SOL Day 53: Backdraft!

As Russell Wangersky points out, the provincial government isn't above arranging some photo ops for firefighting equipment that has already been in service all in aid of the Summer of Love 2007 undeclared election campaign.

Of course, it's also time for the quarterly polling by Corporate Research Associates so the photo ops and associated news releases come in extra handy. CRA will report its results around the time the writ for the official campaign is dropped.

If you do the math, you'll find about 84 news releases issued by the provincial government since August 1, along with some 14 media advisories of minister's attending this festival or making that announcement. overall, the releases and advisories are running about the same as last year - they always boost the good news stuff during polling season - but this year the whole little huckster game of goosing the polls seems to be taking an intensity that smacks of desperation.

Like the environment minister opening an additional 25 campsites at Butterpot provincial park on August 14, even though the season opened on the May 24th weekend. That sort of staged event just screams out as a staged political event.

Polling season plus the Summer of Love are also as good an explanation as any for the bizarre events this past week with Danny Williams chastising one of his candidates for doing what all the rest have been doing all along: telling people it's imperative to have their member sitting on the government side. Dennis Normore's only mistake: he finished off the "or else" part of the implicit threat.

The premier obviously felt a bit sheepish about having that sort of target out there in the middle of polling season. The opposition and the media would jump on it quickly, as they did.

Meanwhile, expect that the old chestnut of local politics - the threat of dirt roads, no schools and reversion to the honey wagon unless the district goes for the winning party - will still find its way into this, that, or another political conversation. The candidates making the pitch will just be sure to keep it off the airwaves and off the newspaper pages.

At least, until polling season is over.

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Far from that madding crowd

Presidents in democracies are hemmed in by legislative bodies. Under our present system, whenever there is a majority government in Ottawa, the prime minister is hemmed in by nothing whatsoever. Except on paper, executive powers have been seized from the cabinet, and legislative powers have been removed from the House, all arrogated unto the PM and his faceless PMO in a gradual bloodless coup — so much so that it has become trite political science to say that these days in Canada we elect a “benign” dictator for four years.

There is but one saving grace that may control somewhat the little Napoleons at the top. Voters have taken a fancy to electing minority governments and, according to the polls, intend to do the same next election. Thank God for the wisdom of the motley crowd.

Something suggests Bill might say something decidedly different about the same situation as it relates to his former employer and rellow Rhodes alumnus.

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The Power of Blogs

In which some people discover the reality, namely that bloggers are not immune to libel and slander laws and in which we discover the potential that some other people - including the rich and powerful - might seek to impose a form of chill by simply launching lawsuits claiming defamation.

Then there's Michael Geist's blog. Geist is a law professor specializing in Internet issues. He's got a youtube link to a piece from The National on the issue. There are other posts on the Internet and free speech issues. geist is being sued himself, incidentally, for doing nothing more complicated than including in a blogroll a link to a site allegedly containing defamatory comments.

The Toronto Transit Commission has threatened legal action over a blog posting.

Ditto for a newspaper that prides itself on being locally owned and telling it like it is.

And of course, there's the Premier's famous melt-down. Oddly enough, by falsely accusing your humble e-scribbler of attempting "to disparage the reputations of people", the Premier was effectively doing the thing he claimed to be opposing.

Go figure.

The issue of defamation is a potent one for any form of communication, but especially for the online community where many of the rules and conventions of society appear to be ignored by so many. There are aspects of the Internet that seriously challenge some of the conventions society has evolved to permit free speech. Those will require some careful consideration and some serious thought before anyone rushes to write new laws.

At the same time, the notion of free speech apparently causes some people concern simply because it exists. The content is not as important to these people so much as the fact that comments are made publicly which are contrary to whatever turns out to be the official dogma of the moment.

Take for example, that there are some people out there who have a great deal of difficulty with the things written here from time to time. The comments include the now infamous "I am all for free speech but..." line used by a surprisingly large number of people to claims that your humble e-scribe ought to be thrown in jail for something they deem as "treason" to actual threats of violence.

