Senators are expected to pass a bill currently in the Ante-chamber to the Kingdom of Heaven that would fix the next federal election date as October 19, 2009.
That would fit with more than a few political timelines in Newfoundland and Labrador.
27 April 2007
Fabulous Fabe
More than a few in Newfoundland and Labrador were surprised by this picture [Tom Hanson/Canadian Press].Why?
Because instead of federal finance leprechaun John Flaherty sitting next to the Prime Minister, there was Avalon member of parliament Fabian Manning.
Normally a member doesn't get to sit on the treasury benches unless he or she is a member of cabinet. Yet, there's a nattily-dressed Manning, looking on as the much more sartorially splendid Prime Minister tackles questions during the daily Question Period.
Now Newfoundlanders and Labradorians weren't struck by the attire of the two men, although some will certainly note that Fabe looks good without high-priced help.
Nope, wags across the province were wondering why Manning is cuddling up to the Prime Minister during the fracas over Equalization promises. Some are even going so far as to add the Avalon MP to a list of fellows elected to parliament who seem to have turned their backs on their province. They wonder if Manning won't be getting his come-uppance at the polls for supposedly betraying the province.
It's a good question.
Except that the whole premise of the question is based on the belief that one can only be a good, proper, loyal and trustworthy Newfoundlander by backing the provincial government in the crise du jour.
Manning might pay, but by the time of the next federal election - anyone wanna bet on 2008? - odds are good that the ruckus with Harper will be forgotten and Manning will be re-elected handily. On top of that, Manning is the likely choice to replace Loyola Hearn should the province's current federal cabinet representative opt for retirement.
Odds are also good that Manning - ousted from the provincial Tory caucus in a dispute with Premier Danny Williams - will be taking advice from John Crosbie on how to conduct his business. Wouldn't that be an interesting development: Premier Danny Williams dealing with the guy he wouldn't have stay in his own caucus, and the fellow from the Southern Shore having his hand on bags of federal cash.
Talk about come-uppance.
-30-
Update: A quick check of the Commons seating chart indicates that The Fabulous Fabe was actually sitting in the seat normally occupied by Lawrence Cannon, Minister of Transportation.
The finance leprechaun must have been absent that day or just not in the shot.
The finance leprechaun must have been absent that day or just not in the shot.
Another life outside your radio
A few weeks ago, your humble e-scribbler bumped into VOCM talk show host Linda Swain on a street in downtown St. John's.
It seemed strange to see the person in the flesh when usually she is just a voice coming out of the radio.
Swain is a real person, of course and she has a life beyond listening to people ranting about this that and the other.
Swain is also a visual artist, with a new exhibit of her work at the Pollyanna Gallery, Duckworth Street until May 29.
The Telegram's Joan Sullivan has a feature on Swain and her latest exhibition.
It seemed strange to see the person in the flesh when usually she is just a voice coming out of the radio.
Swain is a real person, of course and she has a life beyond listening to people ranting about this that and the other.
Swain is also a visual artist, with a new exhibit of her work at the Pollyanna Gallery, Duckworth Street until May 29.
The Telegram's Joan Sullivan has a feature on Swain and her latest exhibition.
Budget 2007: a quick look at the numbers
The Government of Newfoundland and Labrador forecast record spending for 2007, at more than $5.5 billion.
Some quick observations based on a simple breakdown into the good, the bad and the ugly of the budget:
The Good
Tax cuts and increased program spending.
All good in an election year and make no mistake: this is an election budget.
People will be happy and the provincial government is certainly counting on people's immediate sense of contentment to see the current administration re-elected with an overwhelming majority.
No region of the province is untouched by extra cash. No person will be left out of the tax breaks or other benefits.
The source of the cash: all the supposedly bad deals signed before 2003 by previous administrations, Liberal and Conservative.
Windfalls from high oil prices produced the supposed miracle of deficit slaying. Everything in this budget, indeed every budget increase since 2003 has been based on high oil prices.
Thank you Brian Mulroney and Brian Peckford. Thanks to the administrations that developed Voisey's Bay and the offshore oil fields at Hibernia, Terra Nova and White Rose.
The latter field is expected to hit payout in FY 2007. As a result, royalties will jump to 30% on the price of each barrel.
The Bad
This budget forecasts a spending increase 5.6% from Fiscal Year (FY) 2006. It also projects increased spending of 4.7% and 4.2% over the subsequent two fiscal years.
That's bad since it exceeds the rate of inflation by more than double in FY 2007. The Bank of Canada forecasts inflation to run at 2.2% in 2007 and at 2.7% for each of the two years after.
