the red-soles.

Golfman smacked at Rick. Little did she know that what she would get back was a sharply worded, eloquent rejoinder to her pretentious tripe. Mercer's 1500 word riposte hit Golfman squarely where it hurts - in the pomposity. Mercer took on each of her points, demonstrating exactly how shallow her original column had been.

Turns out Rick bested Golfman in every dimension, right down to the tone of the column itself. He knows how to skewer without pretension.

It didn't take a doctoral degree to do the job.

In the end, that must have been the thing that stung worst of all.

_______________________________

Portions of this post appeared, in edited form, as a comment on towniebastard. They are repeated here, slightly edited, since a good rant should not be wasted.

Promoted to glory: Bruce Winsor, 1926-2007

Bruce Winsor passed away on Thursday, March 15, 2007. He was buried today from the St. John's Temple of the Salvation Army.

I knew Bruce for a great many years since he was the uncle of my best friends. It wasn't until much later that I got to know him better. In 2003, he agreed to an interview about his experience with the Canadian Army in Korea. What was supposed to be an hour or so turned into an afternoon of reminiscence and reflection.

That interview became a piece posted here for Remembrance Day, 2005. I found out afterwards that there were stories he shared with me that he had not mentioned to friends or family in the 51 years since he returned from Korea.

Some of those stories found their way into the piece; many others, especially ones that were more deeply personal will remain locked away in respect of the confidence in which they were shared.

Bruce Winsor was a Christian. His profound and abiding faith gave him the steadfastness to weather the trials which came to his own life. The security that came from his faith - of having anchored his soul in the haven of rest - allowed him to help others through their travails.

He was a rare man who, as his brother-in-law Edsel Bonnell said in his tribute at the funeral service, loved his family and his church and showed it in every action, every day of his long life. Edsel's tribute was eloquent, as anyone who knows him would expect, but his task in delivering the tribute was aided by the simple eloquence of Bruce's life.

Municipal campaign shenanigans costly

Take a gander at this story involving a former St. John's city councillor, charges of mischief, withholding information from the police and generally a tale that raises many more questions about the case than the trial will resolve.

But here's a bit of perspective for pure contrast: the total cost incurred by the former councillor to deal with the damage was $160.

About five years ago, your humble e-scribbler had his credit card lifted from his jacket as it hung in the closet at his office. There were a limited number of suspects and the credit card company confirmed that $300 worth of groceries were charged to the card at a supermarket within walking distance of my office at the time.

There were security cameras in the supermarket.

There were three likely suspects of which one could be eliminated almost right away. The police had good physical descriptions and complete current contact information since the suspects were being interviewed for a job when the theft occurred.

The police response was much less than enthusiastic and little - if anything - was done beyond filling out the mandatory forms.

In the municipal shenanigan's case - involving $160 - there was repeated attention from the police, regular contact with the candidate, fingerprint evidence taken and analysed at a lab on the mainland and now a trial involving a prosecutor being shipped in from central Newfoundland to handle what may well be a lost cause for the Crown.

There's more on the case at Meeker on media.

Scotia Economics confirms NL economic projections

Add Scotia Economics to the list of economic prognosticators showing the Newfoundland and Labrador economy going from leading the nation this year to trailing it next year.

While the latest provincial projections show 2007 to be leding the country in real GDP growth (4.0% estimated), SE shows the province as posting 1.5% real GDP growth next year.

Confusion reigns in Alberta

What exactly is the Government of Alberta's position on Equalization?

Does anyone know?

Does anyone care?

Randomly Generating Laughs

Responsible Government League's Liam O'Brien tears into the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation for a story on the CBC website about Cuban elections.

He titled the piece "Castro's Broadcasting Corporation" and then uses the piece to launch into a tirade about Castro (fair enough) and the CBC.

That's where things get hysterically funny, but only because Liam made the biggest knee-jerk reaction in a while:

The CBC reporter is either the most dumb and biased this side of Susan Murray or honestly believes that the Communist Cuban government that still curbs free speech and any other freedoms in many severe ways, are telling the truth. No wait, those two options are pretty much the same.

Perhaps the folks over at the CBC need a reminder of what sort of free "elections" Fidel has in mind.

The problem for Liam is that if his knee hadn't been hyperflexing so wildly - just because he loathes the CBC for some reason - therefore smacking himself in the forehead and inducing some state of confusion, Liam might have noticed that the story CBC ran was actually from the Associated Press, right down to the last quotation mark.

For those who aren't familiar with that news organization, let's just say that it is one of the leading news services on the planet. But it is based in the United States and directed by a board made up of major and minor honchos of major and minor news outlets across the Socialist Republic of Ameristan.

Thanks for the laugh, Liam.

Maybe if he gets suitably riled about something real, he'll tackle the Noreen Golfman piece in the Indy back in January. That's unlikely since it would involve commenting negatively on what one suspects is his beloved local weekly.

ADQ would expand Quebec's hydro potential

Le soleil reports that the ADQ would accelerate development of an additional 10000 megawatts of Quebec hydroelectric potential if the party forms the next Government of Quebec.


ADQ leader Mario Dumont also said he would negotiate with Newfoundland and Labrador to develop Labrador's power potential.

The pension plan deal so nice...

They announced it twice.

New finance minister Tom Marshall announced on Thursday that the province will borrow almost $1.0 billion to cover a portion of the unfunded liability in public sector pension plans.

