Hebron announcement notes

1.  ExxonMobil drove the bus.

Well, when it comes to project timings the big player called the shots.

The companies were ready to rumble in 2006 but the disagreement put this project firmly in the pile for sometime after 2012. 

ExxonMobil never wavered from that lead-time.

They confirmed it as recently as March.

2.  How much is that doggie in the window? 

Well, how much is a pig in a poke?

The Telegram and the Mighty Ceeb fell all over themselves today with the supposed cash value of the Hebron deal at $28 billion.  Aside:  Could David Cochrane have been any more excited today hosting "On the Go"? Second aside:  Yes, the Telly's been known to endorse big deals before.

That number is bogus, though, just as Cochrane and all the others well know since - like every other cash comparison figure and any cash valuation of this project (aside from construction costs) - the numbers are pulled from the nearest bodily orifice.

The $28 billion figure tossed around today assumes an average price of crude oil between 2018 (first oil) and 2043 (project termination) of US$112 or so per barrel.  Not even the oil companies are investing based on those sorts of airy-fairy projections.  

The $20 billion figure also tossed around on Wednesday used an assumed price of oil of US$87 over the same time period.

Wade Locke projected $10 billion over the same time span using an assumed price of US$50 a barrel.  And before anyone steps in to note the words super-royalty, let us all be reminded that the super-royalty applies only when oil remains above US$50 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate.

Do the math yourself. 

What is the average price of oil over the past 25 years?

What's been the usual price of oil over that time period, as opposed to the average price?

Now take another look at the Hebron projections.

Put it another way:  when the Hibernia deal was signed in September 1990, oil prices were as low as they could have been foreseen and were foreseen.  Within two years oil was at US$8 a barrel.  Only a few years earlier, it had been forecast to attain and stay above US$100 a barrel.

The project was assumed to be a total loser when it was started;  that is, the government never expected the project to hit payout.  As it is, Hibernia will generate in excess of $14 billion in provincial government revenues over its entire life span.  The government figures today deliberately low-balled Hibernia, Terra Nova and White Rose in order to hype the Hebron stock.

The project is going ahead;  that's good.  What it's worth to the provincial treasury will only be known at some distant point in the future.

3.  A Hebron exclusive they won't discuss.

Hebron is first oil project offshore Newfoundland and Labrador that will start construction four years after a development agreement was reached with the provincial government.

Hibernia, Terra Nova and White Rose all started construction within months of the signing.

4.  So how much work will be done in the province?

Safest bet is the bare minimum committed.

The provincial government negotiating team seems to have operated on the assumption that it didn't need to lock down all possible local construction  - an earlier political commitment - since the NLRC refinery and two other projects would be sucking up the labour pool at the same time.

By the time that assumption was proven to be pretty stunned, it was too late.

The gravity base and its associated piping will be done here, along with a few other bits of simple welding like the helideck, the lifeboat rigging and the flare boom.

By the time this project starts construction - some time after 2012 - there may well be a deepening of the current global labour shortage.  Any local construction workers currently in Alberta will be even more wedded to that economy than they are now making it unlikely the "homing pigeons" will be homing. Four years from now, the labour market locally will be smaller and older than it currently is.

Add it all together and you can see that it's highly likely some shipyard in Mississippi or Korea will be slamming the topsides together for Hebron.

5.  And what about the royalty regime?

Bond Papers already went through it, in spades:

•  The preliminary assessment
•  The second look (it didn't get better)
•  The lower royalty regime
• Wider implications  (As it turns out, the provincial government will be spending cash until 2018.  That's something that never occurred on a project before.  Oil production from the other projects will decline over the next decade, despite expansion of existing fields.  That means lower government revenues. At the same time, an aging population will cause increased pressure on health care spending. The whole thing makes for a difficult strategic mix, one made all the more problematic considering that revenues are tied to the price of oil which turn out to be much lower in the 2020s and 2030s than the assumptions used as the basis for this agreement)

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"counter-spinning negativity"

Now, by any logical process, in order for there to be counter-spin, there has to be spin first.

This is not a chicken and egg thing;  very simply put, nothing can be counteracted unless it exists.

And you will likely recall that spin is another word for hype, bullshit and lies.

So if we take this phrase  - uttered by the Premier back in April - based on the meaning of the words, counter-spin would be a positive action in that it is intended to dispel hype, bullshit, lies, half-truths and other forms of misrepresentation and even outright deception contained in whatever spin existed in the first place.

Yet the positive action of dispelling falsehood is somehow negative?

What an odd notion.

And what a truly queer idea:  that a government so overwhelmingly popular might be somehow deflected from its mighty accomplishments by concerns for what must surely be  - given the almighty popularity of the government  - entirely without any impact at all.

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Groundwork: The Hebron MOU deconstructed, as announced

To help in assessing the final Hebron deal, here are some notes drafted for a Bond Papers post last year:

Bottom line: Bond Papers said it about 18 months ago, and overall it remains true - a deal is good.

Both sides wanted it. The provincial government needed the deal, like they needed it 18 months ago. There are some implications of the delay as described below.

Even the memorandum of understanding takes a huge political monkey off Danny Williams' back.

The oil companies get to develop more oil than initially planned for about the same cost as originally proposed.

Much work needs to be done, especially on the local benefits package. The provincial government backgrounder contains conditional language that needs to be sorted out in the detailed negotiations.

As Williams said of Voisey's Bay, the detailed agreement are where the companies can find loopholes, escape hatches and off- ramps to avoid delivering on what they appear to have agreed to deliver.

Let's take a look at some specific issues.

1. Superlative language. Characteristically, the Premier and his energy minister used superlatives to praise their own memorandum of understanding.

Words like "tremendous", "historic" and "off the chart" were flowing easier than API 70 oil.

As a general rule, use of over-the-top language is an indicator of an insecurity in the announcement itself or an effort to offset some deficiencies. Hyperbole is a Danny Williams trademark.

2. What Danny originally asked for

Two of the three, depending on which April one considers.

- April 2005. [ram audio file] Better royalties, secondary processing i.e. a refinery, and better research and development funding.

- April 2006. Super-royalties, an "equity" stake, and better local benefits.

3. Equity. Total estimated cost: $360 to $660 million. 4.9%, costing $110 million plus an estimated $250 million of construction costs. The Premier also predicted an additional set of costs of some $2.0 to $6.0 billion over the 25 year life of the project; that would translate into additional costs from the equity position of $300 million.

Those costs must be recovered before the equity position yields any cash as net benefit to the provincial treasury.

Beyond that the province's energy company - that still exists only on paper - now holds a series of undisclosed risks and liabilities.

4. Larger field. The earlier negotiations involved only the Hebron field and its approximately 500 million barrels of heavy, sour crude. This project adds about 200 million barrels of light sweet crude in the Ben Nevis structure.

Ordinarily, this would add additional cash value to the project, but as noted below, the total projected revenue is not significantly better than that estimated for the earlier negotiation.

5. Tier 3 Royalties. Super-royalties that deliver a percentage based on oil above a certain dollar price? Not exactly.

What turned up in the news conference looks more like the Hibernia royalty regime.

From the official backgrounder:

The new super royalty for the province is an additional 6.5 per cent of net revenue at higher oil prices (>US$50 WTI/bbl) after net royalty payout;

From the Hibernia royalty regime:

The Net Royalty consists of a two tier profit sensitive royalty which becomes effective when Net Royalty Payout occurs.

• Tier 1

The Tier 1 Net Royalty is 30% of Net Revenue after a Return Allowance of 15% is achieved. Basic Royalty is a credit against this royalty. Therefore, the interest holders pay the higher of Basic Royalty or Tier 1 Net Royalty.

• Tier 2

The Tier 2 Net Royalty is 12.5% of Net Revenue after a Return Allowance of 18% plus the CPI is achieved. The Tier 2 Net Royalty is in addition to any other royalties payable.

Net royalty payout is "point in time when the costs related to a particular project are recovered plus a specified return allowance on those costs." A similar concept exists in the province's basic offshore royalty regime.

