22 May 2007

Just askin'...

When will Steve in Kabul not be news?

Maybe Harper's planning to run in the Afghan general election.

He spends more time in Kabul than in Kitchener or Kamloops.

Maybe Canada and Afghanistan could trade. We could pick up Karzai and a local warlord to be named later.

We could send them Harper and one or two provincial premiers with despotic tendencies.

Might be good for both countries.

-srbp-

Let the lawyers stick to the law

Eastern Health authority listened to its lawyers last year when it disclosed only certain information about problems with its cancer screening tests.

Now the authority is caught up in a series of mea culpa briefings for news media, politicians and just about anyone else connected to this story.

But one of the results of this little fiasco was predictable: bags of publicity for the lawyers leading the class-action suit and, then inevitably, even more people suing the authority over the entire mess.

So one lesson to learn from all this?

Let the lawyer's stick to the law.

'Cause when lawyers start practicing public relations, things have a tendency to get royally shagged up.

-srbp-

21 May 2007

Pollyanna Dunderdale, part I: offshore exploration license trends

Newfoundland and Labrador's energy minister Kathy Dunderdale claims that the offering of a mere five parcels of offshore real estate in the 2007 call for exploration bids a sign of renewed interest in the province's offshore oil and gas prospects.

Specifically, she focuses on the interest in Labrador:
"This year’s Call for Bids focuses on offshore Labrador, which, up to this point has been relatively unexplored compared to other areas of our offshore. Industry obviously has confidence in the prospectivity of these parcels and this puts us on a path of having additional discoveries in this region."
In an election year and in polling season (Corporate Research Associates is in the field right now) any government would have an interest in puffing up good news or trying to create good news where a more sober analysis might lead one to something other than a pollyanna-ish conclusion.

If we take a very simple look at the overall picture, this year's call for bids is nothing to crow about. There are only five parcels in the current bid. Last year, there were twice as many.

Even with the number of parcels offered last year, the experience in 2006 is an object lesson on why we should draw conclusions on the number of licenses issued and facts related to that rather than on the number of parcels offered.

Since 1988 when the first parcels were offered, the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board posts parcels for sale based on expressions of interest from likely explorers. There are rules and conditions attached to the holding of an exploration license. There are also costs associated with all of it. As we can see from the chart, the number of parcels offered is no indication of how many parcels will actually turn into licenses.
Last year, for example, NL 06-2 contained three parcels. Even though a company or companies had expressed interest in them, there were no bids received. NL 06-1 and NL 06-2 contained a total of eight parcels, with bids ultimately being received on six. In other words, only half the parcels offered actually attracted bids.

Check the years before that. There have been a whole bunch of years in which the number of parcels bid were a lot lower. If you look just at the past couple of years, you might even believe that things are getting better. The lines go up and up is good.

Well, maybe yes; maybe no. If we look at licenses (bids) as a percentage of parcels offered, we see some interesting numbers. These really clarify the relationships noted in the first chart. Out of the 16 years in which lands have been offered for sale since 1988, bids matched offers in only five cases or 31%. Another five cases fall above the 60% line. The remainder are below 60%.

If we extrapolate that data, we might reasonably project that at least three parcels will be bid at the end of this whole thing sometime in the fall. That would put this year's land sale at the bottom end of the chart. It's hardly encouraging at all. Even if the entire number of parcels in this sale were turned into licenses, we'd still be in the bottom portion of our license experience.Another way to look at offshore would be a look at the money bid. The next chart shows that over the past three years, that even though there is a minor upswing in the number of licenses issued, the dollar value has dropped.

Dollar values are a gauge of costs involved in exploration but they also reflect the level of interest and competition. In a period of high interest and high competition, bids will increase. When interest is waning or there is relatively little overall interest due to costs, bids decrease.

In the early 1990s for example, when oil prices were low and the western economies were in recession, the bids were low. There were even two years in which no lands were offered. No one was interested.

By contrast, if you look at the period after the basic royalty regime was announced, the dollar bids, the number of parcels offered and the number of licenses issued was high across the board. Even with high exploration costs - those things are pretty much fixed - and a relatively low price for oil with equally low forecasts, companies were interested in the local offshore.

