Frontier to buy out Aurora Energy

Frontier announced Monday it will buy up the remaining common shares in Aurora Energy that Frontier doesn’t already own.  Aurora’s share prices have dropped like a stone in recent weeks.

Aurora’s main asset is uranium in central Labrador.

In light of some comments made in the legislature recently, someone at Aurora might want to reconsider titling the page of their website “Our Assets”:

In reading the documents that have been accumulated by the government as they brought themselves to the point of writing this bill, it surprised me to read some documents – I don’t suppose it surprised me, but it upsets me to read some documents in which, for example, Abitibi-Consolidated has been claiming ownership of the land and ownership of the water. No, they never owned it. They had a lease that allowed them to use it and the lease was renewed, but it is not ownership.

Whose assets are they again?

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The opposite of sober second thought

Jack Layton paid a visit to confer with his provincial counterpart, Danny Williams on Monday. He also dropped in on Lorraine Michael, leader of the New Democratic Party in Newfoundland and Labrador, which, in practice is really just a subset of the Provincial Conservatives.

You can hear the clacking of the keyboards already at the suggestion Conservatives and New Democrats are really just the same creature.

But for those of you who aren’t just reflexively ignoring this, consider that Danny and Jack (and Lorraine) are on the same wavelength when it comes to AbitibiBowater, for example.  Smack those evil companies around.  All good populist nonsense.

Jack hates the senate, the chamber of sober second thought and just last week, the Provincial Conservatives, the local Liberals and the lone New Democrat in the House of Assembly joined together to show their considered opposition to thoughtfulness.

They all worked together to ram through the expropriation bill, based on nothing more than a hasty briefing from the government side.  The only piece of legislation that passed the House in the past decade with fewer words and less consideration was the one that set the legal framework for what became the House of Assembly spending scandal.  No measure of experience gave anyone concerns about a rush job on what the Premier himself described from the outset as unprecedented legislation.

If you really want to see the complete lack of thought involved, go no further than to read the speeches made by the natural resources minister, opposition leader Yvonne Jones and the New Democrat’s Lorraine Michael.

Lorraine’s comments are as good an example of what happened last week.  Let’s take a look at them.

What we have before us today is an opportunity to do something that is precedent setting because finally lands that had been ours and had been given away are back – the potential is to have them back in our hands where they belong, in the hands of the people of this Province. It shows what can happen when we have control over what we own.

The lands never left the province.  They were never taken away.  AbitibiBowater held licenses to use the resources and they have always been, ultimately under the control of the legislature.

So it is absolutely essential I think, that we take the time today to make sure that the decisions we make and the papers that we approve are to the best possible benefit of the people in this Province and that we make sure there are no loopholes that somebody can go through so that it will not work. This has to work. So, while there is urgency about what we have to do today, we also have to take those urgent steps with caution as well. We have had a discussion, all three parties together, obviously the government with the members of the Opposition parties and we will get time to step out of the Chamber and do some thinking and do some consultations that we have to do so that we can, when we do finally enter into full discussion on the floor, have as much information and thinking that we can put in before we do that.

How odd then that Lorraine and the rest of her colleagues – at least on the opposition side were prepared to endorse the bill after only a few minutes of notice that it even existed. The time she referred to in that quote was merely the hour or so it took from the time she said those words in response to the Premier’s ministerial statement until she came back later that same day to ram the bill through all three stages of debate. 

How fast?

Let Lorraine tell you herself from later in the short debate on the bill:

That is what struck me as I have been reading some of the documents. This has been quite a day today, because this was presented to us at 12:45 this afternoon and now it is not even 5:00 o’clock and we have been through briefings, we have started the debate here in the House, et cetera. It has all happened pretty fast, so it has been a pretty quick crash course that we have been involved in.

What consultations took place in that time, let alone what thinking?

The answer is none.

And to really drive the point home, Lorraine bitched just the same week about not having enough time to consider another bill which had been presented with far more warning and which had no less significant implications. She proposed no amendments, took no action to amend the portions of the bill she claimed to have had concerns about.

But back to the expropriation bill.  Lorraine adds some information:

In reading the documents that have been accumulated by the government as they brought themselves to the point of writing this bill, it surprised me to read some documents – I don’t suppose it surprised me, but it upsets me to read some documents in which, for example, Abitibi-Consolidated has been claiming ownership of the land and ownership of the water. No, they never owned it. They had a lease that allowed them to use it and the lease was renewed, but it is not ownership.

At no point did it occur to her that she was receiving a briefing from only one party to a dispute.  More importantly, at no point did she see fit to ask that those documents she mentioned be tabled.  The rest of us are not allowed to see the justification presented for this hasty piece of legislation.

Now we had a corporation in Abitibi-Price who I do not think recognized its privilege. It was a corporation who had the cheapest fibre. They really had a cheap wood. They had the cheapest power and they did no investing in the mill. This is a fact.

Abitibi-Price?  Some of the documents she read must have been old.  As for the rest, it is true in some respects but Lorraine ought to have read the forestry report released in November by the same government that introduced the expropriation bill.  That report shows the current state of the two mills still existing in the province; it is not the one presented by someone with a few minutes of looking over carefully selected information from the bill’s proponents.

Both mills are old and require capital. The Corner Brook mill has received significant capital investment in recent years, with a rebuild of PM 7 in 2000 and installation of a co‐generation facility in 2003. However, neither of the other two machines in the mill has had significant capital investment since the mid‐1980’s. In Grand Falls, neither machine has received a significant capital investment since the mid‐1980’s.

Of the five machines operating as the time of writing, five are ranked in the fourth quartile of paper machine productivity by RISI. On labour productivity, RISI data indicates that the Corner Brook mill performs in the third quartile, while the Grand Falls mill ranks last among the 44 newsprint mills analysed. (We note, however, that recent changes and cost reduction efforts in Grand Falls may have improved performance somewhat, though we do not have access to more recent RISI data to confirm this possibility.)

However, on a positive note, the Grand Falls mill ranks in the second quartile and the Corner Brook mill ranks in the third quartile on total delivered cost per finished tonne of product. These rankings clearly reflect the beneficial impact of the access to very low cost, hydroelectricity enjoyed by both mills. Indeed, the Grand Falls mill is more than completely self‐sufficient in energy and sells approximately 45 MW (slightly more than 40% of total generating capacity owned by ABH and partners) to the Island grid….

The condition is not merely the result of neglect and indifference as suggested by the government, but of the cumulative effect of many circumstances. It is the result of a new paper machine for Grand Falls being diverted to Stephenville.  It is the result of that same machine being taken from the province rather than moved to Grand Falls to replace a unit first installed in 1926. The current administration has not explained how that occurred and it will not, so long as it can count on the unquestioning support of the legislature.

The Premier has referred to the wood room at Grand Falls. Had Lorraine Michael read the November report (in the hands of government since early 2008) she would have seen a recommendation to eliminate the wood room altogether. The consultant’s report, had it been implemented might well have provided a way of lowering costs at the Grand Falls mill and thereby allowing it to continue operating.

The expropriation bill killed that chance. Had Michael and others read the consultant’s report they might also have noticed something about the hydroelectric assets expropriated by the bill they were speeding through the legislature:

The terms and conditions of the power purchase and sale agreements between ABH/CBPPL and NLH are private, commercially confidential arrangements. As a result it has been impossible for us to quantify precisely the economic benefit to the Grand Falls mill of the surplus power generating capacity in which the company has an interest.

However, even if one assumed the sale and purchase prices for electricity exchanges between Abitibi and NLH were exactly equal, it is apparent that the cost of power consumed at the mill would be very low – at or near the marginal cost of generating a unit of hydroelectricity. At published rates ($48/MWh), the power consumed by the mill could be assigned a hypothetical value of $27 ‐ $29 million, while the surplus power sold by ABH to NLH could hypothetically be valued in the range of $18 ‐ $20 million. Therefore, if one assumed an internal cost of power to the mill of say $1.50/MWh (roughly $1 million), the total hypothetical economic value of the power generating capacity to the Grand Falls mill could be in the range of $45 ‐ $50 million, subject to adjustments to account for the partnership interests of other parties in some of the generating assets.