Blogs can be a powerful medium, so powerful in fact that some people spend a heck of a lot of time trying to figure out how to shut them down. As the links above suggest, the future of blogging in Canada might wind up being a very hot topic this fall.

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The blower of pogs

For your amusement on this friday evening in mid-August ponder the bizarre world in which some people live.

When you can't deal with the substance of an argument, invent a conspiracy. Better still, share the conspiracy among others who have difficulty dealing with the substance of an issue.

or impose censorship.

Any blogger worth his or her salt recognizes a censor when they see one. Some even recognize the censor in themselves, but then promise to rationalize their efforts to stifle genuine free speech.

It's especially easy to spot a censor. They utter lines like "I am all for free speech but...". Consider the truly odd thing when theose words are written by the blogger himself. (The line is in the comment the guy wrote to himself.)

Bonus points for anyone who can figure out why this particular little corner of cyberspace went from telling people - like your humble e-scribbler - who complained about the vicious and libelous anony-slagging in the comments section to get stuffed, to imposing censorship so that only people known to the blog writer (and complete with hidden profiles) can post comments only after they have been vetted by said pseudonymic blog writer.

For those not familiar with the blogs linked above, note that the individuals involved run blogs that have very similar content and tend to comment on each others blogs (when they aren't tracking the great global conspiracy.

Intellectual incest is best, apparently.

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The essence of blogging: Part Two

Thought.

What a concept.

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The essence of blogging

The essence of blogging may be found in the reaction blogs garner from some quarters.

The essence of blogging may be found among print columnists who still use the word "blogosphere", as if opinion and information on the Internet existed in some bizarre alternate universe where a moron can work as a safety officer at a nuclear power plant and Mom has blue hair that even Ted Geisel might find garish.

On this summer Friday, consider the power of the words offered by a columnist from Toronto's national newspaper, one Rick Salutin, doing less to defend the cerebral ruminations of Liberal leadership hopeful Mike Ignatieff from a blogger's critique, than to lament the impact of blogs on Salutin's own job.

David Rees' column on Huffington Post, while written in the vernacular of the Internet user, is far from the simplistic characterization of it offered by Salutin. Rees' comments are a long way from the Duff-addled belchings Barney might post from the barstool at Moe's, which incidentally, now boasts wireless access.

[One advantage of the Internet versus the paper and ink versuion of the Grope is that one is not trapped rading Salutin. Rather, one may search and find Rees' opinion piece before going any further with Salutin's piece. But I digress.]

Ignore Salutin's pretentious argument about "common sense" versus "anti-respect".

That's not what Salutin is on about.

Nope.

What Rees put up Salutin's nose has nothing to do with Ignatieff either.

Rather Salutin's column is all about the simple truth that leads some print columnists to dislike blogs: theirs is no longer the only voice out there offering opinions on subjects the writer may know little about.

They also are not bound to follow the Globe style manual, either, but that is a subject for another post.

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History repeating itself

In 2005/2006, economist Wade Locke projected provincial revenues from Hebron using the existing royalty regime. He assumed an average price per barrel of oil of US$50 and based the calculation on the 500 million barrels in the Hebron field alone.

Ben Nevis and West Ben Nevis with their 250 million barrels weren't included in the last round of talks.

Locke put the estimate at $8.0 to $10.0 billion over the 20 year lifespan of the project.

Let's assume an average price for oil of US$70 per barrel. That would add about 40% to the original projection. In other words, without an "equity" stake or superroyalties, a Hebron deal signed today under the existing royalty regime would generate $11.2 to $14 billion for the provincial treasury. It would also oull the better part of the estimated $3.0 to $5.0 billion construction costs into the province as well since the biggest part of the fabrication - the concrete base for the platform - would be built in Newfoundland.