That's not a coincidence. These three points are linked. A globally competitive royalty regime produced interest from the investment community. it's also important to note that in the same time frame, the operators on the last major oil field discovered to date also returned to the Newfoundland offshore and began examining how to get a very costly field into production.

When poorly informed commentators talk about fallow field legislation and mention Hebron, they fail to notice crucial facts. Hebron is heavy, sour crude in heavily fragmented structures. It will be expensive to develop - compared to the three other fields - and it will also get a lower price on the market. Oil prices are publicly quoted based on light sweet. Heavy sour sells at prices lower than than that. Heavy sour is also more costly to refine and produces relatively fewer end products for a given amount of crude at the start.

Add that together and you can see why Hebron was considered non-commercial for most of the 25 years since it was discovered. A combination of factors, not the least of which was a stable, competitive royalty regime and the investment returned.

Is the current land sale a sign of great things to come, as suggested by the provincial natural resources minister.

Not really.

It isn't a sign of good or bad times, necessarily.

In part II we'll take a look at the specific parcels offered in this sale.

-srbp-

19 May 2007

That's Riche

riche (n): an overwrought use of an inappropriate analogy, based on the writer's obvious and complete ignorance of world and local history; to repeatedly display ignorance by persisting in the use of said inappropriate analogy; to confuse fiction with fact.

Alternately, to believe a work of fiction is actually a documentary.

As in: "That's riche" or "He pulled a riche" or "Of course, Confederation was a plot. Didn't you see Secret Nation?"

As in this letter to the editor of the Telegram from Ed Riche.

-sbrp-

Andy Wells to run?

Steve Kent decided around Christmas to run for the House of Assembly.

He didn't formally declare until yesterday.

A week after he spoke at the Rally for Danny.

In the meantime, he had a few things, including a boundary dispute, to keep his profile up there as a fighting Mount Pearler.

Follow so far?

Good.

Mayor Andy Wells.

Being his usual annoying, abrasive - and uninformed - self.

Behaving at the offshore regulatory board the same way he used to carry on at the public utilities border 20 years ago. Insulting people with terms that could be better used to describe himself.

Same boring stuff.

Someone leaked a letter to CBC Radio from the chair of the offshore board complaining about Wells. Wasn't the federal minister. Likely wasn't the provincial minister. Definitely wasn't the offshore board.

Who's left?

The same guy who leaked the story of his failed nomination for the top job at the board in the first place?

Good guess.

You see the same letter wound up in the hands of the Independent along with a marvelous, long-winded interview full of quotes.

But here's the thing.

The whole issue didn't need to pop up in the public domain right now. After all the letter was written almost a month ago and the incident involved goes back months before that.

So it gets the thoughts flowing.

If one mayor in the region is running for Danny, maybe the other big mayor will be running for him as well. Maybe this is just another one of those cheesy little stunts to keep Andy Wells' name in the news. Lord knows fixing the streets wouldn't be quite as newsworthy as Wells calling someone a hack, a word incidentally which describes the mayor to a tee.

So where would he run?

In Kent's case, both his intentions and his seat choice were wrapped up in a neat little bow, right next to the "it's all about leadership" crap that he would use to explain away what appears to many to be a track record of political opportunism.

In Well's case - if he were to run - there are actually a couple of options.

St. John's East is a safe Tory seat. It's currently held by intergovernmental affairs minister John Ottenheimer. Now Ottenheimer - surely one of the finest cabinet ministers in a while in this province - is not expected to run again.

But Andy doesn't quite fit the St. John's east profile.

That's a seat better suited to say, Dean MacDonald.

(Now there's an announcement that wouldn't surprise anyone. All that would be left to complete the set after that is a seat for Ken and job for Mel. Call it Cable Newfoundland and Labrador. An unregulated political monopoly. But I digress.)

Anyway, the seat most likely to suit any ambitions Andy might have would be the one currently held by the New Democrat leader, Lorraine Michael.

So there you have it. Speculation of the week. Andy Wells will be running for Danny in Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi.

And some smart bunny out there will undoubtedly connect up the rest of the political dots federally and provincially on his or her own.

The follies continue: yet another two week delay in the spending scandal report

The report by Chief Justice Derek Green into pay and benefits for members of the House of Assembly has been delayed three times so far.