In the face of current market and industry conditions, this is a significant contributor to the viability of the Grand Falls mill. [Emphasis added]

None of that stopped Lorraine from ending with a flourish based as much on wishful thinking as anything else:

How do we diversify the economy using these resources so that in the future we do not have a situation again where one industry stops and a town could be faced with disaster? The other challenge, too, is even if the town continues with a pulp and paper mill, which is a possibility, probably not with the same building that is there, but a pulp and paper mill, then how to do that in a sustainable way so that the day will not come when that ever has to be closed down the road.

So, we are taking a big step here today, but it is the first step. I really encourage the government to continue the process of consultation that it started today. We had a very collaborative effort happen here in this House today, the second time this year by the way; two good collaborative efforts in 2008, the energy bill and now Bill 75.

I thank the Premier for the way in which he worked with us today. I thank the Minister of Natural Resources. It is a pleasure to be part of what we are doing here.

Thank you very much, Mr. Speaker.

At this point – at the end – we finally discover what consultation she meant at the start.  Consultation with the opposition;  by that, of course, she meant, showing them a few sheets of paper and giving the chance to support the government motion.

In the future  - perhaps a few months or even a few years - someone will look back on this time and wonder how such steps could be taken.  They wonder how the Churchill Falls deal could have be done, with the concurrence of all members of the legislature.

In the energy bill and now the expropriation bill – as exemplified by Lorraine Michael’s comments - they have a very simple answer. No one bothered to think.

Perhaps it’s time to reopen the Legislative Council.

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18 more appointed to Antechamber to the Kingdom of Heaven

So much for senate reform.

Sure the federal Conservatives said they wouldn’t do it, but what else is new?

Mike Duffy, Pamela Wallin and Fabian Manning are among the 18 new senators.

Will Fabe resign to run against Scott Andrews or can Scott breathe a sigh of relief?

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The power for good or evil

As Daniel Veniez writes in the Globe, provincial government’s have all the power needed to sort out the country’s forest industry:

Mr. Williams says his government has full legislative authority to expropriate AbitibiBowater's assets in Newfoundland and Labrador. He's absolutely right about that.

In a 2007 dispute with the Quebec government, cutting rights attached to two sawmills derailed a $285-million deal to sell Domtar's lumber assets to Conifex Inc. This required the transfer of cutting rights for three sawmills. Quebec's natural resources minister threatened to deny the transfer if Conifex did not rehire 445 laid off sawmill workers, saying cutting rights revert to the province with an ownership change. He was right about that, too. The deal didn't happen.

In British Columbia, the former NDP government used its legislative authority to dictate where sawmills would be located as a job creation measure. It had very little to do with the economics of running a business. That led to uneconomic mills being forced to operate. And that meant that they were gradually run into the ground. Popular politics for sure, but devastating policy.

In the local case, the Abitibi expropriation pretty much gives the lie to claims that the provincial government doesn’t control it resources.  It also makes a mockery of the claim from the tinfoil hat brigade about Confederation.  Their high commander was on CBC Radio just the other week describing an elaborate conspiracy that never existed to do things that never happened.  Only in Canada would such stuff make the airwaves as a credible contribution to a discussion of a major turning point in our history.

But that’s just digression.

Closer to home, the Abitibi expropriation has attracted a whole bunch of wild cheering but, as is plainly evident, the staunchest of the Premier’s staunch supporters have no idea what has gone on or why it has gone on.

They don’t need to think, apparently, since that would be bad.

The sort of grandstanding exemplified by the expropriation bill – done with all the requisite high drama and the now typical lack of concrete information is all popular politics.

Popular politics, yes.

But devastating public policy.

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Something’s missing: Powers, Hydro, Danny, Abitibi and The Globe

Tim Powers is a well-known Conservative activist who, in his work-a-day, is a professional lobbyist.  As we’ve noted in this space before, he’s a smart guy and Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro was well advised to retain his services to help deal with the federal government on Lower Churchill and the national electricity grid.

According to the lobbyist registry in Ottawa, Powers is still lobbying for Hydro, which is, it should be said, a provincial Crown corporation controlled entirely by the provincial government.  It is no more arms length from cabinet and the Premier’s Office than the natural resources ministry.

The lobbyist registration was just renewed a couple of months ago so it is pretty fresh and there’s no indication it has been suddenly cancelled.

That’s a good point to bear in mind when you read Tim’s comments over the past week on the AbitibiBowater expropriation.  Aside from anything else, he writes a regular blog over at the Globe and Mail.

Over the past week, Globe online readers have been getting comments like this, for example:

History provides a great guide into Newfoundland and this Premier's disdain for broken contracts, apparent or otherwise. Was anyone paying attention to the battle between Ottawa and Newfoundland over the Atlantic Accord?

Perhaps one of the reasons Newfoundland is now a "have" province because she does not sit quietly by and accept that a company can abandon its responsibilities regardless of global circumstances.

For those of us who were paying attention back in 2004/05, we know that there were no broken contracts involved, apparent or otherwise.  And that second bit really doesn’t make any sense since there is no evidence that the company involved- AbitibiBowater – has abandoned any responsibilities.  It’s decided to shut an expensive mill in the midst of global recession and in the face of tough financial times within the company. The mill has been operating for 103 years, with Abitibi running the thing since the 1970s.

That all might be a matter for debate for some people but there a subtext to this that just can’t be ignored and that has to do with the relationship between Powers, Hydro and Danny Williams.

The expropriations involved in last Tuesday’s sudden move by the provincial government involved hydroelectric generation.  The new custodian of those assets is the province’s energy corporation  - NACLOR - and its subsidiary, Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro. 

Subsidiary isn’t the right word, really.  The whole thing is so tightly interconnected, the directorates so tightly interlocked, that it is hard to distinguish one bit of NALCO Reborn form another unless you are a lawyer.  It’s so closely tied to the provincial cabinet that Danny Williams habitually makes all the major announcements for the company. This is not like a Norwegian Crown corporation; it’s more like a Nigerian one for the level of direction it receives from the political end.

At no point, does the Globe point out the connections and Powers doesn’t either, at least not as far as your humble e-scribbler can see.

And just so there’s no mistaking the role Powers’ client is playing in this whole expropriation, let us look no further than the words of Danny Williams himself.

The Premier said it in his statement announcing the unprecedented expropriation:

The Provincial Government will also be taking control of the power plants of Abitibi as without these power plants the hydro power would be wasted. Nalcor Energy will now manage this asset.

The Premier expanded on the point during Question Period the same day:

The Premier:  A good question, Your Honour.

The way that this has been constructed, I indicated in my remarks that the assets, particularly the water assets, would be managed by Nalcor Energy, because obviously Nalcor Energy are now the parent company of Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro, so our expertise lies at Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro. They would be, obviously, the appropriate ones to move in and to oversee the water assets particularly and then also to work in partnership with Fortis and Enel on the two partnerships that are on the river. The assets themselves actually revert to the Crown, so the Crown, the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, is actually standing behind this, so we would basically be repatriating our water rights and also repatriating our land and timber rights back to the Province.

If, at some point in time, on a go-forward basis, then for purposes of the efficient operation and management of the hydro assets, for want of a better term, then, in fact, an arrangement would be done with Nalcor, but the ultimate liability and the ultimate responsibility very clearly rests with the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador.

Something’s been missing this week from the Globe and Mail:  it’s the disclosure of this apparent conflict of interest.

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Breaking: AB closes Grand Falls woods operations

CBC News is reporting that AbitibiBowater unexpectedly shut its woods operations in central Newfoundland this morning.

Undoubtedly this is related to the expropriation earlier this week by the provincial government of all hydroelectric assets accompanied by the cancellation of the mill’s timber licenses.