The project will involve an immediate injection of $400 million with a further $597 million to come no later than June 30.

Is this the same announcement as the one made by the old finance minister, Loyola Sullivan, last December?

Notice that Marshall said nothing about the $400 million Sullivan said would be borrowed in December with a further amount later in the fiscal year.

Something says the Sullivan plan got caught in the serial government's decision-making grinder and what was supposed to happen in December was delayed until March.

Rideout strikes another blow against free enterprise

Fish minister Tom Rideout tries to explain government's decision on Fishery Products International.

He still can't define what the public interest is in the whole affair.

Rideout also can't explain how it is the public interest to have governing controlling the operations of private sector companies. If Tom wants to run a fish plant let him quit politics and borrow some cash.

One of the big questions in the whole FPI thing remains whether or not the federal government will agree to let Tom make money off the fish quotas and use them to keep every plant worker he can eligible for EI. That's about the only interest there could be in having the provincial government own fish quotas: keeping the fishing industry in the same mess it was the last time Rideout was fish minister.

Carry on minister

Last year, it was Danny Williams versus a third rate celebrity on CNN:

The choice: Energy powerhouse promoter or seal hunt defender?

DW: I'll take seal hunt defender for 30 minutes, Larry.

The Prem must be busy this year, so instead of the main act, the road company of the province's 2007 edition of March Madness will be headlined by fish minister Tom Rideout, right.

He's leading a crew to an anti- anti-seal hunt stunt on Parliament Hill in Ottawa.

Hilarity is sure to ensue.

They are calling it Up the Anti! and in every respect, the whole affair is reminiscent of the international public relations disaster led by Frank Moores in the 1970s or Codpeace, another one of those silly ideas someone milked for a few minutes of fame around the same time.

The marketing genius who came up with the name of the latest effort should have tried a google search first. ironic given this administration's apparently difficulty with Internet search engines that Danny Williams will be talking to the province's high-tech industry on Friday about expanding business opportunities in cutting-edge technologies.

But I digress.

uptheanti.org leads you to a "resource for collecting interesting articles and items for anarchists and autonoms from across the web."

In 2005, Up the Anti! was the title of a performance by comedian Eddy Brimson at the Edinburgh Fringe Festival. The blurb went like this:

After having his house raided by MI5, Brimson has a few 'issues': Anti-Hunt, Anti-Royal, Anti-Police and ultimately Anti-Establishment. Mixing stand-up with reconstruction... A true comedy terrorist... You've been warned.

The reviews weren't all that good.

But look, if we are going to resurrect ancient comedies, why not try and imitate something genuinely funny?

Like the Carry on... series of films that ran to tremendous success from the 1950s until the 1970s.

Rideout can take the roles normally played by Charles Hawtrey, (left), for example. He's got the toque thing down already.

Danny can probably be enticed to fill in the Sid James roles as the ringleader of the gang. Top billing. One show a night. An interview on Canada AM with Seamus. That sort of thing. bound to get his attention.

There are enough characters in cabinet to fill out the rest of the cast. if they come up short, then there the other members of the House. Some of them could use a trip out of the province.

A revival of Carry on... wouldn't be any less productive than what Rideout has embarked on already.

It would fit in with the cultural strategy that apparently will offset demographic change in the province on top of everything else it is supposed to do. "It's a cultural strategy. It's an economic strategy. No, it's a tourism promotion. No, it fights ageing and promotes immigration."

And it will make your dishes sparkly, like new.

One strategy.

Five uses.

Coming soon to The Shopping Channel, with Tom Hedderson sandwiched between Tony Little and Joan Rivers.

Heck, a travelling comedy show - billed as such, for a change - might actually be able to charge admission, thereby recovering the hundreds of thousands of public dollars being spent on the pro-seal hunt publicity stunts. And the associated travel that must go with these ventures, of course.

It might even generate enough cash to offset the cost of last year's laugh-fest, right.

That might be too much to expect of anything produced by any government.

FPI tortures continue

When it comes to Fishery Products International, the provincial government's definition of "public interest" remains inscrutable to the point of making one wonder if the provincial government knows what the objectives are.

It seems to mean screwing with a company purely for the sake of screwing with it.

Then again, the fish minister, right, seems intent on imposing every hideously bad idea from the past when he was last fish minister.

They didn't work then - in fact they contributed to the mess today - and they certainly aren't working now.

Only in Newfoundland and Labrador do people seem to think that if we do the same things again that didn't work before, they might just work this time.

If that isn't enough to persuade you, consider that the same administration that trumpets its efforts to reduce needless regulation for business has a fish minister who has never seen a pointless regulatory burden on industry he couldn't increase.

Tories take Lab West

The provincial progressive Conservatives took the by election in Labrador West with 1666 votes (42%). The NDP came second with 1240 votes. The Labrador Party was third with 670 votes and the Liberals dragged up the rear with 427 votes.

Turnout was 4003 voters, or 54% of the 7474 officially considered eligible to cast ballots.

Given the latest province-wide poll, the Tories are in an interesting spot. Using those poll results, the Tories should have received almost 3,000 votes. Instead they wound up with 42% of votes cast and 22% of the total eligible vote.

It would be hard to get excited about the result, given the large number of votes cast for the other parties. Clearly, there isn't any overwhelming endorsement of the governing party.