It has always been promised within two weeks.

It's delayed again.

And yes, you guessed it.

It should be delivered within two weeks.

At the same time, the Premier's Office is not committing to implementing the report before the next election.

You see this is what happens when people get involved who pay no attention to the existing law and past practice.

Chief Justice Green's little investigation is a completely bizarre - and unconstitutional? - effort to circumvent the established process and place control of pay for the legislature in the hands of the executive branch of government.

It is a dodgy constitutional proposition even if it isn't outright unconstitutional.

There was already a mechanism established and used for decades to handle pay and benefits. The same process was used in 1989 to set up the Morgan commission, It worked. There were tight rules and definitions that were followed.

Immediately after a general election, the House of Assembly would appoint a commission with the powers of a public inquiry to establish pay and other forms of remuneration for legislators. The commissioner would report within 90 days.

As set out by law, in black and white for all to read and understand.

That system worked until 1996, when the current Premier's stylistic predecessor and his colleagues tossed it out the window.

They decided to make the rules up as they go along.

And basically, that's what the current Premier is doing.

Making the rules up as he goes along.

And that is wrong.

There was never any legitimate reason to appoint Chief Justice Green to this little project.

That is, unless there was some reason to be concerned what would turn up if someone had the powers of a public inquiry.

Chief Justice Green was deliberately denied those powers by the Premier and the rest of cabinet.

And so we wait yet again with no commitments to act on the highly improper report even when it is received.

because there are no rules.

And that's been problem in the House of Assembly since 1996.

Everyone thinks the rules apply to everyone else.

But him.

-srbp-

Background: The Internal Economy Commission Act.

Inquiry re salaries, etc.

13. (1) The House of Assembly may by resolution appoint, upon those terms and conditions that are set out in the resolution, an independent commission of not more than 3 persons to conduct an inquiry and prepare a report respecting the indemnities, allowances and salaries to be paid to members of the House of Assembly.

(2) The persons appointed under subsection (1) shall have all and may exercise all the powers, privileges and immunities of persons appointed as commissioners under the Public Inquiries Act.

(3) The persons appointed under subsection (1) shall complete their inquiry and deliver their report containing recommendations to the speaker within 90 days of the commission's appointment.

(4) The speaker, upon receipt of the report containing the recommendations of the persons appointed under subsection (1), shall refer the recommendations to the commission as soon as possible following the receipt of them and the commission shall implement the recommendations with or without the changes the commission considers appropriate.

(5) [Rep. by 1999 c14 s2]

18 May 2007

Ouch!

Offal News on Steve Kent.

Wells to offshore board chair: "He can get stuffed on that."

In a situation that is likely no surprise to anyone, St. John's mayor Andy Wells is in hot water with the chairman of the offshore regulatory board.

CBC News is reporting that Max Ruelokke, chairman and chief executive officer of the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Board complaining about comments made by Wells in a recent oil magazine article. Wells, who is a provincial appointee to the board, reportedly called the board "incompetent" in its recent handling of a development application.

The provincial government vetoed the board's approval claiming a lack of information, even though the provincial government did nothing while the application was in process to obtain the information it claimed it needed.

In January, the board took the unprecedented step of releasing its decision and associated correspondence, although the documents have been removed from the board's website.
"He can get stuffed on that," Wells said.

"He's not going to be telling me how I'm going to respond to any issues that come before this board. I'm not going to stand by and allow some bureaucratic hack to tell me what I can and cannot say on matters of public interest," he said.
Wells was Premier Danny Williams surprise choice in 2005 to head the board, coming as it did despite the fact that the selection process agreed to by both the federal and provincial governments was well under way.

Wells didn't get the job, even after a second process as established under the Atlantic Accord (1985).

Wells has commented publicly on the decision previously.

-srbp-

Punt O'Connor now

If anyone needs to see a perfect excuse as to why the country needs a new defence minister, consider his testimony to the House of Commons committee reviewing defence estimates.

Most of Gordon O'Connor's answers to questions are meaningless talking points. In fact for significant chunks of the questioning, O'Connor repeats the same lines over and over and over again.

No substance.

No content.

It is astonishing the number of responses that are merely four or five short sentences in length.