Some are characterising this as “retaliation” for the expropriation.

More likely, it is a refusal by the company to accept any temporary access to the woods which would – in itself – accept the expropriation and cancellation as legal.

Don’t be surprised if the mill closes this week with the company saying it has neither power or feedstock for the mill.

Update:  Canadian Press has a little bit of detail in front of a huge recitation of the story thus far.

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Weekend reading: unilateral action edition

1.  Telegram editor Russell Wangersky’s Saturday column in which he suggests the court action over the government’s expropriation of assets belonging to AbitibiBowater, Fortis, CHI, Inc and Sun Life could get “tangly.”

Interpretation is always in the eye of the beholder, and in this case, the final beholder is likely to be a very senior judge.

If AbitibiBowater goes to court, it will be the nuanced interpretation - probably of the original lease document from 1905 and other similarly dated material - that will decide the day.

The province has already signalled it will argue that AbitibiBowater broke its lease by announcing the closure of the mill.

AbitibiBowater, if it fights, will argue that, if any leases have been broken, they've been broken by the province.

All in all, there's only one thing for certain: it's bound to be rich fodder for lawyers and more than enough paper for all.

Wangersky’s right.  AbitibiBowater was already suing the provincial government over another unilateral change to leases, this time from 2002/2003.  That lawsuit was settled – without costs –entirely arbitrarily by the provincial government.  It included a line in the expropriation bill which quashes the suit.

Period.

What exactly would stop the provincial government from doing that again, with respect to any other lawsuit it doesn’t like?

The are plenty of aspects to this expropriation bill which make it far more complex than the claim that it was merely about trees and water.

2.  Financial Post editor Terence Corcoran who highlights a few other issues worth pondering:

The union and the government appear to have misjudged the company’s intentions, or they are playing hard ball to force the company do what it does not want to do.

It’s a dangerous game for Mr. Williams. Newfoundland isn’t exactly a fiscal powerhouse. Its latest financial update shows that if the price of oil is at $60 a barrel, the province “could be facing a deficit of several hundred million dollars next year, and could potentially be facing deficits in the years to come.”

At the same time, the province is paying lavish wage increases to unionized civil servants of 20% over four years. This is a formula for fiscal disaster down the road. And if the province also has to pay out big dollars to settle a NAFTA case, along with suffering a hit to its reputation as the Venezuela of the North, the outlook is even bleaker.

3.  The Telegram editorial on another unilateral action, this time by the provincial cabinet to replace appointees to the Memorial University board of regents with a raft of new faces.  The one thing the new faces have in common:  they are all close partisan and personal associates of cabinet ministers. They join another batch of appointees, all of whom have impeccable Provincial Conservative credentials. They will follow orders.

One of the regents the government removed, Mary Broderick, was on her way to a Board of Regents meeting when her cellphone rang and she was dismissed.

Wonder of wonders, Broderick was vice-chair of the board, and also sat on an ad-hoc committee of the board that was examining the government’s last gerrymandering attempt. When in doubt, fire them out.

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What would the Kingfish do?

Apparently, the only difference between Louisiana and Newfoundland is that they elected Huey Long once.

Stark willie update:  An astute reader sends this e-mail correction:

That’s actually the second difference. The first being that the folks in Louisiana aren’t stunned enough to celebrate “Mardi Gras” in October.

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Abitibi’s letter to Danny

Here’s the shorthand:

“Dear Danny: F.O.A.D. Strong letter to follow. Love (not really), Dave.”

This one ain’t over by a long shot.

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Incidental documentation:  CBC story here.  pdf of letter (the real one) here.

Incidental thought:  Let’s see those high-priced pieces of legal advice the Expropriator got before he launched his venture.  Yes.  Yes.  Don’t bother reminding everyone that he’s made wild claims before about having advice or support or promises or commitments.  The evidence to support the claims never, ever shows up because it never existed in the first place.

Fantasy Island

Delusional or in hyper-torque mode?

Either way, provincial finance minister Jerome Kennedy is living on Fantasy Island if he thinks the rate of in-migration is a sign that this “demonstrates the confidence that individuals have in Newfoundland and Labrador, our strong economic position, and in making it their home.”

The change is only two tenths of one percent.  That’s hardly a stampede.  That’s hardly the sign of people building makeshift rafts to scramble to Nirvana or the New Jerusalem.

That’s hardly the sign of an economy that is growing,  even by the hyper-optimistic provincial government estimate of 2%, compared to the almost 10% growth of 2007.

Nope, it’s a sign that things are shutting down everywhere else.

The big hat tip on this one goes to labradore. Incidentally, you can find a taste of WJM’s stuff in his own commentary on Jerome’s news release.  He started analysing the demographic trends a while ago and concluded that the changing population follows a pattern.  Right before a major recession elsewhere, there’s a blackflow in the pipeline of people leaving the province for greener pastures elsewhere. Those would be the people with a relatively weak social and economic attachment to their new home who decide to weather the coming rough economic times living with Mom and Dad.

He predicted the pattern long before the current recession hit.  Like clockwork, the numbers held, just as Kennedy trumpets:  “For four of the last five quarters blah blah blah”.

Jerome just got the reason wrong.

Badly wrong.

That would normally be okay, but there are consequences.  You see, too many locals are being duped into believing Jerome is right on this sort of stuff.

When the truth hits, it may well be very painful.  Just ask the people living in the region governed by Big Tory Graham Letto.  The guy who ran as a Provincial Conservative in 2003 followed the line set by his political buddies about us living in a bubble. Even though this newfangled Internet contraption has been in that part of the woods for a while – it’s facetious people he said pre-empting the e-mails – Graham decided it was better to spout the talking points than, say, think for himself.  Hence his astonishment when – as anyone else could have told him – IOCC decided to delay the expansion that had been fuelling his little economic boom.

Boom.

Bust.

Letto’s cheesy smile sure won’t make the sting of that one go away, just like Jerome’s new release won’t be any help come next spring when Jerome’s got to sort out a difficult year in his budget.

As for the backflow, it will last as long as the recession lasts and then those people will head back to where the real work is.

You see, that’s because there has never been an economic development Plan A for the current crowd, let alone a Plan B or even a Plan C that some are now praying for.  They’ve just been making it up as they went along.

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Expect more of this

The political fallout of losing Abitibi’s Stephenville mill was soaked up by the giant Alberta job sponge.

Well, that sponge is now being wrung out by the global economic downturn and the workers are heading back home.  They’re heading back home to places like Labrador West where slowdowns and project suspensions are the new norm.

People in Grand Falls might be cheering at the thought they somehow managed to wreak vengeance on Abitibi.

But what are they going to go for a job come March?

It won’t be Fort Mac.

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Expropriation impact

At left, a graph of AbitibiBowater share prices over the past five days on the New York Stock Exchange.

Note the peak on Wednesday followed by the precipitous drop.  That drop coincides with news spreading that the provincial government expropriated the companies Newfoundland and Labrador assets.

The chart at right is the Canadian trading record.

Coincidence?

Draw your own conclusions.

Around these parts it would be called the toque effect.  Tom Rideout may be gone from cabinet but his spirit still lives around the cabinet table.

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Haste lays waste

When it comes to things not local, the current provincial administration has two basic modes:  pick a fight with it or, if it is the federal government, go ask it for cash.

With a hat tip to Andrew Coyne, it would seem that this week’s expropriation bill came just a bit too hastily.

You see, AbitibiBowater would qualify for the new federal stimulus package. All they needed to do was fill out the application form.

Alas, as a result of the legislative exploits on Tuesday, the only things receiving stimuli over the next several months will be the bank accounts of very expensive lawyers.

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Crude breaks 40 – on the way down

West Texas Intermediate for January settled at US$36.22 in trading in New York despite a cut in production announced by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). 

Brent crude, the benchmark used for Newfoundland and Labrador crude, finished the day at US$43.60. Longer term futures  - out to 2015 - showed varying declines, even though the current trading price ranges considerably higher than that for front month crude. [Long term charts:  WTI and Brent]

On the New York exchange, January crude finishes tomorrow.  February was more active, settling at less than US$44.