If David Cochrane's analysis is correct, the fight broke down to a Tory/NDP fight in Labrador City and a Tory/Labrador Party fight in Wabush. Those circumstances made it fairly clear the Tories would win.

Add to that the influx of Tories - cabinet ministers and the Premier - all of whom suddenly discovered invitations to speak and to visit the district and you can see the level of pressure applied.

Add to that the influx of cash for the new health centre and you can see how seriously the Tories wanted the seat.

"The one thing is, I didn’t want to come in here and be accused of making all kinds of election promises," he stressed promptly. "But there are commitments we have made over a period of time and the biggest one here is the hospital. And the second one that seems to be biggest of issues on people’s minds here is the road…the [Trans Labrador] Highway. We already indicated last year that we are prepared to put $50 million into surfacing the road. The $50 million we allocated last year we couldn’t use because we were waiting for the feds to step up."

Add to all that, the Premier's last minute interview with the local weekly and you can really see a full court press being played. The Premier backed off significantly on his comments about Iron Ore Company's power contract.

How significantly? Well, this time around he never called it akin to the Churchill Falls contract. Take a look at what he was saying in October. Then notice that he woke up to the political realities in Labrador West once he knew - in January - there was a by election coming. Unfortunately that was after Consolidated Thompson took a pass on buying Wabush Mines.

“We are saying, ‘there is an answer in there somewhere,’” he said of the mining company’s request to extend the rate beyond 2014. “You have to move up…it’s a sign of the times. Provinces like Quebec are trying to attract new industry. They are looking for $4.1 cents, so there is a market rate people are paying now. IOC is in a preferred position [for a lower rate] because they did pass it over to us, but we have maintained it and upgraded it. And, when they did pass it over to us, they passed it over for a reason on the basis that the hydro utility would take it over and absorb the administration, the upkeep and everything else. So it hasn’t just been a one-way ticket and free ride. So we basically said, ‘come back to us with an offer and we will look at it’. We are not being unreasonable on it, but we are not saying we are going to give you a rate like 40 years ago and carry it off into the future because you have to remember, we are trying to get new industry to come in here. So, we have to get a certain rate that’s a commercial rate competitive with Quebec but still fair. So we have to get them to a point that is reasonable so that we are in striking distance of new industry that comes in here. That’s the kind of juggling act we have to go through. So, it is not about being hard-assed or tough or stubborn or anything like that.”

Catch that last part? Danny Williams is shifting his message significantly. On the federal government's planned changes to Equalization, Williams told reporters this week that he was taking a less strident approach so that people wouldn't perceive him as being ready to fight anytime, about anything.

He must have his private pollster pointing out what other people noted long ago. The Danny brand just wasn't working wonders no matter how often the Premier's boosters insisted that the sun coming up in the morning was proof of the glories to come now that there would be no more give-aways.

Danny William's Progressive Conservatives are in full election mode, although polling day is likely coming on October as already planned. Take a look at the news and see how much money is being spent to pave every available blade of grass in every district.

While Tories are rightly pleased at winning this by election, they won't be sitting complacently. Rather, the people of Labrador West can count on getting so much attention they'd swear the Confederation Building was being uprooted and moved to Esker, at least, if not right smack between the two major towns in the region.

That's because the Tory's political people can read poll results like anyone else with half a clue. Having so many people vote against the government party, with all the pressure applied right up to the end, will ensure that the head that wears the crown truly does rest uneasily.

So uneasy, in fact, that he's prepared to toss aside his own personal brand as a relentless fighter if there's a chance of picking up the last few votes of approval in any poll. When you're number one by a considerable margin, apparently you try even harder.

That's really the news we should be watching this week.

Danny Williams last few months in office (up to his retirement already announced) are likely going to be full of surprises.

Adios Normie

Norm Doyle won't be running again.

There's a shock for the guy who had a hard time with the offshore revenues deal and wound up putting his party ahead of his province.

Enjoy the retirement, Norm and the second pension.

Maybe that's why he's bailing now instead of after the budget.

Who will replace him?

Maybe Loyola Sullivan.

Then again, maybe Loyola Hearn will be the next one to pull pin.

This is going to be an interesting year in local politics.

Marshall responds to census figures

Treasury board president Tom Marshall issued a news release this afternoon on the census figures saying "the census counts released today by Statistics Canada are not final population estimates, but merely a step in a larger process used to determine final official population estimates."

Bond Papers readers already knew that the census figure of 505,000 people for the province ere one set of figures. Statistics Canada contends the actual current population of the province is 509,700.

For all the mention of the current administration's strategy for this, that and the other - none of which has had a significant impact on anything - Marshall's comments don't take into account the long term population projections of his own statistics division.

What's more, the Premier's own projections don't show any of his initiatives, including the still-not-released energy plan, having any significant impact on the province for the better part of the next decade.

In fact, the current Statistics Canada figures correspond most closely to the provincial government's low scenario:

Fertility - the total fertility rate continues to decline in line with recent trends, from a rate of 1.32 in 2006 to 1.14 in 2021.

Mortality - life expectancies continue to increase but at rates slightly below historical trends. Male life expectancy increases by 1.9 years between 2006 and 2021. Female life expectancy increases by 1.8 years over the same period.

Migration - with fewer jobs available in the Province under this scenario, net out-migration from the Province averages roughly 3,000 per year for the next two years and thereafter remains in the -2,000 to -1,000 per year range over most of the projection period as strong labour markets in Central and Western Canada continue to attract young workers from other areas of the country.