Prudent fiscal management would hold spending to at most the projected inflation rate. That doesn't mean program spending would need to be curtailed in important areas, nor does it mean the provincial couldn't afford tax cuts to bring provincial rates in line with Atlantic Canada. Rather it would simply require the provincial government to make some clear choices in what it considers important, rather than fix every problem by more spending.
Even in FY 2004 when the current administration proclaimed the province to be in a financial mess, it still introduced a budget that increased spending from the previous year. Spending has increased every year since. That's not going to be sustainable given the absence of a major new development at Hebron, which would have achieved first oil as production from at least two of the other fields slackened.
As it stands currently - and unless there are supersecret talks on Hebron no one is talking about - Hebron won't be producing oil for another decade or more. In the interim, the impact of demographic changes throughout the province will increase pressure on the provincial treasury at a time when the province's coffers will not be seeing significant new cash flowing in.
The current and forecast spending increases are based on optimistic projections for the price of oil in the medium term. Any downward trend in commodity prices (oil, minerals etc) will quickly make the consistent spending increases since 2003 unsustainable. Fiscal reality in those circumstances - taking less money in than is flowing out - would require program cuts, job losses and/or tax increases to correct.
More bad. Per capita spending will be $10, 871 per person in the province, assuming a population of 512, 000. It will jump to $11, 878 per person in FY 2008 putting Newfoundland and Labrador on par with Alberta for per capita provincial government spending. Drop the population below 500,000 and Newfoundland and Labrador will be outspending Alberta, the richest province in the country.
The difference is that Alberta isn't carrying around the per capita debt Newfoundland and Labrador shoulders, which, as noted below using the finance minister's own words, limits the provincial government's options in dealing with any financial setbacks.
That level of per capita spending is unsustainable in the long run. As a recent Atlantic Institute for Market Studies assessment concluded:
As much as the provincial government talks about the large public sector debt, so far it hasn't done anything to deal with it.
Finance minister Tom Marshall described the issue accurately in the budget speech, saying:
If there is a budget surplus in FY 2007, as currently forecast, most if not all should be committed to reducing the public debt. Anything else is whistling past the graveyard.
Government's reported success in reducing the debt to GDP ratio has come not from strong fiscal management by government but in growth in GDP driven primarily by commodity prices. Lower the GDP - as in a drop in commodity prices - and those apparent gains will vanish.
There's another ugly element in the budget reporting and that is in the misleading presentation of revenue from the 2005 agreement with the Government of Canada. It will not produce additional cash for the treasury in FY 2007 despite the claim by the finance minister that "[w]ithout the 2005 Accord negotiated by our Premier, we would be receiving $305.7 million less than we are getting this year."
In reality, that cash has already been received and spent on shoring up the teachers' pension plan. That was sound financial decision, but the provincial finance minister cannot claim double credit for the money.
Statement I in the FY 2007 Estimates shows the reality. A modest $49 million surplus on current and capital account forecast for FY 2007 becomes a $255 million shortfall once the $305 million from the 2005 cash advance is deducted.
Some quick observations based on a simple breakdown into the good, the bad and the ugly of the budget:
The Good
Tax cuts and increased program spending.
All good in an election year and make no mistake: this is an election budget.
People will be happy and the provincial government is certainly counting on people's immediate sense of contentment to see the current administration re-elected with an overwhelming majority.
No region of the province is untouched by extra cash. No person will be left out of the tax breaks or other benefits.
The source of the cash: all the supposedly bad deals signed before 2003 by previous administrations, Liberal and Conservative.
Windfalls from high oil prices produced the supposed miracle of deficit slaying. Everything in this budget, indeed every budget increase since 2003 has been based on high oil prices.
Thank you Brian Mulroney and Brian Peckford. Thanks to the administrations that developed Voisey's Bay and the offshore oil fields at Hibernia, Terra Nova and White Rose.
The latter field is expected to hit payout in FY 2007. As a result, royalties will jump to 30% on the price of each barrel.
The Bad
This budget forecasts a spending increase 5.6% from Fiscal Year (FY) 2006. It also projects increased spending of 4.7% and 4.2% over the subsequent two fiscal years.
That's bad since it exceeds the rate of inflation by more than double in FY 2007. The Bank of Canada forecasts inflation to run at 2.2% in 2007 and at 2.7% for each of the two years after.
Prudent fiscal management would hold spending to at most the projected inflation rate. That doesn't mean program spending would need to be curtailed in important areas, nor does it mean the provincial couldn't afford tax cuts to bring provincial rates in line with Atlantic Canada. Rather it would simply require the provincial government to make some clear choices in what it considers important, rather than fix every problem by more spending.
Even in FY 2004 when the current administration proclaimed the province to be in a financial mess, it still introduced a budget that increased spending from the previous year. Spending has increased every year since. That's not going to be sustainable given the absence of a major new development at Hebron, which would have achieved first oil as production from at least two of the other fields slackened.