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One down…

One to go?

So if expropriating assets - “repatriating them” in WilliamsSpeak – worked in the AbitibiBowater case, what are the odds the provincial government might try to re-mount the water rights reversion fix for the Churchill Falls contract?

He did promise to seek “redress” and “repatriating” those assets would really make his place in the history books.

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Déjà vue all over again

Just when everything was settling down, the brute force expropriation of AbitibiBowater assets has stirred everything up again.

Lord Haw Haw of Brownenvelope is back on the airwaves praising his former employer to the hilt and taking issue with anyone who suggests that maybe the Premier might be acting a little rashly.  Then at the end of the two hours of blindly praising his former employer, Lord Haw Haw proclaims that people shouldn't blindly praise leaders.

The man lampoons himself every day and seems blissfully unaware.

The airwaves of Lord Haw Haw's afternoon laugh-fest and the morning talk show were crammed with every manner of worshipper praising the expropriation.  Then again, most of those were just the usual suspects spouting the usual pap.

Meanwhile, outside Newfoundland and Labrador, people wonder what the heck is going down in Hooterville.

Again.

Well, here are a couple of points to ponder:

1.  No one should doubt what would have happened in 2006 if the provincial government had the legal power to expropriate offshore licenses.  That's the time the Premier fumed about expropriation.  Too many people laughed the whole episode off as a big bluff.

2.  Since the provincial government can't expropriate the offshore, the oil industry is resting easy. Hibernia, White Rose and Terra Nova are salted away.  The companies wrestled huge concessions from the government on Hebron.  There's nothing for them to worry about.

3. Other companies on the other hand are probably not sitting quite so pretty.  Kruger, Vale Inco, Wabush mines, IOCC.  They all are likely checking their legal agreements with the provincial government. Some of them might even start discussions to secure whatever guarantees they can against precipitous actions by the provincial Crown. If the provincial government is prepared to use the extreme solution up front to strip the carcass of a dead project, no one would blame those companies for wondering what might happen to a troubled one.

4.  IOCC and Wabush Mines might want to take another look at their power contract and the whole Twin Falls Company.  The last time this issued was raised - in 2006 -  the Premier raised the completely false idea of sweetheart power deals and resource giveaways to bludgeon to death any suggestion the companies could avoid paying commercial rates the next time the deal came up for renewal.

Here's an extract from the post on that issue back in early 2007:

In early October, the feisty Premier warned Iron Ore Company of Canada - owners of the other mine in Labrador West - that they could expect to pay commercial rates for electricity once the current agreement ended. Williams likened the IOC/Wabush Mines power purchase deal to the Hydro Quebec giveaway on the Upper Churchill presumably knowing full-well that his comparison and the truth were two completely different things.

Presumably the same thing applied to Wabush Mines. You can imagine the talk: Forget the low cost power, boys, sez Danny. No more give aways. Maximum benefits to the province or take a hike.

And since Williams had flatly rejected a power deal in public, there was no way he would back down.

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The forest for the junk

There's something about woods work in central Newfoundland that brings a tendency in some to take junks of wood to the sides of heads.

We don't mean here the tragic case of Bill Moss, the Newfoundland Constabulary constable killed during the woodworkers strike that started 50 years ago this month.

We are speaking here of the junks of legal wood then Premier Joe Smallwood took to the heads of the woodworkers themselves to settle that strike.  Smallwood used the brute force of the legislature to legislate their union out of existence and impose on them a government-controlled crowd.

A half century later, the pretender to Smallwood's demagogue populist Crown used the brute force of the legislature to cancel rights and seize assets.

Then, as now, the wider issue was lost amid the noise of the moment.

In the current day, the noise is exemplified by two statements.

First, in Wednesday's Telegram, a letter writer lays out the case for the government to take action to ensure that - as many other voices have cried these past couple of weeks - AbitibiBowater cannot walk away and "take our resources" with them. 

The company would be able to generate power from its hydroelectric assets and make money from it, according to Sean Dyke.  He's right on that but the power wasn't about to leave the island any time soon. 

The company might take the wood it held in Newfoundland and ship it somewhere else to be made into paper or toothpicks, Dyke warns. 

Nothing could be further from the truth, to quote a well known public figure.

AbitibiBowater was planning to shut down everything, including its port and harvesting operations. The cost of exporting the timber to another mill would be prohibitive.  If no company in Newfoundland could do it profitably by bringing logs from nearby Labrador, there is little chance it could be done profitably by shipping central Newfoundland trees to England or the United States or China.

No assets were leaving the province, unlike in Stephenville where the provincial government allowed the company to remove its 30 year old Valmet machine from Stephenville and ship it off to Heaven knows where;  ship it out of the province instead of moving it to Grand Falls-Windsor where it was originally supposed to go to replace one of the ancient and slow machines that are still running out there in the papermaking museum on the Exploits.

Second, there's the claim by Premier Danny Williams that there is little likelihood of court action by the companies involved.  According to the Premier, the only issue is compensation since, the brute force of the legislature transfers the assets to the Crown and that's all there is to it.

If it is possible for something to be even further from the truth than anything else, then that contention by the Premier would be it.

The expropriation legislation is unprecedented, in the Premier's own words.  It is unprecedented in a situation where the company was party to legal agreements with the provincial government, where there were no allegations of bad faith or of failing to meet its legal obligations.

The Premier tried a supposedly failed moral obligation but even that one can't stand up to reasonable scrutiny.  Over a century of successful operation is hardly a failed obligation.  It's also hard to accuse the company of perfidy when it tried diligently over the better part of a decade to revamp the mill only to find that no deal could be done with its unions, not once but twice in the space of a year.  in tough economic times, hard decisions get made.  Forces beyond the company's control - those words will ring true for the Premier come budget time - make necessary a tough business decision.

So where exactly is the basis for seizing assets?

There isn't one, at least not one that stands up to the barest of scrutiny.  Sure, the usual suspects are crowding open line shows to praise their hero but it is hard to imagine that even the Premier's frail mother could show such unflinching devotion to her son as some of these characters do. They love him anyway.

And if there was a way for the Premier to smack AbitibiBowater in the side of the head with another junk, that crowd would gnaw down the trees with their own teeth to keep him supplied with weapons.

AbitibBowater clearly had no interest in the timber any more.  It held land and mineral rights but odds are the company was looking to get rid of those licenses and lands anyway.

No.

The only asset of any obvious and enduring value were the penstocks used to create electricity. Smacking the company in the head with a legal junk was, evidently, the easiest way to get that.

Far from being a case of merely settling compensation, though, AbitibiBowater can argue that it had an interest in continuing to operate those assets. It had every legal right to do so.  They can argue that there was no legitimate reason to seize those assets by brute force.

Nowhere is that more plain than at Star Lake.  While the rest of the company's generating capacity primarily supported the mill, Star Lake was a separate project.  Abitibi and a private sector consortium developed the 18 megawatt site in response to a call for proposals from Hydro a decade ago. The goal was to replace some of Holyrood's environmentally dirty production with cleaner hydro. Why did government seize that asset?

Maybe it won't wind up being a legal argument.  Maybe the Crown can get away with taking an axe to contracts.  Maybe the brute force of legislation, without due cause, due consideration and due process is enough.

It should certainly be a political argument, even if the rump opposition in the legislature can't seem to grasp the wider implications of what they supported yesterday.

It's certainly a policy argument worth considering when the province depends - as surely as it did in 1905 - on attracting foreign capital to develop local natural resources.  It's certainly an argument worth considering given that in 2006, this same administration argued for the power to expropriate oil and gas licenses merely because the companies involved and the government couldn't reach a development deal.

Sometimes, it seems, it is hard to focus on the forest of problems with the AbitibiBowater expropriation.

It's masked by the the thud from the junks of wood being laid up side heads.   