That's right. Just by changing the numbers used in the calculation, the provincial government appears to make more money. Danny Williams could accept the January 26, 2006 frmaework agreement, forget equity and supperroyalties and still look like a giant winner.

Essentially that's what happened between the $1.4 billion upfront cash offer from Ottawa on offshore handouts and the $2.0 billion Danny Williams accepted in January 2005.

The feds just assumed a different average price per barrel of oil. The number went up by $600,000 and Danny Williams settled for a deal that was fundamentally the same one he rejected three months earlier. In fact, in a media interview in January 2005, Danny Williams admitted the whole thing came down to a discussion of what the up front cash - the quantum - would be.

What exactly are the odds that might happen on Hebron, the second time around?

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Most expensive uni in Canada

So much for finance minister Tom Marshall's insistance that making a Grenfell College a university will have only marginal cost implications.

So much too, for his claim that those outside Corner Brook won't notice the difference. Who does Marshall think will be subsidizing his decision on grenfell, done for entirely political reasons and without a comprehensive plan?

Every taxpayer in the province that's who.

Oh yes, and for those who don't think the objective for Grenfell was established before the consultants were hired to provided a smokescreen to cover cover a decision already taken - without any plan or evidence to back it up - there's this great quote from Premier Danny Williams:

"At the end of the day, Grenfell will have autonomy," Williams told CBC News recently. "Now, whether that means complete, separate independence from Memorial, if that's not the right way to go, then we'll do a hybrid that works for everybody."

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The Hebron Gambit

Listen to what Premier Danny Williams told reports in a scrum on Saturday.

Then consider these observations on resumption of Hebron talks:

1. A second failure would be politically deadly.

Let's start by recognizing that the collapse of the Hebron talks was a big failure for Danny Williams' political reputation. He's the guy who described himself as being about job creation and negotiation when he ran for office in 2003. That was his self-image so the failure of a major negotiation was a deeply felt wound.

It was so deeply felt, in fact, that Williams personally lambasted the local oil industry organization for do nothing more than encouraging both sides to get back to the table and cut a deal. His friends and allies did just as much and more in private to shut down any criticism of Williams.

His remarks were childish - calling NOIA "annoya", for example - and that in itself revealed the depth of the personal setback the Hebron failure was.

Announcement of renewed talks have brought with them renewed and heightened expectations of success. [You can get a real sense of how high those expectations are in a 10 minute radio interview [ram audio file] at the Morning Show website.

The first failure was costly enough.

A second failure could be politically deadly for Danny Williams.

2. Danny needs the cash.

It's not about Hebron so much as Hebron funding the Lower Churchill.

In itself, Hebron would have been a major milestone in offshore oil and gas development. As economist Wade Locke said at the time, development of the 500-odd million barrels from the Hebron field, using the existing royalty regime would have produced between $8.0 and $10.0 billion in provincial royalties over the anticipated 20 year lifespan of the project.

3. Higher prices = greater competition.

Danny needs a deal. The oil companies don't.

Higher oil prices have made Hebron somewhat more attractive, but global competition for scarce development dollars is even stiffer now than it was 18 months ago. Check Bond Papers from a year ago and you'll get some idea of just how higher prices have changed the global environment.

Danny Williams has been working hard to undo the mess created in April 2006 because Hebron isn't the only game in town. The oil companies have plenty of places to spend their development cash. Danny Williams doesn't have the kind of moxie to change the simple laws of global oil economics, no matter what some people think.

As much as he has tried to portray Hebron as a great deal or convince people that he has some power to force a development, the simple truth is he doesn't.

The simple fact is, the longer Hebron goes undeveloped, the less likely it is the project will ever go ahead.

4. Danny will have to compromise.

But compromise is another failure, in the Danny Williams lexicon.

Offal News noted a change in Danny Williams' language on the provincial position in negotiations.

Maybe the change is important.

Maybe it isn't.

The core problem with Danny Williams' stance to date has been his unwillingness to compromise or appear to compromise, even though comprise is essential in all negotiations.