As it stands currently - and unless there are supersecret talks on Hebron no one is talking about - Hebron won't be producing oil for another decade or more. In the interim, the impact of demographic changes throughout the province will increase pressure on the provincial treasury at a time when the province's coffers will not be seeing significant new cash flowing in.
The current and forecast spending increases are based on optimistic projections for the price of oil in the medium term. Any downward trend in commodity prices (oil, minerals etc) will quickly make the consistent spending increases since 2003 unsustainable. Fiscal reality in those circumstances - taking less money in than is flowing out - would require program cuts, job losses and/or tax increases to correct.
Our plan is to continue this responsible approach in the years that follow to ensure we are increasingly strong, less reliant on the whims of others and more reliant onThe whims referred to are likely those supposed whims of the Government of Canada. This budget - like all recent budgets - builds itself on the whims of international commodities markets. Which one is less reliable?
ourselves.
More bad. Per capita spending will be $10, 871 per person in the province, assuming a population of 512, 000. It will jump to $11, 878 per person in FY 2008 putting Newfoundland and Labrador on par with Alberta for per capita provincial government spending. Drop the population below 500,000 and Newfoundland and Labrador will be outspending Alberta, the richest province in the country.
The difference is that Alberta isn't carrying around the per capita debt Newfoundland and Labrador shoulders, which, as noted below using the finance minister's own words, limits the provincial government's options in dealing with any financial setbacks.
That level of per capita spending is unsustainable in the long run. As a recent Atlantic Institute for Market Studies assessment concluded:
If the province fails to reign in its whopping per capita government spending (about $8800/person [in FY 2006]) and super-size me civil service (96 provincial government employees /1000 people) it will quickly erode any gains from increased energy revenues.The Ugly
As much as the provincial government talks about the large public sector debt, so far it hasn't done anything to deal with it.
Finance minister Tom Marshall described the issue accurately in the budget speech, saying:
The most significant fiscal challenge facing Newfoundland and Labrador is the burden of debt we inherited, the highest per capita net debt in Canada, more than double the national average. High debt loads mean high interest payments, whether for a family or for a government. Reducing debt frees up money to spend on programs and other priorities.All government has done is produce a net reduction in the debt by a mere $70 million in FY 2006 and forecast a further reduction of $66 million in FY 2007. At that rate - i.e. $70 million per year - the province will be debt free in 2178.
If there is a budget surplus in FY 2007, as currently forecast, most if not all should be committed to reducing the public debt. Anything else is whistling past the graveyard.
Government's reported success in reducing the debt to GDP ratio has come not from strong fiscal management by government but in growth in GDP driven primarily by commodity prices. Lower the GDP - as in a drop in commodity prices - and those apparent gains will vanish.
There's another ugly element in the budget reporting and that is in the misleading presentation of revenue from the 2005 agreement with the Government of Canada. It will not produce additional cash for the treasury in FY 2007 despite the claim by the finance minister that "[w]ithout the 2005 Accord negotiated by our Premier, we would be receiving $305.7 million less than we are getting this year."
In reality, that cash has already been received and spent on shoring up the teachers' pension plan. That was sound financial decision, but the provincial finance minister cannot claim double credit for the money.
Statement I in the FY 2007 Estimates shows the reality. A modest $49 million surplus on current and capital account forecast for FY 2007 becomes a $255 million shortfall once the $305 million from the 2005 cash advance is deducted.
-30-
The Boss is Always Right
And if the Boss is wrong?
Well, in the case of the Russian chief electoral officer, that just isn't possible.
Reuters moved this story earlier in April:
Well, in the case of the Russian chief electoral officer, that just isn't possible.
Reuters moved this story earlier in April:
Doubts over judgment of 'impartial' election official who claims Putin
always right
THE Russian official whose role is to act as an impartial umpire in elections has said in a published interview that president Vladimir Putin is always right.
Kremlin critics have raised doubts about the impartiality of Vladimir Churov, a former colleague of the president's who was last month chosen as chairman of the Central Election Commission.
In his first major newspaper interview since he started his new job, Mr Churov told the Kommersant newspaper yesterday that "Churov's Law No 1" is that Mr Putin is always right.
Asked by the newspaper what would happen if it turned out the Russian leader was mistaken on a certain issue, Mr Churov said: "How can Putin be wrong?"
Mr Churov worked alongside Mr Putin in the 1990s in the same local administration department in St Petersburg.
The new election chief has previously said he will treat all participants in elections fairly and equally.
Mr Churov will have a crucial role overseeing an election to the federal parliament in December and a presidential poll next March, when a replacement for Mr Putin is to be chosen.
In Russia, the election chief is often called on to adjudicate on allegations of vote violations, including claims bureaucrats have used their power to influence the outcome of elections.