 

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Whistling past the graveyard: forestry version

Union and town politicians in Grand Falls-Windsor appear to be under the ludicrously mistaken impression that Tuesday's expropriation by the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador of AbitibiBowater's land, timber, mineral and water rights in central Newfoundland might lead to the contributed operations of the town's major private sector employer.

There was no indication that yesterday's legislation would prevent those losses [of hundreds of jobs when the mill closes in early 2009]. But Gary Healey, a Communications, Energy & Paperworkers representative at the mill, called it “an early Christmas gift.”

“If Abitibi's not interested in staying in the province, at least we have something to offer,” he said. “But losing the big employer in central Newfoundland is not what we want. I'm sure if Abitibi wanted to reconsider their plans, they'd be listened to.”

Grand Falls-Windsor Mayor Rex Barnes had a similar reaction.

“We would hope that Abitibi would reflect on what's just happened and come to a resolution with the unions to work this out,” he said.

Reconsidering the planned is not likely in AbitibiBowater's list of options.  The company is facing stiff competition in an industry that is under increasing pressure.  Two weeks ago the company announced plans to slash over 800,000 tons of production.  A major client, the Chicago Tribune, filed for bankruptcy protection and, overseas, the company is facing intense price competition from smaller rivals.

AbitibiBowater discussed possible bankruptcy protection for the company earlier this year during efforts to restructure its finances. That point seems to have been missed by provincial government and union officials during talks aimed at keeping the Grand Falls-Windsor mill operating.

Meanwhile, in Ottawa Tuesday a paper industry lobby group issued a list of five proposals for action by the federal and provincial governments, the group would help save the ailing forest industry across Canada.

He said the restrictions have left the industry weaker, with many small failing mills, at a time when bigger companies are needed to compete effectively in tight world markets.

Provinces have put restrictions on consolidation to keep mill towns open, but Lazar said most of the jobs in the future will come from large operations that are able to win markets in Asia and other emerging economies.

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Related: 

• "Abitibi: forest and trees" (2005)
• "Danny Williams: read the fine print" (2005)
• "The hard and the easy: Abitibi and government subsidies" (2005)
• "A trading nation - Newfoundland and Labrador trade with the world" (2005)
• "Kruger closes CB paper machine, other companies may follow suit" (2007)
• "Let's do the time warp" (2007) This post, on Fishery Products International, includes an excerpt from Hansard, March 2002:

Mr. Williams:...It did not have to happen. We have a black eye now on the business reputation of this Province. People do not like heavy-handed intervention. They do not like it, and that is what happened in the business community. The national media are looking at it and they now see our intervention as heavy-handed. If it had happened back in April of last year, back in May of last year, there would have been no problem.

The hon. Member for Lewisporte talked about his concern about a privitive clause. We all share that concern. There should be no need for a privitive clause. There should be no need to hide behind your mistakes, so that people who have a right to sue you can rightfully sue you. We have done it; it is out there. You have this unique legislation that talks about privity, so you cannot sue us because we made mistakes. That is wrong. That could have been prevented. The legal opinion that you had last spring said that you could change that legislation for public policy reasons, and you did not do it. [Emphasis added]

Brute force of law: Williams administration revokes Abitibi rights and expropriates assets

In a move Premier Danny Williams described as unprecedented, the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador introduced legislation in the House of Assembly Tuesday that canceled timber, land, mineral and water rights and expropriated title and rights to other lands and assets held by AbitibiBowater in Newfoundland and Labrador.

The bill moved through all three stages of debate and received royal assent in a single afternoon, thereby coming into immediate effect.

The move was explained as the "repatriation" of provincial resources from a company based on, in the Premier's words during Question Period, "the fact that the bargain was broken which had been established over a century ago." The bargain, as he described it, was the use of timber, land and hydroelectricity to produce pulp and paper.  AbitibiBowater announced two weeks ago that it would close its mill at Grand Falls-Windsor in the first quarter of 2009.

The bill provides no compensation and absolves the Crown from any legal action arising from the expropriation, except for the hydroelectric assets.  However, the manner and amount of that compensation is to be determined by the cabinet alone.

In Question Period, the Premier said that the government wrote the company last Friday seeking transfer of all assets to the Crown without any charge.  The company replied on Monday that it would not do so but wished to enter into discussions on transfer and compensation.

"At that point, of course, we felt that this was certainly an urgent matter that should be dealt with forthwith. As the House is moving towards the Christmas period, it is a closer time, a tighter time, and we felt the matter was of such importance that we should deal with it as soon as possible."

According to the Premier, the company as well as the company's partners and creditors in two hydro-electric developers, were notified 30 minutes before the House of Assembly opened for the afternoon sitting.

The move is in stark contrast to the orderly dismantling of Abitibi's Stephenville operation.  That closure included - for some unexplained reason - removing a paper machine from the province that had been originally destined for Grand Falls before a deal was struck between Abitibi and the Peckford administration to open a paper mill at Stephenville.

Included in the expropriation are two joint ventures between Abitibi and private sector companies to generate hydroelectricity.  One of them, at Star Lake, was developed entirely in response to a request for proposals from Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro to replace some of the power generated by Hydro's diesel generator at Holyrood.  It did not supply power to the mill.

As Bond Papers noted last week, "[e]xpect NL Hydro to purchase these assets from the private sector partners, one of which is Fortis, with the power being sold to Vale Inco."   That's pretty much what will happen except that cabinet will dictate the terms and conditions of the deal. The hydro assets will now be operated by Hydro directly or through another subsidiary of NALCO Reborn.

This whole move is not without some context and foreshadowing.

The most immediate context may be the prospect of AbitibiBowater declaring bankruptcy, a point raised in series of questions by the opposition.  That issue was raised in the the House of Assembly, interestingly enough at the time the Premier and natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale were outside the legislature announcing Nalco Reborn.

Innovation minister Shawn Skinner fielded the questions on behalf of government that day:

We are aware of the challenges that AbitibiBowater as a company are facing. We are looking at the options and the alternatives that may come from the situation they find themselves in. They may be in a situation of bankruptcy or receivership, they may bounce back and maybe become a very profitable and productive company, but as it is right now, Mr. Speaker, they are a company that is open. It is operating. It has many operations throughout the world. They are still operating and we will monitor the situation as we have done to ensure that our rights as a government and the rights of the people who work with Abitibi, who are residents of this Province, are protected.

As it turned out, that was a day before the government issued its demand for transfer of the assets free of compensation.

The Premier dealt with similar questions on Tuesday, responding at one point:

Of course, the core reason for this particular action is because, in fact, there was, as I said before, back in 1905, a Charter Lease which was executed which very clearly tied the milling and logging operations to the waterways and the water power and the hydro power. So, as a result of their announcement that this particular mill in Newfoundland and Labrador is closing down, we feel, obviously, we have the right then to repatriate those assets and, in fact, expropriate the power assets, but we have no information before us right now that indicates that this company is going bankrupt. If it did go bankrupt, then there are other consequences.

The curious thing about that response is the reliance on the initial charter which established the mill in 1905during the administration of Sir Robert Bond.  Many of the timber, land and hydroelectric assets expropriated on Tuesday were acquired subsequent to the original charter.  The government also didn't expropriate the mill itself, perhaps due to potential environmental remediation costs associated with that asset.

The Premier told the legislature on December 8th that the government had been considering legal options with respect to the Grand Falls-Windsor operation for several years.  He said:

I can quite honestly say that this government has looked at the legal issues surrounding that mill for a considerable period of time - over several years since we have actually been in office - with regard to demands that Abitibi were making, based on previous agreements and previous rights that they assumed that we have. So we have been constantly reviewing this from a legal perspective and made sure that we protected the interests of the people of Newfoundland and Labrador.

From our own perspective, on an ongoing basis, we obviously are obtaining legal opinions. I think it is in the best interests of everybody involved that we not share those legal opinions because, obviously, we have a preferred advantage there and some leverage with the company and that is something that we would prefer to continue on with.