In all likelihood, the triggers to attain Tier Three royalties are such that they will not be achieved on Hebron until after other royalties have been triggered. There is no way to be certain since the language in the backgrounder is too vague to determine how the new Tier Three royalty relates to the rest of the royalty regime used for the Hebron negotiation.

One thing is certain: Tier Three royalties are only available after the project achieves simple payout. That means the possibility of collecting the additional revenue is contingent on the price of oil being above US$50 per barrel from the mid 2020s onward.

6. Other royalty regime changes. The provincial government's so-called generic royalty regime for offshore projects was developed in 1996. It clearly establishes the minimum royalty to be paid to the provincial government is 1% of gross revenue and increases progressively to 7.5% until simple payout occurs.

The backgrounder for the Hebron MOU refers to a change to royalty regime to "[p]rovide downside royalty protection by keeping the basic royalty rate at one per cent of gross revenue until project costs are recovered (i.e. simple payout)."

There is nothing in the provincial documentation to indicate why it would be necessary to introduce this new concept except that the progressive increase in the basic royalty rate is being eliminated.

As such, provincial government royalties will be a mere 1% until such time as the project achieves simple payout.

7. Revenues. The news release today provide a revenue estimate for the province of $16 billion over the 25 year lifespan of the Hebron project.

On the face of it, this figure appears to be nothing more than an adjustment to figures used by MUN economist Dr. Wade Locke that projected up to $10 billion, based on an assumed oil price of US$50 per barrel. Bond Papers noted this possibility in a pre-announcement post.

However, Locke did not anticipate a change to the basic royalty regime that reduces royalties to 1% during the entire pre-payout period.

There is also no indication from the Premier on the revenue flow anticipated from the equity position, thus, with the new lower royalty regime, this $16 billion is highly suspicious.

8. Research and Development. The commitment for $120 million over the 25 year lifespan of the project appears to be below the current standard set by the offshore regulatory board.

9. Timelines. The project may begin construction in 2010. This assumes that the complex negotiations for the development agreement are concluded successfully and quickly and that the development application to the offshore board is approved expeditiously.

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When the last seam is welded, Part Deux

Here's another project that has proven more valuable in the hype than in the actual delivery of it, completed.

As with the second refinery and the natural gas terminal, Lower Churchill is something to believe only when the last seam on the last penstock is finished and the juice is actually flowing.

By the way, given that CRA is asking about "good corporate citizens" in its regional quarterly omnibus, this sort of story is well timed, dontcha think?  [Hint:  CRA polls in Nova Scotia at the same time as they poll in NL]

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Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain

As we told you some time ago, the Hebron agreement was signed sometime last month but - for some completely inexplicable reason - the public announcement was postponed.

The mighty Ceeb is reporting it as if the deal itself may be signed this week and likely that's what they've been told via someone's clicking thumbs. Since the memorandum of understanding expires this week, having a deal at the last minute sounds more dramatic. It looks like it went right down to the wire wrestling every little concession and gain, when, truthfully, most of the time was spent with lawyers arguing about whether the sentence needed a comma or a semi-colon.

All pretty cut and dried since the deal in broad outline - jobs locally pouring concrete but not much else in local benefits - was done in the memorandum of understanding. Other fabrication work done locally will be minimal, most likely, if the MOU was any indication. Think not just Hibernia Light, but Terra Nova Light, but time will tell if the old crystal ball at Bond is right.

Anyways, beyond the need to ramp up the drama around the hebron thingy to try and draw some attention away from its potential shortcomings (what will the price of oil be in 2025, anyway, so we know if extra royalties cut in?) the real value of the Hebron thingy is its use in old-fashioned politics:

- There are two by-elections that clue up next week. yes, formal polling day is the 27th but we already know voting has been going on their under the farcical elections set-up in this province since before there were even candidates.

- Corporate Research Associates is in the field doing its quarterly survey work. Most of the questions are standard, but there are a bunch of interesting ones. Like most pressing problem facing Atlantic Canadians and which companies are the best corporate citizens. No sign of any obvious provincial government questions, at least in the versions reported to your humble e-scribbler.

Then again, in some quarters, CRA actually goes to the field with two separate polls. The common questions - the three CRA provincial politics ones reported in the media - are common to both. When CRA reports a sample of 800 some odd, that's a double poll month with the three public question results actually being glued together from two surveys rather than being reported as separate results.

Nothing says federal election like a politican handing out public cash.

Nothing says provincial politics like a bit of poll goosing and old-fashioned pork announcements.

Quick as that update: The Great Oracle of the Valley - a.k.a voice of he cabinet minister - has an online story that could have been clicked out by thumbs from the Hill. It contains all the elements: Announcement tomorrow. Deal reviewed by cabinet today (not mentioning the deal was done weeks ago). MOU expires on Thursday.

Ah, the drama of it all.

Ah for the old days when The Boss would drive into the parking lot on his way to The Hill and roll down the window so someone from the Oracle newsroom could stick a microphone through to record the latest utterances.

Here's a thought: if cabinet hasn't seen the deal at all until today, then what happens if one of them has a serious objection on a matter of substance, policy and/or principle?

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Only sheer political genius...

would think of using Kevin O'Brien as the stunt dummy for a demonstration of "fall protection" gear.

Joe Clarke almost impaling himself on a bayonet while inspecting troops. 

Jean Chretien in a funny helmet.

Kevin O'Brien taking a header off a house in St. Thomas Line.

Freakin' brilliant.

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The New Idiot Box

A few days ago, your humble e-scribbler was wandering through a second-hand book store he used to frequent in Kingston 20-odd years ago.

The city is roughly the size of St. John's but in the 1980s, the difference between the two cities could not have been more stark at least when it came to the number of book stores.  There used to be a half dozen new book stores and almost as many second-hand used book places along Princess Street, in the city's main shopping district downtown.

Today, it's down to an Indigo outlet with its trendiness, a locally-owned new-book store,  and another used store catering to a "higher-end" clientele. Down toward the bottom of the street, between Ben and Jerry's and a health food store, there's this tee shirt, a pair of jeans and comfortable sandals kinda place.

It's getting harder every year to stay open, according to the owner, as he filled out the receipt for a purchase. That comment started a chat about the changing reading habits of Kingstonians. The town is home to Queen's and the Royal Military College, giving the town a distinctly academic flavour.  The downtown shopping district, where all those bookstores used to be is in easy walking distance of the Queen's student ghetto housing and the cadets from RMC.

When comedy is trusted as news

From nyt.com, a profile of Jon Stewart and The Daily Show:

When Americans were asked in a 2007 poll by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press to name the journalist they most admired, Mr. Stewart, the fake news anchor, came in at No. 4, tied with the real news anchors Brian Williams and Tom Brokaw of NBC, Dan Rather of CBS and Anderson Cooper of CNN. And a study this year from the center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism concluded that “ ‘The Daily Show’ is clearly impacting American dialogue” and “getting people to think critically about the public square.”

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Universal Translator revealed

When it comes to federal politics, reporters and other observers sometimes  misunderstand the words the Premier uses.

It's really very simple. 

Whenever he says "Newfoundland and Labrador" or "we", he means "Danny Williams".

That's it.

The confusion comes from the fact that most people do not consider the entire province, all its people and their collective interest to be the same thing nor do they believe it is embodied in one person.

By contrast, he does. 

As in words after the 2007 general election to the effect that "I believe in my heart and soul that I embody the heart and soul of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians."

It was a real "l'etat? C'est moi!" kinda moment.

So take a quote like this one:

"From a Green Shift perspective, as well, Newfoundland and Labrador is just basically waiting to see where all the cards are going to fall here."

On the face of it, this is a pretty ludicrous statement given that in the same scrum, the Premier said that "[t]his election is not going to be decided strictly on Green Shift."

He's right on that point.

The election isn't going to be decided on one issue.

And the Green Shift was never intended to be the silver bullet of the next federal election.