The low scenario would have the population a decade from now numbering about 475,000 people. What Marshall's comment's also don't consider is that with the other demographic changes taking place, the work force in a decade's time will be smaller than it is today while the retirees and children, will be considerably larger. That means that the current administration's economic plans will not only have to address the natural changes in the population - already projected accurately by the provincial government's own statistics division - they will have to overcome the setbacks that result from a decade of lost revenue on projects like Hebron and Hibernia South.

Dalton new chair of MUN board of regents

Gilbert Dalton has been appointed new chair of the Memorial University Board of Regents.

Of course, this had nothing to do with it, but it is an interesting reminder of the arguments made only three years ago.

NL population headed below 500K early

While provincial government demographic projections have long shown the province's population dropping below 500,000 people within the first two decades of the 21st century, the latest census data from Statistics Canada shows the population is already well on its way to that point.
The official 2006 census shows the population of Newfoundland and Labrador at 505,469 people, down from 512,930 in 2001.

That's below the Stats Can estimates of the population last year that showed it at over 509,000. Statistics Canada considers these so-called postcensual figures to be a more accurate reflection of the current population and explains the methodology in a separate note.

Community-by-community numbers are contained on separate data sheets.

The census figures show a net population change. It does not indicate outmigration exclusively. Some of the population change in Newfoundland and Labrador would include internal migration from towns to towns or towns to cities.

Newfoundland and Labrador's population declined by 1.5% between 2001 and 2006, one of only two provinces experiencing a decline during the most recent five year census period. Only Saskatchewan also experienced decline between 2001 and 2006.

Between 1996 and 2001, the province's population declined by 7% in the aftermath of the cod moratorium. The population of Newfoundland and Labrador hasn't been below 500,000 people since the late 1960s.

Bonus demographic question

What three things likely contributed to the dramatic decline in some sexually transmitted illness rates in Newfoundland and Labrador in the past 25 years?

Take gonorrhea, for example. Exactly 792 cases in this province in 1980. Only one in 2004.

Why the massive drop?

What about chlamydia? Not such a dramatic decline at all. In fact both the number of cases reported and the rate of infection in the population has gone up since the early 1990s.

Take a look at last year's release from Health Canada and you won't get a clue. Nationally, gonnorhea is on the increase, as is chlamydia.

It doesn't make sense that our population would buck the trend so dramatically.

Alberta focuses on its federal cash

As noted yesterday, Alberta finance minister Lyle Oberg is focusing attention on federal transfers other than Equalization.

Lorne Calvert insists that Oberg's boss - Ed Stelmach - hasn't changed his position.

Ever notice that with Danny Williams - and now Lorne Calvert - it's never the person who does the denying? Danny - and now Lorne - is the guy to tell us what the other guy committed to or didn't commit to.

Like Paul Martin.

Like Stephen Harper.

Like all the provincial premiers who supposedly backed Danny in his first fight with Ottawa. [Did anyone ever see a single letter or hear a comment that said anything like 'Go, Danny Go!"?]

And now like Ed Stelmach.

At Bond Papers, we learned a long time ago to take the words of the people involved over Danny's - and now Lorne's - version of things.

It's a safer bet.

Alberta isn't backing Lorne - and Danny - on the Equalization thingy.

Outmigration in perspective, from labradore

Courtesy of Wally Maclean, out migration, in migration and all the other niceties of demographic change.

Newfoundland's hope goes west

From MSNBC and the Financial Times, no less, comes this discussion of the province's looming economic downturn.

The Conference Board of Canada reported last month that Newfoundland and Labrador's economy will expand this year by 5 per cent, up from 1.8 per cent last year, boasting the highest economic growth of any Canadian province this year. However, that growth is expected to end this year, slowing to just 0.4 per cent in 2008 as oil production drops off.

Some minor details are wrong, but fundamentally, the province is being branded as on the decline.

In fact, the story is so clear that Andy Wells looks like a total lunatic when he speaks of the province being at the beginning of a growth cycle.

No amount of advertising and no supply of trade shows can undo the negatives this piece portrays. Then again, the provincial government has actively courted the image of being the place where things aren't happening.

Private investment in NL forecast to drop by 16.2%

That sucking noise is the 2007 forecast for investment in Newfoundland and Labrador from outside the province according to the National Bank of Canada.

New Brunswick leads all provinces with private sector investment growth expected to hit 15.7% during 2007. Much of this strength will come from utilities and manufacturing sector investments. Utilities are also a big factor in Prince Edward Island.

Check the chart in the .pdf linked above. Newfoundland and Labrador will see a decline in investment of 16.2%. Overall, the National Bank puts the investment slowdown in four provinces in a wider perspective that diminishes the impact on the country as a whole.

But if you are in this province, it's difficult to miss the hit, let alone take it.

Creative writing 101

AJ Baker's latest column for the Transcon weeklies includes this statement:

The Conservative party is now in a quandary about what to do before the wrath of Danny Williams befalls them.

Their quandry?

Laugh now or laugh later.

This column would make sense if it had been written three years ago. Today, it makes you wonder where Baker's been all this time.

Soldier charged in August 2006 Afghanistan shooting

Master Corporal Robbie Fraser faces one count of manslaughter (s. 236 of the Criminal Code of Canada) and one count of negligent performance of duty (s.124 of National Defence Act) following a Canadian Forces National Investigative Service investigation into the death of Master Corporal Jeffrey Walsh, in Afghanistan, in August 2006.