The first option is the best option. The company does the right thing, does the right thing for the people of Newfoundland and Labrador, and particularly Grand Falls and surrounding areas, after 100 years is that they pass these assets back over. That would be the timber assets - which actually, a month ago, we were actually prepared to pay for on the basis that we wanted that x number of dollars to go back into the mill and allow the mill to have some longevity, which is what the workers indicated.

The other remedy would be a court action, the other remedy would be an expropriation, and the other remedy would be an act of this Legislature which deals with the entire problem. [Emphasis added]

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"Solidarity, Reg", patronage appointment version

Somehow this slipped your humble e-scribbler's notice.

Provincial New Democratic Party leader Lorraine Michael knew back in September what most New Democrats would understand:  a conservative is a conservative is a conservative.  That's what she said back in September when the who Family Feud thingy was on the go during the federal election.

Well, for all those who think that labour is aligned with the New Democrats, think again.  Outgoing labour federation boss Reg Anstey stood four-square behind the Provincial Conservatives in September.

That's not the first time Reg showed his solidarity with the current administration.

Remember the Rally for Danny?  There was Reg.

How about attacking the Liberals and New Democrats last spring for daring to suggest pattern bargaining in the public service should go the way of the dodo?  Reg was there to slice into the government's political opponents.

He took his leave of the labour federation in the first week of November, telling reporters he didn't know what he was going to do with himself now that he'd retired.

Less than two weeks later he had a sinecure on the offshore regulatory board, courtesy of the Provincial Conservative cabinet.

Loyalty clearly has its rewards.

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Fowler missing in Niger

He was deputy minister at National Defence through the Somalia debacle.  Now he's gone missing in Niger while on a diplomatic mission.

How long before Scott Taylor turns up doing interviews about the missing man, Bob Fowler?

Notice that the Globe's update discusses everything in Fowler's career except what he is best known for.

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Floundering

Question:  In what year did Earle McCurdy and the fisheries union not go to the provincial government looking for cash to bail out the fishery?

The economy is booming.

Earle tells us the fishery is in trouble and needs a government bailout.

The economy is tanking.

Earle tells us the fishery is in trouble and needs a government bailout.

McCurdy's answer to problems in the fishery is - of course - more of the same sort of thinking that got everyone into this mess in the first place. He is to fisheries management what Taco was to 1980s popular music.

Too bad Earle makes the news while people who actually have a roadmap out of the mess get ignored again and again and again and again and again... .

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Local math prof stirs international economics controversy

Odds are no one heard of Antal Fekete.

The Hungarian-born emeritus professor of mathematics at Memorial University in St. John's isn't someone local media  look to for commentary on economic issues.

But through a series of articles published on his website - professorfekete.com - he's earned some measure of international notariety for his arguments about backwardation of gold, the problems of unsupported debt and the global economic crisis.

Backwardation is the phenomenon of spot gold prices being higher than futures prices.  That situation happens frequently in other commodities but seldom in gold.  The difference is that gold, once used as the ultimate support  for paper currency, is a monetary commodity.

It's also a clue that the commodity is, or is perceived as being, or will be in short supply.  Logically, no one would buy gold today at a price higher than it could be purchased in as little as two weeks time.  The only reason to do that would be in a case where there was some doubt about delivery in the future.

Here's the way Professor Fekete describes the situation in his most recent article:

We are facing a pathology of the international monetary system based, as it is, on irredeemable promises to pay. People are enjoined through 'legal tender' legislation to use these irredeemable promises as if they were the ultimate means of payment, even though they are not, and the world would rather use gold and silver as the natural and ultimate extinguisher of debt. But gold and silver have been coercively eliminated from monetary circulation for the competition they offered to synthetic debt-liquidating devices.

Mainstream economics pretends that the issue has been settled for once and all. It asserts that liquidation of debt through the coercively maintained payments system has no threat to the national and world economy. Yet what is happening is that the government keeps kicking the toxic garbage upstairs which keeps accumulating unobtrusively in the attic, only to come crashing down in its own good time to cause untold amount of social damage.

In the real world it is natural law, rather than man-made coercive laws, that prevail. The pathology of the regime of irredeemable currency has not been attended to, and day of reckoning has dawned. Our pathological monetary system has allowed the burgeoning of debt beyond all rhyme and reason. It has no mechanism to extinguish debt. It pretends that transferring debt to the banks, and ultimately to the government, is tantamount to extinguishing it. However, the truth of the matter is that only gold circulation is able to extinguish debt. When it is stopped in its tracks, as it is under conditions of backwardation, debt explodes. [Italics in original]

Fekete's theories have attracted global attention since gold started backwardising in early December.  That's the first time such a situation has occurred since the early 1930s by some accounts, let alone lasted for more than 24 hours.  As The Australian columnist Robin Bromby put it:

It wasn't just the internet sites. London's Daily Telegraph was reporting the gold markets being in turmoil, with traders saying it was extremely hard to buy physical metal in the form of coins or bars, a problem the paper attributed to the emergence of backwardation.

Fekete said the development showed a drastic drop in the velocity of gold circulation and was a repeat of the situation in 1931 when, in the face of serial devaluations started by the British, gold circulation seized up. And we all know what happened after 1931 -- 1932, the worst year of the Great Depression.

It's not like Fekete hasn't been predicting this for a while.  In June - before the peak crude price and long before the credit meltdown - Fekete forecast gold backwardation.

There are plenty of people around who will tell you what everyone else says.  Sometimes it's the ones who go against the grain who are worthy of more attention than they get.  Sometimes they are a bit more clued in that people forecasting more of the same. 

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Separated at birth: the tag line version

"Never give up.  Never give in."

"Never give up.  Never surrender."

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Forget TORSTAR: Latest Harper/Ignatieff poll results

Plus other stuff of equal importance, because politics is such serious business.

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Purple Reign of Darkness

Danny Williams receives personal files on reporters who interview him.

He confirmed that fact, telling reporters the files are to help him prepare for those interviews.

"When I am provided with a personal file it's an information file to get me ready for an interview with the press," he told reporters at the news conference. "It is not the down and dirty on you or you or you or anybody else."

The Telegram learned of the files last December when one of its reporters received a government e-mail by mistake that asked a political staffer to prepare "purple files on both" that reporter and another who had also requested an interview with the Premier.

Not for both, as in for the interviews, but on both, clearly implying the files were to be prepared on the reporters.

Briefing notes and talking points are routine material prepared for interviews.  They include background information, suggested responses to questions and other similar information that focuses on the subject matter of the interview.

They typically don't focus on the reporter personally, unless the reporter has been following a particular - usually contentious -  issue for a while and hence has an understanding or interpretation of an issue that's already established. Even then, the clippings are only useful to get a perspective on how the issue has been approached, not on the reporter personally.

In the Telegram case, the interviews were for year-end wrap-ups. 

"A reporter basically came in the room one day and saw a purple file on the desk and assumed it was a purple file about that reporter... absolutely untrue," Williams said. "That insinuation, I've got to tell you, is really offensive."

What insinuation, you may ask?

As usual it's Williams who provided the sinister cast to the whole episode.  He suggested that the request by the Telegram for those purple files under the province's open records laws was based on the belief that the files contained personal profiles of the reporters.

The Telegram just went looking for the files, without specifying the contents.

The official response from the premier's department said that there were "no responsive records" meaning they had no such information or files.

Clearly that wasn't true, as the Premier admitted last week and as the Premier's communications director had already admitted to the Telegram via e-mail months ago.

Telegram editor Russell Wangersky focuses on this issue for his Saturday column, recounting much of what is presented above. He takes the cue from the notion of offensive to raise another point:

As offensive, say, as collecting files on political rivals to trot out in Question Period? "When the member opposite was minister, she bought two cases of wine." That sort of thing?

Indeed.

Nor hardly surprising from a politician who likes to talk about the amount of energy he spends on people who criticize his regime.