The Green Shift is a niche policy designed to move a certain type of voter. It won't appeal to everyone, but it will appeal to enough to make a difference here and there.  Coupled with other similar niche ideas, it could tip enough ridings to propel the Liberals to a minority or majority government.

The whole concept is taken from the Conservative strategy in 2005/06.

That's why the Connies fear it so much they are  apoplectic trying to make the Green Shift some vision of the apocalypse.

But if you go back and apply the universal translator to that quote, you can see that, in fact, Danny Williams is waiting to see how the field shapes up on policies before he endorses one party or any party.

Now the quote makes perfect sense.

That's what the Premier did in 2004.  He waited to see how the offers looked and he went with the one he liked.

He did it again in 2005/06, endorsing Stephen Harper and the Conservatives even though the Layton New Democrats said yes to every single thing the Premier asked for in his Letter to Santa 2005.

But here's the thing:  in both federal elections, the Premier's impact on voters even in Newfoundland and Labrador produced a marginal effect.

In 2004, he made it tough for the local volunteers to turn out for the Conservative brethren.  They lacked party workers, but the Conservatives who won, did so in usual Conservative seats.

Individual voters still turned out and voted federally for their own choice in a secret ballot, in many cases, despite what their provincial vote may have looked like or what the Premier wanted. 

In 2005/06, it became safe for provincial Tories not only to work on Connie campaigns but to run for them as well.

But don't forget one crucial point:  the resulting seat count was exactly the same as in 2004. There were changes in voter turn-out but the overall impact of the Premier's position and intervention was marginal at best.

So while Danny Williams may like to answer reporters questions about the next federal election, it's doubtful the federal Conservatives are taking him too seriously.  Aside from the impact in his own province, Danny Williams just doesn't travel well.  Sure there are people who crop up here and there saying lovely things about him, but - as with every other provincial premier since the dawn of time - he just doesn't carry much beyond his own province. 

That's because  - fundamentally - Danny Williams is not identified as speaking on national issues from a national perspective.  He's not even really speaking on a plane that connects with voters in Dauphin or Deseronto.

He's a niche player, with a niche impact. 

Like a Green Shift.

The only difference among the federal parties is that - rightly or wrongly - the federal Conservatives have taken the measure of the niche impact based on two kicks at the can in the recent past. 

The New Democrats seem to have missed the lessons.  So too have some of the local Liberals  - candidates and back roomers alike - who want to court Danny in the  belief his blessing will be all that is needed to change their fortunes.

But the Connies? 

They've decided the impact isn't enough to worry about, either locally or nationally.  To get the point, think about that famous Stephen Harper quote from October 2006 in Gander. 

You know.

The one that came only from the Premier himself.  Something like "We don't need Newfoundland and Labrador."

Apply the Universal Translator.

Now you understand why DW is so pissed.

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An old Connie ploy

Create a dysfunctional situation where one didn't have to exist and then crusade to fix it.

It's a bit like backing a dodgy proposition which you, yourself, had previously rejected, and then crusading against the position you endorsed.

If this keeps up, Harper will pledge to change the rules on election spending so that something like the in-out scam never happens again.

Sheesh, where have we heard that one before?

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Oil prices still on the decline

With some renewed strength in the American dollar, coupled with decreased demand, the price of crude oil for September delivery closed the week at US$111.

“The dollar is on fire again so that's causing people to re-evaluate everything,” said Phil Flynn, oil analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. “It means oil prices could fall dramatically. We could see prices get to double digits if this continues.”

An OPEC forecast of lower demand also put downward pressure on prices.

Newfoundland and Labrador finance department officials may not be sweating yet, but if the trend continues to the end of the year, their forecast average price of $87 might not hold up. 

Even if the provincial government skates through the current fiscal year, it may have to restrain spending over the next couple of years or - a more likely scenario - boost borrowing to fuel the spending spree.

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Some in-out scheme highlights

While the conventional media have been fixated on the Connie's deliberate effort to undermine parliamentary committees by co-ordinating a refusal by witnesses to testify,  some details of the in-out scheme were entered by witnesses who did show up.

Here's one excerpt from the testimony of a former provincial cabinet minister.  Two other witnesses, from the campaign in random-Burin-St. Georges gave similar evidence:  money sent down from Ottawa on condition it be sent back a couple of days later. No sign that any national advertising ever appeared using the taglines of the local candidates.

Hon. Charles Hubbard: Where was the money spent?

Mr. Joe Goudie (Conservative candidate in Labrador; former provincial cabinet minister): We have no idea.

Again, I remind you and the honourable committee that I, personally, was not aware of this until after the campaign was completed and really, in any detail, not until the news report came out in April. The money was not spent by us.

    Mrs. Singleton [campaign manager]and Mr. Barnes were both.... More specifically, Mr. Barnes, my official agent, was directed by a gentleman, Mr. Hudson of the Conservative Party of Canada, to, once funds had been transferred to our account.... It was explained that 60% of that amount could then be claimed on our election return, which seemed unusual but nevertheless they were following directions, and that the amount of money transferred to our account would then have to be returned to the Conservative Party of Canada as soon as possible.

Hon. Charles Hubbard: To clarify, if you gave somebody $10,000 and wanted it back.... They could claim that $10,000 in the expense, which they didn't spend. Do you mean to tell me you'd get $6,000 back from the Government of Canada as a result?

Mr. Joe Goudie: As I understand it, that was the implication of the explanation. Yes.

Hon. Charles Hubbard: Where would that $6,000 eventually wind up?

Mr. Joe Goudie: In the campaign account, as far as I know. I know nothing other than that.

Hon. Charles Hubbard: It almost sounds, Mr. Goudie, like a very fast way of making money.

Mr. Joe Goudie: It sounds that way.

No wonder someone wanted to shift the media coverage to something other than testimony.

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Big changes coming at Grand Falls paper mill

Changing global economic circumstances for the paper industry have been pressing on the industry in Newfoundland and Labrador for years.

The future of the AbitibiBowater mill at Grand Falls-Windsor, established in 1905, may be known as early as next week, according to CBC News.  This follows an extensive review within the newly merged paper company of all its assets.

There are a few things to bear in mind:

1. If the AbitibiBowater announcement comes next week either right before or right after the Hebron announcement it will likely be swamped by Hebron.  Stephenville wasn't a political crisis in the province because it happened out of easy camera range of the St. John's-based local media.  The story just won't register, especially if Hebron is a bright shiny object waved around to distract attention.
2. "AbitibiBowater manager Brad Pelley said that inside a year, the company has to turn the mill into an operation that's not losing money."  Now there's a quote that doesn't even come close to telling the story.  Despite whatever changes have been made at the GFW mill, surely to mercy, the mill is suddenly in better financial shape because of the heavy provincial government subsidies that flowed in the wake of the Stephenville closure.  Like $30 million of flow over two years to Corner Brook and GFW.
3. Will the provincial government be as combative and feisty about downsizing or machine closings at GFW as it has been in the past?  Here's another policy carryover from the Grimes crowd to Williams' crew: threaten legal action (like stripping all the company's timber licenses) if one of the two machines at GFW is closed, regardless of the economic costs. 

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Serious lobster conservation projects in New Brunswick

Homarus Inc is just one example of what the Maritime Fishermen's Union is doing to improve lobster stocks in the waters around New Brunswick.

It's a non-profit collabrative effort of government, fishermen and the private sector aimed at several objectives:

1. Increase scientific knowledge surrounding lobster biology and habitat;
2. Provide an educational tool for raising awareness amongst stakeholders concerning the need for sustaining the resource, protecting the habitat and rehabilitating lobster stocks; and,
3. Introduce practical and effective approaches to enhancing lobster habitat and lobster stocks in our coastal waters.

A stand-alone corporation devoted to a single ocesan species with enormous economic value: now there's a direction the FFAW should be taking rather than clawing a paltry ten grand from the provincial government in order to have local lobster fishermen keep records of their catches.

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And then there's the scandal at Tammany on Gower

This Telegram editorial should be enough to cause someone to intervene here - someone wake DaveDenine - or for the voters to turf out the entire crowd at City hall next time around.