The most typical answer in Gordo's exchange with Labrador member of parliament Todd Russell?

"Mr. Chair, when the government makes the decision on precise commitments, the announcements will be made."

This is a minister who can in no way be accused of being in control of his portfolio. He clearly cannot command a brief, and one would venture that his course report in minister training school likely would have said: "people will follow this minister if only out of idle curiosity."

O'Connor has likely bogged his office and it will take more than a couple of strong hands and an armoured recovery vehicle to get the former tank driver out of his current mess.

O'Connor's performance is evidence of a minister incapable of coping with the management of one of the largest and most important departments in the Government of Canada.

Memo to PMO: Punt O'Connor now.

That action alone will do more to rebuild the Canadian Forces than any cash ever spent.

-sbrp-

Sanford looking at disappointing first quarter results

From the New Zealand Herald:
Fish exporter Sanford warned of a disappointing first half result, after a high New Zealand dollar ate into profit and weaker United States markets dampened sales.

Revenue was down 2 per cent for the six months ended March 31, as disappointing sales in the second quarter reversed a 15 per cent rise in the first three months.

...
Profit would be boosted by a one-off gain of over $6m on the sale of Sanford's Argentine investment.

Proposals to sell the major assets in its 15-per cent owned Fishery Products in Canada were under consideration. If concluded, the sales could result in a one-off gain of about $20m, [Sanford managing director Eric] Barratt said.

-srbp-

Exxon returns to Timor Sea

Oil giant ExxonMobil is farming in on a prospect in the Timor Sea, marking a return to the region for the company after a decade's absence.
The well will be drilled beginning in September by the new Wilcraft jackup rig.

An Exxon spokesman yesterday described Marina as an exciting prospect. The farm-in with a junior was a clear sign of the company's enthusiasm. In recent years Exxon has spent hundreds of millions of dollars in exploration and development in Australia, mostly associated with the Bass Strait oilfields but also in re-establishing an exploration position in northern and western Australian waters in partnership with Chevron and Shell.
-srbp-

Rio Tinto mans barricades

The Australian reports that, faced with increasing speculation that the company will be the subject of a takeover bid or takeover bids, Rio Tinto has instructed its financial advisor, Morgan Stanley, to prepare a defense strategy.
Rio has "refreshed" Morgan Stanley's existing mandate in order to be prepared for any possible bid, an industry source told The Australian. The company refused to comment. Morgan Stanley's global mining industry adviser in London is Peter Bacchus, who spearheaded WMC's takeover defence against Xstrata in 2005 when he was based in Australia with Citigroup.
-srbp-

Chevron to spend US$4.0 billion in Asia in '07

From the International Herald Tribune:
BANGKOK, Thailand: Chevron Corp. will invest about US$4 billion in Asia this year for petroleum exploration and production, a company executive said Friday.

"The company sees Asia as a very attractive place for investment for future growth," Steve Green, managing director of Chevron Asia South Ltd., told Dow Jones Newswires in an interview.
-srbp-

Post columnist slags Pipeline Canada

From Terence Corcoran's column in the Friday Post:

Having just sold off Petro-Canada, ending that particularly disastrous episode in national energy history, the Harper Conservatives are floating the idea of taking control of a new national project, Pipeline-Canada. As a Crown corporation, Pipeline- Canada would contract out construction of the $16.2-billion project to Trans-Canada Pipeline.

If this were to happen, rest assured that it would not really be an energy policy. It would be, above all, a native buy-off policy, a job-creation policy, a make-work program and a political strategy to secure votes and seats in Parliament.

But as an energy policy, the benefits are far from obvious. A government-funded pipeline megaproject would do nothing to help establish Canada as an "Energy Superpower." But it could set Canada up as an Energy Superloser. With a $16-billion construction cost, the latest estimate, it poses a monumental risk to the government.

Prediction: The National Post won't like the Newfoundland and Labrador energy plan whenever it is released, for many of the same reasons given in Corcoran's column.

The plan will likely call for the same high level of government intervention in energy projects Corcoran criticises in the Mackenzie pipeline story.

Even though there is no reason to believe it, some people will argue that the Post is part of a national plot to denounce and degrade the Newfoundland nation.