Or one who likes to call reporters to bitch about their columns and articles.  Like in this case where Williams called a reporter involved in the purple files controversy to complain that the reporter had appealed the case to the province's information commissioner.

Or a guy who calls ordinary citizens about their letters to the editor.

Politically, Danny Williams is in yet another hard spot on the subject of transparency and accountability, let alone free speech.

He likes to pat himself on the back for his supposed commitment to the virtues of open government, but whenever push comes to shove, his first response is to shove back hard and slam the doors shut on disclosure.

In this case, Williams' office has been caught both compiling personal files on reporters as interview preparation material.  Then his department has been caught denying the files exist, at least as far as the province's open records laws.  And let's be absolutely clear, under those laws, the contents of those files - irrespective of the colour of the folder - is accessible.

Now Williams' himself has compounded the problem by insisting on hiding the files he himself acknowledges exist based not on anything other than his own self-righteous indignation.

He will surely understand that a great many people are highly suspicious of his actions.

This is just the latest in a long string of secrecy issues for the Williams administration:

• A couple of weeks ago, the Telegram revealed the extent to which the premier's department - Executive Council - controls what is released to the public under the open records laws.
• Before that, we had the spectacle of the Premier making up excuses to keep the auditor general from reviewing files on a controversial business deal between the government and company's run or managed by his former business partners.  He subsequently relented, using the same discretionary power that many pointed out from the beginning that he held.
• Then there was a health facilities report, which the government sat on for three years until the health minister accidentally revealed confirmed it existed.
• And let's not forget the changes to the provincially- owned energy corporation's legislation that, in effect, shield the entire company from public scrutiny and limit the auditor general's ability to review the company's finances. Incidentally, that energy company unveiled its value statement this week alongside its grossly overpriced logo:  Accountability - Holding ourselves responsible for our actions and performance.  Yes, if you take the plain English meaning of those words, a public owned company will be accountable to nothing but itself.
• Then there are changes this week to the province's public records management laws.  Under the old approach public records were managed by a committee of public servants. There were only public records and that included cabinet ones. Under the new approach, the government is creating a special category of files called cabinet records that it alone defines and controls. Watch out for an up-tick in shredder activity.

In this case, as in all the other cases, including the numerous reports the administration sits on in spite of the pledge to release them within 30 days of being received, the Premier and his staff deliberately fight any attempt at disclosure.  They kick and scream when - if things are really as innocuous as they claim - the simplest thing to do would be to release the documents.

Russell Wangersky makes an eminently sensible point in that respect.

But when a politician and his staff try to conceal things - as they obviously are - and when other public servants make false statements - there are responsive records in this case - you have to wonder what they are trying to hide.

You don't have to wonder why they try to hide things:  the administration has demonstrated repeatedly it does not believe in openness, transparency and accountability. 

If it did, people within it - including the Premier himself - wouldn't spend so much time trying to hide things from the public.

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Fun with anagrams

Anagrams.

Take a word or words and mix up the letters to make new words or phrases.

Like, say, NALCOR ENERGY, the provincial government's new name for its old idea of state involvement in things best left to the entrepreneurial private sector.

Flip around the letters and you get, among others:

• General Crony
• Enlarge Crony

Add the letters corp on the end and you can end up with some other odd phrases:

• Cancer Prone Glory
• Clean Crony Groper
• Porn Recycle Groan

Those samples came from an online anagram generator.  Maybe the human brain can do something more creative than create random words.

For example, this all started with an e-mail that asserted that one anagram for NALCOR ENERGY CORPORATION was CRONY CAREER PROLONGATION.

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NALCO Reborn

If nothing else, the current provincial administration is good at naming  - branding - things.

Well  that is, if by "good" you mean willing to make some completely unimaginative or even risible choices.

The risible included a new provincial government logo, erroneously called a brand, which consisted of three flowers of a lazy carnivorous plant billed as symbolic of the proud people of Newfoundland and Labrador.

The latest example of a decided lack of imagination appeared on Thursday with the name of the holding company for the provincial government's energy corporation.

NALCOR.

As in Newfoundland and Labrador Corporation, the name of another Crown corporation in local history that went by  the acronym NALCO.

Created as a Crown corporation in 1951 by Joe Smallwood's first administration, NALCO held rights to all the province's undeveloped land resources.  As a Crown corporation at the time, the thing was exempt from federal taxation.

NALCO grew from the brain of Alfred Valdmanis, the Latvian economist with a dubious past who ingratiated himself with Smallwood with plans of turning Newfoundland and Labrador into a modern industrial powerhouse.  He had the odd habit of referring to Smallwood as "my premier", in much the same way as Germans referred to Hitler as "my Leader", a point not lost on Smallwood's critics.

By 1954, NALCO was in the hands of John C. Doyle and Canadian Javelin.

The new NALCO, with a R added to the end, is the parent of Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro, Churchill Falls Labrador Corporation (CFLCo), the unimaginatively named Oil and Gas Corporation and may well become the parent of others under the legislation that gave it life.

Interesting that CFLCo is now known as Churchill Falls.  The entry in the registry of corporatrions for the province shows, as of mid afternoon on Thursday that the registered name is still Churchill Falls (Labrador) Corporation and that the company last filed a return in may 2007.  It isn't in good standing, according to the online registry record, meaning the CF or CFLCo or whatever it will be called now hasn't paid its annual registration fee.

The new company name hasn't been registered yet.  Instead - as of last Thursday -  Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro has reserved the name "NALCOR Energy Oil and Gas Inc". They have less than a year to get the thing properly registered.

The web domain  - nalcorenergy.com - was registered in November, though, by M5i, a division of M5, a local  marketing communications firm. They also registered "nalco.ca" at the same time.  Craig Tucker, one of M5's senior executives, was a Williams administration appointee to the Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro board of directors.

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Facing oblivion

From the guy the insiders picked to run the Liberal Party:

I’m not looking for a road to 24 Sussex. I'm looking for a road that takes us out of crisis towards a stable, responsible government with the national interest in mind. Mr. Harper has to understand the extent and depth of the anger -- the justified and righteous anger among the opposition parties at the way we've been treated in this Parliament. He seems to misunderstand the very nature of Parliamentary government, and he better start understanding quickly

The political problem facing Canada, as Michael Ignatieff now states it,  is not that Stephen Harper is running the country but rather that he isn't running it properly.

According to Mr. Ignatieff, Stephen Harper simply needs to listen a bit, to "understand".

So why exactly is the new Liberal leader looking for volunteers, ideas and  - what was that other thing? oh yeah  - money out of your pocket to accomplish this goal?

Not clear.

Not clear at all, especially considering that Mr. Ignatieff states flatly that he is not looking for a road to power.

He defines the goal here in a way that does not mean - as a matter of simple fact - that the only possible "stable, responsible government with the national interest in mind" the Liberal Party backs is a Liberal government.

The Prime Minister doesn't have to do very much of anything to hang on to power in that scenario.  He can just remind everyone that he has already moved on the major irritants that caused the proroguing kerfuffle.

Things should be peachy in Ottawa over the holidays. Mark your cards right now that there is no way the Liberal caucus in Ottawa will continue with the coalition and bring down the government. The Conservatives know they have the government firmly in their grip and with Michael Ignatieff safely fronting the Liberals, they know nothing will threaten that in the near future.

This would be pretty much what your humble e-scribbler concluded days ago.

In fact, there really isn't very much of anything that Mr. Harper could do to compel the Liberal insiders who picked this guy to run the party to bring him down and force an election.

If you thought that the old Liberal caucus was feverishly trying avoid an election, just wait 'til you see this crowd. If you want to clear out the Liberal caucus room next year just walk into the place and yell "division!" They'll be out the door and headed down the 416 faster before the "n" leaves your lips.

That's because the Liberal Party under Michael Ignatieff will be too busy looking for the road that takes you away from the centre of national political power in this country.