No further information on the charges was contained in the official news release.

As recently as Sunday, little information had been released on the incident.

_______________________________________

Update:

A new Canadian Press story with comments from MCpl Walsh's father.

It's the inaccuracy that grates

In the army, it would be difficult for a "gun" to be fired inside a vehicle, as in several news stories over the past 24 hours:

The allegations are that a gun belonging to another solider [sic], Master Cpl. Robbie Fisher, somehow went off in the vehicle, and the single shot hit Walsh.

This is a rifle, specifically the C-7 (right):

This is a Canadian-manufactured version of the M-16A2. it fires a bullet that is .223 inches/5.56 millimetres in diameter. It is carried by individual soldiers and fits inside just about any vehicle.




On the other hand, this is a gun [left].

Specifically, it is the M777 155 millimetre howitzer used by Canadian Forces in Afghanistan.

It is worked by a crew of several soldiers and simply doesn't fit inside any existing military vehicle.

While nits are being picked, the vehicle involved could not be a Jeep, as the CityNews story quoted above calls it. The same reference appears in the Canadian Press stories on the shooting incident as well.

The Canadian Forces has not used jeeps - i.e. the military version of the World War II light utility truck - since the early 1980s. Jeep refers to the trade-marked civilian vehicle.

Canadian Press has an excellent style guide and a caps and spelling guide that deals with just these pesky details.

Too bad more people writing news - including Canadian Press - don't use it.

Williams to end blackout

Premier Danny Williams has been going through a self-imposed media exile for about a month.

Russell Wangersky discussed it on Saturday in his regular Telegram column.

And you have to say, it’s probably been the right decision.

After all, in the days leading up to the blackout, things were getting, well, out of control.

The present silence is, without a doubt, an improvement over the media stylings that were taking place just before Williams departed the airwaves, when he was talking about keeping an eye on people and threatening lawsuits against anyone who would call the character of sitting politicians into question.

Sometimes, everyone has to sit back and take a deep breath, and ask whether the direction we’re taking is a fair one, whether you’re in the media or the political community or anywhere else.

The blackout ends today at 11:00 AM. The Premier will be meeting with reporters to discuss provincial ferry rates.

His scrum partner will be none other than transportation minister John Hickey. This one should be interesting for all the questions not about ferry rates.

Williams isolated on Equalization

Alberta's out of the Equalization war.

That didn't take long.

Like Kramer in "The Contest".

[Alberta finance minister Lyle Oberg] says it doesn't make sense to oppose the new equalization formula when Alberta, as a wealthy province, neither gains nor loses from a payout system designed for poorer jurisdictions.

"It doesn't matter to us," Mr. Oberg said, adding later: "We also recognize that there's certainly a high chance that this is going to come in whether we say anything or not."

Well, d'uh, on all counts, he said, in recognition of Vernacular Monday.

There was never any reason for Alberta to wade into the discussion.

So now the Great Jihad for Handouts is down to Saskatchewan and Danny Williams.

Hmmm.

Something to watch for in the Globe story: a comment from Ken Boessenkool.

"It's not just a new tone, it's frankly a more sensible tone," Mr. Boessenkool said of the Alberta finance minister's position, contrasting it with that of Mr. Klein, who he said liked to "rattle the populist cage."

Mr. Boessenkool, a Conservative who has written for years on equalization, said the program is not a transfer of money to provinces such as Quebec from Alberta because it's paid for from revenue that Ottawa collects from all Canadians.

Boessenkool has considerable influence in Ottawa or, at the very least, knows which way the wind is blowing on a given file.

________________________

Update:

There was a clue to Alberta's position in February, with Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach expressing a preference for more cash flowing to provinces through transfers other than Equalization.

Just last week, on the heels of federal finance minister Jim Flaherty's visit to St. John's, Bond gave a prediction on what the feds might do, taking a cue from Ken Boessenkool's recent paper on Equalization.

NS and NL: same old, same old

This column could have been written about Newfoundland and Labrador.

Could have, but hasn't been. Yet.

So much of what has been going on in this province since 2001 (That's right - Grimes and Williams are on the same wavelength) harkens back to the very darkest days of the 1980s, yet not a single politician seems to be able to break out of the public policy cycle that has held this province back.

In the fishery, the offshore and just about every other sector of the economy, the dominant thinking is the same sort of thing we have tried before with a stunning lack of success.

And, as in Nova Scotia, the young people of Newfoundland and Labrador are packing up and heading to somewhere else.

(h/t tip to nottawa)

Voting with their feet

The 2006 census data is being released on Tuesday.

In anticipation of the complete data being release in the coming months, here is a simple table comprising population figures for Newfoundland and Labrador over the past 15 years. The source is Statistics Canada.

The year before the cod moratorium was announced there were 568, 474 people living in Newfoundland and Labrador. Within five years, the population had declined by 17,000.

With the end of federal income supports for those involved in the groundfish fishery, the population dwindled rapidly. By 2001, there were 512, 930 in the province.

The population showed a net gain over the next three years, with an estimated 514,209 people living here in July 2004.

Between July 1, 2005 and July 1, 2006, however the population showed a net decline of 4,185 people. While there are many causes for the change in population, declining economic prospects in Newfoundland in the fishery and with the slowdown in the offshore undoubtedly accelerated outmigration.