Up to this past weekend, Williams has been adamant on his bottom line for any deal. Last year he had some wiggle room. This year, in the wake of the last failure everyone knows exactly what Danny Williams' demands are.

It's the same position he had when talks collapsed:

- A Hebron deal must produce substantially better royalties. That's the idea of so-called super-royalties. Essentially, that's a premium paid on any barrel of oil sold beyond a benchmark number, like US$50.

- The provincial government must get 4.9% "equity", i.e. a seat at the project table with cash attached.

Unfortunately for Williams, any deal will require a very visible compromise of some sort on his part. Last year, he could have explained away any compromises. Having attacked the oil companies, tried to force Andy Wells onto the offshore board in order to force a development and having insisted he would never buckle, any compromise will be seen for what it is: Danny Williams doing something other than what he promised.

Sure, the open line plants will read their scripts and praise any deal he delivers. The local oil patch will be thankful for a settlement.

Underneath it all though, people will wonder what all the racket was about in the first place.

5. Fool me twice.

Point to watch out for: the major difference in the 2005 offshore deal and the version offered in October 2004 was a change in the average price of oil used to calculate the up-front payment.

Watch for the same sleight of hand this time. Wade Locke based his US$8.0 to $10.0 billion royalty estimate on an average price of oil of US$50/barrel. Assume oil at a higher rate and whatever deal Williams delivers - if he delivers one at all - might look to be more lucrative than it actually is.

6. Shortage of workers means shortage of work.

In the last round of negotiations, the provincial government insisted that any work that could be done in Newfoundland and Labrador had to be done there or the companies would pay a penalty. Reportedly, the companies noted that Long Harbour plus the Lower Churchill would outstrip the local labour and engineering pool making it almost impossible to complete Hebron using only local resources.

Cancellation of Hebron last year meant that workers who would have started work on Hebron have already headed west to the higher wages of Alberta. That made the predicted situation worse, not better and therefore will make it harder for the province to stick with that bargaining point.

Expect that provincial demand to drop off the table or for Hebron to get preference over the Lower Churchill. otherwise, the cost of the project will be forced up.

7. How would Danny pay for the "equity" position?

A question that has never been answered. Odds are he will simply defer any revenues until the purchase price has been paid. Again, people should wonder why the project was delayed for the better part of two years for no significant cash or other benefits.

8. What's the "equity" thing all about and what's it worth?

Asked and answered in July, by Bond.

9. The conflict of interest remains.

In last Saturday's scrum, Danny Williams said that Hydro boss Ed martin is heading the provincial negotiating team.

That means the fundamental conflict of interest Martin represents remains clearly in place. The conflict of interest - the exact opposite of the Norwegian model the Premier claims to be following - may continue to affect negotiations adversely.

10. The last minute gamble with the gambit

There was a workable agreement to develop Hebron on January 26, 2006. Then Danny Williams apparently tossed new demands on the table. Let's hope that doesn't happen again.

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The absence of a strategy is not a strategy

Budgetting to spend every nickel that comes in, while putting token amounts toward reducing the highest per capita debt in the country isn't a fiscal plan, it's a political plan.

Spending public money may bring political success, but financially, it's likely to be a disaster.

The provincial government's current "strategy" is to boost public spending at twice the rate of inflation or more.

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Cabinet Shuffle: a summer yawner

O'Connor's out of defence and moves to national revenue.

Peter Mackay, DDS moves into the minister's suite at Disneyland on the Rideau. Little will change, except Peter's efforts to romance his American counterpart - or appear to - will fall flat.

Bev Oda manages to find a portfolio even less taxing than Heritage.

Diane Ablonczy finally gets called from the benches, but to a nondescript portfolio.

All in all, though, there's nothing in this latest cabinet shuffle to reinvigorate a party that had a plan to govern for a year and wound up accomplishing all of its meagre objectives in that span of time.