Other people will roll their eyes up in their heads at the foolishness of the conspiracy conclusion.

-srbp-

Leo 2s to cost $1.3 billion

New Leopard 2 tanks will cost the Government of Canada $1.3 billion for acquisition and lifecycle costs over 20 years according to defence minister Gordon O'Connor.

O'Connor revealed the new cost - double the amount previously announced - in testimony before a House of Commons committee on Thursday evening.

No reason has been given by the minister or his department for breaking with past practice and not announcing the total cost for the new acquisition. In previous purchases, purchase costs as well as lifecycle costs were provided at the same time.

-srbp-

Feds to buy into Mackenzie pipeline

The Government of Canada may buy an interest in the stalled Mackenzie Valley pipeline project in an effort to restart the venture, the National Post is reporting.
Oil companies backing the project said in March that the 1,222-kilometre pipeline linking gas fields in the Mackenzie Delta to Alberta's natural gas pipeline grid would cost $16.2-billion, up from $7.5-billion only two years ago, thanks to inflationary pressures that have beset energy projects around the world.

The consortium then asked Ottawa for huge tax concessions, but at a May 2 meeting in Calgary [Indian affairs and northern development minister Jim] Prentice slammed the door on the idea of subsidizing the oil companies. Imperial then said it would shut down the project, sources said.

Since then, Ottawa has not only resurrected a proposal to be a partner in the project, but is exploring taking control away from Imperial. The massive venture would provide a new source of natural gas for North America and be a springboard for development of the North. It would also open the prospective frontier to gas exploration.

Under the plan under consideration, Ottawa would buy out Imperial and its partners, Houston-based ConocoPhillips and international conglomerate Royal Dutch Shell PLC, by reimbursing them for costs already incurred on the project plus interest.

Imperial, Conoco and Shell are now formulating a plan to let the government into the project. A deal is expected to take several months to be finalized, sources said.
As Bond Papers noted last October in an article on a possible Lower Churchill loan guarantee, the federal government favours taking equity in projects rather than providing loan guarantees. Specifically, the October article linked to a Globe and Mail story on the possibility of the feds taking equity in the pipeline project.

-srbp-

Another view of Alberta

Greg Locke has an interesting post on the experience of moving to Alberta especially when it comes to Medicare coverage and worker's comp.

This looks like just the snippet of a bigger piece, or at least the start of something that should be bigger.
Here is something Newfoundland's migrant workers are not told about in the glowing upbeat presentations in hotel ballrooms used to sell them on going to work in Alberta. Particularly on industrial job sites where risk of injury is higher than other jobs and just which health care system covers you in case of illness or injury.

First you had better figure out if Newfoundland’s MCP covers you while working in Alberta or if Alberta resident’s provincial health care plan is in play for your particular situation. If you are not an Alberta resident, you may not be covered. Also, when and does your employers additional health care benefits kick in after you start work. A lot of the answers to these questions will depend on whether you are an Alberta resident or a “commuter” flying in to work in Alberta but still a resident of Newfoundland.
-srbp-

17 May 2007

Government promises accounting in cancer scandal

Premier Danny Williams said Thursday his administration had a "moral responsibility" to investigate whether patient health was compromised in the way a regional health authority in the province responded to news that certain breast cancer screening tests had produced incorrect results.

Upwards of 300 women were steered away from access to the drug Temoxafen, based on the results of faulty hormone receptor tests.

Former health minister Tom Osborne, now the province's justice minister, admitted he was briefed on the scope of the problem in December 2006.

At the time, health authorities only publicly disclosed changes in treatment to over a hundred women. Information that tests were incorrect for almost three times that number of women was not made public until this week, as a result of inquires for lawyers representing some of the women.

CBC reported Thursday that:
...Health Minister Ross Wiseman told the legislature Thursday that Eastern Health — which is largely funded by government, but operates at arm's length — was aware of the inaccurate test results more than a year ago.

However, he said, government officials were not notified until last August, and that the then health minister was not personally briefed until three months after that, in late November.

Health Minister Ross Wiseman said Eastern Health has known for more than a year about the error rate of hormone receptor testing.Health Minister Ross Wiseman said Eastern Health has known for more than a year about the error rate of hormone receptor testing.
(CBC)

Court documents reported earlier this week by CBC News showed an error rate of 42 per cent in a large set of samples, several times higher than a public estimates.