Yet more on the Argentia video

Ed:

Thanks for linking my site on your blog. My name is Gerry Carew and I created the website www.broadcasttherock.com one more correction to your post The Danny Williams and Andy Wells videos were shot by me and my company www.thevideoman.ca I volunteered to do this for them so that they would have a record of these very interesting shows. I posted them on my website because I knew they would be popular and I hope they get lots of hits to their site from my intiative.

If you don't mind correcting that I would appreciate it.

Lots of interesting videos to come stay tuned!

Gerry Carew
www.broadcasttherock.com

No Gerry, I don't mind at all. Thanks for the information. In the meantime, I would suggest if anyone has more information, then by all means add it to the comments section of the Argentia post.

The foreign bogeyman

...Rhetorically at least, there has been good mileage to be made in Newfoundland politics by charging governments past and present with having sold the country down the river and by challenging the legitimacy of allegedly perfidious agreements. At one level, indeed, Newfoundland history is a record of attempts to undo the past. If foreign bogeyman can be made part of the story all the better, although the greatest loathing in this particular tradition is perhaps reserved for local politicians who are believed to have aided or engineered the betrayal of their own people. In St. John's especially, a paranoid outlook in such matters has, going back to the nineteenth century, never been far below the surface. In sum, the scapegoat, either at home or from abroad, has figured prominently in Newfoundland political history.

Peter Neary, Newfoundland in the North Atlantic World, 1929 - 1949, (McGill-Queen's university Press, 1988)

War museum continues with exhibit despite controversy

The Canadian War Museum will continue with an exhibit that, in part, notes the ongoing controversy over the Allied bombing campaign against German civilian targets during the Second World War.

In response to complaints from veterans groups, including the Royal Canadian Legion, the museum asked prominent historians to review the exhibit and offer comment. The Museum has not released the commentaries but a spokesman for the museum said the historians viewed the exhibit as "accurate and balanced."

Two of the historians did suggest that the panel in question could be removed since it was "unnecessary."

"Mass bomber raids against Germany resulted in vast destruction and heavy loss of life," the disputed panel reads. "The value and morality of the strategic bomber offensive against Germany remains bitterly contested. Bomber Command's aim was to crush civilian morale and force Germany to surrender by destroying its cities and industrial installations. Although Bomber Command and American attacks left 600,000 Germans dead, and more than five million homeless, the raids resulted in only small reductions in German war production until late in the war."

The Legion, meanwhile, is looking to the senate committee on veterans affairs to conduct an inquiry into the exhibit. It is also continuing a boycott of the museum that began in 2005.

The controversy is reminiscent of complaints about a CBC series, The valour and the horror and its episode on Bomber Command, entitled "Death by moonlight."

The series attracted criticism from historians including Dr. Jack Granatstein. The series was also the subject of a senate committee review.

Sinc eopening in 2005, the new museum has also been the subject of controversy over its protrayal of Canada's military heritage and the design of the building.

Oddly enough, Dr. Dean Oliver, the War Museum's director of exhibits but who at the time was teaching at Carlton University, was critical of the Valour and the Horror. Oliver is a graduate of Memorial University and York University.

Williams media silence golden?

The Telegram's Russell Wangersky muses on the Premier's retreat from the news media.

Dumont fires second candidate

Latest poll shows gap closing among the three parties in the Quebec election.

Implosion video correction

The following came in response to the post on the Argentia implosion in 1999:

The video of the demolition of the building in Argentia was not shot and edited by the company that did the demolition.

It was shot and edited by Tristram Clark and Ray Fennelly for an early Newfoundland online video site, www.cfog.net. I think it also appeared at www.thetelegram.com as part of a daily video feature called Newfoundland Today.

Tristram also recorded and edited the Danny Williams and Andy Wells performances at the Big Brothers benefit which is also streaming at the broadcast on the rock site.

Credit where credit is due. They did an awesome job.

Thanks for the correction.

Suicide verdict questioned in death of Russian reporter

This past week, Moscow police found the body of Ivan Safranov in the courtyard outside his apartment.

It looked like he had jumped, an apparent suicide.

Friends and co-workers suspect Safranov is just the latest in a series murders targeting journalists who cover stories sensitive to the Russian government or the Russian mafia.

Safranov a former army colonel, worked for Kommersant.

A-NOIAing to government

Industry minister Trevor Taylor is excited about 18 local companies going to a forum next week designed to highlight procurement opportunities in the Alberta energy boom.

NOIA started working on this project last summer in the wake of the Hebron collapse.

Search in vain for any acknowledgement of the supply and service sector's local association work on this file.

That's okay. People in the industry know what is happening.

Magnum Force

Head over to Offal News, if you don't already as a matter of course, and check out Simon Lono's latest observations on the Hickey affray with Roger Grimes.

Lono draws in a West Wing episode which is always cool. Lono demonstrates he has a .44 Magnum mind in a .357 world. Read toward the end and you'll see the bit where that happens.

Lono could have been quoting Harry Callahan: "A man's got know his limitations."

A soldier, once and always

Corporal Kevin Megeney's remains are on the way home from Afghanistan.

The investigation is continuing into his death and into another death in August that resulted from a gunshot wound. In the August case, the military investigation has reportedly ruled out foul play, suicide or enemy action. Odds are good this latest one will head to the same conclusion.