Mr Churov replaced the independent-minded Alexander Veshnyakov at the helm of the election commission.
Analysts have interpreted the change of guard as part of a Kremlin plan to ensure a smooth transfer of power to Mr Putin's preferred candidate in the presidential poll.
Mr Putin, accused by critics of rolling back democracy, enjoys strong popularity after seven years of stable economic growth which brought relative prosperity for millions of Russians.
From a course report long ago?
DS: Soldiers will follow this officer if only out of idle curiosity. He should have a bright career in politics.
26 April 2007
Two degrees of separation: Couple scammed in DR
This story is making the national news, but it was circulating widely in Newfoundland and Labrador within a few hours of the couple making it back home.
When travelling in certain countries it is important to know the telephone number for the local Canadian embassy or consulate.
When travelling in certain countries it is important to know the telephone number for the local Canadian embassy or consulate.
Local debater scores big
A St. John's youth has placed 6th in the world overall at the prestigious 2007 World Individual Debating and Public Speaking Championships recently held in Cape Town, South Africa.
Sam Greene, a Level 1 student at Holy Heart of Mary High School placed 3rd in the debating event, broke to the top ten in the Impromptu Speaking event and placed in the top 15 in the Interpretive Speaking and Persuasive Speaking events.
At 16, Sam was the youngest member of the Canadian delegation of 12 top debate and public speaking competitors from across Canada. This was only the third time in 25 years a student from this province has qualified to compete at the World Individual Debating and Public Speaking Championships. As a level 1 student, he is eligible to compete at this level for another two years.
He qualified for the international event at the CanWest National Public Speaking Championships in Winnipeg earlier this Spring, where he won first place in debating and placed 7th overall nationally.
On Wednesday, Sam along with two other local students, leaves for Ottawa to participate in the qualifying trials to select Team Canada for other upcoming international events. Members of this team of 9 students will represent Canada at the Pan-American Student Debate Championships, the European Student Debate Championships and ultimately the Worlds Schools Debate Championship.
Jonny Lomond (Holy Heart High School) and Kirsten Morry (Prince of Wales Collegiate) are the other two students participating at the qualifying trials to select Team Canada.
Sam Greene, a Level 1 student at Holy Heart of Mary High School placed 3rd in the debating event, broke to the top ten in the Impromptu Speaking event and placed in the top 15 in the Interpretive Speaking and Persuasive Speaking events.
At 16, Sam was the youngest member of the Canadian delegation of 12 top debate and public speaking competitors from across Canada. This was only the third time in 25 years a student from this province has qualified to compete at the World Individual Debating and Public Speaking Championships. As a level 1 student, he is eligible to compete at this level for another two years.
He qualified for the international event at the CanWest National Public Speaking Championships in Winnipeg earlier this Spring, where he won first place in debating and placed 7th overall nationally.
On Wednesday, Sam along with two other local students, leaves for Ottawa to participate in the qualifying trials to select Team Canada for other upcoming international events. Members of this team of 9 students will represent Canada at the Pan-American Student Debate Championships, the European Student Debate Championships and ultimately the Worlds Schools Debate Championship.
Jonny Lomond (Holy Heart High School) and Kirsten Morry (Prince of Wales Collegiate) are the other two students participating at the qualifying trials to select Team Canada.
-30-
AG to get fibreoptic documents
After months of insisting that provincial law prevented cabinet from releasing cabinet documents to the Auditor General, cabinet has decided to give Auditor General John Noseworthy access to documents relevant to his review of a controversial fibreoptic cable deal between government and a private sector consortium.
No explanation for the change is included in the CBC story linked above, but the decision by cabinet is consistent with an idea advanced by Bond Papers before Christmas (first link above) that the Ag could be given access based on cabinet discretion.
No explanation for the change is included in the CBC story linked above, but the decision by cabinet is consistent with an idea advanced by Bond Papers before Christmas (first link above) that the Ag could be given access based on cabinet discretion.
The new Oldest Living Father of Confederation
One story for home. One for away.
It must be like a hockey team with a white shirt for home games and a dark one for away, except this one has a white shirt for both, depending on your perspective.
At home, Danny Williams is a fearless champion of Newfoundland nationalism. White shirt.
In Winnipeg, he's a fearless Canadian fighting the Newfoundland separatists. A different white shirt.
No joking.
From the Canadian Press post-throne speech coverage:
Uh huh.
Riiiiiight.
Update: There's a related story on cbc.ca/nl.
It must be like a hockey team with a white shirt for home games and a dark one for away, except this one has a white shirt for both, depending on your perspective.
At home, Danny Williams is a fearless champion of Newfoundland nationalism. White shirt.
In Winnipeg, he's a fearless Canadian fighting the Newfoundland separatists. A different white shirt.