Wiseman said Eastern Health still may not know what went wrong with hormone receptor tests done between 1997 and 2005.
In the House of Assembly, Wiseman said that the health authority became away of a problem with testing in May 2005 and began a review of tests and procedures.

There was no explanation for the delays in briefing the health minister in 2006 or why the provincial health department concurred with legal advice that appears to have recommended partial disclosure of information.

The premier told the legislature today that his administration would conduct a thorough review of the matter bearing in mind the issues of liability and confidentiality.

-srbp-

Ahhh, but what if...

Funny how everyone is in a high dudgeon over Equalization.

Well, not e-v-e-r-y-o-n-e, as was painfully obvious at the Rally for Danny.

Despite the claims of the rally organizers, it looks like about 1500 people showed up on a fine and glorious Friday. None too impressive.

[Photo removed by request] For those who don't know, that was the non-partisan rally organized by DW's political supporters and attended by...well, ...his political supporters, like this gaggle of political staffers (left). That's the Premier's parliamentary assistant standing there in shades, likely keeping an eye on his promotion to cabinet.

Paul Oram's boss worked the crowd like it was a Tory rally and at an appropriate moment took a spot behind the podium to deliver what was likely seen by most to be the keynote. They even chanted "Danny! Danny! Danny"!

The whole thing featured a bunch of speakers, culminating in a few politicos, but the high point was surely DW himself, as would be fitting at a Rally for Danny.

There was Steve Kent, on behalf of municipalities in the province, but oddly enough an aspiring DW candidate, as Bond revealed last January. He'll formally announce tomorrow but Bond isn't expecting a thank you for saving everyone the six months of suspense.

There was Kevin Noble, a fine local actor who has lately taken to calling every VOCM talk show on the go to attack anyone saying anything about DW that might look like criticism. No small irony Noble spent a chunk of his professional time playing Joe Smallwood.

Noble could parlay the whole thing into a kind of eerie one man show in which he plays both premiers simultaneously. Challenge people to guess which one said what.

But I digress.

Then there was a police officer speaking on behalf of police officers.

Yes, at a political rally.

Odd that no one bothered to read RNC Act and regulations.

And there was The-Only-Locally-Owned-Newspaper editor who tried to out-speechify the best political speechifiers. He was evidently taking a break from fearlessly tracking down all the stuff that conforms to his political biases, at least when it comes to the crowd Up-a-long, to give speech which confirmed once again that he is a master at saying one thing and doing another:

"I'm here to say it's time for Newfoundland and Labrador to grow up."

Speak for yourself, there buddy. The rest of us are wondering why the nationalists seem to project personal shortcomings, like immaturity or a lack of self-esteem, onto an entire population.

They all shared the view of the guy singing a song in praise of the Fearless Leader and encouraging him to keep up the fight against the evil enemy of the moment.

Anyway...

All of that is just a way of reminding regular Bond Papers readers that the problems with Harper Equalization problems were well known.

And they were known some time ago.

Well known to everyone, it would seem except Fearless Leader who, during the last federal election, was supporting the guy he has now turned on. The year before that he was trashing Harper - carrying an even better version of the later promise - and sucking on to Paul Martin.

But by 2006, there was this piece for example, that noted the vagueness of the 2005/06 version of Harper's commitment.

Then there was this one that predicted a nasty Equalization fight was on the way.

In March, 2006 - a mere two months after Canada's New Crowd took office - the rest of the world knew what Danny Williams apparently still didn't realize in October. [or did he?]

Then there was the little piece on bullshit, which is the main fuel for most of the Canadian political system apparently.

And even in this seemingly unrelated piece, there is evidence of what Stephen Harper was proposing and how it would benefit the provincial government, at least in comparison to the system the Premier himself proposed originally.

As yes, if only more people read Bond Papers.

or just grew up.


-srbp-

But seriously, folks

This is a very good announcement.

The dairy industry is one of the real bright spots in our provincial agricultral industry and it goes largely unnoticed by most of us.

Somehow, though, I just couldn't help thinking of this old Monty Python sketch every time I heard the news story today.