But here's a pet peeve from the media coverage, where Corporal Megeney is referred to repeatedly as a "reservist". maybe more than once your humble e-scribbler has let that word slip from his own lips or typed them onto a page somewhere.

No more.

There's something about that word that just doesn't sit right.

The fact that Corporal Megeney volunteered on a part-time basis to serve in the army doesn't make him any different from the person who opted to volunteer for full-time service.

There's a tendency - and it may still come from the military as well - to consider the reserve component of the Canadian Forces as a haven for lesser beings compared to their Regular Force counterparts.

Their liability was supposedly different. They could opt not to show up. Blah. Blah. Blah. You hear them all. Maybe things have changed in the past six years but for a long time there was an attitude toward Reserve Force soldiers. They were reserve, as in hold-back, or even slack.

It's time to adjust that attitude.

Kevin Megeney did his job.

He worked hard at it.

He showed skill and ability.

When the chance came, he volunteered to go to Afghanistan where others didn't.

Now he's dead.

Grieve him.

But Corporal Megeney was never a reservist.

He was a soldier.

Whenever we speak of someone like Kevin Megeney, let's just call them by the simple name they deserve.

Where are they now?

Over at Broadcast the Rock, someone has done the great service of posting two clips from a celebrity fundraiser for Big Brothers Big Sisters in 2000.

It's a great organization and local celebrities should be commended for putting in considerable effort to let people have a whoop or, in one case, a serious laugh at their expense.

But still.

Ya can't help but wonder where these guys are now.

Well, actually, they have become best buds, apparently with one - who later become Premier - giving the other one a nice appointment at the province's offshore regulatory board. About a year or so after this event, the guy doing Mambo #5, took over as leader of the Progressive Conservatives and later defeated Roger Grimes in the 2003 general election.

So for your Friday enjoyment here is Andy Wells demonstrating why he went into politics and not music, and Danny Williams doing his version of Mambo #5.

Who needs I.P Freely?

Imploding the Q

From John Gushue's ...dot dot dot a video of the demolition of the old combined bachelor quarters at Argentia, in November 1999. Warning: the video is on autoplay, meaning that when you click the link the video will start right away.

John introduces a new website called Broadcast the Rock, a video sharing service of the type that have been springing up everywhere in the past few years.

Here's the youtube.com version:



Your humble e-scribbler worked on the project.

The Argentia Hilton was a multi-story building at the old United States naval facility that, at the time it was built, was reputedly the tallest building in the province. It housed single soldiers, sailors and airmen and some transient personnel travelling through Argentia without families. There as also a medical facility there, a barber shop and other similar offices.

The Q, as it was known, was such a large building that the most effective way to demolish it was by implosion. That's a technique that involves planting explosives at key parts of the building structure and detonating them in a planned sequence.

In this case, the company with the site clean-up contract decided to do something spectacular with what turned out to be the last implosion anywhere on the planet in 1999. They hired Prime Communications and your humble scribe started working with that company about a week or two before the implosion project.

The demolition was used a fundraiser for the local health authority. Tickets were sold with the winner getting the privilege of pushing the big red button - literally - that triggered the explosives. They hired a company to set the charges but they also rigged pyrotechnics to add to the visuals. The large red bursts are five gallon canisters of gasoline with squibs attached. They had nothing to do with the demolition, rather they created the visuals that gave the crowd reaction you can hear on part of the video.

Watch the video a couple of times and you will notice the multiple camera angles involved. The company set up a series of remotely operated cameras aimed at the building from various angles to get this edited version so you can see what happened from the various perspectives.

The event was a huge success. The amount raised ran into the thousands and the lucky button-pusher was a 12 year old boy. He was beside himself with excitement. The weather was a bit chilly on that November day but a few thousand people turned out for the show.

Various versions of the video turned up around the world on year-end highlights reels.

What would Danny do? More like what is Don doing?

It is truly bizarre for a pollster, especially one who does business with at least one of the provincial government's referenced in this Daily News article, to make public comments slamming the Premier of Nova Scotia and the Mayor of Halifax and praising the Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador.

But that what Corporate Research Associate's Don Mills did yesterday in Halifax.

It's possible, of course, that all three get Mill's quarterly omnibus results, but it is still curious to see his comments.

Well, more specifically, it's curious to see this comment:

"If Halifax withdraws from the bid, the consequences for this community will be devastating," Mills told a business audience of more than 200. "We will never get this chance again."

Admittedly the context is different. He's accusing politicians of equivocating. Then he praises Danny Williams for leadership. But if "leadership" produces a situation on, say, Hebron, that matches exactly the situation Mills just described about Halifax, then leadership becomes as useless as its opposite.

Mills' polling can still show Williams being overwhelmingly popular, but the responses to that single question don't give the full picture on what is going on in Newfoundland and Labrador.

The media get a slam as well for reporting on the projected costs of the Halifax Commonwealth Games bid. There's a novel idea: slamming reporters for doing their job. That is soooo effective at generating the coverage you'd like to see.

There's other coverage of Mills' speech. CBC has it. There's also a more complete story in the Chronicle Herald that includes some of Mills' strong criticisms of Premier Rodney MacDonald.

This speech gives us some real insight into Mills' grasp of politics in Atlantic Canada and that should colour how we take his future analyses.

If Mills was really so clued in, then he'd know to thank his lucky stars he lives in Nova Scotia.