No joking.
From the Canadian Press post-throne speech coverage:
Premier Danny Williams says he's trying to quell separatist feelings within Newfoundland and Labrador, despite a throne speech that suggested the province should push for more autonomy from Ottawa."The fans of sovereignty are here. If anything, I've been trying to dampen those fires as much as I can," Williams said yesterday.
"Dampen those fires as much as I can"?
Uh huh.
Riiiiiight.
Update: There's a related story on cbc.ca/nl.
-30-
Reasons there's no spring election, number whatever
Sucky poll results.
Strategic Counsel's numbers for the Globe: CPC 36/LPC 30/NDP 13/BQ 39.
And that's on the heels of the Decima results as reported by Canadian Press. The Conservatives at 30 are virtually tied with the Liberals, showing at 29. Decima's poll a month ago showed the federal Conservatives at 39%.
Strategic Counsel's numbers for the Globe: CPC 36/LPC 30/NDP 13/BQ 39.
And that's on the heels of the Decima results as reported by Canadian Press. The Conservatives at 30 are virtually tied with the Liberals, showing at 29. Decima's poll a month ago showed the federal Conservatives at 39%.
25 April 2007
Details, please
Ministerial statements like this one are much more persuasive if they include concrete examples of accomplishments.
As it is, we just have a bunch of irrelevant numbers and a cabinet minister patting himself on the back.
This statement looks like every other release or statement on the same project: unconvincing.
Anyone can write down a number, set an arbitrary and unverifiable number and the en later claim to have made steady progress by simply printing different numbers.
Just because it comes in a government news release doesn't mean that it is inherently credible.
As it is, we just have a bunch of irrelevant numbers and a cabinet minister patting himself on the back.
This statement looks like every other release or statement on the same project: unconvincing.
Anyone can write down a number, set an arbitrary and unverifiable number and the en later claim to have made steady progress by simply printing different numbers.
Just because it comes in a government news release doesn't mean that it is inherently credible.
Terra Nova back in the cash
High oil prices mean that the Terra Nova oilfield has recovered recent refurbishment costs on the production platform and is now pumping higher royalties into provincial coffers, six weeks ahead of schedule.
The provincial government now receives 30% of the price of each barrel of oil produced under the royalty regime established with the provincial government.
Under the Atlantic Accord (1985), the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador sets royalty and other revenue rate for the offshore. It receives and retains 100% of the amount it sets. in addition, the provincial government continues to receive federal transfers for a fixed period under terms set out in the 1985 Accord and in a 2005 add-on deal between the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador and the Government of Canada.
The provincial government now receives 30% of the price of each barrel of oil produced under the royalty regime established with the provincial government.
Under the Atlantic Accord (1985), the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador sets royalty and other revenue rate for the offshore. It receives and retains 100% of the amount it sets. in addition, the provincial government continues to receive federal transfers for a fixed period under terms set out in the 1985 Accord and in a 2005 add-on deal between the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador and the Government of Canada.
Why there won't be a federal election this spring
1. Canada's New Government apparently has trouble with fax machines.
2. There is a brewing Afghanistan controversy that will hurt everywhere, but especially in Quebec.
2. There is a brewing Afghanistan controversy that will hurt everywhere, but especially in Quebec.
24 April 2007
The Newfoundland Nationalist orthodoxy
Given the nationalist rhetoric permeating the latest provincial throne speech, it might be useful to examine the writings of another Newfoundland nationalist.
The following piece appeared in the St. John's Telegram in 1998 under the title "Confederation orthodoxy". It's author, John Fitzgerald, today serves as the provincial representative in Ottawa, or as it might seem to some "our man in a Blue Line cab."
While his doctoral thesis was on the Roman Catholic church in Newfoundland in the middle of the 19th century, Fitzgerald's master's thesis was titled The Confederation of Newfoundland with Canada, 1946-1949. His interpretation has been criticised by other historians, but it did serve as the inspiration for the entertaining but fictional movie Secret nation.
The film contended that Confederation was the result of a giant plot involving foreign powers that included falsifying the final referendum result. Fitzgerald's account below does not come to that conclusion, but there is no doubt that he leans heavily on a peculiar interpretation of selected information to attack what he views as Confederate mythology. It is all to common for self-proclaimed myth debunkers to propagate a few myths of their own and Fitzgerald is no exception. He recites neatly the townie anti-Confederate catechism.
For that reason, and given Fitzgerald's current position as a senior advisor to the Premier, here is Fitzgerald's 1998 view:
The following piece appeared in the St. John's Telegram in 1998 under the title "Confederation orthodoxy". It's author, John Fitzgerald, today serves as the provincial representative in Ottawa, or as it might seem to some "our man in a Blue Line cab."