Every one of them, including the newest of the noobs is implicated in the highly questionable act of firing the internal auditor.

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So where's the in-out scam in the local headlines?

Odd, dontcha think, that the local media haven't done much with the Conservative party in-out advertising scheme during the last election?

This is a very large story with a large number of local players. For instance,

Cynthia Downey, who ran in Newfoundland, said her campaign could have made much better use of the $7,700 transferred by the party in and out of her account.

Logic would suggest the story would get some play in some of the local media, but so far it's meritted hardly a whisper.

For some unknown reason, the story has been bumped, sometimes in favour of bumpf.

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Gas went up?

How much more evidence do we need that the petroleum products pricing office is a massive scam that must be ended?

Gasoline prices in Newfoundland and Labrador went up on Thursday.

Now gasoline sells as a commodity separately from crude, but still, there's something slightly perverse about a jump in retail prices at a time when prices for both commodities are declining across North America both on current sales and on futures.  At best, in the short term, prices are staying level, but except in very rare circumstances are they increasing in major centres.

Sure there was a jump yesterday, but the public utilities board's gas fixing scheme isn't sensitive enough to pick up a change a day before it's regular price adjustment.  Beyond that the futrues price for gasoline is about one dollar a gallon below current retail prices, even after the eight cent jump.

On top of that analysts don't expect that jump to last with the cotinued drop in American demand.

So what gives?

Essentially you have an entrenched bureaucracy which, if it does nothing else, will work hard to justify its existence. Take a look at the scheme's website and you won't see a definition of a positive public policy enefit there anywhere:  the board exists to enforce the Act that created it.  That's it.  Justifying that existence is pretty easy, but the justification only makes sense in the world of bureaucracy;  heck there's probably a buggy whip safety agency out there somewhere still enforcing its legislation.

Meanwhile, over on the political side, there isn't a single politican on the ogvernment benches will to tackle the issue.  The issue isn't important enough to merit attention by the Premier's office since, for the most part consumers haven't kicked up a fuss yet.

If it isn't being talked up on the voice of the cabinet minister, cabinet's can't hear it.

Maybe that's the key:  If people realised that the provincial government sets gasoline prices in Newfoundland and Labrador, then maybe they'd start pressing the provincial government to scrap the gasoline pricing fixing scheme.

If they started making that cry on the Great Oracle of the Valley, then just maybe there'd be some action.

Don't count on it though.  There are too many established political interests behind this scam to let it go that easily.

If publicly outcry was enough, the provincial government still wouldn't be pursuing its illegal policy on the Memorial University president, enabled by the board of regents.

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Hunter-gatherers association reinvents lobster pot with prov gov cash

On the face of it, this looks like a great project: a bunch of provincial government cash to pay a bunch of lobster fishermen to track their catches.

"This project is an example of harvesters taking a direct role in the stewardship of the fishery and having input into the management of the resource," said the Honourable Trevor Taylor, acting Minister of Fisheries and Aquaculture. "As such, our government is pleased to approve funding for this initiative. This is important work because it is the most extensive attempt to date to profile lobster stocks."

Ummm.

Not exactly.

The fishermen involved in this provincial government project can't make any decisions about the lobster fishery.  They can't have any meaningful input on quotas, season or anything else.

That's because all they are going to do is write down in a notebook how many lobsters they landed (excluding the unofficial ones to be sold under the table later on), how big they were and so on.

Now while there is lots of talk about this whole thing being scientific, note that it is being run by the Fish, Food and Allied Workers Union.  That's right, the union which represents the people who will be getting the cash for making notes in a book.

There's no mention of Memorial University, the Marine Institute or any other crowd of scientists.

There's just the people who catch lobsters and their union.

Now for an example of fishermen having real control over their livelihood, take a look at the Eastport Marine Protected Area, now expanded to five sites along the northeast coast.

As for science, the whole approach in these lobster management areas is based on science.  It has been since they were established.

If the provincial fisheries department and the hunter-gatherers union really wanted to get interested in fisheries management, conservation and a scientifically based approach, they'd be working with the federal fisheries crowd. 

This provincial initiative doesn't look like anything significant.  It looks more like make-work in another guise or a political statement. 

After all, it's only $10,000.

The Newfoundland and Labrador Legacy Nature Trust already administered over half a million in federal cash on one study four years ago.

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The changes at Humber Valley

1.  Layoff of 40 staff, as Newfound NV looks to stick to its core business lines.

2.  A brief profile of the new boss at Newfound NV.

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Some Harper observations

1.  Anyone else notice that the not-campaigning Stephen Harper spent all his time in Fabian Manning's Avalon riding?  Seems a bit odd since there are supposedly two Connie incumbents seeking re-election.  H Harper never did anything with St. John's South-Mount Pearl except pass through it.

2. Harper's comments at the Renews-Cappahayden come home year celebrations were remarkably unremarkable.  Like incredibly flat, boring, generic. Still, he got a loud and enthusiastic welcome.  That night be worrying some people in the province who still believe the Anybody But Conservative thing had a meaning left in it [Hint: it doesn't.  Williams will personally stay out of the federal election, restricting himself to making comments favouring the Dippers.  The rest of the local Tories will work for the Connies - as they did in the last election -  if they feel so inclined.]

3. But the unremarkable remarks warranted a news release. Of course there's no chance these guys are worried there'll be an election.

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'The national interest" and marketing imperatives: a jarring symmetry of excuses

Submitted for your consideration:

“I think the viewers should be able to understand that, in the national interest, for the perception of the country, this was an extremely important and serious matter,” Chen Qigang, the ceremony's chief music director, said in an interview with a Beijing radio station.

compared with:

“But we also believe strongly in ensuring strong and visionary leadership for the people’s university. I cannot stress enough the importance of Memorial University to the educational, social and economic future of Newfoundland and Labrador. Just as the Board of Regents has an obligation and a duty to find the appropriate candidate, so does the government as mandated by the Memorial University Act. We take this obligation seriously."

and...

During a scrum on the search for a new MUN president last week, Danny Williams told  reporters that the province puts $300 million into MUN and that he's asked past presidents "to get more involved with government to promote the interests of the province."

Apparently, coupled with marketing considerations, the national interest can justify fakery and a bunch of other things too.

The Chinese just have more practice at rationalising these things in fewer words.

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Memorial University crisis: it just keeps getting worse

Danny Williams, former Rhodent, should have known that academics are not ones to take his usual blather as if it were gospel.

No surprise therefore, that Memorial University professors are turning the Premier's lack of logic against him in the Memorial University crisis.

And just to really make it bad, they even point to academic freedom:

"If, in some way, we're supposed to be doing specific, applied bits of research, you know, for the province rather than following our interests then there are questions of ... academic freedom looming," says [politicial scientist Steve] Wolinetz.

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Nothing says federal election, the Harper version

When the Connie head honcho comes to town bearing public cash, you know there's an election on the horizon.

Related: Clyde Jackman may want the feds to dump $3.0 million into the Cupids celebration, but the people from Cupids are likely wondering why Jackman and his cabinet colleagues have been so stingy on the provincial contribution.

The provincial government contribution to this monumental event is a paltry $2.0 million.

Given that the feds like to fund these things on a 50/50 basis, Jackman knows up front that the feds will only match the provincial cash. If he's got a beef, then he should take it up with himself.

Update: Harper dropped $3.14 million on the Cupids celebration. That's $1.14 million more than the provincial government committed - but only contingent on federal cash coming..

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Some political creativity

An Obama mash-up [tip of the straw sun hat to John Gushue]:

 

And then there's a Tony Blair one done before Blair resigned:

Bring in the Auditor General

While the crowd at Tammany on Gower are fighting over the recent firing of an internal auditor, they are missing a fairly obvious solution to the problem of ensuring that the City's books are well-watched:  let John Noseworthy have a look at them.

The City of St. John's has been run for far too long as a closed shop without much in the way of public oversight or scrutiny.  The current council - every single one of them - has yet to demonstrate the slightest concern for transparency and accountability particularly when it comes to the way city council spends public money. 