The same cabinet as the one before - that's basically what it is - will undoubtedly continue to vamp until the Prime Minister figures out how come his game theorist buddies never gamed this scenario.

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A teapot for the probos...probisc...nose

A truly creative pitch for a truly creative product.

Pet rocks are child's play compared to persuading grown men and women to shove porcelain up their nostrils in a bid for better proboscal health.

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The newest newspaper trend?

Outsourced editting.

Already being used in ireland, outsourcing the editors job now hits the New Zealand Herald.

Update 14 Aug 07: Offal News picks up the story and takes it a step further with news of one California newspaper that has outsourced reporting on local news to Mumbai and Bangalore.

And here I thought Sheena of the Comments section was just kidding.

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The Summer of Flood

Not to be outdone, Quebec premier Jean Charest is getting in on the flood recovery thing, promising to call out the army to help repair damage from a flood in the Saguenay region.

If the troops roll in, who foots the bill: Ottawa or Quebec City?

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SOL Day 46: Other people's money

The public sector must be the engine of votes.

Danny Williams is promising to reward public sector employees - presumably with hefty pay hikes - after the next election.

It's easy to be generous when you use other people's money.

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Hebron: be cautious

News that Hebron talks are back on should be greeted with an abundance of healthy caution if not outright scepticism.

For one thing, take a look at the language used by the provincial government, through the Premier's spokeswoman, versus comments from the oil companies.

We'll take a more detailed look at the whole issue over the next couple of days, but for now let's just leave it as a matter of caution.

And while you are starting to think of the risks and the consequences, take note of a comment made by CBC's David Cochrane [Realplayer video file] about the linkage between Hebron and the Lower Churchill.

Then take a gander at Bond Papers before the collapse of Hebron talks:

More to the point though, Williams needs the cash that will flow from development heading into the next election, likely his last. Money from Hebron can be used by Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro to help develop Williams' glory piece, Lower Churchill development, as a "go-it-alone' project.

Without Hebron cash, Williams will be forced to take the Ontario and Quebec proposal. That circumstance would demolish the carefully built facade of the resurgent and vibrant Newfoundland and Labrador which thrives under his leadership and which can tackle any project by itself, of course with Danny in charge. The illusive and sometimes illusory Lower Churchill project would become, in Danny's view, the antidote to the supposed failure of the Upper Churchill development if it is built with as little outside help as possible. With that project under his belt and with a clean sweep of the provincial legislature's seats in late 2007, Williams will head off to his next goal. Maybe Ottawa has been singing the same siren call to Williams it has sung to at least one other premier.

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Beating yourself to the punch

So how is it Danny Williams started on a national energy plan two years after starting the provincial one and he still finished the national one first?

Does anyone else find that just a wee bit unusual?

It's not like there wasn't already seven years work invested in the provincial plan or anything.

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In defence of blogs

Who'd-a-thunk it?

The bastion of the mainstream print media in Newfoundland and Labrador leaps to the defence of blogs, specifically the political blogs in the province.

Well, parts of it were more like damning with faint praise.

And those were the parts that tried to discuss blogs generally while really talking about specific types of blogs and not really getting it right anyways.

Ah well, let's save the discussion of blogs and the conventional news media for another post.

For now, let's just note that this editorial - as thankful as bloggers are to see it - was really about an ongoing pissing match between the Telegram and an apparently very frustrated former Telegram reporter who now works cranking out another newspaper from offices on Harbour Drive.

Still, it's fun to read the two offering views on new media. It almost makes for a Sally Field at the Oscars kinda moment.

Well, not exactly.

But you get the idea.

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Newfoundland and the Great War: the beginnings

On August 7, 1914, the Newfoundland cabinet met at Government House in an extraordinary session prompted by the outbreak of war with Germany on August 4.

Britain was at war and while the Dominion of Newfoundland was also at war, the shape and character of its participation was entirely a matter for the Newfoundland government to decide.