While his doctoral thesis was on the Roman Catholic church in Newfoundland in the middle of the 19th century, Fitzgerald's master's thesis was titled The Confederation of Newfoundland with Canada, 1946-1949. His interpretation has been criticised by other historians, but it did serve as the inspiration for the entertaining but fictional movie Secret nation.
The film contended that Confederation was the result of a giant plot involving foreign powers that included falsifying the final referendum result. Fitzgerald's account below does not come to that conclusion, but there is no doubt that he leans heavily on a peculiar interpretation of selected information to attack what he views as Confederate mythology. It is all to common for self-proclaimed myth debunkers to propagate a few myths of their own and Fitzgerald is no exception. He recites neatly the townie anti-Confederate catechism.
For that reason, and given Fitzgerald's current position as a senior advisor to the Premier, here is Fitzgerald's 1998 view:
Confederation orthodoxy
John Fitzgerald
The Telegram
St. John's, NL
April 6, 1998
Page 6
The Telegram editorial of April 1, celebrating 49 years of Confederation as a "qualified success," claimed that Newfoundland would have been much worse off as an independent country than as a Canadian province, and that without Ottawa, Newfoundland might return to the "grinding poverty" of the 1930s. This is the same tired orthodoxy that The Telegram and Smallwood preached in 1948: Newfoundland would not survive without Confederation.
Newfoundland very likely could have prospered without Confederation. For nine of the 10 years before Confederation Newfoundland had a balanced budget. On the eve of Confederation, Newfoundland had two-per-cent unemployment and a per-capita debt which was one-tenth of Canada's. On the eve of Confederation, Newfoundland had an accumulated surplus on current account of $43 million and $12 million in interest-free loans to Britain. In 1998 dollars this would be close to $1 billion. Was this prosperity temporary? No. Newfoundland changed forever in the 1940s. If the absence of a House of Assembly at the time prevented Newfoundlanders from knowing it or doing anything about it, then Canada certainly did know the wealth and value of Newfoundland.
Confederation may have been an qualified success for Canada, but not so for Newfoundland. Canada feared that Newfoundland could have used its resources to survive and prosper independently. The Ottawa mandarins realized that Confederation would help extract the Americans from their bases in Newfoundland. Newfoundland also had two of the largest airports in the world, situated on the Great Circle air route.
Canada wanted them, and acquired them with Confederation. It then used the control of the airports and landing rights to force its own way into American markets which had previously excluded Canada. In 1946, Newfoundland had an estimated 300 million tons of iron ore in Labrador, which Canada was interested in exploiting. (In March 1996 the IOC blasted the one billionth ton of iron ore out of Labrador, while Newfoundland still collects revenues under the 1944 royalty regime established by the Commission of Government which allows Newfoundland five per cent of what the IOC tells us their profits are.) Ottawa knew that controlling Newfoundland's fisheries would eliminate Newfoundland from competing with Nova Scotia for markets for its fish. (Could Newfoundland have managed its cod stocks any worse than Canada has?)
On Oct. 17, 1946, the Canadian High Commissioner in Newfound land, Scott Macdonald, wrote Ottawa about the benefits Newfoundland would bring to Canada. Newfoundland had "very considerable mineral and forest resources as well as easy access to the finest fishing grounds in the world." Confederation "would solve, permanently, all questions of post-war military and civil aviation rights which are at present terminable after March 31, 1949, on 12 months' notice. It would make possible a common jurisdiction over North Atlantic fisheries. ..."
And would Newfoundland return to poverty? Not likely. "Moreover," Macdonald wrote, "(Newfoundland) is richer by the investment of at least $100 million by Canada and at least $300 million by the United States primarily for defence but much of which was spent on roads, wharfs (sic), telephone lines, warehouses, similar buildings, radio ranges, airfields, the training of Newfoundlanders in various technical jobs, etc. and has redounded to the general development of the country." In Macdonald's view, Newfoundland thus had the infrastructure to sustain prosperity.
For Canada, Newfoundland's Confederation was not about the welfare state or about helping Newfoundlanders "out of poverty" (for which, The Globe and Mail tells us, we must be eternally grateful). Rather, it was about acquiring valuable resources, eliminating competition, acquiring very valuable aspects of Newfoundland's sovereignty, and doing it all rather deeply [cheaply?]. After all, Smallwood's Confederation campaigns only cost CD Howe and the Liberal Party of Canada a cool half-million bucks.
-30-
Destiny, nationalism and a Speech from the Throne
Following is an extract from remarks by Premier Danny Williams in the House of Assembly following the throne speech.
The words are taken almost directly from the throne speech since, as convention dictates, it is the Premier who writes the speech.
Both for Newfoundlanders and Labradorians and for their fellow Canadians across Canada, the speech is an interesting clue to the thinking of the feisty first minister.