Sure there has been plenty of talk, especially from Ron Ellsworth.  But Ellsworth's already shown himself to be good at talk, but not much when it comes to the action of disclosure.  Heck, when confronted with a simple question about a political poll he'd commissioned, Ellsworth couldn't figure out whether to fib or fess up.  So he did both, first fibbing and then confessing he was behind it.

Talk is cheap. 

If Ellsworth and his cronies at ToG want to earn public confidence, they'd start by letting John Noseworthy audit the city books. 

At the same time, since they've made such a public spectacle of the internal auditor, it is incumbent on city officials to disclose the details of what went on. They will howl at the prospect and try and find every legal means to keep the whole mess under wraps, but the whole episode stinks to high heavens.

A little sunlight will help disinfect the place.

Something says, though, the council and senior officials will be doing everything possible to put up blinds, all the while talking a good game about the benefits of solar energy.

It's what city council does.

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Come by Chance expansion in works

It is far easier to expand an existing refinery than to try a greenfield project.

That's something Bond Papers has contended since NLRC first floated its plan for a 300,000 barrel per day project that is now in bankruptcy protection, without having turned sod one.

Meanwhile, Harvest Energy is looking at a $2.0 billion expansion of its existing Come By Chance refinery that would take production from 115K bpd to 190K bpd.

Harvest Energy is now looking for a partner in the project. 

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The Great Government Consumer Rip-Off

The 2003 general election did not herald a new approach, a new era in public policy or much "new" of any other sort except elites.

That's a point your humble e-scribbler has made several times and it bears repeating. In many respects, the Progressive Conservatives under Danny Williams have continued policies from Roger Grime's Liberals often times without any changes at all, let alone even cosmetic ones.

One of the most obvious examples of the continuation of Grimes policy is the consumer rip-off otherwise known as petroleum products pricing.

Regular readers will be familiar with the view around these parts of the provincially-run price-fixing scheme that masquerades as some sort of consumer protection.

It doesn't protect consumers from anything at all, since by interfering in the marketplace, the price fixing scheme serves only to slow the benefit to consumers of falling gasoline prices.

Like right now.

On Tuesday, crude oil hit US$112, its lowest close in three months.

Consumers are not paying the same price per litre for gasoline that they were three months ago.

In fact, oil dropped dramatically just last week, but the petroleum office did not lower prices a single penny. gasoline sits, on average about 12 cents per litre higher in Newfoundland than across Ontario, but if you look at the localised breakdowns the price gap is disgustingly wide.  In glorious Kingston, Ontario, where your humble e-scribbler is currently enjoying the rain, gasoline is retailing for $1.17 per litre.

The situation is not far off what obtained three years ago but even then it was fairly obvious that the marketplace was delivering price breaks to consumers that the government-orchestrated scam could not.  heck, at a time when prices were dropping across North America only a few weeks ago, Newfoundlanders and Labradorians enjoyed a price increase, courtesy of the government folly.

Now when this whole fraud was foisted on the public, the politicians could be forgiven if they were simply suckered into it as a vote ploy.  Some of them might have even been fooled into believing the silly arguments used to justify it that somehow consumers would be protected from the "evil" oil companies if the provincial government established maximum prices for (some) petroleum products,

There isn't really the same excuse any more and there certainly hasn't been since 2003.  After only a couple of years of operation, the folly of government-organized oil price fixing was evident, at least to consumers.

The argument for government price-fixing is even harder to swallow now that the provincial government has joined the ranks of the oil companies. 

Consider if you will, that simple point when (if?) the Hebron deal gets signed.  Sitting at the table will be major oil companies who produce crude oil and who retail gasoline across North America. The petroleum pricing scheme was supposed to protect consumers from their supposed "gouging".

Sitting right next to them will be a new oil producer who, at least in this province, not only produces crude oil but who also legally fixes the retail price for gasoline products.  We just don't know where the government share of the crude will be refined and sold, but what's to stop it from coming back to this province or - if the provincial government gets involved further with NLRC - never leaves it?

It's a sweet set up.

But not for consumers.

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When the last seam is welded...

Passing environmental approvals is one thing, but as the NLRC refinery project showed, there's a lot more to building a greenfield project than some might have you believe.

Let's just wait until the last seam is welded before we get too excited about a liquid natural gas project that - as of right now - exists only on paper.

NLRC passed the federal environmental milestone on April 30 2008 and was under bankruptcy protection less than two months later.

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Oil prices continue fall

Crude oil hit US$114 a barrel Monday on the New York Mercantile Exchange down from the record high of $147 set only a month ago.

The Monday price was the lowest closing price for crude since May 1. It continued the fall in price from last week.

The folly of budgeting based on volatile energy prices would seem obvious. Crude oil prices have dropped 22% in four weeks.

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New headquarters and military info system for CF by 2014

The Canadian Forces will have a new operational headquarters complete with an integrated information management system by 2014, according to a story by David Pugliese in the Monday Ottawa Citizen.

The computer network to be acquired will "fuse" intelligence data and information into a package easily accessible by commanders in Ottawa, across the country and overseas.

That project, known as the joint information and intelligence fusion capability, will merge large amounts of information, including video, photographs, map displays and other data as it is transmitted from various sources.

In some cases, officers would be able to watch live imagery from robot aerial drones flying on missions in Afghanistan.

Estimated combined cost of the projects are upwards of $150 million.

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Pull the other one, the MUN version

His latest version of events doesn't match any of the other versions, including his own earlier version.

There is no effort to pull back fro Joan Burke's insistance that the new preisdent will be appointed by cabinet.

Still, the implausibility of the different versions of government interference in the MUN crisis doesn't stop the faithful from crowing that it "does clear the Premier of any allegation of interfering with the process."

Nope.

Not even an attempt to reconcile the new story with the old ones; just blind acceptance at face value.

Take it with a grain of salt.

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Cameron Inquiry deadline extended to March 1, 2009

The order-in-council was gazetted on July 28, 2008 with absolutely no mention from the provincial government.

The commission must hand in its final report by March 1 and conclude all business by April 1, 2009.

The original deadline for both the report and work was July 30, 2008.

If memory serves, justice minister Jerome Kennedy still hasn't released the correspondence related to the Hughes Inquiry he was using to justify the Premier's earlier attacks on the inquiry.

Could it be that, as the Telegram editorial recently noted, the correspondence doesn't support Kennedy's version of what occurred?

Bond Papers will gladly post the entire correspondence record, if the justice minister will supply the documents.

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Eddy shoulda bought tickets

From the voice of the cabinet minister, last week, as the Memorial University crisis ramped up:

Premier Danny Williams has not been available for interviews this week,  but a spokesperson says he supports Education Minister Joan Burke. [Emphasis added]

From the Telegram's Monday editorial:

CBC reported the minister [Joan Burke] had departed Thursday for an urgent attendance at an Eagles concert in Moncton, N.B. - VIP grandstand tickets $249, "plus taxes and applicable service charges." The CBC concluded a radio interview with Burke on Thursday by playing the Eagles' "Desperado," which starts with the line: "Desperado - why don't you come to your senses?" Nice edgy touch, national broadcaster. [Emphasis added]

From the Moncton Times and Transcript:

Four private jets, three for bands and one belonging to Newfoundland Premier and multimillionaire businessman Danny Williams, brought more than $100 million worth of glamour to the humble tarmac of the Greater Moncton International Airport Saturday night. [Emphasis added]

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What happens after every climax?

Quick.

Without looking it up or asking your own yaks-milk-is-pink fountain of otherwise useless information:

1.  Name the three astronauts on Apollo 12.
2.  Name one of the astronauts on Apollo 14.
3.  How about the three on Apollo 18? 
4.  Was there an Apollo 18?

Don't feel bad. 

As amazing as it seems, few people know much about one of the most spectacular achievements of the human species:  putting people on the moon even for brief stays.