An outline defence scheme had been developed in 1907 calling for creation of a local militia based on the local sectarian cadet corps and non-sectarian groups like the Legion of Frontiersmen. The original version of the idea dated from the Boer War, but an earlier Newfoundland government had declined participation in that conflict.

In these warm days of summer, it is hard to imagine that 93 years ago our ancestors were embroiled in what would become known as the First World War.

For Newfoundlanders and Labradorians, Beaumont Hamel - or rather the popular imagining of it - has been seared into many a brain, but little attention is paid either by scholars or by the wider public to Newfoundland and Labrador in the Great War.

Space doesn't permit a detailed discussion here, but it is useful to just look back at some key dates.

Britain issued a general warning to the colonies and Dominions on July 25, ordering that they adopt the precautionary stage of the war plan that each had prepared after 1907. Draft orders in council lay waiting - in Newfoundland, in the floor safe of the Colonial Undersecretary - for everything from the imposition of censorship to rationing. All that needed to be filled in on each order was the date and the name of the enemy country.

In Newfoundland, the government directed a paramilitary group called the Legion of Frontiersmen to guard important government buildings. They took up posts at the Waldegrave Battery on the south side of St. John's harbour, at the telegraph station at Admiralty House in what would become Mount Pearl, and at the main post office on the west end of Water Street in St. John's.

When cabinet met that warm summer's night, they had in their hands letters from the heads of each of the sectarian cadet corps offering their members and former members to form a local volunteer contingent for overseas service. Popular opinion lay solidly behind the raising of a volunteer unit, especially among the St. John's establishment. Volunteers from the sectarian youth groups was actually part of the government's defence scheme, so the decision was relatively simple.

Cabinet decided to offer them, along with volunteers of the local Royal Navy reserve division. The government sent their offer to London through the Governor in a telegram sent on August 8.  They offered the sailors from the Royal Naval Reserve Division the Newfoundland government created in 1902 as their defence force.

In addition,  the government offered to raise 500 volunteers out of the local paramilitary brigades run by the churches. This was consistent with government policy in the 1907 defence scheme.  The government supplied the boys brigades - as they were known in Britain - with obsolete rifles, slings, and bayonets purchased from the British Government.

The British wasted no time accepting the offer of soldiers for the land war, doing so by telegram the next day. They advised that further instructions would follow about the sailors. In the event, the sailors were the first to leave Newfoundland. They formed part of the crew of HMCS Niobe, a vessel many had sailed on before during their annual training cruises after the local reserve division was organized during the Bond administration. As an aside, according to some accounts, Sir Robert hand-picked the men who took part in the first training cruise in 1900, their passage on the railway paid for by the Newfoundland government all the way to St. John's where they embarked on a Royal Naval cruiser of the North American squadron.

There is more to the story of the opening days of the Great War, but for now, that gets us quickly up to a fateful decision. Almost a century later, the details have largely been forgotten, but the Great War proved to have a lasting effect on Newfoundland society.

But that fateful decision, one that led to Gallipoli, Beaumont Hamel and Monchy Le Preux was taken by a cabinet made up entirely of elected Newfoundlanders when they met 93 years ago today.

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Revised August 2019

Security concerns

Security for the Premier and his family (including the family home) is the responsibility of the Royal Newfoundland Constabulary.

If it isn't currently, it used to be not so very long ago and the police officers assigned to the detail are as professional and capable as any police officers anywhere.

So why exactly is the Premier considering hiring security guards, presumably out of his own pocket, after yet another incident?

We don't need to know the details; details of the Premier's security arrangements are not a matter that should ever be discussed publicly.

However, we should all be concerned about a situation involving the Premier's security which, as the Premier himself notes, is not the first time someone has gained entry to his home.

In any event, no private security firms - if that's what the Premier was driving at - should be involved in providing physical security to the Premier or any other public official. That's why we have the Royal Newfoundland Constabulary and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police VIP details.

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