For example, note that in his speech, as in the throne speech, Williams refers to something called "Ottawa", as if it were a foreign capital.
Some people should also take note of a particular sentence, that "we cannot rely upon those elected to offices outside of this Province to deliver what is in our own best interest." This sentence, repeated in the throne speech and in the news release issued on Tuesday afternoon, should give pause to Stephane Dion, with whom the Premier met on Saturday.
It should surely give pause to all those incumbents federal members of parliament from this province and those likely candidates for it means clearly that Danny Williams does not and will not trust you. These words mean, unequivocally, that elected representatives of the people of Newfoundland and Labrador are not to be trusted merely because they represent the people of the province somewhere other than in the House of Assembly controlled utterly by the current provincial administration.
Scott? Walter? Paul? Peter? Siobhan? Fabian? Gerry? Loyola?
One wonders if they get the point.
Note as well, in the second last paragraph the number of claims that have no substance behind them. The current revenue wave which alone produced the economic miracle Williams claims credit for came as a direct result of the Atlantic Accord (1985).
This landmark in federal-provincial relations was achieved as a direct result of agreement between two strong governments and on the federal side is a direct consequence of efforts by John Crosbie. The negotiations were lengthy and difficult. The deal came close to failing but in the end, through the determination of both the federal and provincial governments, an historic agreement was achieved.
In the current context, a modern John Crosbie would likely get not a lick of support from Danny Williams merely because he was "elected to federal office outside the province". The truth is, that as a direct result of both the federal government and a capable federal minister from this province, Newfoundland and Labrador has never before been in such a position of strength. Nationalists will find that a bitter pill to swallow but it is far closer to reality that anything uttered by the Premier on the matter today.
In the current though, that agreement may be in some jeopardy. The federal government is seeking to amend the deal in direct violation of section 60 of the 1985 Accord. The provincial government - who should be guarding the Accord vigilantly - apparently did not notice that section and still ignores it some three weeks after finance minister Tom Marshall said that provincial lawyers were checking to see if the federal government could unilaterally amend the 1985 Accord.
Instead, the Premier makes much of the "broken promise". Should the federal government succeed in amending the Accord unilaterally, the joint management rights and/or the very revenues on which the Danny Williams miracle has taken place - not the added hand-outs, but the provincially determined direct revenues - might be in jeopardy.
Flowery rhetoric is a fine thing. Quoting William Jennings Bryan on destiny is a fine thing, but perhaps adapting another Bryan quote would be more useful in describing the Premier's speech(es): it seems to me it would be too exacting to confine the Premier to the facts; if he is not allowed to get away from the facts, what has he to deal with?
What does he have indeed?
__________________
Hansard, 24 April, 2007:
The words are taken almost directly from the throne speech since, as convention dictates, it is the Premier who writes the speech.
Both for Newfoundlanders and Labradorians and for their fellow Canadians across Canada, the speech is an interesting clue to the thinking of the feisty first minister.
For example, note that in his speech, as in the throne speech, Williams refers to something called "Ottawa", as if it were a foreign capital.
Some people should also take note of a particular sentence, that "we cannot rely upon those elected to offices outside of this Province to deliver what is in our own best interest." This sentence, repeated in the throne speech and in the news release issued on Tuesday afternoon, should give pause to Stephane Dion, with whom the Premier met on Saturday.
It should surely give pause to all those incumbents federal members of parliament from this province and those likely candidates for it means clearly that Danny Williams does not and will not trust you. These words mean, unequivocally, that elected representatives of the people of Newfoundland and Labrador are not to be trusted merely because they represent the people of the province somewhere other than in the House of Assembly controlled utterly by the current provincial administration.
Scott? Walter? Paul? Peter? Siobhan? Fabian? Gerry? Loyola?
One wonders if they get the point.
Note as well, in the second last paragraph the number of claims that have no substance behind them. The current revenue wave which alone produced the economic miracle Williams claims credit for came as a direct result of the Atlantic Accord (1985).
This landmark in federal-provincial relations was achieved as a direct result of agreement between two strong governments and on the federal side is a direct consequence of efforts by John Crosbie. The negotiations were lengthy and difficult. The deal came close to failing but in the end, through the determination of both the federal and provincial governments, an historic agreement was achieved.
In the current context, a modern John Crosbie would likely get not a lick of support from Danny Williams merely because he was "elected to federal office outside the province". The truth is, that as a direct result of both the federal government and a capable federal minister from this province, Newfoundland and Labrador has never before been in such a position of strength. Nationalists will find that a bitter pill to swallow but it is far closer to reality that anything uttered by the Premier on the matter today.