Even at the time, public interest in space travel faded not long after Apollo 11 reached the moon and Buzz Aldrin and Neil Armstrong bounced around on its surface in July 1969.

Now think about last spring's provincial budget.  For all the magicality and splendiferousness of it, the whole thing garnered the government maybe 48 hours of half-decent media coverage.  The punters didn't really talk it up much either, except maybe the bootie call of a thousand bucks for every new member of the race brought into the world.

Instead, the news and much public commentary these past eight or months have been filled with less than happy stuff for the provincial government.

Part of that is the natural shift in public expression that takes place with any government that's been in office more than a few months.  By five years people will naturally change gears from cheering to either moaning or indifference. As Brian said to the ex-leper:  "There's no pleasing some people."  And more to the point, people just aren't wired to endlessly praise government or feel good about what's going on.  They like to bitch.

Another part has been the series of events that would actually warrant some public unhappiness.  Pick an issue.  There isn't one of them - contrary to the view of at least one person on the cbc.ca/nl website comments - that isn't a legitimate news story.

Another part of the current media environment, at least when it comes to good news, is the simple fact that when you've already announced good news, the re-announcement of the announcement of the news just loses its grip.

People spent years getting ready for men to walk on the moon.  They followed the development of the project.  The vicariously shared the highs like all the successful Mercury and Gemini missions and they shared the sorrows, like the deaths of three astronauts aboard Apollo 1.  But once Neil and Buzz put toe one on the moon, that was the climax of the whole thing. 

After a climax of any kind, it's all down hill from there.

Last spring's budget was a big unsurprise.  Good news budget after good news budget and astonishing surpluses (even if not quite surpluses after all) piled on surpluses just get a bit repetitive after a while.  Imagine if Cleary and the Red Wings win the cup next year how much excitement there'll be.

Hebron may wind up being kinda the same thing.  When it didn't happen, well that was news.  It had all the elements, good and not so good:  controversy, power, drama, money, conflict, disappointment.

When the Premier announced a memorandum of understanding on the project last August, in polling season and right in the middle of the longest undeclared election campaign in provincial history, there was excitement.  People talked about it for weeks after.

So when the final Hebron deal is announced in the middle of a couple of by-elections and during polling season alter this month, don't be surprised if it is a media flurry lasting all of a couple of days.  Odds are it will lead the news that night, but by the next day expect something else to hit. In short order, it will become the Apollo 12 of government announcements.

Now that's not to say the final deal won't be good news.  It pretty much will be, unless something happened since last August to make - for instance - the local benefits potential is less than first appeared. We won't know the impact of the altered royalty structure until well after first oil, which is likely to take place sometime closer to 2020 than not.

But you see, Hebron's already been announced once last August.  Then it was,  in essence,  re-announced in June. For all the hoopla that will accompany the media event, the people directly affected by Hebron are just waiting for the whistle to signal the start so they can get working.

And unless there's something else coming along behind it that hasn't been talked up and talked over for years, odds are the next big announcement will have the same news impact.

It's just what happens after every climax.

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Oh yeah, Pam's fried...just like a whole raft more

Telegram editor Pam Frampton has been writing about the Memorial University thing for some time now.

Her column on Sunday is not for the faint of heart.

She's fried.

Pissed would be a better term.

And she's got good reason, since she's discovered that sometimes people in government like to dance on the extremely fine meaning of words. They'll answer the question you asked - literally - but not even think about giving the answer to the question they know you were really driving at.

In the media relations business that sort of thing is something you do rarely. It's the kind of stuff you save for when they ask you about invasions from Mars and you are sitting on the body of a Venusian. No sez you, no Martians. The only justifiable motive for that kind of semantic dancing, in other words, is something of supreme national importance.

Even then a simple response like "we don't discuss national security issues" is way better than what amounts to a lie by omission:

In June, long before the Globe and Mail published its speculative piece about what was going on behind the scenes of the stalled presidential search process, I asked Joan Burke straight out: "Has MUN's board of regents, acting on the recommendation of the presidential search committee, brought any names forward for cabinet's/the premier's consideration?"

Her response: "We have had no correspondence from the board of regents and the presidential committee."

Really? So how did Minister Burke know there were two shortlisted candidates winnowed out from a longer list by the search committee?

According to Burke's public relations specialist, Nora Daly, "The minister became aware of the short (list) last winter/spring through routine contact with the chair of the board of regents."

Well, golly, I'm no education minister, but to me "routine contact" certainly falls under the definition of correspondence.

The problem with this sort of too-cute-by-half stuff is that it doesn't erode credibility, it smashes it with a battle axe.

Pam Frampton just won't trust Joan Burke and her colleagues ever again on anything. Sure there have been plenty of examples of other people being jerked off over the past few years, but until it happens to you, there's always the temptation to think it isn't really as bad as others portray it.

Then it happens to you.

And you wind up being done browner than a wedgie left in the deep fryer too long.

No amount of malt vinegar and ketchup will make that taste disappear.

And it won't disappear.

Part of what the public have been seeing over the past six to eight months in Newfoundland and Labrador has been the dismantling of the very comfortable situation between the news media and the government. Some would say it's lasted too long anyway, but basically, it stayed extremely positive for government civilized as long as reporters didn't feel they were being frigged with too much.

In some respects the change in reporting mirrors the considerable volume of critical public comment coming in the online spaces. Some of it might be planted, but with the opposition parties in the state they are in, they'd be organizational miracle workers if they could sustain the variety and intensity of the stuff turning up so far in 2008. People aren't shy to voice their disquiet as they might have been before 2007. The cause is irrelevant; it's just notable that there's is such a change.

None of this means that the government will collapse tomorrow. it just means the news media and the public have changed. Government will have to shift itself and start responding differently to the new environment than they have been.

Otherwise we are witnessing that start of something which could get quite ugly. It's not like we haven't seen that happen before. Reporters who haven't been able to get the Premier on the phone even though they know he's in town might ask their gray-haired colleagues about the days when they couldn't get Peckford at all even the Premier's press secretary didn't answer his phone messages.

Much depends on the man behind the curtain and whether he really plans to pack it in next year, as he suggested in 2006. Danny Williams might just tough the whole thing out for a few months and leave everything to his cabinet to cope with, if they wanted to. That would possibly meet his needs but, frankly, the long term prospects for his party would just get dimmer with each unanswered e-mail.

All of that just remains to be seen.

All we can say today is that Pam is fried. And if Pam is fried, things are not good for government and its relations with news media.

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The pack politics of ambition

Politics is a strange thing.

There's a lot of individualism and ego but at the same time there's some really obvious group behaviour within the party pack.

The ambitious ones are always hungry to move up in status. 

Nothing surprising in that.  That's what ambitious people do.

There's nothing wrong with ambition. That's what keeps the blood pumping in a party that otherwise might be mistaken for dead.

Joan Burke for example, is one of a couple of the current crowd who fancies herself and is fancied by some as an eventual alpha to replace the alpha currently running every pack around the province.

Jerome is another one.

These ambitious betas will not challenge the alpha outright. Rather, they actually copy the alpha in many respects, especially speech patterns and attitudes.

Most obviously, they become supremely loyal:  they will do and say anything the alpha demands, no matter what, since currying favour with the alpha raises their own status within the pack in the meantime. 

They'll even try to anticipate the alphas demands so they can be ready to satisfy him immediately and appear therefore all that much more loyal within the pack.

No surprise then that someone familiar with Joe Smallwood would consider Burke to be aping one of the biggest political alphas in the province's history.

"The way Burke is acting is as if the 1973 amendments never took place," says [retired Memorial University head librarian Richard] Ellis. "It's a little bit ironic for a Progressive Conservative to be harkening back to Smallwoodian legislation."

Ellis had responsibility at one time for the Smallwood archives, among other things, so when it comes to the recent past, Ellis would know a thing or two.

He's off by a few decades but the idea's the same.

Danny Williams is the one channeling Joey Smallwood, either deliberately or inadvertently.  And, by the transitive property, Burke is channeling Smallwood, but only doing it through Williams.