Sure, they will be looking for people to join a conversation, as Mr. Ignatieff puts it on his blog.  All very much the look and feel of what someone thinks a political bloggy thingy is supposed to look like.

And yes, Mr. Ignatieff does practice the Dale Carnegie crapperific approach to speechifying.  Mention people by their first name a lot and you can imitate what a politician is supposed to sound like, at least to some people's way of thinking.

What you don't get, though, is what a leader and a political party is supposed to act like, what is supposed to be.

You don't get people looking for the road to 24 Sussex.

That's where power is and if the political party isn't lead by a guy looking for that goal, he isn't facing the future.

He's facing oblivion.

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True or false

One of these statements is true.

The other is not.

The only question is which one is which.

Natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale, in the House of Assembly, December 2, 2008:

IOC informed me on Friday morning, Mr. Speaker, that they were going to delay Phase 1 and Phase 2 of their expansion program,...

Natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale, in the House of Assembly, December 10, 2008:

I have met with Terry Bowles, the CEO for IOC, within the last six weeks. I have had a number of telephone conversations with him, Mr. Speaker. I will have another one today. The last communications we had around this piece, which I reported in the House, was that they were going to complete the work that was already started in Phase I and Phase II of their expansion but otherwise, plans were on hold.

Interestingly enough this is not the first time in the House, in December, that Kathy Dunderdale said two completely contradictory things about exactly the same subject.

Anyone remember Joan Cleary?

The government suddenly closed a short session of the House in 2006 when Dunderdale was caught at this sort of misstatement.

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And a week later everywhere else...

IOCC ices expansion plans.

December 2 at Bond Papers, thanks to Kathy Dunderdale's loose lips in the House.

December 10 everywhere else.

It's not like the conventional media don't cover the legislature.

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The economics of Snuffleupagus

Funny thing how people miss stuff.

Like a Bank of Montreal economist who offered this view of the provincial financial state:

"The commodity boom has lined the province's coffers," he said. "Meantime, a reversal in migration flows has sprung population growth back into positive territory after three years of outright declines - an important development given that a lack of skilled labour could be a constraint on the province as offshore development picks up speed and major construction projects come online."

If "lining the coffers" means supported spending way beyond what is sustainable then he's right, but look at that migration comment.

You'll see similar views coming from the provincial government, not surprisingly.  There's lots of talk about the growing population as another sign that the fiscal messiahs are now in charge and that their "plan" is working.

That would be the plan, by the way, that Barack Obama is following.  No, gentle reader, that isn't some effort at humour.  It's a real quote and yes, he believes every word of it.  That's just how brilliant this crowd are.  This plan  - which consists of nothing more grand than spending everything that comes in through the door - must come from all those books, well not books really but articles and magazines the Premier reads 24/7 on a go forward basis to try and keep track of what's going on out there.  

But we digress.

This migration thing.

Three years, eh.

Only goes to show how much these bank economists don't know.

The outmigration problem - and net population decline - goes back to the cod moratorium of the early 1990s. 

It hit some new records in the best years of Danny Williams economic miracle.  That's right.  At a time when the economic miracle was taking hold people were flooding out of the Happy Province in near record numbers. The chart at left gives an idea of how big the problem has been.

There are parts of the province that are almost entirely dependent on migrant labour and remittance workers.

In others - like Stephenville - the economic disaster of losing a pulp and paper mill on the Premier's watch didn't materialize solely because the workers there could find jobs in Alberta.

But yes, you say, there has been more people coming back to the province since 2007, you say.

And yes, that's true, but it isn't because of great economic opportunities in this province.  Look around, especially outside the overpass.  All those enormous, job-creating projects that were supposedly luring people back don't actually exist.

Even though he mentioned them in his financial statement, finance minister Jerome Kennedy told CBC Radio this morning that - in fact - the big projects that supposedly exist to keep the fire going in the economy, stuff like the Lower Churchill, don't actually exist right at the moment.  These are projects Kennedy and his boss are "trying to get money for", according to his own words.

People started coming back to Newfoundland and Labrador, just as they have done previously, in advance of a major downturn in Ontario and Alberta.  Only the stupid came back for jobs that - as Jerome Kennedy knows - don't exist.  The housing boom in St. John's is driven largely by the movement of people within the province toward St. John's where there is at least the chance of decent work. The open taps on those public coffers don't hurt either. You'll find detailed discussions of the whole population thing over at labradore.

It really is funny how people miss stuff. Really obvious stuff that is readily available in the public domain.  People who - presumably - actually keep track of these things like bird-watchers scanning the trees for this winged thing or that.

Evidently not.

Evidently, great big yellow birds get missed a lot.

Aloysius Snuffleupagus would understand.

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An accountability problem for Jerome

Aside from being one of the most arrogant and condescending finance ministers in a long time, Jerome Kennedy might need to brush up on his math a bit.

Here's a sample of the arrogant and condescending finance minister in action first:

It is important, and whether or not the – I understand that the Leader of the Opposition does not understand. Nor would I necessarily expect her to. The reality is that this is not artificial spending here. We are not borrowing to spend on infrastructure. We are taking $1 billion and putting into infrastructure.

Everyday Jerome is on his feet there's at least one of those sort of slimy comments. Totally unnecessary, but he makes them every day.  Too bad there's no one like Antonio around to teach the poor fellow some manners.

But that's not the problem.

Here's the problem:

In Question Period, Jerome revealed that the province's unfunded pension liabilities have grown, according to the finance minister, by $1.5 billion as a result of the downturn in the world economy.  Here's what he told the House:

As the Leader of the Opposition is aware, in 2006 we paid $1.953 billion into the Teachers’ Pension Plan, and a further $982 million into the Public Service Pension Plan 2007, trying to bring these pension plans up to the funding levels of 80 per cent to 85 per cent, which is suggested.

The recent downturn in the economy and what has happened, Mr. Speaker, has resulted in approximately, right now, a shortfall of $1.5 billion in terms of our pension funds. That is not unexpected in light of everything that has gone on, and some of the figures I think I gave last night in terms of losses by the banks.

One figure, though, that becomes important, Mr. Speaker, although we have decreased our debt servicing charges by approximately $200 million, there could be a result in the pension cost next year of an extra $180 million.

That last figure is only somewhat important.

It is only important to the extent that in his financial statement on Tuesday Jerome patted himself on the back for reducing the debt servicing charges.

In the House, he revealed that - all things considered - those charges will grow by roughly the same amount as the decrease this year.  That is important considering that expenditures are going up while revenue is going down.  Not a good position.

But look again at the front end and the middle bit of that quote because that's where the big problem comes in.

The $1.9 billion is the Accord 2005 money received in a lump in 2005 and already spent.  The $982 million - if memory serves - was borrowed.

But all that doesn't matter since the pension fund has lost $1.5 billion in value in the space of a few months.  Apparently those shopping malls mortgaged in Ontario and British Columbia to Great-West Life, among others, aren't pulling in the expected bucks.

The inconsistencies among Jerome's comments at different times gives the old boy a basic problem:  an accountability problem.  He just can't seem to give a straight account of the province's financial state.

That's a pretty bad thing for a finance minister because if anyone needs to be able to keep his accounts straight,  it would be him.

Bottom line?

We won't know the real financial position of the province until sometime after March 31, 2009 and even then we'll likely have to take Jerome's words with a grain of salt.

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The Last King of Chicago

From the Canadian Press:

“You know what I like the most is Barack Obama is listening to what we're doing here,” Mr. Williams said during question period to roars of applause from his Conservative caucus.

“That's a great compliment to this province because I have a lot of respect for that person.”

Here's the rest of it from Hansard:

Premier Williams:...Obama outlines initiatives to create 2.5 million jobs; make public buildings more efficient; repair roads and bridges; modernize schools; increase broadband access –

Some Hon Members: Oh, oh!

Mr. Speaker: Order, please!

Premier Williams: He will do it right because we did it right and he can have our (inaudible) any day of the week.

You just cannot make this stuff up.

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