In the current though, that agreement may be in some jeopardy. The federal government is seeking to amend the deal in direct violation of section 60 of the 1985 Accord. The provincial government - who should be guarding the Accord vigilantly - apparently did not notice that section and still ignores it some three weeks after finance minister Tom Marshall said that provincial lawyers were checking to see if the federal government could unilaterally amend the 1985 Accord.
Instead, the Premier makes much of the "broken promise". Should the federal government succeed in amending the Accord unilaterally, the joint management rights and/or the very revenues on which the Danny Williams miracle has taken place - not the added hand-outs, but the provincially determined direct revenues - might be in jeopardy.
Flowery rhetoric is a fine thing. Quoting William Jennings Bryan on destiny is a fine thing, but perhaps adapting another Bryan quote would be more useful in describing the Premier's speech(es): it seems to me it would be too exacting to confine the Premier to the facts; if he is not allowed to get away from the facts, what has he to deal with?
What does he have indeed?
__________________
Hansard, 24 April, 2007:
We are not prepared to tolerate a future of relying on others economically or having others manipulate us into selling ourselves short on resource benefits because we have all seen where that leads. Our people have learned that the best way to achieve self-reliance economically is to achieve self-reliance politically, by taking charge of our future as a people. I do not mean this in any separatist way. People should not read anything into that, because we are all strong nationalists and we are proud Canadians.
Political self-reliance simply means that we cannot rely upon those elected to offices outside of this Province to deliver what is in our own best interest. We must achieve that on our own. Self-reliance will not come by depending on others to achieve it for us. That is a lesson we have learned year after year, generation after generation. So we will harness the desire among Newfoundlanders and Labradorians to cultivate greater political, financial and moral autonomy vis-a-vis Ottawa. As a distinct people and as equal partners, Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal together, we will write a new future for Newfoundland and Labrador; a future of our own design, where mutual understanding, justice, equality, fairness and co-operation are the order of the day.
As the Throne Speech states, we will define our own future. We will strengthen our financial autonomy and our fiscal capacity to meet our own obligations by diversifying and growing our own economy; by reducing Newfoundland and Labrador’s burden of debt on our children; by pursuing a fair, fiscal balance between levels of government and by reducing our dependence on equalization payments.
We now have the ability to aspire to something better for Newfoundland and Labrador. We have the natural resources. We have the human resources and the opportunities that will enable us to achieve self-reliance on our own steam and on our own terms. Even though the federal government will not assist in the way they promised, we will continue to put the resource revenues we are permitted to keep to work for our people.
The truth is, that despite the federal government, never before have we been in a position of such strength. Revenues are strong. Our fiscal position is strong. Our record of expenditure growth has been responsible and strategic. Our standing before our credit rating agencies has never been better. Our resource portfolio is increasingly strong and very attractive to investors, and our collective political will as a people has never been stronger.
We have the financial leverage to accomplish things that are in our Province’s best interest and the fiscal means to stand firm before those who are pressuring us to sell ourselves short. We are negotiating from a position of strength. We can afford to say no to bad deals and hold out for agreements that will result in long-term gain for our Province, not just short-term band-aid solutions, Mr. Speaker.
-30-
The agenda revealed: Throne Speech 2007
We as Newfoundlanders and Labradorians aspire, not to perpetual subservience, but to self-sufficiency. Our people are not content to tolerate a future of relying on others economically. However, our people have now also learned that we will achieve self-reliance economically only by taking charge of our future as a people. To that end, My Government will harness the desire among Newfoundlanders and Labradorians to cultivate greater cultural, financial and moral autonomy vis-Ã -vis Ottawa. Our priority is the well-being of successive generations of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians, including those who live here now and those we welcome to join us from all over the world. My Government will affirm Newfoundland and Labrador’s status as a distinct people, not uniform in lineage but multi-cultural, one nation inclusive of many nations living in harmony together. [Emphasis added]The goal is autonomy.
What that means and how to get there are not clearly defined.
From the Throne Speech
A curious claim given that on Hebron there are no talks and the province has yet to sign off on White Rose expansion. Hibernia South is still mired in "talks":
As for Hebron, maybe the truthiness of the statement depends on what ones' definition of "soon" is.
In Newfoundland and Labrador’s offshore oil and gas sector, massive energy opportunities are matched by My Government’s confidence that further activity will soon be occurring at Hibernia South, White Rose and Hebron-Ben Nevis as exploration proceeds in other basins. My Government also launched industry consultations to develop an offshore natural gas royalty regime that will provide clarity to industry. This should facilitate the development of our immense natural gas resource potential in a manner that provides a fair return to industry and the people of this province.Maybe White Rose will get the nod, giving credence to John Lau's claims of having a great relationship with Danny Williams.
As for Hebron, maybe the truthiness of the statement depends on what ones' definition of "soon" is.
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