She's adds some ruffles and flourishes of her own to her public speaking - the completely flat affect in her voice, for one -  but the attitude behind the words is unmistakable:  this is the way things are because I said so.  Period.

We likely won't be seeing any ticking right shoulders on the education minister soon and neither will she likely develop less harsh speaking voices  - at least without professional coaching.  But that's really just packaging.

What you can expect are more of what we've seen over the past couple of weeks.  It's really the same Joan Burke we've seen in other cock-ups or controversies in her department already - like the Eastern School district alleged fraud case that cropped up while her current parliamentary assistant was running the school board -but for some reason it just stands out more in the current Memorial University crisis. 

Joan Burke, the alpha wannabe will stick even harder to her guns under pressure because that's what the alpha would do (or what he wants) and in order to be loyal and eventually replace him, the covetous beta must be more alpha than alpha.

And like all ambitious politicians, Burke like knows there a pattern to how the future alphas move around government and move up within cabinet.

If memory serves, she has done or is doing her stints in financial management on treasury board.  She's the government House leader which gives her more parliamentary experience - such as the House is these days - and more experience managing her colleagues in cabinet.

Running the big social departments would be crucial to her future.  Having run education for the past three years, Burke is likely angling to replace Ross Wiseman in the next shuffle, whenever it comes. 

And if she gets the promotion to health, as a number of future alphas and presumptive alphas did in previous administrations  [think Grimes and Aylward most recently] putting Burke in charge of health care would be a sign of her heightened status within the pack.

There's no guarantee health is a stepping stone to greatness.  Look at poor Tommy Osborne.  From minister of the largest department in government one day where all he had to do was follow orders and not shag up, to government backbencher the next via a castrated justice department in between.

The only way Osborne could have been handed a bigger slap in the goolies was if he'd been given permits and licenses instead of justice on the way out the door.

But in the current crisis in education, Joan Burke has really done anything to diminish her status as one of the betas most loyal to the alpha.

She's done all the things she needs to do to prove her status.  Burke will be rewarded, at least in the short term with an alpha who will back her to the hilt.  He will go to the ends of the Earth for those who follow his orders tirelessly.

When he emerges from escorting second place essay winners around, the Premier will likely lash out at everyone and everyone.  Everyone that is, except Burke, who will be commended for her hard work in the best interests of the province and the people.

Yada, yada, yada.

In the politics of the pack, loyalty counts above all else.

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The market for oil and gas support industries

The real key to long-term economic benefit from oil and gas is not in revenues flowing to a state-owned oil company, but from the development of a healthy, innovative support and service sector.

Oil industry consultant Gerrit Maureau thinks the overseas opportunities for petroleum service companies have never been greater.

The hungry market is with foreign national oil companies (NOCs).

Foreign NOCs are so hungry for technology and training that Maureau believes a good service company will almost certainly find a market overseas if its sales effort is well-informed. But success is unlikely to come cheap, he warns: "Above all, be persistent. Canadians have developed an unfortunate reputation overseas for showing up once and never coming back." In his experience, a half dozen visits may be needed before a significant breakthrough occurs.

The rest of the Maureau profile can be found at

DOB Magazine.

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The best and the worst

From the Star Phoenix (Saskatoon), a perspective on the province and its politics:

It did not present a very becoming picture of the premier, certainly not of one who until recently at least, commanded the support of 70 per cent of the province's population.

The premier's less attractive side recently re-emerged when his government intervened in the selection process for the new president of Memorial University.

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Internet Explorer problems when loading? Try the mirror Bond Papers.

For the past 24 hours, some people have been reporting problems when trying to access Bond Papers using Internet Explorer.

This only applies to the blogspot.com address.

There are no problems loading bondpapers.blogspot.com using Firefox or other browsers.

If you are committed to your Microsoft browser and are having trouble reading Bond at the blogspot address, please try the mirror site at:

bondpapers.wordpress.com

Those of you reading Bond Papers via Blackberry, iPhone, Smartphone or other mobile device may also find the WordPress a little friendlier.

For those who want to shift from Internet Explorer, you can download the latest version of Firefox at the Mozilla site.

EGH

A small but significant distinction

The Telegram's Russell Wangersky gives cabinet some good advice this rainy Saturday in order to avoid what he describes as "boneheaded mistakes".
Around these parts, we'd make one small quibble over this otherwise apt comparison with the current Memorial situation:

Stymied at the CNLOPB, Wells miraculously became the best choice for head of the PUB - oh, wait. He was the only choice considered. Unlike at MUN, the Public Utilities Board job didn't bother with the niceties of anything like a messy old search for the best candidates.

Turns out there was a messy old search for candidates, after all, as Bond Papers reported last February.
Andy Wells doesn't appear to have been a candidate since there was no mention of the competition or of Wells winning said merit-based selection process after the initial ads appeared in the Telegram and elsewhere. The Public Service Commission parsed the details of the thing in such a way as to leave more questions than the parsing answered.
With that little piece of information corrected, Wangersky's piece  - particularly the Andy bit - now makes even more sense.

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The Looking Glass Cabinet

"When I use a word," Humpty Dumpty said in a rather scornful tone," it means just what I choose it to mean -- neither more nor less."

"The question is," said Alice, "whether you can make words mean so many things."

"The question is," said Humpty Dumpty, "which is to be master -- that's all."

Through the Looking Glass: and what Alice found there

Tom Marshall must have received his law degree from the University of Wonderland.

You know.

The place Alice went.

She ran into Tom's old law prof, Humpty Dumpty, who first taught him that the words on the page are meaningless plastic things. 

Humpty Dumpty's lessons took.

Last week, education minister Joan Burke said that, in picking a new president for MUN, the university board of regents would send over a list of names and cabinet would make the appointment since - as the law provides, according to Burke - the president's job is a cabinet appointment.

Hang on there, said a number of people including Grenfell professor Dr. Paul Wilson who insist that the words in the law - 'the board of regents shall appoint a president" - doesn't mean that cabinet does the job.

Marshall, a former attorney general, insists that Wilson is being a stick-in-the-mud, and that Wilson is "not helping" the university.

There's that favourite government phrase "not helping" or "being unhelpful".

In this case, it would mean pointing out the obvious bankruptcy of the government position, but that's really a separate issue.

Marshall, sounding a bit like a 1960s hold-over, insisted that the professor was being square, Man.

What's interesting is the way Marshall (LLB, U Wonder) described Wilson's view:

Everyone is entitled to their view. He’s given his analysis. I consider his analysis a literal interpretation — a strict, constructionist interpretation. A proper interpretation of the legislation would have to consider the wording in context. When you consider the wording in context, the minister of Education plays a very important role.

"Strict, constructionist interpretation". 

You will note of course, that no where in Marshall's comment does he say that Wilson is actually wrong.  Not at all.

Not if you actually read what Marshall said:  according to Marshall, the legislation properly read with all the words in their context means that the education minister plays an important role in the process.

Marshall  - clever fellow - didn't define that role, however.  The role envisaged in the legislation is that the education minister takes the name of the appointed person to cabinet for approval.  That's the role.  it's largely administrative in nature.

And no where does it say cabinet picks, which is what Burke insisted she and her colleagues will be doing.

But still, according to Marshall,  Wilson is wrong because he is using a "strict, constructionist interpretation"?

Here's a simple solution.

Let's put this before a judge.

They are easy to find down on Duckworth Street.  Odds are, we could find one of them with a few spare minutes in between trips to the neighbourhood Timmies to hear the learned former attorney general appear on behalf of the Crown to argue the matter.  Now we'd be doing this no just to resolve the dispute between Marshall and Wilson, but to settle on the legality of the cabinet's move in this extremely important crisis.

The justices would likely fight over the chance to hear this one.

And they get paid to resolve disputes.

After all, government has been extremely successful in this Mad Hatter, March Hare approach to the things before.

There was the now famous October 2004 interview Danny Williams gave to the CBC's Carole MacNeil.  According to Williams, once the province didn't qualification for Equalization, clawbacks wouldn't be 100 per cent but zero., even though when the province qualified for just a fraction of a penny of federal handout, the clawback was 99.9999999 per cent.