In Newfoundland and Labrador, he'd have a Premier showing "leadership" but if someone like Mills stuck his head up to criticise what the "leader" was doing publicly, he be slapped with a lawsuit before his ass hit his seat at the hotel. At the very least, the "leader" would be threatening lawsuits very openly and very publicly.

Mills might even be kissing his polling contract with government, good bye. Subscribers would dry up.

Mills should know when he's got it good.

He should also add a few questions to his omnibus so he can pick up a better view of politics in the Atlantic provinces.

___________________
Update:

From the comments section, this blog link on the Games bid being yanked.

There are accounts of the controversy at the Daily News, a column from the same paper that supports the cancellation based on cost overruns, from the Friday Globe and Mail, a story from Glasgow- also bidding on the games - that claims the Halifax bid was more than double the Glasgow bid, and this one from the Chronicle Herald.

Confusion at Disneyland 2

On Goose Bay and the Conservative's promises:

CBC Here and Now, March 7, 2007

DEBBIE COOPER: Steven Harper also committed to a beefed up military presence in Goose Bay. Is the government still committed to that?

JIM FLAHERTY: Yes.

DEBBIE COOPER: When?

JIM FLAHERTY: The when is being worked on. I mean there is work . . .I know there is because as Finance Minister I see it. There is work afoot to accomplish this. We have only been the government for 13 months. The last group were there for 13years and didn't get a whole bunch of things done.

We've accomplished quite a bit in the 13 months but there's more to be done and the Goose Bay commitment remains.

DEBBIE COOPER: So people are going to have to have more patience there?

JIM FLAHERTY: Yes but not for too long.

But, then there's this testimony by Major General Mike Ward.

Ward is a lot more than the model of the modern major general. As he described himself to the standing committee on national defence:

My role, on behalf of the Deputy Minister and the Chief of the Defence Staff, is to harmonize, synchronize and integrate the Force Development activities of the Navy, the Army and the Air Force, as well as the duties carried out by DND's Assistant Deputy Ministers.

Force development is that function that continuously conceives and redesigns the military so that it is better geared to fight the next war than the last one. It includes analysis of government policy on defence and the security environment, as well as we can predict it, out into the future. It uses that analysis to identify possible future scenarios within which we would apply military force or use military skills in things like humanitarian interventions. In those scenarios, we test our forces and our equipment to determine what changes might need to be made as we replace or modernize them at key stages in their lives.

That role, incidentally is Chief Force Development. Basically, if Goose Bay is on anyone's table, it would definitely be on Ward's.

That's what makes his remarks - excerpted below - very telling.

Those familiar with Ottawa will not find it at all bizarre that a defence and security initiative is being lead by Indian and Northern Affairs Canada. The rest of us can just call that the place is known as Disneyland for a reason.

But I digress.

Standing Committee on National Defence
Thursday, February 8, 2007

Hon. Joe McGuire:

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

We have been concentrating on the equipment required in our overseas operations, and rightly so. Our soldiers are in the field and so on, but the government has announced a major domestic initiative in the north to exercise our sovereignty in that area.

I am just wondering what procurements are required for that initiative. The minister has made some commitments to Goose Bay and other areas that he has in mind for exercising that sovereignty. What kind of equipment--ships, planes, ports, whatever--is going to be required, and how far along is that process? Has it got to the Public Works level? Exactly where is the planning for our northern initiative?

MGen M.J. Ward:

In response to government direction, we've been in the process of developing a “Canada first” defence strategy, which really characterizes the defence policy initiatives that are key to the government's desires. In keeping with that, in the capability development realm, we've been following up with analysis of specific scenarios, including the Arctic, that allow us to understand what types of roles the Canadian Forces can provide in that region, and also against the types of gaps or deficiencies we may have in, for instance, the ability to survey our Arctic, to know what's going on up there, to potentially to respond or to maintain more presence.

So we're going through a number of analyses to look at what our options might be, and that's tied up in the defence strategy that's going through the cabinet process at this time. The government will have us look at a number of initiatives to see how we can do a better job in that particular part of our domestic land space, air space, and approaches.

Hon. Joe McGuire:

Are there any first steps being implemented on the Goose Bay commitment, in Bagotville, and so on, on the initial announcement the minister was making on Goose, and the role Goose was going to play in the north? Is there anything imminent there as far as the equipment purchases or instructions to public works to proceed with some equipment purchases?

MGen M.J. Ward:

We really can't say because of what's in the plan, but there really hasn't been specific action taken on the Goose Bay initiative. [Emphasis added]

Hon. Joe McGuire:

So the whole northern initiative, the arctic initiative, is at a very elementary stage?

MGen M.J. Ward:

Part of it is at the highest levels of government in terms of specifying a lead department to review an arctic strategy. The Privy Council Office certainly has a keen interest in making sure there's a balance of effort and an understanding of who the lead department would be. INAC has been determined to be the lead department.

Hon. Joe McGuire:

They're still trying to identify the department that will lead the initiative? Is that it?

MGen M.J. Ward:

No, my understanding is that INAC has been determined to be the lead department for the development of the strategy, but several government departments also have roles to play in that. Foreign Affairs certainly has a significant role to play, as it affects our offshore or issues beyond our territorial boundary. So it will take some time I think for each of the government departments to get together and discuss those issues. We'll be having discussions in coming weeks with INAC officials just to make sure we each know what each other is doing with regard to the Arctic. So it's at a fairly preliminary stage.