Then there was Tom Rideout's classic time travel episode:

Consider Rideout's efforts to explain that while today might well have been June 14 when the bill was passed, tomorrow did not actually mean June 15. Rather it meant some date four months hence:

"Since Green didn't say the act comes into effect today, we, in consultation with him, said what can come into effect today comes into effect today, what needs time to come into effect tomorrow comes into effect tomorrow, and tomorrow is Oct. 9, 2007"

Or Marshall gamely trying to criticise Brian Peckford and in the process fibbing royally about the province's finances.

Or on legal matters, just ask Don Burridge, the current deputy attorney general and, odds are, the poor sod who would carry this threadbare Stanfield's of an argument downtown to see what others made of it.

Burridge is the extremely talented lawyer who was in the unfortunate position of having to carry forward government's argument in Ruelokke.  The government argument, one suspects, was dictated to him by the learned barristers in cabinet but he gamely laid it out.

They tried the argument that a clause in the 1985 Atlantic Accord which said the hiring tribunal's decision was binding on both the federal and provincial, governments really meant that the courts couldn't intervene in the matter.

Mr. Justice Halley loved that one, one suspects, so much so that he likely had to stab himself repeatedly with a fork under his robes so that the pain would keep him from rolling on the floor in laughter.

We all know the outcome of that foray into the courts.

All of this just goes to show just exactly how desperate the cabinet is to try and escape the Memorial mess they've created.  Tom Marshall is trotting out all sorts of verbiage to try and obscure things.

The problem for Marshall in this little drama  is that he is stuffed in the role played before by Burridge. He is carrying a preposterous argument and he knows it.

But if he is game, there are a few people wearing black robes in the later summer heat who will gladly sit and enjoy the government's revival of Through the Looking Glass or Alice in Wonderland.

We'd all enjoy the play immensely even if the outcome is predictable.

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Into the deep

The provincial government's crisis with Memorial University got just that much deeper today.

Op-ed pieces in the province's largest daily newspaper from two distinguished professors simply and succinctly laid out the problem in plain English. [Not available online]

As political science professor Steve Wolinetz wrote:

Simply put, universities can only function effectively when they are at arm's length from government or any single entity funding them. This not only ensures academic freedom and allows members of the university community to "speak truth to power," but also enables them to harness the creative energies of faculty, staff and students. Independence and autonomy are at the core of any university. It has enabled Memorial to explore vital issues and helped the province and its people grow and thrive.

Independence and autonomy are indeed at the core of any university and they are at the core of the current problem. By injecting herself into the selection process for a new president, education minister Joan Burke she has not stepped across an invisible but well-defined boundary, she has committed to completely ignore the law by making the presidential appointment a cabinet one instead of a decision of the board of regents, as the law provides. She has usurped the authority of the board to appoint the president, which in itself is an expression of the university's independence and autonomy.

Nor has no one outside cabinet and government back benches is able to ignore the evident contradiction between Burke's action in this case and the government's commitment to make Grenfell College "autonomous."

All that is pretty much old hat now, as this story ends its first of what may prove to be several weeks of political pain.

What made the hole Burke dug even deeper is the revelation in another op-ed piece - this time by former academic vice president and pro-chancellor Evan Simpson - that the university has been reduced, in effect, to the status of a Crown corporation or agency:

The university depends heavily upon its operating and capital grants from the government. Memorial used to receive block grants and set its priorities within the financial limits they imposed. Now, in submitting a budget, the university presents a menu of initiatives and the government chooses those it likes. In effect, Memorial has surrendered its capacity to set its own priorities. Basic operating funding continues but room for innovation is limited. The government expects Memorial to have a strategic plan, but it is difficult to take this seriously when the Treasury Board decides what it will or will not fund.

Clearly, the current crisis at Memorial University has been brewing since the fall of 2003. The clash over Burke's intervention in the hiring process for a new president is merely the tip of a very large and very dangerous iceberg. Former president Axel Meisen's early departure from the job was perceived publicly as flowing from the clash with government over the Grenfell issue. Odds are that there have been a series of events that led to his move to Alberta eight months before his first term expired.

Burke did not recover with her late-afternoon news release. The release was in many respects cumbersome and contained errors of style and punctuation suggesting it was very hastily written.

In it, she insisted - despite the evidence to the contrary in plain sight - that she had not interfered and that her actions were within the bounds of the law. She also insisted the government has not violated academic freedom, however with that claim she simply pushed the next shovel deeper into the earth at the bottom of the hole in which she currently resides.

“I have yet to hear one concrete example of how exactly our government has impeded or interfered in academic freedom or autonomy,” said Minister Burke. “We have never told people what to teach or how to teach nor have we suppressed opinion. We are very simply saying we will exercise our legal obligation under the act, which clearly states that Cabinet has an approval role as an oversight, and I can assure everyone that we take that role seriously and will exercise our responsibility.”

Right away the claim that government had not interfered in the university's autonomy is nonsense given the evidence already in the public domain.

However, on the other issue, that of academic freedom, Burke's protests will likely prove unconvincing. The reason is easy to see.

Throughout the week, Burke repeatedly used government's financial stake in the university as justification for government's action. There may not be an example of interference in academic freedom yet. There may be no signs of political arm-twisting yet.

But given all that the public has learned to date, it is not hard to imagine a day in the not too distant future when a member of cabinet will find some public comment by a professor or student to be unwelcome. A call will be made and the justification will be simply that the government is concerned the comments are damaging this, that or the other interest of the province.

If the matter ever became public some minister may undoubtedly say that there has not been a violation of academic freedom, despite the plain evidence to the contrary and using exactly the same words and the same rationalizations Burke has used already:

We have invested heavily in our post-secondary institutions. The current and capital budget for the university alone this year is nearly $240 million. Memorial University and College of the North Atlantic are making names for themselves in the international arena.

Do I think that government needs to step away from this process? Absolutely not. As long as we have a budget of $240 million, we have 2,500 staff, we have 18,000 students (at the school), I think that we are expected by the people of Newfoundland and Labrador to play the leadership role that is ours.

Newfoundland and Labrador can certainly make its own decisions and we don't have to act in the way that other provinces or other universities do.

No, it's not hard to imagine it at all.

After all, until recently, no one might have though the government would ever interfere in hiring a president for the university.

And then Burke did just that.

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Why Joan and Danny rejected Eddy

Eddy Campbell has withdrawn from the presidential competition.

His statement is an eloquent defence of the university in a time of crisis:

That [presidential search] committee should be free to conclude the mandate it was given without interference or outside influence, as is the case with all presidential search committees at other Canadian universities.

Heresy!

Jeffrey Simpson starkly describes the issues and problems tied up in the Memorial University crisis.

Once the usual suspects find out about it, they'll be screaming to the Great Oracle of the Valley for Simpson to be tossed in jail for hating Newfoundland.

Only one problem with Simpson's column: "But nary a peep is heard about the principles involved in political interference, because no one dares question the man who can leap tall icebergs."

The entire body of public criticism on government's illegal intervention is focused on the principles involved.

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53K in ACOA cash for Lego contest

Where to begin?

The Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency, originally set up to foster economic development, has dropped a total of $53,861 years ago since 2004 to send a group of junior high school students to a Lego robotics competition in Georgia.

1.  Time to sort out ACOA:  The agency is badly off track, having become  a funnel for all manner of federal pork.

2.  Connie hypocrisy: The Connies claimed they wanted to scrap ACOA before they got elected. Turns out that, they love ACOA's pork pushing properties.

3.  Connie hypocrisy:  Fabian pushed more pork into this pork project.  This bit of business started while John Efford was regional minister and the member of parliament for the area.  Fabian Manning has somehow managed to get the amount of cash increased, according to the Chronicle Herald story.

4.  The robotics competition is an excellent learning project but... this isn't something that ACOA should be funding.  This is an educational project and should be supported from provincial coffers.

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